divided korea: genesis of a nuclear flashpoint whence the “axis of evil?”
TRANSCRIPT
Divided Korea:
Genesis of a Nuclear Flashpoint
Whence the “Axis of Evil?”
Two Koreas Today
South Korea GDP Per Capita
$20,400 Military Expenses
$21.06 billion Military as share of
GDP 2.6% Population 48,846,823 Infant mortality
6.16 deaths/1,000 live births
North Korea GDP Per Capita
$1,800 Military Expenses
$5.21 Billion Military as share of
GDP 31% Population 23,113,019 Infant Mortality
23.29 deaths/1,000 live births
Geography
Geography Division roughly
along the 38th Parallel
North Korea: Communist, anti-American
South Korea: Capitalist, pro-American
Korean History 1910 Japanese Annexation
Western and US Complicity Taft-Katsura Agreement
Domestic Independence Movements March 1st Movement, 1919
Independence Movements in Exile US Based: Syngman Rhee China and Soviet Based: Kim Il Sung
Korean History Repression under Japan
Japanese Language Japanese Names Japanese Education Forced labor and military service, “Comfort Women”
WW II in Korean History
World War II
Pearl Harbor
US Plan: Germany first, then Japan
WW II in Korean History
Cairo Conference: 1943
Korea to be occupied
Korean Independence “in due time”
WW II in Korean History
Yalta Conference: Feb. 4—11, 1945 USSR to join war on Japan 3 months after
German surrender USSR to participate in occupation of Korea
Potsdam Conference July 17—Aug. 2, 1945 Yalta Conference arrangements for Korea
Confirmed
WW II in Korean History August 6, 1945, Atom bomb on Hiroshima August 8, 1945, Russians enter the war
against Japan, fulfilling their Yalta Conference agreement
August 9, 1945, Atom bomb on Nagasaki August 10/11, 1945 (about midnight), young
colonels, Dean Rusk and Charles Bonesteel, under orders from Gen. McArthur, draw a division line at the 38th parallel, keeping the capital city, Seoul, in the American area.
August 15, 1945, Japan Surrenders.
Cold War History: Korea USA/USSR tensions emerge almost at
once
USA envisions capitalist democracy
USSR envisions communist government
South Korean History October, 1945
Syngman Rhee returned to South Korea from the US
Welcomed as a nationalist resistance leader by US leadership.
North Korean History October, 1945
Kim Il Sung returns to North Korea from Manchuria
Welcomed by Soviets as a nationalist resistance leader
Cold War History: US Containment
1947
George Kennan writes Mr. X article
Coins term and policy of Containment
Two Koreas Emerging Cold War conflict between USA
and USSR Joint elections impractical Two separate Korean Governments
established 1948 “Elections” in both North and South
Korea
Two Koreas Republic of
Korea (South)
Syngman Rhee’s Government 1948-1960
Pro-American Capitalist Anti-communist Pro Christian Authoritarian Corrupt Inept
Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North)
Kim Il Sung’s Government 1948-1994
Pro-Soviet / Pro-Chinese Anti-American Communist Becomes anti-religion Authoritarian Isolationist
Korean War January 12, 1950 United States Secretary of
State Dean Acheson US Press Club: RE: America's
Pacific defense perimeter Implies that the U.S. might
not fight over Korea This omission encouraged
the North and the Soviets
Korean War War begins June 25, 1950: North Korea
Invades Incheon landing, September 15 -
September 28, 1950 Chinese entry, October, 1950 January 4, 1951, Communist Chinese and
North Korean forces recapture Seoul. MacArthur was removed from command by
President Truman on April 11, 1951. Stalemate, July, 1951
Korean Division
Originally 38th parallel
Post Korean War: Red line called the DMZ
Korean War Ends
Cease Fire July 27, 1953 Neither Korea Signed Armistice State of war continues
Both Koreas considered themeslves the only legitimate authority
Both Koreas had aurhoritarian dictatorships at least through 1987
Post Korean War History South Korea: 40,000 US troops
remain to guard South Korea US supports pro American authoritarian
regimes
North Korea: Chinese troops leave North argues that South Korea is an
occupied country, not independent North sees US troops as a threat
South Korean History
South Korea
Corruption, incompetence, and cheating on elections leads to Syngman Rhee’s departure 1960
Military Coup brings Military to power in South Korea
South Korean History Park Chung Hee
leads South Korea Military Dictator Harsh discipline Anti-communist Economic
development for national security
Fantastic economic growth
Terrible human rights
North Korean History Kim Il Sung in North
Korea Juche Ideology
National independence
Aligned with USSR and China
Plays them off against each other until 1991
Standard pattern of brinksmanship to get what he wants
North Korea North Korea sees 40,000 US troops on its
southern border as a major threat South Korea is simply a colony of the US. NO need to work with SK, it is the US that matters.
Develops Juche ideology of independence Economic independence Military independence Focus on People’s needs
In reality, Juche is a failure both in independence and in People’s needs.
North Korea Authoritarian
Anti religious persecution
Inefficient production, very little economic growth
Becomes progressively less secure as South Korea outgrows the North
North Korea Cold War ends Communist Block Collapses 1991 North Korea can’t play China and Russia
against each other
South Korean President Roh Tae Woo (1988-1993) launches “Norde Politic” drive and normalizes relations with China and Russia, Isolating North Korea
Northern Crisis Isolated North Korea has difficulty
feeding its population Bad weather Communist incentive structure Poor distribution No more cheap resources from China and
Russia 25-30% of GDP spent on military
Nuclear Crisis North Korea launches Nuclear program, 1990 1994: NK Withdraws from membership with
International Atomic Energy Agency Jimmy Carter visits Korea representing Clinton
Administration
1994 Agreed Framework negotiated N. Korea gives up nuclear weapons for energy
support Korean Economic Development Organization
(KEDO) formed to help N. Korean energy development.
Relevant History Kim Il Sung dies in 1994
Kim Jong Il succeeds his father and continues his father’s government patterns
US and most experts expected North Korea to collapse under economic strains and leadership transition.
Nuclear Crisis 1994 Agreed Framework
DPRK's nuclear power plants would be replaced with light water reactor (LWR) power plants by a target date of 2003.
Oil for heating and electricity production would be provided while DPRK's reactors were shut down, until completion of the first LWR power unit.
Nuclear Crisis 1994 Agreed Framework
The two sides would move toward full normalization of political and economic relations.
The U.S. would provide formal assurances to the DPRK, against the threat or use of nuclear weapons by the U.S.
The DPRK would take steps to implement the Korean Peninsula Denuclearization Declaration.
Nuclear Crisis 1994 Agreed Framework
The DPRK would remain a party to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty.
IAEA ad hoc and routine inspections would resume for facilities not subject to the freeze.
Existing spent nuclear fuel stocks would be stored and ultimately disposed of without reprocessing in the DPRK.
DPRK would come into full compliance with its safeguards agreement with the IAEA
Nuclear Crisis US compliance with Agreed
Framework is spotty
North Korea doesn’t get adequate energy
NK continues pattern of “brinksmanship” to improve their position
South Korean Response
President Kim Dae Jung (1998-2003) Initiates “Sunshine Policy” Attempts for the
first time to engage NK with positive incentives
Negotiates some trade and family exchanges
Axis of Evil and Bush Doctrine
2002 State of the Union President Bush includes North Korea in “Axis of Evil” with Iraq and Iran
Iraq Invasion
President Bush declares the “Bush Doctrine” of preemptive war
US invades Iraq
North Korean Reaction 2003 Withdraw from Nuclear
Non-proliferation Treaty
Declares NK a nuclear power
Insists on addressing only US, not 6-party talks
South Korean Response
President Roh Moo Hyun (2003--) Continues Sunshine policy Disagrees with
Bush administration on hard line approach
Conclusions North Korea’s Nuclear threat derives
from North Korean perception of insecurity
Korea’s division created that insecurity
North Korea sees US as the core threat (40,000 US troops aimed at them)
Bush Doctrine and US behavior since 2001 reinforces perception of threat
Conclusions North Korean leadership is NOT crazy
nor suicidal
North Korea uses aggressive negotiating tactics to achieve its ends
North Korea is unlikely to USE nuclear weapons
Panic or over-reaction to North Korean provocations are counterproductive