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Hanvey, Robert G.An Attainable Global Perspective.Denver Univ., Colo. Center for Teaching InternationalRelations.; New York Friends Group, Inc., New York.Center for War/Peace Studies.National Endowment for the Humanities (NFAH),Washington, D.C.Nov 7531p.'Center for War/Peace Studies, 218 East 18th Street,New York, New York 10003 ($1.00)

MF-$0.76 Plus Postage. HC Not Available from EDRS.*Conceptual Schemes; Cross Cultural Studies;*Cultural Awareness; Decision Making; ElementarySecondary Education; Futures (of Society); *GlobalApproach; School Role;"Social Studies; *TeachingTechniques; Values; World Affairs; *World Problems

A more complete understanding of global perspectiveis provided in this essay through an examination of the modes ofthought, sensitivities, intellectual skills, and explanatorycapacities which contribute to the formation of a global perspective.With an emphasis on both a formal and informal educational level, theessay is divided into five sections which examine the requirementsfor an attainable global perspective. Section 1, PerspectiveConsciousness, underscores the need to recognize the concept thateveryone's perspective is shaped by subtle influences and that othersmay have different perspectives. Section 2, State of Vq: PlanetAwareness, examines the problems and solutions for increasing theability of individuals to intelligently interpret information aboutworld conditions. Section 3, Cross Cultural Awareness, describes thedifferent degrees of -cross- cultural awareness and the,necessity toreach a stage beyond empathy where one has the capacity'to imagineoneself in a role within the context of a foreign culture. Section 4,Knowledge of GlObal Dynamics, analyzes the world as an interdependentsystem where the issue of growth may be the predominant contemporaryproblem. Section 5, A.;--z1.11Ass of Human Choices, emphasizes thatincreased global' iperspectiVb will require difficult value decisionsabout the solutions to our world problems. (Author 'DE)

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An

AttainableGlobal

Perspective

ROBERT G. HANVEY

This exploration was made possible partly through a grantfrom the National Endowment for the Humanities to theCENTER FOR TEACHING 'INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,which commissioned Robert G. Hanvey to undertake thetask. It is published by the Center for War/Peace Studies.

CENTER FOR TEACHING INTERNATIONAL RELATIONSGraduate School of International StudiesUniversity of Denver, Denver, CO 80210

CENTER FOR WAR/PEACE STUDIES218 East 18th Street, New York, NY 10003

An Attainable Global Perspective

Robert G. Hanvey

CONTENTS

Introduction

Dimension 1: Perspective Consciousness

Dimension 2: "State of the Planet" Awareness

Dimension 3: Cross-cultural Awareness

Dimension 4: Knowledge of Global Dynamics

Dimension 5: Awareness of Human Choices

8

13

This e .say is a beginning effort to define some elements of what we call aglobal perspective to flesh out some of the things- we will need to knowand understand,,if we are to cope with the challenges of an increasingly inter-dependent world. The views are those of the author, published here to beginthe discussion, debate, and analysis which will be necessary for a widespreadand more complete understanding of what global perspectives are and howthey can become part of the school curriculum.

Another exploration of questions raised for education by interdependenceis the publication A New Civic Literacy: American Education and GlobalInterdependence by Ward Morehouse, Interdependence Series # 3, publishedby the Aspen Institute for Humanist;c Studies, Rosedale Road, P.O. Box 2820,Princeton, NJ 08540. This is available at $1.00 per copy.

Robert G. Hanvey

An Attainable Global Perspective

IntroductionThis is an attempt to describe certain modes of thought,

sensitivities, intellectual skills, and explanatory capacitieswhiCh might in some measure contribute to the formation ofa global perspective and which young people In the U.S.might actually he able to acquire in the course of their for-mal and informal education. That is what-is- meant here by anattainable global perspective. By speaking in such terms, weimply a modesty of goals. This indeed is our orientation, toprovide some contrast with the general practice of statingobjectives in ideal and often extreme terms.

What is a global perspective? Operationally,we will say thatit consists partly of the modes of thought, skills, etc. thatwill be discussed in the following pages. But as conceivedhere a global perspective is not a quantum, something youeither have or don't have. It is a blend of many things andany given individual may be rich in certain elements andrelatively lacking in others. The educational goal broadlyseen may be to socialize_ significant collectivities of people sothat the important elements of a global perspective are repre-sented in the group. Viewed in this way a global perspectivemay be a variable trait possessed in some form and degree bya population, with the precise character of that perspectivedetermined by the specialized capaciues, predispositions, andattitudes of the group's members. The implication of thisnotion, of course, is that diversified talents and inclinationscan be encouraged and that standardized educational effectsare not required. Every individual does not have to bebrought to the same level of intellectual and moral develop-ment in order for a population to be moving in the directionof a more global perspective.

In keeping with modesty of aspirations it is especially.important at the outset to admit the limited impact of for-mal schooling and the often profound impact of informalsocialization. Schools are hard put to match the drama andappeal of the mass media or the grip on behavior and attitude

2

exerted by the peer group. Furthermore, whatever is learnedwhile young is continuously reshaped by later experience.The world view of an American farmer will no doubt reflecthis schooling to some extent, but it is likely to be most impor-tantly influenced by exigencies associated with his role as afarmer and by attitudes currently held by his most importantreference group other farmers.

If adult role and informal agencies of socialization arevery important, can the schools contribute meaningfully?Yes, especially if they are able to stake out areas of specialcompetence. The schools must select a niche that comple-ments the other educative agencies of the society. To theextent that those other agencies and influences work againsta global perspective the schools can perform a correctivefunction; to the extent that the other agencies are glib andsuperficial the schools can seek to be more thorough; to theextent that the other agencies have blind spots the schoolscan work to supply the missing detail; to the extent that theother agencies direct the attention to the short-term extra-ordinary event the schools cart assert the value of examiningthe long-term situation or trend (which is sometimes extra-ordinary in its own right).

Consider, for example, public information and socializa-tion in the U.S. with respect to nuclear weapons policies. Formany years the governments of the U.S. and the USSR haveinfluenced each other in multiple ways by developing, main-taining, and threatening to use nuclear weapons of awesomedestructiveness. The populations of each country, and thepopulation of the world, have been held hostage to this terri-ble threat. But neither government really informs its popula-tion about the true dimensions of the threat. Films ofH-bomb tests, for example, have not been shown to theAmerican or Russian people. Generations of school childrengrow up without examining this profound influence onnational and international policies, without really under-

media threshold

"event"

vl

"event"

long-term phenomenon

standing what a single warhead would do to a city and itsenvirons. Occasionally, when th,;..e is some change-or specialevent such as a weapons test or a political agreement thelong-standing theories of deterrence will be reviewed in themedia. But there is little probing of the assumptions thatunderlie the policies, or reexamination of the potentialitiesof destruction. The media are event-centered. A volcano is ofinterest to them only when it erupts.

The result of this pattern is that the general perception ofimportant phenomena is limited and distorted; the publicsees only those manifestations that are novel enough to riseabove the media's threshold of excitability. But the phenom-ena, watitettrt%they policies of deterrence, or ,corporateinvestments in the developing countries, or governmentinvestments in scientific research, or the protein consump-tion habits of industrialized populations, continue to affectour lives, visible or, not.

In fairness to the media it must be admitted that suchphenomena are not, by and large, intrinsically interesting tomost people. To specialized groups, yes, but not to broadpublics. And interest is what keeps newspapers and televisionstations alive. It must also be admitted that some newspapersprovide extremely important resources for broad p'iblic edu-cation and that the television networks occasionally reachmillions with significant documentaries and backgroundstories. But the general characterization of the media asevent-centered is not, I think, unreasonable.

The media, of course, are more than event- centered. Theyare culture-bound and culture-generating. That is, they re-flect the culture and reinforce it but are also capable ofturning it in new directions. The culture says, "Consume!"and the media transmit that message ingeniously, seduc-tively, repetitively, persuasively. Very persuasively. And theaudience responds to the cultural command. It does notquestion what it is told to consume. Electric heating is

3

clean be the proud owner of an all-electric house. Be surethat the new car can reach 60 miles per hour in ten seconds,even with the air conditioner on. Buy the lawn fertilizer withthe weed killer built in. Then the times change and the mes-sages change. Consume, yes, but also conserve. And watchfor environmental effects. And the media, always there onthe growing edge of cultural transformation, pass the newmessages along with the same devotion to technical qualityam' the same servility to whatever it is currently correct tobelieve in that particular society. the messages may be social-ly useful or not. But the influence is there, the long reachinto every home and hotel room and bar, the powerful rein-forcing of enduring cultural ideas, themes, stereotypes,coupled with the equally powerful capacity to mobilize alto-gether new patterns of belief and opinion almost overnight.

If this is the way the media are: event-centered, andpotent servants of both traditional and emergent elements ofthe national culture, what then for the schools? The schools,after all, are also carriers of the national culture. But theschools must stake out a niche that balances and corrects themedia. The schools may be bearers of culture but they arealso agents of an academic tradition that encourages scrutinyof that which seems conventional and obvious. If the mediadirect attention to events, the schools must look beneath theapparent event at the phenomena really involved. If themedia say, "Believe this way!" the schools must reveal thatin other times and other places people believed and nowbelieve in quite different ways. At the very least every youngperson should have experiences in school which demonstratein a lasting fashion that (1) there are substrata to the visible

event and (2) culture affects the perception of human affairs.Thus educated, the person's reactions to reports in the mediashould be, minimally, "There may be more there than meetsthe eye," and "Other eyes might see it differently." Thoseare truisms but the schools can put flesh on them.

DIMENSION 1

Perspective Consciousness

the recognition or awareness on the part of the individual that he or she has aview of the world that is not universally shared, that this view of the worldhas been and continues to,be shaped by influences that often escape con-scious detection, and that others have views of the world that are profoundlydifferent from one's own

Few of us in our lives can actually transcend the view-point presented by the common carriers of information andalmost none of us can transcend the cognitive mapping pre-sented by the culture we grew up in. But with effort we canat least develop a dim sense that we have a perspective, thatit can be shaped by subtle influences, that others have differ-ent perspectives. This recognition of the existence, the malle-ability, and the diversity Of perspective we might call per-spective consciousness. Such an acknowledgement is an im-portant step in the development of a perspective that canlegitimately be called global.

Achieving perspective consciousness is no small ace=plishment. It is probably true that most people in most soci-eties do -not sense the uniqueness of their own or theirsociety's worla view. Herman Kahn in The Emerging Japa-nese Superstate tells the following anecdote:

The Japanese do not think of themselves as beingracist. I once brought sharp surprise to a number ofsenior Americans and Japanese with whom I was hav-ing dinner by suggesting that in some ways Japan is themost racist nation in the world. One of them asked meto explain what I meant. I started, of course, with theobvious point that the Japanese, at least in comparisonwith other groups, are relatively pure racially. Thereare, so to speak, no blond Japanese, no red-hairedJapanese, no blue-eyed Japanese. And the attitude ofthe Japanese toward miscegenation is very differentfrom that of, say, the French or the Chinese. If some-body is born of a mixed marriage in France or Chinabut grows up perfectly familiar with and skilled in theindigenous culture, he is largely accepted. That is nottrue in Japan. The children of mixed marriages aremore or less permanently barred from participatingfully and comfortably in the society. Those bars alsohold against children born in Japan but of Korean orChinese parentage. One crucial point in the discussionwas that the Japanese do not normally notice that theydiscriminate against these minorities, because the dis-

4

crimination is so thorough that the issue usually doesnot arise [my italics] . I asked the Japanese if theycould imagine, for example, having a General of Kore-an parentage. They could not. I pointed out that itwas perfectly possible in China.*

It could be argued that people are very aware of differ-ences in perspective, or at least of opinion. The Japanese may

helbe blind to t racism, but Americans are surely aware ofthe racist elemlts in their own society and keenly awarethat different factions within the society have different views4 appropriate behavior with respect to minorities. And if themedia are important shapers of perspective, isn't it true thatconflict and dispute are the main diet of the press and elec-tronic media? Anyone exposed to these influences must cer-tainly know very early in life that people differ radically intheir perspectives.

Opinion and Perspective

Here, I think, one must make a distinction between opin-ion and perspective. Opinion is the surface layer, the con-scious outcropping of perspective. But there are deep andhidden layers of perspective that may be more important inorienting behavior. In such deep layers lies the Japanese viewof other ethnic groups. Korean inferiority, note, is not amatter of opinion to the Japanese. It is profoundly assumedand thus not recognized as racism by the Japanese. Similarly,in the deep layers of Western civilization has been theassumption that human dominance over nature is both at-tainable and desirable. This, too, until recently, has not beena matter of opinion.

One of the interesting things that reform and protestmovements do is to carry out mining operations in the deeplayers. They dredge to the surface aspects of perspective that

Herman Kahn, The Emerging Japanese Superstate (Prentice-Hall,1970), pp. 72,73.

perspective

opinion

ordinarily unexaminedassumptions,evaluations,

explanations,conceptions of

time, space,causality, etc.

yyliall

5

have never before seen the light of day. Once made.visible,these nay become the foci of debate, matters of opinion.The environmental movement surfaced the assumption ofman's right to dominion over nature and thus posed somephilosophical choices that had previously escaped notice, Thefeminist movement raised, the consciousness of women and

men with respect to."woman's place." They labeled the mostcommonplace behaviors and. attitudes "chauvinist," and thusrevealed the deeper layers of perspective in action.

I have suggested that with effort we can develop in the

young at least a dim sense, a groping recognition of the factthat they have a perspective. And this is very different fromknowing that they have opinions. At the present time theschools and the media socialize all of us to he traders-inopinion. We learn this through .discussion and debate,through the contentious format of forums and organizationalmeetings, through talk shows and newspaper columnists. We

learn, especially, that the individual is expected to have opin-

ions and to be willing to assert them. And we learn tacit rulesabout "tolerating" differences in opinions so asserted.

We can also learn, if we approach the task with a suresense of purpose, how to probe the deep layers of perspec-tive. A variety of specialists and social commentators regu-

larly operate in these realms and there are well-developed

methods and techniques. Some of these methods can belearned and practiced. For example, some (but not all) valuesclarification exercises can heighten awareness of otherwiseunrevealed aspects of perspective. At the very least if shouldbe possible to teach almost any young person to recognize a

probe of the deep layers when he sees it. Such probes comein many forms, from the ironic humor of a "Doonesbury"cartoon strip to the pop sociology of a book like FutureShock.

There are practical steps that schools can take to developperspective consciousness in students and to develop otherdimensions that will contribute to the enhancement of aglobal perspective. We turn, now, to those other dimensions.

DIMENSION 2

"State of the Planet" Awareness

awareness of prevailing world conditions and developments, including emer-gent-conditions and trconditions, resourcescience and technol

nds, e.g. population gtoWth, migrations, economicand physical environent, political developments,y, ealth, ilk:nation and intra-nation conflicts, etc.

O

For most people in the world direct experience beyond picture of world conditions? That question matters becausethe local community is infrequent or nonexistent. It is not it is' difficult to imagine a global perspective that does notuncommon to meet resiaents of'Chicago neighborhoods who jaielude a reasonably dependable sense of what shape thehave never traveled the few miles to the central business/ world is in.district, or sophisticated New Yoi.ktaxicab dr",never been further south than i delphia. If this is true fora geographically mobile society like the U.S. it is even more afact for other parts of the world. Tourism, urban migrations,commerce, and business travel notwithstanding, most peoplelive out their live§ in rather circumscribed local suiroundings.

Communication Media and Planet Awareness

But direct experience is not the way that contemporarypeoples learn about their world. Margaret Mead writes:

Only yesterday, a New Guinea native's only contactwith modern civilization may have been a trade knifethat was passed from hand to hand into his village oran airplane seen in the sky; today, as soon as he entersthe smallest frontier settlement, he meets the transistorradio. tIntil yesterday, the village dwellers everywherewere cut off from the urban life of their own country;today radio and television bring them sounds and sights

cities all over the world.*

Nonliterate villager or suburban housewife, if doesn'tmatter that one stays close to home. Information travels,rapidly and far. News of a border crisis in the Middle Eastreaches within hours the shopkeeper in Nairobi, the steelworker insSweden, the PeruVian villpger. There is now a dem-onstrated ;,techntcalcaNcity for simultaneous transmission ofmessages ,to almost tKentire human species, The characterof the messages is something else again. Here we must ask,Do the messages received on those millions of transistorradios and television sets contribute meaningfully to a valid

41

* Margaret Mead; Culture and Commitment (Natural History Press/Doubleday, 1970), p. 71.

6

Generally speaking, the media in almost every countrywill transmit news from around the world. As we discussedearlier, the fundamental quality of news is its focus on theextraordinary event. An outbreak of influenza is news;endemic malaria is not. A rapid decline in values on theworld's stock excha-nges is news; the long-standing poverty ofhundreds of millions is not. So, there are significant limitsand distortions in the view of the wkirld conveyed by newsmedia. Nonetheless, the prospect is not entirely bleak. Forone thing, the characteristic interests of the news media canbe exploited; events can be staged in such a way as tos callattention to world conditions not ordinarily juaged news-worthy. A world conference can be con \'ened on food orpopulation or pollution problems. The conference itself is-news. More importantly, the condition that gives rise to theconference takes on a neWlevel of visibility--worldwide. Andthe news media are the instruments of this increasedawareness.

Communication media, of course, transmit more thannews. The local community's images of the world outside aredrawn to a substantial degree from the make - believe, world ofcinema and television drama. Tie distortions associated withdramatic presentations are well documented. The lifewaysand cultural types of other countries are frequently carica-tured; ironically, the lifeways and types of one's own societyare also commonly caricatured. While the export of films andtelevision series from a country may mean an improved bal-ance of payments, it by no means assures an improved bal-ance of perspective. The world consumers of Aanerican tele-vision and film can be excused for believing that, the U.S.population consists largely of ranchers, doctors, policemen,and gangsters.

if

'°1

Limits to Understanding

There are other sources of distortion. Political ideologychokes off the flow ''1. some inhumation, the defense andsecurity syndrome nations blocks still other intormatiop,and the selective disinterest of audiences constricts yet otherchannels. As an instance of the first, Americans until recentlyhave had little access to inforimition about Cuba underCastro. As an example of the second '-,the testing, of nuclearweapons by the French and the ImIiansIkrecent years pro-duced few hard details about site, yield, fallow. etc. (Govern-ments have ways to obtain the intOrmation; puhlics do not.) Asti- patterns of audience interest and disinterest\ consider howlittle attention is paid to the affairs of small rations, or toconditions in the rural areas of the world. And) with no com-plaint from the audience.

Finally, there is the matter of the technical nature ofworld data. There aie now unprecedented resources for gencrating information shout the state of the planet, and forsharing and processing the inhumation in order to obtain asense of the important patterns. But the procedures are high-ly technical and the results expressed in technical terms. Acertain level of education is required to see the full signifi:cance of the data. The case of ozone in the stratosphere isinstructive.

While environmental scientists are concerned about too-high ozone levels in the air of cities (since it produces emphy-sema-like effects) there is also concern about the possibledepletion of ozone in the stratosphere. Ozone in the strato-sphere blocks out much of the sun's ultraviolet radiation.Such radiation is so harmful that scientists believe that sur-face life did not evolve on the earth until after the ozonelayer had been formed. There is now a real possibility thatgases released into the air by man will redu,_7e this ozone bysignificant amounts. One villain is the propellant gas used inaerosol cans. This gas is very inert in the atmosphere (whichis why it can be mixed with the many compounds found inspray cans), but recent research has shown that it breaksdown under certain wavelengths of 'ultraviolet light. When itbreaks down, chlorine is released, which acts as a catalyst anddestroys ozone. Thus, the gas escapes into the atmospherewhen the spray can is used; it does not degrade in the atmos-phere (since it does not react with other gases); some of itseeps into the stratosphere, is broken down by ultravioletlight, and the released chlorine destroys ozone. Predictedresults: increased number of skin cancer cases, possible biCt-logical damage to vegetation and some insect species, possibleeffects on plankton in the oceans, possible effects on climate.

This is a world condition. Even if we stop using aerosolcans now, piopellant gas which might destroy an estimated Spercent of the planet's ozone layer has already been released.If the propellant gases continue to be produced and produc-tion increases at its present annual rate, then ozone depletionmight reach 30 percent by lq94.* ,

These projections are not certainties. Furthermore, theozone, even if depleted. will eventually build to originalrevels if the destructive agents ere controlled. So the situationis not necessarily dire. But there is a basis for concern. The

"Stratospheric Pollution: Mult!T Threats to Earth's Ozone."- Science, October 2 5, 1974, pp. 3.1S-338.

question is, Who will understand and share that concern'? Cana problem like stratospheric ozone depletion he widely com-prehended so that it becomes a living part of what a generalpopulace 'vows about the planer? Or are such problemsfated to stay Within the private realms of specialists'?

Overcoming the Limitations

This is an instance where the energies of the schools, prop-erly directed, might resolve the question in favor of the gen-eral populace. It' from the earliest grades on students ex-amined and puzzled over cases where seemingly innocent be-haviors the diet rich in animal protein, the lavish use offertilizer u n the suburban lawn and golf course were shownto have effects that were both unintended and global inscope, then there could be a receptivity for the kind of infor-mation involved iu the ozone case. The ozone situationwould not seem forbidding; it would be another instance of a'model already documented. Students would have a frame-work within which to handle it. As for the technical aspectsof the ozone .situation, these do not seem beyond the reachof science and social studies departments that focus coopera-tively on the technical dimensions of significant planetaryconditions. It may be true that school programs are not typi-cally organized for such qe,-.task, but it is not outside theboundaries of our predilections or our capacities.

Suppose the schools do not Work at the task of increasingthe ability of individuals to consume information intelli-gently about world conditions, or even at the simpler task oftransmitting raw information about such conditions. Sup-pose, for example, that the schools choose to ignore environ-mental conditions, problems of world resources, trends inpopulation, the economic circumstances of various world re-gions, political developments, social movements, changes intechnology, developments in world law, etc. Can a "state ofthe planet" awareness be achieved without the participationof formal educational institutions? I suspect so. Despite theflaws and distortions of the media there is simply no ques-tion that people everywhere are being reached with a flow ofinformation about planetary, conditions a flow that wouldhave seemed impossible even a generation ago. The quantityof information will probably continue to increase. And sowill the quality. General public awareness of the_ state of theplanet may be one of the more attainable elements in aglobal perspective.

'Furthermore, we are not entirely dependent on broadpublic awareness, whether it comes from the media or thesdio' '-. Since a global perspective is here defined as a collec-tive achievement, the role of specialists should he given itsdue. Every society depends on its specialists to sense aspectsof the environment not generally perceived by the masses. Ifthe specialists are aware of important conditions in theworld, then in effect the whole society has the benefit ofthat awareness (or at least potentially has the benefit of it).Perhaps few people can grasp the meaning and danger ofexponential growth in population aid resource consumption.But if those few can share their alarm with policymakers thedirection and value orientation of whole nations can healtered.

7

DIMENSION 3

Cross-cultural Awareness

awareness of the diverSity of ideas and practices to be found in human socie-ties around the world, of how such ideas and practices compare, and includingsome limited recognition of how the ideas and ways of one's own societymight be viewed from other vantage points

This may he one of the more difficult dimensions to at-tain. It is one thing to have some knowledge of world condi-tions. The air is saturated with that kind of information. It isanother thing to comprehend and accept the consequences ofthe basic human capacity for creating unique cultures withthe resultant profOund differences in outlook and practicemanifested among societies. These differences are widelyknown at the level of myth, prejudice, and tourist impres-sion. But they are not deeply and truly known in spite ofthe well-worn exhortation to "understand others." Such afundamental acceptance seems to he resisted by powerfulforces in the human psychosocial system. Attainment ofcross-cultural awareness and empathy at a significant levelwill require methods the circumvent or otherwise counterthose resisting forces. Let us think afresh about what suchmethods might he, with a full reclignition of how difficultthe task will he and a corresponding willingness to discardideas that don't work.

Does Understanding Follow Contact

One of the cherished ideas of our own times and of earliertimes is that contact between societies leads to understand-ing. The durability of this notion is awesome considering thethousands of years of documented evidence to the contrary.Consider the following example. When the French began to ex-plore North America they came into contact with a number ofaboriginal granps. At various times they attempted to musterthe males of these groups into fighting units. The Indiansclearly had no aversion to fighting; they were warriors, skilledin the use of arms, proud of triumphs over an enemy. But theywould not take orders. French commanders had no controland the so-called chiefs of these groups depended on persua-sion, which might or Might not he successful. Every individualIndian warrior made his own decisions about whether to joina raid or war party, worked out his own battle strategy, andleft the fray when he chose.

This kind of contact between the French and the Indiansprovided the French with detailed information on the waysof. their Indian allies information they noted scornfully intheir journals, sometimes sputtering in rage and frustration.

But the behavior they described was incomprehensible tothem. By virtue of the concrete experienceS that the Frenchhad with the Indians, the French had rich data but nounderstanding. The French were able to see Indian behavioronly in the light of their own hierarchical social system,where it is natural for the few to command and the many toobey. Social systems that worked on other principles wereliterally unimaginable.

Of course, now we are more sophisticated. What happenswhen the nature of the contact between groups is not one ofexploitation or domination but rather one of sympatheticassistance, and where there is at least some preparation forthe cultural differences that will be encountered? Here is anaccount of Peace Corps experience in the Philippines:

Most human relationships in the world are governedby a pervasive fatalism, in the Philippines best de-scribed by the Tagalog phrase, bahala na, which means,"never mind" or, it will be all right" or, "it makes nodifference." Ainericans, more than any other people inhistory, believe man can control his environment, canshape the forces of nature to change his destiny. Thatpeculiarity, which is essentially Western, is quintessen-tially American.

Most of the peoples of the world also value depen-dency and harmony relationships within the in-group.Rather than stress independence in relationshipsfreedom from restraint and freedom to make choicesthey emphasize reciprocity of obligation and good Willwithin the basic group and protection of that groupagainst outgiders. It is the group family, tribe or clan

which- matters and not the individual. In the Philip-pines, this phenomemon is perhaps best described bythe term utang na bob which means a recipiocal senseof gratitude and obligation.

The value of independence in relationships and get-ting a job done makes us seem self-reliant, frank, em-pirical, hardworking, and efficient to ourselves. To Fili-pinos, the same behavior sometimes makes us seem tobe unaware of our obligations, insensitive to feelings,unwilling to accept established practices, and down-right aggressive....

Nearly all volunteers had to struggle to understandand deal with Filipino behavior that, when seen fromour peculiar stress on independence in relationships as

1 i

opposed to Filipino utang na look was deeply distress-ing. . . Filipinos wanted to he dependent on othersand have others dependent on them; they were oftenashamed in the presence of strangers and authorityfigures; they were afraid of being alone or leaving theirfamilies and communities; they showed extreme defer-ence to superiors and expected the same from subordi-nates; they veiled true feelings and opinions in ordernot to hurt others or be hurt by them

It is one thing to study and understand utang naboob. It is another to have a principal treat you as astatus figure and to insist that you tell him how to runhis school, or to have children in your class cower inwhat seems to be shame, or to have neighbors who caremuch more that you should like them and that youshould have a pleasurable experience than that youshould get, your job done,

Filipinos, with their incessant hospitality and curi-osity, repeatedly made it plain that for them the mainjob of Peace Corps volunteer& was to enjoy themselvesand to enhance pleasure for those around them, anapproach to life best described by the Filipino phrase,pakikisama. . . . Nothing was more difficult for volun-teers to understand or accept than that Filipinoswanted them for pleasure in relationships and not toachieve the tasks to which they had been assigned....

It was not just the Filipino's stress on utang na booband pakikisama which interfered with getting the jobdone. It was also bahala na, the widespread fatalism ofthe barrio which showed itself in the lack of emotionat the death of little children, the persistent and nearlyuniversal beliefs that ghosts and spirits control life anddeath, add the failure of Filipinos to keep promises andappointments. Why should the job matter when fategoverns human existence?

During the first two years, four volunteers resignedand twenty-six others were sent home, usually bymutual agreement, because they were not able or will-ing to cope with the extraordinary psychological bur-dens of being Peace Corps volunteers. Some volunteersdeveloped a "what's the use" attitude and failed toappear at school, or made short unauthorized tripsaway from their barrios. Withdrawal was sometimesfollowed in the same volunteer by extremely hostilebehavior against the Philippine Bureau of PublicSchools, Washington, and the Peace Corps staff. Somevolunteers, particularly those in the first group, wishedthere was some honorable way for them to cut shorttheir tour of duty without an overwhelming sense ofpersonal failure.*

The American Peace Corps volunteers, like the Frenchofficers of the 17th century, could not escape the poWerfulinfluence of their own culture, especially since that culturewas so deeply embedded in the very definition of the ink.sion. The task was to render assistance. And success wasmeasured by some kind of closure, "getting the job done."Filipino behavior stood in the way of getting the job done.There were distractions, delays, and detours. And the posi-tive reinforcements that a busy, efficient American wouldhave received in his home setting were nowhere to be found.

T;'wrence H. Fuchs, "The Role and Communication Task of theChange Agent Experiences of the Peace Corps in the Philip-pines," in Daniel Lerner and Wilbur Schramm, ads., Communica-tion and Change in the Developing Countries (Honolulu: .East-WestCenter Press, 1967), pp. 242-245.

4

9

The result: puzzlement and frustration equivalent to that ofthe French in their relations with Indian groups.

Achieving Understanding

But stink volunteers did solve the cultural puzzlsL

A male volunteer from South Catalina, 4.,12,,:as asmuch admired by Filipinos and volunteers as ariY.vol-unteer in the project. Almost from ,the first,,he ac-cepted people for what they were, learned-the dialect,made friends, and seemed to enjoy that/More than any-thing else. After two years, he. wrote, "I consistentlybelived and followed a life based on getting away fromall identity or entanglement with the Peace Corps. Myreasons were . . . figure out a little bit about whatwas going on in The Philippines, to see what was really_significant in my own place, to try to understand, litehere, and to learn to function in a way that could bemeaningful to me and the community. I burrowed intolife here unmindful of anything but my communityand involvement and survival...."

Although everyone had thought that he epitomizedthe ability of a volunteer to live deeply in the cultureafter it's* months, he wrote toward the end of histhird year, "I have continued to change here and havenow sort of reached a point of being able to feel withothers. This is different from understanding howlheyfeel. I am able to be a part of them as they 'do thingswith each other and me. . .."*

D was a success in both Filipino and Peace Corps terms.So was another volunteer.

Acmale volunteer from Massachusetts ran what ap-pears to have been highly successful in-service trainingclasses on English and science for teachers. He also hadeffective adult education classes and a successful pig-gery- poultry project. He seemed to blend into his com-munity almost from the beginning, becoming one ofthe first volunteers to learn the dialect from his regionand use it extensively. He enjoyed serenading at nightwith the gang from the sari-sari store and drank tubawith the older men. who, as he put it "had the pleasureof learning they could drink the American under theproverbial table.-t

These two cases teach us some useful things. Both volun-teers genuinely joined their communities. They learned thelanguage, sought to "burrow in." Most importantly, they ac-cepted the Filipinos on their own terms and made friendswith them, presumably long before their own understandingof the local culture had developed. D wrote, "The people aredifferent, but willing to take me in...." Somehow or other,the Filipino traits that so frustrated other volunteers werenot an obstacle to these two. Instead. these two acceptpd notonly the worth of the Filipinos but the worth of their ways,enough to practice them joyfully. And out of that long przietice came D's remarkable statement that lie was now able tofeel with others.

Did the two volunteers "go native"? In a sense. Perhapsthe most important respect in which this is true lies in the

Ibid., p. 253.

t Ibid., p. 250.

th ial atitlL tj tbC !cil .t tfltt(a

a ai Ia:t I he e teL'is iii

lic I hat tip ttii va it iced in twoi 11 iia have LCU itil'nailv .ahte to tee pai-

iit: iii 1:. 'va 'atists Iii to iink tuba with theet it, that pai ii tion t hate vua tat

tl:iL the tz: ;'r nz! iur itei'e nut

v ltee: ( inv,ltf the ,ippi av.tl t

ap '.Li . attic inr tiatil ie1 icr that 1) cli- r '' cii cia it i the Peace ('oip a the ap

Iik ! hi's

icli an awareness ul minol it world-views, The i ssmg ele-ments arc lespect aiid pai ticipation. The society offers limit-ed ialitic,zions t'ir reinforcement of respect toi mulorities

and vei limited penalties tar disrespect. And ii ofhrsbsolutelv no rewards to those of the white matoritv who

might seek to participate in mlnorit behavior patterns. Thesit U. It)fl tOT the miiioi it groUs is st)niewhat dift'eretittilL-IC ale o.ial rewat ds !ui pai ticipatilig in the majontv cul-ture and many individuals shuttle moic or less successtuhiv he-t'.cen the tvvu worlds oi woik out some kind of synthesis.

Q6ions

--'

l mat av areness of a proknnii suit iS exiremeIa dii ticimit tt attain - what are the optluns Are tho. esser

varieties of awareness that ijught nonetheless he said to con-IV. h t' I

tribute to a Iohal perspective' Are there better methodsa' -'i a :at a ,i than have typically been employed to reach awareness" Is the

\ ; coal it sd sv urt liw hule. ,e does d1tis,'cii It unit awai enessmattel

I ct me talk to that last question lust Yes, cross-cultural.iWaIeIlcSs does matter. a the tolk Ing matur reason ii forit other. Several million years of evolution seem to haveproduced in Us a creature that does not eiisl! ecogni/e the

.0

menibers of its own species. That is stated ii rather esagger-atd form but it refer-s to the tact that human rtroups coin-tiTonir ha-dittkuit un aicepting the liuntanne of itheihuman eruup.ia a a a .'- an' Irc' ,

a ; a. . a . \pdl idLe that I) teit that L -t.s e call a group ot piimitives iii nitrthemn Noi tha i I n a et'u. aint teelmg m l'thpm v at America Fskimos this nahie. originated h certain

a h it , ii 011 Pri' C. Csfl\'dlaht it :': . Indians to the south of the Eskimos, means "Eaters ofa a at ter au-ta: 'pe icu iii tue dtt -ut:es 0 Raw Flesh" however. the I skinios' own name h

a 0 iItiIili2I.ittts ate u-pi- thiellisdlves is not I-skiifl hut Is Inupuk. meaning ''RealI'eipIe' By their name the- provide a contiast he-

t' '-' a'-ie'c ttttt.tl thiits Itt_s id iitht_ ips tt I ittt. I I uJit ht_a ,. -': a- OetweeT Rt't'iltS ,.!dt ' ' \,people Out me tievem real.

'I T. ae. ':uITn %1.tn

1.1,1 t- at .0 .:ai i nv. .it'e

-V. 1 IT nat

unii Pucipotion Miaaiii Elemonts

'a a ,',- ' : Ta Tun- .iIn:L.-

a. ca _ - . i' !:- e.. :

i-u ,' ic ktnd 'h,i

- , ,, '., i a .': u t';g lIitei' at

I. .i'': na a.i it 1:tCII Sustdiflthl attot,... I, a !,'IT . -.,tiute u- I" 1 1

La' TI. a'.a I he L Lilait Il a

Ih.t!

1 ,:L'-a SI ' i ,in'ge' l t

i", ", ,'- '' ,,. - utte u-Lean it'. ill the III

:.LI.-C. t a

V.1' an, ''Ii" ,Lna,,.' Ci a. leava tht

ta. Lit ,aJro',i aV.aICtlC-:, iS nt le tiL'd- ', '- t" an. V. 0 TC.I, hI t',- a ,' a.a:u' i,'V,eaal t.. L cur 'a'lti e

a .'L .- t' in ,-l:.d', tepitc mnlcgtatlaI ant

( 1.1.0. 'a u a-a': vtc-l'un't aJ:teta

I hi.: nractieg iat naming one's own group "the peopie"and 1 mi i icati in ic lia 11 rig alt 'timers to iu- t -quit c-human'ft ii'. fats heeii docupñemed in ,'toiiIitera te goups all over thevvatld, But ii u sIr1u-1r one maniksi,tiuu ot -t species ti .utthat sI iw . it s'h I in rim ski ii populations as well - It is t hiert_' in

hi i',t uk' taca' ot the white patents tlemnonstiatmg against-t_ i. tol h usmn1 - .0 will find it lurking in the hat_'kg n mud asRussians and ( 't Indst_' meet at the negotIating table itt workmat what is tstitibl a houndai s. dispute. And it flares into

gemi during tribal disputes in KenaIt ikt list . it_c. have bee it an adaptive t i aim - Pc rlips_ ui

- e nova tend to miepiecate. it still is. e call itchauvinism rather titari self-esteem. ('hem l. . there are positivect ue t:. a'.soci,tled Vv ithi a strong sense of g4ii iLleuitul

.I uy.

us a virtue evcr whiee. dmsiovalt a!tlioitetl cveivwhere -

I he iti ct ha i mm )ny t grit ups is 't tenet biened ii a0arm'ssim in.ai he displat_e1 - diver ted to external taigeus. %nd it agures'

'am mti is n be List i tied, t hen it I met ps i I the cii ems is not quitebimau It helps evei moi e it time enem can be siiowp to heengag it ig in pi act ucc hat am e SO mm ut ragei musl duff em cut ft m

tue '- mvv it that lit c'. td ii he cued ib lv labeled u'r h uin,m'1 I-cia' Wa' ,r itnie vv hen the mimd,ti U mat 'malt CIUps m'

--I

'It c nh'Ii ii I t','.'. ,m 11 n )t'tt t'mIj'tC L)ut' m lit' 'U U itt-bint',t''.Sm'i itt, . i 'i"

humans was the basis for the survival of the species. But inthe cGtitext of mass populations anti weapons of massdestructiveness, group solidarity and thoi associated tendency'to deny the full, humanness of other peoples pose. seriousthreats to the species. When we speak of "humans" it is

'important that we include not only ourselves and our imn e-diate group but all Iciur billion of those other bipeds, hoy-ever strange their ways.

This is the primary reason for cross..:ultural awareness. Ifwe are to adMit the humanness of those others, then thestrangeness of their ways must become less strange. Must, infact, become believable. Ideally, that means getting inside thehead of those strangers and looking out at the worldthrough their eyes. Then the strange -becomes familiar andtotally believable. As we have seen, that is a difficult trick topull off. But there may he methods that will increase theprobability of success. Further, there are lesser degrees ofcross-cultural awareness than getting inside the head; thesemote modest degrees of awareness are not to be scorned.

Levels of Cross-cultural Awareness

We might discriminate between tour levels of crosscul-tural awareness as follows:

Level Information Mode Interpretation

. awareness of superficialor very visible culturaltraits: stereotypes

tourism, text-books, Nation-al Geographic

.tvolVievable,144.citerc, ''iizt?11,. ,

II.*

awareness of significantand subtle culturaltraits that contrastmarkedly with one'sown

culture con-flict sittua-tions

f

'unbelievable,ice. frustrating,irrational

III. awareness of significantanti subtle culturaltraits that ,ontrastmarkedly with one'sown

intellectualanalysis

believable,cognitively

IV.

4,"

awareness of howanother culture feelsfrom the'etandpointof the insider

culturalimmersionliving theculture

believable be-cause of sub-jective fund-iarity

t

At level I, a person might know that Japanese were exag-gerated in their politeness and gestures of deference. At levelII are those who know, either through direct or secondhandexperience, of cultural traits that significantly (and irritat-ingly) contrast with one's own practices. The French in theirtelations with some Indian tribes and the Peace Corps volun-teers who failed to adjust might be at this levet. So, too,might those who despair over the seeming inability of many'developing countries to control population growth. At levelIII are those who might know, fir example, that the reallydistinctive aspect of the Japanese social hierarchy hasnothing to do with the forms of politeness but rather existsin the keen sense of mutual obligation between superior andinferior. The level ill person accepts this cultural trait intel-lectually; it makA sense to him. 'Peace Corps violunteers

might have had this kind of intellectual understanding beforeactual contact with host cultures. After that contact, sonicof them slipped to level II and some moved to level IV.

According to this scheme, "believability" is achieved onlyat levels III and IV. And I have argued that b,clievabiiity isnecessary if one group of humans is to accept othet mem-bers of the biological species as human. I have also notedthe rigors of the climb to level IV. This seems to leave levelIII as the practical goal. But-is lev I III enough?

My position is that level III is i deed more attainable thanlevel IV, end it if a ,reasonably worthy goal. But not quiteenough. We should try to attain at least some aspects of levelIV awareness. We can, There are new methods to be ex-plored. And there is a more general reason for encourage-ment. The evolutionary experience that seemed to freeze usinto 'a small-group psychology, anxious and suspicious' ofthose who were not "us," also made us the most adaptivecreature alive. That flexibilit/y, the power to make vastpsychic shifts, is very' much with ns. One. of its manifesta-tions is the modern capacity for empathy,

Beyond Empathy

Daniel Lerner in The Passing of Traditional Societywrites:

'Empathy . . . is the capacity to see oneself in theother fellow's situation. This is an indispensable skill'for people moving out of traditional settings: Ability toempathize may make all the difference, for example,when the newly mobile persons are villagers who grewup knowing all the extant individuals, roles and rela-tionships in their environment. Outside his village ortribe, each must meet new individuals, recognize newroles, and learn new relationships involving hvitself....

. . . high empathic capacity is the predominant per-sonal style only in modern society, which is distinctive,: rtly industrial, urban, literate andparticipant. Traditional-society is nonparticipant it deploys people byship into communities isolated from each other andfrom a center .. .

Whereas the isolate communities of traditionalsociety functioned well on the basis of a highly con-strictive personality, the interdependent sectors ofmodern society require widespread participation, Thisin turn requires an expansive and adaptive self-system,

,ready to incorporate new roles and to identify personalA'alues with public issues, This is why modernization ofany society has involved the great characterologicaltransformation we call psychic mobility . . . In mod-em society more individuals exhibit higher empathiccapacity than in any previous society.*

It' Lerner is correct, modern populations have a dramatic-ally .different outlook, a dramatically different readiness forchange, than traditional populations. That difference musthave been learned and by millions of people. If the latentcapacity tor empathy can he learned or activated, then itmay not he too much to work toward a psychic conditionthat teaches a step beyond empathy. Magoroh,Maruyama, ananthmpolgistphilosopher, describes that next step as trans-spetion.

*' Dania Lerner, The Passing of' 11(rditihnal ,S*,)eiety (Free Press,1958), pp. 50, S I. I/

11

1 'it

Transspection is an effort to put oneself in the head. . . of another person. One tries to believe what theother person believes, and assume what the other per-son assumes.. . . Transspection differs from analytical"understanding." Transspectiin differs also from"empathy." Empathy is a projection of feelings be-tween two persons with one epistemology. Transspec-

Thon is a trans-epistemological process which tries tolearn a' foreign belief, a foreign assumption, a foreignperspective, f lings in a foreign context, and conse-quences of s ch feelings in a foreign context. In trans-spection a erson temporarily believes whatever theother perso believes. It is an understanding by prac-tice.*

Empathy, then, means the capacity to imagine oneself inanother role within the c text of one's own culture. Trans-spection means the capac. y to i gine oneself in a role with-in the context of a for ign - culture. Putting Lerner andMaruyama together we might chart the psychic developmentof humanity as follows:

Traditional peoples

Modern peoples

unable to imagine a viewpointother than that associated with

xed roles in the context of alocal culture

able to imagine and learn a vari-ety of roles in the context of anational culture

Postmodern peoples able to imagine the viewpointof roles M foreign cultures

Magoroh Maruyama, "Toward a Cultural Futurology," CulturalFuturology Symposium, 1970 American Anthropological Associa-tion national meeting, published by Training Center for Commu-nity Programs, University of Minnesota.

Or, we might show the sequence of development in amore graphic way, as involving a movement froth the con-strictions of focal perspectives through the expanded psycho-logical flexibility necessary for role leaning in large, hetero-geneous national societies, to the advanced versatility of"global psyches" that travel comfortably beyond the con-fines of the home culture. (The gray zone is home culture.)

The modern personality type did not develop because itwas planned. It emerged in the context of changing socialconditions. The postmodern personality type, similarly, isnot likely to be produced by educational strategies. But ifthere is a broad social movement, an essentially unplannedintensification of human interaction on the world stage, theneducators and other interested parties can y th'ett. minorbut nonetheless useful roles in the unfolding ama. For edu-cators; that will mean providing students with maximum ex-perience in transspection. And maximum experience meansmore than time. It means a climate in which transspection isfacilitated and expected and in which the expectations arereinforced. Under such circumstances the schools might pro-'duce a slightly higher proportion of persons with the kind ofpsychic mobility displayed by D, the Peace Corps workerwho could feel with others. That would be a gain.

If more and more individuals reach the vantage point oflevel IV awareness there will be another kind of gain. Dispell-ing the stray geness of the foreign and admitting the human-ness of all human creatures is vitally important. But lookingat ourselves from outside our own culture is a possibility forthose who can also see through the eyes of the foreignerand that has significance for the perspective consciousnessdiscussed ealjier. Native social analysts can probe the deeplayers of their own culture but the outside eye has a specialsharpness; if the native for even a moment can achieve thevision of the foreigner he will be rewarded with a degree ofself-knowledge not otherwise obtainable.

globalperspective

transspection capacity

natio Alpew alive

high impolitic nape 'nay

'. localperspective

Imo empathic,capacity

traditional

modern

postmodern

12I

el

DIMENSION 4

Knowledge of Global Dynamics

some modest comprehension of key traits and mechanisms of the worldsystem, with emphasis on theories and concepts that may increase intelligentconsciousness of global change

-How does the world work? It is a vast, whirring machinespinning ponderously around a small 'yellow sun'? Is there alever we can push to avert famine in South Asia. or one tha'twill cure world inflation, or erne to slow the growth of worldpopulation'?,ls it our ignorance of which levers to move thatresults in tragedy a crisis? Is it our ignorance of how thegears intermesh tha causes breakdowns in the stability of thesystem?

Or is the ma me useful as a metaphor? Is it perhapsbetter to think f the world as an organism, evolving steadilyinresponse to the programing in its germ plasm? Are warsand famines merely minor episodes in the biological historyof a planet serenely following a script alre y written?- The latter view is not a comfortable one for people in

industrial societies, raised tocbelieve that al ost anything canbe engineered, including the destiny of the world. But themachine image doesn't quite work, either, although we con-tinue (as I have done) to speak of "mechanisms." The idea ofa machine suggestg an assembly of parts that interconnect ina very positive fashion, so positive that when you manipulateone part you get immediate, predictable, and quantifiable

rYesp'onse in other parts. That does not seem to des:bribe theworld as we know it.

But both machines and organisms are systems of intercon-nected elements and it is the idea of sy..tem that now pre-vails. How does the world work? As a system. What does thatmean? It means we must put aside simple notions of causeand effect. Things interact, in complex and surprising ways:"Effects" loop back \and become "causes" which have "ef-fects" which loop back . . . . It means that simple eventsramify unbelievably.,

The World asa System

The World as a system, is it well understood? Are theinteractions, however complex, charted and analyzed? Notyet. I3ut the dynamics of the world systerq- are under inten-sive imfestigation, frequently in the contekt of-policy plan-ning by governments and corporations. These ask their advi-sors. "What will happen if we make decision A as opposed todecision B?" Th.-re are a number of strategies for answering

13

O

that kind of question, but the world conceived as a sysign isintrinsic to all of them. This kind of exprience and otherstudies have generated a small body of knowledge about im-portant factors in the world system and about the dynamicstic the system how the elements interact. Many aspects ofthat knowledge are very technical and beyond general under-standing, but certain concepts and principles are reasonablyaccessible. Some like the concept of feedback are al-ready making their way into the domain of popular. know-ledge. Other ideas, with a bit of effort and ingenuity, can beput within the reach of non-specialists.

These ideas will hav considerable value as constituents ofa globalperspective, pri arily because they replace simplisticexplanations and expect tions with more sophisticated, ex-planations and expectati . For example, the simplistic ex-planation of high birth rate n some of the less developedcountries is lack of education an lack of technology. Peopledon't know how to control repro tion and they lack themeans to do,so,. The solution, then, is t dd information andbirth control devi . The systems view, by contrast, is thatthere are more f ctors. operating in the situation than oneinitially imag1hes. And you'd better find them and figure outhow they connect to the other factors. That assumption ofhidden complexity alters radically the interpretation of glob-al phenomena. It reduces the likelihood of contempt forthose peasants who, strangely, do not seize the opportunityto limit family size. And it improves the long-range possibili-ties for real control of the situation. lc

The systems view in itFelf, however, does not guaranteethat hidden or subtle factors will automatically he revealed.For thqt we must turn to a variety of independpnt inquirieswhich have-lattempted to isolate and measure/ such factors.Many !of these studies have been part of the general move,menKtn recent years to understand and facilitate economicdevelppmen.t. Why have some countries leapt ahead of othersin economic productivity?Why is there resistance to technicalinn9vatiori in some situations, acceptance in others? Themote conventional answers to these questions have been in-creasingly challenged ,14/ explanations that involve factors ofculture and psyctrlrOgy, such as patterns of motivation andcognition. Perhaps these newer explanations deserve no

special standing, but they do direct the attention to factorsthat ar' ih,t ordinarily considered.

This is worth noting. Because it is also true of systemsthinking. The results of thinking in systems terms often of-fend what we like to call common sense. Similarly, the newerexplanations ask us to believe things about ourselves andothers that tall outside the ordinary repertoire. We must

,--'learn not only to accept the intricacies of system interactionsbuy the influence of cultural expectations.. and cognitivestates that we do no usually sepse. The implication is fithis:jmuch of what shoul be learned about global dynamics' willnot be learned in informal arkinonformal settings, i.e. themedia's view of how the wor Avorks cannot he counted onto incorporate our best kno ledge of how the world works..So we must use the schools t transmit that knowledge. This

Principles of Change

As stated., these are dry bones. So let's put some flesh onthem, beginning with tile question of how students mightlearn some basic principles of change. One of the most im-portant and illuminating principles is that

things ramify

Suppose there is a pond. in the pond and around it liveseveral hundred species of animals and plants. One day a newspecies is introduced to the pond habitat. What will happen?The innocent view is that you have simply added something.You had several hundred species; now you have one more.By contrast, the educated view is that the introduction of a

is appropriate because the knowledge is technical, and it is., new species to the pond system may bring profound changes.necessary because the knowledge often runs against the grain The population of some species may dwindle, others ex -.of common belief and thus requires special justification;The plode; s )me may perish altogether. The new species mayclassroom, with all its limitations, is a reasonably good envi.,),,have uch Teets because it disturbs complex relationshipsronment for mastering the technical and legitimating the new had acl ieved some degree of equilibrium. The new ele-.and strange.

The School and Globai Dynalefts

But let's begin to talk in more colicly might the schools teach aimswer proposedselection being, Does the particular learning contribute to anunderstanding of global change? Because the control ofchange is the central problem of out era. There are changeswe desire and seem unable t(). attain.- And there are changeswe wish to constrain and, as yet, cannot. There is also an-other kind of change in spite of our difficulties we aregrowing in our capacities.to detect and manipulate change. A

hal perspective that fails to compreled both the prob-lems of change and the promise of improved control will nothe worthy of the name.

Three categories of learning about change suggest them-

terms. Whz+e-ra4.;t-obal dynamics? The alit

selective, with the criterion" it

I. Basic Principles of Change in Social Systems

the ramifications of new elements in social1 systemsunanticipated consequencesovert and covert functions of elementsfeedback, positive and negative

II. GtOwth as a Form of Change

4sired growth in the form'of economic devel-opmentesired growth. in the form of exponential

increase in population, resource depletion,etc.

III. Global Planning

national interests and glt)bat planMagattempts to model the world system as related

to national policy formulation

14

meat sends shock waves through the entire system becausethe habitants of .the pond envirotioent are hound up withone another; wherever and however the new element entersthe life of the pond, the -effects will ramify through thesystcin.

. Social systems operate in equivalent ways. Consider thecase of the Papago Indians of Southern Arizona. Around theturn of the century Indian agents began to provide the Pap-ago with farm wagons .Until that time, the primary means oftransporting goods had been the horse, used as a pack animal.

Papagos had their own meths is of packing. Theymade saddles of two cylindrical bundles of whe'at stilwor grass tied together with leather thongs and slung sothat one rested on each side of the horse's hack. Goodsto he transported were put in panniers, made of fiberor rawhide nets, which were slung over the strawpacksaddles

The Indians customarily changed their residencewith the season. During the inter months they livedAl

in the mountains, where ther were permanent suppliesof water in the form qf springs. In the summer theymoved down into the valOys to plan and harvest cropsof corn, beans, and w,*t. The inter and summervillages were from 6 or 8 to . -r 20 miles apart.

Trading expeditions were frequently organized bythe Papagos for the purpose of obtaining seeds to plant.

. . Buckskin, grass rope, large baskets, and potteryollas were the usual trade goods. Papago traders some-times went as far `as 250 miles on such expeditipnsreaching Bisbee, Arizona. and Hermosillo, Sonora....

Papago villages were small, 'rarely consisting of morethan a hundred people, rid were organized as land -using, political units, lay g claim to some permanentwater supply in the moo tains and to an area of arablefields in the valley. Um Ily a charm, a large dirt-banked reservoir, held the mestic water supply for afield village during the summer months....

Hardly any surplus was produced in the desert vil-lages, and there was no full-time specialization of labor.All the men, including even the curing and diagnosingshamans, worked in/the fields. They took care of the,horses and managls!ditlieir packing, and most men could"engage in the simple crafts of leather and woodwork-ing. Women, besides cooking and 'performing other

household duties. were part-time specialists in pottery-making and basketry. The older hays and girls gatheredwood from round about the village, armload by arm-load, and also carried the water inq ollas from thecharms or springs to the houses.*

Then came the won, vhich was welcomed by the Pa)-ago even as it began to transform their lives. The wagon was athing of iron-and wood. Keeping it in repair required iron-working, so a new skill and a new role for males- devel-

oped, that of :lacksmith. On the other hand, the skills ofmaking panniers and pack saddles fell into neglect since tack-ing goods on individual horses was no longer necessary,

The wagon made it possible to haul watucfrom the reser-voirs to the households in large metal barrels, which grad-ually replaced the clay ollas. The female craft of making ollasbecame much less important and the women devoted less timeto it.

The wagon was also a c mvenient means of hauling fire-wood. The men began to cut wood in large quantities, replac-ing the random gathering of women and children. Some of thewood was sold in nearby tomihs and this stimulated interestin the possibility of se(ling surplus corn and wheat to towns-

'people, Thus the Papa hegar to move more actively intothe ,cash economy of the area, Although contawith localtowns increased, trading contact with .Mexicans decreased interms of numbers of Papago males involved..One or two men

on the wagon could make the trading expedition in place ofthe much larger number of men and horses previously re-qtrired.

And the wag lildan effect on- community- solidarity.

Accep nee of the wagon as a resource of the wholevillage under joint management was surely nut a part ofthe expectation of the Indian agent. He probablythought in terms of individual ownership. What hap-pened was an adjustmrint to fife existing social organi-zation and property,c0cepts of the Papagos. The vil-,lage headman brouglithe wagon into the4ulture as aunique resource. like the land, the use of which musthe shared, This sharing led to the new group activity ofroad-building, in accordance with the same pattern asland improvements.-'r

Things ramify. A new element is, in trodnologies.'". disappear or decline, The sexual division of labor changes.

New skills are learned, Old patterns of contact with outsiderserode, new patterns emerge. Community activities find a newfocus. The effects of a lowly farm wagon on packhorse

culture.The Papagos and their wagon seem remote from us,siow.

And not, perhaps, -very important. But cases like this docu-ment the natural behavior of social systems in useful ways:From such cases students can, learn not only that new ele-ments have the power to alter whole systems but that thereare inevitably unanticipated consequences. The Papagoswanted the wagon. They, had practical tasks deafly in mind.And it served many of their intentions. But it seems unlikelythat they intended the destruction of certain traditionalcrafts, or a new division of labor, or increased partiefrifivin the region's cash economy. If they-Dad wished for any tit

* Edward H. Spicer, ed.. Human Problems in Technological Change(John Wiley & Sons, 1967), pp, 25, 27.

t Ibid.. p. 31.

these effects, it seems just as improbable that the wagonwould have been chosen as the instrument for bringing themabout. And yet, it was the instrument.

Partly because our understanding of complex social sys-,terns is limited, surprise continues to be the rule. CarrollPursell, a historian who specializes in American technology,puts it this way: there are always more effects than intended.To a considerable extent we have traditionally tended toblind ourselves to this fact. We have dismissed those unin-tended consequences as "side effects," as if they cre of minorimportance. But the "side effects" are often the6ost impor-tant effects. In recent years the ecology movement has per-formed a major job of consciousness raising in this regard.There are now laws and regulations that require organizationsto anticipate and assess the environmental consequences oftheir activities. A new level of consciousness is thus rein-forced by government fiat. There are no equivalent pressuresto examine oth kinds ofimpact, but sensitivity is growing.What the s iety is learning is that

r there are no "side effects" burthere are surprise effects

What this rulesaysis that when you intervene in a socialsystem he prepared for surprising consequences too profoundto be dismissed as "side effects." -",'

The extent to which consequences li,'-a11 he both surprisingand profound is nicely demonstrated by the case of bottle-feeding technology. It. is an article d faith in the developedcountries that "modem" practices are superior to "tradition-al" practices, and that if less developed lands will incorporatemodern practices the lives of their peoples will he improved.The bottle-feeding of infants is a modern practice involvingspecial containers and nipples and commercially marketed"formulas," most of whicll must he mixed with water. Inrecent yeks bottle-feeding has become a symbol of modernsophistication in developing countries, although it is begin-ning to lose its appeal in the countries where it has its origins.

In the United States, the breast has been graduallytransmogrified from its nutfitional role into a cosmetic --and sexual symbol so potent that an American womanmay no longer nurse her baby in public. The trend isbeginning to reverse: over the last decade there hasbeen a grass-roots movement to resume breast-feeding,a back-to-nature reaction against the unwarranted in-trusion of technology into an intimate, aspect of familylife. Ironically, just when American mothers are put-ting babies back to the nipple, women in under-devel-oped countries are imitating in droves the Western fadfor the bottle,*

What .are the consequences of brittle-feeding for the perple of developing lands? Erzonornic loss, for one thing.

Twenty years ago, 95 percent of Chilean mothersbreast-fed their children beyond the first year: by1969, only 6 percent did so, and only 20 percent ofIthe babies were being nursed fin.' as long as twomonths. Potential breast milk production in Chile in1950 was 57,700 tons, of which all but 2900 tons, or 5percent, were realized, By 1970, 78,600 tons (or 84

15

I o

Nicholas Wade, "Bottle- Feeding: Adverse Effects of it Wes rriTeehnology." Science, April 5. 1974, pp, 45-4fi.

1110,1_.

A global perspective appropriate

to the times must include . . .

insight into particular patterns

of change, those most character-istic of the times.

percent) of 93,200 potential tons were unrealized. Themilk of 32,000 Chilean cows would he required toco sensate for that loss,*

B edirig tends to he an urban phenomenon in devel-opin_ .ntries although declines in breast-feeding are alsoreport d in rural areas, Even when calculated only for urbanpopulations the losses are substantial.

An estimated 87 percent of the world's babies areborn in the developing countries, about a quarter ofthem in urban areas. If 20 percern°9 f the-estimated 27.million mothers in urban areas cl.pAiot breast -Feed; theloss in breast -milkls $365 million. If half of the other80 percent do not continue to breast-feed after thefirst- six months, the, total loss reaches,, $780 million.These estimates, however, clearly understate the situa-tion-, losses to developing countries more likely are inthe billions.l.

These figures do not adequately depict the losses in per-,sonal terms. The poor cannotafford to buy muc of anything;they especially cannot afford to buy what they o not need. ApoOr woman persuaded that bottle-feeding is superior tobreast-feeding is simply b'eing robbeii: henceforth she deniesher child the superior nutrition she possesses and allocates,

,-- :.carte resources for the purchase of inferior nutrition.The child is alsoz,being robbed, possibly of life itself. For-

mulas must he mi0t) with water and local water supplies areoften contarninatelSevere diarrhea is much more commonin bottle-fed babies than in those who are breast-fed.

.-

.According to a 1970 studytin San Salvadk three-

quarters of the infants who di rom the end of thefirst through fifth month had bee reast-fed less thanthirty days. if at all: of those who d in the last halfof the first year of .life, slightly ove ralf had beenbreast-fed less thaw a month. . . . -peat s of childrenfrom diarrheal diseases (which are \ usually nutritionrelated) in Recife, where only 22 percent of the chil-dren were breast-fed at least one month, were nearlythrd' times the rate in Kingston. where the correspond-ing figure is 73.percent.** ._\

--t-...

Even when children do not lose their lives they andtheir society may lose a portion of their human potential.

* Alan Berg, The Nutrition Factor (Brookings Institution, 1973), p.90.

+ Ibid., pp. 92.93.

** 'bid_ pp. 94, 95.

Adequate nutrition is crucial to the full development of thebrain and it is especially important in the early'rnonths oflife. As breast-feeding has declined, the average age of chil-dren suffering severe malnutrition has dropped from eighteenmonths to eight months. Malnutrition at that early age oftenleaves permanent handicaps.

There is another consequence. of bottle- feeding. Nursingmother are less likely to become pregnant. In societieswhere breast-feeding is common, births are spaced morewidely. Lactation is a kind of birth control, and bottle feed-ing removes this natural constraint.

Economic loss, infant mortality,.improper brain develop-ment, population growth. Surprising and profound conse-quences of a minor technoiogyintroduced to the developingpeoples of the world. The commercial food companies in-tended only to expand their markets and increase theirprofits. The go nmental agencies with their dry milk feed-ing programs irTended only to improve nutrition. But theconsequences ramified beyond and in some respects contraryto intentions. That has been the common experience of tliosewho seek to ,change even the smallest elements of socialsysterns.

Much of the difficulty in anticipating consequences origi-nates in the failure to discern the complex functions of systemcomponents; Breast-feeding has a very obvious function: toprovide nutrition for the infant. But it has taken much re-search to shoW that there are special factors in that nutritionwhich build the\body's immunity systems and thus guardagainst disease throughout h1 Another hidden function ofbreast-feeding, as mentioned tove, is birth spacins, Thus,there are obvious functions an less obvious, concealed orunknown,. functions. When we remove a component from asystem we Are unplugging not only the obvious connectionsbut often inadvertent tearing loose the concealed wiring ofall those other-function . The best and often th-emost,painful way to learn all he functions of a component is toremove it from the system. That, in effectis what happenedwhen bottle-feeding supplanted breast-feeding in the develop-ing countries. We now know much more about the complexfunctions of breast- feeding.

Sometimes, of course, the concealed wiring is not veryconcealed. People know /bout it, at least *ntuitively. This isone explanation for resistance to change. eople, realize thata seemingly small change will turn their w rld upside down.A classic case of this is described by Elting orison in Man,Machines and Modern Times. At about the turn of the cen-tury the American naval bureaucracy was re isfing the effortsof a young officer to introthice a new kind f gunsight pio-neered by an English admiral. The new gunsi called for anew system of gunnery, called continuous-aim firing, and wasmuch more accurate. Using the old system the Navy hadtired 9500 shots, during the Spanish-American War, and regis-tered 121 hits. But we had won the war, so why change thesystem? Under the new syste by contrast,

... one naval gunnelt-mad ifteen hits in one minute ata target 75 by 25 feet (at a range of 1600 yards): half .

of them hit in a bull's-eye 50 inches square.*

Eventually, the young officer won his case but only after

* Elting E. Morison, Men. Machines and Modern Times (M.I.T. Press,1966), p. 22.

the intervention of President Roosevelt. Why the resistance?Here is how Morison explains it.

The opposition, where it occurs, of the soldier andthe sailor to such change springs from the normal hu-man instinct to protect oneself, and more especially,one's way of life. Military organizations are societiesbuilt around and upon the prevailing weapons systems.Intuitively and quite correctly the military man feelsthat a change. in weapon portends a change in thearrangements of his society. . . . In the days whengunnery was taken lightly, the gunnery officer wastaken lightly. After 1903, he became one of the mostsignificant and powerful members of a ship's company,and this shift of emphasis naturally was shortly reflect-ed in promotion lists.* ,

Morison's hypothesis seems eminently reasonable, i.e. it isquite likely that there are times when people intuitively un-derstand the cQmple 'ty of their social arrangements and thefragility of those ar ements. There are surely other timeswhen such understanding is lacking and people single-ind-edly pursue narrow goals without anticipating any effect-

't cept the uhievement of those goals. Ih trying to understandchange and resistance to change both possibilities must bekept in mind. But perhdps the most useful adjunct to ourunderstanding is the rule that reminds us metaphorically ofthe multiple and often hidden functions of elements in a'system: iip

look for the concealed tiring

Suspect, in other words, that the obvio function of the,element is not its only function; track d n those otherfunctions. The obvious functiop of a naval gunsight is to aimaPgun. The hidden fun5iori'of that naval gunsightt was toserve as the technological base of a social hierarchy. Proof?Change the gunsight and watch the hierarchy change.

Let's take stock. Three rules have beenproposed:

things ramify

them are no "side effects" butthere are surprise effects

look for the concealed wiring

Do these ,..ontribute to an understanding of c,hange insocial systems? In a small way, perhaps. The first two rulesconstitute a prescription for caution and humility. They say,"Watch out, consequences can be unexpected and pro-found." ,The third rule helps to explain the reasons for thattaution and humility the connections that tie the systemtoather are comple4,and to some extent hidden from view.

Technological Innovation and Change

But we need to know more. global perspectiv appro-priate to the times must include n t only general phnciplesbut insight into particular p rns of change, those mostcharacteristic of the, times. e cases sketched above thePapago and their innocent acceptance of the farm wagon, the

* Ibid., pp. 35-37.

Navy bureaucrats' resistance to the new gunsight, the de-structive effects of bottle-feeding are small episodes in aworldwide movement that has been building for several cen-turies. This movement undergirds what might be called thetechnological innovation pattem of change. There are twoelements in this pattern: the generation of new technologyand the diffusion'of technology from one society to another.Since World War II this has been an especially powerful pat-tern in the world. The reconstruction of war-devastated landsand the emergence of proud but poor new nations calledforth major programs in technical assistance. The economicredevelopment of the industrial countries that "lost" the warenabled fresh starts and engineering breakthroughs; Japan,for example, jumped ahead in steel, shipbuilding, and elec-tronics. The Cold War stimulated high technology develop-ments in nuclear weapons, biochemistry, space capabilities,computers. Educational institutions produced increasingnumbers of scientists and engineers to feed the growing de-mands Of governments and corporations. Billions allocated toR & D (research and development) assured their employ-ment 4),M other billions were allocated over the years to2technic= aid, to transfer advanced technology from the"haves" to the "have-nots."

The rapid pace of technological development and its diffu-sion shapes and Shake§!_our lives. But we hardly notice. Wecannot imagine living under other circumstances. Like ridersin a racing car our senses are dulled by the roar of our pas-sage and we do not feel our speed.

Is it possible to become more aware of this pattern ofworld change continuing revolution in technology thattranscends all ideologies and undermines all traditions? If so,to what purpose?, Will increased awareness bring increasedcontrol? That will depend to some extent on the nature ofthe awareness. The desirability of technological innovationhas not been questioned until very recently. Now there is aquestioning attitude, with respect to environmental conse-quences. But there is only slight attention to other kinds ofeffects. In general, the benefits of technological change con-.tinue too seem concrete and immediate, the risks tenuous anddistant. Confidence in technological solutions remains high,particularly in the developed countries.

Under these circumstances, gains in awareness will requirevery focused effort. I* would suggest three targets. First, v

young people should be sensitized to the global consequencesof technological decisions which seem to be the_legitimateresponsibility of the individual, or corporation, or nation.Stratospheric ozone depletion is a case where individual in-dulgence in a minor convenience and corporate interests inthe sales of that convenience may be leading to a conditionof global peril. There are similar cases livorthy of study.

4Second, students must be encouraged to imagine what has

hitherto been unimaginable the abortion of certain tech:nologies, We need some classroom games and simulations inw1-ich the central task is to decide about pulling the plug.Like, the psychopathic computer in the film "2001," themachines and their advocates will threaten and mutter as theprocess of disconnecting them proceeds. The nuclear energyihdustry, which is a prime candidate for abortion because orthe totally unresolved problem of radioactive wastes, can be

17

2u

Is°

expected to go down fighting. The readiness to contemplateabortion of selected technologies will be facilitated by knowl-edge of alternatives, some themselves technological, someinvolving new institutions and values. The "need" for nuclearenergy-, for example, rests On certain assumptions about theinevitability and sanctity of economic growth, and the avail-ability of alternate energy resources. These assumptions arenot inviolate, we should be willing to entertain alternativeassumptions.

Which brings us to the third and most important aware-ness that our beliefs about the naturalness and the good-ness of technological change are related to our beliefs aboutthe naturalness and goodness of economic growth. The beliefin the desirability of economic growth comes close to being auniversal secular religion. Advanced industrial countries,however wealthy, pray that growth will continue and viewtemporary interruptions as calamities. The less developedcountries pray at the altar, too, hoping to achieve rates ofeconomic growth that will more than match rates of popula-tion growth, Sophisticated technology and continued ad-vances in sophisticated technology are widely viewed as thenecessary instruments of this growth. In advanced economiesthe movement is in the direction of automatic machinery andthe gradual phasing out of tasks requiring human labor andhuman thought. In the developing countries the problem ofproduction is seen in terms of machines that will amplifyhuman labor, chemicals that will increase the fertility of landand suppress insect pests, and transportation that will linkthe hinterland to markets.

It seems unarguable that developing countries should seekand be helped to improve the material conditions of life andParticularly. to eliminate the direst kinds of poverty and suf-fering. Growth that will provide adequate nutrition, healthcare, and shelter is not _to be despised. That means increases

The belief in the desirabilityof economic growth comes

close to being a universal

secular religion.

in agrictrisural productivity at the least, developments intransportation and communication, possibly major efforis todevelop and improve industrial production. But improved liv-ing standards may also come by improvements in the socialarrangements through which people obtain the necessities oflife.

How do you help developing countries grow? The domi-nant Westeritr--rwdel calls for increased use of complex ma-chines and the training of technicians to operate and main-tain til'em. Apply the knowledge of scientific experts. Use thelatest variety of seeds, even though they require irrigationand heavy application of chemical fertilizers and pesticides.

The main thing is to increase production through efficientuse of all the factors that contribute to output toolsore.sources, labor, knowledge.

The Western model of economic growth is strongly orient-ed by the value of efficiency and by the goal of maximumproduction. It does not attend, typically, to the problem ofequitable distribution. The ruling assumption is that if pro-ductivity rises everyone in the society will benefit, at least tosome degree. There is another model of growth, representedby the ideology of Mao's China:

The Maoists' disagreement with the capitalist viewof economic development is profound. . . . Maoistsbelieve that while a principal aim of nations should beto raise the level of material welfare of the population,this should be done only within the context of thedevelopment of human beings, encouraging them torealize fully their manifold creative powers. And itshould be done only on an egalitarian basis that is,on the basis that development is not worth much un-less everyone rises together; no one is to be left behind,either- economically or culturally. Indeed, Maoists be-lieve that rapid economic development is not likely tooccur unless everyone rises together....

While they recognize the role played by educationand health in the production process, their emphasis isheavily placed on the transformation of ideas, the mak-ing of the communist man. . . . The Maoists believethat economic development can best be promoted bybreaking down specialization, by dismantling bureau-cracies, and by undermining the other centralizing anddivisive tendencies that give rise to experts, technicians,authorities and bureaucrats.... Maoists seem perfectlywilling to pursue the goal of transforming man eventhough it is temporarily at the expense of some eco-nomic growth. Indeed, it is clear that Maoists will notaccept economic ,development, however rapid, if it isbased on the capitalist principles of sharp divisionof labor and sharp (meaning unsavory or selfish) prac-tices....

While capitalism, in their view, strives one-sidedlyfor efficiency in prOducing goods, Maoism, while alsoseeking some high degree of efficiency, at the sametime and in numerous ways builds on "the worst":experts are pushed aside in favor of decision-making by"the masses"; new industries are established in ruralareas . . . expertise (and hence work proficiency in anarrow sense) is discouraged; new products are domes-tically produced rather than being imported "more ef-ficiently"; the growth of cities as centers of industrialand cultural life is discouraged....

Of course, Maoists build on "the worst" not becausethey take great delight in lowering economic effi-ciency; rather, their stated aims are to involve everyonein the ,development process, to pursue developmentWithout' leaving a -Single person behind, to achieve avalanced growth rather than a lopsided one. .. .*

The Wegtern model of growth has significant achievementsto its credit, but does not always travel well when applied tothe problems of the less developed countries. It creates newscientific and technical elites in countries which may be fran-

JohiA. Gu ey, "Maoist Economic Development: The New Manin the New 'hina," in CharleSX. Wilber, ed., The Political Econ-omy of Development and Underdevelopment (Random House,1973), pp. 308-310, 312.

18 it

2.1

tic to lay aside a societal structure controlled by elites. Itfosters new dependencies, not the least of which is a depend-ency on fossil fuels. And it is based on an ethic of individualstriving and achievement that often runs counter to the Modeof groups which treasure cooperative social activities andgoals. Most important is the primacy of growth itself theultimate goal is an unceasing expansion in the production ofgoods and services. In the service of that goal technologicalprogress is viewed as an unblemished asset.

The Maoist model subordinates growth to other considera-tidns: equitable distnbution of material benefits, collectiveparticipation. the denial of legitimacy as well as opportunityfor self-striving, localism, and inventiveness by nonexperts.Nonetheless, growth is important there also, and has beenachieved. The Maoist model may travel no better than theWestern model but on the home grounds there seems to havebeen substantial success. China is still "underdeveloped" witha per capita GNP of perhaps $160 but:

The basic, overriding economic fact about China isthat for twenty years she has fed, clothed and housed'everyone, has kept them healthy, and has educatedmost. Millions have not starved; sidewalks and streetshave not been covered with multitudes of sleeping. beg-ging, hungry, and illiterate human beings: millions arenot disease-ridden. To find such deplorable conditions.one does not look to China these days hut, rather, toIndia. Pakistan. and almost anywhere else in the under-developed world.*

China's contrast with other sectors of the less developedworld is striking, but the contrast with the values and strate-gies of the Western industrial world is no less striking. Forthose seeking cross-cultural perspective on groWth and devel-opment Mao's China offers a superb curriculum.

Let me stop for a moment to revieiv. The dimension un-der discussion is that of global dynamics. with an emphasis

on principles, patterns, and mechanisms of change. A fewcautionary principles of systems change were illustrated.Then I argued that an understanding of global changerequired not only the guidance of principles but awareness ofcertain dominant patterns of change in the real world. Onesuch major pattern was technological innovation. I suggestedthat consciousness of that pattern required, among otherthings, a recognition of the link between ideas about tech-nology and ideas about growth. The almost universal com-mitment to growth was noted, as was the existence of amajor society China now practicing a form of develop-ment in which growth, while important, is subordinated toother values.

What I have not yet said, at least directly, is that growthitself is perhaps the most significant change in the contempo-rary world. It manifests itself in the form of increases in theabsolute numbers of human beings, in the size of politicalunits, in the produCtivity of goods and services, in the inten-sity of interactions among human groups. These forms ofgrowth depend on other forms of growth increases in theconsumption of resources, in the extension and grip of politi-cal authority, in the organizational management of peopleand things. And they spawn yet another form of growth

increases in the waste products of human activity, thermalpollution of the atmosphere, chemical pollution a air, land,and water.

Growth, then, has two faces. There is the smiling face thatpromises improvements in material welfare. And there is atragic face that we have preferred not to see. Some who haverecently, dared to look upon it say that it too holds a prom-ise. The promise that growth in the human population,growth in the consumption of resources, growth in pollution,cannot continue for very much longer. The limits have al-most been reached.

That; diagnosis or warning has been circulating for some

Growth itself is perhaps the

most significant pattern of

change in the contemporary

world.

time. Harrison Brown worried about it in The challenge ofMan's Future in the 1950s. A more dramatic form cameseveral years ago with the publication of The Limits toGrowth. This was the report of a research team at the Massa-

chusetts Institute of Technology sponsored by the Club ofRome. Using a great deal of data, and positing specific quan-titative relationships among factors, the team projected pro-ductivity, population, resource, and pollution figures into thenext century. The graphs spewed out by the computer wereshocking. Several important mineral resources were k:ni the

verge of exhaustion: in practical terms, for example. zinc andtin ore might he unavailable within twenty years, and petro-leum would last only another half century. There were othersupply problems. Arable land is a finite resource. At presentrates of productivity. agriculture can support perhaps eightbillion people. The world could have that many people short-ly after the turn of the century. Inerease.productivity?.0.K.But if population growth rates continue, that only delays theday of reckoning for a few decades. By the middle of the21st century the human race would have banged its head

against a hard and final wall no further increases in foodpossible from agriculture as we know it.

Limits scared people and they sought reassurance. It wasavailable, abundant, and free. But events and new studies'tend to bear out some of the grim forecasts of the Limitsanalysis. A very recent study by Mesarovic and Pestel* looksat the future of the world system region by region. Variousscenarios, testing the effects of different policies, wereplayed out on the computer. The results for one region --South Asia were especially tragic unless population growthcould be quickly halted and unless the region could be given

massive help in industrializing its regional economy.'Sia:e

* Mihajlo Messarovic and Eduard Pestel, Mankind at the Turning

* Ibid., p. 315. Point (E. P. Dutton & Co., Inc./Reader's Digest Press. 1974).

19

2

these two conditions are not likely to be met, the tragicscenario will probably be played out with real actors.

I have suggested that a global perspective should includesome understanding of change, and that growth may be thedominant form of change in the contemporary world. Thatsounds academic and not particularly important. What theLimits and Mesarovic-Pestel studies assert, however, is that

=0.4, growth is of critical importance. The central message of thesestudies is awesome. It goes something like this: Before verylong the world system is going to break down. That doesn'tinecn- tural catastrophe but it does mean that the system willsuffer some terrible shocks, The reason for the impendingbreakdown is that population, resource Consumption, andpollution are grbwing exponentially. Since the world popula-tion is already large,' since many nonrenewable resources arealmost used up, since the environment's capacity to absorbpollutants is already strained, such growth cannot he con-sidered benign. Exponential growth is treacherously rapidand will bring us to the earth's finite limits and thus to acondition of severe stress within a few generations.

Schools and the Issue of Growth

This is an iftrportant message. it may not be entirely ac-curate inits analysis, but as a wrning of probable danger itdeserves wide dissemination. By all agencies, including theschools. The young as well as the rest of us need to beapprised of the situation.

My impression at the moment is that issues'of growth arenot commonly found in the schools' curricula. ThisOs nottoo surprising. There needs to be a context, a persistent, con-text. Not just the occasional spasm of interest in this prob-lem and that. And there needs to be some consensus in influ-ential quarters that growth can be thought about, ques-tioned, planned. In other words, this is an issue open torational thought and thus a proper subject, for inquiry inthose of our institutions that teach and subscribe to reason.The problem of a context wilt be solved if teaching for aglobal perspective begins to play a larger 'part in the orienta-tion of curricula and 'there are other possible contexts ifthat does not occur. The prOblem of legitimacy is, I think, onthe way to being solved by-events-and by the convergence ofseveral broadly based social movements. The environmentaland countercultural movements of the late sixties and earlyseventies hammered away at the values that undergird thecult of growth. Energy politics in the last few years hasshaken the serenity of true believers previously untouched bythe protest movements. The movements forced people tolook at subtle costs of growth hitherto ignored. The rise inthe price of oil forced even the hardiest capitalist to thinktwice about the conventional costs. So awareness has to someextent already been raised, doubts have been uttered, and itno longer requires bravado or ideological intemperance 'tothink about growth. The underlying commitment of the soci-ety (ours and most others) to growth will doubtless continue,perhaps even be reinforced by the shock of apostasy, butagnostics are not in any danger of becoming outcasts.

But can the schools manage the issues? At the outset Isuggested the need for modest expectations, for "attain-ability." Assuming that it is increasingly respectable to dis-cuss the problematic aspects of growth in precollege class-

rooms, is it in(ellectuallyipractical to do so? The answer, I'mafraid, is a rather .stkoared affirmative. Affirmative becausethe impqrtant forms orgrowth in the world today, and themechanisms which feed them, are not too difficult to un-derstand. Subdued because the issues are intricate.

Exponential increase is the crucial aspect of growth thatmust be grasped.Positive feedback (when dominant overnegative feedback) is the mechanism that energizes it. Feed-back simply refers to a situation in which the "effect" ofsonle event loops back and influences the next event. Imag-ine a city whosestreets are clogged with automobile com-muters., An expressway is constructed to handle the traffic.The availability of the new expressway encourages moreautomobile commuting, which has the effect of clogging theexpressway. So more expressways mu.it be built, which inturn will soon be clogged.

cloggedstreets

more autotraffic

newexpressway,

In effect, the more tiaffic the more highways and themore highways the more tralqic. In population, the morepeople the more births and-the more births the more people.That's, positive feedback. If automobile commuters wererational, the long delays on the crowded expressways, theincreased rate of accidents, and the hours of breathing ex-haust fumes might prompt the search for alternative trans-portation. Clogged streets might lead to mass transit and lessauto traffic. That's negative feedback. Sometimes positive /'and negative feedback are in rough balance. When they are'

'not, when positive feedback is stronger than negative fed-back, high rates of exponential growth can result .lb the'caSeof world population, birth rates have remained high in manyregions while death rates (negative feedback) have declined,producing a net growth of 2% each year. That's 2% of a.growing population so each year the world adds more peoplethan it added the year b e. Thus exponential growth: aconstant rate of grow pplied to a growing amount.

Year PopulationNumber Added(at 2% growth)

1975 4000 million1976 4080 80 million1977 4161.6 " 81.61978 4244.8 " 83.2 "1979 4329.7 " 84.9

1980 4416.3 " 36.6 "

If the world added 80 million people each year that wouldbe linear growth; if you graph it you end up with a straightline. But the world is not adding the same number of people

20

each year; it is adding the same percentage (in this case ":re)

of a growing total. Graph that and you end up with a steep-ening curve, the signature of dramatic and possibly cata-strophic growth.

The dynamics of feedback and the characteristics of expo-nential growth are not beyond the reach of young students.Once grasped, they set the stage for at least a beginningcomprehension of issues related to growth. The basic issue,and the most profoundly heretical, resides in the simple ques-

tion "Is growth desirable:Ahat question can be applied tohundreds of specific instances, from plans to increase theagricultural productivity of South Asia to the housing poli-cies of local communities in the U.S. It is not; of course, asimple question at all. Not too long ago it was. The answerwas always "Of course!" Should community X permit realestate developers to build thousands of new houses on the

edges of the city each year? Of course! Why? Well, partlybecause some people still live in substandard housing. butmostly because a lot of people who live reasonably well wantto live even better. But what if the additional housing over-loads the water and waste-disposal systems? That could be aproblem, but we have.to think about the local economy, too.If we don't keep building, a lot of carpenters, roofers, elec-

tricians, and other craftsmen won't have work and thatmeans they won't be able to buy the things and services thatkeep the rest of us at work, and you know where that leads.

2

So even it' continued mowth brings problems we don't dare

stop, do we? Now you're \getting it!

Questioning the desirab4Ity, growth forces all kinds ofsubterranean assumptions to the surface. That can be unset-tling.-- like picking one's way through a philosophical mine-field. Those bumps on the ground are value choices younever thought about before. Touch one and if moveyour equanimity for some time to comer

Is it realistic to imagine that precollege students can safelyand usefully trod such difficult terrain? Usefully, yes, in aminor sort of way. Simulations can give students practice inthe emergent arts and techniques of growth assessment.*Such simulations, of course, offer the merest shadow ofactual experience, but they anticipate and legitimate a worldwhere growth is increasingly subject to critical evaluation andless and less the outcome of cultural momentum. Safely? Ifthat means without stress, no. We are in the process of tran-siting from one psychic Order to another psychic order. Weare beginning to see things that we never saw before, to knowthings that we 'never knew before, to doubt things'that wenever doubted before. It isn't comfortable. We are changingand it hurts.

71

* See: "Simulating National Policy Choices." Intercom No. 77 (Win-ter 1974/75). Center for War/Peace Studies.. pp. 42-48.

rl

DIMENSION 5

Awareness of Human Choices

some awareness of the problems of choice confronting individuals, nations,and the human species as consciousness and knowledge of the global systemexpands

Imagine a land of permanent dusk, a rough terrainthrough which winds a darkly gleaming river. Here and thereacross the landscape and along the river campfires glow.Around each tire a cluster of people, huddled against thedark, preoccupied with its own affairs. From time to time,there are forays into the area away from the light of thecanfPfires and sometimes a brief contact with other groups.Not always a very rewarding contact. Each group has devel-oped distinctive ways of living, ways that seem appropriateand natural to its members. bizarre and threatening to out-siders. But the dark separates and allows each group to cul-tivate its own mysteries and what it sees as its own territory,the area illuminated by the flickering light of its own camp-fire. And in the dark lie downstream group does not knowthat the upstream grt4pabides by the same liver. (Jr eventhat it is a river and not a sea.

But now imagine (hear with me!) that the long night be-gins to end. The campfires which had once been the center ofeach group's existence now seem pale and the whole land-scape is etched by brightness and shadow. The people standamazed and trembling, their previous perceptions and under-standings and myths washed away by the glare. The hills,each of. which in the dark had been experienced singly. arenow seen to be connected. forming a chain. Each group alongthe river sees for the first time that other groupshesame flowing waters. There are patterns to .i.(r/r1 valleysand forests and a network of trails, a yellow and dusty On-broidery of meadows vividly green. Outcroppings of ii;ockthat in the dark had seemed mysterious and ominous \,treshorn of their personalities and reduced to the ordinary .--ANother peoples that in the dark had seemed illysterious andsometimes ominous now look only awkward and a bit un-sure.

This is fantasy but it as also a fair qegiction of thesitup in which human species now finds'ilsell. Floodedby nevi4nowledge of how social and physical systems workand interact on the global stage, sensing trends and patterns.never sensed before, newly able to see into the distance oftime and imagine the future consequences of present aoions.In the glare of new understandings, the old centers of our

-

existence grow pale and old habits lose their authority. So westand awkward and unsure, troubled by the need to resolvestrange new questions, lacking confidence that the ethicalprinciples of the past apply.

Pre-global to Global: A Transition

Throughout this paper I have talked of changes in aware-ness. Awareness of our own cultural perspective, awarenessof how other peoples view the world, awareness of globaldynamic's and patterns of change. In this final section I wishto emphasize that such heightened awareness, desirable as itis, brings with it problems 4,4 choice. As an instance, in a-pre-awareness" stage the undoubted benefits of pesticides inagriculture, forestry, and the control of diseases such asmalaria provide clear jugification for prolific application.

But then information about thti dangers of pesticides be-gins to accumulate. DDT is found in the tissues of organismsfar removed from the points of appliziit-ton. Some species arethreatened with extinction. Risks not only to present humanpopulations but to future generations are identified. In somecountries the use of certain pesticides is halted altogether. Achange of awareness has occurred and new behaviors haveresulted. In sonic parts of the world.

Where is the problem of choice'? It lies in the tact thatpesticides like DDT are still in use. Widely. Hundreds of mil-lions of people depend on DDT to control malaria and agri-cultural pests. Ask someone in the developed countries ifDDT is still in use and he will likely say no, answering in',n.ms of his own country's practices. But use the questionon a world basis and the answer is yes. Viewed as a collec-tivity, the human species continues to use DDT.

This continued use constitutes a de facto human choice.In a conflict between the rights of living populations to con-trol obvious and immediate threats to health and the rightsof other living and future populations to freedom from sub-tle and long-term threats to health and subsistence, the for-mer wins out. The immediate and the obvious triumph overthe long-term and subtle. But although the choice seems tohave been made the problem of choice remains. There is anew cognition in the world. We now know that there are

0,-t

long-term and subtle risks. Once we did nut. We now admitthat other peoples ond future generations have rights. Once_we did not. That new 'knowledge has not had the power tohalt the use of DDT where life and health are under severethreat. but it has had the effect of blocking its use in manyother parts of the world, To put it. simply, there are now twopossible hehavi, it; with respect to DDT:

it it will solve a problem. use it

it it will solve a problem, don't use it

The second of these hehaviorsniriginattn; in the new cogni-tion. the new awlarent>s.,at,f4S and rights.

The DDT situati4 is simply' an instance, a small manifes-tation of the ma .)r cognitive revolution ;that is now under-way. But 14 is a representative one. Many practices onceessentially automatic, whose benefits were assumed. are nowquestioned. They are questioned because we know newthings. We ':now how to measure minute quantities. Weknow that factors interconnect in complex ways. We knowthat there are limits It the resources and carrying capacity ofthe planet. In the context of the new cognition, action doesnut pioceed automatically. Calculations of advantage and dis-advantage become explicit and detailed. Choosing a course ofbehavior becomes a more reasoned process. That shiftfrom the automatic to the calculated is a very importantexpression of the cognitive revolution we are now experienc-ing.

Let me expand on the concept of cognitive revolution.particularly as represented in the writings of the economistRobert Solo. Soh) developed the concept of "cognitive revo-lution" in his ho6k Economic Organizations and SocialSystems. In that hook he analyzed and compared stages ofeconomic development in terms of what people could ques-tion and think about.

Those values, conceptions, relationships, and tOrmsof functional organization which, for a society. are setbeyond the pale of critical evaluation or reasonedchange are called here traditional. Those that ale con-sidered open to critical evaluation and are systematic-ally challenged and changed will be termed rational__For every society there is a zone of the rational and azone of the traditional. What is contained in the zoneof the rational vis a vis the zone of the traditional is offundamental importance in determining the capacity ofa society for economic development.

most Americans consider any machine or mech-anism. any technique or process of production, orany business organization to be properly subject tocritical evaluation, to reasoned study, to purposefulchange. In the light of this rational cognition ofmechanism, of technical process. and of business organ-ization, Ameridans have developed the ways and meansof subjecting these to systematic analysis. evaluationand change. For sonic other societies, and particularlythe "developing" ones, the cognition of mechanism, orprocess, and of business organization fall within thezone of the traditional. They are ... outside the scopeof systematic challenge or change.*

* Robert A. Solt. Ecemmnic Weani:atioas. and StIcial SyStOna(Bohbs-Morrill Co., Inc.. 19(17), p. 376.

Solo goes on tunexamine three stages of historical eco-nomic development in these terms. In the craft economy,individual activities, various technical processes. and the rela-tionships among economic actors all fall within time tradi-tional. The craft economy ". . manages itself, following itsbeaten paths. moving by an ancient clock4ork that has beendriven into the instinc.ts of the individual and into the habitsof the group."

;The shop economy was ushered in by the Industrial Rev:).

lution.

The Industrial Revolution was part of a generalassault on the traditional society by the individual inthe rational pursuit of his self-interest ... each was onhis own, out for himself. free within the scope of hispersonal powers to inquire, to manipulate. to changethe world for the sake of personal advantage . . Eachoperation, and consequently the whole economy, wasdriven by the open-ended desire of the single individual.tor more for himself, more to consume. more to pos-sess, more to display, more as a mark of worth andsuccess. The "craft economy." of artisan and peasantbecame the "shop economy" of the technician-inven-tor and the free-wheeling entrepreneur . The watch-words in the shop economy were not authority butefficiency, not continuity but progress, not status butsuccess . . . The ancient rhythms of the crafts werestop-watched, manipulated, speeded. divided intoparts. analyzed, redesigned. ..

Rationality, however. stopped at the shop door.

All that' went on within 'his factory or shop wassub4litted to the critical inquiry and creative imagina-tion \Pf-the owner-entrepreneur. But what of the inter-action of his ship with all the myriad of others? . . .

These interactions were not brought within the zone ofthe rational. What occurred in the market vortex wasnot subjected to critical analysis or reasoned, deliber-ated change.**

Then came the Organizational Revolution.

Another fundamental change in the scope of the ra-tional cognition: now occurring. In the name of eonmimic planning, or of political direction, or through thedevelopment of autonomous corporations that encom-pass a vast number of complex activities, the rational:cognition is being extended beyond the scope of indi-vidual supervision and of private self-interest. Virtuallyall economic relationships are being opened to inqiiiry.to analysis. and to the possibility of control and s:.-s-tematic change ... this extension of the rational cogni-tion is coining about in many ways and has been ex-pressed in a variety of functional organizations. InRussia and China it is being engineered, from the topdownward with the rationality introduced first in thecontrol of general relationships and in'reference to col-lective goals. In- the United States and Western Europe.emerging out of the __rationality of small entities. it isoccurring in the corollary growth of the large corpora-tion and the extension of political responsibility.

23

Ibid., pp. 377, 378.

J. Ibid., pp. 379, 380.

* Ibid., p. 38i.

Ibid.. pp. 381, 382.

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runderstood,practices d pkilieies that have destructive et -,feet S beyond the national borders ean he followed withortirlecogintion ot the scif destruative implication, Further.since the protection of national interests is an Qxpansiveenough concept to include suicidal displays or pride anddetermination. the scale of destruction visited on others can.he awesome. Frit the fast 25 years it has lvvienRussia and the U.S. to contemplate seriously the use ofweapons that would devastate not just the two countries butthe planet. for generations to come. That kind of non.ehalance about eftects on others epitomnics the pre - globalcognition.

Global Awdreness and Human Problems

The emergent global eognition contrasts sharply with thepre-global. Lone-'orm aons.equences begin to he considered.Linkages between events are seen in the more complex lightof systems theory. Social goals ands values are made explicitand vulnerable challenge. And nations begin to note thattheir Interests.and activities are not separable tiom the inter-ests and activities of others. Finther, systematic attention isgiven to problems that transcend the national. regional. of

tonal. Human problems.A global cognition has certainly not been achieved. Pre.

global forms of knowing continue to orient muali cif humanbehavior. But the transition is UuderiA,.*, driven by the con-vergent energies kir a Variet3, or social movements. If theessence cii the transition is the shut from the unquestionedfor the consciously considered, then science must be seen,asthe most potent of these movements. Demanding. exposurtiof assumptions. active and systematic collection of eviden.:e,and a fluid read mess to alter conclusions in the light kif newdata, the ethic and procedures of science pose a profound Lind-lengc to oilier modes or knowng. The challenge is world-wide. Scientific inquiries have been so manifestly. productivethat sclerosing methods are universally employed. permeatingalmost every aspect of human activity.

Within the main current of the scientific cut. orelaisiaIy associated with it are developme?Its ni ,eahirologythat constitute a movement in their own right. f here are the

and observation Ilhttinnents Thai make it possibleto detect, monitor. count, and analyze. tiny quantities ofchemical -, patterns pit niii,:ro-;:hange on the earth's orrface,tiler irrimagnetie radiatii in. microscopic stiactures. These aremore than devrfes for generating the data that leads to put,iutowiedge. They are tools for monitoring the a:aro-realm:in:esof human actir in. Whether a satellite sensor detectinr, an tiltspilt or a gas ahromatograph measuring the partsTaiof imr m animal tissue. such instruments extend the iminannervous sy stem and thus the probability of human actionhirsad on rational calculations of effect.

Other technologier, and institutions are contributing to theemergence oi a gbilial cognition. The ct impute: plays an nn.Portant role in Work' dentoriaPine and economic studies andn the sy!,tents engineering movement. the latter. winch hadits early appheations in military and corporateat planning, usesthe computer to work rapidly. through the thousands tit equa-or ins that posit how and with what qziantnative ti'qce variousfactors in the worlO system relate to one another. System,

engineering and its models of how the world works can Ile,challenged on many grounds, not the least of which is thaeltsforecasts may he just plain wrong. But accuracy at thispoint is less important than intention and effort. Studies likeThe Limits to Growth represent an altogether new level ofconcern with long-term effects, complex 'linkages of factors,and the worldwide consequences of local decisions andactions. Computer technology clearly facilitates this particu-lar approach and the consequent healthy shticks to conven-tional wisdom inherent in its "counterintuitive" results.

I don't wish to exaggerate the influence of science andtechnology on the development of to global cognition. Otherforces are at work, even a few aimed directly at the target.But the unaimed, the inadvertent, are perhaps the more im-portant. This would certainly include anything tending toenrich the vision of nation-states as they pursue their "inter-ests.". Even the much maligned multinationals might con-tribute to such an enriched vision. Corporate managers withfar-flung interests may take a longer, more complex viewsome instances than political leaders. Their pvirrsperitives arenot channeled by popular attitudes; their interests are notserved by the success of any one nation. The multinationalsas organizations are creators and beneficiaries and necessarilyguardians of what is' fashionably called interdependence.

The Mild:11'4 of that term interdependence testifiesin itself to the reality of the movement towaid a global cog-nition. I have beer-etroubled at times by the facile use of theterm, believing than ,41. was a technical concept and meant tobe used with tealmitil precision. If interdependence meantinnitual dependence did that extend to asymmetrical relation -snips'' For example, what about trade between tfie eco.rionneally weak and the economically strong, where in onesimse each needed the other but posse#e.d decidedly unequalbargaining powers? Or what about the'imutual dependence ofantagonists. e.g.. military establishments? Externa/ threatsare the primary !umlauts of military organilationS; with ahigh enough level of threat they grow and careers flourish.They depend for those threats not on their friends but ontheir enemies. Surely that is a kind of interdependence.

All of the complaining was nonsense on my .part It took awhile but it finally hit me. Interdependence was not a tech-nical term at all. It was a code word. Social movements needtheir code words and of course they use them a 110 erndely.But the core message was there. The word was a distilledargument. a challenge to the conceit ot autonomous powerand privilege, a call for recognition of cvniner.rions and conse-quences dial vulnerabilities dial the old Cognition did notadmit. And, like other code words, it was a badge of identity:To speak of interdependence was to belong to those whoRnew how the world really works.

Let us consider. Proposition one: we 'are in a rood oftransition, moving from a pre-global to a global cognition.Proposition two: global cognition is characterized by newknowledge of system interactions. by new knowledge oflong-range and wide-range effects, and by a more ;einiscionsuse of such knowledge in planning human action. Proposition Ithree: as such knowledge and its rational use expands. humanchoices expand. Proposition tour an awareness of this ex-panded range ,tit choice constitutes an import alt dimensionof a global perspective.

Awareness and Alternative Choices

Concretely, what might such awareness involve? It mightinvolve knowing of proposed alternatives to continuedeconomic growth, as in the so-called steady state world orequilibrium society. It might involve knowing af,alternativesto national policies of humanitatian aid and technical assis-tanee. as in proposals for concerte, efforts by the developednations to build not only the agricultural and industrial capac-ities of developing regions but a more coordinated globaleconomy in which emergency needs for food aid would hemuch reduced and in which.necessaly food imports could hepaid for by regionally specialized industrial exports. Or, insonie contrast to the high technology on which the latterproposals depend, it might entail knowing of the small-scale,self-sufficient food and energy systems being devised by JohnTodd and the New Alchemists group at Woods Hole* or spmeexposure to E.F. Schumacher's ideas about "intermediatetechnology. "t It might consist merely in recognizing that theenergy deficit used to justify development of such dangeroustechnologies as the fast breeder reactor is the product of aparticularly gluttonous way of life, and that changing ourhabits may he a reasonable alternative to risking our habitat.

World Hunger: A Case Study of Alternative Choices

As a way of exploring in more detail what an increasedawareness of choices might mean, consider the problem ofhunger and malnutrition in some areas of the developingworld. Prevailing practices call for donations of food to meetemergency situations and technical assistance to increaselocal productivity. both allocated- largely at the discretion ofindividual governments. Motives tend to he mixed. politicalaims ckarly interwoven with humanitarianism. The West seesfragile economies as susceptible' to infection trom the leftand seeks to strengthen their resistance. The collectivistcountries use aid to build-political debt and opportunity.looking toward eventual restructuring of the total society.The competitors. however, share this: they meet their owncultural/ideological expectations and serve their ow. politicalinterests through the actions they undertake. The primacy ofthose expectations and interests is never in doubt.

The prevailing practices, at least at current levels. are notdoing the job. The secretary-general of the UN's Food andAgriculture Organization noted in a recent speech that thegoal of self-sufficiency -in food within a decade could not bemet and that "the most urgent need . . . in the immediateyears ahead will he for a radicals. increase in food aid on aguaranteed basis."'" The 1974 World Food Conference sugrested that the deVeloping countries work toward an annualincrease of agricultural production of 3.6 percent, a rate ofincrease that, unlike the current 1.6 percent. would outrunpopulation growth. In his appraisal the FAO official said,"To speak frankly, it is clzi_at that such a transformation can-not he brought about within the next ten years."

° Nicholas Wade. "New Alchemy Institute: Search fur an Alterna-Ow Agriculture." Science. February 24.1975. pp. 727-729.

. Sthumacher, Sinai/ ic Beautiful (Harper Row, 1973'1.

" 1,)ri, Tunc.c. June 26.1975.

Conventional Answer

The conventional assessment of the situation, then, goessomething like this. Hundreds of millions of people lack ade-quate food. They should be helped. Help consists of directfood transfer, technical assistance, and investment. Such helphas averted immediate calamities. there have been break-throughs in agricultural-productivity, but there are no guar-antees of long-term assistance, and-investment commitmentsare insufficient. Furthermore, the recipients seem unable toachieve some of the changes in their societies, e.g. land re-form and income redistribution, which might facilitate eco-nomic development and gradually eliminate the need for out-side assistance. So the problem of hunger in the world re-mains unsolved.

One conventional answer (at least in the West ) to thestubbornness of the problem is to increase the level of assis-.tance.- This is essentially what the FAO official was prop9S-ing. More direct food aid, more technical assistance, moreinvestment in agricultural production by both the developingand the develplYed countries. (Population control has been astandard component of the conventional answer but this hasbecome an increasingly delicate subject. with much suspicionof Western motives.)

Increases in assistance are not everywhere accepted as theanswer. but some level of aid is assumed. A June 1975 itemin the New York Times noted that "the European Common.Market governments refused early today to 1 crease theircontributions of grain to needy countries."* Deb: e centersnot on whether there should be aid but on I much, ofwhat type, where allocated, for what reasons, and with whatprobable results. These are questions discussed by nationaland regional policymakers. and the answers reflect nationaland regional priorities and concerns.

The discussion, of course, is highly technical and thesketch I have given does not do justice to the vtriety of ideasor the sophistication of analyses that play a part in decisions.There have been decades of concentrated attention to prob-lems of economic development, thousands ;If studies andprojects and progt anis. On the basis of this work by thespecialists. however, broad policies are developed and the

)lic acquires a rough sense of what the alternatives are. Itis my impression that until quite recently the public concep-tion of alternative policies for dealing with world hungerreduced the question to "How much aid should my countrycontribute?" There arc two 'assumptions in that question.The first is that aid should he given. The second is thatdecisions about aid are properly national or regional as inthe case of the Common Market.)

Challenges to Traditional Approaches

Consider. now, some ideas that challenge or bend the ,eassumptions and the traditional approaches to aid. The big-gest public splash has been made by the,roposal to applythe criteria of triage to decisions about aid, and by GarrettHardin's "lifeboat ethics." Triage is a battlefield surgery con-cept that focuses assistance on those whoi need help and canbe helped. Those who cannot be,s.aved tin(' those who willsurvive without aid receive no attention. Hardin's lifeboat

20

0

0 New York Tinter, June 26.1975.

analogue simply proposes that pulling the drowning into alifeboat already- filled and ready to swamp dooms all: thesurvival of some requires letting others go under.

These are public shockers and have been widely de-nounced as morally reprehensible. Triage says don't assumethat every desperate situation can he salvaged: allocate yourresources on the basis of deliberate judgments about who canreally he helped. Deny the self-gratifications of charity mind-lessly diffused and substitute the more sober rewards thatcome from concrete improvements in selected situations.Hardin's message is somewhat different. lie raises the possi-bility that the giving of aid can he dangerous: don't risk thewhole human species in order to save part of it. Triage sayshe effective. Hardin says he careful. Both deny the easy satis-factions of the humanitarian impulse and both ignore politi-cal criteria.

A message in a similar vein conies from Jay Forrester ofMIT. Forrester's work is in computer models of systems andin recent years he iras turned his attention from engineeringsystems to social systems. His studies have led to the follow-ing view of humanitarian efforts:

Humanitarian concern means help for one's less for-tunate fellowman. At times such help is based on amuch too simplistic view of the situation. It is usuallyaimed at immediate goals. Long-term and short-termgoals may he in conflict. When does help in the presentlead to increased distress in the future?

Consider an overpopulated country. Its standard ofliving is low, food is insufficient, health is poor, andmisery abounds. Such a country is especially vulnerableto any natural adversity. ... Droughts bring starvation:but is that due to weather or to the overpopulationthat made sufficient food stocks impossible? Thecountry is operating in the overextended mode whereall adversities are resolved by a rise in the death rate.

. But suppose that humanitarian impulses lead tomassive relief efforts from the outside for each naturaldisaster. What is the long-term result? The peopb! whoare saved raise the population still higher. With morepopulation the vulnerability of the country is in-

creased. . . . Disasters occur oftener and relief is re-quited more frequently. But relief 'leads to a net in-crease in the population, to more people in crisis. to astill greater need tOr relief, and eventually ro a situa-tion that even relief cannot handle.*

In many ways this is not a new argument but in Forrest-er's case it derives from and is holstered by a relatively newprocedure of forecasting the computer modeling ofsystems. In a rather famous paper, "The CounterintuitiveBehavior of Social Systems-, Forrester details the advantagesof this approach:

It is my basic theme that the human mind is notadapted to interpreting how social systems behave. Oursocial systems belong to the class called multiple-loopnonlinear feedback systems. In the long history ofhuman evolution it has not been necessary for man tounderstand these systems until very recent historicaltimes. Evolutionary processes have not given us the

Jay W. Forrester. -Churches at the Transition Between Growthand World Equilibrium,- in Dennis L. Meadows and Donella H.Meadows, eds.. Thwarri Global Equilibrium: Cullcted Papers(Wright-Allen Press. Inc., 1973), pp. 351. 352.

mental skill needed to interpret properly the dynamicbehavior of the systems of which we have now becomea part....

Until recently, there has been no way to estimatethe behavior of social systems except by contempla-tion, discussion, argument, and guesswork. . . It isnow possible to 'construct realistic models of socialsystems in the laboratory. Such models are simplifica-tions of the actual social system but can be far morecomprehensive than the mental models that we other-wise use as the basis for debating governmental ac-tion....

T11 mental model is fuzzy. It is incomplete. Fur-within one individual a mental model

chang ss with time and even during the flow of a singleconvirsation. . . . Fundamental assumptions differ butare never brought into the open. Goals are differentand ire left unstated. . . . it is not surprising that con-sensus leads to laws and programs that fail in theirobjectives or produce new difficulties greater thanthose that have been relieved.

For these reasons we stress the importance of beingexplicit about assumptions and interrelating them in acomputer model. . . . But the most important differ-ence between the properly conceived computer modeland the mental model is in the ability to determine thedynamic consequences when the assumptions withinthe model interact with one another. The human mindis not adapted to sensing correctly the consequences ofa mental model. . . The inability of the human mindto use its own mental models is clearly shown when acomputer model is constructed to reproduce theassumptions held by a Single Then it usual-ly happens that the system that has been describeddoes not act the way the pertin anticipated.*

Forrester would argue, then, that solutions to the worldfood problem should be determined lzk fashioning a veryexplicit model of how the world system works (what affectswhat ), adding pertinent data, and then letting the computertest the consequences of alternative policies. This, in fact, hasbeen done. Mesarovic and Pestel, in their study Mankind atthe hinting Point, tested hundreds of scenarios for SouthAsia, a region particularly susceptible to food shortages.Their standard scenario qscumed that "the historical patternof development based on a somewhat optimistic view of thepast and present situation will continue."

We. . . assume that an equilibrium fertility level willhe attained in about fifty years. We also assume, quiteoptimistically, that the average use of fertilizer per hec-tare in the entire regiort will surpass the present NorthAmerican level toward the end Of the fifty-year period:At that time South Asia alone will consume more fer-tilizer than the whole world consumed in 1960.Assuming that the fertilizer is used on every piece ofland under cultivation. the yield per hectare will -in-crease by about 1000 kilograms approximately theincrease that the Green Revolution brought to the bestlands in India and Pakistan. Still proceeding optimisti-cally, we assume that all remaining arable land in SouthAsia is quickly brought under cultivation. and that alltechnological inputs. such as irrigation systems (whichmust accompany the fertilizer to produce high-yielding

* Jay W. Forrester, -Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems.-Technology Review. January 1971.

grain), will be available as needed. Finally, we haveassumed that no mass starvation takes place. The dif-ference between the .food needs of the region and thefood production in the region. . . is assumed to havebeen made available by other regions.

Our computer analysis, pregnant with optimism,shows dearly that the food crisis in South Asia willworsen. In spite of all the advancements assumed, theavailability of fertilizer and land assumed, the proteindeficit will continuously increase: by the year 2025 itwill he up to 50 million tons annually. Such de kits'could never be closed by imports: to pay forquantity of imports, South Asia would have to spendone third of its total economic output. and three times,what it earns frdm exports. But even if South Asia hadthat kind of money, the physical problems of handlingthose quantities of food would be incredible. In oneyear the region would then have to import 500 milliontons of grain twice as much as the total tonnage ofall goods now being shipped overseas from the UnitedStates. ... Moreover, these quantities would have to be

every year, in ever increasing amounts, with-out end. In sum, it would be impossible.*

What Mesarovic and Pestel really expect for South Asia istragedy. Since the demands of the 'standard scenario cannotbe met, the problems will be resolved by natural means amuch increased death rate. The only way to avert thetragedy, they say, lies in policies tested in another scenario.These policies include a population control plan that looks tofertility equilibrium in 15 years, a concerted effort by thedeveloped world to build the agricultural and industrial capac-ities of the region. and the creation of a coordinated worldeconomic order.

In the fifth scenario, investment aid is provided toSouth Asia in sufficient amount and at the time neededto close the food-supply gap and the export-importimbalance. The magnitude of such a program will re-quire a concerted effort by the entire DevelopedWorld. The export potential of South Asia would heincreased substantially, and the world economic systemwould have to be modified so that South Asia couldpay from exports for most of its food imports. Theseexports would have to be industrial, since the regionalfood demands Obviously will absorb the local agricul-tural output. But to make this scenario feasible, theDeveloped World must help South Asia to deli, lp itsown exportable and competitive industrial spe.tion.

Scenario five the only way to avert unprecedent-ed disaster in South Asia requires the emergence of anew global economic order. Industrial diversificationwill have to be worldwide and carefully planned withspecial regard for regional specificity. The mast effec-tive use of labor and capital, and the availability ofresources, will have to be assessed on a global, long-term basis. Such a system cannot be left to the Mercyof narrow national interests, but must rely on long-range world economic arrangements.t

Note the prime condition for saving South Asia. Not theerratic provision of aid at the discretion of individual nationsbut a massive, concerted program in the context of a coor-dinatz.d world economy.

* Mesarovic and Pestel. op. cit., pp. 121. 122.a Ibid., pp. 125, 127.

r.

These four view points ---,triage, lifeboat ethics, Forrest-er's ideas about humanitarian lm, the Mesarovic-Pestel con-clusions represent alternatives to conventional responses tothe hunger problem. And, in some measure, all display thedistinguishing marks of global cognition. All suggest that cus-tomary responses to the needy be set aside and replaced bymore deliberate, more effective measures, even though theseoutrage conventional wisdom or morality or national sensitiv-ities and sovereignties. Simple theories of cause and effect(the problem is a food deficit: the solution is more food) areset aside in favor of more complex theories. Assumptions,criteria, and goals are made much more explicit. And thegoals themselves change, from simple rescue of those in im-mediate distress to consideration of the survival of the spe-cies. Further. the nation as the main actor in policymaking ischallenged in favor of coordinated global planning.

To know of these alternative viewpoints is to expandone's repertoire of choice. To know of them, also, is to be-come aware of problems of choice, dilemmas that do notpresent themselves when the vision is more limited. In spiteof the difficulties raised, however, this increased conscious-ness is surely an important constituent of a global perspec-tive.

Access to such alternatke viewpoints is not especiallydifficult these days but it Is by no means automatic. Effortsmust be made and acme of those efforts can take place in theschools. An operationally defined missioi.-, for educatorsmight be to increase the number of solutions that studentscan propose for a given problem and the quality of the solutions, as measured by criteria of global cognition. That wouldinclude beingzensitive to the likely consequences of differentpolicies and particularly to the differences between short-term and long-term consequences. After instruction, a stu-dent would be able to advance more solutions, includingsome that rest on nonlinear theories of social dynamics andthat incorporate a concern for peoples and generations otherthan those that seem to be involved.

Such an increase in awareness is, I think, a fairly modestgoal. I am not proposing that students choose. among alterna-tives only that they know of them. This in itself is a mildlyrevolutionary step. It means becoming more conscious,potentially less bound to custom and convention. Is suchawareness enough? ,Enough for what? We are talking here ofa global pers ctive, from which other things may flow. Let'ssay, simply that such an increase in awareness is a solid andnecessary ase from which to proceed.

* * *

I have discussed five dimensions off global perspective.Are there more? I am tempte to be aggislAnd say no, thisis it, the final crystalline i. But of course there are more,as many more as anyone ares to invent. And that, of course,is precisely the case. Such dimensions are inventions, con-structs of the mind. This particular set is just one assemblage,a collage of ideas selected and shaped by one individual'sproclivities aad prejudices. This is not to say that there arenot real changes underway in human consciousness. I amconvinced that there are and that they are in the direction ofsomething that can be called a global perspective. But anyparticular description of that phenomenon is properly sus-pect. Even this one which is, by coincidence, my favorite.

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