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ASSESSING BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS OF LAND USE POLICIES IN BRAZIL AND CONGO BASIN

27/06/2017

Shaenandhoa García-Rangel, Andy Arnell, Will Simonson and Val Kapos

27/06/2017

MODELLING LAND USE CHANGE AND ITS EFFECTS

18/04/2017ASSESSING BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS OF LAND USE POLICIES IN BRAZIL AND CONGO BASIN

Future land use & cover

Production &

trade patternsPopulation

Needs

Preferences

Income

18 crops

5 forestry

products

6 livestock

commodities

Policy & Context

(Moderators)

Biodiversity

Emissions

Production

BrazilMeasures to reduce

deforestation

including the Forest

Code

Congo Basin Land use scenarios

GLOBIOM: an economic land use model (IIASA)

27/06/2017

Biodiversity Commitments

Brazil Congo Basin


• CBD Aichi Biodiversity Targets through National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan:

o National Target 5: on reducing rate of loss of native habitats byat least 50% cf 2009

o National Target 12: on reducing extinction risk and improvingconservation status of threatened species

o National Target 15: on enhancing ecosystem resilience andcontribution of biodiversity to carbon stock though theconservation and restoration actions… as a contribution toclimate change mitigation and adaptation

• Reducing ecosystem vulnerability –National Adaptation Plan

• National REDD+ Strategy & REDD+Safeguards

• CBD Aichi Biodiversity Targets

through National Biodiversity

Strategies

• Protect Great Apes in the Kinshasa

declaration

• Managing Forests Sustainably –

Regional Convergence Plan

• National REDD+ Strategy & REDD+

Safeguards

27/06/2017

BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS OF LAND USE POLICIES


• Ecosystem types

• Species

• Priority areas

• Biodiversity models

LocationsIndividual

species

Protected

areas

National

importance

Regional/Global

relevance

Broad

categoriesTransitions

Processes Impacts

Species

groups

27/06/2017

IMPACTS OF LAND USE POLICIES ON ECOSYSTEM TYPES

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

BAU FC FCnoSFA FCnoCRA

Mha

Mature Managed Regenerating

Business as usual FC* FCnoSFA* FCnoCRA*


• Species vary between ecosystem types

• Even within broad categories

• An example from Brazil

Increase in total forest area can come as decrease in mature forest

So options that lead to more forest restoration may not always be good for

biodiversity

Mature

forest

Regenerating

forest

*FC Full Forest Code *FCnoSFA FC no Amnesty *FCnoCRA FC no Quotas

27/06/2017

IMPACTS OF LAND USE POLICIES ON SPECIES

@Ollivier Gerard/CIFOR

@Ricardo Cabrera Letelier/www.flickr.com


Cameroon

Republic of

Congo

Democratic

Republic of

Congo

Central African

Republic

Gabon

Equatorial

Guinea

• IUCN Red List species-ranges

• Spatial variability in the impact across Great Ape habitat

• Substantial habitat loss at the Western and Eastern edge of the distribution

27/06/2017

IMPACTS OF LAND USE POLICIES ON SPECIES

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Jaguar (Pantheraonca)

Sun parakeet(Aratingasolstitialis)

Brazilian three-banded armadillo

(Tolypeutestricinctus)

Maned wolf(Chrysocyonbrachyurus)

Golden-belliedcapuchin (Cebusxanthosternos)

Chestnut-belliedguan (Penelope

ochrogaster)

Perc

enta

ge o

f habitat

lost

(2010-2

05

0)

BAU FC FCnoCRA


Business as usual FC* FCnoCRA*

BRAZIL

IUCN Red List species-ranges

*FC Full Forest

*FCnoCRA FC no Quotas

27/06/2017


IMPACTS OF LAND USE POLICIES ON PRIORITY AREAS

-30,00

-25,00

-20,00

-15,00

-10,00

-5,00

0,00

5,00

10,00

15,00

IDC

No

IDC

Am

azo

n

IDC

Bra

zil

FC

IDC

No

IDC

Am

azo

n

IDC

Bra

zil

FC

IDC

No

IDC

Am

azo

n

IDC

Bra

zil

FC

IDC

No

IDC

Am

azo

n

IDC

Bra

zil

FC

All biomes Amazon Caatinga Cerrado

Perc

en

tage

of pri

ori

ty a

rea

losin

g o

r ga

inin

g lan

d c

over

Mature forest Other natural land Regenerating forest

No ID

* A

tlantic F

No ID

* A

mazon

NoF

C

FC

*

No ID

* A

tlantic F

No ID

* A

mazon

NoF

C

FC

*

No ID

* A

tlantic F

No ID

* A

mazon

NoF

C

FC

*

No ID

* A

tlantic F

No ID

* A

mazon

NoF

C

FC

*

*ID Illegal Deforestation

*FC Forest Code

27/06/2017

Impact Modelling Process Modelling


Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In

Changing Terrestrial Systems

• A purpose-built database of biodiversity

• Information on human pressures

• Impact of land use change on biodiversity

Change in biodiversity indices:

• Abundance

• Species Richness

• Biodiversity Intactness Index

An entirely new approach to modelling ecosystems

and biodiversity

• It is based on Net Primary Productivity and

interactions between trophic levels

• Theoretically-based, high-resolution

It could help to inform about:

• Impacts of decisions on biodiversity and ecosystem

services

• Trajectories of biodiversity change under scenarios

of human development

27/06/2017

CONCLUSIONS

Understanding the potential impacts of policy choices is crucial to

meeting commitments on biodiversity

Land use change modelling provides a useful way to approach this

and shows a range of impacts – degradation and restoration are key

pieces of this puzzle not yet well addressed

Biodiversity impacts can be assessed in several ways

definitions are critical

discussions with stakeholders are essential to pin these down and to identify

the most useful and relevant assessment approaches


UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre

SHAENANDHOA GARCÍA-

RANGEL

Programme Officer

[email protected]

219 Huntingdon Road,Cambridge, CB3 0DL

www.unep-wcmc.org

@unepwcmc

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