Dimochafrom DIsparities in MOrtality trends to future health

CHAllengesProject ANR-12-FRAL-0003-01/DFG

Paris, March 30, 2015

Domantas Jasilionis, Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung Nadine Ouellette, Institut national d’études démographiquesJacques Vallin, , Institut national d’études démographiques

• To better understand historical divergence in mortality within the developed world in order to identify factors of mortality change and to foresee future health challenges

• Thanks to a precise analysis of cause-of-death trends and differentials since the 1960s in 8 large industrialized countries (England & Wales, France, Germany, Japan, Poland, Russia, Spain, United States)

Aim of the project

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Life expectancy at birth: divergence with recent signs of convergence?

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55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

1970 2010

Females

7.2

7.4

11.9

13.311.6

1984 1994 200455

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

1970 2010

e0, i

n y

ears

Males

9.21

13.1

19.7

20.117.2

1984 1994 2004

Individual countries All countries

High Income countries Central and Eastern Europe

Former USSR Source: Timonin, Shkolnikov, Jasilionis, Grigoriev, 2015.

• New methods to link causes of death and measures of survival and longevity

• A patient reconstruction of coherent time series of mortality by cause for 8 large countries (England & Wales, France, Germany, Japan, Poland, Russia, Spain, United States)

Methods and data

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• Published articles and methodological papers • Contribution to theory of health transition• Forecasts of future trends• Database

Expected outputs

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• Already published articles in the leading demographic journals and on-going work on methods for assessment of components of inter-country mortality divergence and lifetime disparity.

• Methods and computer programs for automating reconstruction of cause of death series.

• Prepared metadata and format of the database

First results

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Components of inter-country mortality divergenceEchoes from the past: East/West political divide before the fall of the Berlin wall determines longevity disparity today.

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0

10

20

30

40

50

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Var

ianc

e, s

q. y

ears

Within-group varianceBetween-group variance

Males

0

10

20

30

40

50

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Within-group varianceBetween-group variance

Females

Changes in population-weighted variance in life expectancy at birth and its componentsin 36 developed countries, 1970-2010. Analysis based on new method of decomposition of disparity.

Groups of countries:

1) High income countries2) Central and Eastern Europe3) Former USSR

Source: Timonin, Shkolnikov, Jasilionis, Grigoriev, 2015.

Goals:•Provide free and user friendly access to high quality data on causes of death for selected countries•Provide harmonized and comparable across time data

Main features:•Standardized data formats (input and output)•Precisely documented data•Uniform approach to data processing•Three versions of CoD data series for every country: full (original classification in reconstructed data, usually ICD10), intermediate, and short versions of CoD lists. Two last versions are standardized and comparable across all countries in the CODD•Ready to use death rates by causes of death

Causes of Deaths Database (CoDD)

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Causes of Deaths Database (CoDD)

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Causes of Deaths Database (CoDD): data flows

Death counts by causes of deaths: reconstructed continuous data

series, causes given as detailed as possible (long list)

Background and Documentation: detailed description of country data

including all relevant information about reconstruction of COD series

Population exposures from the Human

Mortality Database

Death rates

Death counts by causes of deaths: standardized

intermediate list (105 causes)

Death counts by causes of deaths: standardized short

list (17 causes)

Web-site: B&D, death rates by CoD (full, intimidate, and short lists of CoD), population exposuresinterm.,

• Reconstructing coherent time series of mortality by cause is usually a very strenuous exercise- Passage from ICD-9 to ICD-10 is particularly challenging, with

thousands of cause-of-death items to deal with

• Historically, the reconstruction was made manually

• As part of the project, computerized routines are now being developed- Advantages: speeds-up the process, reduces subjectivity, etc.

- Human intervention remains necessary

Automatizing the reconstruction of cause-specific mortality series

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• Health situation often characterized as long-running crisis- Decline in life expectancy interrupted only twice since 1960s

• Large wave of progress began in 2003, still ongoing

→Did Russia join the cardiovascular revolution?(i.e., continuous & irreversible reduction in cardiovascular mortality)

• Comparative analysis of cause-specific mortality patterns(Russia vs. other countries that have entered the cardiovascular revolution)

• Similar patterns between Russia and other countries at comparable periods of time, especially for females, but a return to mortality stagnation cannot be ruled out

Beginning of the cardiovascular revolution in Russia?

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• A project with demanding requirements: - Highly skilled human resources are needed…It takes time to identify the right people and for them to become familiar

with the project

• Postdocs have a life outside the project, too!- Two pregnancies- One postdoc getting a permanent researcher position

• The reconstruction work is taking longer than expected:- Great diversity of the ICD-10 use across countriesE.g., cases of Russia and France

Delays explained

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• The DIMOCHA Project is running smoothly and we would like to be granted an extension to achieve the goals initially set- A project extension request for 1-year has recently been

submitted

Conclusion

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Journal articles•GRIGORIEV P., MESLÉ F., SHKOLNIKOV V.M., ANDREEV E., FIHEL A., PECHHOLDOVA M., VALLIN J., 2014. - The recent mortality decline in Russia: Beginning of the cardiovascular revolution?. Population and Development Review, 40(1): 107-129. •GU D., GOMEZ-REDONDO R., DUPRE M.E., 2015. - Studying disability trends in aging population, Journal of Cross-Cultural Gerontology, 30: 21-49.•JASILIONIS D., SHKOLNIKOV V.M., ANDREEV E., JDANOV D.A., VÅGERÖ D., VALLIN J., MESLÉ F., 2014. - Do vanguard populations pave the way towards higher life expectancy to the others? Population-E, 69(4). •JASILIONIS D., SHKOLNIKOV V.M., ANDREEV E., JDANOV D.A., VÅGERÖ D., VALLIN J., MESLÉ F., 2014. - L’avant-garde en matière d’espérance de vie montre-t-elle la voie au reste de la population ? Population-F, 69(4): 589-616. •OUELLETTE N., BARBIERI M., WILMOTH J.R., 2014. - Period-based mortality change: Turning points in trends since 1950. Population and Development Review, 40(1): 77-106.•VAN RAALTE A.A., MYRSKYLÄ M., MARTIKAINEN P., 2015. - The role of smoking on mortality compression: An analysis of Finnish occupational social classes: 1971-2000. Demographic Research, 32 (20): 589-620.

List of publications (since January 2014)

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Book chapters•GÓMEZ-REDONDO R., in press. - “Mortalidad y Longevidad” in Torres C. et al. (eds), La Situación Social de España, Centro de Investigaciones Sociológica, Chapter. 1.4: p. 6-47.•CAMARDA G., 2014. - Reconstructing mortality series by cause of death: Two alternative approaches . In Kneib T. et al. (eds), Proceedings of the 29th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, Göttingen (Germany), p. 69-74.

Conference papersEuropean Population Conference, Budapest, 24-28 June 2014:•BARBIERI M., OUELLETTE N., ANDREEVA M., WINANT C., RIFFE T., 2014. - The age of degenerative diseases in the United States: A geographic perspective. •BOHK C., RAU R., 2014. - Dynamic forecast of irregular mortality developments within a Bayesian framework . •CAMARDA G., PECHHOLDOVA M., 2014. - Assess the presence of disruptions in cause-specific mortality series .•DANILOVA I., MESLÉ F., VALLIN J., 2014. - Reconstruction of coherent cause-specific mortality time series for Russia and its regions .•ISHII F., 2014. - Analyzing the trends of the modal age at death for European Countries and Japan using the LD model.•MESLÉ F., 2014. - Mortality in Central and Eastern Europe. The end of a 40-year health crisis? •PENINA O., MESLÉ F., VALLIN J., 2014. - Changes in drinking habits and alcohol-related mortality in Eastern Europe . •PONIAKINA S., MESLÉ F., 2014. - Cause of death patterns in Ukraine’s regions. •RAU R., BOHK C., MUSZYNSKA M., 2014. - Visualizing mortality dynamics for causes of death. •VAN RAATLE A., SHKOLNIKOV V.M., JDANOV D.A. 2014. Changes in inter-country differences in length of life and lifetime losses (1970-2010)

PAA Meetings, Boston, 1-3 May 2014 & San Diego, 30 April-2 May 2015:•BARBIERI M., OUELLETTE N., WINANT C., RIFFE T., 2015. - The cardiovascular revolution in the United States: A geographic analysis.•CAMARDA G., PECHHOLDOVA M., 2014. - Assess the presence of disruptions in cause-specific mortality series . •CAMARDA G., PECHHOLDOVA M., MESLÉ F., 2015. - Cause-specific senescence: classifying causes of death according to the rate of aging.•DIACONU V., BOURBEAU R., OUELLETTE N., CAMARDA G., 2015. - Differences in cause-specific lifespan distributions: The confounding effect of age.

List of publications (since Jan. 2014 only)

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Conference papers (cont’d)PAA Meetings, Boston, 1-3 May 2014 & San Diego, 30 April-2 May 2015:•OUELLETTE N., BOURBEAU R., 2014. - The age-trajectory of mortality at ages 100 and beyond: An analysis of ind.-level data in Canada. •VALLIN J., JASILIONIS D., MESLÉ F., 2015. - Does chaotic history make life expectancy trends chaotic in frontier countries like Baltic States?

MODICOD and DIMOCHA meeting, Paris, 23-24 October 2014: •BARBIERI M., 2014. - Reconstruction status for the United States, 1968-2010.•CAMARDA G., 2014. - Estimating transition coefficients: Two alternative approaches.•CAMARDA G., 2014. - Assessing the presence of disruptions in cause-specific mortality series. A statistical approach.•CAMARDA G., Pechholdova M., 2014. - Cause-specific senescence: classifying causes of death according to the rate of aging. •CAMARDA G., PECHHOLDOVA M., 2014. - Constructing associations automatically. •DANILOVA I., 2014. - Progress in reconstruction of cause-of-death series. Russia. •FIHEL A., PECHHOLDOVA M., 2014. - Comparative analysis of cause-of-death trends in Poland and the Czech Republic.•GOMEZ-REDONDO R., Faus A., 2014. - Progress in reconstruction of cause of death series: Spain. •GRIGORIEV P., 2014. - Recent mortality decline in Russia, Belarus and Ukraine: is this the beginning of the cardiovascular revolution? •IONITA A., PENINA O., 2014. - Starting reconstruction for Romania. •ISHII F., KOREKAWA Y., 2014. - A progress report on the reconstruction of the japanese mortality data.•JASILIONIS D., GRIGORIEV P., STUMBRYS D., 2014. - Alcohol-related mortality in Belarus and Lithuania. •JDANOV D.A., SHKOLNIKOV V.M., 2014. - Algorithm of contour replacement for assessment of longitudinal and cross-sectional components of a difference. •KLUSENER S., 2014. - Spatial analysis of mortality data: potentials and examples.•MESLÉ F., 2014. - Reconstruction of continuous series of deaths by cause, where we wanted to go, where we are. •MESLÉ F., VALLIN J., 2014. - Baltic countries: Using the Camarda method to detect ruptures in time series. •OUELLETTE N., 2014. - Reconstructing cause-of-death series: The case of England and Wales, 1979-2012

List of publications (since Jan. 2014 only)

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Conference papers (cont’d)MODICOD and DIMOCHA meeting, Paris, 23-24 October 2014: •PECHHOLDOVA M., 2014. - Czech Republic: Transition between ICD9 and ICD10. •PONIAKINA S., 2014. - Spatial analysis: example of Ukraine.•SHEVCHUK P., PONIAKINA S., 2014. - Reconstruction of cause-of-death data: Ukraine. •SHEVCHUK P., SHKOLNIKOV V.M., JASILIONIS D., GRIGORIEV P., 2014. - Assessment and decomposition of variation in life expectancy across HMD countries. •VAN RAATLE A., JDANOV D.A., SHKOLNIKOV V.M., 2014. - Mortality divergence: initial age structures of mortality and age-specific mortality trends. USA vs. HMD countries.•CAMARDA G., OUELLETTE N., VALLIN J., MESLÉ F., 2014. - Différences d’âge modal au décès entre les sexes: Nouveau regard sur une mesure cruciale de la durée de vie. XVIIIe Colloque international de l’AIDELF, Bari.

Working papers•JDANOV D.A., SHKOLNIKOV V.M., 2014. - Assessment of cross-sectional and longitudinal components of a difference with an algorithm of contour replacement. - Rostock, MPIDR, 11 p. (WP-2014-010, November 2014).•JDANOV D.A., SHKOLNIKOV V.M., 2014. - An R-script for the assessment of the cross-sectional and the longitudinal components of a difference between two values of an aggregate demographic measure by contour replacement. - Rostock, MPIDR, 6 p. (TR-2014-003, December 2014). •PENINA O., 2014. - « Speranța de viață și cauze de deces în Republica Moldova [Life expectancy and causes of death in Moldova] », in Profilul sociodemografic al Republicii Moldova la 20 de ani după adoptarea Programului de acțiune de la Cairo [Socio-demographic profile of the Republic of Moldova 20 years beyond the adoption of Cairo Programme of Action], p. 83-87. - Chisinau, Institutul Național de Cercetări Economice, Academia de Științe a Moldovei, (in Romanian).•PENINA O., 2014. - « Mortalitatea excesivă în Republica Moldova [Premature mortality in Moldova] », Analele Institutului Națonal de Cercetări Economice, 2(IV), p. 142 147. (in Romanian).‑•PENINA O., 2014. - « Эпидемиологический переход в пост-советских странах [Epidemiological transition in the post-soviet countries] », in: International Conference Economic Growth in Conditions of Globalization. - Chisinau, Institutul Național de Cercetări Economice, Academia de Științe a Moldovei, p. 30 41 (in Russian).‑•PENINA O., GRIGORIEV P., JDANOV D., 2014. - About mortality data in Moldova. Report paper.

List of publications (since Jan. 2014 only)

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Project members

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The DIMOCHA Project Team:

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