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    The Daubert test of reliability: Fighting junk science in the

    courtrooms

    2002, Nov 2nd; from Skeptic Report

    by Steven B. Loomis

    I. Introduction

    In continuation of Renata Zilchs article on the Toxic Mold scare, this is a brief overview of the US

    court systems treatment of scientific and other expert testimony under the standards set forth by the

    Supreme Court in Daubert (Daubert v. Merrill Dow Pharmaceuticals, Inc., 509 U.S. 579, 595 (1993)).The toxic mold case cited by Renata Zilch in her article had the testimony of the Plaintiffs expert

    excluded on the grounds that the methodology used was simply too unreliable to be useful to the jury.

    See Allison v. Fire Insurance Exchange, 98 S.W.3d 227 (Tex. App.-Austin 2002, n.w.h.).

    The Texas standard, as discussed below, is based directly on the standards set forth by the U.S.

    Supreme Court in Daubert. This article is only a brief summary of some of the issues involved in experttestimony and the efforts by the court system in the U.S. to exclude unreliable expert testimony, or

    junk science, from trials without interfering with the jurys basic function as a finder of fact.

    II. Overview

    The U.S. court system places a great amount of faith in the collective ability of a jury to determine

    issues on a bewildering array of subjects, with no special training or education. That faith is tested

    somewhat when the jury is faced with testimony from purported experts using techniques or methods

    of analysis that lie far outside a lay persons normal sphere of knowledge.

    The courts have an inherent reluctance to take any issue of fact away from the jury. The credibility of

    any witness even an expert witness is a pure question of fact; there is no legal instruction regarding

    what a juror may or may not find credible or convincing. The courts authority is limited to issues oflaw, and it has no say on the decision regarding what type of evidence or witness should be believed.

    However, the courts and the drafters of the Federal Rules of Evidence recognized that unreliable or

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    irrelevant testimony from an expert is not useful to the jury, and in fact ultimately risks confusing them.

    There exists also the very real concern that a jury will give too much credence to a supposed expert

    based on his qualifications alone, and would be unable to effectively evaluate the science behind any

    opinions being offered. Finally, there is also the pragmatic fact that many litigants will simply usehired guns terminology from the old west used as shorthand for experts-for-pay who will

    essentially testify to anything, as long as they are paid enough.

    The Federal Rules therefore set the courts up as gatekeepers to insure that only opinions that arebacked by a consistent methodology be allowed before the jury. A subjective opinion from an expert

    with insufficient objective evidence to back it up is essentially no evidence at all.

    The courts, however, recognize that their job as gatekeepers is extremely limited in scope. The court

    does not attempt to weed out an opinion that it believes is incorrect, but only looks to the methodologyused to determine whether the result (whatever it may be) was arrived at in a reliable fashion. The

    exclusion of an experts testimony is supposed to be the exception, not the rule: Vigorous cross-

    examination, presentation of contrary evidence, and careful instruction on the burden of proof are the

    traditional and appropriate means of attacking shaky but admissible evidence.

    III. Daubert and The Federal Rules of Civil Procedure

    Because of the above considerations, the courts have long filled the role of gate keeper to ensure that

    expert testimony reaching the jury meets a basic level of reliability. Older case law (based on the

    common law Frye Test) (2)used a fairly stringent standard for determining if an expert could testifyin front of a jury: the testimony was inadmissible unless the principle it is based on is sufficiently

    established to have a general acceptance to the field in which it belongs. (3)

    The Frye test was used by the majority of U.S. Federal courts for over seventy (70) years.(4) While itwas widely accepted, a relatively small number of courts either refused to follow the strict test or

    actually repudiated it directly. (5)

    The test, poor at separating any new or novel scientific or technological procedure, came under

    increasing attack in the Eighties and early Nineties.(6)The Supreme Court in the Daubert finallydeclared that the more flexible Federal Rules of Evidence had completely replaced the Frye test in

    determining whether an experts testimony was admissible. (7)

    IV. The Daubert Test for Reliability

    Rule 702 of the Federal Rules of Evidence states, in part:

    A witness qualified as an expert by knowledge, skill, experience, training, or education, may testifythereto in the form of an opinion or otherwise, if:

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    1. the testimony is based upon sufficient facts or data,

    2. the testimony is the product of reliable principles and methods, and

    3. the witness has applied the principles and methods reliably to the facts of the case. (8)

    The key for the Court in determining whether an expert may testify before a jury is therefore primarily

    one of reliability of method. The court will not look at the actual opinion held by an expert, but

    merely examines his or her methodology to determine whether the procedures used would be expectedto lead to trustworthy results.(9) If an expert relies on unreliable foundational data or his methodology

    is not reliable, then his entire opinion is likewise unreliable and should be excluded from the jury. (10)

    A. The Daubert Factors

    The U.S. Supreme Court set out several specific factors that should be used by the courts in evaluating

    any proposed expert testimony. These factors are not exclusive and some or all may not apply in any

    given case, but they are always the place to start the reliability analysis. (11) The factors are as follows:

    1. Whether the theory or technique has been scientifically tested;

    2. Whether the theory or technique has been subject to peer review or publication;3. The (expected) error rate of the technique used;

    4. Acceptance of the theory or technique in the relevant scientific community.(12)

    The test is meant to be a flexible one, with no single factor being dispositive.(13) Likewise, theSupreme Court recognized that not all factors would be useful in all cases, and that other factors may

    be more important than any of the listed ones for a specific case. (14)Obviously, an opinion or type of

    analysis created specifically for use in a lawsuit is not given the same weight as a method of analysis

    that is widely accepted by the scientific community outside the litigation setting. While the Daubert testis certainly more liberal than the older, Frye standard, it still allows the exclusion of testimony where

    the court is convinced that the method used to support the opinion is simply too poorly designed to be

    trustworthy.

    B. Other Factors

    Since the Daubert decision was handed down, the federal courts have identified a number additional

    factors which have been useful in examining the reliability of expert opinion. These include thefollowing:

    1. Whether experts are proposing to testify about matters growing naturally and directly out of

    research they have conducted independent of the litigation, or whether they have developed

    their opinions expressly for purposes of testifying. (15)

    2. Whether the expert has unjustifiably extrapolated from an accepted premise to an unfoundedconclusion. (16)

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    3. Whether the expert has adequately accounted for obvious alternative explanations. (17)

    4. Whether the field of expertise claimed by the expert is known to reach reliable results for the

    type of opinion the expert would give (Skeptics will be happy to note that even the most

    reliable astrologer using methodology widely accepted by the relevant scientificcommunity can be excluded under this analysis).(18)

    The above list of additional factors is taken directly from the commentary to the 2003 version of theFederal Rules of Evidence regarding Rule 702.

    C. Texas Factors

    As Renatas associated article shows, the Texas courts use a test derived directly from the Supreme

    Courts Daubert analysis.(19) Many states have adopted similar language and analysis, as their state

    rules of evidence are patterned directly after if not identical to the Federal Rules of Evidence.(20)

    The Texas Supreme Court, while accepting the analysis and conclusions of the U.S. Supreme Court in

    Daubert, declined to simply adopt the Daubert factors.(21) The Texas courts therefore use a slightlydifferent formulation of the same concepts. In any case involving a challenge to the reliability of expert

    testimony, the courts examine the following factors:

    1. The extent to which the theory has been or can be tested;

    2. The extent to which the technique relies upon a subjective interpretation by the expert;

    3. Whether the theory has been subject to publication and/or peer review;

    4. The techniques potential rate of error;5. Whether the underlying theory or technique has been generally accepted as valid by the relevant

    scientific community; and

    6. The non-judicial uses that have been made of the theory or technique (i.e., was is developedsimply for litigation?).(22)

    Like Daubert, these factors are non-exclusive; the courts are allowed to look at any facts that it feels are

    relevant to its examination of the experts methodology.(23)

    Also like Daubert, the courts are cautioned to focus solely on the validity of principles andmethodology underlying the testimony, not the conclusions generated. (24) This is a test designed to

    find bad methodology, not exclude opinions that the court believes are incorrect.

    V. Application to Mold Cases

    Issues of causation in toxic mold cases, such as the one cited by Renata, are well suited for the abovetype of reliability analysis. In any case of alleged negligence, it is necessary for a plaintiff to prove not

    only that the Defendant has breached a duty of care, but that the breach actually caused the damages

    complained of. This type of causation evidence is outside the general knowledge of a lay person and istherefore almost exclusively within the realm of expert testimony.

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    Causation, in mold cases (or any case involving alleged health problems from exposure to a substance

    or chemical), is a two-step hurdle for the plaintiff. First, he or she must show that the substance in

    question can cause the type of damages attributed to it. This is called general causation can the

    substance cause the type of damages alleged in the general population? (25)

    If the plaintiff passes the first hurdle, then he or she must also show (by a preponderance of the

    evidence) that the substance in question actually caused his or her specific injuries. (26)

    An expert must show a sufficient factual grounding for both of these levels of causation before that

    testimony can be considered reliable enough to be put in front of a jury. In the Allison case cited byRenata, the plaintiffs expert relied on epidemiological studies, but failed to show that such reliance

    met accepted standards within the scientific community.(27)In fact, the expert testified that:

    1. he could not give a confidence interval for the results of his study;

    2. he could not give a calculation for any risk factors for exposure; and3. he could not state that the techniques used in the study were generally accepted. (28)

    This testimony, combined with the fact that the expert appeared to be using this study merely for

    litigation (and in a manner not generally used by his field of study), allowed the trial court to excludehis entire testimony without any real controversy. The decision was upheld on appeal with a minimum

    of text devoted to the issue. (29)

    This case helps illustrate that the science behind at least some of the mold cases is built more upon

    wishful thinking and the profit motive than actual science. Until and unless the plaintiffs in such casescan come up with a methodology that passes muster, the coming wave of toxic tort litigation risks

    going the way of bathtub fusion.

    Endnotes

    1. Daubert v. Merrill Dow Pharmaceuticals, Inc., 509 U.S. 579, 595 (1993) (emph. (dashes)

    added); see also Notes of Advisory Committee, Rule 702, Federal Rules of Evidence.

    2. Frye v. United States, 293 F. 1013, 1014 (D.C. Circuit 1923).

    3. Daubert, 727 F. Supp. 570, 572 (S.D. Cal. 1989), affd 509 U.S. 579 (1993) (internal quotationmarks omitted) (quoting United States v. Kilgus, 571 F.2d 508, 510 (9th Cir. 1978)).

    4. See, e.g., E. Green & C. Nesson, Problems, Cases, and Materials on Evidence, p.649 (1983).

    5. See, e.g., DeLuca v. Dow Pharmaceuticals, Inc., 911 F.2d 941, 954-55 (3rd Cir. 1990) (rejectingFrye standard outright).

    6. See Daubert, 509 U.S. 590-91.

    7. Id. At 591, 593.8. Rule 702, Federal Rules of Evidence. Note that this is a post-Daubert rendering of the Rule.

    The text was changed to acknowledge the Daubert decision, but it also avoided listing any

    specific factors.9. See generally, e.g., North Dallas Diagnostic Center v. Dewberry, 900 S.W.2d 90, 95 (Tex. App.-

    Dallas 1995, writ denied) (interpreting the Texas standard based on the Federal standard and

    Daubert).

    10.Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, Inc. v. Havner, 953 S.W.2d 706, 714 (Tex. 1997) (also using theTexas standard).

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    11.Daubert, 509 U.S. at 591, 593; see also Kumho Tire Co. V. Carmichael, 526 U.S. 137, 140

    (1999); Black v. Food Lion, Inc., 171 F.3d 308 (5th Cir. 1999) (holding that a court should first

    consider the applicability of the Daubert factors, and only then determine if any other factors

    may be relevant).12.Daubert, 509 U.S. 591-593.

    13.Id.

    14.Id.15.Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, Inc., 43 F.3d 1311, 1317 (9th Cir. 1995) (on remand).

    16.See General Elec. Co. v. Joiner, 522 U.S. 136, 146 (1997) (noting that the trial court may

    conclude that there is simply too great an analytical gap between the data and the opinionproffered).

    17.See Claar v. Burlington N.R.R., 29 F.3d 499 (9th Cir. 1994) (excluding expert testimony where

    expert failed to even consider possible causes for the plaintiffs condition).

    18.See Kumho Tire, 119 S.Ct.at 1175 (Dauberts general acceptance factor does not help showthat an experts testimony is reliable where the discipline itself lacks reliability, as for example,

    theories grounded in any so-called generally accepted principles of astrology or necromancy.);

    see also Moore v. Ashland Chemical, Inc., 151 F.3d 269 (5th Cir. 1998) (en banc) (clinicaldoctor was properly precluded from testifying to the toxicological cause of the plaintiffs

    respiratory problem, where the opinion was not sufficiently grounded in scientific

    methodology).19.C.f. E.I. du Pont Nemours & Co. v. Robinson, 923 S.W.2d 549 (Tex. 1995).

    20.E.g., id. And cases cited therein.

    21.Id.; see also Gammill v. Jack Williams Chevrolet, 972 S.W.2d 713, 726 (Tex. 1998).22.Robinson, 923 S.W.2d at 557.

    23.Id.

    24.Dewberry, 900 S.W.2d at 95.

    25.E.g., Havner, 953 S.W.2d at 714-15.26.Id. At 715.

    27.Allison, 98 S.W.3d at 236.

    28.Id.29.Id.