appraising solar & energy storage with eivalue · 2017. 6. 23. · 6/15/17 3 top ten states...

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Appraising Solar & Energy Storage With Ei Value

PRESENTEDBY

SandraAdomatis,SRALEEDAP,Adomatis Appraisal

JamieJohnson,Founder,EnergySenseFinance

June10,2017,8:30-10:00AMET

2017InternationalValuationConference,ShawCenter,Ottawa,ON,CA

SANDRA K. ADOMATIS, SRA, LEED GREEN ASSOCIATE, ADOMATIS APPRAISAL SERVICE

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• Appraiser• Author of Residential Green Valuation Tools• REALTOR®• AI Instructor• National Speaker

APPRAISINGSOLAR&ENERGYSTORAGEWITHEIVALUE©2017

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JAMIE JOHNSON, FOUNDER, ENERGY SENSE FINANCE

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• PV Value®• Co-author of 5 publications relating to solar

valuation research• U.S. Dept. of Energy - SunShot Awardee

2014-2017• Consultant to U.S. DoE’s Sandia National

Laboratories & Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory 2011-2017

• 15 years in mortgage banking/asset management 1993-2008


SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV) SYSTEMS

§ Whydopeoplechoosesolar?§ Savemoney– Itisacashflowissue.§ Hedgeagainstrisingutilitycosts§ Lowercarbonfootprint– braggingrights§ Increasepropertyvalueormarketingadvantage

4APPRAISINGSOLAR&ENERGYSTORAGEWITHEIVALUE©2017

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TOP TEN STATES WITH CUMULATIVE SOLAR PV INSTALLSTopTenStateswithCumulativeSolarPV

Installsin20161. California

2. Utah

3. Georgia

4. Nevada

5. NorthCarolina

6. Texas

7. Arizona

8. Massachusetts

9. Florida

10. Colorado


INSTALLED SOLAR PV COSTS

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Sector Cost/Watt/dc

Residential $2.89Commercial $1.69Utility-Fixed $1.06Utility-Tracking

$1.18

http://www.seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2016-year-review


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SOLAR PV VALUATION CHALLENGES

§ Dataarelimited§ Systemcharacteristicsaredifficulttosecure§ Knowledgeofrealestateprofessionalsislimited§ EstimatingthekWhcostscanbechallenging


SOLAR PAGE FROM AI RES. GREEN & ENERGY EFFICIENT ADDENDUM

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http://www.appraisalinstitute.org/assets/1/7/ResidentialGreenandEnergyEfficientAddendum.pdfAPPRAISINGSOLAR&ENERGYSTORAGEWITHEIVALUE©2017

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SOLAR PAGE FROM AI RES. GREEN & ENERGY EFFICIENT ADDENDUM

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http://www.appraisalinstitute.org/assets/1/7/ResidentialGreenandEnergyEfficientAddendum.pdfAPPRAISINGSOLAR&ENERGYSTORAGEWITHEIVALUE©2017

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ENERGY SENSE FINANCE

• AOE: FinTech-Energy Valuation & Datasets

• Founded in 2012

• Located in Tampa, Florida

• Develop USPAP compliant, enterprise valuation applications for Solar, Energy Storage, Wind, SDHW & Energy Efficiency

• Develop valuation & energy related datasets


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APPRAISING SOLAR & ENERGY STORAGE WITH EI VALUE

ENERGY STORAGE (Solar has Positive Cost/Benefit)

DataSources:Various,Greentech Media,EnergySenseFinance



ENERGY STORAGE (Energy Storage Potential 2020?)

DataSources:Various,Enphase,EnergySenseFinance

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ENERGY STORAGE (Current Deployments)

SourceCredit:Greentech MediaStorageSummitDecember7-82016



ENERGY STORAGE (Different Types of Energy Storage)

• Solid State Batteries

• Flow Batteries

• Flywheels (NASA G2 Flywheel shown)

• Compressed Air Energy Storage

• Thermal

• Pumped Hydro-Power

Photosourcehttps://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:G2_front2.jpg

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ENERGY STORAGE (Convenience/Backup)

• Energy backup without a generator• Up to several days of essentials• Use solar or grid to recharge

• Energy backup with a generator• Up to partial day of full load• No need to run generator 24/7• Use solar or generator to recharge

• Rural properties - Off-grid • No Utility Service• Use solar or generator to recharge

HurricaneSandy,ImageCredit:https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sandy_Oct_25_2012_0320Z.png



SOLAR VALUATION (Economics of cost savings)

• Time interval data – Energy Load Profile

• Battery charge – discharge data

• Utility Tariff $/kWh

• Tiers, TOU, Fixed Rate

• Incentivized behavior

ImageCreditEi ValuePlatform,EnergySenseFinance

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ENERGY STORAGE (Cost Savings/Income Approach)

• Time of use (TOU)• Have 2 time based tariffs• Off Peak T1 $0.23• Off Peak T2 $0.32• Peak T1 $0.31• Peak T2 $0.39• Summer & Winter are different

• Peak shaving during TOU• Have 2 tiers• Consume kWh in Peak higher tier (T2)• Offset that consumption with storage• Set to discharge from 3PM – 8PM• Save at the higher rate

• Use software, look back, look aheadhttps://www.pge.com/en_US/residential/rate-plans/rate-plan-options/time-of-use-base-plan/time-of-use-plan.page



ENERGY STORAGE (Utility Requirement for new Solar)

• Solar with storage $0.35/kWh

• Self-consumption of solar

• No export of solar to grid allowed

• Grid is saturated during day

• Excess solar energy stored for later use

• See in most utility regions of Hawaii

ImageCreditEi ValuePlatform,EnergySenseFinance

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ENERGY STORAGE (Other reasons/things to consider)

• Energy storage may have neg cost/benefit

• Res Generators typ have neg cost/benefit

• Gen fuel tank not allowed/no space for gen

• Environmental - fuel vs battery chemicals

• Homeowner already purchased the car now they want the battery

?



ENERGY STORAGE (Battery Chemistry)

• Lithium-ion Li-On• Last up to 20 years• High cycle life• High cost – Energy Management / Backup

• Lead-Acid (AGM, Gel)• Last up to 10 years• Low cycle life• Low cost – Backup / Off-grid

• Nickel-iron Ni-Fe• Last up to 30 years• High cycle life• High cost – Off-grid

Li-OnTeslaOld/ExistingTechnology18650 18mmx65mm

NewTechnologyTesla2170 21mmx70mm

ComparisonAA14500 14mmx50mm

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ENERGY STORAGE (Different Ways to Store)

• Electric Vehicle for on demand storage• Recharge at work during day• Discharge at home 3PM – 8PM• Recharge starting at 9PM• May improve cost/benefit for EV

• Utility Financed Energy Storage• Tesla Powerwall2 (13.5kWh max/8-12 hrs)• Green Mountain Power in Vermont• Pay $15/mo lease• Can’t get out of lease contract/10yr?• Prepay for $1,500 fee• + cost/benefit after 8.4 yrs• Utility can trigger discharge into grid• Homeowner can use for backup• Normal cost $7,000- $7,500ProgramInformation:http://products.greenmountainpower.com/powerwall/



ENERGY STORAGE (Vendors & Data)

• Tesla (Lithium Ion 2170 cell)

• Powerwall 2

• 13.5kWh (stack up to 10 = 135kWh)

• $5,500 without installation

• ~$7,000 Installed

• ~$500/kWh

• 90% RT efficiency

ImageCredit:EnergySenseFinance

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• Mercedes Benz

• Mercedes Benz Energy Storage Home

• 2.5kWh (stack up to 8 = 20kWh)

• 20kWh ~$13,000 with installation

• ~$650/kWh installed

• Offered through Vivint Solar


ProductLiterature:https://www.mercedes-benz.com/en/mercedes-benz-energy/downloads/

ImageCredit:MercedesBenzEnergyUSA




• Sonnen Battery

• sonnenBatterie Eco

• 4 – 16kWh

• ~$5,950 - $9,950 without installation

• ~$500 - $3000 for Installation

• ~$750/kWh


ProductLiterature:https://sonnen-batterie.com/en-us/sonnenbatterie#sonnenbatterie-eco

ImageCredit:Sonnen-Batterie

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• LG

• RESU

• 3.3 - 9.8kWh (stack up to 2 = 19.6kWh)

• $4,000 - $6,100 without installation or inverter

• $~$3,500 - $5,000 Inv & Installation

• ~$980/kWh

• Offered initially through SunRunProductLiterature:http://www.lgchem.com/global/ess/ess/product-detail-PDEC0001




• Enphase (Lithium Iron Phosphate)

• Enphase AC Battery

• 1.2kWh (stack up to 14 = 16.8kWh)

• ~$1,900 without installation

• ~$3,000 with installation for 1, each after $2k

• ~$1,700/kWh (expect to drop over 6 mo)

• 96% RT efficiencyImageCredit:EnergySenseFinance

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ENERGY STORAGE (Battery Pricing)

• Pricing is $/kWh

• Installation not included

• Tesla battery pack cost $190/kWh

• Tesla retail price $400/kWh

• Tesla Powerwall2 installed $500/kWh

• Tesla 2020? goal <$100/kWh pack cost

• Implies installed cost ~$260/kWh by 2020

800

642599

540

269227

100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020E

Lithium-IonBatteryPackPrices

Lithium-IonBatteryPrices

Datasources:Various,BloombergNewEnergy,Greentech Media,EnergySenseFinance,Tesla



ENERGY STORAGE (Battery Warranty)

• 10 years typical for Lithium Ion

• Rated on cycles or throughput (MWh)

• Typically guarantee a % of original capacity

• Require an internet connection (firmware)

• Temperature disclaimers

• May be transferable to new homeowner

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ENERGY STORAGE (Energy Storage vs Generator)

• Generac CorePower Installed

• Rating: 7kW Peak/7kW Continuous

• Warranty: 2 years

• Life: Up to 10 years

• Installed Cost: Varies $3,500 - $5,000

• Replacement Cost 2020: ~$3,500 - $5,000

• Tesla Powerwall 2

• Rating: 7kW Peak/5kW Continuous

• Warranty: 10 years


• Installed Cost: ~$7,000

• Replacement Cost 2020: ~$3,600



ENERGY STORAGE (Summary)

• Income Approach

• Sell or offset utility cost at higher $/kWh

• Income stream data can be analyzed

• Need time-interval 15 min usage data

• Customer grant authorization for both

• Cost Approach

• Cost: $500/kWh - $1,700/kWh

• Warranty: 10 years, 7k – 8k cycles


• Declining cost: ~$260/kWh by 2020?

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THANKYOU

Jamie [email protected]/in/jamiejohnson10www.energysensefinance.com

�

CONTACT US

Sandra Adomatis, [email protected]@sadomatis

appraising solar & energy storage with eivalue · 2017. 6. 23. · 6/15/17 3 top ten states...

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