ASSESSING BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS OF LAND USE POLICIES IN BRAZIL AND CONGO BASIN
27/06/2017
Shaenandhoa García-Rangel, Andy Arnell, Will Simonson and Val Kapos
27/06/2017
MODELLING LAND USE CHANGE AND ITS EFFECTS
18/04/2017ASSESSING BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS OF LAND USE POLICIES IN BRAZIL AND CONGO BASIN
Future land use & cover
Production &
trade patternsPopulation
Needs
Preferences
Income
18 crops
5 forestry
products
6 livestock
commodities
Policy & Context
(Moderators)
Biodiversity
Emissions
Production
BrazilMeasures to reduce
deforestation
including the Forest
Code
Congo Basin Land use scenarios
GLOBIOM: an economic land use model (IIASA)
27/06/2017
Biodiversity Commitments
Brazil Congo Basin
18/04/2017ASSESSING BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS OF LAND USE POLICIES IN BRAZIL AND CONGO BASIN
• CBD Aichi Biodiversity Targets through National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan:
o National Target 5: on reducing rate of loss of native habitats byat least 50% cf 2009
o National Target 12: on reducing extinction risk and improvingconservation status of threatened species
o National Target 15: on enhancing ecosystem resilience andcontribution of biodiversity to carbon stock though theconservation and restoration actions… as a contribution toclimate change mitigation and adaptation
• Reducing ecosystem vulnerability –National Adaptation Plan
• National REDD+ Strategy & REDD+Safeguards
• CBD Aichi Biodiversity Targets
through National Biodiversity
Strategies
• Protect Great Apes in the Kinshasa
declaration
• Managing Forests Sustainably –
Regional Convergence Plan
• National REDD+ Strategy & REDD+
Safeguards
27/06/2017
BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS OF LAND USE POLICIES
18/04/2017ASSESSING BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS OF LAND USE POLICIES IN BRAZIL AND CONGO BASIN
• Ecosystem types
• Species
• Priority areas
• Biodiversity models
LocationsIndividual
species
Protected
areas
National
importance
Regional/Global
relevance
Broad
categoriesTransitions
Processes Impacts
Species
groups
27/06/2017
IMPACTS OF LAND USE POLICIES ON ECOSYSTEM TYPES
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
BAU FC FCnoSFA FCnoCRA
Mha
Mature Managed Regenerating
Business as usual FC* FCnoSFA* FCnoCRA*
18/04/2017ASSESSING BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS OF LAND USE POLICIES IN BRAZIL AND CONGO BASIN
• Species vary between ecosystem types
• Even within broad categories
• An example from Brazil
Increase in total forest area can come as decrease in mature forest
So options that lead to more forest restoration may not always be good for
biodiversity
Mature
forest
Regenerating
forest
*FC Full Forest Code *FCnoSFA FC no Amnesty *FCnoCRA FC no Quotas
27/06/2017
IMPACTS OF LAND USE POLICIES ON SPECIES
@Ollivier Gerard/CIFOR
@Ricardo Cabrera Letelier/www.flickr.com
18/04/2017ASSESSING BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS OF LAND USE POLICIES IN BRAZIL AND CONGO BASIN
Cameroon
Republic of
Congo
Democratic
Republic of
Congo
Central African
Republic
Gabon
Equatorial
Guinea
• IUCN Red List species-ranges
• Spatial variability in the impact across Great Ape habitat
• Substantial habitat loss at the Western and Eastern edge of the distribution
27/06/2017
IMPACTS OF LAND USE POLICIES ON SPECIES
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Jaguar (Pantheraonca)
Sun parakeet(Aratingasolstitialis)
Brazilian three-banded armadillo
(Tolypeutestricinctus)
Maned wolf(Chrysocyonbrachyurus)
Golden-belliedcapuchin (Cebusxanthosternos)
Chestnut-belliedguan (Penelope
ochrogaster)
Perc
enta
ge o
f habitat
lost
(2010-2
05
0)
BAU FC FCnoCRA
18/04/2017ASSESSING BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS OF LAND USE POLICIES IN BRAZIL AND CONGO BASIN
Business as usual FC* FCnoCRA*
BRAZIL
IUCN Red List species-ranges
*FC Full Forest
*FCnoCRA FC no Quotas
27/06/2017
18/04/2017ASSESSING BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS OF LAND USE POLICIES IN BRAZIL AND CONGO BASIN
IMPACTS OF LAND USE POLICIES ON PRIORITY AREAS
-30,00
-25,00
-20,00
-15,00
-10,00
-5,00
0,00
5,00
10,00
15,00
IDC
No
IDC
Am
azo
n
IDC
Bra
zil
FC
IDC
No
IDC
Am
azo
n
IDC
Bra
zil
FC
IDC
No
IDC
Am
azo
n
IDC
Bra
zil
FC
IDC
No
IDC
Am
azo
n
IDC
Bra
zil
FC
All biomes Amazon Caatinga Cerrado
Perc
en
tage
of pri
ori
ty a
rea
losin
g o
r ga
inin
g lan
d c
over
Mature forest Other natural land Regenerating forest
No ID
* A
tlantic F
No ID
* A
mazon
NoF
C
FC
*
No ID
* A
tlantic F
No ID
* A
mazon
NoF
C
FC
*
No ID
* A
tlantic F
No ID
* A
mazon
NoF
C
FC
*
No ID
* A
tlantic F
No ID
* A
mazon
NoF
C
FC
*
*ID Illegal Deforestation
*FC Forest Code
27/06/2017
Impact Modelling Process Modelling
18/04/2017ASSESSING BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS OF LAND USE POLICIES IN BRAZIL AND CONGO BASIN
Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In
Changing Terrestrial Systems
• A purpose-built database of biodiversity
• Information on human pressures
• Impact of land use change on biodiversity
Change in biodiversity indices:
• Abundance
• Species Richness
• Biodiversity Intactness Index
An entirely new approach to modelling ecosystems
and biodiversity
• It is based on Net Primary Productivity and
interactions between trophic levels
• Theoretically-based, high-resolution
It could help to inform about:
• Impacts of decisions on biodiversity and ecosystem
services
• Trajectories of biodiversity change under scenarios
of human development
27/06/2017
CONCLUSIONS
Understanding the potential impacts of policy choices is crucial to
meeting commitments on biodiversity
Land use change modelling provides a useful way to approach this
and shows a range of impacts – degradation and restoration are key
pieces of this puzzle not yet well addressed
Biodiversity impacts can be assessed in several ways
definitions are critical
discussions with stakeholders are essential to pin these down and to identify
the most useful and relevant assessment approaches
18/04/2017ASSESSING BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS OF LAND USE POLICIES IN BRAZIL AND CONGO BASIN
UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre
SHAENANDHOA GARCÍA-
RANGEL
Programme Officer
219 Huntingdon Road,Cambridge, CB3 0DL
www.unep-wcmc.org
@unepwcmc