2013 Outlook of the Global Automotive Industry An OEM expected to hit 10 million sales. Global vehicles in operation
to exceed 1 billion.
M930-18
February 2013
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Research Team
Mohamed Mubarak Moosa Programme Manager
Automotive and Transportation
+90 212 709 8804
Shwetha Surender Senior Research Analyst
Automotive and Transportation
+91 44 6160 6666
Lead Analyst Contributing Analyst
Research Director
Martyn Briggs Programme Manager
Automotive and Transportation
+44 207 915 7830
Strategic Review Committee Leader
Sarwant Singh Partner and Business Unit Leader
Automotive and Transportation
+44 207 915 7843
Special Thanks
Jason Huang
Consulting Director -
China
Vivek Vaidya
Vice President, Asia
Pacific
Lisa Whalen
Vice President, North
America
Masaki Honda
Consultant - Japan
Krishnasami Rajagopalan
Programme Manager - EU
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Contents
Section Slide Numbers
Executive Summary 7
Top 5 Key Predictions and Trends for 2013 8
Highlights of 2012 9
Winners of 2012 10
Top 5 Markets by Sales in 2012 11
Indonesia and the Global Context 12
Global Light Vehicle Sales by Region in 2013 – A Snapshot 13
Global Light Vehicle Sales by OEM in 2013 – A Snapshot 14
Key Regional Market – Europe (G5 vs E5) 15
Key Regional Market – Emerging Economies (BRIC Vs. N5) 16
Key Regional Market (US and Japan) 17
ASEAN Vehicle Production 18
Global Electric Vehicle Sales – 2012 19
Key Launches in 2013 20
Research Scope, Objectives, Background and Methodology 22
Research Scope 23
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Contents (continued)
Section Slide Numbers
Key OEM Groups Compared in this Study 24
Key Global OEMs – Luxury Brand Portfolio 25
Vehicle Segment Definitions 26
Key Markets to Watch-Out 27
Budget Car Syndrome is Back 28
Attractive Vehicle Segment 29
Top OEMs in the Global Compact Market 30
Global Light Vehicle Sales by Segment in 2013 – Developed Markets 31
Global Light Vehicle Sales by Segment in 2013 – Emerging Markets 32
LV Market in ASEAN 33
Global SUV and Pick-Up Market 34
Top 10 SUV and Pick-Up Market 35
Key Luxury Vehicle Markets 37
Key OEMs Strategies for Luxury Car Market 39
Outlook of Global Carsharing 2013 41
Outlook of Global Peer-to-peer Carsharing 2013 42
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Contents (continued)
Section Slide Numbers
OEM Mobility Strategies 43
eRetailing Market Outlook for 2013-14 44
Evolution of the Bricks and Clicks Model in New Car Retailing 45
eRetailing Strategy of OEMs 47
Body Styling Strategy of OEMs 48
Body Styling Strategy in 2013 49
Body Styling Trends – Key Segment Analysis 50
Electric Vehicle Sales – 2012 51
EV Market Outlook for 2013-14 52
Powertrain Market Outlook 53
Global Powertrain Mix by Region in 2013 [Sales] – A Snapshot 54
Key Powertrain Technologies to watch 55
Top 5 Powertrain Investments by OEMs 57
Infotainment and Telematics Outlook – Top 5 Predictions 58
Infotainment and Telematics Outlook – 2012 NA Market Highlights 59
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Contents (continued)
Section Slide Numbers
Infotainment and Telematics Outlook - 2012 EU Market Highlights 60
Infotainment and Telematics Outlook - 2012 China Market Highlights 61
Standard vs. Optional Features 62
Global Light Vehicles in Operation 63
Top 20 Parts Aftermarket Products 64
Global Aftermarket - Hot Spots 65
Key Conclusions 67
Appendix 69
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Executive Summary
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Top 5 Key Predictions and Trends for 2013
Top 5 Predictions for 2013 Top 5 Trends for 2013
• China will sell 20 million vehicles
• Budget car syndrome is back: Compact vehicles priced
$10,000–$15,000 are expected to further increase their popularity
in developed economies, with a share of about 29 per cent.
• An OEM will sell over 10 million
units in 2013
• Small is the new big: Small/compact SUVs and cross-overs are
to account for about 50 per cent of the overall SUV and pickup
market
• There will be at least one inter-brand
JV between OEMs this year, and a
consolidation or M&A
• Rich get richer: The luxury market is to grow in BRIC
economies, and China could continue to be the second-largest
market for luxury vehicles. 17-20 luxury vehicle models are
expected to be launched in 2013.
• On-line vehicle retailing to take off
in 2013 with OEMs implementing an
Omni channel strategy to sell more
vehicles digitally
• Mobility to reinvent the automobile industry: OEMs are likely
to be aggressive in entering and expanding the carsharing
network, and also launching new urban mobility models and
platforms, including in new regions such as Asia and Latin
America.
• Autonomous Driving to be the most
exciting topic of Research and
Development in 2013 with a possibility
of a trial test in sub-city condition
going live by end of 2013/early 2014
• Leasing: An increase in leasing contracts in key Western
countries as well as in China is likely.
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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Highlights of 2012 The growth in the US and China balanced the decline in Europe, while the Indonesian market grew
exponentially to achieve vehicle sales of over 1 million.
Key Highlights
• 2012 witnessed a world record of 1 billion cars on the road globally for the first time in history.
• In spite of the slow economic recovery, the US automotive market grew at a rate of 13.8 per cent in
2012, while the Chinese market remained the world’s largest car market, hitting the 19 million sales.
• The Thai and Indonesian automotive markets crossed the 1 million vehicle sales in 2012. The ASEAN
market as a whole grew by 34 per cent to become the eighth-largest market in the world.
• 10,000 cars were sold online in the US, EU, Australia and China for the first time. This is expected to
grow to 4.5 million units by 2020. OEMs such as Ford, GM and Dacia launched inline sales Web sites in
2012.
• OEMs have increased their focus on Integrated Mobility, which is clear from Daimler’s launch of Moovel
and Leaseplan’s MobilityMixx, following the success of NS Business.
• Among the top ten OEMs, Honda had the highest growth rate of 23 per cent, followed closely by
Toyota at 21 per cent. Both the OEMs had recovered from their tsunami-affected 2011 sales. Most of
Honda’s growth was due to high sales in the US and Japan.
• The sale of electric vehicles increased by over 154 per cent and over 109,700 units.
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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Winners of 2012 Toyota regained its position with 21 per cent growth, while VW remains the undisputed leader.
5.7 6.1
7.2 7
7.4 7.5
7 8.4
8.1
8.8
2011 2012
OEMs Growth
Rate (%) Trend
Volkswagen 8.86%
Toyota 20.95%
GM 1.16%
Renault-
Nissan (RN) (2.05%)
Hyundai
(HMC) 7.64%
Ford 0.17%
Fiat-Chrysler 4.75%
Honda 22.99%
PSA (11.82%)
Suzuki 3.81%
China, Germany and Brazil were the top three markets for
Volkswagen (VW) in 2012. Globally, the Polo and the Jetta were
the main contributors to VW’s sales growth.
Japan and the US, each accounted for one-fourth of Toyota’s
global sales. Toyota’s sales in China declined by 4.9 per cent due
to the consumer backlash cause by political strife.
The US continued to be the most successful market for GM, with
the re-launched Silverado driving sales. GM competed with VW to
retain sales leadership in China in 2012. The Chevy Lacetti was
its most successful model in China. GM also benefitted from high
sales for the Sonic and Cruze models. This indicates more demand
for smaller cars due to sustained high gas prices.
Renault entered the micro-mobility market with the launch of the
Twizy in March 2012. Slower European sales were offset by growth
in the US, China and the emerging markets of Brazil, Mexico and
India. The Nissan Sunny was the most successful model in the
emerging markets.
China was Hyundai’s largest market in 2012, with sales growing in
the wake of boycotting Japanese products. Sales in the US also
witnessed a sizeable growth of 12 per cent. In the US, the Sonata
was the most successful model, while in China, the Elantra was the
largest-selling model.
VW
Toyota
GM
RN
HMC
Automotive Industry Outlook: OEM Light Vehicle
Sales, Global, 2011, 2012
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2012. The data from
LMC accounts only for 65 out of 190 countries.
Years
Un
its (
Millio
n)
Sources: LMC forecasting, Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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Top 5 Markets by Sales in 2012 The US market continued its ascent and the Japanese market rebounded; the UK was the only market that
witnessed positive growth in Europe
3.3
3.6
5.1
14.5
19.3
0 10 20 30
Germany
Brazil
Japan
USA
China
2012 2011
7.0%
13.8%
22.8%
11.0%
(3.0%)
Increasing customer confidence, declining prices as well as
discounts increased LV sales in China, post Q3. European
OEMs sold more in China than in Europe, while Japanese
OEMs experienced declining sales in China.
The US market witnessed positive growth for the third
consecutive year. Demand for pickups and SUVs drove the
market, with the SUV and Pickup segment accounting for
over 42 per cent of the light vehicle sales.
Boosted by subsidy programmes, the Japanese market
witnessed a recovery in 2012. Emerging after the natural
calamity, the government had allocated about JPY 300 billion
($3.8 billion) to incentivize customers to buy ‘eco cars’.
The stimulus programme boosted the LV market in Brazil.
Reduction in the IPI tax also helped increase vehicle sales.
Fiat was the market leader, followed by VW and GM
(Chevrolet).
The market in Europe’s largest economy (Germany) declined
by 3 per cent due to the Euro crisis.
Units (million)
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2012. Sources: LMC forecasting, Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Automotive Industry Outlook:
Top 5 Light Vehicle Markets by Sales, Global,
2011–2012
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Indonesia and the Global Context Among the major passenger car markets of the world, Indonesia has climbed up four places to the 14th position.
In 2012, Indonesia was one of the three fastest-growing car markets in the world.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
7%
13.8%
22.8%
3.4% 5% 10%
5% 6.5%
56.0%
39.3% 8.0%
9.0% 0.1%
(3%) (13.3%) (21.0%)
(8%) (5.5%) (10.0%)
(13.4%) (5.0%)
• Indonesia is among the fastest-growing markets in the world for passenger cars, matched only by Russia and Thailand.
• Despite the phenomenal growth rate, Indonesia has only seen marginal progress in the global market. • This outlines its dependence on ASEAN as a region to attract more investments and Indonesia's ability to share in
the investments.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Un
its
(M
illi
on
)
Automotive Industry Outlook: Top 21 Automotive Markets, Global, 2012
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2012. Sources: LMC forecasting, Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Indonesia Jump from
18th to 14h rank
Thailand Jump from
19th to 13th rank
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Global Light Vehicle Sales by Region in 2013—A Snapshot China to cross 20 million sales, and the US to reach 15 million sales, but the market in Europe still in red
Note: Africa - South Africa
Asia - Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, New Zealand
Eastern Europe – Bulgaria, Bosnia, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey,
Ukraine
The Middle East – Egypt, Iran
North America - Canada, Mexico, USA
Latin America - Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Uruguay, Venezuela
Western Europe - Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the UK
Others – Rest of the countries in the region/world Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2012. Sources: LMC forecasting, Frost & Sullivan analysis.
2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Africa Asia EasternEurope
TheMiddleEast
NorthAmerica
LatinAmerica
WesternEurope
Rest ofthe World
Automotive Industry Outlook: Light Vehicle Sales, Global, 2012–2013 U
nit
s (
Mil
lio
n)
~ 83.5 Million
Africa 1%
Asia 41%
Eastern Europe 6%
The Middle East 2%
North America 21%
Others 6%
Western Europe 15%
2012
Africa 1%
Asia 42%
Eastern Europe 6%
The Middle East 2%
North America 21%
Others 5%
Latin America 7%
Western Europe 16%
80.4 Million
Latin America 7%
3.9% YoY growth (2012–13)
China 20.0
Japan 4.7
India 3.3
Other 3.5
South Korea 1.5
Indonesia 1
Russia 3
Others 0.9
Poland 0.3
Turkey 0.8
Mexico 1.0 Canada 1.7
USA 15
Iran 1.7
Others 0.3 Brazil 3.9
Argentina 0.8 Others 2.9
France 2.2 Germany
3.2
Italy 1.5
Spain 0.7 UK 2.3
Other 1.1
5.03
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Global Light Vehicle Sales by OEM in 2013—A Snapshot European OEMs are banking on growth in emerging markets to offset the downturn in Europe
0 2 4 6 8 10
Geely Group
Tata Group
Daimler Group
BMW Group
Other Chinese…
Suzuki Group
PSA Group
Honda Group
Fiat-Chrysler Group
Ford Group
Hyundai Group
Renault-Nissan Group
General Motors Group
Toyota Group
Volkswagen Group
Units (Million) 2013 2012
2.03%
6.8%
4.57%
4.17%
3.99%
6.47%
2.10%
8.44%
4.00%
(1.09%)
22.86%
2.57%
6.95%
12.34%
19.35%
Automotive Industry Outlook: Light Vehicle Sales by OEM, Global, 2012–2013
• With political strife affecting the sales
of Japanese OEMs in China, VW and
GM are likely to increase their share in
China.
• GM is expected to launch two new
models, and is investing in expanding
its dealerships and production facilities
to drive sales in China.
• For the NA market, GM is focusing on
its pickup range.
• Ford is focusing on compact segment
sales with the re-launched Focus and
Fusion in 2013.
• Honda is relying on growth in sales of
its compact segment models such as
the Fit and its diesel engine models in
the emerging markets.
• Daimler's growth in 2013 is to be
driven by the A-Class’s expansion into
additional markets. The new S-Class,
E-Class and CLA will probably further
drive sales and help regain market
share. Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2012.
The data from LMC accounts only for 65 out of 190 countries.
Who can reach 10 million vehicle sales in 2013?
Sources: LMC forecasting, Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Growth Rate
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- 2 4
The CzechRepublic
Ukraine
Poland
Turkey
Russia
Spain
Italy
UK
France
Germany
2013 2012
2.0%
5.0%
(3.0%)
(0.5%)
3.4%
(5%)
0.3%
2%
(3%)
(4%)
1%
5%
(3%)
(10%)
10%
(13%)
(21%)
5%
(13%)
(3%)
• The West European LV market declined by 8.5
per cent in 2012 due to the uncertainties of the
Euro crisis, which affected the largest auto
markets such as Germany and France, along with
the continued decline in Italy and Spain.
• With uncertainties prevailing in the market, the
outlook for 2013 is conservative, with a 1.5 per
cent decline expected in West Europe.
• The UK was the only LV market that witnessed an
increase in sales in 2012, and is expected to
experience the same the next year as well.
• Although the recession affected the auto market in
Italy, causing a decline of 21 per cent in 2012, the
expected tax cuts after the elections in 2013
are expected to positively impact LV sales.
• Slowing economy and the Euro crisis are likely to
flatten the growth rate in East Europe, by
negatively affecting the markets in Poland and
Turkey.
• Russia is expected to reach the 3 million sales.
• The government’s decision to increase the
Special Consumption Tax (SCT) of vehicles up
to 1.6 cc to 40 per cent in Turkey affected the
market in 2012.
Key Regional Market—Europe (G5 vs E5) Growth in the UK, Italy and certain East European countries to balance the decline in Europe
Automotive Industry Outlook:
LV Sales, G5, E5, 2012–13
YoY Growth
(‘11–12)
YoY Growth
(‘12–13)
Units (million) Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2012. Sources: LMC forecasting, Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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Key Regional Market—Emerging Economies (BRIC vs N5) Mexico to reach the 1 million sales in 2013
4.0 3.1 3.3
20.8
1.5 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.8
-
10
20
30
Brazil Russia India China SouthKorea
Thailand Indonesia Mexico Argentina
2011 2012 2013
2.5% (12.0%)
6.0% 6.0%
8.0%
6.0% 5.0% 0.5% Un
its
(M
illi
on
)
• China: The continuing economic growth is expected to increase market growth by 8 per cent to reach the
20 million sales in 2013. SUV, pickup and premium vehicles are likely to continue to be the popular
segments. Low vehicle penetration, increasing income levels and urbanisation could increase the market
for vehicles.
• The economic growth of about 3.5 per cent due to the infrastructure developments for the FIFA World
Cup in 2014, the reduction in interest rates and the local production of Brazil-specific models will
probably maintain the YoY growth in Brazil for 2013.
• Replacement market and high customer confidence are expected to increase the growth of the Russian
light vehicle market to reach the 3 million sales in 2013. Budget cars and premium models are predicted to
continue to drive the market.
• Rising inflation is a key reason expected to slow down the growth rate for vehicles in the Indian market.
Automotive Industry Outlook: Light Vehicle Sales, BRIC, N5, 2011, 2012, 2013
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2012. Sources: LMC forecasting, Frost & Sullivan analysis.
7.5%
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Key Regional Market (The US and Japan) The US is expected to exceed 15 million sales in 2013
11.6
12.7
14.5 15.0
4.9 4.1
5.1 4.7
0
5
10
15
20
2010 2011 2012 2013
US
Japan
Un
it S
ale
s (
Mil
lio
n)
• The US is expected to witness moderate growth of
up to 3.5 per cent in 2013.
• Although the existing replacement demand is
expected to increase sales, ongoing economic
uncertainty is expected to restrain market growth in
the initial few months of 2013.
• With the gradual economic recovery, the market is
expected to reach the 15 million sales in 2013.
• The market for pickups and SUVs is expected to
drive growth, and account for about 43 per cent of
light vehicle sales.
• The Japanese market, which recovered with the
support of government subsidies, is expected to
decline as funds for the subsidies get exhausted.
• Although Japanese OEMs are expected to face a
slowdown in China due to territorial disputes, they
are expected to fare well in North America and
other markets.
Automotive Industry Outlook: Light Vehicle
Sales, US, Japan, 2010–2013
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2012. Sources: LMC forecasting, Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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ASEAN Countries Vehicle Production Thailand witnessed 71 per cent growth in 2012. The success of the Thai Eco Car programme overshadowed
the accelerated growth across all markets
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
2011 2012 (F)
1.46
2.50
0.84
1.10
0.53
0.57
0.17
0.14
Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Other ASEAN
49%
28%
18%
6%
58% 25%
14%
3%
Note: All figures are rounded. Others – Rest of the countries in the region/world
Sources: AAF, MTA, Gaikindo, MAA, VAMA, TAIA; Frost & Sullivan analysis.
ASEAN PRODUCTION
SHARE
• Thailand accounts for 58 per cent of the production in the region, compared to 49 per cent in
2011.
• Indonesia accounts for 25 per cent of the region’s production, which is set to increase in the
next few years due to capacity addition.
3 million
4.23 million
41%
71%
(12%)
7%
31%
2011
2012
Un
it S
ale
s (
Mil
lio
n)
Automotive Industry Outlook: Total Production
Volume, ASEAN, 2011, 2012
Automotive Industry Outlook: Production
Breakdown, ASEAN, 2012
Year
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Electric Vehicle Sales The sale of electric vehicles has increased by over 100% and over 109,748 units have been sold
globally until December 2012 as compared to 43,200 sold in 2011
54,520
4,911 7,665
2,739 1,423 463 1,266 3,250 1,579 1,105 569 3,671
25,474
1,030 83
Electric Vehicle Market: Electric Vehicle Sales, Global, 2012
USA 50%
Europe 26%
China 1%
Japan 23%
Electric Vehicle Market: Breakdown by Region, Global, 2012
BEV 50% eREV
29%
NEV 1%
PHEV 16%
Unclassified 4%
Electric Vehicle Market: Breakdown by EV Type
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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Key Launches in 2013
The BMW Group
• The launch of the BMW i series signifies BMW’s
entry into the electric vehicle market.
• The i3 is a city car targeted at the compact car
segment, while the i8 is a sports car offering.
• Combined sales of 5,500 are expected from both
models.
The Daimler Group
• Mercedes-Benz CLA is the first of the new Mercedes
compact range that is headed to the US
• The new S-Class and E-Class are also expected to help
the group recover market share.
The Volkswagen Group
• The redesigned Audi A3 is expected to expand
sales in the European and North American
markets.
• The Golf, one of VW’s best sellers in 2013 is
expected to continue to expand its market share.
BMW i 3 BMW i 8
Mercedes Benz CLA
Volkswagen Golf
Audi A3
Sources: Company Media Web sites. Images used for illustration purposes only, Frost & Sullivan analysis.
21 M930-18
Key Launches in 2013 (continued)
Ford Group
• Ford is positioning itself as a strong competitor in the
growing mid-sized sedan segment with the launch of the
redesigned Fusion.
• The Fusion hybrid, which offers superior fuel efficiency, is
expected to drive sales in the US.
General Motors Group
• Keeping in line with the SUV/Pickup trend, General
Motors has re-launched the Chevrolet Silverado
• The updated Chevrolet Malibu has been
reintroduced to compete in the growing mid-sized
segment.
Fiat-Chrysler Group
• Fiat 500X is a highly anticipated launch for Fiat that is
expected to help the company gain leverage in the
SUV/cross-over segment.
• The new sports car, Alpha Romeo 4C, is also
expected to be launched in 2013.
Ford Fusion
Chevrolet Malibu
Fiat 500X
Chevrolet Silverado
Sources: Company Media Web sites. Images used for illustration purposes only, Frost & Sullivan analysis.
