andrey b.shmakin

Studies of IGBP-related subjects in Northern Eurasia at the Laboratory of Climatology, Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences

Andrey B.Shmakin

Main subjects studied at the LaboratoryRegional structure of climate change in the last millennium and its relation to large-scale atmospheric circulation relevant to PAGESClimate extremes and their variability in the 20th century relevant to PAGESRole of the land surface in climatic system from local to global scale relevant to ILEAPS and GAIM

Change of Net Primary Production of vegetation (% of contemporary)on the East European Plain under doubling of CO2 scenario(Denissenko, Turkov, 2004)

Distribution of air temperature and precipitation extremes in Northern Eurasia in the 2nd half of 20th century

A.B.Shmakin, V.V.Popova

Time series of annual mean air temperature in Russia as deviations from 1961-90 average (Izrael, 2000). Solid horizontal lines represent mean values for the periods of 1951-80 and 1989-2001, dashed lines show 99% confidence intervals.

6

-0.270.74-0.60.091.38-0.550.01

-0.270.74-0.30.091.38-0.550.01

-0.270.74-0.20.091.38-0.550.01

-0.270.74-0.70.091.38-0.550.01

-0.270.74-0.10.091.38-0.550.01

-0.270.74-1.10.091.38-0.550.01

-0.270.74-0.20.091.38-0.550.01

-0.270.74-0.30.091.38-0.550.01

-0.270.7400.091.38-0.550.01

-0.270.74-1.20.091.38-0.550.01

-0.270.740.20.091.38-0.550.01

-0.270.8-0.550.01

-0.270.3-0.550.01

-0.27-0.8-0.550.01

-0.27-0.3-0.550.01

-0.27-0.1-0.550.01

-0.270-0.550.01

-0.270-0.550.01

-0.27-2.1-0.550.01

-0.27-0.1-0.550.01

-0.270-0.550.01

-0.27-0.6-0.550.01

-0.270.1-0.550.01

-0.27-0.1-0.550.01

-0.270.7-0.550.01

-0.27-0.7-0.550.01

-0.27-0.2-0.550.01

-0.270-0.550.01

-0.27-0.4-0.550.01

-0.27-0.1-0.550.01

1981119811981

19820.119821982

19831.219831983

19840.119841984

1985-0.619851985

19860.219861986

1987-0.719871987

19880.519881988

19891.219891989

19901.319901990

19911.219911991

19920.119921992

19930.119931993

19940.219941994

1995219951995

19960.219961996

19971.219971997

1998019981998

19990.619991999

1

-1.2

0.1

-0.6

-1.1

-0.2

-1.3

-0.6

-1.5

-0.4

-0.7

-0.8

-0.3

-1.1

0.2

-1.3

0.3

-1.6

0

-0.4

-0.1

0.4

-0.9

-1.8

-0.4

0

-0.7

-1.3

-0.1

0

0

-0.6

-0.7

-0.4

-1.3

0

0.3

-0.2

0.2

-0.1

0.8

-0.6

-0.7

-1.2

-1.1

-0.1

-0.7

0.3

-0.9

0

0.3

0.4

0.7

0.8

-0.5

-0.7

-1.7

-1.8

0.2

0.8

-1.2

-0.4

-0.7

0.6

0.2

-0.7

-0.6

-0.3

-0.2

-0.7

-0.1

-1.1

-0.2

-0.3

0

-1.2

0.2

0.8

0.3

-0.8

-0.3

-0.1

0

0

-2.1

-0.1

0

-0.6

0.1

-0.1

0.7

-0.7

-0.2

0

-0.4

-0.1

1

0.1

1.2

0.1

-0.6

0.2

-0.7

0.5

1.2

1.3

1.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

2

0.2

1.2

0

Air t anomaly

Annual mean air temperature anomalies (deg.C) from 1961-90 average in Russia

1

YearsAir t anomalyT annual anomaly from 1961-90 for the entire Russia

1886-1.2

18870.1

1888-0.6

1889-1.1

1890-0.2

1891-1.3

1892-0.6

1893-1.5

1894-0.4

1895-0.7

1896-0.8

1897-0.3

1898-1.1

18990.2

1900-1.3

19010.3

1902-1.6

19030

1904-0.4

1905-0.1

19060.4

1907-0.9

1908-1.8

1909-0.4

19100

1911-0.7

1912-1.3

1913-0.1

19140

19150

1916-0.6

1917-0.7

1918-0.4

1919-1.3

19200

19210.3

1922-0.2

19230.2

1924-0.1

19250.8

1926-0.6

1927-0.7

1928-1.2

1929-1.1

1930-0.1

1931-0.7

19320.3

1933-0.9

19340

19350.3

19360.4

19370.7

19380.8

1939-0.5

1940-0.7

1941-1.7

1942-1.8

19430.2

19440.8

1945-1.2

1946-0.4

1947-0.7

19480.6

19490.2nao(2000)0.5211375173NAO(ann)0.0923625992NAO(djf97)0.5406758481NAO'(djf)0.4871677413POL(djf)0.3360767854PNA(djf)0.2453056729WP(djf)0.0199491588SCAND-0.3364971275

1950-0.71.30.561.25

1951-0.6-0.270.565-year run.-0.550.01-0.0-0.01-0.120.47-0.4-0.3-0.40.9

1952-0.3-0.27-0.5-0.550.011.20.57-0.311.130.77-1.0-1.10.3-0.7

1953-0.2-0.27-0.38-0.550.010.10.170.47-0.010.07-0.4-0.10.2-0.3

1954-0.7-0.27-0.48-0.550.010.3-0.030.580.200.700.4-0.2-0.30.4

1955-0.1-0.27-0.46-0.550.01-0.60.14-0.57-0.73-0.03-0.5-0.4-0.4-0.5

1956-1.1-0.27-0.48-0.550.01-1.10.140.19-1.15-0.47-0.5-1.5-1.8-0.5

1957-0.2-0.27-0.34-0.550.012.10.060.032.000.73-0.5-0.2-0.80.6

1958-0.3-0.27-0.56-0.550.010.10.210.160.01-0.700.40.40.2-0.7

19590-0.27-0.3-0.550.01-0.10.820.55-0.19-0.400.2-0.3-0.0-0.6

1960-1.2-0.27-0.1-0.550.010.10.51-0.250.02-0.40-0.60.20.40.3

19610.2-0.270.02-0.550.012.00.051.121.940.60-0.31.0-0.70.6

19620.8-0.27-0.14-0.550.010.5-0.08-0.070.440.03-0.3-0.5-1.1-0.6

19630.3-0.270.04-0.550.01-2.2-0.38-0.32-2.30-0.70-0.20.6-2.0-0.5

1964-0.8-0.27-0.02-0.550.01-0.8-0.790.28-0.82-1.330.90.30.70.0

1965-0.3-0.27-0.18-0.550.01-1.4-0.66-0.18-1.49-0.33-0.4-1.1-0.7-0.5

1966-0.1-0.27-0.24-0.550.01-0.1-0.25-0.15-0.13-0.47-1.2-0.11.00.2

19670-0.27-0.5-0.550.011.1-0.530.611.070.60-0.7-0.20.20.5

19680-0.27-0.46-0.550.01-0.1-0.27-0.56-0.21-0.30-0.5-0.0-1.5-1.6

1969-2.1-0.27-0.44-0.550.01-2.2-0.31-0.4-2.26-0.97-1.2-1.10.11.0

1970-0.1-0.27-0.56-0.550.01-0.1-0.530.23-0.19-0.20-0.80.5-0.10.3

19710-0.27-0.54-0.550.01-0.3-0.19-0.65-0.21-0.770.1-1.0-0.7-0.2

1972-0.6-0.27-0.14-0.550.010.00.43-0.150.140.070.1-0.9-0.21.2

19730.1-0.270.02-0.550.011.60.84-0.181.720.800.2-0.30.40.7

1974-0.1-0.27-0.12-0.550.010.90.930.481.080.53-0.2-0.1-1.00.2

19750.7-0.27-0.04-0.550.012.00.54-0.052.110.000.7-0.30.5-0.4

1976-0.7-0.27-0.06-0.550.010.20.11-0.180.310.031.1-0.0-0.2-0.9

1977-0.2-0.27-0.12-0.550.01-1.9-0.47-0.31-1.76-1.23-0.11.30.01.1

19780-0.27-0.28-0.550.01-0.6-0.800.09-0.46-0.57-0.30.7-0.20.3

1979-0.4-0.270.06-0.550.01-2.0-0.590.04-1.84-1.33-0.7-0.40.7-0.1

1980-0.1-0.270.12-0.550.010.3-0.25-0.480.460.070.60.3-0.30.4

198110.361.20.28-0.211.351.00-0.21.0-1.1-0.4

19820.10.46-0.21.010.56-0.07-0.400.1-0.3-0.2-0.4

19831.20.362.10.840.252.230.700.20.71.1-0.5

19840.10.21.70.400.151.851.13-0.40.5-0.40.1

1985-0.60.04-0.50.52-0.57-0.40-0.30-0.7-0.0-0.50.3

19860.2-0.1-1.00.080.44-0.850.10-1.10.9-0.7-0.1

1987-0.70.120.40.34-0.610.49-0.300.01.00.8-0.0

19880.50.5-0.10.87-0.410.020.30-0.6-0.41.10.2

19891.20.740.70.091.383.01.220.463.161.071.0-0.60.6-0.8

19901.30.740.860.091.382.11.481.122.290.000.7-0.00.4-0.2

19911.20.740.780.091.380.71.790.220.880.870.70.0-0.60.5

19920.10.740.580.091.381.71.430.991.840.131.30.70.5-0.1

19930.10.740.720.091.381.41.580.021.570.571.3-0.20.4-0.6

19940.20.740.520.091.381.20.990.411.320.77-0.6-0.1-0.1-0.2

199520.740.740.091.382.90.56-0.693.050.900.70.50.0-0.6

19960.20.740.720.091.38-2.20.40-1.13-2.11-0.470.20.3-0.50.6

19971.20.740.80.091.38-0.50.48-0.28-0.31-0.070.4-0.4-0.7-0.0

199800.740.091.380.7-0.570.91.20.9-0.0

19990.60.740.091.381.61.37-0.9-0.20.5-0.7

2.31.53-0.1-0.3-1.1

Descriptive Statistics (new.sta)0.400.10.80.6

Confid.Confid.Standard0.33-0.2

Valid NMean-99.000%+99.000%MinimumMaximumStd.Dev.Error

VAR130-0.27-0.55164046380.0116404638-2.10.80.55964890470.1021774431

VAR2110.73636363640.0949582991.3777689737020.67122682790.2023825034

1

2

3

Network of ex-USSR meteorological stations with available daily data, used for the analysis of climatic extremes

Characteristics of air temperature and precipitation extremes:

- number of days per month with daily precipitation more than 30 mm;

- maximum pentad precipitation in the certain month;

- number of days per month corresponding to the atmospheric drought criteria by precipitation and maximum temperature (not counting its continuous length);

- number of days per month with minimum air temperature below the 10% probability limit (determined for the basic time series from 1951 to 1980) during 2 or more days;

- monthly sum of minimum air temperature below the 10% probability limit (determined for the base time series from 1951 to 1980);

- number of days in a month with decreasing of average daily temperature since the previous day for 7(C and more (i.e. the situations with intense cold fronts, potentially associated with squalls and tornadoes);

- days of last frost in spring and first frost in autumn;

- length of frost-free season.

Change of number of days with minimum air temperature below 10% probability limit in December February of 1989-2001 as compared to 1951-80.

Anomalies of maximum pentad sum of precipitation in December February of 1989-2001 as compared to 1951-80. Statistically insignificant changes (at 10% level) are shown in white.

Change of number of days with atmospheric drought in July of 1989-2001 as compared to 1951-80

Change of number of days with daily precipitation more than 30 mm in June August of 1989-2001 as compared to 1951-80.

Change of number of days with air temperature decrease by more than 7 since the previous day in June of 1989-2001 as compared to 1951-80.

Change of frost-free season length (days) averaged for 1989-2001 as compared to 1951-80. Statistically insignificant changes (at 5% level) are shown in white.

Conclusions Change of characteristics of climate extremes generally demonstrate milder conditions, especially in winter.

At the same time, in the east, north and center of the East European plain, the frost-free season has shortened significantly.

In separate regions of the ex-USSR, some weather extremes (intensive rains, atmospheric droughts, sharp temperature decreases) became more frequent.

Evaluation of snow cover and permafrost features in Northern Eurasia for some climate change scenarios

A.B.Shmakin

Purpose of the study: To evaluate the regime of snow cover formation and melting, as well as permafrost thawing, in contemporary conditions and under certain climate change scenarios for the 21st century.

Model:SPONSOR parameterization scheme with full description of the local energy/water exchange processes. The scheme has been involved in numerous international projects for intercomparison of such models since 1994. The model was used together with the original radiation scheme (Shmakin, 1998).

Location of the test sites in Eurasia

Air temperature in Tiksi for January of 1992 (observed) and 2062 (projected from GCM scenarios)

January

-22.5-15.3-13.14

-19.8-12.6-10.44

-21.4-14.2-12.04

-23.3-16.1-13.94

-23.9-16.7-14.54

-24.1-16.9-14.74

-25.5-18.3-16.14

-25.8-18.6-16.44

-29-21.8-19.64

-29.4-22.2-20.04

-29.1-21.9-19.74

-30.7-23.5-21.34

-30.8-23.6-21.44

-32.1-24.9-22.74

-31.1-23.9-21.74

-31.7-24.5-22.34

-32.5-25.3-23.14

-31.7-24.5-22.34

-33.2-26-23.84

-35.2-28-25.84

-37.7-30.5-28.34

-39.3-32.1-29.94

-35.3-28.1-25.94

-36.5-29.3-27.14

-37.1-29.9-27.74

-36.9-29.7-27.54

-36.1-28.9-26.74

-36.1-28.9-26.74

-37.4-30.2-28.04

-35.3-28.1-25.94

-35.1-27.9-25.74

-33.5-26.3-24.14

-32.5-25.3-23.14

-30.4-23.2-21.04

-32.7-25.5-23.34

-36.7-29.5-27.34

-38.4-31.2-29.04

-38.1-30.9-28.74

-37.4-30.2-28.04

-33-25.8-23.64

-34.8-27.6-25.44

-34.7-27.5-25.34

-34.2-27-24.84

-33.6-26.4-24.24

-31.7-24.5-22.34

-33.3-26.1-23.94

-33-25.8-23.64

-31.4-24.2-22.04

-25.1-17.9-15.74

-26.9-19.7-17.54

-32-24.8-22.64

-29.2-22-19.84

-20.5-13.3-11.14

-20.1-12.9-10.74

-19.3-12.1-9.94

-23.7-16.5-14.34

-23.1-15.9-13.74

-25.8-18.6-16.44

-30.3-23.1-20.94

-32.8-25.6-23.44

-33.9-26.7-24.54

-34.6-27.4-25.24

-30.3-23.1-20.94

-32.4-25.2-23.04

-28.9-21.7-19.54

-27.5-20.3-18.14

-23.5-16.3-14.14

-21.6-14.4-12.24

-21.5-14.3-12.14

-18.1-10.9-8.74

-21.9-14.7-12.54

-25.8-18.6-16.44

-27.7-20.5-18.34

-29.9-22.7-20.54

-31.4-24.2-22.04

-32.2-25-22.84

-35.4-28.2-26.04

-37.2-30-27.84

-37.2-30-27.84

-37.2-30-27.84

-35.4-28.2-26.04

-35.4-28.2-26.04

-39.5-32.3-30.14

-39.9-32.7-30.54

-37.7-30.5-28.34

-34.1-26.9-24.74

-34.1-26.9-24.74

-24.5-17.3-15.14

-22.7-15.5-13.34

-22.8-15.6-13.44

-22.4-15.2-13.04

-26-18.8-16.64

-22.7-15.5-13.34

-29.3-22.1-19.94

-28.7-21.5-19.34

-30.3-23.1-20.94

-30.3-23.1-20.94

-31.1-23.9-21.74

-30.5-23.3-21.14

-27.4-20.2-18.04

-23.7-16.5-14.34

-23.5-16.3-14.14

-22.9-15.7-13.54

-25-17.8-15.64

-28.8-21.6-19.44

-27.2-20-17.84

-25.8-18.6-16.44

-26.1-18.9-16.74

-26.4-19.2-17.04

-24.3-17.1-14.94

-21.3-14.1-11.94

-20.4-13.2-11.04

-20.5-13.3-11.14

-19.8-12.6-10.44

-23-15.8-13.64

-22.8-15.6-13.44

-21.9-14.7-12.54

-21.8-14.6-12.44

-21-13.8-11.64

-20.1-12.9-10.74

-23.4-16.2-14.04

-23.4-16.2-14.04

-26.1-18.9-16.74

-26.3-19.1-16.94

1992

2062(Hadley)

2062(ECHAM)

July

10.111.5412.98

13.514.9416.38

9.811.2412.68

6.47.849.28

15.617.0418.48

7.18.549.98

11.212.6414.08

6.78.149.58

1516.4417.88

10.111.5412.98

56.447.88

3.24.646.08

4.55.947.38

3.14.545.98

0.92.343.78

-1.40.041.48

-0.41.042.48

2.13.544.98

1.42.844.28

0.62.043.48

2.43.845.28

4.86.247.68

4.45.847.28

5.46.848.28

8.49.8411.28

6.47.849.28

4.86.247.68

2.53.945.38

3.34.746.18

3.75.146.58

5.26.648.08

4.15.546.98

7.28.6410.08

10.211.6413.08

10.411.8413.28

4.66.047.48

1112.4413.88

12.614.0415.48

13.314.7416.18

6.27.649.08

6.88.249.68

9.110.5411.98

6.17.548.98

3.34.746.18

2.33.745.18

2.64.045.48

2.94.345.78

2.13.544.98

1.93.344.78

3.14.545.98

3.14.545.98

45.446.88

4.76.147.58

7.18.549.98

7.18.549.98

7.18.549.98

5.97.348.78

11.813.2414.68

10.712.1413.58

8.39.7411.18

1011.4412.88

7.38.7410.18

5.46.848.28

4.15.546.98

2.53.945.38

3.14.545.98

6.17.548.98

5.26.648.08

6.88.249.68

67.448.88

5.67.048.48

2.74.145.58

5.36.748.18

12.213.6415.08

13.915.3416.78

12.714.1415.58

18.519.9421.38

18.519.9421.38

7.69.0410.48

3.75.146.58

4.66.047.48

78.449.88

7.69.0410.48

3.85.246.68

67.448.88

10.812.2413.68

6.68.049.48

3.24.646.08

4.96.347.78

10.511.9413.38

23.224.6426.08

19.320.7422.18

9.611.0412.48

9.611.0412.48

10.411.8413.28

6.47.849.28

12.814.2415.68

14.916.3417.78

16.117.5418.98

17.318.7420.18

23.524.9426.38

24.125.5426.98

910.4411.88

7.79.1410.58

78.449.88

11.613.0414.48

7.58.9410.38

5.87.248.68

5.26.648.08

4.86.247.68

4.55.947.38

4.55.947.38

5.67.048.48

8.910.3411.78

89.4410.88

23.444.88

7.38.7410.18

8.610.0411.48

67.448.88

3.14.545.98

4.55.947.38

78.449.88

7.89.2410.68

6.27.649.08

1992

2062(Hadley)

2062(ECHAM)

1

19922062(Hadley)2062(ECHAM)19922062(Hadley)2062(ECHAM)

-22.5-15.3-13.1410.111.5412.98-295.66-288.46-286.3-263.06-261.62-260.18

-19.8-12.6-10.4413.514.9416.38-292.96-285.76-283.6-259.66-258.22-256.78

-21.4-14.2-12.049.811.2412.68-294.56-287.36-285.2-263.36-261.92-260.48

-23.3-16.1-13.946.47.849.28-296.46-289.26-287.1-266.76-265.32-263.88

-23.9-16.7-14.5415.617.0418.48-297.06-289.86-287.7-257.56-256.12-254.68

-24.1-16.9-14.747.18.549.98-297.26-290.06-287.9-266.06-264.62-263.18

-25.5-18.3-16.1411.212.6414.08-298.66-291.46-289.3-261.96-260.52-259.08

-25.8-18.6-16.446.78.149.58-298.96-291.76-289.6-266.46-265.02-263.58

-29-21.8-19.641516.4417.88-302.16-294.96-292.8-258.16-256.72-255.28

-29.4-22.2-20.0410.111.5412.98-302.56-295.36-293.2-263.06-261.62-260.18

-29.1-21.9-19.7456.447.88-302.26-295.06-292.9-268.16-266.72-265.28

-30.7-23.5-21.343.24.646.08-303.86-296.66-294.5-269.96-268.52-267.08

-30.8-23.6-21.444.55.947.38-303.96-296.76-294.6-268.66-267.22-265.78

-32.1-24.9-22.743.14.545.98-305.26-298.06-295.9-270.06-268.62-267.18

-31.1-23.9-21.740.92.343.78-304.26-297.06-294.9-272.26-270.82-269.38

-31.7-24.5-22.34-1.40.041.48-304.86-297.66-295.5-274.56-273.12-271.68

-32.5-25.3-23.14-0.41.042.48-305.66-298.46-296.3-273.56-272.12-270.68

-31.7-24.5-22.342.13.544.98-304.86-297.66-295.5-271.06-269.62-268.18

-33.2-26-23.841.42.844.28-306.36-299.16-297-271.76-270.32-268.88

-35.2-28-25.840.62.043.48-308.36-301.16-299-272.56-271.12-269.68

-37.7-30.5-28.342.43.845.28-310.86-303.66-301.5-270.76-269.32-267.88

-39.3-32.1-29.944.86.247.68-312.46-305.26-303.1-268.36-266.92-265.48

-35.3-28.1-25.944.45.847.28-308.46-301.26-299.1-268.76-267.32-265.88

-36.5-29.3-27.145.46.848.28-309.66-302.46-300.3-267.76-266.32-264.88

-37.1-29.9-27.748.49.8411.28-310.26-303.06-300.9-264.76-263.32-261.88

-36.9-29.7-27.546.47.849.28-310.06-302.86-300.7-266.76-265.32-263.88

-36.1-28.9-26.744.86.247.68-309.26-302.06-299.9-268.36-266.92-265.48

-36.1-28.9-26.742.53.945.38-309.26-302.06-299.9-270.66-269.22-267.78

-37.4-30.2-28.043.34.746.18-310.56-303.36-301.2-269.86-268.42-266.98

-35.3-28.1-25.943.75.146.58-308.46-301.26-299.1-269.46-268.02-266.58

-35.1-27.9-25.745.26.648.08-308.26-301.06-298.9-267.96-266.52-265.08

-33.5-26.3-24.144.15.546.98-306.66-299.46-297.3-269.06-267.62-266.18

-32.5-25.3-23.147.28.6410.08-305.66-298.46-296.3-265.96-264.52-263.08

-30.4-23.2-21.0410.211.6413.08-303.56-296.36-294.2-262.96-261.52-260.08

-32.7-25.5-23.3410.411.8413.28-305.86-298.66-296.5-262.76-261.32-259.88

-36.7-29.5-27.344.66.047.48-309.86-302.66-300.5-268.56-267.12-265.68

-38.4-31.2-29.041112.4413.88-311.56-304.36-302.2-262.16-260.72-259.28

-38.1-30.9-28.7412.614.0415.48-311.26-304.06-301.9-260.56-259.12-257.68

-37.4-30.2-28.0413.314.7416.18-310.56-303.36-301.2-259.86-258.42-256.98

-33-25.8-23.646.27.649.08-306.16-298.96-296.8-266.96-265.52-264.08

-34.8-27.6-25.446.88.249.68-307.96-300.76-298.6-266.36-264.92-263.48

-34.7-27.5-25.349.110.5411.98-307.86-300.66-298.5-264.06-262.62-261.18

-34.2-27-24.846.17.548.98-307.36-300.16-298-267.06-265.62-264.18

-33.6-26.4-24.243.34.746.18-306.76-299.56-297.4-269.86-268.42-266.98

-31.7-24.5-22.342.33.745.18-304.86-297.66-295.5-270.86-269.42-267.98

-33.3-26.1-23.942.64.045.48-306.46-299.26-297.1-270.56-269.12-267.68

-33-25.8-23.642.94.345.78-306.16-298.96-296.8-270.26-268.82-267.38

-31.4-24.2-22.042.13.544.98-304.56-297.36-295.2-271.06-269.62-268.18

-25.1-17.9-15.741.93.344.78-298.26-291.06-288.9-271.26-269.82-268.38

-26.9-19.7-17.543.14.545.98-300.06-292.86-290.7-270.06-268.62-267.18

-32-24.8-22.643.14.545.98-305.16-297.96-295.8-270.06-268.62-267.18

-29.2-22-19.8445.446.88-302.36-295.16-293-269.16-267.72-266.28

-20.5-13.3-11.144.76.147.58-293.66-286.46-284.3-268.46-267.02-265.58

-20.1-12.9-10.747.18.549.98-293.26-286.06-283.9-266.06-264.62-263.18

-19.3-12.1-9.947.18.549.98-292.46-285.26-283.1-266.06-264.62-263.18

-23.7-16.5-14.347.18.549.98-296.86-289.66-287.5-266.06-264.62-263.18

-23.1-15.9-13.745.97.348.78-296.26-289.06-286.9-267.26-265.82-264.38

-25.8-18.6-16.4411.813.2414.68-298.96-291.76-289.6-261.36-259.92-258.48

-30.3-23.1-20.9410.712.1413.58-303.46-296.26-294.1-262.46-261.02-259.58

-32.8-25.6-23.448.39.7411.18-305.96-298.76-296.6-264.86-263.42-261.98

-33.9-26.7-24.541011.4412.88-307.06-299.86-297.7-263.16-261.72-260.28

-34.6-27.4-25.247.38.7410.18-307.76-300.56-298.4-265.86-264.42-262.98

-30.3-23.1-20.945.46.848.28-303.46-296.26-294.1-267.76-266.32-264.88

-32.4-25.2-23.044.15.546.98-305.56-298.36-296.2-269.06-267.62-266.18

-28.9-21.7-19.542.53.945.38-302.06-294.86-292.7-270.66-269.22-267.78

-27.5-20.3-18.143.14.545.98-300.66-293.46-291.3-270.06-268.62-267.18

-23.5-16.3-14.146.17.548.98-296.66-289.46-287.3-267.06-265.62-264.18

-21.6-14.4-12.245.26.648.08-294.76-287.56-285.4-267.96-266.52-265.08

-21.5-14.3-12.146.88.249.68-294.66-287.46-285.3-266.36-264.92-263.48

-18.1-10.9-8.7467.448.88-291.26-284.06-281.9-267.16-265.72-264.28

-21.9-14.7-12.545.67.048.48-295.06-287.86-285.7-267.56-266.12-264.68

-25.8-18.6-16.442.74.145.58-298.96-291.76-289.6-270.46-269.02-267.58

-27.7-20.5-18.345.36.748.18-300.86-293.66-291.5-267.86-266.42-264.98

-29.9-22.7-20.5412.213.6415.08-303.06-295.86-293.7-260.96-259.52-258.08

-31.4-24.2-22.0413.915.3416.78-304.56-297.36-295.2-259.26-257.82-256.38

-32.2-25-22.8412.714.1415.58-305.36-298.16-296-260.46-259.02-257.58

-35.4-28.2-26.0418.519.9421.38-308.56-301.36-299.2-254.66-253.22-251.78

-37.2-30-27.8418.519.9421.38-310.36-303.16-301-254.66-253.22-251.78

-37.2-30-27.847.69.0410.48-310.36-303.16-301-265.56-264.12-262.68

-37.2-30-27.843.75.146.58-310.36-303.16-301-269.46-268.02-266.58

-35.4-28.2-26.044.66.047.48-308.56-301.36-299.2-268.56-267.12-265.68

-35.4-28.2-26.0478.449.88-308.56-301.36-299.2-266.16-264.72-263.28

-39.5-32.3-30.147.69.0410.48-312.66-305.46-303.3-265.56-264.12-262.68

-39.9-32.7-30.543.85.246.68-313.06-305.86-303.7-269.36-267.92-266.48

-37.7-30.5-28.3467.448.88-310.86-303.66-301.5-267.16-265.72-264.28

-34.1-26.9-24.7410.812.2413.68-307.26-300.06-297.9-262.36-260.92-259.48

-34.1-26.9-24.746.68.049.48-307.26-300.06-297.9-266.56-265.12-263.68

-24.5-17.3-15.143.24.646.08-297.66-290.46-288.3-269.96-268.52-267.08

-22.7-15.5-13.344.96.347.78-295.86-288.66-286.5-268.26-266.82-265.38

-22.8-15.6-13.4410.511.9413.38-295.96-288.76-286.6-262.66-261.22-259.78

-22.4-15.2-13.0423.224.6426.08-295.56-288.36-286.2-249.96-248.52-247.08

-26-18.8-16.6419.320.7422.18-299.16-291.96-289.8-253.86-252.42-250.98

-22.7-15.5-13.349.611.0412.48-295.86-288.66-286.5-263.56-262.12-260.68

-29.3-22.1-19.949.611.0412.48-302.46-295.26-293.1-263.56-262.12-260.68

-28.7-21.5-19.3410.411.8413.28-301.86-294.66-292.5-262.76-261.32-259.88

-30.3-23.1-20.946.47.849.28-303.46-296.26-294.1-266.76-265.32-263.88

-30.3-23.1-20.9412.814.2415.68-303.46-296.26-294.1-260.36-258.92-257.48

-31.1-23.9-21.7414.916.3417.78-304.26-297.06-294.9-258.26-256.82-255.38

-30.5-23.3-21.1416.117.5418.98-303.66-296.46-294.3-257.06-255.62-254.18

-27.4-20.2-18.0417.318.7420.18-300.56-293.36-291.2-255.86-254.42-252.98

-23.7-16.5-14.3423.524.9426.38-296.86-289.66-287.5-249.66-248.22-246.78

-23.5-16.3-14.1424.125.5426.98-296.66-289.46-287.3-249.06-247.62-246.18

-22.9-15.7-13.54910.4411.88-296.06-288.86-286.7-264.16-262.72-261.28

-25-17.8-15.647.79.1410.58-298.16-290.96-288.8-265.46-264.02-262.58

-28.8-21.6-19.4478.449.88-301.96-294.76-292.6-266.16-264.72-263.28

-27.2-20-17.8411.613.0414.48-300.36-293.16-291-261.56-260.12-258.68

-25.8-18.6-16.447.58.9410.38-298.96-291.76-289.6-265.66-264.22-262.78

-26.1-18.9-16.745.87.248.68-299.26-292.06-289.9-267.36-265.92-264.48

-26.4-19.2-17.045.26.648.08-299.56-292.36-290.2-267.96-266.52-265.08

-24.3-17.1-14.944.86.247.68-297.46-290.26-288.1-268.36-266.92-265.48

-21.3-14.1-11.944.55.947.38-294.46-287.26-285.1-268.66-267.22-265.78

-20.4-13.2-11.044.55.947.38-293.56-286.36-284.2-268.66-267.22-265.78

-20.5-13.3-11.145.67.048.48-293.66-286.46-284.3-267.56-266.12-264.68

-19.8-12.6-10.448.910.3411.78-292.96-285.76-283.6-264.26-262.82-261.38

-23-15.8-13.6489.4410.88-296.16-288.96-286.8-265.16-263.72-262.28

-22.8-15.6-13.4423.444.88-295.96-288.76-286.6-271.16-269.72-268.28

-21.9-14.7-12.547.38.7410.18-295.06-287.86-285.7-265.86-264.42-262.98

-21.8-14.6-12.448.610.0411.48-294.96-287.76-285.6-264.56-263.12-261.68

-21-13.8-11.6467.448.88-294.16-286.96-284.8-267.16-265.72-264.28

-20.1-12.9-10.743.14.545.98-293.26-286.06-283.9-270.06-268.62-267.18

-23.4-16.2-14.044.55.947.38-296.56-289.36-287.2-268.66-267.22-265.78

-23.4-16.2-14.0478.449.88-296.56-289.36-287.2-266.16-264.72-263.28

-26.1-18.9-16.747.89.2410.68-299.26-292.06-289.9-265.36-263.92-262.48

-26.3-19.1-16.946.27.649.08-299.46-292.26-290.1-266.96-265.52-264.08

2

3

Average of annual maximum SWEs (mm) at the test sites

1

1014898842

894771739

789613574

1990s

Hadley

ECHAM

1

TuruhanskOlekminskTiksiYakutskNarian-Mar

1990s10148947891089392

Hadley8987716131076231

ECHAM842739574108177

Forest/bush

Contemporary10279097911097387

Hadley8997776121083200

ECHAM830741572108666

2

3

Average of annual maximum soil temperatures at .7 m depth, marsh

1

1014898842

894771739

789613574

1990s

Hadley

ECHAM

tg2

288290290.1

287.1290.2291.8

292.5295.3297.8

290.3294.1294.9

275.7277.9280.2

1990s

Hadley

ECHAM

tg3

276.1277.5277.7

275.3276.6277.4

277.4278.7279.6

273.6275.3275.8

266.9267.5268.3

1990s

Hadley

ECHAM

tg4

271.7272.2272.5

270.5270.5270.9

270.8271.2271.6

266.4266.5266.8

261.2261.7262

1990s

Hadley

ECHAM

1

SWE_max


1990s10148947891089392

Hadley8987716131076231

ECHAM842739574108177

Forest/bush

1990s10279097911097387

Hadley8997776121083200

ECHAM830741572108666

Tundra/marsh

Tg1Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi

1990s319318.7329.4330.3301.1

Hadley322.8326333.4334.1303.5

ECHAM322.9331.1335.8336.2306.5


1990s288287.1292.5290.3275.7

Hadley290290.2295.3294.1277.9

ECHAM290.1291.8297.8294.9280.2


1990s276.1275.3277.4273.6266.9

Hadley277.5276.6278.7275.3267.5

ECHAM277.7277.4279.6275.8268.3


1990s271.7270.5270.8266.4261.2

Hadley272.2270.5271.2266.5261.7

ECHAM272.5270.9271.6266.8262

Forest/bush


1990s303.4296.7304.3305.4290.9

Hadley307.3302.3310.3310.1293.1

ECHAM308305.1314.9311.9296.1


1990s285.2285.4287.9288.2277.3

Hadley288.9288.5291.4291278.5

ECHAM289.3290.2293.3292.4280


1990s279279280277.9272.2

Hadley281.1280.2281.4278.9272.3

ECHAM281.2281.2282.7280273.2


1990s273.2273273.1269.8266.2

Hadley273.2272.9272.7268.4263.8

ECHAM273.2273.2273.1268.8264.6

2

3

Average of annual maximum soil temperatures at .7 m depth, bush

1

1014898842

894771739

789613574

1990s

Hadley

ECHAM

tg2

288290290.1

287.1290.2291.8

292.5295.3297.8

290.3294.1294.9

275.7277.9280.2

1990s

Hadley

ECHAM

tg3

276.1277.5277.7

275.3276.6277.4

277.4278.7279.6

273.6275.3275.8

266.9267.5268.3

1990s

Hadley

ECHAM

tg4

271.7272.2272.5

270.5270.5270.9

270.8271.2271.6

266.4266.5266.8

261.2261.7262

1990s

Hadley

ECHAM

tg3_m

279281.1281.2

279280.2281.2

280281.4282.7

277.9278.9280

272.2272.3273.2

1990s

Hadley

ECHAM

1

SWE_max


1990s10148947891089392

Hadley8987716131076231

ECHAM842739574108177

Forest/bush

1990s10279097911097387

Hadley8997776121083200

ECHAM830741572108666

Tundra/marsh

Tg1Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi1990sHadleyECHAM

1990s319318.7329.4330.3301.13190.05322.80.05322.90.05

Hadley322.8326333.4334.1303.51990sDHadleyDECHAMDTmeltD

ECHAM322.9331.1335.8336.2306.52880.252900.25290.10.25273.160.25

276.10.7277.50.7277.70.7273.160.7

Tg2Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi271.72272.22272.52273.162

1990s288287.1292.5290.3275.7

Hadley290290.2295.3294.1277.9

ECHAM290.1291.8297.8294.9280.2


1990s276.1275.3277.4273.6266.9

Hadley277.5276.6278.7275.3267.5

ECHAM277.7277.4279.6275.8268.3


1990s271.7270.5270.8266.4261.2

Hadley272.2270.5271.2266.5261.7

ECHAM272.5270.9271.6266.8262

Forest/bush


1990s303.4296.7304.3305.4290.9

Hadley307.3302.3310.3310.1293.1

ECHAM308305.1314.9311.9296.1


1990s285.2285.4287.9288.2277.3

Hadley288.9288.5291.4291278.5

ECHAM289.3290.2293.3292.4280


1990s279279280277.9272.2

Hadley281.1280.2281.4278.9272.3

ECHAM281.2281.2282.7280273.2


1990s273.2273273.1269.8266.2

Hadley273.2272.9272.7268.4263.8

ECHAM273.2273.2273.1268.8264.6

2

3

Average of annual maximum soil temperatures at 2 m depth, marsh

1

1014898842

894771739

789613574

1990s

Hadley

ECHAM

tg2

288290290.1

287.1290.2291.8

292.5295.3297.8

290.3294.1294.9

275.7277.9280.2

1990s

Hadley

ECHAM

tg3

276.1277.5277.7

275.3276.6277.4

277.4278.7279.6

273.6275.3275.8

266.9267.5268.3

1990s

Hadley

ECHAM

tg4

271.7272.2272.5

270.5270.5270.9

270.8271.2271.6

266.4266.5266.8

261.2261.7262

1990s

Hadley

ECHAM

1

SWE_max


1990s10148947891089392

Hadley8987716131076231

ECHAM842739574108177

Forest/bush

1990s10279097911097387

Hadley8997776121083200

ECHAM830741572108666

Tundra/marsh


1990s319318.7329.4330.3301.1

Hadley322.8326333.4334.1303.5

ECHAM322.9331.1335.8336.2306.5


1990s288287.1292.5290.3275.7

Hadley290290.2295.3294.1277.9

ECHAM290.1291.8297.8294.9280.2


1990s276.1275.3277.4273.6266.9

Hadley277.5276.6278.7275.3267.5

ECHAM277.7277.4279.6275.8268.3


1990s271.7270.5270.8266.4261.2

Hadley272.2270.5271.2266.5261.7

ECHAM272.5270.9271.6266.8262

Forest/bush


1990s303.4296.7304.3305.4290.9

Hadley307.3302.3310.3310.1293.1

ECHAM308305.1314.9311.9296.1


1990s285.2285.4287.9288.2277.3

Hadley288.9288.5291.4291278.5

ECHAM289.3290.2293.3292.4280


1990s279279280277.9272.2

Hadley281.1280.2281.4278.9272.3

ECHAM281.2281.2282.7280273.2


1990s273.2273273.1269.8266.2

Hadley273.2272.9272.7268.4263.8

ECHAM273.2273.2273.1268.8264.6

2

3

Average of annual maximum soil temperatures at 2 m depth, bush

1

1014898842

894771739

789613574

1990s

Hadley

ECHAM

tg2

288290290.1

287.1290.2291.8

292.5295.3297.8

290.3294.1294.9

275.7277.9280.2

1990s

Hadley

ECHAM

tg3

276.1277.5277.7

275.3276.6277.4

277.4278.7279.6

273.6275.3275.8

266.9267.5268.3

1990s

Hadley

ECHAM

tg4

271.7272.2272.5

270.5270.5270.9

270.8271.2271.6

266.4266.5266.8

261.2261.7262

1990s

Hadley

ECHAM

tg3_m

279281.1281.2

279280.2281.2

280281.4282.7

277.9278.9280

272.2272.3273.2

1990s

Hadley

ECHAM

tg4_m

273.2273.2273.2

273273273.2

272.7273273.1

268.4268.8269.8

263.8264.6266.2

1990s

Hadley

ECHAM

1

SWE_max


1990s10148947891089392

Hadley8987716131076231

ECHAM842739574108177

Forest/bush

1990s10279097911097387

Hadley8997776121083200

ECHAM830741572108666

Tundra/marsh

Tg1Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi1990sHadleyECHAM

1990s319318.7329.4330.3301.13190.05322.80.05322.90.05

Hadley322.8326333.4334.1303.51990sDHadleyDECHAMDTmeltD

ECHAM322.9331.1335.8336.2306.52880.252900.25290.10.25273.160.25

276.10.7277.50.7277.70.7273.160.7

Tg2Narian-MarTuruhanskOlekminskYakutskTiksi271.72272.22272.52273.162

1990s288287.1292.5290.3275.7

Hadley290290.2295.3294.1277.9

ECHAM290.1291.8297.8294.9280.2


1990s276.1275.3277.4273.6266.9

Hadley277.5276.6278.7275.3267.5

ECHAM277.7277.4279.6275.8268.3


1990s271.7270.5270.8266.4261.2

Hadley272.2270.5271.2266.5261.7

ECHAM272.5270.9271.6266.8262

Forest/bush


1990s303.4296.7304.3305.4290.9

Hadley307.3302.3310.3310.1293.1

ECHAM308305.1314.9311.9296.1


1990s285.2285.4287.9288.2277.3

Hadley288.9288.5291.4291278.5

ECHAM289.3290.2293.3292.4280


1990s279279280277.9272.2

Hadley281.1280.2281.4278.9272.3

ECHAM281.2281.2282.7280273.2


1990s273.2273272.7268.4263.8

Hadley273.2273273268.8264.6

ECHAM273.2273.2273.1269.8266.2

2

3

ConclusionsAt the wetter sites, no qualitative changes in the permafrost regime take place in the coming 70 years. At the dryer sites under the ECHAM scenario, the permafrost will start to thaw in 2060s at 0.7 m in Tiksi and at 2 m in Turuhansk.The rate of soil temperature increase in the coming 70 years does not exceed 1.5C at wetter sites, and 2.5C at dryer sites. This is due to considerable soil heat capacity and low soil heat conductivity in the permafrost areas.The snow water equivalent at the sites will decrease to some extent under the climate change scenarios.

andrey b.shmakin

Documents