Arizona Corporation Commission

Summer Peak 2000Preparedness Workshop

May 17, 20009

5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

2

Agenda

Arizona Transmission Provider Preparedness

– Arizona Public Service Company– Salt River Project– Tucson Electric Power– Western Area Power Administration– Arizona Electric Power Cooperative

Regional Supply and Delivery Consideration

5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

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Regional Supply & Delivery

A Western Interconnection Perspective

– WSCC– NWPPC– CEC/CAISO– Desert Southwest

Is a Regional Response Need ?

Reference: NERC Reliability Assessment 1998-2007

5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

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Non-Coincident Peak Demand Reserve Margins1993-1998

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

Pe

rce

nt

WSCC

California

Southwest

EstimatedActual

History of Reserve Margins

Per Dan Nix of CEC 5/17/00

5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

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CEC: Is There a Problem?

The Summer of 1998– Record High Temperatures throughout West– Record High Electricity Demand– Four Stage Two Emergency Alerts in CA

The Summer of 1999– Cool Summer… But– Record High Electricity Demand

Per Dan Nix of CEC 5/17/00

5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

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Daily Peak Loads

California ISO Control AreaJune 1998 - October 1999

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

MW

August 3, 199844,927 MW

Summer of 1998

July 12, 199945,884 MW

Summer of 1999

CA ISO Daily Peak Load

Per Dan Nix of CEC 5/17/00

5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

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California ISO Load Duration

34000

36000

38000

40000

42000

44000

46000

48000

1

13

25

37

49

61

73

85

97

10

9

12

1

13

3

14

5

15

7

16

9

18

1

19

3

Top 200 Hours

Lo

ad

, MW

LDC 1998 LDC 1999

Per Dan Nix of CEC 5/17/00

5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

9

CAL ISO Peak Demand Load Resource Balance at 7% Operating Reserve

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

60000

65000

2000 2001 2002 2003

Me

ga

wa

tts

Interruptible

Imports*

Firm Trans.

Pow erplants

Existing *

Imports* additional amounts are available in nominal and 1:5 scenarios, but not necessarily in 1:40 scenario

Existing Resources*This number is derived from base installed resources, less outages or43,856 - 2,572 = 41,104

Nominal Peak Demand

1 in 5 year Demand

1 in 40 year Demand

Resources

California ISO Forecast

Per Dan Nix of CEC 5/17/00

5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

10

The Northwest Power System

A little bit different…– 58 % energy and 70 % capacity is hydro– Hydro output extremely variable --

• Limited ability to store water year to year

• 8000 aMW swing from driest to wettest years

But also similar…– Part of diverse West Coast system – New generation -- typically gas-fired

combined cycle units developed by non-utility entities in response to market

Per Dick Watson of NWPPC 5/17/00

5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

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NWPPC: Key findings

There is a problem -- over next few years without new resources, probability of being unable to meet needs at some level during winter is 24 percent– Problems could be energy and/or capacity; big

or little– New resources means new generation and/or

reliable, voluntary, economic load reductionPotential Consequences

– Least -- violation of operating reserve req.– Medium -- rolling brown-outs or black-outs– Worst -- possible widespread outages

Per Dick Watson of NWPPC 5/17/00

5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

12

Illustrative Sub-daily Operation: January, 2003

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1 101 201 301 401 501 601 701

Hr of Month

MW

NetDemand

NWThermal

NetImports

NWHydro

Unserved

Per Dick Watson of NWPPC 5/17/00

5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

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Winter 2003

Achieving a Loss of Load Probability of 5 %

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

PNW Generation Additions (MW)

Prob

of U

nser

ved

Nee

d - %

Per Dick Watson of NWPPC 5/17/00

5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

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Otay Mesa Power Plant

Size: 510 megawattLocation: San Diego County

Proponent: PG&E Generating AFC filed Aug. 2, 1999 (99-AFC-5)

Blythe Energy Power Plant Project

Size: 520 megawattLocation: Riverside County

Proponent: Summit Energy Group

High Desert Power Plant ProjectSize: 678 or 720 megawatt

Location: San Bernardino CountyProponent: Inland Energy and

Constellation EnergyAFC filed June 30, 1997 (97-AFC-1)

Three Mountain PowerSize: 500 megawatt

Location: Shasta CountyProponent: Ogden Power Pacific

AFC filed March 3, 1999 (99-AFC-2)

Long Beach District Energy FacilitySize: 500 megawatt

Location: Los Angeles CountyProponent: Enron

AFC expected 2000

Los Medanos Energy Center (Formerly Pittsburg District Energy Facility)

Size: 500 megawattLocation: Contra Costa County

Proponent: CalpineAFC filed June 15, 1998 (98-AFC-1)

Metcalf Energy CenterSize: 600 megawatt

Location: Santa Clara CountyProponent: Calpine & Bechtel

AFC filed April 30, 1999 (99-AFC-3)

Moss LandingSize: 1,090 megawatt

Location: Monterey CountyProponent: Duke Energy

AFC filed May 7, 1999 (99-AFC-4)

Pastoria Power ProjectSize: 750 megawatt

Location: Kern CountyProponent: Tejon Ranch Co.

AFC filed Nov. 30, 1999 (99-AFC-7)

Midway-Sunset Cogen WestSize: 500 megawatt

Location: Kern CountyProponent: Midway Sunset Cogeneration Co.

AFC filed Dec. 22, 1999 (99-AFC-9)

La Paloma Generating ProjectSize: 1,048 megawatt

Location: Kern CountyProponent: PG&E Generating

AFC filed August 12, 1998 (98-AFC-2)

Sunrise Cogeneration & Power Project

Size: 320 megawattLocation: Kern County

Proponent: Texaco Global Gas and PowerAFC filed Dec. 21, 1998 (98-AFC-4)

Elk Hills Power ProjectSize: 500 megawatt

Location: Kern CountyProponent: Sempra & Oxy

Antelope ValleySize: 1,000 megawatt

Location: Kern CountyProponent: AES

AFC expected 2000 (98-SIT-8)

Sutter Power ProjectSize: 500 megawatt

Location: Sutter CountyProponent: Calpine

AFC filed Dec.15, 1997 (97-AFC-2)

Power Plant LicensingCases Currently

Before the Commission

Expected Power Plant Licensing Cases

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION

Current, Expected and Approved Power Plant Licensing Cases

March 23, 2000 - California Energy Commission

South City ProjectSize: 550 megawatt

Location: San Mateo CountyProponent: AES

AFC expected 2000 (98-SIT-7)

Newark Energy CenterSize: 500 megawatt

Location: Alameda CountyProponent: Calpine & Bechtel

AFC expected 2000 (99-SIT-4)

Contra CostaSize: 530 megawatt

Location: Contra Costa CountyProponent: Southern Energy

AFC filed Jan. 31, 2000 (00-AFC-1)

PotreroSize: 520 megawatt

Location: San Francisco CountyProponent: Southern Energy

AFC expected March 2000

Delta Energy CenterSize: 880 megawatt

Location: Contra Costa CountyProponent: Calpine & Bechtel

AFC filed Dec. 18, 1998 (98-AFC-3)

Mountainview Power ProjectSize: 1,056 megawatt

Location: San Bernardino CountyProponent: Thermo Ecotek

AFC filed Feb. 1, 2000 (00-AFC-2)

Power Plant Approvedby the Commission

TOTAL PROJECTS: Approved Projects = 4

Current Projects = 13 Expected Projects = 7

Redondo BeachSize: 700 megawatt

Location: Los Angeles CountyProponent: AES

AFC expected 2000

Morro BaySize: 530 megawatt

Location: San Luis Obispo CountyProponent: Duke Energy

AFC expected 2000

Nueva Azalea Size: 550 megawatt

Location: Los Angeles CountyProponent: Sunlaw Cogen Partners I

AFC filed March 8, 2000 (00-AFC-3)

5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

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Projected Reserve Requirements (MW) 1999-2008

Reference: WSCC May 1999

5,986

+799

5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

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Generation Additions

StateNo.

PlantsSP2000

MW CapacitySP2001

MW CapacityAZ 4 0 1640CA 4 0 1820CO 5 110 664NV 1 492 0NM 1 140 0OR 1 0 500WY 1 0 25

17 742 4649

5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

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Thirteen AZ Plant Additions

Griffith Energy 530

Desert Basin 500

South Point 500

W. Phoenix 500

Red Hawk 2,120

Harquahala 1,040

Arlington Valley 580

Gila River 2080

Big Sandy 720

Mesquite 1265

Gila Bend 750

Kyrene 825

Santan 825

TOTAL MW 12,225

5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

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WSCC EHV Transmission

5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

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What Actions Are Needed?

Prepare a coordinated load reduction strategy– Voluntary reduction / Price induced ?– Emergency response

Encourage distributed resource solutions

Encourage new EHV transmission to accompany plant additions

5/17/00 ACC Summer Peak 2000 Preparedness Workshop

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Questions ?