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Appraising Solar & Energy Storage With Ei Value
PRESENTEDBY
SandraAdomatis,SRALEEDAP,Adomatis Appraisal
JamieJohnson,Founder,EnergySenseFinance
June10,2017,8:30-10:00AMET
2017InternationalValuationConference,ShawCenter,Ottawa,ON,CA
SANDRA K. ADOMATIS, SRA, LEED GREEN ASSOCIATE, ADOMATIS APPRAISAL SERVICE
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• Appraiser• Author of Residential Green Valuation Tools• REALTOR®• AI Instructor• National Speaker
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JAMIE JOHNSON, FOUNDER, ENERGY SENSE FINANCE
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• PV Value®• Co-author of 5 publications relating to solar
valuation research• U.S. Dept. of Energy - SunShot Awardee
2014-2017• Consultant to U.S. DoE’s Sandia National
Laboratories & Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory 2011-2017
• 15 years in mortgage banking/asset management 1993-2008
APPRAISINGSOLAR&ENERGYSTORAGEWITHEIVALUE©2017
SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV) SYSTEMS
§ Whydopeoplechoosesolar?§ Savemoney– Itisacashflowissue.§ Hedgeagainstrisingutilitycosts§ Lowercarbonfootprint– braggingrights§ Increasepropertyvalueormarketingadvantage
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TOP TEN STATES WITH CUMULATIVE SOLAR PV INSTALLSTopTenStateswithCumulativeSolarPV
Installsin20161. California
2. Utah
3. Georgia
4. Nevada
5. NorthCarolina
6. Texas
7. Arizona
8. Massachusetts
9. Florida
10. Colorado
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INSTALLED SOLAR PV COSTS
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Sector Cost/Watt/dc
Residential $2.89Commercial $1.69Utility-Fixed $1.06Utility-Tracking
$1.18
http://www.seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2016-year-review
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SOLAR PV VALUATION CHALLENGES
§ Dataarelimited§ Systemcharacteristicsaredifficulttosecure§ Knowledgeofrealestateprofessionalsislimited§ EstimatingthekWhcostscanbechallenging
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SOLAR PAGE FROM AI RES. GREEN & ENERGY EFFICIENT ADDENDUM
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http://www.appraisalinstitute.org/assets/1/7/ResidentialGreenandEnergyEfficientAddendum.pdfAPPRAISINGSOLAR&ENERGYSTORAGEWITHEIVALUE©2017
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SOLAR PAGE FROM AI RES. GREEN & ENERGY EFFICIENT ADDENDUM
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http://www.appraisalinstitute.org/assets/1/7/ResidentialGreenandEnergyEfficientAddendum.pdfAPPRAISINGSOLAR&ENERGYSTORAGEWITHEIVALUE©2017
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ENERGY SENSE FINANCE
• AOE: FinTech-Energy Valuation & Datasets
• Founded in 2012
• Located in Tampa, Florida
• Develop USPAP compliant, enterprise valuation applications for Solar, Energy Storage, Wind, SDHW & Energy Efficiency
• Develop valuation & energy related datasets
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11APPRAISINGSOLAR&ENERGYSTORAGEWITHEIVALUE©2017
APPRAISING SOLAR & ENERGY STORAGE WITH EI VALUE
ENERGY STORAGE (Solar has Positive Cost/Benefit)
DataSources:Various,Greentech Media,EnergySenseFinance
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APPRAISING SOLAR & ENERGY STORAGE WITH EI VALUE
ENERGY STORAGE (Energy Storage Potential 2020?)
DataSources:Various,Enphase,EnergySenseFinance
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APPRAISING SOLAR & ENERGY STORAGE WITH EI VALUE
ENERGY STORAGE (Current Deployments)
SourceCredit:Greentech MediaStorageSummitDecember7-82016
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APPRAISING SOLAR & ENERGY STORAGE WITH EI VALUE
ENERGY STORAGE (Different Types of Energy Storage)
• Solid State Batteries
• Flow Batteries
• Flywheels (NASA G2 Flywheel shown)
• Compressed Air Energy Storage
• Thermal
• Pumped Hydro-Power
Photosourcehttps://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:G2_front2.jpg
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APPRAISING SOLAR & ENERGY STORAGE WITH EI VALUE
ENERGY STORAGE (Convenience/Backup)
• Energy backup without a generator• Up to several days of essentials• Use solar or grid to recharge
• Energy backup with a generator• Up to partial day of full load• No need to run generator 24/7• Use solar or generator to recharge
• Rural properties - Off-grid • No Utility Service• Use solar or generator to recharge
HurricaneSandy,ImageCredit:https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sandy_Oct_25_2012_0320Z.png
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APPRAISING SOLAR & ENERGY STORAGE WITH EI VALUE
SOLAR VALUATION (Economics of cost savings)
• Time interval data – Energy Load Profile
• Battery charge – discharge data
• Utility Tariff $/kWh
• Tiers, TOU, Fixed Rate
• Incentivized behavior
ImageCreditEi ValuePlatform,EnergySenseFinance
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APPRAISING SOLAR & ENERGY STORAGE WITH EI VALUE
ENERGY STORAGE (Cost Savings/Income Approach)
• Time of use (TOU)• Have 2 time based tariffs• Off Peak T1 $0.23• Off Peak T2 $0.32• Peak T1 $0.31• Peak T2 $0.39• Summer & Winter are different
• Peak shaving during TOU• Have 2 tiers• Consume kWh in Peak higher tier (T2)• Offset that consumption with storage• Set to discharge from 3PM – 8PM• Save at the higher rate
• Use software, look back, look aheadhttps://www.pge.com/en_US/residential/rate-plans/rate-plan-options/time-of-use-base-plan/time-of-use-plan.page
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APPRAISING SOLAR & ENERGY STORAGE WITH EI VALUE
ENERGY STORAGE (Utility Requirement for new Solar)
• Solar with storage $0.35/kWh
• Self-consumption of solar
• No export of solar to grid allowed
• Grid is saturated during day
• Excess solar energy stored for later use
• See in most utility regions of Hawaii
ImageCreditEi ValuePlatform,EnergySenseFinance
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APPRAISING SOLAR & ENERGY STORAGE WITH EI VALUE
ENERGY STORAGE (Other reasons/things to consider)
• Energy storage may have neg cost/benefit
• Res Generators typ have neg cost/benefit
• Gen fuel tank not allowed/no space for gen
• Environmental - fuel vs battery chemicals
• Homeowner already purchased the car now they want the battery
?
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APPRAISING SOLAR & ENERGY STORAGE WITH EI VALUE
ENERGY STORAGE (Battery Chemistry)
• Lithium-ion Li-On• Last up to 20 years• High cycle life• High cost – Energy Management / Backup
• Lead-Acid (AGM, Gel)• Last up to 10 years• Low cycle life• Low cost – Backup / Off-grid
• Nickel-iron Ni-Fe• Last up to 30 years• High cycle life• High cost – Off-grid
Li-OnTeslaOld/ExistingTechnology18650 18mmx65mm
NewTechnologyTesla2170 21mmx70mm
ComparisonAA14500 14mmx50mm
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APPRAISING SOLAR & ENERGY STORAGE WITH EI VALUE
ENERGY STORAGE (Different Ways to Store)
• Electric Vehicle for on demand storage• Recharge at work during day• Discharge at home 3PM – 8PM• Recharge starting at 9PM• May improve cost/benefit for EV
• Utility Financed Energy Storage• Tesla Powerwall2 (13.5kWh max/8-12 hrs)• Green Mountain Power in Vermont• Pay $15/mo lease• Can’t get out of lease contract/10yr?• Prepay for $1,500 fee• + cost/benefit after 8.4 yrs• Utility can trigger discharge into grid• Homeowner can use for backup• Normal cost $7,000- $7,500ProgramInformation:http://products.greenmountainpower.com/powerwall/
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APPRAISING SOLAR & ENERGY STORAGE WITH EI VALUE
ENERGY STORAGE (Vendors & Data)
• Tesla (Lithium Ion 2170 cell)
• Powerwall 2
• 13.5kWh (stack up to 10 = 135kWh)
• $5,500 without installation
• ~$7,000 Installed
• ~$500/kWh
• 90% RT efficiency
ImageCredit:EnergySenseFinance
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APPRAISING SOLAR & ENERGY STORAGE WITH EI VALUE
ENERGY STORAGE (Vendors & Data)
• Mercedes Benz
• Mercedes Benz Energy Storage Home
• 2.5kWh (stack up to 8 = 20kWh)
• 20kWh ~$13,000 with installation
• ~$650/kWh installed
• Offered through Vivint Solar
• 97% RT efficiency
ProductLiterature:https://www.mercedes-benz.com/en/mercedes-benz-energy/downloads/
ImageCredit:MercedesBenzEnergyUSA
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APPRAISING SOLAR & ENERGY STORAGE WITH EI VALUE
ENERGY STORAGE (Vendors & Data)
• Sonnen Battery
• sonnenBatterie Eco
• 4 – 16kWh
• ~$5,950 - $9,950 without installation
• ~$500 - $3000 for Installation
• ~$750/kWh
• 93% RT efficiency
ProductLiterature:https://sonnen-batterie.com/en-us/sonnenbatterie#sonnenbatterie-eco
ImageCredit:Sonnen-Batterie
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APPRAISING SOLAR & ENERGY STORAGE WITH EI VALUE
ENERGY STORAGE (Vendors & Data)
• LG
• RESU
• 3.3 - 9.8kWh (stack up to 2 = 19.6kWh)
• $4,000 - $6,100 without installation or inverter
• $~$3,500 - $5,000 Inv & Installation
• ~$980/kWh
• Offered initially through SunRunProductLiterature:http://www.lgchem.com/global/ess/ess/product-detail-PDEC0001
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APPRAISING SOLAR & ENERGY STORAGE WITH EI VALUE
ENERGY STORAGE (Vendors & Data)
• Enphase (Lithium Iron Phosphate)
• Enphase AC Battery
• 1.2kWh (stack up to 14 = 16.8kWh)
• ~$1,900 without installation
• ~$3,000 with installation for 1, each after $2k
• ~$1,700/kWh (expect to drop over 6 mo)
• 96% RT efficiencyImageCredit:EnergySenseFinance
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APPRAISING SOLAR & ENERGY STORAGE WITH EI VALUE
ENERGY STORAGE (Battery Pricing)
• Pricing is $/kWh
• Installation not included
• Tesla battery pack cost $190/kWh
• Tesla retail price $400/kWh
• Tesla Powerwall2 installed $500/kWh
• Tesla 2020? goal <$100/kWh pack cost
• Implies installed cost ~$260/kWh by 2020
800
642599
540
269227
100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020E
Lithium-IonBatteryPackPrices
Lithium-IonBatteryPrices
Datasources:Various,BloombergNewEnergy,Greentech Media,EnergySenseFinance,Tesla
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APPRAISING SOLAR & ENERGY STORAGE WITH EI VALUE
ENERGY STORAGE (Battery Warranty)
• 10 years typical for Lithium Ion
• Rated on cycles or throughput (MWh)
• Typically guarantee a % of original capacity
• Require an internet connection (firmware)
• Temperature disclaimers
• May be transferable to new homeowner
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APPRAISING SOLAR & ENERGY STORAGE WITH EI VALUE
ENERGY STORAGE (Energy Storage vs Generator)
• Generac CorePower Installed
• Rating: 7kW Peak/7kW Continuous
• Warranty: 2 years
• Life: Up to 10 years
• Installed Cost: Varies $3,500 - $5,000
• Replacement Cost 2020: ~$3,500 - $5,000
• Tesla Powerwall 2
• Rating: 7kW Peak/5kW Continuous
• Warranty: 10 years
• Life: Up to 20 years
• Installed Cost: ~$7,000
• Replacement Cost 2020: ~$3,600
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APPRAISING SOLAR & ENERGY STORAGE WITH EI VALUE
ENERGY STORAGE (Summary)
• Income Approach
• Sell or offset utility cost at higher $/kWh
• Income stream data can be analyzed
• Need time-interval 15 min usage data
• Customer grant authorization for both
• Cost Approach
• Cost: $500/kWh - $1,700/kWh
• Warranty: 10 years, 7k – 8k cycles
• Life: Up to 20 years
• Declining cost: ~$260/kWh by 2020?
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THANKYOU
Jamie [email protected]/in/jamiejohnson10www.energysensefinance.com
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CONTACT US
Sandra Adomatis, [email protected]@sadomatis