Download - Andrey B.Shmakin
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Studies of IGBP-related subjects in Northern Eurasia at the Laboratory of Climatology, Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences
Andrey B.Shmakin
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Main subjects studied at the LaboratoryRegional structure of climate change in the last millennium and its relation to large-scale atmospheric circulation relevant to PAGESClimate extremes and their variability in the 20th century relevant to PAGESRole of the land surface in climatic system from local to global scale relevant to ILEAPS and GAIM
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Change of Net Primary Production of vegetation (% of contemporary)on the East European Plain under doubling of CO2 scenario(Denissenko, Turkov, 2004)
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Distribution of air temperature and precipitation extremes in Northern Eurasia in the 2nd half of 20th century
A.B.Shmakin, V.V.Popova
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Time series of annual mean air temperature in Russia as deviations from 1961-90 average (Izrael, 2000). Solid horizontal lines represent mean values for the periods of 1951-80 and 1989-2001, dashed lines show 99% confidence intervals.
6
-0.270.74-0.60.091.38-0.550.01
-0.270.74-0.30.091.38-0.550.01
-0.270.74-0.20.091.38-0.550.01
-0.270.74-0.70.091.38-0.550.01
-0.270.74-0.10.091.38-0.550.01
-0.270.74-1.10.091.38-0.550.01
-0.270.74-0.20.091.38-0.550.01
-0.270.74-0.30.091.38-0.550.01
-0.270.7400.091.38-0.550.01
-0.270.74-1.20.091.38-0.550.01
-0.270.740.20.091.38-0.550.01
-0.270.8-0.550.01
-0.270.3-0.550.01
-0.27-0.8-0.550.01
-0.27-0.3-0.550.01
-0.27-0.1-0.550.01
-0.270-0.550.01
-0.270-0.550.01
-0.27-2.1-0.550.01
-0.27-0.1-0.550.01
-0.270-0.550.01
-0.27-0.6-0.550.01
-0.270.1-0.550.01
-0.27-0.1-0.550.01
-0.270.7-0.550.01
-0.27-0.7-0.550.01
-0.27-0.2-0.550.01
-0.270-0.550.01
-0.27-0.4-0.550.01
-0.27-0.1-0.550.01
1981119811981
19820.119821982
19831.219831983
19840.119841984
1985-0.619851985
19860.219861986
1987-0.719871987
19880.519881988
19891.219891989
19901.319901990
19911.219911991
19920.119921992
19930.119931993
19940.219941994
1995219951995
19960.219961996
19971.219971997
1998019981998
19990.619991999
1
-1.2
0.1
-0.6
-1.1
-0.2
-1.3
-0.6
-1.5
-0.4
-0.7
-0.8
-0.3
-1.1
0.2
-1.3
0.3
-1.6
0
-0.4
-0.1
0.4
-0.9
-1.8
-0.4
0
-0.7
-1.3
-0.1
0
0
-0.6
-0.7
-0.4
-1.3
0
0.3
-0.2
0.2
-0.1
0.8
-0.6
-0.7
-1.2
-1.1
-0.1
-0.7
0.3
-0.9
0
0.3
0.4
0.7
0.8
-0.5
-0.7
-1.7
-1.8
0.2
0.8
-1.2
-0.4
-0.7
0.6
0.2
-0.7
-0.6
-0.3
-0.2
-0.7
-0.1
-1.1
-0.2
-0.3
0
-1.2
0.2
0.8
0.3
-0.8
-0.3
-0.1
0
0
-2.1
-0.1
0
-0.6
0.1
-0.1
0.7
-0.7
-0.2
0
-0.4
-0.1
1
0.1
1.2
0.1
-0.6
0.2
-0.7
0.5
1.2
1.3
1.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
2
0.2
1.2
0
Air t anomaly
Annual mean air temperature anomalies (deg.C) from 1961-90 average in Russia
1
YearsAir t anomalyT annual anomaly from 1961-90 for the entire Russia
1886-1.2
18870.1
1888-0.6
1889-1.1
1890-0.2
1891-1.3
1892-0.6
1893-1.5
1894-0.4
1895-0.7
1896-0.8
1897-0.3
1898-1.1
18990.2
1900-1.3
19010.3
1902-1.6
19030
1904-0.4
1905-0.1
19060.4
1907-0.9
1908-1.8
1909-0.4
19100
1911-0.7
1912-1.3
1913-0.1
19140
19150
1916-0.6
1917-0.7
1918-0.4
1919-1.3
19200
19210.3
1922-0.2
19230.2
1924-0.1
19250.8
1926-0.6
1927-0.7
1928-1.2
1929-1.1
1930-0.1
1931-0.7
19320.3
1933-0.9
19340
19350.3
19360.4
19370.7
19380.8
1939-0.5
1940-0.7
1941-1.7
1942-1.8
19430.2
19440.8
1945-1.2
1946-0.4
1947-0.7
19480.6
19490.2nao(2000)0.5211375173NAO(ann)0.0923625992NAO(djf97)0.5406758481NAO'(djf)0.4871677413POL(djf)0.3360767854PNA(djf)0.2453056729WP(djf)0.0199491588SCAND-0.3364971275
1950-0.71.30.561.25
1951-0.6-0.270.565-year run.-0.550.01-0.0-0.01-0.120.47-0.4-0.3-0.40.9
1952-0.3-0.27-0.5-0.550.011.20.57-0.311.130.77-1.0-1.10.3-0.7
1953-0.2-0.27-0.38-0.550.010.10.170.47-0.010.07-0.4-0.10.2-0.3
1954-0.7-0.27-0.48-0.550.010.3-0.030.580.200.700.4-0.2-0.30.4
1955-0.1-0.27-0.46-0.550.01-0.60.14-0.57-0.73-0.03-0.5-0.4-0.4-0.5
1956-1.1-0.27-0.48-0.550.01-1.10.140.19-1.15-0.47-0.5-1.5-1.8-0.5
1957-0.2-0.27-0.34-0.550.012.10.060.032.000.73-0.5-0.2-0.80.6
1958-0.3-0.27-0.56-0.550.010.10.210.160.01-0.700.40.40.2-0.7
19590-0.27-0.3-0.550.01-0.10.820.55-0.19-0.400.2-0.3-0.0-0.6
1960-1.2-0.27-0.1-0.550.010.10.51-0.250.02-0.40-0.60.20.40.3
19610.2-0.270.02-0.550.012.00.051.121.940.60-0.31.0-0.70.6
19620.8-0.27-0.14-0.550.010.5-0.08-0.070.440.03-0.3-0.5-1.1-0.6
19630.3-0.270.04-0.550.01-2.2-0.38-0.32-2.30-0.70-0.20.6-2.0-0.5
1964-0.8-0.27-0.02-0.550.01-0.8-0.790.28-0.82-1.330.90.30.70.0
1965-0.3-0.27-0.18-0.550.01-1.4-0.66-0.18-1.49-0.33-0.4-1.1-0.7-0.5
1966-0.1-0.27-0.24-0.550.01-0.1-0.25-0.15-0.13-0.47-1.2-0.11.00.2
19670-0.27-0.5-0.550.011.1-0.530.611.070.60-0.7-0.20.20.5
19680-0.27-0.46-0.550.01-0.1-0.27-0.56-0.21-0.30-0.5-0.0-1.5-1.6
1969-2.1-0.27-0.44-0.550.01-2.2-0.31-0.4-2.26-0.97-1.2-1.10.11.0
1970-0.1-0.27-0.56-0.550.01-0.1-0.530.23-0.19-0.20-0.80.5-0.10.3
19710-0.27-0.54-0.550.01-0.3-0.19-0.65-0.21-0.770.1-1.0-0.7-0.2
1972-0.6-0.27-0.14-0.550.010.00.43-0.150.140.070.1-0.9-0.21.2
19730.1-0.270.02-0.550.011.60.84-0.181.720.800.2-0.30.40.7
1974-0.1-0.27-0.12-0.550.010.90.930.481.080.53-0.2-0.1-1.00.2
19750.7-0.27-0.04-0.550.012.00.54-0.052.110.000.7-0.30.5-0.4
1976-0.7-0.27-0.06-0.550.010.20.11-0.180.310.031.1-0.0-0.2-0.9
1977-0.2-0.27-0.12-0.550.01-1.9-0.47-0.31-1.76-1.23-0.11.30.01.1
19780-0.27-0.28-0.550.01-0.6-0.800.09-0.46-0.57-0.30.7-0.20.3
1979-0.4-0.270.06-0.550.01-2.0-0.590.04-1.84-1.33-0.7-0.40.7-0.1
1980-0.1-0.270.12-0.550.010.3-0.25-0.480.460.070.60.3-0.30.4
198110.361.20.28-0.211.351.00-0.21.0-1.1-0.4
19820.10.46-0.21.010.56-0.07-0.400.1-0.3-0.2-0.4
19831.20.362.10.840.252.230.700.20.71.1-0.5
19840.10.21.70.400.151.851.13-0.40.5-0.40.1
1985-0.60.04-0.50.52-0.57-0.40-0.30-0.7-0.0-0.50.3
19860.2-0.1-1.00.080.44-0.850.10-1.10.9-0.7-0.1
1987-0.70.120.40.34-0.610.49-0.300.01.00.8-0.0
19880.50.5-0.10.87-0.410.020.30-0.6-0.41.10.2
19891.20.740.70.091.383.01.220.463.161.071.0-0.60.6-0.8
19901.30.740.860.091.382.11.481.122.290.000.7-0.00.4-0.2
19911.20.740.780.091.380.71.790.220.880.870.70.0-0.60.5
19920.10.740.580.091.381.71.430.991.840.131.30.70.5-0.1
19930.10.740.720.091.381.41.580.021.570.571.3-0.20.4-0.6
19940.20.740.520.091.381.20.990.411.320.77-0.6-0.1-0.1-0.2
199520.740.740.091.382.90.56-0.693.050.900.70.50.0-0.6
19960.20.740.720.091.38-2.20.40-1.13-2.11-0.470.20.3-0.50.6
19971.20.740.80.091.38-0.50.48-0.28-0.31-0.070.4-0.4-0.7-0.0
199800.740.091.380.7-0.570.91.20.9-0.0
19990.60.740.091.381.61.37-0.9-0.20.5-0.7
2.31.53-0.1-0.3-1.1
Descriptive Statistics (new.sta)0.400.10.80.6
Confid.Confid.Standard0.33-0.2
Valid NMean-99.000%+99.000%MinimumMaximumStd.Dev.Error
VAR130-0.27-0.55164046380.0116404638-2.10.80.55964890470.1021774431
VAR2110.73636363640.0949582991.3777689737020.67122682790.2023825034
1
2
3
-
Network of ex-USSR meteorological stations with available daily data, used for the analysis of climatic extremes
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Characteristics of air temperature and precipitation extremes:
- number of days per month with daily precipitation more than 30 mm;
- maximum pentad precipitation in the certain month;
- number of days per month corresponding to the atmospheric drought criteria by precipitation and maximum temperature (not counting its continuous length);
- number of days per month with minimum air temperature below the 10% probability limit (determined for the basic time series from 1951 to 1980) during 2 or more days;
- monthly sum of minimum air temperature below the 10% probability limit (determined for the base time series from 1951 to 1980);
- number of days in a month with decreasing of average daily temperature since the previous day for 7(C and more (i.e. the situations with intense cold fronts, potentially associated with squalls and tornadoes);
- days of last frost in spring and first frost in autumn;
- length of frost-free season.
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Change of number of days with minimum air temperature below 10% probability limit in December February of 1989-2001 as compared to 1951-80.
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Anomalies of maximum pentad sum of precipitation in December February of 1989-2001 as compared to 1951-80. Statistically insignificant changes (at 10% level) are shown in white.
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Change of number of days with atmospheric drought in July of 1989-2001 as compared to 1951-80
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Change of number of days with daily precipitation more than 30 mm in June August of 1989-2001 as compared to 1951-80.
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Change of number of days with air temperature decrease by more than 7 since the previous day in June of 1989-2001 as compared to 1951-80.
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Change of frost-free season length (days) averaged for 1989-2001 as compared to 1951-80. Statistically insignificant changes (at 5% level) are shown in white.
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Conclusions Change of characteristics of climate extremes generally demonstrate milder conditions, especially in winter.
At the same time, in the east, north and center of the East European plain, the frost-free season has shortened significantly.
In separate regions of the ex-USSR, some weather extremes (intensive rains, atmospheric droughts, sharp temperature decreases) became more frequent.
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Evaluation of snow cover and permafrost features in Northern Eurasia for some climate change scenarios
A.B.Shmakin
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Purpose of the study: To evaluate the regime of snow cover formation and melting, as well as permafrost thawing, in contemporary conditions and under certain climate change scenarios for the 21st century.
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Model:SPONSOR parameterization scheme with full description of the local energy/water exchange processes. The scheme has been involved in numerous international projects for intercomparison of such models since 1994. The model was used together with the original radiation scheme (Shmakin, 1998).
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Location of the test sites in Eurasia
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Air temperature in Tiksi for January of 1992 (observed) and 2062 (projected from GCM scenarios)
January
-22.5-15.3-13.14
-19.8-12.6-10.44
-21.4-14.2-12.04
-23.3-16.1-13.94
-23.9-16.7-14.54
-24.1-16.9-14.74
-25.5-18.3-16.14
-25.8-18.6-16.44
-29-21.8-19.64
-29.4-22.2-20.04
-29.1-21.9-19.74
-30.7-23.5-21.34
-30.8-23.6-21.44
-32.1-24.9-22.74
-31.1-23.9-21.74
-31.7-24.5-22.34
-32.5-25.3-23.14
-31.7-24.5-22.34
-33.2-26-23.84
-35.2-28-25.84
-37.7-30.5-28.34
-39.3-32.1-29.94
-35.3-28.1-25.94
-36.5-29.3-27.14
-37.1-29.9-27.74
-36.9-29.7-27.54
-36.1-28.9-26.74
-36.1-28.9-26.74
-37.4-30.2-28.04
-35.3-28.1-25.94
-35.1-27.9-25.74
-33.5-26.3-24.14
-32.5-25.3-23.14
-30.4-23.2-21.04
-32.7-25.5-23.34
-36.7-29.5-27.34
-38.4-31.2-29.04
-38.1-30.9-28.74
-37.4-30.2-28.04
-33-25.8-23.64
-34.8-27.6-25.44
-34.7-27.5-25.34
-34.2-27-24.84
-33.6-26.4-24.24
-31.7-24.5-22.34
-33.3-26.1-23.94
-33-25.8-23.64
-31.4-24.2-22.04
-25.1-17.9-15.74
-26.9-19.7-17.54
-32-24.8-22.64
-29.2-22-19.84
-20.5-13.3-11.14
-20.1-12.9-10.74
-19.3-12.1-9.94
-23.7-16.5-14.34
-23.1-15.9-13.74
-25.8-18.6-16.44
-30.3-23.1-20.94
-32.8-25.6-23.44
-33.9-26.7-24.54
-34.6-27.4-25.24
-30.3-23.1-20.94
-32.4-25.2-23.04
-28.9-21.7-19.54
-27.5-20.3-18.14
-23.5-16.3-14.14
-21.6-14.4-12.24
-21.5-14.3-12.14
-18.1-10.9-8.74
-21.9-14.7-12.54
-25.8-18.6-16.44
-27.7-20.5-18.34
-29.9-22.7-20.54
-31.4-24.2-22.04
-32.2-25-22.84
-35.4-28.2-26.04
-37.2-30-27.84
-37.2-30-27.84
-37.2-30-27.84
-35.4-28.2-26.04
-35.4-28.2-26.04
-39.5-32.3-30.14
-39.9-32.7-30.54
-37.7-30.5-28.34
-34.1-26.9-24.74
-34.1-26.9-24.74
-24.5-17.3-15.14
-22.7-15.5-13.34
-22.8-15.6-13.44
-22.4-15.2-13.04
-26-18.8-16.64
-22.7-15.5-13.34
-29.3-22.1-19.94
-28.7-21.5-19.34
-30.3-23.1-20.94
-30.3-23.1-20.94
-31.1-23.9-21.74
-30.5-23.3-21.14
-27.4-20.2-18.04
-23.7-16.5-14.34
-23.5-16.3-14.14
-22.9-15.7-13.54
-25-17.8-15.64
-28.8-21.6-19.44
-27.2-20-17.84
-25.8-18.6-16.44
-26.1-18.9-16.74
-26.4-19.2-17.04
-24.3-17.1-14.94
-21.3-14.1-11.94
-20.4-13.2-11.04
-20.5-13.3-11.14
-19.8-12.6-10.44
-23-15.8-13.64
-22.8-15.6-13.44
-21.9-14.7-12.54
-21.8-14.6-12.44
-21-13.8-11.64
-20.1-12.9-10.74
-23.4-16.2-14.04
-23.4-16.2-14.04
-26.1-18.9-16.74
-26.3-19.1-16.94
1992
2062(Hadley)
2062(ECHAM)
July
10.111.5412.98
13.514.9416.38
9.811.2412.68
6.47.849.28
15.617.0418.48
7.18.549.98
11.212.6414.08
6.78.149.58
1516.4417.88
10.111.5412.98
56.447.88
3.24.646.08
4.55.947.38
3.14.545.98
0.92.343.78
-1.40.041.48
-0.41.042.48
2.13.544.98
1.42.844.28
0.62.043.48
2.43.845.28
4.86.247.68
4.45.847.28
5.46.848.28
8.49.8411.28
6.47.849.28
4.86.247.68
2.53.945.38
3.34.746.18
3.75.146.58
5.26.648.08
4.15.546.98
7.28.6410.08
10.211.6413.08
10.411.8413.28
4.66.047.48
1112.4413.88
12.614.0415.48
13.314.7416.18
6.27.649.08
6.88.249.68
9.110.5411.98
6.17.548.98
3.34.746.18
2.33.745.18
2.64.045.48
2.94.345.78
2.13.544.98
1.93.344.78
3.14.545.98
3.14.545.98
45.446.88
4.76.147.58
7.18.549.98
7.18.549.98
7.18.549.98
5.97.348.78
11.813.2414.68
10.712.1413.58
8.39.7411.18
1011.4412.88
7.38.7410.18
5.46.848.28
4.15.546.98
2.53.945.38
3.14.545.98
6.17.548.98
5.26.648.08
6.88.249.68
67.448.88
5.67.048.48
2.74.145.58
5.36.748.18
12.213.6415.08
13.915.3416.78
12.714.1415.58
18.519.9421.38
18.519.9421.38
7.69.0410.48
3.75.146.58
4.66.047.48
78.449.88
7.69.0410.48
3.85.246.68
67.448.88
10.812.2413.68
6.68.049.48
3.24.646.08
4.96.347.78
10.511.9413.38
23.224.6426.08
19.320.7422.18
9.611.0412.48
9.611.0412.48
10.411.8413.28
6.47.849.28
12.814.2415.68
14.916.3417.78
16.117.5418.98
17.318.7420.18
23.524.9426.38
24.125.5426.98
910.4411.88
7.79.1410.58
78.449.88
11.613.0414.48
7.58.9410.38
5.87.248.68
5.26.648.08
4.86.247.68
4.55.947.38
4.55.947.38
5.67.048.48
8.910.3411.78
89.4410.88
23.444.88
7.38.7410.18
8.610.0411.48
67.448.88
3.14.545.98
4.55.947.38
78.449.88
7.89.2410.68
6.27.649.08
1992
2062(Hadley)
2062(ECHAM)
1
19922062(Hadley)2062(ECHAM)19922062(Hadley)2062(ECHAM)
-22.5-15.3-13.1410.111.5412.98-295.66-288.46-286.3-263.06-261.62-260.18
-19.8-12.6-10.4413.514.9416.38-292.96-285.76-283.6-259.66-258.22-256.78
-21.4-14.2-12.049.811.2412.68-294.56-287.36-285.2-263.36-261.92-260.48
-23.3-16.1-13.946.47.849.28-296.46-289.26-287.1-266.76-265.32-263.88
-23.9-16.7-14.5415.617.0418.48-297.06-289.86-287.7-257.56-256.12-254.68
-24.1-16.9-14.747.18.549.98-297.26-290.06-287.9-266.06-264.62-263.18
-25.5-18.3-16.1411.212.6414.08-298.66-291.46-289.3-261.96-260.52-259.08
-25.8-18.6-16.446.78.149.58-298.96-291.76-289.6-266.46-265.02-263.58
-29-21.8-19.641516.4417.88-302.16-294.96-292.8-258.16-256.72-255.28
-29.4-22.2-20.0410.111.5412.98-302.56-295.36-293.2-263.06-261.62-260.18
-29.1-21.9-19.7456.447.88-302.26-295.06-292.9-268.16-266.72-265.28
-30.7-23.5-21.343.24.646.08-303.86-296.66-294.5-269.96-268.52-267.08
-30.8-23.6-21.444.55.947.38-303.96-296.76-294.6-268.66-267.22-265.78
-32.1-24.9-22.743.14.545.98-305.26-298.06-295.9-270.06-268.62-267.18
-31.1-23.9-21.740.92.343.78-304.26-297.06-294.9-272.26-270.82-269.38
-31.7-24.5-22.34-1.40.041.48-304.86-297.66-295.5-274.56-273.12-271.68
-32.5-25.3-23.14-0.41.042.48-305.66-298.46-296.3-273.56-272.12-270.68
-31.7-24.5-22.342.13.544.98-304.86-297.66-295.5-271.06-269.62-268.18
-33.2-26-23.841.42.844.28-306.36-299.16-297-271.76-270.32-268.88
-35.2-28-25.840.62.043.48-308.36-301.16-299-272.56-271.12-269.68
-37.7-30.5-28.342.43.845.28-310.86-303.66-301.5-270.76-269.32-267.88
-39.3-32.1-29.944.86.247.68-312.46-305.26-303.1-268.36-266.92-265.48
-35.3-28.1-25.944.45.847.28-308.46-301.26-299.1-268.76-267.32-265.88
-36.5-29.3-27.145.46.848.28-309.66-302.46-300.3-267.76-266.32-264.88
-37.1-29.9-27.748.49.8411.28-310.26-303.06-300.9-264.76-263.32-261.88
-36.9-29.7-27.546.47.849.28-310.06-302.86-300.7-266.76-265.32-263.88
-36.1-28.9-26.744.86.247.68-309.26-302.06-299.9-268.36-266.92-265.48
-36.1-28.9-26.742.53.945.38-309.26-302.06-299.9-270.66-269.22-267.78
-37.4-30.2-28.043.34.746.18-310.56-303.36-301.2-269.86-268.42-266.98
-35.3-28.1-25.943.75.146.58-308.46-301.26-299.1-269.46-268.02-266.58
-35.1-27.9-25.745.26.648.08-308.26-301.06-298.9-267.96-266.52-265.08
-33.5-26.3-24.144.15.546.98-306.66-299.46-297.3-269.06-267.62-266.18
-32.5-25.3-23.147.28.6410.08-305.66-298.46-296.3-265.96-264.52-263.08
-30.4-23.2-21.0410.211.6413.08-303.56-296.36-294.2-262.96-261.52-260.08
-32.7-25.5-23.3410.411.8413.28-305.86-298.66-296.5-262.76-261.32-259.88
-36.7-29.5-27.344.66.047.48-309.86-302.66-300.5-268.56-267.12-265.68
-38.4-31.2-29.041112.4413.88-311.56-304.36-302.2-262.16-260.72-259.28
-38.1-30.9-28.7412.614.0415.48-311.26-304.06-301.9-260.56-259.12-257.68
-37.4-30.2-28.0413.314.7416.18-310.56-303.36-301.2-259.86-258.42-256.98
-33-25.8-23.646.27.649.08-306.16-298.96-296.8-266.96-265.52-264.08
-34.8-27.6-25.446.88.249.68-307.96-300.76-298.6-266.36-264.92-263.48
-34.7-27.5-25.349.110.5411.98-307.86-300.66-298.5-264.06-262.62-261.18
-34.2-27-24.846.17.548.98-307.36-300.16-298-267.06-265.62-264.18
-33.6-26.4-24.243.34.746.18-306.76-299.56-297.4-269.86-268.42-266.98
-31.7-24.5-22.342.33.745.18-304.86-297.66-295.5-270.86-269.42-267.98
-33.3-26.1-23.942.64.045.48-306.46-299.26-297.1-270.56-269.12-267.68
-33-25.8-23.642.94.345.78-306.16-298.96-296.8-270.26-268.82-267.38
-31.4-24.2-22.042.13.544.98-304.56-297.36-295.2-271.06-269.62-268.18
-25.1-17.9-15.741.93.344.78-298.26-291.06-288.9-271.26-269.82-268.38
-26.9-19.7-17.543.14.545.98-300.06-292.86-290.7-270.06-268.62-267.18
-32-24.8-22.643.14.545.98-305.16-297.96-295.8-270.06-268.62-267.18
-29.2-22-19.8445.446.88-302.36-295.16-293-269.16-267.72-266.28
-20.5-13.3-11.144.76.147.58-293.66-286.46-284.3-268.46-267.02-265.58
-20.1-12.9-10.747.18.549.98-293.26-286.06-283.9-266.06-264.62-263.18
-19.3-12.1-9.947.18.549.98-292.46-285.26-283.1-266.06-264.62-263.18
-23.7-16.5-14.347.18.549.98-296.86-289.66-287.5-266.06-264.62-263.18
-23.1-15.9-13.745.97.348.78-296.26-289.06-286.9-267.26-265.82-264.38
-25.8-18.6-16.4411.813.2414.68-298.96-291.76-289.6-261.36-259.92-258.48
-30.3-23.1-20.9410.712.1413.58-303.46-296.26-294.1-262.46-261.02-259.58
-32.8-25.6-23.448.39.7411.18-305.96-298.76-296.6-264.86-263.42-261.98
-33.9-26.7-24.541011.4412.88-307.06-299.86-297.7-263.16-261.72-260.28
-34.6-27.4-25.247.38.7410.18-307.76-300.56-298.4-265.86-264.42-262.98
-30.3-23.1-20.945.46.848.28-303.46-296.26-294.1-267.76-266.32-264.88
-32.4-25.2-23.044.15.546.98-305.56-298.36-296.2-269.06-267.62-266.18
-28.9-21.7-19.542.53.945.38-302.06-294.86-292.7-270.66-269.22-267.78
-27.5-20.3-18.143.14.545.98-300.66-293.46-291.3-270.06-268.62-267.18
-23.5-16.3-14.146.17.548.98-296.66-289.46-287.3-267.06-265.62-264.18
-21.6-14.4-12.245.26.648.08-294.76-287.56-285.4-267.96-266.52-265.08
-21.5-14.3-12.146.88.249.68-294.66-287.46-285.3-266.36-264.92-263.48
-18.1-10.9-8.7467.448.88-291.26-284.06-281.9-267.16-265.72-264.28
-21.9-14.7-12.545.67.048.48-295.06-287.86-285.7-267.56-266.12-264.68
-25.8-18.6-16.442.74.145.58-298.96-291.76-289.6-270.46-269.02-267.58
-27.7-20.5-18.345.36.748.18-300.86-293.66-291.5-267.86-266.42-264.98
-29.9-22.7-20.5412.213.6415.08-303.06-295.86-293.7-260.96-259.52-258.08
-31.4-24.2-22.0413.915.3416.78-304.56-297.36-295.2-259.26-257.82-256.38
-32.2-25-22.8412.714.1415.58-305.36-298.16-296-260.46-259.02-257.58
-35.4-28.2-26.0418.519.9421.38-308.56-301.36-299.2-254.66-253.22-251.78
-37.2-30-27.8418.519.9421.38-310.36-303.16-301-254.66-253.22-251.78
-37.2-30-27.847.69.0410.48-310.36-303.16-301-265.56-264.12-262.68
-37.2-30-27.843.75.146.58-310.36-303.16-301-269.46-268.02-266.58
-35.4-28.2-26.044.66.047.48-308.56-301.36-299.2-268.56-267.12-265.68
-35.4-28.2-26.0478.449.88-308.56-301.36-299.2-266.16-264.72-263.28
-39.5-32.3-30.147.69.0410.48-312.66-305.46-303.3-265.56-264.12-262.68
-39.9-32.7-30.543.85.246.68-313.06-305.86-303.7-269.36-267.92-266.48
-37.7-30.5-28.3467.448.88-310.86-303.66-301.5-267.16-265.72-264.28
-34.1-26.9-24.7410.812.2413.68-307.26-300.06-297.9-262.36-260.92-259.48
-34.1-26.9-24.746.68.049.48-307.26-300.06-297.9-266.56-265.12-263.68
-24.5-17.3-15.143.24.646.08-297.66-290.46-288.3-269.96-268.52-267.08
-22.7-15.5-13.344.96.347.78-295.86-288.66-286.5-268.26-266.82-265.38
-22.8-15.6-13.4410.511.9413.38-295.96-288.76-286.6-262.66-261.22-259.78
-22.4-15.2-13.0423.224.6426.08-295.56-288.36-286.2-249.96-248.52-247.08
-26-18.8-16.6419.320.7422.18-299.16-291.96-289.8-253.86-252.42-250.98
-22.7-15.5-13.349.611.0412.48-295.86-288.66-286.5-263.56-262.12-260.68
-29.3-22.1-19.949.611.0412.48-302.46-295.26-293.1-263.56-262.12-260.68
-28.7-21.5-19.3410.411.8413.28-301.86-294.66-292.5-262.76-261.32-259.88
-30.3-23.1-20.946.47.849.28-303.46-296.26-294.1-266.76-265.32-263.88
-30.3-23.1-20.9412.814.2415.68-303.46-296.26-294.1-260.36-258.92-257.48
-31.1-23.9-21.7414.916.3417.78-304.26-297.06-294.9-258.26-256.82-255.38
-30.5-23.3-21.1416.117.5418.98-303.66-296.46-294.3-257.06-255.62-254.18
-27.4-20.2-18.0417.318.7420.18-300.56-293.36-291.2-255.86-254.42-252.98
-23.7-16.5-14.3423.524.9426.38-296.86-289.66-287.5-249.66-248.22-246.78
-23.5-16.3-14.1424.125.5426.98-296.66-289.46-287.3-249.06-247.62-246.18
-22.9-15.7-13.54910.4411.88-296.06-288.86-286.7-264.16-262.72-261.28
-25-17.8-15.647.79.1410.58-298.16-290.96-288.8-265.46-264.02-262.58
-28.8-21.6-19.4478.449.88-301.96-294.76-292.6-266.16-264.72-263.28
-27.2-20-17.8411.613.0414.48-300.36-293.16-291-261.56-260.12-258.68
-25.8-18.6-16.447.58.9410.38-298.96-291.76-289.6-265.66-264.22-262.78
-26.1-18.9-16.745.87.248.68-299.26-292.06-289.9-267.36-265.92-264.48
-26.4-19.2-17.045.26.648.08-299.56-292.36-290.2-267.96-266.52-265.08
-24.3-17.1-14.944.86.247.68-297.46-290.26-288.1-268.36-266.92-265.48
-21.3-14.1-11.944.55.947.38-294.46-287.26-285.1-268.66-267.22-265.78
-20.4-13.2-11.044.55.947.38-293.56-286.36-284.2-268.66-267.22-265.78
-20.5-13.3-11.145.67.048.48-293.66-286.46-284.3-267.56-266.12-264.68
-19.8-12.6-10.448.910.3411.78-292.96-285.76-283.6-264.26-262.82-261.38
-23-15.8-13.6489.4410.88-296.16-288.96-286.8-265.16-263.72-262.28
-22.8-15.6-13.4423.444.88-295.96-288.76-286.6-271.16-269.72-268.28
-21.9-14.7-12.547.38.7410.18-295.06-287.86-285.7-265.86-264.42-262.98
-21.8-14.6-12.448.610.0411.48-294.96-287.76-285.6-264.56-263.12-261.68
-21-13.8-11.6467.448.88-294.16-286.96-284.8-267.16-265.72-264.28
-20.1-12.9-10.743.14.545.98-293.26-286.06-283.9-270.06-268.62-267.18
-23.4-16.2-14.044.55.947.38-296.56-289.36-287.2-268.66-267.22-265.78
-23.4-16.2-14.0478.449.88-296.56-289.36-287.2-266.16-264.72-263.28
-26.1-18.9-16.747.89.2410.68-299.26-292.06-289.9-265.36-263.92-262.48
-26.3-19.1-16.946.27.649.08-299.46-292.26-290.1-266.96-265.52-264.08
2
3
-
Average of annual maximum SWEs (mm) at the test sites
1
1014898842
894771739
789613574
1990s
Hadley
ECHAM
1
TuruhanskOlekminskTiksiYakutskNarian-Mar
1990s10148947891089392
Hadley8987716131076231
ECHAM842739574108177
Forest/bush
Contemporary10279097911097387
Hadley8997776121083200
ECHAM830741572108666
2
3
-
Average of annual maximum soil temperatures at .7 m depth, marsh
1
1014898842
894771739
789613574
1990s
Hadley
ECHAM
tg2
288290290.1
287.1290.2291.8
292.5295.3297.8
290.3294.1294.9
275.7277.9280.2
1990s
Hadley
ECHAM
tg3
276.1277.5277.7
275.3276.6277.4
277.4278.7279.6
273.6275.3275.8
266.9267.5268.3
1990s
Hadley
ECHAM
tg4
271.7272.2272.5
270.5270.5270.9
270.8271.2271.6
266.4266.5266.8
261.2261.7262
1990s
Hadley
ECHAM
1
SWE_max
TuruhanskOlekminskTiksiYakutskNarian-Mar
1990s10148947891089392
Hadley8987716131076231
ECHAM842739574108177
Forest/bush
1990s10279097911097387
Hadley8997776121083200
ECHAM830741572108666
Tundra/marsh
Tg1Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi
1990s319318.7329.4330.3301.1
Hadley322.8326333.4334.1303.5
ECHAM322.9331.1335.8336.2306.5
Tg2Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi
1990s288287.1292.5290.3275.7
Hadley290290.2295.3294.1277.9
ECHAM290.1291.8297.8294.9280.2
Tg3Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi
1990s276.1275.3277.4273.6266.9
Hadley277.5276.6278.7275.3267.5
ECHAM277.7277.4279.6275.8268.3
Tg4Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi
1990s271.7270.5270.8266.4261.2
Hadley272.2270.5271.2266.5261.7
ECHAM272.5270.9271.6266.8262
Forest/bush
Tg1Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi
1990s303.4296.7304.3305.4290.9
Hadley307.3302.3310.3310.1293.1
ECHAM308305.1314.9311.9296.1
Tg2Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi
1990s285.2285.4287.9288.2277.3
Hadley288.9288.5291.4291278.5
ECHAM289.3290.2293.3292.4280
Tg3Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi
1990s279279280277.9272.2
Hadley281.1280.2281.4278.9272.3
ECHAM281.2281.2282.7280273.2
Tg4Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi
1990s273.2273273.1269.8266.2
Hadley273.2272.9272.7268.4263.8
ECHAM273.2273.2273.1268.8264.6
2
3
-
Average of annual maximum soil temperatures at .7 m depth, bush
1
1014898842
894771739
789613574
1990s
Hadley
ECHAM
tg2
288290290.1
287.1290.2291.8
292.5295.3297.8
290.3294.1294.9
275.7277.9280.2
1990s
Hadley
ECHAM
tg3
276.1277.5277.7
275.3276.6277.4
277.4278.7279.6
273.6275.3275.8
266.9267.5268.3
1990s
Hadley
ECHAM
tg4
271.7272.2272.5
270.5270.5270.9
270.8271.2271.6
266.4266.5266.8
261.2261.7262
1990s
Hadley
ECHAM
tg3_m
279281.1281.2
279280.2281.2
280281.4282.7
277.9278.9280
272.2272.3273.2
1990s
Hadley
ECHAM
1
SWE_max
TuruhanskOlekminskTiksiYakutskNarian-Mar
1990s10148947891089392
Hadley8987716131076231
ECHAM842739574108177
Forest/bush
1990s10279097911097387
Hadley8997776121083200
ECHAM830741572108666
Tundra/marsh
Tg1Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi1990sHadleyECHAM
1990s319318.7329.4330.3301.13190.05322.80.05322.90.05
Hadley322.8326333.4334.1303.51990sDHadleyDECHAMDTmeltD
ECHAM322.9331.1335.8336.2306.52880.252900.25290.10.25273.160.25
276.10.7277.50.7277.70.7273.160.7
Tg2Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi271.72272.22272.52273.162
1990s288287.1292.5290.3275.7
Hadley290290.2295.3294.1277.9
ECHAM290.1291.8297.8294.9280.2
Tg3Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi
1990s276.1275.3277.4273.6266.9
Hadley277.5276.6278.7275.3267.5
ECHAM277.7277.4279.6275.8268.3
Tg4Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi
1990s271.7270.5270.8266.4261.2
Hadley272.2270.5271.2266.5261.7
ECHAM272.5270.9271.6266.8262
Forest/bush
Tg1Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi
1990s303.4296.7304.3305.4290.9
Hadley307.3302.3310.3310.1293.1
ECHAM308305.1314.9311.9296.1
Tg2Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi
1990s285.2285.4287.9288.2277.3
Hadley288.9288.5291.4291278.5
ECHAM289.3290.2293.3292.4280
Tg3Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi
1990s279279280277.9272.2
Hadley281.1280.2281.4278.9272.3
ECHAM281.2281.2282.7280273.2
Tg4Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi
1990s273.2273273.1269.8266.2
Hadley273.2272.9272.7268.4263.8
ECHAM273.2273.2273.1268.8264.6
2
3
-
Average of annual maximum soil temperatures at 2 m depth, marsh
1
1014898842
894771739
789613574
1990s
Hadley
ECHAM
tg2
288290290.1
287.1290.2291.8
292.5295.3297.8
290.3294.1294.9
275.7277.9280.2
1990s
Hadley
ECHAM
tg3
276.1277.5277.7
275.3276.6277.4
277.4278.7279.6
273.6275.3275.8
266.9267.5268.3
1990s
Hadley
ECHAM
tg4
271.7272.2272.5
270.5270.5270.9
270.8271.2271.6
266.4266.5266.8
261.2261.7262
1990s
Hadley
ECHAM
1
SWE_max
TuruhanskOlekminskTiksiYakutskNarian-Mar
1990s10148947891089392
Hadley8987716131076231
ECHAM842739574108177
Forest/bush
1990s10279097911097387
Hadley8997776121083200
ECHAM830741572108666
Tundra/marsh
Tg1Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi
1990s319318.7329.4330.3301.1
Hadley322.8326333.4334.1303.5
ECHAM322.9331.1335.8336.2306.5
Tg2Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi
1990s288287.1292.5290.3275.7
Hadley290290.2295.3294.1277.9
ECHAM290.1291.8297.8294.9280.2
Tg3Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi
1990s276.1275.3277.4273.6266.9
Hadley277.5276.6278.7275.3267.5
ECHAM277.7277.4279.6275.8268.3
Tg4Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi
1990s271.7270.5270.8266.4261.2
Hadley272.2270.5271.2266.5261.7
ECHAM272.5270.9271.6266.8262
Forest/bush
Tg1Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi
1990s303.4296.7304.3305.4290.9
Hadley307.3302.3310.3310.1293.1
ECHAM308305.1314.9311.9296.1
Tg2Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi
1990s285.2285.4287.9288.2277.3
Hadley288.9288.5291.4291278.5
ECHAM289.3290.2293.3292.4280
Tg3Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi
1990s279279280277.9272.2
Hadley281.1280.2281.4278.9272.3
ECHAM281.2281.2282.7280273.2
Tg4Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi
1990s273.2273273.1269.8266.2
Hadley273.2272.9272.7268.4263.8
ECHAM273.2273.2273.1268.8264.6
2
3
-
Average of annual maximum soil temperatures at 2 m depth, bush
1
1014898842
894771739
789613574
1990s
Hadley
ECHAM
tg2
288290290.1
287.1290.2291.8
292.5295.3297.8
290.3294.1294.9
275.7277.9280.2
1990s
Hadley
ECHAM
tg3
276.1277.5277.7
275.3276.6277.4
277.4278.7279.6
273.6275.3275.8
266.9267.5268.3
1990s
Hadley
ECHAM
tg4
271.7272.2272.5
270.5270.5270.9
270.8271.2271.6
266.4266.5266.8
261.2261.7262
1990s
Hadley
ECHAM
tg3_m
279281.1281.2
279280.2281.2
280281.4282.7
277.9278.9280
272.2272.3273.2
1990s
Hadley
ECHAM
tg4_m
273.2273.2273.2
273273273.2
272.7273273.1
268.4268.8269.8
263.8264.6266.2
1990s
Hadley
ECHAM
1
SWE_max
TuruhanskOlekminskTiksiYakutskNarian-Mar
1990s10148947891089392
Hadley8987716131076231
ECHAM842739574108177
Forest/bush
1990s10279097911097387
Hadley8997776121083200
ECHAM830741572108666
Tundra/marsh
Tg1Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi1990sHadleyECHAM
1990s319318.7329.4330.3301.13190.05322.80.05322.90.05
Hadley322.8326333.4334.1303.51990sDHadleyDECHAMDTmeltD
ECHAM322.9331.1335.8336.2306.52880.252900.25290.10.25273.160.25
276.10.7277.50.7277.70.7273.160.7
Tg2Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi271.72272.22272.52273.162
1990s288287.1292.5290.3275.7
Hadley290290.2295.3294.1277.9
ECHAM290.1291.8297.8294.9280.2
Tg3Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi
1990s276.1275.3277.4273.6266.9
Hadley277.5276.6278.7275.3267.5
ECHAM277.7277.4279.6275.8268.3
Tg4Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi
1990s271.7270.5270.8266.4261.2
Hadley272.2270.5271.2266.5261.7
ECHAM272.5270.9271.6266.8262
Forest/bush
Tg1Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi
1990s303.4296.7304.3305.4290.9
Hadley307.3302.3310.3310.1293.1
ECHAM308305.1314.9311.9296.1
Tg2Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi
1990s285.2285.4287.9288.2277.3
Hadley288.9288.5291.4291278.5
ECHAM289.3290.2293.3292.4280
Tg3Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi
1990s279279280277.9272.2
Hadley281.1280.2281.4278.9272.3
ECHAM281.2281.2282.7280273.2
Tg4Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi
1990s273.2273272.7268.4263.8
Hadley273.2273273268.8264.6
ECHAM273.2273.2273.1269.8266.2
2
3
-
ConclusionsAt the wetter sites, no qualitative changes in the permafrost regime take place in the coming 70 years. At the dryer sites under the ECHAM scenario, the permafrost will start to thaw in 2060s at 0.7 m in Tiksi and at 2 m in Turuhansk.The rate of soil temperature increase in the coming 70 years does not exceed 1.5C at wetter sites, and 2.5C at dryer sites. This is due to considerable soil heat capacity and low soil heat conductivity in the permafrost areas.The snow water equivalent at the sites will decrease to some extent under the climate change scenarios.