does the wireless internet need to be interoperable

imho Consulting 6-5 Saddle River Road PMB 125 Fair Lawn, NJ 07410

Does the Wireless Internet Need to be Interoperable?

Carl [email protected]

2393951770

mailto:[email protected]

Outline:

Old Rules of Universal Service connected at the Network Layer Compatibility of LTE devices across carriers? What is preventing compatibity of LTE devices being used across carriers?

Wasn't LTE going to make us all GSM like? LTE vs HSPA+ Freedom to buy phones and chose the carrier Doesn't the Term Jail Break do a disservice to the Consumer? Outlook for voice services on LTE?

The Internet is the model for Interoperability Does that mean Regulation? Can Carriers can be Closed Affinity Networks (Like Skype, Facebook etc,)?

Can the Internet Still Win in the End? Is Access the Bottleneck or has it moved elsewhere? How can End to End IP be thwarted?

Conclusion You can buy Facebook safely in 100 days You can short it in 89.


Old Rules of Universal Service connected at the Network Layer


Then Now

History of the Universal Service

• ATT President Theodore Vail– concept from his Post Office background

“One Policy, One System, Universal Service”– Fierce Defense of the Patents

• Forced out Competition in Major Cities• Flat Rate Strategy claimed as a Public Good

• Codified– 1910 Interstate Commerce Commission– 1934 Telecommunications Act (start FCC)– 1996 Telecom Act (Separate / Separated)


POTS Last Mile Economics

Rural Suburban Central Office Inter Office Interconnect CloudNumerator 1 1 1 1 1 1

Denominator 1 2500 100 K 500 K 1 M 10 M

MONOPOLISTIC


Universal Service 2.0InterNetwork Operability

• 1969 ARPANET• 1982 TCP/IP is Standardized.• 1995 Competitive Internet Backbone Allowed• 1996 The Commercial Internet Starts• 2000 SIP becomes the 3GPP Future• 2003 Skype• 2011 PSTN Twilight becomes an Issue.


End to End - Economics

Rural SuburbanNumerator 1 1

Denominator 1 2500

INTERNET

Bypasses the Switching NetworkPrice is incremental to access


Wireless is Access Economics

Rural Suburban CellsNumerator 1 1 1

Denominator 1 2500 50

WIRELESS

2G / 3G Base Stations Return to POTSTypically supported by 2 T1s


GSMA Universal Service 3.0

• In 1982 the European Conference of Postal and Telecommunications Administrations (CEPT) created the Groupe Spécial Mobile AKA GSM

• In 1986 the European Commission proposed to reserve the 900 MHz spectrum band for GSM.

• In 1989, the Groupe Spécial Mobile committee was transferred from CEPT to the European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI). Now 3GPPs

– 80% of the global mobile market, – encompassing more than 5 billion people– across more than 212 countries and

territories,

• Macau decided to fade out GSM network in July 2012


2G / 3G Wireless History


LTE vs. HSPA


LTE is the Faster, but it Requires more CapitalHSPA is Easier, And it is easier for GSM Operators

Business Decisions


HSPA biggest Advantage is that Shared Spectrum still drives it.LTE is being driven by proprietary deployments.

Rebuilding Capacity for Data

• Requires 4 to 1 more density minimum• Carriers are building to order• Why does LTE have Compatiability Issues– Spectrum Licensing Changes the Model

• No GSM shared Bandwidth designation

– Interoperability is a Business Issue• Why build the phone for migration?• Technically can add to Battery life issues

– We are heading to a keep cost model– Absent a direct cost compensation model


Ethernet Economics


Denominator 1 2500

ETHERNET

WIRELESS

Typically this is a Third Party ServiceSpeeds of 10/100 MB Often on Fiber


Changing Economics


Denominator 1 2500

ETHERNET

WIRELESS

INTERNET

COMPETITIVE


Content Ecomomics


Denominator 1 2500

ETHERNET

WIRELESS

INTERNET

COMPETITIVE

CDNs Data Centers,

GSM IPX


Outlook for voice services on LTE?

• Voice over LTE would be the final transition for Everything over IP.

• Existing voice Structure has embedded services that have not made the transition to VoIP– FAX, – Emergency Services, – Defacto Voice Quality

• The Interconnection Points need internal economics.• Bottom Line it’s a 2013-15 Initiative for most and even

then is subject to business issues.


And Do We Care


Voice/SMS Mail Web Entertainment0

5

10

15

20

25

WirelessInternetSmartPhone

18%57%25%

This is not a Phone Call• Bits are our Economic Good• Transport is our Economic Service• Latency is our Service Delivery Time• All of this occurs via “fiber routes”• Where it Arrives at ports (datacenters)

and final destinations (devices)


What’s the DifferenceShipping Routes

Fiber Routes


We are a CommodityUnits of Measure

Soybeans Kg Goods Bits Bytes(Kb)

Shipping Time/Kg Service Bandwidth (IO)

Bytes/Time (Gbps)

Delivery Time Delivery Time

Latency Time/Delay (ms)


Network I/O


Data based - Economics

• 1975=>Decentralized networking• 1985=>Decentralized Computing,the“PC”• 1995=>Internet• 2005=>Intercomputing, the“Cloud”• 2015=>Interdata

Source Jason HoffmanCEO of Joyent


Why HTML5 is Important!

• If over half of what we want to do is on the Web, why focus on the device?

• HTML5’s suite eliminates a layer of middleware we get more direct Client (browser)/ Server (cloud) experiences. This is Data Virtualization – BigData; Hadoop, NoSQL– Node.js

• Device optimization is still there but can be called out from HTML5.


PAN Ecomomics

• The Cloud Bundles these elements

• Ultimately It’s the Internet Bundled into a Service

• So What are the concerns?– Cloud and Device

Bundles– Prioritization

Schemes

ETHERNET

WIRELESS

INTERNET

COMPETITIVE

CDNs Data Centers,

GSM IPX


Access is the Issue

• Public Access Neutral Solutions– Not be based on Last Mile (Economic Development)– See Access separately– based on Competitive / Commodity models– Public Good services should be seen like any other

application.– Traffic Prioritization is a competitive opportunity, not

a bottleneck. • Device Folks just as likely to bundle as Carriers


Net Neutrality RealitiesPOTS• Right of Ways

Controlled Access• Quality of Service had a

base line• Requirements for Fair

and Reasonable• Dumb Pipes Must Carry

PANS• Content is Aggregated

by Sites• Best Effort is impacted

by solutions• Market Dominance is

not considered• What is the Access

Point Rules?


Universal Service 4.0 Wi-Fi

• Home (Punch Block) Wiring is old– The Home is still twisted pair– The Home needs a Network.

• Wi-Fi (not Femto) by passes home problem.– Wi-Fi is Universal its on every smart phone• OnLoad / OffLoad• Wi-Fi is now being used to support ZigBee etc.

– 5GHz & Super WiFi are Carrier alternative.


“One Policy, One System, Universal Service”

• One Policy– Trust No One– Securing your Privacy is a full time job

• One System– It’s an Internet of Things– Did I mention HTML5?

• Universal Service– Deploy Wi-Fi (expect a strategy)– Everything over IP


So How Did We Do

Old Rules of Universal Service connected at the Network Layer Compatibility of LTE devices across carriers? What is preventing compatibity of LTE devices being used across carriers?

Wasn't LTE going to make us all GSM like? LTE vs HSPA+ Freedom to buy phones and chose the carrier Doesn't the Term Jail Break do a disservice to the Consumer? Outlook for voice services on LTE?

The Internet is the model for Interoperability Does that mean Regulation? Can Carriers can be Closed Affinity Networks (Like Skype, Facebook etc,)?

Can the Internet Still Win in the End? Is Access the Bottleneck or has it moved elsewhere? How can End to End IP be thwarted?

Conclusion You can buy Facebook safely in 100 days You can short it in 89.


does the wireless internet need to be interoperable

Business

term jail

closed affinity

network layer

buy facebook

universal

buy phones

voice services

carrier doesnt