does my vote matter-vals
TRANSCRIPT
Does My Vote Matter?
Hamilton Says:"A fondness for power is implanted, in most men, and it is natural to abuse it, when acquired."*
* In “The Farmer Refuted,” 1775
Constitution Leadership Initiative
www.ConstitutionLeadership.orgNote: Donations to CLI are tax-deductible
Sources
Enlightened Democracy,
By Tara Ross
The Evolution and Destruction of the Original Electoral
College, by Gary & Carolyn
Alder
Inventing the American
Presidency, Thomas Cronin,
ed.
Choosing a President: The
Electoral College and Beyond, by
Paul D. Schumaker &
Burdett A. Loomis
The Electoral College Primer, by Lawrence D. Longley & Neal
R. Peirce
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Surprise!!The American people were never intended to be involved in
electing the President!
Our Presidents – 44 of Them!
How Do You Select A President For The First Time?Under the Articles of Confederation there was no
true Chief ExecutiveThe President of Congress was an administrative
title with little authority other than to manage the business of Congress
A true Chief Executive was needed; short of a King, and yet more powerful than the President of Congress
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At The Constitutional Convention
The Virginia Plan - National Executive to be chosen by the National Legislature, for the term of seven years.
The South Carolina Plan: The Senate and House of Delegates shall annually choose the President of the United States from among themselves or the People at large.
The New Jersey Plan: the United States in Congress assembled be authorized to elect a federal Executive.
The “British” Plan: a Governor to serve during good behavior and be elected by Electors chosen by the people in the Election Districts.
Direct ElectionDirect election of the President by the people was
discussed but rejected, initially. The people lack awareness and knowledge of potential
candidates. Small states would be disfavored. (Remember this!) Most important: Direct election would consolidate too
much power and influence in one person. (Remember this also!)
Election by the Congress was also not favored If Congress was allowed to elect (and re-elect) the
President, he would be beholden to the Congress and too apt to go along with their initiatives.
If not the people, if not Congress, who’s left to elect the President?
What About the States?Small states were reluctant to give up the political
power they enjoyed under the Articles of Confederation.
The “Grand Compromise” retained equal power in the Senate and added proportional power in the House
Something like the “Grand Compromise” was needed as well for electing the President.
On Sept 4, 1787 the Committee on Detail proposed the present Electoral College method. It was adopted on Sept 7.
The CompromiseA chief executive to be elected for a term of four years and
be chosen by electors selected for that purpose. “Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the
Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress.
“The Congress may determine the Time of choosing the Electors, and the Day on which they shall give their Votes; which Day shall be the same throughout the United States.”
Article II - Continued
“The Electors shall meet in their respective States, and vote by Ballot for two Persons*, of whom one at least shall not be an Inhabitant of the same State with themselves. And they shall make a List of all the Persons voted for, and of the Number of Votes for each; which List they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the Seat of the Government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate.”
* Modified by the 12th Amendment
Article II - Continued
“The President of the Senate shall, in the Presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the Certificates, and the Votes shall then be counted. The Person having the greatest Number of Votes shall be the President, if such Number be a Majority of the whole Number of Electors appointed; and if there be more than one who have such Majority, and have an equal Number of Votes, then the House of Representatives shall immediately chuse by Ballot one of them for President; and if no Person have a Majority, then from the five* highest on the List the said House shall in like Manner chuse the President. “
* Modified by the 12th Amendment
The “Contingent” Election“But in chusing the President, the Votes shall be taken by States, the Representation from each State having one Vote; … a Majority of all the States shall be necessary to a Choice. In every Case, after the Choice of the President, the Person having the greatest Number of Votes of the Electors shall be the Vice President. But if there should remain two or more who have equal Votes, the Senate shall chuse from them by Ballot the Vice President.”Note: The contingent election was seen as the likely outcome of most elections
The End Result “The President was to be, like the Senate, the
creature of the states and not of Congress”* (and not of the people)
The states totally controlled (and still control) how electors are selected
The electors were originally only to nominate two people for President. The Congress would complete the election by counting the nominations and, if necessary settling ties or lack of a majority.
* Donald Lutz, et al, “The Electoral College in Historical and Philosophical Perspective: in “Choosing a President”, Paul D. Schumaker, ed.
Hamilton Liked it
“I … hesitate not to affirm, that if the manner of it be not perfect, it is at least excellent.”
The Electoral College Worked Well - Twice Two
terms, then I’m
outta here!
Side Note: Essays on Presidential ElectionsAs a side note: the study of Presidential elections
is fascinating if you find an author willing to dig into the political intrigue that accompanied most of them.
Constituting America’s 90-Day Study this year was devoted to a review of every one of the elections we have enjoyed (or suffered, depending on your point of view). I suggest you explore the essays here: http://constitutingamerica.org/docs/90DayStudyPresidentialElections.pdf
Another Side Note: Books On Presidential Elections
Goodreads.com lists 61 books written about presidential elections.
They discuss the results of 28 different elections.The election of 1800 enjoys the most interest (5 books).
The Election of 1789
Presidential candidateFederalist/
Anti-Federalist*
Home state Electoral vote
George Washington Federalist Virginia 69John Adams Federalist Massachusetts 34John Jay Federalist New York 9Robert H. Harrison Federalist Maryland 6John Rutledge Federalist South Carolina 6John Hancock Federalist Massachusetts 4George Clinton Anti-Federalist New York 3Samuel Huntington Federalist Connecticut 2John Milton Federalist Georgia 2James Armstrong Federalist Georgia 1Benjamin Lincoln Federalist Massachusetts 1Edward Telfair Anti-Federalist Georgia 1
Total 138Needed to win 35
* Supported or rejected the Constitution69 total electors
Presidential candidate Party Home state Electoral
voteGeorge Washington None Virginia 132
John Adams Federalist Massachusetts 77
George ClintonDemocratic-Republican New York 50
Thomas JeffersonDemocratic-Republican Virginia 4
Aaron BurrDemocratic-Republican New York 1
Total 264Needed to win 67
132 total electors
The Election of 1792
Presidential candidate Party Home state Electoral vote
John Adams Federalist Massachusetts 71Thomas Jefferson Democratic-Republican Virginia 68Thomas Pinckney Federalist South Carolina 59Aaron Burr Democratic-Republican New York 30Samuel Adams Democratic-Republican Massachusetts 15Oliver Ellsworth Federalist Connecticut 11George Clinton Democratic-Republican New York 7John Jay Federalist New York 5James Iredell Federalist North Carolina 3George Washington Federalist Virginia 2John Henry Democratic-Republican Maryland 2Samuel Johnston Federalist North Carolina 2Charles C. Pinckney Federalist South Carolina 1
Total 276Needed to win 70
138 total electors, 71 Fed, 67 DR
The Election of 1796
Presidential candidate Party Home state Electoral vote
Thomas JeffersonDemocratic-Republican Virginia 73
Aaron BurrDemocratic-Republican New York 73
John Adams(incumbent) Federalist Massachusetts 65
Charles C. Pinckney Federalist South Carolina 64John Jay Federalist New York 1
Total 276Needed to win 70138 total electors, 73 DR, 65 Fed
The Election of 1800
The 1800 Contingent Election In the contingent election, 16 states voted, 9 votes needed to win.
1-35th ballot:8 Jefferson6 Burr2 Null (Maryland, 4-4, and Vermont, 1-1)
36th ballot:10 Jefferson4 Burr2 Null (Delaware and South Carolina)
12th Amendment - 1804The Electors shall meet in their respective states,
and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves; they shall name in their ballots the person voted for as President, and in distinct ballots the person voted for as Vice-President, and they shall make distinct lists of all persons voted for as President, and all persons voted for as Vice-President and of the number of votes for each, which lists they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the seat of the government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate.
Who Are These “Electors?” “No Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office
of Trust or Profit under the United States, shall be appointed an Elector.” This is the only qualification.
Pennsylvania - 2008
Appointing vs Electing Electors In 1789, four of the ten states* voting used direct
appointment of electors by the state legislature.Nine of fifteen states did so in 1792Ten of sixteen states did so in 1800Half the states still did so in 1812By 1824, however, all but two states were allowing popular
election of electors (South Carolina held out until after the Civil War)
* NC & RI were not yet states, NY didn’t choose electors in time
Choosing Electors Today
In 34 states, state party conventions nominate a slate of electors.
In 10 states (plus D.C.) state party committees nominate the party’s electors.
One state (AZ) nominates the electors in primary elections.
The remaining 5 states use a variety of methods. PA alone authorizes the national presidential candidates to nominate electors for his/her party.
Current Electoral Vote AllocationCalifornia 55 Wisconsin 10 Arkansas 6
Texas 38 Missouri 10 West Virginia 5
New York 29 Minnesota 10 New Mexico 5
Florida 29 Maryland 10 Nebraska 5
Pennsylvania 20 South Carolina 9 Rhode Island 4
Illinois 20 Colorado 9 New Hampshire 4
Ohio 18 Alabama 9 Maine 4
Michigan 16 Louisiana 8 Idaho 4
Georgia 16 Kentucky 8 Hawaii 4
North Carolina 15 Oregon 7 Wyoming 3
New Jersey 14 Oklahoma 7 Vermont 3
Virginia 13 Connecticut 7 South Dakota 3
Washington 12 Utah 6 North Dakota 3
Tennessee 11 Nevada 6 Montana 3
Massachusetts 11 Mississippi 6 Delaware 3
Indiana 11 Kansas 6 Alaska 3
Arizona 11 Iowa 6 District of Columbia 3 Thanks to the 23rd Amendment
538 Total Electoral Votes,
270 to win!
What About “Faithless” Electors? Ironically, electors who vote their consciences (as the
Framers intended) are today called “faithless.”There have been 158 instances of “faithless” electors; none
have changed the outcome of an election.Virginia is one of 31 states — including the District of
Columbia — with a law seeking to bind the votes of presidential electors.
However, no “faithless” elector has ever been prosecuted for their vote
The Supreme Court has ruled electors can be expected to honor their pledges, but has not ruled on what happens if they don’t.
From 1800 to 1996
Most elections worked well.With a few exceptions that we’ll explain in a moment.
“Problem Elections” In 1800, the House of Representatives settled an electoral vote tie
by choosing Thomas Jefferson over Aaron Burr In 1824, the House of Representatives chose John Quincy Adams
over Andrew Jackson even though Jackson had more electoral votes (but not a majority)
In 1876, Rutherford B. Hayes defeated Samuel Tilden by one electoral vote even though Tilden had 3% more popular votes.
In 1888, Benjamin Harrison won the electoral college although Grover Cleveland had more popular votes
In 1912, Woodrow Wilson won the electoral college with only a plurality of popular votes
In 1948, Harry Truman won the electoral college with only a plurality of popular votes
And Then Came 2000
Popular Vote Totals
Gore: 50,999,897Bush: 50,456,002Nader: 2,882,955Others: 9,302,797
Bush: 271 ElecVotesGore: 266 ElecVotes
271 + 266 = 537, where’s the last vote?
Results In Florida
Candidate Party Votes Percentage
George Bush Republican 2,912,790 48.85%
Al Gore Democrat 2,912,253 48.84%
Ralph Nadar Green 97,488 1.63%
Pat Buchanan Reform 17,484 0.29%
Harry Browne Libertarian 16,415 0.28%
Howard Phillips Constitution 1,371 0.02%
John Hagelin Natural Law 2,281 0.04%
Others None 3,028 0.05%
= 357
What About The “Spoilers?” In two states won by Bush, Ralph Nader’s vote
total was larger than Bush’s winning margin: FL-25 (537 winning margin, 97,488 Nader votes), NH-4 (7,211 winning margin, 22,198 Nader votes)
If New Hampshire’s Nader votes had gone to Gore instead (or even half of them), Gore would have won the state, and the election!
(Outcome: Gore = 270, Bush = 267)
What About “Wasted Votes?”All votes in excess of 50.01% of the votes cast have no effect
on the outcome.Using this criteria, Republicans “wasted” 2,266,880 votes
Democrats “wasted” 2,176,382 votes
Bottom line: unless you can predict a majority win instead of a plurality win, no vote is “wasted”.
But, Bush won four states (54 EC votes) with pluralitiesGore won six states (44 EC Votes) with pluralities
The National Popular Vote Project
What NPV Proposes
Modify the present “winner-take-all” rules in 48 states* to instead pledge all state electoral votes to winner of the national popular vote.
This can be done through simple state law changes.
No need for a Constitutional amendment.After implementing, at some point a Constitutional
amendment would be proposed to remove the Electoral College verbiage
* Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral votes by district
NPV Progress
NPV has been enacted into law in 11 states (+ D.C.)* controlling 165 electoral votes.
It will take effect (in those states) when enacted by states controlling 105 more votes.
The bill has passed a total of 34 state legislative chambers in 23 states.
Recent success: 40–16 vote in the AZ House, 28–18 in the OK Senate, and 37–21 in the OR House.
* all Blue States in 2000
One Problem With The NPV
“No State shall, without the Consent of Congress, lay any Duty of Tonnage, keep Troops, or Ships of War in time of Peace, enter into any Agreement or Compact with another State, or with a foreign Power, or engage in War, unless actually invaded, or in such imminent Danger as will not admit of delay.” Article 1, Section 10, Clause 3.
Another Problem NPV asks states to approve legislation in which they ignore the will of the voters of their own state and instead award electoral votes to the winner of a national contest.
Today, the Electoral College winner must assemble a broad coalition of big states, little states, urban populations and rural populations to be successful.
NPV will permit a concentration of support in large urban populations to prevail.
In Review:Four factors have undermined the Electoral CollegeThe emergence of political parties Electors pledged to party candidates Election rather than appointment of electors “Winner-take-all” allocation of state electoral votes
The Electoral College does not function as designed, but it still functions to produce legitimate Presidents.
Let’s Just Get Rid of the Political Parties!
Ain’t gonna happen!
What Were The Framers’ Concerns Again?
The people lack awareness and knowledge of potential candidates.
Small states would be disfavored. The 11 largest states control 270 EC votes Of the 25 states with the largest VEP, 15 voted Blue,
10 voted Red in 2012 The 25 largest states have 81% of the nation’s Voting
Eligible Population
Conclusion: Direct election favors the large states at the expense of the small states.
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One More Result of Direct Election“[Roosevelt] believed that as President, he had a unique relationship with and responsibility to the people, and therefore wanted to challenge prevailing notions of limited government and individualism; government, he maintained, should serve as an agent of reform for the people.”
Roosevelt’s violations of the President’s
limited Constitutional powers are legendary
Other Presidents Expanded Executive Powers
"A fondness for power is implanted, in most men, and it is natural to abuse it, when acquired.“ Alexander Hamilton
So, Does My Vote Matter?
Yes – every vote matters (potentially). You can never know in advance whose vote will put a candidate over 50.01%.
In Summary If you want the large states to dominate future Presidential elections… support NPV
support NPV
If you want a President who acts as though he represents the combined political power of 320 million Americans…
If you want to move ever closer to a pure democracy, a form of government that the Founders abhorred… support NPV
If not, we should stick with the admittedly dysfunctional system we currently have.
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What Can/Should I Do?
Spend (more) time studying the Framers original plan and rationale.
Work to inform people of the rationale of the original system.
“We the People, the Constitution Matters”
http://www.1180wfyl.com
Reason for Hope Conference Sponsored by The Foundation for American Christian Education, Chesapeake, VA
November 11-12, 2016 Atlantic Shores Baptist Church, VB
