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Earth
s Atmosphere and Climate Change
Big QuestionGlobal Warming Is Happening: What Part Do We Play?
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Global Warming and the Polar Bears of
Hudson Bay
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Is the Global Temperature Rising? Yes, and it isrising globallyHas thetemperature
risen steadily?
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The Last 1,000,000 Years
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The Last 1,000,000 Years
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Variation in the Sun
s Energy May Be A
Reason for Climate Changes The sun
s energy seems to have varied over the agesMidievil Warm period has high solar activity
The Little Ice Age lasted from about 1450 to 1850 andhad relatively low solar activity
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The Seasons
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The Last 1,000,000 Years
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Changes to Solar Strength
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Sunspot_Numbers.png
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Volcanoes Can Alter Climate Volcanic eruptions cool the climate in two ways:- Atmospheric dust reflects sunlight back into space- Smaller dust particles provide water condensingsurfaces, forming clouds
Mt. Pinatubo, Philippines
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Dust from Our Own Activities Also Cools the
Climate
Aerosol pollution particles reduce amount of sunlightreaching EarthEmissions have reduced global warming
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Variations in Ocean Currents May Affect the
Climate
Ocean currents and prevailing winds warm or cool our
planetThe Gulf Stream : a major ocean circulation affectingclimate
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Gulf Stream
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Kuroshio Current www.tec.army.mil
http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.tec.army.mil/publications/elnino/Fig14.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.tec.army.mil/publications/elnino/&usg=__JEOCTdBXBhqSQnCWeaunKfzQJLA=&h=600&w=600&sz=249&hl=en&start=4&um=1&tbnid=KgjK1AaAD73o4M:&tbnh=135&tbnw=135&prev=/images?q=kuroshio+current&um=1&hl=en&rls=com.microsoft:en-us&sa=X -
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Oceans can really alter climate?Isthmus of Panama
Emplaced 3.5 3 M years agStarted modern circulation
Gulf stream carries salty Atlantic northCools, sinks
Oceanic conveyor belt
High latitudes cool
JAK 2010 17
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Earth
s energy balance between the amount of
energy coming in from the sun and the amount ofenergy radiated out by the Earth
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Incoming Energy Albedo effect
Energy absorbed by Ocean ~ 90% !!! 19JAK 2010
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The answer lies in the Earth
s energy balance
between the amount of energy coming in from thesun and the amount of energy radiated out by theEarth
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The Greenhouse Effect, and How It Warms
Earth
s Surface
Earth
s surface temperature determined by four main
factors:1. Amount of sunlight Earth receives2. Amount of sunlight Earth reflects3. Retention of heat by atmosphere4. Evaporation and condensation of water vapor
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Energy Budget
A h i L l f CO d CH
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Atmospheric Levels of CO 2 and CH 4,Global Temperatures, and Sea
Levels
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Gases produce a greenhouse effect on other planets too
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Review QuestionsIs the Greenhouse Effect a new theory?Is the Greenhouse Effect debated?
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Greenhouse Gases Are Increasing
We are part of the reasonCarbon dioxide has been increasing in the atmospherefor some time
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First suggested early in the 19th century1957: an observatory established on Mauna Loa Volcano,HawaiiScientists now can estimate the carbon dioxide concentrationin ancient atmosphere:- Measure concentration in air bubbles
trapped in polar ice sheetsPeople add to atmospheric carbon dioxide by :
- Burning fossil fuels and wood- Major changes in land use, i.e. cuttingdown forests and removing prairies
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MethaneConcentration more than doubled in the past 200 yearsPeople can add to atmospheric methane by :- Increasing habitats where methane-producingbacteria live
- Increasing number of domesticated ruminants(cows, etc.)
- Processing and burning fossil fuels- Destroying wetlands (releases stored methane)- Increasing the size of landfills and storedorganic matter
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PermafrostFrozen Soil
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Fluorocarbons (CFCs and HFCS)CFCs Once thought harmlessIncreasing in atmosphere about 5% per yearUse as propellants banned in the U.S. in 1978
Montreal Protocol of 1987 was an internationalagreement to reduce and eventually eliminateproduction of CFCsHFCs still used
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Nitrous Oxideincreasing in the atmosphere and likely contributes asmuch as 5% of the anthropogenic greenhouse effect
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OzoneIs a contributing greenhouse gas, but has been difficultto determine percentage of greenhouse effect due toozone
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Warming Potential of the
Main Greenhouse Gases over 100yrs
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Would It Really Be So Serious
If Earth Warmed Up a Bit? Changes in the atmosphere affect living things andhabitatsSteps to forecasting effects:1. Forecast changes in climate and physical
conditions of the oceans and land surfaces
2. Forecast species and ecosystems response
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Computermodels are themajor scientifictool in step oneModel results:global warming will increaseEarth
s surface
temperature by1.5 to 4.5
Cfrom 1990 to2100
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Results of IPCCIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)90 99% likely that lower atmosphere is warming1906 2005: Ave. temp increased about 0.74 C 1970 2005: Annual greenhouse emissions up 70%Past 50 years: Arctic temp rising almost twice as fast asthe rest of the earthMelting of glaciers and floating sea ice
Prolonged droughts: increasingLast 100 years: sea levels rose 10 20 cm
C i f M d
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Comparison of MeasuredTemperature from 1860 2007 andProjected Changes
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Forecasts suggest that temperatures are rising
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Temperature Data Two Big
ImpactsSoils will dry outGreatest change where the ice is
WHAT ARE THE MAJOR ENVIRONMENTALPROBLEMS WITH THESE IMPACTS FROM THE
PERSPECTIVE OF OUR COURSE?
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The Effects of a Rising Sea LevelRisen naturally since last ice ageIncreases damage from major storms
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-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
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Global Warming Affects on World Climate
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AgricultureMay seriously affect world s food supplyThe best agricultural areas may no longer be in North America
Winter snowpacks will store less water for springplanting
Lowering of Water Tables and ReservoirsCould cause serious water supply shortages Water use in some regions is already unsustainable
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Biological and Ecological ChangesBiosphere changes due to damaged ecosystemsSpring arrives up to two weeks earlierEarly spring stresses some speciesSome species are changing their geographic ranges- i.e. Sachem skipper butterflies expanding range
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Species Migration
SpreadsDiseases
Example: Changingrange of diseasecarrying mosquitoes
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West Nile virus is an example of global
warming spreading disease:- Mild winters preserve more mosquitoesin still water locations
- Dry springs increase surface-water sitemosquito and bird concentrations
- Mosquitoes with virus bite uninfectedbirds
- Infected birds are bitten by uninfectedmosquitoes, passing the virus to them
- Hot, wet summers cause mosquito population
to mature and grow rapidly
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Endangered Species What will happen to species that can not migrate noradapt?Case Study: Kirtland
s warbler- an endangered-species success story
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Kirtland
s warblers require a very specific habitatnest only in young jack-pine woodlands
To save these birds, 38,000 acres were set aside inMichigan
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computer simulation shows that jack pine will not beable to grow there in global warming climates
Projected Effects of Global Warming and the
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Projected Effects of Global Warming and theResulting Changes in Global Climate
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Slowing the Temperature RiseReduce production and release of greenhouse gasesFind ways to sequester (store) greenhouse gases Actively cool the climate
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Mitigating Global Warming
Toronto 1988: scientists recommended a 20%reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2005Earth Summit 1992: Blueprint for reducing globalemissionsKyoto 1997: Legally binding emission limits We have run out of excuses
Why is the Kyoto Accord so important?
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CO2 Emissions after the Kyoto
Protocol Making energy moreexpensive is a politicalliability everywhere,
says Roger Pielke. When emissionreductions run up againsteconomic growth,economic growth willinevitably win out. There
is no magical solution, soyou better set yourselftangible goals that aren'tdoomed to clash with theiron laws of politics.
35,000
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Fig. 23-7, p. 622
30,000
25,000
20,000
Per capita gross domestic
product (GDP)15,000
1 9 9 6 D o
l l a r s p e r p e r s o n
10,000
5,000Per capita genuine progress indicator (GPI)
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
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Ways to Lower your Emissions Without lowering emissions
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The Fe HypothesisGive me half a tanker of Iron and I
ll give you an Ice Age
- John Martin
To test 1. 7,800 moles of Fe (as FeSO 4) + 15,600 l seawater + conc.HCl to bring it to pH 2 (iron is very insoluble in seawater)2. A 64 km patch over a 24-hour period was made
3. Fe was consumed by the phytoplankton throughout theexperiment4. Patch was followed for 9 days. On the 6th day a low salinityfront moved in from the east, subducting the patch to 20 to 40 m
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Fe concentration in the patch decreased during experiment
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Iron fertilization experiment results
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Iron fertilization experiments to date
Ironex IIronex IISoireeEisenex I
SeedsSeriesSofexEisenex II
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Can we mitigate global warming
with Fe Fertilization
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Problems with the experiments We could only monitor for less than 27 days. What are the long-term impacts
Experiments were relatively small scale
How much Fe will impact atmospheric CarbonDid the carbon get sequestered or is it eaten andrecycled at the surface? Academics are performing the experiments butcompanies want to capitalize
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Experiment SuccessesIronex within two weeks of 1000kg of Fe beingdeposited the equivalent of one hundred redwoodshad been made
Wegener Institute's 2004 Eifexexperiment 300,000 parts carbon fixedto 1 part Fe
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Economic and Social ConcernsHow long a period must carbon be removed forsequestration to have occurred?
Trees decadesBelow thermocline centuriesOcean floor billions of years
Is either time frame long enough to count as carbon
mitigation under the Kyoto protocol?
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Exam80 MCQ questions2 hours
Will cover the whole course pretty evenly distributed
A few extra questions on waste and climate as these were not on a mid-term
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IMPORTANT NOTE All exam questions were required to have 5 answerchoices even true false. . .
So you will see things like A) trueB) false
C) MaybeD) MaybeE) Must have options a-e
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What is on the exam?Three types of questions:Facts either you know them or you can usuallyeliminate a couple and make an educated guess
There are very few know the number questions they comefrom the land unit, the ecosystems lecture, waste, populationlecture
Concepts do you understand key materials presented
in lectureFigures two kindsReading and understanding the figuresInterpreting the figures
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What is on the exam?Three types of questions:Facts either you know them or you can usuallyeliminate a couple and make an educated guess
There are very few know the number questions they comefrom the land unit, the ecosystems lecture, waste, populationlecture, chemicals
Concepts do you understand key materials presented
in lectureFigures two kindsReading and understanding the figuresInterpreting the figures
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How to study?
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What else does this plot relateto?
Water pollution Dead Zones, Hong Kong MitigationEcosystems population nichesLand Use Riparian Buffer Zones, Farming practices