Divining the Future: Library Workers and Information

Technology

Divining the Future: Library Workers and Information

TechnologyDarlene FichterDarlene Fichter

September 19, 1999September 19, 1999

Taking a Look at the FutureTaking a Look at the Future

ComputersComputers Wider Context: Knowledge Wider Context: Knowledge

Economy/Labour force trends economies, Economy/Labour force trends economies, consumers and Eatonsconsumers and Eatons

Library TrendsLibrary Trends What should library worker’s focus on?What should library worker’s focus on?

The FutureThe Future

"Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons." (Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, 1949).

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” (Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943).

"I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won't last out the year.”

(The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957).

"But what . . . is it good for?" (Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip).

There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.”

(Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp. 1977).

Knowledge based economyKnowledge based economy

Rapid shift to knowledge based economy has Rapid shift to knowledge based economy has an impact on education, training and skills an impact on education, training and skills required to find work in the 1990’s.required to find work in the 1990’s.

Labour ForceLabour Force Industry TrendsIndustry Trends SkillsSkills

What do the Economists have to say?What do the Economists have to say?

Like all industrialized countries, employment in Like all industrialized countries, employment in Canada has shifted from the goods sector (natural Canada has shifted from the goods sector (natural resources, manufacturing) to the services sector.resources, manufacturing) to the services sector.

Nearly 90% of the job growth in Canada since Nearly 90% of the job growth in Canada since 1967 has taken place in the services sector, with 1967 has taken place in the services sector, with business services experiencing some of the fastest business services experiencing some of the fastest growth rates.growth rates.

IT sector is one area experiencing growthIT sector is one area experiencing growth

Labour Market ModelsLabour Market Models

The Jelly DoughnutThe Jelly Doughnut

increasing number of increasing number of non-standard jobsnon-standard jobs

Jelly DoughnutJelly Doughnut

The doughnut model is so named because jobs The doughnut model is so named because jobs in the labour market can be defined as core in the labour market can be defined as core (the jelly centre of the doughnut) or peripheral (the jelly centre of the doughnut) or peripheral (the outer layer). Core jobs can be described as (the outer layer). Core jobs can be described as those that are full-time, full-year, with good those that are full-time, full-year, with good benefits and some career prospects. The usual benefits and some career prospects. The usual employer is a large firm or government.employer is a large firm or government.

Labour Market ModelsLabour Market Models

Layer CakeLayer Cake

decreasingdecreasingdemand for demand for middle level middle level jobsjobs

B.C. JobB.C. Job Futures web siteFutures web site

Layer CakeLayer Cake

Bottom LayerBottom Layer entry level jobs, minimum wageentry level jobs, minimum wage there is a continuing expectation for a high wage job among the there is a continuing expectation for a high wage job among the

inexperienced and lesser-skilled workers is resulting in both unfilled inexperienced and lesser-skilled workers is resulting in both unfilled service jobs and more unemployment.service jobs and more unemployment.

Middle LayerMiddle Layer excess of supply and no demandexcess of supply and no demand usually have experience or education but no specific marketable skillusually have experience or education but no specific marketable skill

Top LayerTop Layer highly marketable skill, high demand, short supplyhighly marketable skill, high demand, short supply Employers prefer not to substitute downEmployers prefer not to substitute down

TrendsTrends

Rise of small businesses with 20+ Rise of small businesses with 20+ employeesemployees

rapid increase self-employment. rapid increase self-employment. Impact on secretarial and support staffImpact on secretarial and support staff 64% of the jobs in the year 2000 will 64% of the jobs in the year 2000 will

require more than a Grade 12 vs. 44% of require more than a Grade 12 vs. 44% of existing jobs.existing jobs.

Skills (typewriter vs. computer)Skills (typewriter vs. computer)

Generic Skills for EmployabilityGeneric Skills for Employability people who can communicatepeople who can communicate people who can think and who show a willingness to people who can think and who show a willingness to

continue to learn throughout their livescontinue to learn throughout their lives people who can demonstrate positive attitudes and people who can demonstrate positive attitudes and

behavior, responsibility and adaptability, andbehavior, responsibility and adaptability, and people who can work with otherspeople who can work with others

Mathematical skills, basic computer Mathematical skills, basic computer literacy, entrepreneurial personalityliteracy, entrepreneurial personality

DoomsayersDoomsayers

The sky is falling!The sky is falling! All bad things stem from IT.All bad things stem from IT. In the old days, ….In the old days, …. Internet is junk (who cares that 40%* of people now Internet is junk (who cares that 40%* of people now

use it from home)use it from home) End of public libraries (as we know them)End of public libraries (as we know them)

*1998 Survey of Household Internet Use showed 35% *1998 Survey of Household Internet Use showed 35% usage, 40% usage is extrapolated based on growth usage, 40% usage is extrapolated based on growth trend from 1997 to1998.trend from 1997 to1998.

PollyannaPollyanna

Technology is greatTechnology is great Look at this new cool “dancing baby” siteLook at this new cool “dancing baby” site If you’re not wired, your passeIf you’re not wired, your passe The library is better than ever beforeThe library is better than ever before

Changing EnvironmentChanging Environment

Relearn your job every 2-3 yearsRelearn your job every 2-3 years New skillsNew skills Elimination of jobsElimination of jobs New opportunities ??New opportunities ??

"In the absence of the old containers [books], almost everything we think we know about intellectual property is wrong. We are going to have to unlearn it. We are going to have to look at information as though

we'd never seen the stuff before.”

Specific Library IT RolesSpecific Library IT Roles

Computer OperatorComputer Operator System OperatorSystem Operator

ProgrammerProgrammer Public Relations & Public Relations &

CommunicationsCommunications Web development, Graphic Web development, Graphic

Designers and Illustrating Designers and Illustrating ArtistsArtists

Computer ConsultantsComputer Consultants TrainersTrainers

New Job - Data Library AssistantNew Job - Data Library Assistant

No one would have No one would have the qualificationsthe qualifications

Actually had 3 pretty Actually had 3 pretty good applicants and good applicants and some others with some others with strengthstrength

Public Sectors Organizations Struggle to SurvivePublic Sectors Organizations Struggle to Survive Tax dollars are hard to findTax dollars are hard to find Competitors: bookstores, internet servicesCompetitors: bookstores, internet services Customer Service has been reinvented in Customer Service has been reinvented in

the 1990’sthe 1990’s

Ask yourself?Ask yourself?

Did library workers build the search Did library workers build the search engines?engines? Yahoo?Yahoo?

Did library workers build the biggest library Did library workers build the biggest library on the web?on the web? No Amazon did.No Amazon did.

It’s 12:00, do we know where our users are?It’s 12:00, do we know where our users are?

Ask ourselves what is a library in 1999?Ask ourselves what is a library in 1999? Is it bricks and mortar? Or was it bricks and Is it bricks and mortar? Or was it bricks and

mortar?mortar?

What has IT really meant for Library jobs?What has IT really meant for Library jobs? Initially, 1970s and 1980s no real Initially, 1970s and 1980s no real

productivity gains, just papering overproductivity gains, just papering over 1990’s - new products, new services - 1990’s - new products, new services -

reinventing librariesreinventing libraries - reorganizations are rampant- reorganizations are rampant

- downsizing - downsizing - outsourcing- outsourcing - “information age”- “information age”

TrendsTrends Disintermediation Disintermediation

(self service)(self service) self chargeself charge holdsholds

PersonalizationPersonalization CompetitionCompetition

how long until “lending” comes backhow long until “lending” comes back Internet (friend or foe)Internet (friend or foe)

New ProductsNew Products Constant ChangeConstant Change

TrendsTrends

ConsortiumConsortium Revenue GenerationRevenue Generation PartnershipsPartnerships

Whole new vocabularies - just in time, document delivery, HTTP, thin clients,

Success look likeSuccess look like

If libraries are successful, they will adapt If libraries are successful, they will adapt and find a niche in this new orderand find a niche in this new order

Value and ServiceValue and Service

EATONS VS CANADIAN TIREEATONS VS CANADIAN TIRE

Value Based ServiceValue Based Service

Obstacles: our library vendors are not with Obstacles: our library vendors are not with the programthe program

Our cultures are behind the timesOur cultures are behind the times What does our management team look like?What does our management team look like?

Libraries: What This MeansLibraries: What This Means

Together we are facing an incredible Together we are facing an incredible challenge with the changing economy. As challenge with the changing economy. As library workers it is both an exciting time library workers it is both an exciting time and frightening time.and frightening time.

Keep the public in the public library!