USA DOE – OIL STATISTICS

WEEK 62017

ARNAUD BOUCARD

The opinions expressed in this report are my own and do not necessarily represent the views of my employer, Thomson Reuters

Source: US Department of Energy

AGENDA

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 03

1. CRUDE OIL 04

2. GASOLINE 06

3. DISTILLATES 08

4. KEROZENE 10

5. REFINERY 12

II. ANNEXE 13

2

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYDOE – STATISTICS

Crude stocks gained 9 527 kb to 518 119 kb versus an expected gain of 3 513 kb. This gain was led by PADD 3 with a build of 6 825 kb, and lower implied demand (- 434 kb/d). Confirming build trend during last 6 weeks, stocks are 149 567 kb superior to the 5y average (368 552 kb)and reached a new high for week 6 (over 5 past years). Furthermore, stocks are 15 677 kb above the 4w average (502 442 kb), and 47 443 kb superior to the last year (470 676 kb).

Cushing stocks declined by 702 kb to 64 568 kb. I t's 19 044 kb superior to the 5y Average (45 524 kb), 266 kb under the 4w average (64 834 kb), and 129 kb behind the last year (64 697 kb).

Gasoline Stocks gained 2 847 kb to 259 064 kb versus an expected fall of 752 kb. I t is 19 701 kb/d above the 5y Average (239 363 kb), 25 855 kb/d above the 4w average (233 209 kb), and 3 407 kb/d above the last year (255 657 kb). The rise was run by PADD 3 with a gain of 2 440 kb, and lower Gasoline imports (- 207 kb/d). With current level Gasoline stocks reached a new high for week 6 (over 5 past years).

The upward trend begun 3 weeks ago was interrupted, and Distillates stocks down by 691 kb to 170 056 kb versus an expected drawdown of 752 kb. that is 35 079 kb/d superior to the 5y Average (134 977 kb), 54 119 kb/d over the 4w average (115 937 kb), and 9 080 kb/d above the last year (160 976 kb). The reduction was led by PADD 1 with a fall of 2 386 kb. With current level Distillates stocks reached a new high

The downward trend begun 2 weeks ago was interrupted, and Kerosene stocks gained 2 567 kb to 43 151 kb, which is 3 477 kb/d superior to the 5y Average (39 674 kb), 560 kb/d over the 4w average (42 591 kb), and 1 454 kb/d above the last year (41 697 kb). The gain was led by PADD 3 with a build of 1 746 kb, and lower implied demand (- 661 kb/d). With current level Kerosene stocks reached a new high for week 6 (over 5 past years).

Refinery Run delcline 2.38 pt versus an expected delcline of 0.30 pt.

3

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Change Level

9,527 518,119

-702 64,568

2,847 259,064

-691 170,056

2,567 43,151

-2.38 85.35%

Current Week

Crude Oil - Lower 48

Crude Oil - Cushing

Gasoline

Distillates

Kerozene

Refinery Run

Thomson Reuters

Survey

3,513

-752

Difference

-696

-0.30

6,014

3,599

5

-2.08

WEEK 62017

CRUDE OIL

4

Storage (kb) Cushing (Oklahoma) - Storage (kb)

320,000335,000350,000365,000380,000395,000410,000425,000440,000455,000470,000485,000500,000515,000530,000545,000

Range 2012 - 2016

2015 2016

2017 5Y AVG

Production (kb) Imports (kb)

Days of Supply

4,8005,1005,4005,7006,0006,3006,6006,9007,2007,5007,8008,1008,4008,7009,0009,3009,6009,900

18,00022,00026,00030,00034,00038,00042,00046,00050,00054,00058,00062,00066,00070,00074,000

6,5006,8507,2007,5507,9008,2508,6008,9509,3009,650

10,00010,350

21.022.023.024.025.026.027.028.029.030.031.032.033.034.035.0

CRUDE OILEXECUTIVE SUMMARY

For a 6th consecutive week, crude stocks gained 9 527 kb to 518 119 kb. This gain was led by PADD 3 with a build of 6 825 kb, and lower implied demand (- 434 kb/d).

Stocks levels of PADD 1, PADD 2, PADD 4, PADD 5 moved by 455 kb, -1 289 kb, 697 kb, 2 840 kb respectively.

Confirming build trend during last 6 weeks, stocks are 149 567 kb superior to the 5y average (368 552 kb)and reached a new high for week 6 (over 5 past years). Furthermore, stocks are 15 677 kb above the 4w average (502 442 kb), and 47 443 kb superior to the last year (470 676 kb).

Weekly crude run (refinery input) down by 434 kb/d to 15 459 kb/d. 4w Average reached 15 459 kb/d (- 434 kb/d), and linked to stocks level achieved 32.7 days of supply.

Cushing stocks declined by 702 kb to 64 568 kb. I t's 19 044 kb superior to the 5y Average (45 524 kb), 266 kb under the 4w average (64 834 kb), and 129 kb behind the last year (64 697 kb).

Crude production contracted by 1 kb/d to 8 977 kb/d. That is 1 092 kb/d superior to the 5y Average (7 885 kb), 19 kb/d over the 4w average (8 958 kb/d), and 209 kb/d under the last year (9 186 kb).

Crude imports declined by 880 kb/d to 8 492 kb/d. I t's 770 kb/d over the 5y Average (7 722 kb), 2 kb/d over the 4w average (8 491 kb/d), and 1 367 kb/d over the last year (7 125 kb).

US imports: Canada (3 138 kb/d), Saudi Arabia (1 457 kb/d), Mexico ( 573 kb/d), Venezuela ( 388 kb/d), Kuwait ( 208 kb/d), Colombia ( 705 kb/d), Ecuator ( 226 kb/d), and Angola ( 119 kb/d), and I raq ( 440 kb/d), and Nigeria ( 287 kb/d), and Others ( 951 kb/d).

5

Current Past Week Variation 4 Weeks Avrg Variation Past Year Variation 5 Years Avrg Variation2/10/2017 2/3/2017 vs current vs current 2/5/2016 vs current vs current

IMPLIED DEMAND (kbl /day) Implied Demand 15,459 15,893 -434 15,837 -378 15,511 -52 15,064 395REFINERY INPUT (kbl /day) Total 15,459 15,893 -434 15,837 -378 15,511 -52 15,064 395

PADD 1 PADD 1 - East Coast 994 1,071 -77 1,047 -53 1,030 -36 985 9PADD 2 PADD 2 - Midwest 3,647 3,693 -46 3,698 -51 3,707 -60 3,514 133PADD 3 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 8,034 8,206 -172 8,201 -167 8,010 24 7,716 318PADD 4 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 623 601 22 613 11 439 184 533 90PADD 5 PADD 5 - West Coast 2,161 2,322 -161 2,278 -117 2,325 -164 2,316 -155

PRODUCTION (kbl / day) Total 8,977 8,978 -1 8,958 19 9,186 -209 7,885 1,092IMPORTS (kbl / day) Total 8,492 9,372 -880 8,491 2 7,125 1,367 7,722 770

PADD 1 PADD 1 - East Coast 880 1,049 -169 945 -65 721 159 781 99PADD 2 PADD 2 - Midwest 2,530 2,802 -272 2,677 -147 2,668 -138 2,128 402PADD 3 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 3,376 3,967 -591 3,378 -2 2,499 877 3,482 -106PADD 4 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 385 320 65 376 9 185 200 261 124PADD 5 PADD 5 - West Coast 1,321 1,234 87 1,115 206 1,052 269 1,071 250

STORAGE (kbl) Total 518,119 508,592 9,527 502,442 15,677 470,676 47,443 368,552 149,567

PADD 1 PADD 1 - East Coast 17,989 17,534 455 17,502 488 16,494 1,495 11,486 6,503PADD 2 PADD 2 - Midwest 149,667 150,956 -1,289 149,754 -87 146,907 2,760 113,761 35,906

Cushing (Oklahoma) 64,568 65,270 -702 64,834 -266 64,697 -129 45,524 19,044PADD 3 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 274,396 267,571 6,825 261,716 12,680 231,002 43,394 173,040 101,356PADD 4 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 23,896 23,199 697 23,360 536 19,078 4,818 16,258 7,638PADD 5 PADD 5 - West Coast 52,172 49,332 2,840 50,110 2,062 57,194 -5,022 54,006 -1,834

GASOLINE

WEEK 62017

Storage (kb) Price

Range 2012 - 2016

2015 2016

2017 5Y AVG

Production (kb) Imports (kb)

Days of Supply

6

8,2508,4258,6008,7758,9509,1259,3009,4759,6509,825

10,00010,17510,35010,525

195,000200,000205,000210,000215,000220,000225,000230,000235,000240,000245,000250,000255,000260,000

300400500600700800900

1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,500

21.7522.5023.2524.0024.7525.5026.2527.0027.7528.5029.2530.00

GASOLINEEXECUTIVE SUMMARY

7

Current Past Week Variation 4 Weeks Avrg Variation Past Year Variation 5 Years Avrg Variation2/10/2017 2/3/2017 vs current vs current 2/5/2016 vs current vs current

IMPLIED DEMAND & VOLUME SUPPLIED (kbl /day) Volume Supplied 8,433 8,941 -508 8,431 2 9,122 -689 8,460 -27REFINERY OUTPUT (kbl / day) Total 8,950 8,950 0 9,170 -220 8,936 14 8,855 95 Adjustement (Blend) -323 -628 305 -141 -183 -701 378 -212 -111 PADD 1 - East Coast 2,927 3,004 -77 2,944 -17 3,008 -81 2,807 120 PADD 2 - Midw est 2,391 2,435 -44 2,391 1 2,474 -83 2,280 111 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 2,110 2,225 -115 2,124 -14 2,341 -231 2,150 -40 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 300 275 25 293 7 289 11 305 -5 PADD 5 - West Coast 1,545 1,639 -94 1,559 -14 1,525 20 1,525 20IMPORTS (kbl / day) Total 604 811 -207 624 -20 684 -80 531 73 PADD 1 - East Coast 434 743 -309 516 -82 602 -168 499 -65 PADD 2 - Midw est 15 15 0 14 2 11 4 9 6 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 113 43 70 75 38 13 100 6 107 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 PADD 5 - West Coast 41 9 32 19 22 58 -17 19 22STORAGE (kbl) Total 259,064 256,217 2,847 233,209 25,855 255,657 3,407 239,363 19,701 PADD 1 - East Coast 76,285 73,845 2,440 73,817 2,468 68,763 7,522 64,678 11,607 PADD 2 - Midw est 59,729 60,251 -522 58,946 783 62,851 -3,122 56,027 3,702 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 83,391 83,203 188 84,443 -1,052 83,717 -326 78,746 4,645 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 8,534 8,613 -79 8,375 159 7,309 1,225 7,205 1,329 PADD 5 - West Coast 31,125 30,305 820 30,816 309 33,017 -1,892 32,707 -1,582DAYS OF SUPPLY: STORAGE vs VOLUME SUPPLIED (4w AVERAGE)

Gasoline Stocks gained 2 847 kb to 259 064 kb, which is 19 701 kb/d above the 5y Average (239 363 kb), 25 855 kb/d above the 4w average (233 209 kb), and 3 407 kb/d above the last year (255 657 kb).

The rise was run by PADD 3 with a gain of 2 440 kb, and lower Gasoline imports (- 207 kb/d).

PADD 2, PADD 3, PADD 4, PADD 5 storage levels moved respectively by- 522 kb, 188 kb, - 79 kb, 820 kb

With current level Gasoline stocks reached a new high for week 6 (over 5 past years).

Weekly volume supplied of Gasoline reduced by 508 kb/d to 8 433 kb/d. 4w Average reached 8 431 kb (+ 2 kb/d), and linked to stocks level achieved 30.7 days of supply.

Gasoline production remain same 0 kb/d to 8 950 kb/d. That is 95 kb/d above the 5y Average (8 855 kb), 220 kb/d beneath the 4w average (9 170 kb), and 14 kb/d above the last year (8 936 kb).

Gasoline imports down by 207 kb/d to 604 kb/d. I t's 73 kb/d superior to the 5y Average ( 531 kb), 20 kb/d behind the 4w average ( 624 kb), and 80 kb/d beneath the last year ( 684 kb).

DISTILLATES

WEEK 62017

Storage (kb)

Range 2012 - 2016

2015 2016

2017 5Y AVG

Production (kb) Imports (kb)

Days of Supply

8

97,500105,000112,500120,000127,500135,000142,500150,000157,500165,000172,500180,000

21.7522.5023.2524.0024.7525.5026.2527.0027.7528.5029.2530.00

2575

125175225275325375425475525575

3,8003,9254,0504,1754,3004,4254,5504,6754,8004,9255,0505,1755,300

Price

DISTILLATESEXECUTIVE SUMMARY

9

2/10/2017 2/3/2017 vs current vs current 2/5/2016 vs current vs currentIMPLIED DEMAND & VOLUME SUPPLIED (kbl /day) Volume Supplied 3,853 3,910 -57 3,804 49 3,162 691 3,778 75REFINERY OUTPUT (kbl / day) Total 4,530 4,801 -271 4,646 -116 4,358 172 4,482 48 PADD 1 - East Coast 319 362 -43 332 -13 285 34 294 25 PADD 2 - Midwest 1,055 1,133 -78 1,089 -34 1,067 -12 1,027 28 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 2,472 2,526 -54 2,496 -24 2,342 130 2,456 16 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 209 203 6 206 3 142 67 181 28 PADD 5 - West Coast 475 577 -102 523 -48 522 -47 525 -50IMPORTS (kbl / day) Total 196 268 -72 207 -11 200 -4 203 -7 PADD 1 - East Coast 150 203 -53 178 -28 158 -8 181 -31 PADD 2 - Midwest 0 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 4 -4 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 0 0 0 0 0 34 -34 0 0 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 2 -1 PADD 5 - West Coast 64 5 59 26 38 7 57 6 58STORAGE (kbl) Total 170,056 170,747 -691 115,937 54,119 160,976 9,080 134,977 35,079 PADD 1 - East Coast 65,826 68,212 -2,386 66,971 -1,145 62,324 3,502 42,619 23,207 PADD 2 - Midwest 34,778 34,369 409 34,207 572 33,287 1,491 31,194 3,584 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 49,881 49,438 443 50,552 -671 47,201 2,680 43,136 6,745 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 3,942 3,870 72 3,931 12 3,389 553 3,712 230 PADD 5 - West Coast 15,629 14,858 771 14,507 1,122 14,775 854 14,316 1,313DAYS OF SUPPLY: STORAGE vs VOLUME SUPPLIED (4w AVERAGE) Total 44.7

The upward trend begun 3 weeks ago was interrupted, and Distillates stocks down by 691 kb to 170 056 kb, which is 35 079 kb/d superior to the 5y Average (134 977 kb), 54 119 kb/d over the 4w average (115 937 kb), and 9 080 kb/d above the last year (160 976 kb).

The reduction was led by PADD 1 with a fall of 2 386 kb.

PADD 2, PADD 3, PADD 4, PADD 5 storage levels moved respectively by 409 kb, 443 kb, 72 kb, 771 kb

With current level Distillates stocks reached a new high for week 6 (over 5 past years).

Weekly volume supplied of Distillates declined by 57 kb/d to 3 853 kb/d. 4w Average reached 3 804 kb (+ 49 kb/d), and linked to stocks level achieved 44.7 days of supply.

Distillates production fell by 271 kb/d to 4 530 kb/d. That is 48 kb/d above the 5y Average (4 482 kb), 116 kb/d behind the 4w average (4 646 kb), and 172 kb/d over the last year (4 358 kb).

Distillates imports reduced by 72 kb/d to 196 kb/d. I t's 7 kb/d under the 5y Average ( 203 kb), 11 kb/d inferior to the 4w average ( 207 kb), and 4 kb/d behind the last year ( 200 kb).

KEROSENE

WEEK 62017

Storage (kb)

Range 2012 - 2016

2015 2016

2017 5Y AVG

Production (kb) Imports (kb)

Days of Supply

10

32,00033,35034,70036,05037,40038,75040,10041,45042,80044,15045,500

20.0021.0022.0023.0024.0025.0026.0027.0028.0029.0030.0031.0032.0033.0034.0035.00

1,1851,2351,2851,3351,3851,4351,4851,5351,5851,6351,6851,7351,785

03570

105140175210245280315350385420

Price

KEROSENEEXECUTIVE SUMMARY

11

IMPLIED DEMAND & VOLUME SUPPLIED (kbl /day) Volume Supplied 1,173 1,834 -661 1,544 -371 1,616 -443 1,424 -251REFINERY OUTPUT (kbl / day) Total 1,646 1,662 -16 1,649 -3 1,570 76 1,498 148 PADD 1 - East Coast 72 74 -2 76 -4 77 -5 70 2 PADD 2 - Midw est 251 228 23 254 -3 236 15 229 22 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 840 822 18 832 8 776 64 747 93 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 27 34 -7 31 -4 35 -8 26 1 PADD 5 - West Coast 456 504 -48 456 0 446 10 426 30IMPORTS (kbl / day) Total 86 208 -122 120 -34 110 -24 92 -6 PADD 1 - East Coast 27 74 -47 48 -21 67 -40 64 -37 PADD 2 - Midw est 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PADD 5 - West Coast 58 133 -75 72 -14 43 15 27 31STORAGE (kbl) Total 43,151 40,584 2,567 42,591 560 41,697 1,454 39,674 3,477 PADD 1 - East Coast 8,691 8,968 -277 9,542 -851 10,365 -1,674 9,729 -1,038 PADD 2 - Midw est 7,506 6,857 649 6,997 509 7,071 435 7,201 305 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 16,320 14,574 1,746 15,656 664 13,623 2,697 12,544 3,776 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 633 667 -34 634 -1 743 -110 650 -17 PADD 5 - West Coast 10,001 9,518 483 9,762 239 9,895 106 9,550 451DAYS OF SUPPLY: STORAGE vs VOLUME SUPPLIED (4w AVERAGE) Total 27.9

The downward trend begun 2 weeks ago was interrupted, and Kerosene stocks gained 2 567 kb to 43 151 kb, which is 3 477 kb/d superior to the 5y Average (39 674 kb), 560 kb/d over the 4w average (42 591 kb), and 1 454 kb/d above the last year (41 697 kb).

The gain was led by PADD 3 with a build of 1 746 kb, and lower implied demand (- 661 kb/d).

PADD 1, PADD 2, PADD 4, PADD 5 storage levels moved respectively by- 277 kb, 649 kb, - 34 kb, 483 kb

With current level Kerosene stocks reached a new high for week 6 (over 5 past years).

Weekly volume supplied of Kerozene declined by 661 kb/d to 1 173 kb/d. 4w Average reached 1 544 kb (- 371 kb/d), and linked to stocks level achieved 27.9 days of supply.

Kerosene production declined by 16 kb/d to 1 646 kb/d. That is 148 kb/d superior to the 5y Average (1 498 kb), 3 kb/d under the 4w average (1 649 kb), and 76 kb/d above the last year (1 570 kb).

Kerosene imports fell by 122 kb/d to 86 kb/d. I t's 6 kb/d below the 5y Average ( 92 kb), 34 kb/d under the 4w average ( 120 kb), and 24 kb/d behind the last year ( 110 kb).

REFINERY RUNEXECUTIVE SUMMARY

12

Current Past Week Variation 4 Weeks Avrg Variation Past Year Variation2/10/2017 2/3/2017 vs current vs current 2/5/2016 vs current

OPERABLE CAPACITY (kbl / day) Total USA 18,475 18,475 0 18,475 0 18,172 303 PADD 1 - East Coast 1,278 1,278 0 1,278 0 1,273 5 PADD 2 - Midwest 3,957 3,957 0 3,957 0 3,878 79 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 9,620 9,620 0 9,620 0 9,437 183 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 696 696 0 696 0 651 45 PADD 5 - West Coast 2,924 2,924 0 2,924 0 2,933 -9GROSS INPUT (kbl / day) Total USA 15,769 16,208 -439 16,148 -379 15,643 126 PADD 1 - East Coast 996 1,073 -77 1,044 -48 1,022 -26 PADD 2 - Midwest 3,647 3,695 -48 3,699 -52 3,709 -62 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 8,170 8,293 -123 8,316 -146 7,992 178 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 624 603 21 615 10 443 181 PADD 5 - West Coast 2,332 2,544 -212 2,475 -143 2,477 -145% UTILISATION Total USA 85.35% 87.73% -2.38 87.40% -2.05 86.08% -0.73 PADD 1 - East Coast 77.93% 83.96% -6.03 81.71% -3.78 80.28% -2.35 PADD 2 - Midwest 92.17% 93.38% -1.21 93.47% -1.30 95.64% -3.48 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 84.93% 86.21% -1.28 86.44% -1.52 84.69% 0.24 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 89.66% 86.64% 3.02 88.29% 1.36 68.05% 21.61 PADD 5 - West Coast 79.75% 87.00% -7.25 84.63% -4.87 84.45% -4.70OUTPUT (kbl / day) : Motor Gas / Distillate / Kerozene / Residual Total USA 15,966 16,520 -554 16,091 -125 15,988 -22 PADD 1 - East Coast 3,353 3,476 -123 3,396 -43 3,416 -63 PADD 2 - Midwest 3,747 3,847 -100 3,790 -43 3,823 -76 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 5,697 5,801 -104 5,676 22 5,674 23 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 551 527 24 543 8 477 74 PADD 5 - West Coast 2,618 2,869 -251 2,687 -69 2,598 20