Download - Arizona Corporation Commission
Arizona Corporation Commission
Summer Peak 2000Preparedness Workshop
May 17, 20009
5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop
2
Agenda
Arizona Transmission Provider Preparedness
– Arizona Public Service Company– Salt River Project– Tucson Electric Power– Western Area Power Administration– Arizona Electric Power Cooperative
Regional Supply and Delivery Consideration
5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop
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Regional Supply & Delivery
A Western Interconnection Perspective
– WSCC– NWPPC– CEC/CAISO– Desert Southwest
Is a Regional Response Need ?
Reference: NERC Reliability Assessment 1998-2007
5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop
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Non-Coincident Peak Demand Reserve Margins1993-1998
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Pe
rce
nt
WSCC
California
Southwest
EstimatedActual
History of Reserve Margins
Per Dan Nix of CEC 5/17/00
5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop
6
CEC: Is There a Problem?
The Summer of 1998– Record High Temperatures throughout West– Record High Electricity Demand– Four Stage Two Emergency Alerts in CA
The Summer of 1999– Cool Summer… But– Record High Electricity Demand
Per Dan Nix of CEC 5/17/00
5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop
7
Daily Peak Loads
California ISO Control AreaJune 1998 - October 1999
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
MW
August 3, 199844,927 MW
Summer of 1998
July 12, 199945,884 MW
Summer of 1999
CA ISO Daily Peak Load
Per Dan Nix of CEC 5/17/00
5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop
8
California ISO Load Duration
34000
36000
38000
40000
42000
44000
46000
48000
1
13
25
37
49
61
73
85
97
10
9
12
1
13
3
14
5
15
7
16
9
18
1
19
3
Top 200 Hours
Lo
ad
, MW
LDC 1998 LDC 1999
Per Dan Nix of CEC 5/17/00
5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop
9
CAL ISO Peak Demand Load Resource Balance at 7% Operating Reserve
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
65000
2000 2001 2002 2003
Me
ga
wa
tts
Interruptible
Imports*
Firm Trans.
Pow erplants
Existing *
Imports* additional amounts are available in nominal and 1:5 scenarios, but not necessarily in 1:40 scenario
Existing Resources*This number is derived from base installed resources, less outages or43,856 - 2,572 = 41,104
Nominal Peak Demand
1 in 5 year Demand
1 in 40 year Demand
Resources
California ISO Forecast
Per Dan Nix of CEC 5/17/00
5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop
10
The Northwest Power System
A little bit different…– 58 % energy and 70 % capacity is hydro– Hydro output extremely variable --
• Limited ability to store water year to year
• 8000 aMW swing from driest to wettest years
But also similar…– Part of diverse West Coast system – New generation -- typically gas-fired
combined cycle units developed by non-utility entities in response to market
Per Dick Watson of NWPPC 5/17/00
5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop
11
NWPPC: Key findings
There is a problem -- over next few years without new resources, probability of being unable to meet needs at some level during winter is 24 percent– Problems could be energy and/or capacity; big
or little– New resources means new generation and/or
reliable, voluntary, economic load reductionPotential Consequences
– Least -- violation of operating reserve req.– Medium -- rolling brown-outs or black-outs– Worst -- possible widespread outages
Per Dick Watson of NWPPC 5/17/00
5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop
12
Illustrative Sub-daily Operation: January, 2003
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
1 101 201 301 401 501 601 701
Hr of Month
MW
NetDemand
NWThermal
NetImports
NWHydro
Unserved
Per Dick Watson of NWPPC 5/17/00
5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop
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Winter 2003
Achieving a Loss of Load Probability of 5 %
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
PNW Generation Additions (MW)
Prob
of U
nser
ved
Nee
d - %
Per Dick Watson of NWPPC 5/17/00
5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop
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Otay Mesa Power Plant
Size: 510 megawattLocation: San Diego County
Proponent: PG&E Generating AFC filed Aug. 2, 1999 (99-AFC-5)
Blythe Energy Power Plant Project
Size: 520 megawattLocation: Riverside County
Proponent: Summit Energy Group
High Desert Power Plant ProjectSize: 678 or 720 megawatt
Location: San Bernardino CountyProponent: Inland Energy and
Constellation EnergyAFC filed June 30, 1997 (97-AFC-1)
Three Mountain PowerSize: 500 megawatt
Location: Shasta CountyProponent: Ogden Power Pacific
AFC filed March 3, 1999 (99-AFC-2)
Long Beach District Energy FacilitySize: 500 megawatt
Location: Los Angeles CountyProponent: Enron
AFC expected 2000
Los Medanos Energy Center (Formerly Pittsburg District Energy Facility)
Size: 500 megawattLocation: Contra Costa County
Proponent: CalpineAFC filed June 15, 1998 (98-AFC-1)
Metcalf Energy CenterSize: 600 megawatt
Location: Santa Clara CountyProponent: Calpine & Bechtel
AFC filed April 30, 1999 (99-AFC-3)
Moss LandingSize: 1,090 megawatt
Location: Monterey CountyProponent: Duke Energy
AFC filed May 7, 1999 (99-AFC-4)
Pastoria Power ProjectSize: 750 megawatt
Location: Kern CountyProponent: Tejon Ranch Co.
AFC filed Nov. 30, 1999 (99-AFC-7)
Midway-Sunset Cogen WestSize: 500 megawatt
Location: Kern CountyProponent: Midway Sunset Cogeneration Co.
AFC filed Dec. 22, 1999 (99-AFC-9)
La Paloma Generating ProjectSize: 1,048 megawatt
Location: Kern CountyProponent: PG&E Generating
AFC filed August 12, 1998 (98-AFC-2)
Sunrise Cogeneration & Power Project
Size: 320 megawattLocation: Kern County
Proponent: Texaco Global Gas and PowerAFC filed Dec. 21, 1998 (98-AFC-4)
Elk Hills Power ProjectSize: 500 megawatt
Location: Kern CountyProponent: Sempra & Oxy
Antelope ValleySize: 1,000 megawatt
Location: Kern CountyProponent: AES
AFC expected 2000 (98-SIT-8)
Sutter Power ProjectSize: 500 megawatt
Location: Sutter CountyProponent: Calpine
AFC filed Dec.15, 1997 (97-AFC-2)
Power Plant LicensingCases Currently
Before the Commission
Expected Power Plant Licensing Cases
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Current, Expected and Approved Power Plant Licensing Cases
March 23, 2000 - California Energy Commission
South City ProjectSize: 550 megawatt
Location: San Mateo CountyProponent: AES
AFC expected 2000 (98-SIT-7)
Newark Energy CenterSize: 500 megawatt
Location: Alameda CountyProponent: Calpine & Bechtel
AFC expected 2000 (99-SIT-4)
Contra CostaSize: 530 megawatt
Location: Contra Costa CountyProponent: Southern Energy
AFC filed Jan. 31, 2000 (00-AFC-1)
PotreroSize: 520 megawatt
Location: San Francisco CountyProponent: Southern Energy
AFC expected March 2000
Delta Energy CenterSize: 880 megawatt
Location: Contra Costa CountyProponent: Calpine & Bechtel
AFC filed Dec. 18, 1998 (98-AFC-3)
Mountainview Power ProjectSize: 1,056 megawatt
Location: San Bernardino CountyProponent: Thermo Ecotek
AFC filed Feb. 1, 2000 (00-AFC-2)
Power Plant Approvedby the Commission
TOTAL PROJECTS: Approved Projects = 4
Current Projects = 13 Expected Projects = 7
Redondo BeachSize: 700 megawatt
Location: Los Angeles CountyProponent: AES
AFC expected 2000
Morro BaySize: 530 megawatt
Location: San Luis Obispo CountyProponent: Duke Energy
AFC expected 2000
Nueva Azalea Size: 550 megawatt
Location: Los Angeles CountyProponent: Sunlaw Cogen Partners I
AFC filed March 8, 2000 (00-AFC-3)
5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop
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Projected Reserve Requirements (MW) 1999-2008
Reference: WSCC May 1999
5,986
+799
5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop
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Generation Additions
StateNo.
PlantsSP2000
MW CapacitySP2001
MW CapacityAZ 4 0 1640CA 4 0 1820CO 5 110 664NV 1 492 0NM 1 140 0OR 1 0 500WY 1 0 25
17 742 4649
5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop
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Thirteen AZ Plant Additions
Griffith Energy 530
Desert Basin 500
South Point 500
W. Phoenix 500
Red Hawk 2,120
Harquahala 1,040
Arlington Valley 580
Gila River 2080
Big Sandy 720
Mesquite 1265
Gila Bend 750
Kyrene 825
Santan 825
TOTAL MW 12,225
5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop
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WSCC EHV Transmission
5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop
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What Actions Are Needed?
Prepare a coordinated load reduction strategy– Voluntary reduction / Price induced ?– Emergency response
Encourage distributed resource solutions
Encourage new EHV transmission to accompany plant additions
5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop
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Questions ?