Developments in the Developments in the U.S. Cotton Market U.S. Cotton Market

美国棉花市场发展现状美国棉花市场发展现状

Zhengzhou Agricultural Futures (Cotton) Forum郑州农产品期货（棉花）高峰论坛

September 10, 20102010 年 9 月 10日

U.S. Supply and Demand 美国棉花供求状况

Million Metric Tons （百万公吨）

Beginning Stocks Beginning Stocks 期初库存期初库存 2.192.19 1.381.38Production Production 产量产量 2.792.79 2.652.65

Total Supply Total Supply 总供给总供给 4.984.98 4.034.03

Mill Use Mill Use 工厂使用工厂使用 0.78 0.78 0.740.74ExportsExports 出口出口 2.892.89 2.612.61

Total OfftakeTotal Offtake 总销售总销售 3.673.67 3.353.35

Ending StocksEnding Stocks 期末库存期末库存 1.381.38 0.680.68Stocks-to-Use Ratio Stocks-to-Use Ratio 库存库存 -- 使用比使用比 37.6%37.6% 20.1%20.1%

2008/09 2009/10

U.S. Supply and Demand美国棉花供求状况

Million Metric Tons （百万公吨）

20092009

/10/10 2010/112010/11

% Change% Change变化变化 %%

Beginning StocksBeginning Stocks 期初期初库存库存 1.381.38 0.630.63 -54%-54%Production Production 产量产量 2.652.65 4.044.04 52%52%

Total SupplyTotal Supply 总供给总供给 4.034.03 4.714.71 17%17%Mill Use Mill Use 工厂使用工厂使用 0.740.74 0.740.74 0%0%Exports Exports 出口出口 2.612.61 3.273.27 25%25%

Total OfftakeTotal Offtake 总销售总销售 3.353.35 4.014.01 20%20%Ending StocksEnding Stocks 期末库期末库存存 0.680.68 0.700.70 11%11%Stocks-to-Use RatioStocks-to-Use Ratio库存库存 -- 使用比使用比 20.1%20.1% 17.4%17.4%

U.S. Cotton ProductionU.S. Cotton Production美国棉花产量美国棉花产量

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Higher Cotton Prices Encouraged Higher Cotton Prices Encouraged PlantingPlanting

高价推动的棉花种植高价推动的棉花种植NY December Cotton Futures

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Prices for Competing Crops Prices for Competing Crops Remained Steady Remained Steady

竞争性农作物价格持续平稳竞争性农作物价格持续平稳NY November Soybean

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2010 U.S. Cotton Plantings2010 U.S. Cotton Plantings20102010 年美国棉花种植面积年美国棉花种植面积Thousand Hectares Thousand Hectares （千公顷）（千公顷）

20092009 20102010% Change% Change

变化变化 %%Southeast Southeast 东南部东南部 765765 1,0221,022 33.533.5Mid-South Mid-South 中南部中南部 658658 761761 15.615.6

Southwest Southwest 西南部西南部 2,1222,122 2,4082,408 13.513.5West West 西部西部 100100 140140 39.639.6ALL UPLANDALL UPLAND陆地棉陆地棉

3,6453,645 4,1744,174 14.514.5

ALL ELS ALL ELS 其它其它5757 8585 47.847.8

ALL COTTONALL COTTON棉花总量棉花总量 3,7033,703 4,4154,415 19.219.2

Improved Crop Condition Raise Improved Crop Condition Raise Yield Expectations Yield Expectations

农作物状况改善增加了对单产的预期农作物状况改善增加了对单产的预期

U.S. Cotton YieldsU.S. Cotton Yields 美国棉花单产美国棉花单产

U.S. Abandonment U.S. Abandonment 美国弃收面积美国弃收面积

Percent of Planted Area not Harvested Percent of Planted Area not Harvested 种植面积弃收比例种植面积弃收比例

U.S. Cotton SupplyU.S. Cotton Supply 美国棉花供给美国棉花供给

Increased Supply will be ExportedIncreased Supply will be Exported增加供给将满足出口增加供给将满足出口

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Exports Ending Stocks

World Supply and DemandWorld Supply and Demand世界棉花供求状况世界棉花供求状况

Million Metric TonsMillion Metric Tons （百万公吨）（百万公吨）2008/09 2009/10 2010/11

% Change变化 %

Beginning Stocks期初库存 13.21 13.18 10.36 -21.4%

Production 产量 23.33 22.24 25.44 14.4%

Imports进口 6.55 7.88 8.33 5.7%

Total Supply总供给 43.09 43.30 44.13 1.9%

Exports出口 6.56 7.76 8.33 7.3%

Use使用 23.94 25.63 26.32 2.7%

Ending Stocks期末库存 13.18 10.36 9.93 -4.2%Stock to Use %库存 -使用比 55% 40% 38%

Production Outside United StatesProduction Outside United States其他国家棉花生产其他国家棉花生产

World Consumption Expected to World Consumption Expected to Continue to RecoverContinue to Recover

世界棉花消费将持续恢复世界棉花消费将持续恢复

World Cotton Ending StocksWorld Cotton Ending Stocks世界棉花期末库存世界棉花期末库存

World Import Demand UpWorld Import Demand Up世界棉花进口需求增加世界棉花进口需求增加

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China

Others

Vietnam

Thailand

Indonesia

Pakistan

Turkey

Mexico

Exportable Supplies Remain Tight in Exportable Supplies Remain Tight in Major ExportersMajor Exporters

主要出口商出口供应持续紧张主要出口商出口供应持续紧张

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India

FZA

CIS

Syria

Greece

Egypt

Australia

Thank YouThank You谢谢谢谢

The EndThe End

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