division in dairyland

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Acknowledgements....iiiList of Tables..iv

List of Figures..vAbstract...vi

Chapter

1 Theoretical framework for understanding newsframes during the Wisconsin gubernatorial recall...1

Literature review..........5Hypotheses and research questions....31

2 Methods..35

3 Results....47Hypotheses and research question outcomes.66

4 Discussion..67Conclusion.80

References......83

Appendix

A Map of Wisconsin counties and county seats........89B Map of Wisconsin recall election outcomes......90C Coding Instrument.....91D Codebook...........94E Inventory of sample newspapers and number of articles collected...98F Inventory of coded articles by type..100


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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I would like to thank my advisor, Professor Doug McLeod, for all of his guidance

throughout this project. I would also like to thank to Professor Al Gunther and Professor

Sue Robinson for serving as my committee members, as well as Courtney Hoffmann,

who was invaluable during the coding process. Finally, I want to give a special thank you

to Matthew Barnidge for offering advice and moral support every step of the way.

Without him, I would probably still be lost on a county highway somewhere near

Manitowoc, searching for the public library.


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LIST OF TABLES

1: Descriptive statistics for independent variables.40

2:Correlation matrix between pluralism indicators...42

3: Overview of article frames........45

4: Overview of article characteristics....46

5: Frequencies and percent of sample for each article subject,endorsement, slant and type...50

6: Correlations between article type and averages of frame per county....51

7: Correlations between article subject and averages of frames per county......52

8: Correlations between article endorsement and averages of frames per county.53

9: Correlations between article slant and averages of frames per county......53

10: Correlations between article tone and averages of frames per county....54

11: Multivariate linear regression results for county-level frame averages...57

12: Multivariate logistic regression results for article-level frame presences...59

13: Linear regression results for indicators related to article subject ...61

14: Linear regression results for indicators related to article endorsement...61

15: Linear regression results for indicators related to article slant....60

16: Linear regression results for indicators related to article type.....62

17: Multivariate regression results for recall outcome......64

18: Simple regression results for pluralism indicators on voting outcome65


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ABSTRACT

This project examines coverage of the 2012 Wisconsin gubernatorial recall

election in 72 state newspapers. A content analysis was performed to look for

relationships between various community characteristics, coverage frames and article

characteristics. Specifically, frames related to conflict, economics, social discord,

political process and political policy were examined, as were characteristics including

article type, tone, subject, slant and endorsement. These relationships were interpreted via

theories related to structural pluralism and were connected to concepts from geographic-

and class-based social identity literatures. Ultimately, this project found indicators in

news coverage for community tendencies related to conflict avoidance and tolerance.

Broadly, less pluralistic communities were more preoccupied with the social impact and

divisiveness of the recall election than were more pluralistic communities.


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CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

A week before the 2012 Wisconsin gubernatorial recall election, a woman in

Portage, Wisconsin, watched as her Recall Walker sign was stolen from her yard. She

wrote to her local paper about the incident, commenting: I wondered why the person

didnt just ask if they could have the sign for their yardI would have gladly given it to

them (Kutzke, 2012). Such a lighthearted response, however, belied the underlying

tension developing between neighbors not only in Portage that spring but also in

communities across Wisconsin during the run-up to the historic and deeply contentious

gubernatorial recall election.

The recall election made national news, and pundits on both sides of the partisan

aisle described the Wisconsin story as having political significance well beyond the

dairy state (Robinson, Knisely & Schwartz, 2012). For example, some media treated the

recall election as a bellwether for how the battleground state would vote in the looming

presidential electiona prediction that ultimately did not hold up. However, there are

other ways in which the Wisconsin case is useful for broader political discourse. The case

involved various dimensions of tension, including rural-versus-urban dwellers,

government workers-versus-private sector workers, haves versus have-nots, as well

as more predictable frames, such as liberal-versus-conservative or Republican-versus-

Democrat.

Its clear that some of these conflicts were more dominant than others in different

communities, and the fundamental question of this project is whether the frames used in

particular communities were related to the demographic, structural and geographic


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features of those communities. This study asks whether it is possible to tease out which

community characteristics were most likely to predict these frames and whether frames

were related to voting outcomes. If so, such work could serve to highlight how even

subtle variations among communities within a single state can ultimately impact political

outcomes.

Before considering these questions, however, its worth reviewing the context in

which the Wisconsin recall took place.In February 2011, Governor Scott Walker

introduced Act 10, which was intended to close a budget deficit by cutting pensions and

other benefits for public workers, as well as curtail the collective bargaining powers of

public employee unions. The bills introduction and Republican attempts for a hasty

passage sparked a significant public backlash that included a steady stream of protests at

the state Capitol. The protests escalated through February and into March, and various

national political and cultural figures came to Madison to show support for union

workers, including filmmaker Michael Moore and the Rev. Jesse Jackson.

As the protests continued, the political atmosphere in Wisconsin became

increasingly polarized. Fourteen Democratic state senators fled the state for more than 20

days in an attempt to prevent the quorum necessary for a vote. Act 10, also known the

budget repair bill or the collective bargaining bill, was passed on March 10, but the

passage of the bill did not bring the opposition to an end. When the 14 senators returned

to Madison on March 12, the protests swelled to more than 100,000 people.

The political fall-out, as well as the protests, continued for months. Nine state

senators, including six Republicans and three Democrats, faced recall elections that

summer, and the re-election campaign of a conservative-leaning state Supreme Court


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justice became uncharacteristically contentious. The ultimate legacy of the Wisconsin

protests, though, was the spurring of a recall initiative against Walker. More than

900,000 signatures were collected to trigger the recall process. Former Milwaukee Mayor

Tom Barrett won a difficult Democratic primary May 7, 2012, to run against Walker in

the general recall, which was held June 5, 2012. Barrett previously ran for governor

against Walker in 2010, so the recall election essentially became a rematch.

The historic nature of the recall election was a frequent topic of coverage

throughout the process. Nationally, only two state governors have ever been recalled, and

no attempt to recall a governor had ever been made previously in Wisconsin. Ultimately,

Walker became the first U.S. governor to survive a recall election, winning 53% to

Barretts 46%. Almost 60% of Wisconsin voters participated in the recall election, which

was the highest turnout ever in the state for a gubernatorial election not tied to a

presidential ballot. News media characterized the result of the election in various ways,

attributing Walkers win to a lackluster performance by Barrett after a damaging primary,

a public validation of Walkers policies, or a process vote where citizens voted against

the recall elections rather than for Walker.

Newspapers across the state covered the sharp partisan tone throughout the protest

season and recall election. Stories of political sign vandalism were not uncommon, and

public debate in the form of letters to the editor, newspaper comment forums and social

media erupted. Walker was booed at public events unrelated to the campaign. Public

school teachers were called communists or whiners in public forums (Robinson, Knisely

& Schwartz, 2012).


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While the contentiousness of the recall in general is not in doubt, different

communities talked about the election in different ways and appeared to vary in terms of

conflict avoidance and tolerance. Certain coverage frames appeared to have more

salience than others in particular contexts, and this project will investigate those

differences, as well as explore ways to predict which Wisconsin communities relied on

which discourse frames during the recall election. Understanding relationships between

various community features and local media coverage frames could help partially explain

how community residents were persuaded to vote for one candidate or another and

whether residents developed a broad community consensus around a particular candidate

or not. Why, for example were certain places in Wisconsin, such as Columbia County

and Eau Claire County, so split in terms of recall election results? Why were other

counties, such as Dane, Menominee or Waukesha, so decisive or one-sided in their

results? This project will look for clues to help start answering these questions.


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LITERATURE REVIEW

Overview

Before considering how public opinion was expressed during the recall election,

its necessary to step back and consider how various individual identities can affect

political ideology and how those individual identities can aggregate into collective

identities with predictable political behaviors. A useful body of literature for beginning to

understand how structural elements translate to human perceptions and behaviors comes

from social identity theorists. The specific social identities relevant for this case study are

geographic- and economic-based identities. Place is political, and where one lives can

strongly shape ones ideology and worldviewand this is especially the case in rural

contexts. Some place-based identities, however, cannot be separated from their economic

contexts. Income, occupation and lifestyle are all various dimensions for classifying

class-based identities, and the media can often help to reinforce those identities in various

ways. Both geographic- and class-based identities can to some extent predict individual

voting behaviors and help rationalize voting decisions that at first glance may not make

sense to outsiders.

From there, the discussion of geographic- and economic-based identities can scale

up to the community level. Structural pluralism theories can help explain how various

communities respond to conflict, and certain structural patterns can predict whether a

community will avoid or tolerate conflict. The contextual effects literature intersects well

with structural pluralism to explain how elements of personal identity can translate to

voting behaviors at the neighborhood or community level.


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Local newspapers offer a unique lens into how various social identities came into

play in communities across Wisconsin during the recall. A particularly valuable element

of these newspapers is the letters to the editor section. While newspaper editors and

community members sometimes ridicule letters to the editor, researchers have found that

letters can provide a meaningful glimpse into community public opinion. A theoretical

justification exists for continuing to evaluate printed local newspapersand specifically

letters to the editoreven in an era of media consolidation and digitization. Finally,

framing literature provides a scaffold for analyzing local newspaper coverage, and frames

developed for this case study are well rooted in previous work.

Social identities and political ideology: Geography, class and occupation

Social identity is the part of an individuals identity that is provided via

membership in one or more groups and is influenced by the norms of that group (Huddy,

2001; Monroe et al., 2000; Turner et al., 1983). Essentially, social identity theory and

self-categorization theory, the offshoot of social identity theory, consider group affiliation

as a source of and reinforcing force for individual identity (Karasawa, 1991; Monroe et

al., 2000). Social identity theorists tend to focus on the motivations for people to

differentiate groups and have found that an individuals self-esteem can be tied to

perceptions of their in-group, whereas self-categorization theory looks more at how

individuals come to identify and act with a group (Huddy, 2001; Monroe et al., 2000).

These theories consider how individuals identify with other in-group members

and simultaneously do not identify with or even discriminate against out-group

members. Experiments have found that individuals will favor their in-group over an out-


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group under the most minimal constraints (Perreault & Bourhis, 1999; Karasawa, 1991;

Turner et al., 1984). Interestingly for this study, political scientists have found that

identification with particular social groups is related to political thought and behaviors

(Wash, Jennings & Stoker 2004; Campbell et al., 1960).

While we must acknowledge that people can and do find the most minimal basis

for division, in politics some characteristics typically arise that are more important than

others (Oliver, 2001, p. 84). One of those characteristics is the geography of ones

community, which contributes not only to the physical borders of that community but

also to the borders of its residential social in-group. For example, a New Yorker lives

in New York, not Dallas. Community features, such as population size, income, political

voting history, occupations and other variables, come together to form particular

geographic identities, which can then become political ones. In order to begin

constructing a sense what makes up these political places and why they behave in certain

ways, its worth considering how broader geographic-based identities, such as rural or

suburban identities, can intersect with other identity elements, such as socioeconomic

status and occupation.

Geographic-based social identities and political ideology

According to Gotham, Like race, class, and gender, places can become important

mechanisms through which collective identity is defined and expressed (1999, p. 333).

For example, scholars interested in rural culture have found that many rural residents

have developed an identity based in part on their geographic residence and distance from

broader power institutions. Poor, rural white residents who vote for conservative


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candidates sometimes are doing so in consistency with a worldview that favors hard

work, individuality and limited government in general. This identity is sometimes termed

redneck culture (Jarosz & Lawson, 2002), and while such an identity can have negative

connotations, especially for younger rural residents (Vanderbeck & Dunkley, 2003),

rural-based self-identity also can become a guiding perspective for political decisions

(Cramer Walsh, 2012).

While conducting various case studies of political talk in Wisconsin communities,

Cramer Walsh developed the term rural consciousness for this awareness of ones

literal place in the political world. She identified various ideas associated with this

consciousness, including a consistent lack of trust in the government, as well as feelings

of political alienation, including a lack of support or attention from the broader political

system in general (Cramer Walsh, 2012). Throughout her fieldwork, Cramer Walsh

consistently heard rural residents construct their identity in juxtaposition to urban

dwellers:

It was common for the people I studied to refer to state government with theshorthand Madison. And it was very common for people in rural areas to boldlystate outright disdain of this city, the state capital (Cramer Walsh, 2011, p. 151).

Similarly, Gimpel and Karnes found that red versus blue election maps are

really displaying urban/rural divides within states: Although on their own, the nation's

tiniest burgs do not amount to much, collectively they do cast enough votes to anchor the

Electoral College to the Republican candidate in many states (Gimpel & Karnes, 2006,

p. 467). Gelman and his colleagues are consistent with this, arguing that geography

definitely matters politically. Though red state/blue state divisions are easy media


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heuristics, most states are more geographically divided than they seem thanks to the

persistence of real, significant regional differences (Gelman et al., 2007, p. 365).

One of these differences is the perception of equity in terms of government

spending. Though per capita, rural residents receive an equivalent share of government

dollars, in general a perception persists among rural residents that resource distribution is

skewed toward urban areas (Cramer Walsh, 2012; Gelman et al., 2007). Whether rural

residents receive their fair share or not, the ideology that they are on their own is

important. Though rural counties generally have lower median incomes and higher rates

of poverty and unemployment than in neighboring counties with higher populations,

many rural residents relate to the self-image of independent entrepreneur and property

owner, either by nature of agricultural employment or the legacy of home ownership in

rural areas (Gimpel & Karnes, 2006, p. 471). The rednecks interviewed in Jarosz and

Lawsons ethnography of white rural poverty identified themselves as honest,

hardworking and resilient, among other traits (2002), which again reinforce an

individualistic, I-earn-my-own-way mentality.

In contrast, the rural residents Cramer Walsh interviewed prior to the 2011

Wisconsin protestswhich triggered the recall electioncomplained that state

employees received exorbitant health care and pension benefits, despite not having to

work very hard. However, this rural sense of individualism was not limited to blue-

collar workers in Cramer Walshs interviews. She found that professionals in rural areas

still felt more marginalized within the broader state and federal government system than

did comparable professionals in suburban communities close to urban areas (Cramer

Walsh, 2011).


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In one sense, rural residents have much in common with their counterparts in

more affluent suburban communities. Similarly to rural contexts, suburban communities

are often isolated, with a racially and politically homogenous population (Oliver, 2001).

The difference is that in suburban contexts, such economic isolation is consciously

chosen by highly mobile individuals from the middle to upper-middle socioeconomic

classes. Though smaller communities typically foster stronger individual feelings of

political efficacy than do larger cities in general (Oliver, 2001, p. 65), suburbs are a

unique form of small community.

In particular, the economic homogeneity of suburban residents reduces overall

political conflict within these communities and also re-shapes the type of conflict that

persists. One of the effects of the process of segmenting suburbs from the larger urban

area via new municipal boundaries has been a transformation of conflict, and issues

that previously caused conflict among residents within a community are now conflicts

between local governments (Oliver, 2001, p. 5). Suburban and central city residents often

find themselves pitted against one another, as suburban residents are more likely to be

regional resource power holders and dont identify with inner city residents and their

needs (Logan & Molotch, 2007; Dreier, Mollenkopf & Swanstrom, 2001). Suburban

residents find themselves competing not with each other but with other communities in

order to protect things like municipal services and property values, which can foster an

ideology based on conscious isolationism, which is distinct from pragmatic rural

individualism.

Urban communities are highly complex, and this is where geographic-based

identities become perhaps less relevant than other social identities. Diverse groups live in


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urban areas, making it difficult to speculate about a common political ideology based

solely on ones status as a resident of a particular metropolis. This is a good opportunity

to shift the discussion to socioeconomic status-based identities, which often tie-in closely

with geographic-based identities to help form distinctive local worldviews.

Class-based social identities and political ideology

Much literature related to geographic and economic identities reference both

concepts in conjunction with each other. For example, Gelman and his colleagues

discussed geographic identity in the context of a book about relationships between

income and voting patterns (Gelman et al., 2007). Though Cramer Walsh ultimately

argued that geographic-based identities trump socioeconomic ones, class identities are

most certainly an undercurrent in her work as well. Class identity may not directly impact

voting behaviors (Manza, Hout & Brooks, 1995), but it can help individuals develop a

sense of their personal roles as democratic citizens (Walsh, Jennings & Stoker, 2004).

In general, the idea that class can, at the very least, gradually affect political

attitudes and behaviors over time by way of helping individuals establish opinions about

government dates back decades in political science (Eulau, 1956). LeMasters classic

ethnography of a Wisconsin tavern offers qualitative insights into the relationship

between class identity and political ideologies. The Club Tavern in Middleton,

Wisconsin, publicly claims to have served as the setting for LeMasters work, which

analyzed a community in the midst of shifting from a working-class stronghold to a

suburban refuge for white-collar professionals employed in Madison. Much dialogue

around local events took the form of us-versus-them in reference to the blue-collar


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residents who at times found themselves at odds with middle- and upper-class residents

over various community issues. LeMasters noted his surprise at the depth and extent of

the suspicion and distrust (1975, p. 199) demonstrated by the tavern patrons toward

white-collar workers overall.

Especially relevant for this study were the conversations LeMasters recorded

about tavern patrons views toward the University of Wisconsin-Madison campus

(referred to as the campus in nearby Metropolis) during the massive anti-Vietnam War

protests. Though the tavern patrons were, for the most part, personally opposed to the

war, as a group they also were resentful of the student protesters, who they perceived as

subversive and anti-authority in general. LeMasters even found that anti-protest

sentiments caused some patrons to shift to the right during the 1968 presidential election

(1975, p. 181).

While the Vietnam War era was a very different situation from the Wisconsin

gubernatorial recall, some parallels exist in terms of the discourse around the

appropriateness of protesting as a response to a controversial political situation. In

2012, many editorials and letters to the editor focused on whether the recall was

warranted or was simply a demonstration of liberal crybabies who didnt get their way.

Such perceptions are similar to LeMasters historical accounts of blue-collar complaints

about entitled students who failed to recognize their privileges (1975, p. 181).

One fundamental element of the blue-collar worldview that LeMasters identified

is acutely political: pragmatism, which sounds very similar to Cramer Walshs more

recent findings on perceptions related to the government in other Wisconsin

communities. For example:


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Williams, 2001), and politicians are especially cognizant of the importance in connecting

with the middle classeither by identifying themselves as part of the middle class or by

promising actions to benefit this class and look out for its interests (Kendall, 2011;

Gelman et al., 2007). Estimates find that at least half, if not slightly more, of all

Americans from a wide range of income levels self-identify as members of the middle

class (U.S. Department of Congress, 2010; Pew, 2012). Differentiating between working

class and middle class is problematic, as individuals with the same income and

education levels can self-identity as members of different classes (Walsh, Jennings &

Stoker, 2004, p. 472).

Yet as Wong argued, the limits of an imagined community have to be based

on something more tangible than sentiment alone (2010, p. 30). Some sort of attempt at

defining the middle class is necessary in order to discuss how this class designation can

affect political ideology. Income-based class designations are a common method for

delineating working class and middle class, though again, such designations are

problematic. Delineating between middle and working class becomes even more muddled

when lower middle class is inserted between the two strata. Lower-middle-class

identity is sometimes described as an undesirable non-identity (Felski, 2000) whose

members often simply self-identify as middle class. However, this project is not well

served by nitpicking income-based class designations, especially when the 2011 average

median income in Wisconsin was around $52,000almost spot on with the 2011 average

median income in the United States. While some academics classify a middle- class

household income at about $70,000 (Gilbert, 2008), representatives from a White House

middle class task force have stated that an income at around $50,000 is certainly going


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to be considered a middle-class income (Bernstein, 2009).

Many scholars argue that income is far from the only way to differentiate the

middle class. Lifestyle choices are another popular form of demarcating middle-class

members (Gelman et al., 2007). Kendall considers some college education, significant

skills and occupations with loose supervision as markers of a middle-class existence

(Kendall, 2011, p. 170). Consistent with in-group/out-group literature, which finds

evidence for stronger in-group identities when a clear, distinct out-group is present

(Huddy, 2001), some researchers have found that middle-class identities are actually

constructed as an alternative to other class identities, namely the working class (Mantsios,

2003; Kendall, 2011). Media, of course, can come into play in terms of portraying and

reinforcing these distinctions, and this will be discussed later.

The difficulty of defining the middle class extends to the difficulty of identifying

markers of this classs political ideology. One political characteristic of the middle class

that distinguishes its members from the working class is a higher level of political

participation overall (Walsh, Jennings & Stoker, 2004; Eulau, 1956). Beyond this, the

middle class becomes fundamentally political when it is considered as the petty

bourgeoisie situated between the proletariat and the more traditional bourgeoisie (Burris,

1999). By nature of being situated between these two class strata, this class inherently

forms a rough ideological unity characterized by competitive individualism, reformism

and a belief in the neutrality of the state as an arbiter of competing class interests

(Burris, 1999, p. 312). Similarly, if the middle class is conceptualized as the American

class norm, then it seems fair to superimpose general American democratic values onto

that normative class. Some of these broad values include concepts like consent,


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vote Democratic, though perhaps not to a large degree.

Ultimately, though, class identities cannot be superimposed onto subjects, even

when income levels are known. Class identities are subjective and perceptual and the

impact of such identities on political behavior is difficult to tease out. As Gimpel and

Karnes have found, Actual monetary income plays a relatively small role in economic

evaluations compared to self-perceived economic status (2006, p. 469).

Media portrayals of class and certain occupations

Media depictions of various class groups can help reinforce in-group desirability

and out-group undesirability (Mantsios, 2003). Class- and occupation-based identities are

especially salient in the media and political messaging and, again, are often interweaved

with coverage of geographic political variation. For example, red-versus-blue voting

maps often highlight regional variation, and often imply economic-related voting

variation in addition. However, not all classes are covered equally. The media are often

criticized for covering poverty-related issues differently and less frequently than issues

related to upper- and middle-class people (Kendall, 2011, p. 119). Those living in poverty

also are framed as deviant from the middle-class norm, and poor people are often

portrayed in the media according to various stereotypes, such as the welfare queen,

criminal, drug-user or dysfunctional parent/partner, among others (Bullock, Wyche &

Williams, 2001).

The middle class dominates class-related discourse in the media, which is

unsurprising as, again, almost the majority of Americans self-identity as members of the

middle class. Mantsios has found that middle-class Americans are depicted as different


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from working class people in a variety of ways, including manners and values (2003).

Kendall has identified three prevalent media frames related the middle class: middle-class

values are the backbone of the country, middle-class Americans are experiencing a

squeeze, and middle-class Americans are victimized by both the upper and working

class (2011).

One of these backbone middle-class values is hardworking. Occupational

identity was a noteworthy component of the discourse surrounding the Wisconsin

protests and subsequent recall election. Teachers in particular were frequent characters in

coverage of the protests, as their pensions and bargaining rights (along with the pensions

and bargaining rights of all other public sector employees except police officers and

firefighters) were the main targets of Act 10. Throughout 2011 and 2012, teachers were

often discussed in tandem with public sector workers or public union employees.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 13.3% of wage and salary workers in

Wisconsin belonged to any labor union in 2011. Nationally, public sector unions have the

highest union membership rate at 37%, which is more than five times higher than the rate

of private-sector workers who belong to a union. Also, workers in education, training and

libraries had the highest level of occupational union membership. Consistent with these

trends, then, it would be expected that references to teachers, public sector workers and

other union members would be used interchangeably, and it is also likely that if a

Wisconsinite encounters a union member in daily life, that member probably belongs to a

public sector union.

According to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Census data, in

communities where average median incomes are well below the Wisconsin average,


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government employees often make wages that are higher than their neighbors. Couple

this with the tendency for residents in rural communities to adopt an individualistic

ideology that discourages government hand-outs, and its possible that occupational

identities and perceptions of those occupations could make up a significant portion of

conflict discourse during the recall in some newspapers, especially those in rural contexts

or communities with high rates of poverty and unemployment.

Most research about media portrayals of public school teachers addresses film and

fictional television series depictions (Beyerbach, 2005; Raimo, Devlin-Scherer &

Zinicola, 2002). According to Swetnam, teacher portrayals are often stereotypical, such

as the autocrat, jerk or clown teacher. Even positive portrayals are unrealistic and

rely on depictions of heroic, superhuman teachers who serve essentially as social workers

for their students. Some scholars argue such fictional stereotypes could impact public

perceptions of teachers and education systems as a whole, which could translate to

decreased public support (Swetnam, 1992, p. 30). Studies on the impact of teacher

portrayals in news media are sparse, but Cohen found that similarly to fictionalized

representations, professional identity depictions might function as a link between what

happens in the black boxes of schools and wider policy debates about education. Talk

about teachers, therefore, is likely to be especially effective for mobilizing public opinion

about education (Cohen, 2010, p. 106). Cohen found that during the large-scale policy

reforms of No Child Left Behind, one daily Chicago newspaper often associated

schoolsand by extension teacherswith terms like failure and missed the mark

and accountability. Conversely, though, teachers also were associated with terms like

caring, as illustrated through anecdotes and examples of teachers going to


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extraordinary lengths for their students (Cohen, 2010). Such contradictions in media

portrayals of teachers turn them into a blank slate of sorts for public opinion.

Anecdotally, teachers may be beloved, but institutionally, they are a target for blame and

suspicion.

The public reputation of labor unions and union workers also is affected by media

portrayals. Labor unions typically become newsworthy during strikes, which offer the

sensational and dramatic appeal of a direct confrontation or serve as indicators of

broader poor economic conditions in a particular region (Flynn, 2000, p. 140). Various

studies have highlighted the potential effects of media coverage on unions. Firstly, media

coverage can affect the collective bargaining process itself, as Flynn has found evidence

that increased media attention can increase the duration of strikes (2000). Some studies

have found that most media coverage related to labor unions focuses on strikes at the

expense of other union activities and that media sometimes exaggerate the frequency of

strikes, which has a negative influence on public opinion of labor unions (Schmidt,

1993). Some have gone so far as to partially attribute declines in union membership

levels to the bad news bias in labor union coverage (Erickson & Mitchell, 1996).

In an era of declining membership, Puettes claim that the public is learning more

about union activities from news and fictional media coverage and less from direct

experience as union members or contact with union members certainly seems plausible

(1992). Schmidt made a similar point in her discussion of how public opinion toward

interest groups, including unions, is mostly formed by media coverage of those groups

(1993, p. 152). Media-influenced negative opinions about labor unions date back at least

35 years, as LeMasters heard complaints about union leaders in the Middleton tavern:


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There is no idealism left in the trade union movement for these men. They haveread too many news stories about dishonest union officials to place any great faithin their union leaders. Its a goddamn racket, like any other racket, one man ofhis union (LeMasters, 1975, p. 184).

From individuals to communities: The impact of geographic and economic contexts on

political engagement

Though debate exists about whether homogenous political environments and

social networks foster or inhibit political engagement (Campbell, 2006; Mutz, 2002), a

growing body of research is finding that economic, racial and cultural diversity within a

community contributes to more robust political engagement overall (Gimpel, Lay &

Schuknect, 2003; Oliver, 2001; Burbank, 1997). In these communities different groups

clash more regularly over issues like public spending, so political conflict becomes more

frequent and by extension, so does political involvement (Oliver, 2001, p. 93). The

increased frequency of political conflict in larger (more pluralistic) communities is

consistent with the theory of structural pluralism, which has found that conflict tolerance

is higher in communities where conflict is more frequent (Tichenor, Donohue & Olien,

1980). In this sense, then, geographic and economic identities, along with racial and

cultural ones, mesh to form political behaviors and ideologies within particular local

contexts, based in strong part on the structural elements of those contexts.

Structural pluralism is defined, essentially, as a multiplicity of power centers

serving diverse interest groups (Nah & Armstrong, 2006; Donohue, Olien & Tichenor

1985b). Pluralistic communities are complex, grow rapidly and demonstrate a diversity of

specialized interests and institutions (Olien, Tichenor, Donohue, Sandstrom & McLeod,

1990). Structural pluralists pay special attention to economic and power structures within

a community, and a degree of pluralism measures the level of differentiation in a social


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system among institutional and specialized interest groups in a way that determines

potential sources of organized social power within a community (Tichenor, Donohue &

Olien, 1980).

Researchers at the University of Minnesota developed the theory of structural

pluralism in the 1970s and 80s to explain how structural elements could predict media a

host of media-related factors, including the attitudes and performance of journalists, the

content of news coverage, and audience responses to media messages. Structural

pluralists found that newspapers mirror the society, as local media were likely to mirror

the conditions of various societal contexts, including power conditions and alignments

(Tichenor, Donohue & Olien, 1980). This emphasis on the effect of community

characteristics on local media, rather than the local media's effect on society, is a key

contribution of this theory to the communications field (Nah & Armstrong, 2011). One of

the core hypotheses in this literature is that the less pluralistic the community, the more

likely citizens will be served by weekly newspapers and rely on television news. More

pluralistic communities are more likely to be served by daily newspapers, and residents

will be more likely to rely on those papers rather than television as sources of information

(Olien, Donohue & Tichenor, 1978). This includes conflict coverage, as small weekly

papers in less pluralistic communities are more likely to emphasize positive local events

rather than delve into contentious issues, which is more common in larger, more

pluralistic communities served by daily papers.

Newspapers in less pluralistic communities are more likely to attempt to find and

reinforce public consensus around an issue, as indicated by a series of case studies by

Tichenor's team on issues like regional planning and power lines in agriculture fields,


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Contextual effects result when the attributes of other people are politicallyrelevant, when those attributes create a bias in the information that peopleencounter, and when that information influences what people believe or how theyact (Burbank, 1997, p. 113).

More broadly, contextual effects work has found that elements of personal

identity and history can affect the likelihood of political participation, impressions of

efficacy and tolerance of others (Gimpel, Lay & Schuknecht, 2003). In particular,

neighborhoods with high voter turnout also demonstrate the highest level of political

knowledgeeven after controlling for individual partisanship (Gimpel & Lay, 2005).

Local media as a space for political engagement

Though media concentration continues to increase, most U.S. communities are

still served by some form of local media (Missouri School of Journalism, 2011) and

hyper-local news sites comprise a growing market for online journalism. In an era of

online forums and various social media outlets connected to media enterprises, one of the

oldest features of American newspapersthe letters to the editor sectionmay seem like

an anachronistic component of modern newspapers. Letter writers typically skew older

than non-writers in their communities (Hart, 2001), and it is not uncommon for

newspaper editors, and even broader community members, to characterize letter writers

as fringe members of society who dont or cant make meaningful contributions to public

discourse. For example, Wahl-Jorgensen found that editors at a San Francisco daily

newspaper considered letter writers to be insane or crazy:

The idiom of insanity is employed to poke fun of and distance the staff from theletter- writers by suggesting, in a variety of different ways, that they are insane.This is not to say that the editorial page staff truly believe that either letter-writersor citizens are generally insane. It is only to suggest that the staffs discussion of


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public participation is limited to a certain register of meaning and that their viewof letter-writers, in turn, affects their view of the readership as a whole (Wahl-Jorgenson, 2002a, p. 189).

This perception of letter writers, however, is at odds with other studies in which

opinion editors characterize the role of the letters to the editor section as a public sphere

or democratic space for public debate and information sharing (Perrin & Vasey, 2008;

Feyer 2003; Feyer 2004). Additionally, though much of the focus in letters to the editor

studies is on how editors select letters, some studies also have considered how letters

actually can influence editors and newspaper writers (see Shoemaker and Mayfield,

1987). For example, Pritchard and Berkowitz found that the level of attention to crime in

letters to the editor predicted attention to crime in editorials and front-page news in

several large daily newspapers, and they interpreted these results as suggesting that letters

to the editor are more important for understanding newspaper coverage than previously

realized (Pritchard & Berkowitz, 1991, p. 394). This is consistent with broader

discussions of how perceptions of public opinion influences newspaper editors, who often

try to stay in step with their communitys leanings, via the cascade model (Entman,

2003a; Entman, 2003b). By maintaining a space for public discourse, letters to the editor

sections also can help tighten bonds between newspapers and readers (Wahl-Jorgensen,

2002a).

Many scholars continue to reinforce perceptions of letters to the editor as hazy

reflections of public opinion (Grey & Brown, 1970, p. 450), though issues of whether

letters are authentic or genuinely grassroots expressions of public opinion exist for

letters that are prepared by advocacy groups or copied and circulated to multiple papers


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by on individual during an election (Reader, 2008; Richardson & Franklin, 2004).

Regardless of whether all letters to the editor in a given newspaper serve as a truly

representative slice of public opinion in a communityespecially a larger, urban oneat

the very least the letters do serve as additional pieces of topic-specific coverage, which

simply by nature of being published in print versions of the newspaper are lent a certain

level of credibility and prominence. Letters also are typically published online in some

form with permanent URLs, which again gives them more prominence than a typical

comment left below a digital article. Even if editors privately deride a letter writers

views, they are providing the author with a public platform that can perhaps help inform

other readers on dimensions of the election that may or may not be represented in

traditional coverage. Additionally, perhaps contrary to perceptions of letters as an

outdated form of political engagement, some editors are finding that email makes it easier

for people to submit letters, thereby increasing the volume of letters received daily

(Raeymaeckers, 2005).

Several scholars characterize letters as part of a newspapers agenda setting or

gatekeeping function within a community. Medium- to large-size dailies are typically

more selective in terms of publishing submitted letters (Perrin, 2008; Hart, 2001; Wahl-

Jorgensen, 2002b). If larger papers serve as stronger gatekeepers or agenda setters in

terms of selecting letters for publication, then in a sense those letters almost become

another form of heavily editedand even biased (Perrin & Vaisey, 2008)newspaper

coverage. Wahl-Jorgensens studies on the selection of letters to the editor in urban

newspapers found that editors publish letters based on relevance, brevity, entertainment

and authority (2002b). Novelty is also a key element for some editors; the chance of a


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local significance in various ways, would be more hostile than other letters published at

that time. Additionally, many of the demographic variables Perrin and Vaisey identified

as predicting letter writing coverage also dont appear to fit the Wisconsin context. For

example, Perrin and Vaisey found that older writers and liberal-leaning writers are less

likely to write about local topics. Instead, they found that women were more likely than

men to write about local issues and also to adopt a more civil tone (Perrin & Vaisey,

2008). While the gender and age of letter writers will not be considered in this study, the

partisan leanings of letter writers will be addressed, and it is predicted that partisanship

will not significantly predict tone.

This study is a unique contribution to the discussion of the role of letters to the

editor in that it will consider letters in papers across multiple communities of many sizes.

This study also will not isolate letters but instead consider them as part of the holistic

body of coverage produced by the paper during the recall election. Letters to the editor in

smaller communities, then, offer a special lens into community discourse around local

and nonlocal events, and without the letters, it would be difficult to glean any insight into

the nature of the election frames used in smaller communities. For this reason, letters to

the editor are included in this studys sample and are in fact over-represented in the

sample thanks to the heavy volume of letters present in small papers. This will be

discussed more in the methods section.

Framing the Wisconsin recall in local media

Approaches to studying frames vary as widely as do explicit definitions of frames.

Tankard articulated the list of frames approach, which involves looking at the media


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content itself and providing coders with a list of indicators to identify a wide range of

frames per article. Specifically, he advises the development of a list of keywords,

catchphrases and symbols for detecting each frame (Tankard, 2001). Additionally,

Semetko and Valkenburg outlined inductive-versus-deductive approaches for frame

analyses. While inductive approaches can be labor intensive and difficult to replicate

(Semetko & Valkenburg, 2000), its a method that does lend itself well to small samples.

An inductive approach is especially appropriate for the Wisconsin case, as this project is

most interested in identifying case-specific frames rather than fitting the Wisconsin

content into frames previously identified in other studies. However, despite this case-

specific emphasis, the five frame categories developed for coding the Wisconsin sample

do track in various ways with previous studies, and trying to fit these frame categories

into existing frame theories illustrates the wide range and diversity of frame

conceptualizations.

The frame categories that will be used in this study include: conflict frames,

economic frames, social discord frames, political process frames and policy frames.

Specific topics that fall under these categories and mechanisms for identifying these

frames will be discussed more in depth in the methods section. Meta-analysis has found

that the omnipresent conflict frame (Van Gorp, 2010, p. 157) is the most frequently

reported generic frame (Matthes, 2009). The conflict frame highlights tension between

individuals, groups or institutions (Semetko & Valkenburg, 2000). The flexibility of this

frame likely contributes to its high frequency, and journalists often choose to identify and

highlight oppositional forces out of habit (Tankard, 2001; Smith, 1997). Economic

consequence frames are also in the top five frames reported by Matthes (2009). These


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frames articulate financial impacts for individuals, groups or countries. Similarly to

conflict frames, economic frames are fairly common in everyday news coverage

(Semetko & Valkenburg, 2000; Neuman et al. 1992).

Political process frames are conceptualized here as a variation of Entmans

procedural frames, which look at the techniques, successes and representativeness of

political actors (Entman, 2003b). Frames looking at particular events, such as elections,

poll results, debates or voting logistic changes, also lend themselves well to the episodic

dimension of Iyengars frame theory, which focuses on very recent events or occurrences

(Iyengar, 1991). Similarly, the policy-specific frames used in this project closely

resemble issue-specific frames (see Capella & Jamieson, 1997), which dominate the field

of frame studies. Matthes found that 78% of framing studies identified issue-specific

frames, compared to 22% reporting generic frames (2009). Some scholars even use the

word issue to define frames. For example, Gamson and Croteau define frames as a

storyline about an issue (1992), and Bennett termed frames as scenarios, (1978).

The social discord frame developed for this study is essentially a conflict frame

with a morality twist that is highly specific to the Wisconsin case in terms of the

particular language, metaphors and catchphrases it includes. According to Semetko and

Valkenburg, a morality frame situates an event or issue within a religious or moral

prescription and may offer a social solution for the issue (2000). In Wisconsin, again,

much discourse surrounded the divisiveness of the recall election and called for cultural

reunification in various ways. The perceived reality (Entman, 2003b) of a divided culture

inherently acknowledges some form of conflict frame but characterizes that conflict in

terms of its social consequences or human impact frames (Neuman et al., 1992), rather


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than simply identifying antagonistic forces. That additional moral dimension takes the

social discord frame category beyond a more straightforward conflict one.

HYPOTHESES AND RESEARCH QUESTIONS

This project is especially interested in how community features affect the frames

and characteristics of articles related to the Wisconsin recall. Structural pluralism is the

theory that most explicitly links community features to media characteristics, and various

relationships between pluralism indicators and the Wisconsin recall coverage will be

explored in this project. In keeping with structural pluralism, a series of hypotheses have

been developed. Key elements of the theory that have informed these hypotheses include

the trend for less pluralistic communities to demonstrate more conflict-avoidant

tendencies than more pluralistic communities. According to structural pluralism theories,

less pluralistic communities are less tolerant of conflict because conflict is typically more

harmful in communities with smaller, more rural populations tied together via personal

connections. Less pluralistic communities are expected to demonstrate coverage patterns

consistent with conflict avoidance Therefore:

H1a. Fewer conflict frames will be present as compared to more pluralistic

communities.

H1b. Similarly, less pluralistic communities will demonstrate a higher percentage

of process-oriented frames as compared to more pluralistic communities.

Though news coverage in less pluralistic communities often downplays or lacks

information about conflict at all, there are times when civic conflict is unavoidable. In


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those instances, a communitys level of tolerance with conflict is especially likely to be

on display in its local media. It is predicted that less pluralistic communities, which

overall are expected to be less conflict tolerant in general, will express discomfort via

news coverage preoccupied with the social impact of the conflict rather than the specific

conflict dimensions. Specifically, then:

H1c. Less pluralistic communities will have more social discord frames than more

pluralistic communities. For example, civil unrest, vandalism and other forms of public

hostility will make up a larger percentage of news coverage in these communitieseven

if those incidents are occurring at a comparable rate in metropolitan areas.

Consistent with class-based and occupation-based identity literatures, it is also

expected that occupations especially relevant to the recall debate will impact coverage.

The recall was a product of protests over legislation related to government workers, and

much media coverage focused on teachers and public union members. Additionally, the

rural perspective would predict that rural identity as marked by agricultural

employment could also affect political ideology and therefore the specific conflict frames

dominant in more rural communities. Therefore:

H2. Occupational indicators, specifically the percentage of government workers

and agricultural employment in each county, are expected to predict conflict frames as

well as policy frames.

Frames are the dependent variables most of interest for this study, but article

characteristics may also be explained by structural pluralism indicators. The predictions

related to conflict avoidance outlined in H1 may appear to support a hypothesis that

small-town papers would be more civil and less contentious overall than metro papers,


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since again, conflict is often downplayed in less pluralistic contexts. However, small-

town newspapers, which are more likely to be published weekly or twice weekly,

provided far fewer news articles overall as compared to larger, daily metropolitan

newspapers. Instead, much of the recall discourse in small-town papers came via letters

to the editor. Since small-town editors typically run a higher percentage of letters

received than do metropolitan editors, its expected that such letters will be a particularly

valuable lens into the nature of conflict discourse in various Wisconsin communities.

These letters are inherently more emotional in tone than news stories. Therefore:

H3. Letters to the editor will comprise a higher percentage of coverage in less

pluralistic communities, which by extension will cause a higher frequency of emotional

tone overall in these counties.

Finally, a series of research questions was developed in order to explore

relationships between other various community features and discourse frame patterns.

Communities are made up of individuals, so indicators related to various social identities

will be considered. Geographic and economic indicators are in many ways similar to

pluralism indicators, but in keeping with the concept of pluralism as a measure of power

center diversity, variables that contribute more directly to understanding a communitys

institutional make-up will be considered together as pluralism, whereas other variables

that are more case-specific will be looked at separately. It is expected that these research

questions will help provide additional nuance for understanding results related to the

hypotheses outlined above. The research questions include:


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R1. Does geographic location affect the specifics of community coverage of a

contentious political event, as would be predicted from geographic-based identity

literature? Specifically, does the distance to Madison affect frame patterns?

R2. Do particular news frames correlate with county partisan identity? Or, do

Republican- or Democratic-leaning communities use different frame categories?

R3. Consistent with theories about class identity and how income is related to

voting patterns, economic indicators are expected to predict voting outcomes. However,

can economic indicators also predict news frames? If so, what frames are related to

economic indicators?


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CHAPTER 2

METHODS

Unit of analysis

Counties are a useful unit of analysis for this project because they offer a

straightforward set of geographic boundaries and readily available U.S. Census data

exists at the county level. More conceptually, counties are big enough but not too big for

looking at regional differences within a state. A rural county located in the northernmost

portion of Wisconsin functions fairly differently from a more urbanized county near the

southern border with Illinois. However, it would be difficult to quantify northern-versus-

southern or western-versus-eastern Wisconsin cultures because no real borders exist

representing these dimensions. Counties are more measurable and are likely to form a

gradient of trends representative of their respective state regions anyway.

A snapshot of the similarities and differences among Wisconsins 72 counties in

terms of conflict tolerance can be found in the local papers of these communities. This

project attempted to collect Wisconsin recall coverage from every county seat newspaper.

Though many small town residents regularly read newspapers from larger communities,

the small-town papers are useful for looking at hyper-local conversations. The letters to

the editor and editorials in particular offer especially unique insights into public discourse

happening in small towns.

Sample collection

The original plan for this project was to rely on online archives in order to collect

all recall-related coverage between May 8 and June 6, 2012. Search terms used in the


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word recall even if neither candidate was specified by name. Articles that were only

about state senate recall races or only about the lieutenant gubernatorial recall were not

collected, but articles that referenced the gubernatorial recall in addition to one of these

other races were included.

Functional online newspaper archives and the Wisconsin Newspaper Digital

Resource Site yielded the majority of the collection. However, a handful of papers were

not available via either approach. Specifically, newspapers owned by the Gannett

Company, Inc., were unavailable in any academic database, and a variety of methods

were used to collect coverage from these papers. For example, a team of University of

Wisconsin-Madison researchers from another project related to Wisconsin recall

coverage collected articles from the Green Bay Press Gazette, the Gannett flagship

publication, as well as theMilwaukee Journal Sentinel, the Wisconsin State Journaland a

handful of the other metropolitan-area newspapers while the recall election was in

progress during spring 2012. The author was affiliated with this team and therefore had

access to the articles in that collection. Additionally, research field trips were conducted

to collect the remaining Gannett newspapers. The Appleton Post-Crescent,The

Manitowoc Herald Times Reporterand theFond du Lac Reporterwere collected via

local community library microfiche and physical newspaper archives during January

2013.

This collection process yielded 1,724 articles from 71 newspapers. One county is

not represented in this collection: all issues ofThe Bayfield County Journalwere

available via the WNA archive, but the paper included no coverage related to the recall


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during the sample period. See Appendix E for an inventory of Wisconsins counties, the

paper chosen from each county and the number of articles collected from that paper.

Sample selection

Up to five articles from each newspaper were coded for various recall-related

news frames. Seventeen newspapers published less than five articles related to the recall

during the sample time frame, and so all recall-related articles in these papers were

coded. Using a random number generator, five articles were selected from the remaining

54 papers. This approach yielded a collection of 331 articles, which was manageable for

manual coding but still large enough to at least begin exploring the research questions of

interest. While this approach did not allow for a comprehensive look at recall coverage in

large-circulation and daily newspapers (a project limitation), it did ensure the

oversampling of papers from small and rural communities, which were key communities

of interest.

The sample selection included news articles, news analysis, editorials and letters

to the editor. This project was most interested in determining which recall frames were

present in various communities, and what messages residents were reading when they

opened their local newspapers. For this reason, each papers coverage was collected

holistically, and a random sample was drawn from that coverage regardless of article type

or whether a professional reporter or local citizen wrote the piece. See Appendix F for an

inventory of how many articles of each type were coded from each paper.


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Independent variables

In addition to the collection of news articles, various county demographic and

voting data were also collected via the U.S. Census, the Wisconsin Government

Accountability Board and other sources specified below. See Table 1 for an overview of

all predictors used as independent variables.

Structural pluralism was measured by looking at county seat newspaper

circulation, county population, county seat population, county population density

(persons per square mile), distance to nearest MSA (metropolitan statistical area), and

county non-agricultural employment. Newspaper circulation numbers for all but the

Menominee County paper were found via the American Newspaper Representatives and

Mondo Times. (TheMenominee Nation News websites link to advertising information

remained broken throughout this project). Data for the distance to MSA indicator was

calculated by measuring via Google Maps how far in miles a county seat is located from

the city center of the nearest MSA.

Median county income, percent of the county population with a bachelors degree

and percent of the county population that is not white were also considered as pluralism

indicators for this study, as these factors also illustrate a communitys structural

composition. Diversity, as measured by the percentage of white non-Hispanic county

residents, was a difficult variable to conceptualize, as ethnic diversity in most Wisconsin

counties is very low. In some counties, high percentages of American Indian residents

means the percentages of white residents are low, but this does not indicate diversity, as

these are still homogenous counties in terms of ethnicity. While problematic, this variable

at least served as some sort of lens, albeit a foggy one, into county racial diversity.


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Table 1Descriptive statistics for independent variables

Minimum Maximum MeanStd.

Deviation

Pluralism indicators

Newspaper circulation 1000 185710 11766.14 23869.474

County population 4348 952532 79330.1 133113.819

County seat population 490 597867 28526 76937.34

Non-white percent of county population 2 88 9.8472 11.50096

Percent of county population withbachelor's degree 10 45 20.06 6.971

Persons per square mile 8 3926 164.71 474.076

Median county income 31076 75064 48199.21 8213.932

Miles to nearest MSA 0 113 69.0139 30.2457

Percent of county population not

employed in agriculture 86.4 99.5 95.1764 3.07239

Case-specific indicators

Government workers as a percent of

county workforce 7 38 12.99 4.284

Miles to Madison 0 323 145.04 76.845

Economic vitality indicators

Percent of county population in poverty 4 32 11.72 4.149Percent of county workforceunemployed 2 12 4.35 1.291

Voting indicators

Republican recall election outcome 0 1 0.01 0.118

Closeness of recall outcome 0 1 .01 .118

Partisan shifts since 2000 0 5 2.03 1.529

Note: N=72

The pluralism indicators were combined into a pluralism index since so many

indicators were closely correlated (Cronbachs Alpha = .873). See Table 2 for the

correlation matrix between pluralism variables. Specifically, circulation, county


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Dependent variables

As outlined in the above section on framing, five categories of frames were

developed for coding articles. The lists of specific subframes included in each category

were developed by various incarnations of pilot coding and reading random article

selections pulled from the full collection. The subframes were the specific ways in which

the broader frames were expressed in news and editorial content. See Table 3 for an

overview.

Additional dependent variables related to article characteristics were also coded.

These included article type (news, news analysis, editorial or letter to the editor), article

subject (Barrett, Walker, both or other), article endorsement (Barrett, Walker or neither),

article slant (left, left leaning, neutral, right leaning, right) and article tone (emotional or

neutral). See Table 4 for an overview.

Coding

One coder in addition to the author was involved in the project. The instrument

and codebook are attached in Appendices A and B. Coding was completed during

February 2013. Inter-coder reliability was conducted on 10% of the total articles coded.

Each subframe was tested for reliability via Krippendorffs alpha. Twenty-two of 35

frames reached .7 or higher, with another eight reaching 1 (the coders agreed the frames

were not present in the reliability sample). Frames that did not reach .7 included

partisanship conflict, budget references, references to state culture, and public figure

endorsements. Coder re-training yielded more consistency on endorsement partisan

conflict references that rose to the level of a conflict frame (i.e., party references in


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political titles did not automatically count) and budget references (i.e., using the word

budget explicitly). State culture references continued to be a problematic subframe,

though the articles typically were coded as some form of social discord, and this broader

category coding was ultimately more important.

Analysis set-up

Data were organized according to two levels: the individual article level and the

county/newspaper level. The county level data was analyzed via linear regression models

and the article level data was analyzed via binary logistic regressions, both of which

looked for relationships between a newspapers coverage characteristics and frames and

the broader demographic, geographic and economic features of the broader county. At the

individual article level, subframes were counted to get a total count for every frame

category. Major frames (see Appendices C and D for clarification on major-versus-minor

frame coding) counted as 2, and minor frames counted as 1. Subframes were also counted

as present/not present. Any frame count of 1 or above was coded as 1 (present). Any

frame count of 0 was coded as 0 (not present).

At the county level, percentages were calculated for article type, subject,

endorsement, slant and tone in order to control for the number of articles per paper. Then,

subframes were added together for a total frame category count, which was divided by

the total number of articles for an individual newspaper to get the average number of

times a particular frame category appeared in that newspapers coverage. Finally, a

measure of present/not present was also calculated, where any category frame count 1 or

greater was coded as 1 and any category frame count of 0 was coded as 0.


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Table 3: Overview of article frames

Conflict Democrat/liberal versus Republican/conservative

Urban versus rural/suburbanMedia versus the public/candidates

Middle/working class versus elites/wealthy/corporations

Teachers/public sector unions versus other professions/the community

Other

Economic Federal/state/municipal budget

Campaign fundraising or candidate spending

Cost of recall to taxpayers

Job numbers/economic development

Other

Social discord Civil unrest (egging, death threats, protests)

Division in Wisconsin

Political signs/sign vandalism

Patriotism/upholding or protecting democracy

State culture/"The Wisconsin Way"

Other

Political Process Political misconduct or criminal behavior

Candidate qualifications or character traits

Endorsement from prominent figure

Debate coverage

Election results

National ramifications of recall

Appropriateness of recall

Poll numbers

Voting logistics (poll hours, websites, etc.)

Other

Political Policy Act 10/collective bargaining

Education (not explicity Act 10)

Environmental conservation

Healthcare

Hunting/gun rights

Mining

Women's rights

Other


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Table 4

Overview of article characteristics

Type News

News Analysis

Editorial

Letter to the Editor

Subject Tom Barrett/Tom Barrett campaign rep

Scott Walker/Scott Walker campaign rep

Roughly even

Neither or other

Endorsement Tom Barrett

Scott WalkerNeutral or neither

Slant Left

Left leaning

Neutral

Right leaning

Right

Tone Dispassionate/Reasoned

Emotional/Inflammatory


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CHAPTER 3

RESULTS

The data were organized in two ways: by county level and by article level. In the

county level analysis, the main dependent variables were the frame averages, or the

category counts divided by number of articles to get average of a particular frame

category in a particular newspaper. Percentages were also calculated for article type,

subject, endorsement, slant and tone in order to control for the number of articles per

paper. For the article-level analysis, the main dependent variables were the presence of a

particular frame category (1 for present, 0 for not present), as well as the presence or

absence of article characteristics, including type, subject, endorsement, slant and tone.

This was measured by creating categorical dummy variables for each possible outcome

for the various article characteristic variables.

Results are organized as follows:

Descriptive statistics County level results for frame averages and presences Article level results for frame averages and presences Article characteristics results Predictors for voting outcomes Hypotheses and research question outcomes

Of the 331 articles analyzed, Walker was the most frequent subject, by a wide

margin (Figure 1). Again, subject was coded for whether a particular candidate had

prominence or a noticeable majority of the coverage in a particular article. This could be

determined by the headline, lead and first few paragraphs of the story. Even if both

candidates were mentioned, if one was given noticeable more space and attention in the

story, it was not coded as a both article. Of 331 articles, 36 (10.9%) were explicitly


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about Tom Barrett, while 145 (43.8%) were explicitly about Scott Walker. Sixty articles

(18.1%) provided roughly equal

coverage, while 90 articles (27.2%) were

about a recall-related subject other than

one or both of the candidates.

The sample was fairly balanced

between news and opinion content.

Letters to the editor comprised the

majority of the coded sample, which was

a product of oversampling small-

circulation newspapers, which often had

little news coverage of the recall and

mostly confined discussion of the recall

to the letters to the editor page. Of the

331 articles, 103 (31.1%) were straight

news stories, 38 (11.5%) were coded as

in-depth news analysis pieces, 48

(14.5%) were editorials and 142 (42.9%)

were letters to the editor.

Each article was also coded for

whether it endorsed Walker, Barrett or

neither. Most news and news analysis


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articles were coded as neutral (189%). Seventy-three articles (22.1%), specifically

editorials and letters to the editor, clearly

endorsed Barrett, while 69 articles (20.8%)

clearly endorsed Walker.

Additionally, article tone and partisan

slant were also coded. Of the 331 articles, 149

(45%) were coded as having an emotional or

inflammatory tone. The remainder, 182 articles

(54.9%) were coded as neutral or non-emotional

in tone. Slant was coded on a five-point scale,

with 1 for explicitly Democratic or liberal, 2 for

left-leaning, 3 for neutral or unclear, 4 for right-

leaning and 5 for explicitly Republican or

conservative. Very few articles were expressly

partisan; most were partisan-leaning as

indicated by language that defined the other

side (union thugs, liberal crybabies, tea

partiers) or expressed policy views that aligned

with a particular side. For simplicity, 1s and 2s

were combined into a left category, while 4s

and 5s were combined into a right category.

Of the 331 articles, 81 (24.7%) slanted left, 171

(52.1%) were neutral (most news and news analysis articles were coded here), and 76


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(23.2%) slanted right. See Table 5 for an overview.

Table 5

Frequencies and percent of sample for each article subject, endorsement, slant and typeFrequency Valid percent

Subject Barrett 36 10.9

Subject Walker 145 43.8

Subject Both 60 18.1

Subject Neither 90 27.2

Endorse Barrett 73 22.1

Endorse Walker 69 20.8

Endorse Neither 189 57.1

Slant Left 81 24.7

Slant Neutral 171 52.1

Slant Right 76 23.2

Type News 103 31.1

Type News Analysis 38 11.5

Type Editorial 48 14.5

Type Letter 142 42.9

Note: N=331

From here, relationships were explored between the prevalence of certain frames

and various article characteristics. This was done at the county level, which meant frame

averages (a percentage of a frame category out of total coverage) per county were

evaluated. The averages controlled for the number of articles per county, since not all

counties had five articles. Table 6 lays out the results of a correlation between news type

and frame averages. News articles were a bit of a catchall, with most frame categories

appearing. News analysis was more closely associated with political process frames,

which included coverage related to the appropriateness of the recall election, voting

turnout and other logistics-related coverage. Longer stories typically had the space for


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included division in Wisconsin and civil unrest associated with the recall.

Table 7

Correlations between article subject and averages of frames per county newspaper

Conflict

average

Economic

average

Social discord

average

Political

process average

Political

policy

average

Barrett .071 -.085 .024 .166 .051

Walker .262 .356** .004 -.091 .468***

Both -.2 -.06 -.156 .33** -.091

Neither -.082 -.165 .282** -.084 -.316**

Notes: *p< .1, p < .05, ** p < .01, ***, N=72

Correlations between candidate endorsement and frame averages yielded some

interesting insights (Table 8). Editorials and letters to the editor that endorsed Tom

Barrett were associated with economic and political policy averages. Much economic

coverage focused on jobs and the contentiousness over competing job loss/creation

reports published during the recall election. Barrett in particular talked about those

reports while on the campaign trail.

Walker endorsements were also associated with economic frames, however, the

endorsements were more strongly negatively related to political process storiesthe most

major of which was the discussion of whether the recall was an appropriate response to

Walkers controversial policies.


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as were left-leaning articles. Surprisingly, right leaning articles were negatively

correlated with political process and policy framesit was expected that conservative

writers would discuss the recall appropriateness and collective bargaining bills

frequently.

An emotional tone was associated with conflict frames, but interestingly was

more strongly associated with economic frames (Table 10). Emotional tone was also

negatively related to political process frames. A neutral tone was negatively associated

with economic frames and was most strongly associated with political process frames.

Table 10

Correlations between article tone and averages of frames per county newspaper

Conflict

average

Economic

average

Social

discord

average

Political

process

average

Political

policy

average

Emotional

tone .216* .284** .139 -.288** .201*

Neutral tone -.153 -.249** -.061 .395** -.166

Notes: *p< .1, p < .05, ** p < .01, ***, N=72

In addition to the correlations between frame averages and article characteristics,

binary logistic regressions also were run to look for relationships between slant, subject,

endorsement, type, slant and tone and the presence or absence of frame categories at the

article level to cross check results at the county level. The article level data was used

because of its larger N.


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The full results did not warrant an additional table, but the key significant

relationships between each frame average and various article characteristics are listed

here (coefficients have been standardized): For conflict frames, characteristics that

significantly (p < .05) predicted the presence of conflict frames included article type 2

(news analysis) ( = .747,p =.033). For economic frames, article type 3 (editorials)

predicted the presence of economic frames ( = .88,p =.003). Article subject 2 (Walker)

also predicted the presence economic frames ( = .728,p =.003). For social discord

frames, article endorsement 1 (Barrett) predicted the presence of these frames ( = .378,p

= .095). For political process frames, an emotional tone negatively predicted political

process frames ( = -.878,p = .006). For political policy frame, subject 2 (Walker)

predicted political policy frames ( = .311,p = .001).

County-level frame averages

Next, relationships between various groups of indicators and the presence and

averages of frame categories were explored. Linear regressions were used at the county

level. The independent variable indicators included pluralism, economics, voting patterns

and case-specific variables.

Pluralism included standardized variables for circulation, county population,

percent of county workforce employed in agriculture, distance from county seat to MSA

and percent white.

Economic measures were split into two groups; traditional SES was measured by

percent of county population with a high school diploma, percent of county population

with a bachelors degree and median county income. Additionally, the percentage of


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county population in poverty and county unemployment were grouped together. These

economic variables were not all combined due to multicollinearity issues.

Voting patterns were measured by coding for Republican victories in the 2011

recall election, as well as every gubernatorial and presidential election back to 2000

(2010, 2008, 2006, 2004, 2002, 2000). Additionally, the number of partisan shifts per

county was used as an independent variable in this group.

Finally, case-specific variables were used, including distance to Madison and the

percent of the county population employed as a government worker.

Again, a multivariate regression was run to look for relationships between

pluralism, poverty and unemployment, recall closeness, recall outcome, partisan shifts,

percent of government workers and distance to Madison and frame category averages at

the county level. See Table 11 for full results. Surprisingly, the pluralism index did not

yield significant results. However, recall closeness and Madison distance were more

significant. Specifically, recall closeness (the absolute value of difference in percentage

of total votes between Barrett and Walker) predicted the average of economic frames and

political policy frames.

This means that communities with a larger difference in recall results (i.e.,

division in dairyland

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