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Bank focused on maintaining low inflation …

Quarterly Monetary Policy Report 821 February 2017

6.4

3.7

1.7

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0M

ar-1

4A

pr-

14

May

-14

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4Se

p-1

4O

ct-1

4N

ov-

14

Dec

-14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-1

5M

ay-1

5Ju

n-1

5Ju

l-1

5A

ug-

15

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5D

ec-1

5Ja

n-1

6Fe

b-1

6M

ar-1

6A

pr-

16

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6Se

p-1

6O

ct-1

6N

ov-

16

Dec

-16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-1

7M

ay-1

7Ju

n-1

7Ju

l-1

7A

ug-

17

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7D

ec-1

7Ja

n-1

8Fe

b-1

8M

ar-1

8

Mo

nth

ly In

flat

ion

Mo

M (

%)

An

nu

al In

flat

ion

Yo

Y (%

)

Montly Inflation (RHS) Inflation (Actual & Forecast) Target Range Forecast

GO TO REPORT (Click below) October to December 2016 Quarter

Inflation

Annual inflation was 1.7 per cent at end-December 2016, a

deceleration relative to the 1.9 per cent recorded as at end-

September 2016. This outturn largely reflected lower domestic

agricultural prices, coupled with decelerations in the cost of other

services … READ MORE >.

Foreign Exchange Market

The weighted average selling rate of the Jamaica Dollar

vis-á-vis the US dollar closed the December 2016 quarter at

J$128.44 = US$1.00, reflecting an annual rate of depreciation

of 6.7 per cent, relative to 7.7 per cent at the end of the previous quarter.... READ MORE >.

International Economy

For the December 2016 quarter, global economic growth is

estimated to have accelerated relative to the Bank’s previous

forecast. Growth, however, remained unchanged when compared

to the outturn for the September 2016 quarter. The services and

manufacturing sectors have shown improvements in several

economies… READ MORE >.

Fiscal Developments

Central Government operations recorded a fiscal deficit of

$5.5 billion for the review quarter, $7.4 billion better than

budgeted. The better than budgeted performance reflected

higher Revenue & Grants and lower

Expenditure… READ MORE >.

Jamaican Economy

Real output continued to rebound in the September 2016

quarter in the context of a stable environment and the

continued implementation of structural reforms. With the

exception of Producers of Government Services, all the sectors of

the economy are estimated to have grown. READ MORE >

Implications for Monetary Policy

The Bank is forecasting headline inflation to increase

gradually over the March 2017 quarter to end fiscal year

(FY) 2016/17 below the target range of 4.5 per cent to 6.5 per

cent. Over the next four quarters, inflation is projected to

remain within the range of 4.0 per cent to 6.0 per cent. READ MORE >.

MORE INFORMATION

Special Features● Macroeconomic Model Component Contribution to Inflation

● Inflation Expectations Survey

● Recent Developments International Oil Market

● Credit Conditions Survey

● Jamaica’s Macroeconomic Programme under the new Stand-By Arrangement

Economic Data and Publications● NEW! National Summary Data Page (NSDP)

● Advance Release Calendar

● Statistical Digest

● Jamaica in Figures

For queries, email qmprbulletin@boj.org.jm. Copyright © Bank of Jamaica 2017. All rights reserved.

For queries, email qmprbulletin@boj.org.jm. Copyright © Bank of Jamaica 2017. All rights reserved.