developing trends: april 2013 - world...

Developing Trends: April 2013

Overview

Developing Trends was prepared by the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) of the World Bank. The team is coordinated by Allen

Dennis (Overview and Trade), and is comprised of Tehmina Khan (High-Income, Industrial Production and Business sentiment), Eung Ju Kim (High-

income and Finance), John Baffes and Damir Cosic (Commodities), and Sanket Mohapatra (Exchange rate) Ekaterine Vashakmadze (Inflation), and

Adil Islam (Statistical Annex). The report was prepared under the guidance of Andrew Burns.

This note reflects the views of the team, but is not formally cleared by the World Bank Group.

The expansion of real side activity in the global economy continued through February (latest data), albeit at a different pace across regions. Global industrial production expanded at an annualized pace of 4.3 percent in the three months to February from 3.6 percent in January. This expansion in industrial produc-tion has been supported by the solid expansion in global trade that has been occurring since November 2012. Indeed, in February, the pace of expansion in global trade (14.6%, 3m/3m saar) was at about four times that of the expansion of industrial production. Among high-income countries, industrial production accelerated, boosted by strong real-side activity in the United States and in particular Japan. In Japan, latest figures show the growth of industrial production in February and exports in March increased by over 10 percentage points each, suggesting that the sharp yen depreciation (19% in real effective ex-change rate terms between September and March, following announcement of monetary stimulus

measures) appears to be lending support to Japan’s export-oriented industrial sector. In contrast to the accelerating pace of real-side activity in high-income countries, developing-country industrial production decelerated in February, though still expanding at a still relatively robust pace (6.3%, 3m/3m saar). How-ever, this belies the influence of China, as excluding China, developing country industrial production growth was flat in February.

After the strengthening of real-side activity observed in Q1 2013, the global economy is likely to hit a soft patch in Q2 2013. Weakening business sentiment indicators towards the end of March and in April sug-gest economic activity could be weaker in Q2 compared to the rebound in Q1. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the World Bank’s Global Purchasing Manager’ Index (PMI) fell in March to 50.8 (i.e. barely above the expansion threshold of 50) from its most recent post-rebound peak of 51.3 in January. First estimate releases of PMI’s in April for the US, Euro Area economies and China lend further credence to a likely de-

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-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13

Developing

High-income

World

Global industrial production rebounds in Q1 2013.

Source: World Bank and Datastream

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13

Euro Area United States China Japan

With exception of Japan, business sentiment is generally weakening in Q2

(Purchasing Manager Index, 50-mark is neutral level)

Source: World Bank and Haver Analytics

April 24, 2013

Developing Trends: April 2013

celeration in economic activity in Q2. In the US, Markit’s manufacturing PMI for April fell to its lowest level in six-months, suggesting that earlier payroll tax hikes and the sequestration effects are impacting economic activity. Further, the uptick in US initial unemployment claims in April to some 360,000 from about 345,000 in March also reflects a weaker labor market in April. Similarly, first estimate April PMI’s released for Germany and France, the two largest Euro Area economies, fell, with both signaling contracting activity. And among developing countries, for the first time in three months China’s PMI declined in April to 50.8, weighed down in particular by weaker contracting new export orders sub-index. Given China’s role as an exporter of final goods, weaker exports there implies less demand for inputs from the several other developing countries inte-grated in East Asian production networks. Japan, whose rebound has lagged the global cyclical rebound, is however likely to remain the exception in terms of Q2 real-side activity among large economies, as aggressive monetary stimulus measures being implemented there are likely to continue impacting real-side activity at least in the short-run.

Financial markets have eased somewhat in recent weeks. Stock markets have been volatile in April, however in both the US, Germany and among developing countries, news of softening economic activity and earnings has led to a pull-back in stocks. After reaching fresh high’s in early April, US stocks have fallen by 0.5%. Ger-many’s DAX index is down 4.3% and the Emerging Market bench mark MSCI index is down some 2.2% in April. Japan, once again remains an exception as its monetary stimulus measures has led its TOPIX index to soar to a post-recession high (since mid-November, the index has surged some 60%, adding about $787 bil-lion to the market valuation). Notwithstanding the weakness in developing country equity markets, G3 mon-etary stimulus measures and better stronger growth prospects continue to support capital flows to developing countries. Preliminary data for April suggest that bond flows have been robust with Russian companies selling record high hard-currency global bonds and Turkey, Ukraine, and Lebanon all raising more than $1 billion through sovereign bond issues.

...and all major commodity prices are on a downward trend. Weakening demand side pressures, as the global economy enters a soft patch, coupled with more favorable supply-side conditions are contributing to the broad decline in metals, oil and agricultural commodity prices. Since mid-February metal prices have been declining. Prices of tin, copper, nickel, and aluminum have declined by 17.4%, 15.4%, 13.8% and 10.3%, re-spectively, from their mid-February peaks to the 3rd week of April. Oil prices have also dropped (Brent by 18.1% and WTI by 9.5%) since mid-February. For agricultural commodity prices, better than expected global stocks reported by the United States Department of Agriculture led to a decline in grain prices, and weaker demand from China also led to a decline in some industrial agricultural raw materials prices (e.g. cotton and rubber).

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-10

-8

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-2

0

Brent Oil Nickel Copper Rubber Aluminium Maize Cotton

Commodity prices have been declining since Mid-February

(%ch in price since mid-February)

Source: World Bank and Datastream

‐4.5

‐2.0

0.5

3.0

5.5

8.0

10.5

13.0

Emergingmarkets

U.S. Germany Japan

Global stocks markets eased in April with the exception of Japan

(% change in stock marke index between April 1 and 19)

Source: Bloomberg

April 24, 2013

High income (1)

Output in high-income economies showed signs of mending in Q1 2013 after a weak Q4 2012

Output growth in high income economies, out-side the Euro Area, accelerated to an annualized 4.6% (3m/3m) pace in February, from 2.7% in January. That said, Eurozone output fell at a slower pace in February (-0.4% vs –5.1% in Feb-ruary 3m/3m saar) reflecting similar underlying trends in Germany, France and Italy .

US IP momentum picked up to 5.0% in March from 4.7% the prior month while in Japan, the pace of growth turned strongly positive at 10.2% after being roughly flat in January.

US core capital orders growth, a proxy for future investment, eased to 9.6% (q/q saar) in Q1 down from 14.3% in Q4 last year.

However, recent data suggest that activity is slowing in the US

Recent US data indicate slower consumer de-mand due to fiscal tightening currently underway. Retail sales fell by 0.5% (m/m sa) in March, after a 1.2% gain in February, and were up by 4.1% (q/q saar) in Q1 compared to 5.6% in Q4.

The labor market has also softened, with US hir-ing falling to its slowest pace in a year in March. Meanwhile, flash Markit manufacturing PMI esti-mates fell to their lowest level in 6 months in April indicating a marked slowdown in activity and domestic new orders.

In Japan activity and sentiment data show strong improvements supported by a weaker yen and aggressive monetary easing. Retail sales rose by 4.4% (3m/3m saar) in February vs 1.4% in January, while exports fell by -1.0% (3m/3m saar) in March compared to -12.6% in February.

Similarly, sentiment data suggest renewed weak-ness in the Euro Area

Retail sales growth became less negative in Feb-ruary in the Eurozone (-1.3% 3m/3m saar, vs a November low of -6.2%), helped by modest growth in Germany (up 1.3%). Euro Area exports also improved, up 5.4% annualized in January and 2.8% in Italy in February.

However sustained falls in manufacturing PMIs from January highs indicate fresh weakness ahead, including in Germany. Meanwhile record unemployment, tight credit and fiscal consolida-tion continue to weigh on domestic demand in the periphery economies, with April PMI data showing continued sharp contractions in activity.

Activity picked up in high-income economies, led by the US and Japan. Output in the Euro Area continued to contract in February, but at a slower pace, reflecting similar trends in the core Euro zone economies. Howev-er, forward looking sentiment data indicate a slower pace of activity in the second quarter in the US as fiscal tightening takes a toll. Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI) show a sustained deterioration in Euro Area busi-ness sentiment since January, and a renewed downturn in German service and manufacturing activity.

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5

10

15

-80

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80

May-07 Jan-08 Sep-08 May-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12

USAEuro Area [Right]Japan [Right]

High-income industrial production3m/3m saar, Percent

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and Datastream Last updated: Apr. 22, 2013

3m/3m saar, Percent

40

44

48

52

56

60

64

Jan-10Apr-10Jul-10Oct-10Jan-11Apr-11Jul-11Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-12Jan-13Apr-13

Euro AreaUSAJapanGermanyItaly50-line

Manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI)Diffusion Index

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and Markit Last updated: Apr. 22, 2013

April 24, 2013 page 1

High income (2)

Japanese stock continued to rally in April while U.S. and German equities pulled back.

Strong demand for Japanese stocks following the announcement of unprecedented monetary eas-ing polices pushed the Topix to the highest level since September 2008 in April—the index surged 60% from mid-November, adding about $787 billion in market valuation.

U.S. stocks were resilient in early-April with both the S&P 500 and Dow reaching fresh highs. But they have pulled back slightly since then on weak earnings and economic trends.

German’s DAX considerably underperformed its G3 counterparts as investors remain worried over the country’s and other EU member’s economic outlooks. The index has dropped 4.1% thus far

Credit default swap spreads for troubled Euro-Area economies have remained steady in April.

CDS spreads for Spain and Italy have narrowed 46 and 45 basis points (bps) thus far this month de-spite lingering political gridlock in Italy since February election. And their current spreads stand between 345 and 313 bps below record levels reached in June last year.

Spreads for Portugal are currently at 397bps, down from this year’s high of 448 bps reached in early-January. Compared to Italy and Spain, the extent of spread narrowing in Portugal was rela-tively small.

Spreads for Slovenia rose () bps recently amid speculation that the country might seek an inter-national bailout.

Borrowing costs for Italy, Spain, and Portugal have tumbled this month.

The benchmark 10-year yields on Italian and Spanish government bonds have fallen by 70 bps and 57 bps thus far April as the Japan’s huge stim-ulus plan boosted investor’s appetite for higher yielding debt.

The 10-year borrowings costs for Italy and Spain reached 2 1/2 year lows of 4.061% and 4.491% respectively on April 22 following the re-election of Italy’s president.

Meanwhile, comparable Portuguese bond yields have tumbled () bp this month, falling below 6% for the first time since late January on April 22.

Japanese equities have remained robust in April, with the benchmark Topix reaching the highest level since September 2008. Meanwhile, U.S. and German stocks have eased in April on weak economic trends. The cost of insuring Italian and Spanish debt have dropped considerably this month. Furthermore, borrowing costs for Italy, Spain, and Portugal have tumbled as Japan’s unprecedented stimulus plan increased investor’s appetite for higher yielding debt

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

Jan-10Apr-10Jul-10Oct-10Jan-11Apr-11Jul-11Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-12Jan-13Apr-13

PortugalIrelandSpainItalyBelgium

Daily CDS Sov ereign rates since Jan 1 2011Basis points


70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13

S&P-500 (USA)DAX (Germany)Topix (Japan)

G-3 equity marketsIndex, January 1 2010=100


3

4

5

6

7

8

Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13

Daily borrowing costs for governemnt debt

(10-year government bond yield, Percent)

Italy

Spain

Source: Bloomberg and Development Prospects Group

April 24, 2013

Industrial Activity

Global IP growth has strengthened, supported by mo-mentum acceleration in high income economies Developing country IP growth eased, as growth in

China was softer than expected on a seasonally adjusted annualized (saar) basis in the first quar-ter.

Output growth in high-income countries contin-ued to strengthen, driven by above trend expan-sion in the United States and other high income countries outside the Euro Area. US IP growth stood at 5% (saar) in the first quarter.

In Japan, output has started a robust recovery after a weak performance in the second half of 2012, posting a 10.2 percent growth in the three months leading to February. Meanwhile in the Euro Area ,output shows signs of stabilization, and was relatively flat in the three months lead-ing to February.

IP output disappointed in EAP excluding China and showed signs of bottoming out in LAC IP growth has turned negative in developing East

Asia excluding China in the first quarter of 2013, following robust growth in the fourth quarter, in part due to the Lunar New Year effect. In China growth in IP was also softer in the first quarter, at 10.2 percent (saar) down from a robust 13.1 per-cent in the fourth quarter.

The contraction in IP growth appears to be stabi-lizing in LAC, as output in Brazil gathered pace expanding at a still weak 1.2 percent in the three months leading to February while output in Mex-ico continued to contract.

IP momentum has improved in South Asia, MENA and South Africa but weakened in ECA Momentum in Europe and Central Asia weakened

considerably in February with output falling by 3.5% (3m/3m saar). Momentum has stabilized in Russia, where output expanded 1.4% in Q1 2013, but has weakened considerably in Turkey to a negative 12.6 percent in the three months to Feb-ruary.

Output growth has stabilized in South Asia at 8.7% in the three months to February, with growth in India of above 5% since December 2013. Elsewhere in South Asia, has accelerated markedly to 24.8% in the three months to Febru-ary.

Lagged data for Sub-Saharan Africa and MENA show continued sharp contractions. South Africa ‘s output was flat in the three months to February.

Global industrial production consolidated the gains made earlier in the year, supported by a surprisingly strong outturn in the US and notwithstanding a disappointing performance in the East Asia region, excluding China. Growth in China has slowed in line with softer overall growth, to a low-double digit expansion pace, Output is expanding at a brisk pace in South Asia and South Africa., but is contracting at a varied pace in Eu-rope and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Middle East and North Africa.

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2006 2008 2010 2012

Developing Countries High Income Countries World

Global IP growth strengthens on stronger growth in high-income countriespercent, 3m/3m saar

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0

20

40

60

Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13

China EAP, excluding China ECA LAC, excluding Mexico Mexico

Growth eases in EAP, LAC and ECAPercent, 3m/3m saar

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0

20

40

Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13

Sub-Saharan Africa excl SouthAfrica

South AfricaIndia

Middle East and North AfricaSouth Asia, excluding India

Growth stabilizes in India and rebounds sharply in other South Asia countries

Percent, 3m/3m saar

April 24, 2013

Business Sentiment

Global Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s survey indices (PMI) eased in February Growth in global manufacturing was maintained

in March, with the JP Morgan Global Manufactur-ing output PMI inching up to 52.1 from 51.8 in February.

Business sentiment in the US was more downcast in March according to the ISM index which fell to 51.3 from 54.2 the previous month, although the Markit PMI showed a modest improvement.

Confidence strengthened considerably in Japan with the PMI rising to 50.4 in March from 48.5. and it also improved in Korea and Taiwan.

Sentiment weakened considerably in the Euro Area with the PMI falling 1.2 points to a 5-month low in March of 46.8. Within the EU sentiment worsened considerably in Germany, Italy, and Spain.

PMIs signal expanding factory output in developing East Asian economies and contraction in Europe and Central Asia Business sentiment in emerging Asia improved,

driven by better outlooks In China (+1.2), Indone-sia (+0.8), and Vietnam (+2.5).

Business sentiment tumbled 4.1 points to 49.3 in South Africa where mining and manufacturing output had suffered due to strikes.

Turkish and Russian PMIs both moved lower by 1.2 points to 52.3 and 50.8, respectively signal-ing output expansion in coming months.

Business sentiment deteriorated in the largest econo-mies in South Asia and Latin America Business confidence eased the LAC region with

sentiment deteriorating in the two largest econo-mies in the region: Brazil (-0.7) and Mexico (-1.2). In both countries however the PMI indexes point to output expansion in coming months albeit at a subdued pace.

Business sentiment in India deteriorated marked-ly (-2.2) but remained above to 50 growth mark that signals continued expansion.

Global business sentiment indexes suggest a slower pace of activity for the second quarter, as fiscal tighten-ing in the US cuts into activity there and capacity constraints in many developing economies serve to moder-ate growth – which should nevertheless continue to expand broadly in line with underlying potential. Senti-ment deteriorated in Euro Area markedly, and also worsened in the United States, while improving somewhat in Japan. Business sentiment has broadly improved in East Asia, but deteriorated in South Asia and Latin America, while tumbling into negative territory in South Africa.

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35

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65

75

Jan '00 Jan '02 Jan '04 Jan '06 Jan '08 Jan '10 Jan '12

Germany Euro area Spain Italy Japan United States

Confidence deteriorates markedly in the Euro AreaDiffusion index

40

45

50

55

60

Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13

ASEAN China Indonesia Russian Federation Turkey Vietnam

Business sentiment improves in East Asia and deteriorates in ECA and South AfricaDiffusion index

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45

50

55

60

Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13

Brazil India Mexico

Business sentiment deteriorates in LAC and SASDiffusion index

April 24, 2013

International Trade (1)

After contracting for several months, global trade is expanding once again.

Consistent with the reduction financial market tensions, real side activity, including trade, has picked up. The cyclical upswing in global trade, which commenced in October 2012 has contin-ued through Q1 2013.

Global imports increased at an annualized 14.6% pace in the three months leading to January 2013. The upturn in activity has been driven by developing countries (18.6% in December and 21.2% in January 2013). Nonetheless, the accel-eration in import demand among high income countries has also been solid (11.9% in January , 3m/3m saar). Further, for the first time since Sep-tember 2011, import growth in the Euro Area has been positive for two consecutive months.

The pick up in import demand among develop-ing countries is broad-based.

Available data suggests that the expansion in developing countries is broad-based. In East Asia and the Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, and South Asia, and Europe and Central Asia, where data is available through at least January 2012, a double-digit acceleration in import de-mand is observed. This is consistent with the strengthening business cycle in their domestic economies—supported by earlier monetary poli-cy easing and stimulus measures (e.g. Brazil).

Though data lags behind, the pick up in import de-mand is likely occurring in Sub Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North Africa. Data for both sub Saharan Africa and the Middle

East and North Africa lag behind. Latest available data for both regions (October 2012) shows a decelerating trend in import demand consistent with the global slowdown that was occurring at that time. Given the pick up observed globally including most developing regions, it is likely that an acceleration in import demand will be record-ed when November or December 2012 data for the region becomes available.

In the largest sub Saharan African economy, South Africa, for instance, where data is available through January 2013, import demand accelerat-ed from minus 12.2 % (3m/3m, saar) in December to 6.2% in January 2013.

After contracting for several months global trade is expanding once again, supported by a strong rebound in both developing country and high-income country imports (including from the Euro Ar-ea). This cyclical uptick in import demand is broadly shared among most developing regions and reflects the strengthening of domestic demand (supported by lower policy rates and stimulus measures) in their economies.

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Jan-10Apr-10Jul-10Oct-10Jan-11Apr-11Jul-11Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-12

WorldHigh incomeDevelopingDeveloping excl. China

Global Import volumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and Datastream Last updated: Feb. 15, 2013

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60

Jan-10Apr-10Jul-10Oct-10Jan-11Apr-11Jul-11Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-12Jan-13

South AsiaSub Saharan AfricaSouth AfricaMiddle East and North Africa

Regional import volumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


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Jan-10Apr-10Jul-10 Oct-10Jan-11Apr-11Jul-11 Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12 Oct-12Jan-13

East Asia & Pacific East Asia & Pacific (ex. China)Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean

Regional Import v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


April 24, 2013

International Trade (2)

The pick up in global economic activity, includ-ing from high income countries is supporting an acceleration in exports from developing coun-tries.

Supported by expanding global economic activi-ty, the acceleration in developing countries ex-ports continued, increasing from 14.6% in De-cember (3m/3m saar) to 17.4% in January. Ex-cluding China, exports are expanding at a 10.7% pace.

Although global economic activity is picking up, the strong expansion of developing countries (excluding China) exports (10.7%) relative to the expansion in their industrial production (3.8%) suggest that external demand is providing a stim-ulus to domestic production.

The expansion in exports is also broad based.

Among developing regions for which data is available through January, the pace of export expansion remains strong, albeit varied across regions. For the three months to January 2013 exports were expanding at a double digit annual-ized pace for East Asia (23.6%) and Europe and Central Asia (11.2%). Reflecting deceleration of export growth in Brazil and India, export growth decelerated to 3.6% in Latin America (from 9.2%) and 8.1% in South Asia (from 11.1%).

Exports in both Sub Saharan Africa and Middle East were hit hard by weakness in 2012.

Data for both Sub Saharan Africa and the Middle East lags behind other developing regions. Latest available for the region is in October 2012, when the headwinds from the global economy was still strong. In both regions, export momentum growth was contracting at an annualized pace of about 26%, the sharpest decline among develop-ing regions during the mid-year slump. In part this reflects the dominance of oil (which is sensi-tive to global demand) in their export basket.

However, unlike MENA, export growth in SSA is likely to rebound along with the global economy (exports for South Africa was up 24.1% in January 2013), however ongoing political challenges in MENA will keep export growth there subdued.

After months of weak economic activity the pick up in the global economy is supporting the expan-sion in developing country exports. The much stronger expansion in developing country (excluding China) exports relative to industrial production suggest that external demand is providing a strong stimulus to domestic economic activity in developing countries. Nonetheless the pace of expansion in developing country exports differs by region.

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Jan-10Apr-10Jul-10Oct-10Jan-11Apr-11Jul-11Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-12

WorldHigh incomeDevelopingDeveloping excl. China

Global export volumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


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East Asia & Pacific East Asia & Pacific (ex. China)Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean

Regional export volumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


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South AsiaSub Saharan AfricaSouth AfricaMiddle East and North Africa

Regional export volumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


April 24, 2013

International Finance (1)

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100

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East Asia & PacificEurope & Central AsiaLatin America & CaribbeanMiddle-East & North Africa

Daily CDS Sov ereign rates since Jan 1 2011Basis points


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100

105

110


MSCI AsiaMSCI EEMSCI LAC

MSCI Regional Equity IndicesIndex (Jan 1, 2011 = 100)


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120


Emerging MarketsDeveloped Markets

MSCI Equity IndicesIndex (Jan 1, 2011 = 100)


Developing-country CDS rates have narrowed this month, due mostly to a sharp drop in Argen-tina spreads.

CDS spreads for developing countries have de-clined by 90 bps on average in April, driven most-ly by a plunge in Argentina spreads, which fell 1,941 bps.

Excluding Argentina, developing-country spreads have narrowed only 6 bps thus far this month.

Meanwhile, Argentina’s new debt swap offer was rejected by holdout creditors on April 19, leaving a U.S. appeal court to decide the country’s fate. An unfavorable U.S. court ruling could push the country into a new sovereign default.

Developing-country equities continued to un-derperform those of developing countries. Developing-country stocks have fallen 2.2% thus

far April—after posting the worst Q1 results since 2008, compared with a 0.1% drop for developed countries.

Developing-country shares have dropped 4.9% this year compared to a 6.4% gain for mature-market equities. In particular, continued strong demand for Japanese stocks pushed their bench-mark indices to the highest level since September 2008.

12-month forward P/E ratios for developing-country shares currently stand at 10.2, compared with the developed market’s 13.3.

Stock markets across developing regions have declined in April.

General weakness was shown among developing country stock markets this year, with Emerging Asian shares faring better than other regions .

Both Emerging Europe and Latin America region-al indices have declined by 4.9% and 2.8% thus far in April, respectively. Meanwhile, Emerging Asia stock markets have lost 1.4%.

Among the BRIC countries, Russia (-5.9%) and Brazil (-2.4%) were the worst performers this month, followed China (-1.8%). In contrast, India posted a small gain (0.4%).

CDS spreads for developing countries have fallen sharply in April, driven mainly by a sharp drop in Argentini-an spreads. Developed-country equities have continued to underperform those of developing economies thus far this month. Stock markets across developing regions further weakened in April, and the BRIC countries were among the worst performers (with an exception of India).

April 24, 2013


There was a global shift in portfolio flows from bonds to equities in 2013Q1.

Strong portfolio inflows to U.S. equities led to a global re-allocation from bonds to equities in 2013Q1. After posting outflows in previous years, inflows to developed-market equity funds surged this year, with investors strongly favoring U.S. and Japanese equities.

But a general shift from bonds to equities seems to be more subtle for developing countries, where the flows into both equity and bond funds broadly increased in Q1. And this shift has been reversed in April, as bond fund continued to post substantial inflows while equity funds experi-enced lingering outflows.

Capital flows declined in March due to a slow-down in bank and equity flows, but year-to-date flows remained robust. Gross capital flows to developing countries fell by

15% to $47 billion in March, as weak bank and equity flows offset rising bond flows—reversing February trend.

But flows for the first quarter of the year amount-ed to $160 billion, up 37% from the like period of 2012, reflecting improving investor sentiment and diminishing intensity of bank deleveraging.

In 2013Q1, bank lending and equity issuance al-most doubled from a year earlier; while bond is-suance activity was down slightly from last year.

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Bond IssuanceEquity IssuanceSyndicated Bank Loans

Gross Capital Flows to Dev eloping Regions$ bil l ion, 3-mon. m.a.


Borrowing cost for developing-country sovereign debt have narrowed slightly in April, bucking the upward trend in the first quarter of 2013. Strong portfolio inflows to developed-market equity funds led to a general shift from bonds to equities in 2013Q1. But a general shift was somewhat subtle for developing countries. Gross capital flows remained strong at $52 billion in 2013Q1 amid strong bank and equity flows.

Borrowing costs for developing-country sover-eign bonds have narrowed slightly this month. Developing-country sovereign spreads have nar-

rowed 12 basis points (bps) thus far April, bucking the upward trend in the first quarter, as investors scrambled to find higher yields in developing-country debt.

The spread rose by 53 bps in 2013Q1 to 307 bps. While the increase in spreads was motivated by a spike in U.S. Treasury yields to a large extent, the reduced risk appetite for developing-country sovereign debt also played a significant role.

The Argentine sovereign bonds continued to be the riskiest debt among developing countries—the country’s spreads rose 368 bps in absolute term in 2013Q1.

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EMEquities

USEquities

OtherDM

Equities

EMBonds

USBonds

OtherDM

Bonds

2011 Avg 2012 Avg 2013 Q1

Source: EPFR and Development Prospects Group

Average monthyl fund inflows, $ billions

Global shift in portfolio flows from bonds to equties

200

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Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13

JP Morgan's EMBIG bond spreads (basis points)

Developing-country bond spreads narrowed slightly

Source: Bloomberg and Development Prospects Group

April 24, 2013


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14


East Asia & PacificEurope & Central AsiaLatin America & CaribbeanMiddle East & North AfricaSouth AsiaSub-Saharan Africa

International Equity Issuance$ billion (3-mon. m.a.)


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14



International Bond Issuance$ billion (3-mon. m.a.)

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and Datast ream Last updated: Apr. 22, 2013

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14



Source: Deallogic, DEC Prospects Group Last updated: Apr. 22, 2013

Bank Lending$ billion (3-mon. m.a.)

Year-to-date equity flows were up significantly.

Equity placements (a combination of IPOs and follow-on issuance) reached $9.5 billion in March, down 15% from February. But year-to-date flows are up 87% to $31 billion from a year before.

The increase in equity flows in the first quarter of 2013 was due to the strong follow-on issuance from East Asia and Latin America and the recov-ery of the overall IPO activity from last year’s sub-dued level.

While China continued to dominate overall equi-ty volume in 2013Q1, equity issuance also in-creased in other countries, including Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico.

Bond flows were stable in 2013Q1, but the re-gional mix of bonds issued changed.

Bond issuance rose 17% to $19 billion in March, after tumbling 55% in February. And year-to-date bond flows were broadly steady at $73 billion, down only 2% from a year before.

Emerging Europe accounted for the largest re-gional share of total bond volume in Q1 (36%), with strong issuance from Russia and Ukraine. Historically Latin America dominated bond vol-ume in Q1 (47% of 2007-2012 volume).

Preliminary data suggest that bond flows have been robust in April with Russian companies sell-ing record hard-currency global bonds and Tur-key, Ukraine, and Lebanon all raising more than $1 billion through sovereign bond issuance.

Bank lending is down sharply in March, but Q1 volume more than doubled from a year before.

Syndicated bank loans to developing countries jumped to an estimated $19 billion in March, down sharply from about $28 billion in Febru-ary—which was boosted by the $14.2 billion loan to the Russian oil company Rosneft.

However, bank flows more than doubled year-on-year to $56 billion in 2013Q1 despite the a 305 drop in the number of syndicated loan deals.

Most of the increase was led by large loans to Russia, where lending rose nearly five fold from a year before to the highest quarterly volume since 2008Q1. This likely reflects the diminishing inten-sity of European bank deleveraging. Indeed, Eu-ropean lender lent $7.8 billion to Russia in 2013Q1, up sharply from $1.7 billion a year earli-er.

Equity flows remained resilient in the first quarter of 2013 with the strong issuance activity from East Asian and Latin American companies. Bond flows were broadly steady in 2013Q1 with Emerging Europe accounting for a lion share of total bond volume. Preliminary data indicate bond flows have been strong in April. Bank lending more than doubled from a year before in 2013Q1, mainly driven by the mega loans to Russia.

April 24, 2013

Commodities (1)

Oil prices weaken, Brent down 18.1%; WTI down 9.5% since the mid-February peaks. After topping at $119/bbl in mid-February, Brent

(the international marker) has reversed course and by mid-April it dropped below $100/bbl for the first time since July 2012. In addition to better supplies and estimates of weaker demand, an-nouncements of ending of accommodative mon-etary policy (QE, zero interest rates) weighted on prices.

WTI price (US mid-continent price), has fallen less than Brent as producers are by-passing Cush-ing, Oklahoma and transporting oil directly to refineries in the Gulf by train, in turn strengthen-ing WTI prices relative to Brent. The gap between Brent and WTI narrowed to US$ 10/bbl by mid-April 2013, the lowest level in 6 months.

Metal prices have accelerated their negative trend in April.

Metal prices have reversed course since mid-February and most are down on a year-to-date basis. Prices of tin, nickel, copper and aluminum have declined by 17.4%, 15.4%, 13.8% and 10.3%, respectively, from their mid-February peaks to the 3rd week of April.

Most base metals are in surplus for 2013 which is likely to exert downside pressure on prices. Cop-per and aluminum are well supplied as evidenced by large stocks at the London and Shanghai Met-als Exchanges (10% and 4% of annual consump-tion for aluminum and copper respectively).

Combined stocks of copper at the two exchanges have increased by 57% in the first three months of the year.

Precious metals prices experienced their sharpest decline in 30 years.

Precious metals have been on the decline since beginning of 2012Q4 and price of silver, gold and platinum are down 22.3%, 16.1% and 6.2%, re-spectively for the year. Precious metals experi-enced some of the sharpest loses on the record on April 15.

In addition to diminishing concerns regarding inflationary pressures, the announcement of po-tential sales of gold by Cyprus’ central bank pre-cipitated liquidation of gold holdings by institu-tional investors’ (ETFs). Holdings of gold by ETFs are down (10.2% year-to-date), while silver and platinum are up 2.8% and 12%, respectively, as the latter have some industrial use.

Most industrial commodities (crude oil and metals) and precious metals are sharply down on positive news on the supply side and disappointing economic data from the US and China as signs on a possible stalling in global recovery accumulate.

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13

BrentWest-Texas Intermediate

Oil pricesUSD per barrel


80

90

100

110

120

130

140


TinCopperNickelAluminium

Metals PricesIndex, January 2012=100


1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600


GoldPlatinumSilver (right axis)

US cents/troy ouncePrecious Metal Prices

US$/troy ounce

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and Handy&Harman Last updated: Apr. 22, 2013

April 24, 2013

Commodities (2)

Maize and wheat supply outlook improves; rice market remains well-supplied.

In its April 10, 2013 update, the USDA reported an improved outlook for the 2012/13 global grain crop, mostly a reflection of higher than ex-pected actual US stocks. The stock-to-use ratio (S/U) for maize reached 14.5%, one percentage point higher than the April update, still low by historical standards.

Wheat supplies improved as well. The S/U ratio for that market is expected at 27.1% at the end of 2012/13, still lower from last season’s 28.6%.

The rice market is well supplied with production and consumption being close to balance at 468 million tons and the S/U ratio slightly exceeding 22%. Exports reached a record high during 2012, driven mostly by China.

Grain prices declined sharply following USDA’s actual quarterly stock report.

Grain prices declined sharply after USDA an-nounced higher than expected actual quarterly stocks on March. Maize and wheat were traded at 650 and 700 US cents per bushel in mid-April, only marginally higher than their pre-2012 drought induced spike. Rice prices have been re-markably stable during the past few months fluc-tuating very little, around US$550 per ton.

Although global wheat and maize markets are still subjected to upside price risks, the probabil-ity of such risks materializing is low as the 2012/13 season is coming slowly to a close. Early indications for the 2013/14 US crop point to bet-ter supplies, according to the planting intentions report issued on March.

After increasing for 4 consecutive months, cotton prices ease; rubber prices weaken further on im-proved supply conditions; edible oil prices weak-en as well.

After reaching a 4-month high in March due to aggressive purchases by China—whose cotton stocks currently stand at 8 million tons, almost half of global stocks—cotton prices have been easing. Natural rubber prices have been weaken-ing as well due to good supplies and easing of crude oil prices—natural rubber competes with synthetic rubber, which uses crude oil as a key input.

Separately, the edible oil index declined almost 2.5% in March, to reach a 14-month low. Global edible oil production is expected to reach yet an-other record in 2012/13.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported an upbeat outlook for the 2012-13 crop in its April 10 update following a higher than expected actual stock report in March. An early glimpse of the 2013/14, based on the March planting intentions survey indicates improved US grain supplies. Most grain prices de-clined sharply. Raw material prices continued their slide; edible oil prices weakened as well.

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13

WheatMaize

Grain pricesUS$ per metric tonne

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and CME Last updated: Apr. 22, 2013

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.6

4.0

4.4

Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13

Cotton [Left]Rubber [Right]

Raw material pricesUS$ per kilogram

Source: World Bank Prospects Group, ICE and SGX Last updated: Apr. 22, 2013

US$ per kilogram

25%

26%

27%

28%

29%

30%

13%

14%

15%

16%

17%

18%

2011/12 JUN AUG OCT DEC FEB APR

Marked imptrovements in both maize and wheat markets(stock‐to‐use ratio, update for 2012/13, percent)

Maize (left axis)

Wheat (right axis)

Source: US Department of Agriculture (April 10, 2013)

April 24, 2013

Exchange Rates

Expansionary monetary policy in Japan caused the yen to depreciate 19% in REER terms since September 2012. The euro appreciated 4.1% and the US dollar by 2.3% in the same period.

Expansionary monetary policies to counter a dec-ade-long deflation and support economic growth, including a newly announced large asset purchase program and a 2% inflation target, caused the Japanese yen to depreciate 19% in real effective exchange rate (REER) terms be-tween September 2012 and March 2013.

In the same period, the US dollar appreciated 2.3% in REER terms and the euro by 4.1%. The Euro has appreciated by a stronger 7.5% since July 2012 after ECB head Mario Draghi’s promise to stand behind the currency union.

Developing-country REER appreciation picked pace in recent months due to capital inflows, yen depreciation, or a combination of both.

Emerging market currencies appreciated in REER terms in recent months as financial market stabi-lization and US quantitative easing (QE) pushed capital flows towards high-yielding emerging market assets, and yen depreciation put upward pressure on Japan’s trade-partner currencies.

The GDP-weighted average REER for developing countries appreciated by 3.7% since September 2012, a considerably faster pace compared with the 1.5% appreciation in the previous 24 months.

East Asian trade-partners of Japan have faced sharp REER appreciation since September 2012, particularly Thailand (10.2%), China (5.6%), South Korea (5.5%), and Indonesia (4.5%).

The South African rand and Indian rupee were exceptions to the trend of real appreciation of developing-country currencies since Sept. 2012.

The Brazilian real and Russian ruble appreciated 7.6% and 4.6% from robust capital inflows, de-spite a recent easing of commodity prices. The Mexican peso also benefited (1.8% REER appreci-ation) from inflows into government bonds.

The Turkish lira continued to strengthen in REER terms (5.7% since September) with a stable nomi-nal effective exchange rate (NEER) and large in-flation differential with trade-partner countries.

The Indian rupee stabilized somewhat in trade-weighted effective terms on improved inflows, despite growth concerns and a wider current ac-count deficit. However, the South African rand continued to weaken with slower growth (partly related to earlier mining sector tensions).

Japan’s expansionary monetary policies caused the yen to depreciate by 19% in trade-weighted real effective exchange rate (REER) terms since September 2012. The euro appreciated 4.1% in REER terms and the US dol-lar by 2.3% in this period. The appreciation of developing-country currencies also picked up pace (3.7% since September 2012), reflecting both a surge in capital inflows and yen depreciation, notwithstanding a recent easing of crude oil and industrial commodity prices for commodity-exporting countries.

80

85

90

95

100

105

110


JapanUSAEuro Area

High income real effectiv e exchange ratesIndex, Jan 2011 = 100


75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110


Brazil ChinaIndia IndonesiaMexico RussiaTurkey South Africa

Dev eloping nominal effectiv e exchange rateIndex, Jan 2011 = 100


80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115


Brazil ChinaIndia IndonesiaMexico RussiaTurkey South Africa

Dev eloping real effectiv e exchange rateIndex, Jan 2011 = 100


April 25, 2013

Inflation

Despite moderate global inflation, within-the-year inflation patterns vary considerably Inflation ticked down in developing countries as a

whole to 6.2 percent annualized rate in the three months to March reflecting a decline in commod-ity prices and moderation in economic activity after a string rebound.

High-income country inflation eased in the first quarter of 2013 to 3% annualized rate on weak consumer sentiment and easing energy prices.

Following a massive fall-off in inflation rates low-income country inflation momentum accelerated in the last quarter of 2012 due to grain price re-lated hike.

Inflation momentum accelerated in EAP led by Indo-nesia, but eased in ECA and LAC regions Inflation is broadly in-check across the EAP re-

gion but accelerated in Indonesia due to capacity constraints and trade related measures. China’s inflation eased to a 3.3% annualized pace in Q1 from 3.6% in Q4, partly due to curbs on spending. Inflation remains in-check in Malaysia and Thai-land reflecting currency appreciation.

Inflation moderated in ECA responding to easing food prices and tight monetary stance, especially in Russia. In Turkey however inflation momentum has accelerated responding to policy easing.

Inflation eased in LAC following an earlier grain price related hike but remains high in Argentina reflecting lose policy stance and trade re-strictions and in Venezuela reflecting strong de-valuation. Brazil started to tighten its monetary policy stance to curb Inflationary pressures re-flecting supply bottlenecks.

Inflation momentum was on an upward trajectory in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and MENA over the last quarter of 2012 following an earlier steep decline related to moderating commodity prices South Africa experienced acceleration in inflation

momentum on fiscal relaxation, currency depre-ciation and private sector wage hikes. A lagged pass-through of global grain price increase into local food price inflation as well as floods in Ni-geria pushed inflation momentum up in Sub-Saharan Africa in Q42012.

Recent monetary easing is likely to further exac-erbate price pressures in South Asia and add to accelerating inflation momentum.

Inflation momentum accelerated in MENA re-flecting supply disruptions and other domestic factors.

Inflationary pressures eased in both high income and developing economies, reflecting some moderation in activity following a strong rebound as well as commodity price moderation. However, price pressures are building in selected regions due to local factors., including Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and MENA. In ad-dition, inflation pressures remain at or above the targeted rates in a number of large countries, including Bra-zil, Indonesia, India, Russia and Turkey in many cases reflecting supply side constraints.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9


Developing CPI inflationHigh-income CPI inflation

Dev eloping and high income inflationPercent change, 3m/3m saar

Source: World Bank Prospects Group Last updated: Apr. 22, 2013

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13

Middle East & North Africa excl. Iran and SyriaSouth AsiaSouth AfricaSSA excl. South Africa

MENA, SAS & SSA inflationPercent change, 3m/3msaar


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13

ChinaEAP excl. ChinaEurope & Central AsiaLatin America & Car ibbean

EAP, ECA & LAC inflationPercent change, 3m/3m saar


April 24, 2013

Average 2012 2012 20131999-09 2010 2011 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec Jan Feb

World 1.9 8.9 4.3 2.4 5.4 0.3 0.2 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.5High - in c ome cou n tries 0.3 8.0 2.5 0.5 2.5 -1.0 -2.8 -2.5 0.1 0.6 -0.1 0.6

Industrial countries 0.3 7.7 2.2 0.4 2.1 -0.9 -2.8 -2.8 0.1 0.7 -0.1 0.6United States 0.2 5.7 3.4 3.6 5.4 2.9 0.3 2.3 1.2 0.1 -0.1 1.1Japan -1.0 16.6 -2.3 -1.0 5.1 -7.7 -15.8 -7.2 -1.4 2.4 0.3 0.6Euro Area 0.1 6.3 3.1 -2.3 -2.7 -1.7 0.0 -7.8 -0.8 0.8 -0.3 0.3United Kingdom -1.0 2.1 -0.7 -2.3 -0.5 -3.6 2.3 -8.3 0.0 1.1 -1.3 1.0

Other high income 0.3 7.7 2.2 0.4 2.1 -0.9 -2.8 -2.8 0.1 0.7 -0.1 0.6Hong Kong (China) -3.7 3.4 0.8 -0.8 1.2 -5.9 8.8 1.9 0.0 -0.2 .. ..Singapore 5.6 29.6 7.9 0.2 16.9 -0.3 -20.8 8.1 1.4 7.0 -9.2 -0.7Taiwan (China) 3.4 26.9 5.0 -0.1 7.1 0.3 5.0 5.6 0.4 -0.8 0.7 -0.5

Dev elopin g cou n tries 6.4 10.6 7.4 5.5 10.2 2.4 5.1 6.7 1.4 0.0 0.6 0.3East Asia and Pacific 11.7 14.5 11.6 9.2 15.9 4.2 8.4 14.4 1.2 0.9 0.1 0.5

China 13.7 15.5 13.7 10.0 12.1 4.7 10.1 13.1 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.8Indonesia 3.4 4.7 4.0 4.1 9.1 -0.3 -0.6 40.1 -1.8 1.5 0.5 0.3Thailand 8.6 14.6 -9.1 2.3 253.1 23.9 -13.0 8.8 10.0 -4.5 -0.8 -1.4Malaysia 4.7 7.2 1.2 4.2 12.1 -4.8 0.4 16.1 0.9 -2.0 -0.3 -1.2

Europe and Central Asia 3.4 9.4 6.3 2.2 5.2 -2.4 1.3 1.7 5.6 -4.3 0.9 0.8Russian Federation 4.1 8.3 4.8 2.5 8.6 -3.2 2.6 -1.5 0.6 -0.6 -0.5 1.3Turkey 2.8 12.9 10.2 2.6 1.9 -2.0 -1.6 7.4 19.7 -13.3 4.1 0.5Poland 6.3 10.8 7.1 1.8 -3.4 -2.1 0.0 -2.0 -0.9 -1.4 1.3 -1.0Czech Republic 3.0 8.1 6.0 -0.7 -3.1 -1.4 -4.7 -9.1 -0.7 1.0 -0.1 1.6

Latin America and Caribbean 1.4 6.6 3.2 0.4 1.4 -0.9 3.2 -2.3 -0.5 -1.0 1.9 -0.6Brazil 2.4 10.6 0.4 -2.7 -3.5 -3.1 4.9 -0.2 -1.4 0.1 2.6 -2.5Mexico 1.2 6.1 4.0 3.4 5.6 1.9 2.6 -3.1 0.8 -1.9 1.3 0.5Argentina 2.3 9.2 4.6 -2.6 -4.4 -9.0 2.5 -3.4 -1.4 1.0 -0.5 2.1Colombia 1.9 3.9 4.8 -0.1 0.4 -4.4 5.1 -8.7 -2.8 -1.1 2.1 ..

Middle East and North Africa 1.8 1.6 -9.9 3.2 12.8 11.9 -7.2 -16.8 -1.0 -0.3 .. ..Saudi Arabia 0.1 7.9 6.3 4.0 14.0 -6.8 -10.1 -4.1 -1.7 -1.7 .. ..Iran 1.1 1.1 -0.6 -16.9 -17.1 -29.6 -31.2 -16.3 -0.3 2.9 .. ..Egypt .. 10.0 -6.8 5.1 7.7 -3.5 -20.1 32.0 4.2 6.4 -0.3 -0.1Algeria 2.5 -2.8 0.0 -0.5 4.5 -1.4 -0.3 -16.1 0.0 0.1 .. ..

South Asia 7.1 9.9 5.7 1.4 8.6 -4.3 -1.2 8.3 0.6 -0.3 1.7 0.4India 7.3 9.7 4.8 0.7 7.1 -3.7 -1.3 6.9 0.5 -1.1 1.6 0.4Pakistan 5.8 11.0 6.4 1.7 16.9 -17.6 10.5 8.6 3.2 -0.9 2.4 ..Sri Lanka .. 15.1 8.1 -0.6 11.6 -9.3 -17.5 -0.2 1.0 2.2 .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 2.1 4.1 4.0 0.2 -4.1 5.1 4.9 -9.0 4.2 1.5 .. ..South Africa 1.1 4.9 2.4 2.2 5.1 0.4 0.8 5.7 2.5 -2.6 2.1 -3.1Nigeria 0.4 11.2 3.9 -1.2 13.8 16.1 -13.5 -19.9 -4.5 10.9 .. ..

Memo:OECD 0.3 7.7 2.4 0.6 2.3 -0.8 -2.6 -2.6 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.6Developing excl. China 3.0 7.2 2.5 1.6 8.6 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.7 -1.3 0.9 -0.3Developing oil exporters 2.2 5.0 1.2 2.4 7.5 1.1 -0.2 -1.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.6 0.5Dev. non-oil exporters 8.9 12.9 9.7 6.6 11.2 2.8 6.9 9.4 2.1 0.0 1.0 0.3

Table A.1 Global industrial production growth(constant prices; percent; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures which are in percent change over previous month a/)

a In general, series refer to industrial production excluding construction (e.g. manufacturing, mining and utilitites). Where this is not available the closest proxy is used, often manufacturing output or oil output, if the country is a major oil producer.

April 24, 2013

Weight Avg 2012 2013 2012 20131995 1999-09 2010 2011 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Dec Jan Feb Mar

Real GDP

High - in come cou n tries 1.8 2.9 1.6 1.2 0.3 1.0 -0.3 .. .. .. .. ..Industrial countries 1.8 2.7 1.5 0.0 0.3 1.0 -0.5 .. .. .. .. ..

United States 2.0 2.4 1.8 0.0 1.3 3.1 0.4 .. .. .. .. ..Japan 0.5 4.7 -0.5 0.0 -0.9 -3.7 0.2 .. .. .. .. ..Euro Area 1.5 2.0 1.5 0.0 -0.6 -0.2 -2.5 .. .. .. .. ..United Kingdom 2.1 1.8 1.0 0.0 -1.5 3.8 -1.2 .. .. .. .. ..

Real merch an dis e imports High - in come cou n tries 5.2 12.1 8.2 -1.9 -5.8 -5.4 13.5 .. 1.0 2.0 -4.3 ..

Industrial countries 5.2 11.5 8.5 -2.5 -6.3 -6.6 12.3 .. 0.8 2.0 -3.6 ..United States 3.0 14.9 3.8 2.9 6.0 -10.0 1.3 .. -4.0 4.6 -0.7 ..Japan 5.7 17.9 14.7 4.0 11.3 -10.0 -28.2 -30.5 -3.8 -3.5 -2.2 -2.8Euro Area 5.2 3.7 7.8 -9.7 -13.3 -13.7 6.7 .. 0.0 12.3 -7.5 ..United Kingdom 2.9 9.3 5.4 1.3 -1.2 -8.2 12.3 .. 2.8 -2.1 .. ..

Other high income 5.2 11.5 8.5 -2.5 -6.3 -6.6 12.3 .. 2.7 2.1 -9.2 ..Hong Kong (China) 3.0 18.7 4.3 1.2 -9.4 11.2 22.5 .. 2.5 -3.0 -8.0 ..Singapore 5.7 14.6 1.5 3.2 -3.9 -12.8 20.0 -16.7 -3.4 3.7 -6.9 -2.9Taiwan (China) 5.2 35.4 3.9 -2.5 6.9 -0.7 10.8 19.5 4.2 11.7 -11.4 0.4

I mport Prices High - in come cou n tries 1.9 4.9 8.6 0.6 -5.8 -2.6 -3.9 .. -1.8 3.4 0.6 ..

Industrial countries 1.8 5.0 8.6 0.4 -6.6 -2.6 -3.8 .. -1.9 3.6 0.5 ..United States 2.4 6.9 10.9 0.3 -9.9 -0.2 5.1 0.9 -0.4 0.9 -0.5 ..Japan 1.6 7.1 7.4 -0.3 -9.4 -5.4 24.6 37.8 2.0 4.5 2.9 -0.1Euro Area 1.8 7.6 8.7 2.3 -4.3 4.0 0.3 .. -1.0 -0.6 2.2 ..United Kingdom 1.9 5.8 7.9 -0.4 -8.2 0.4 -0.3 4.2 -0.4 1.1 .. ..

Other high income 1.8 5.0 8.6 0.4 -6.6 -2.6 -3.8 .. -0.2 0.8 -0.8 ..Hong Kong (China) 2.4 5.1 7.4 3.2 1.0 -0.4 2.1 -2.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 ..Singapore 1.6 10.5 15.8 0.7 -21.3 2.1 5.1 2.3 0.8 -0.4 4.1 -5.5Taiwan (China) 1.8 7.0 7.7 -1.3 -10.4 -3.7 -7.1 -0.9 -0.7 1.9 -1.4 -1.4

Real effec tiv e ex ch an ge rates a

Euro Area 33.5 1.1 -5.9 1.9 -4.8 -6.6 -6.8 -3.2 2.8 1.3 2.5 1.7 -1.3United States 14.4 -0.9 -3.9 -4.9 3.0 5.7 5.2 -0.1 1.2 -0.7 0.2 1.3 1.1Japan 7.4 -0.2 1.2 1.7 -1.2 2.5 -0.6 -7.6 -17.4 -4.2 -6.8 -3.9 -1.4United Kingdom 5.4 -1.4 3.6 1.4 5.2 6.3 7.6 5.4 -0.2 -0.4 -2.0 -2.4 -0.4Canada 3.5 1.8 10.2 2.0 -0.3 -2.4 0.2 2.8 -1.0 0.3 0.0 -1.5 -1.6Hong Kong (China) 3.5 -3.0 -3.8 -4.2 3.5 4.4 5.6 1.7 3.0 -1.1 -0.7 1.0 0.1Korea, Rep. 2.5 -0.1 8.5 2.6 -0.6 -4.1 -2.2 4.5 5.5 0.8 1.4 0.3 -0.5Singapore 2.3 -0.7 3.4 5.5 4.6 3.8 3.9 7.5 6.8 0.2 0.7 1.3 -0.2Taiwan (China) 2.1 -2.5 3.8 0.3 -2.0 -2.5 -2.1 -0.3 -1.0 0.0 0.4 -0.9 0.4Switzerland 1.7 0.1 5.8 9.7 -3.1 -2.2 -9.0 -2.1 -4.6 -0.3 -2.1 0.5 -0.5

Table A.2 Demand conditions in high-income countries(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change)

a/ JP Morgan Trade Weighted Indices (Real, Broad basis). Data are averages of monthly data for the period in question.

April 24, 2013

Average 2012 2013 2012 20131999-08 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Dec Jan Feb Mar

Policy RatesUnited States 3.44 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12Japan 0.33 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30Euro Area .. 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00United Kingdom 4.80 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50

Ten year bon dUnited States 4.70 4.28 4.07 4.25 3.91 2.94 0.79 0.75 0.70 2.89 3.07 3.17 3.16Japan 1.49 1.49 1.34 1.17 1.12 0.88 2.90 2.22 2.76 0.73 0.78 0.74 0.60Euro Area .. 4.36 4.03 3.79 4.31 3.44 1.66 1.82 2.02 2.10 2.40 2.86 3.03United Kingdom 4.77 4.49 3.66 3.58 3.06 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.85 2.04 2.11 1.90

Spreads (Bas is poin ts ) b ,c

Dev elopin g cou n tries .. 483 296 323 329 364 315 272 269 264 251 271 284East Asia and Pacific .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..China 82 126 77 193 218 259 185 156 146 152 140 150 147Indonesia .. 481 218 225 228 264 230 184 197 184 177 203 212Phillippines .. 340 206 200 177 211 165 124 138 127 123 143 147Malaysia 129 230 140 145 152 175 149 109 112 103 99 115 122

Europe and Central Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Russian Federation 262 443 229 259 255 297 232 184 177 172 158 181 192Turkey 404 367 221 260 281 328 249 197 195 179 174 199 211Poland 99 222 156 210 192 232 163 122 121 112 109 126 129

Latin America and Caribbean 522 522 345 353 345 371 337 308 303 299 288 302 317Brazil 551 306 202 195 183 206 178 148 162 145 143 161 180Mexico 206 302 187 186 188 207 174 161 167 161 154 170 177Argentina 2920 1198 690 687 989 1063 1018 1041 1127 1035 1055 1114 1212Colombia 370 329 189 168 148 165 135 117 129 116 112 131 142

Middle East and North Africa .. 578 346 369 455 459 478 438 415 435 402 414 431Egypt .. 134 173 371 502 554 485 427 509 451 434 503 598

South Asia d .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Pakistan .. 1186 624 922 1067 1116 1048 828 903 800 809 889 889Sri Lanka .. 1066 369 358 414 460 416 331 352 346 325 367 356

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa 172 301 167 195 206 230 178 176 190 165 170 193 201

Gros s in flow s e

Dev elopin g cou n tries .. 353 492 455 530 98 144 171 160 53 57 56 47East Asia and Pacific .. 91 144 116 140 41 37 38 47 8 23 12 11Europe and Central Asia .. 72 105 115 159 28 41 66 55 27 9 28 18Latin America and Carribean .. 137 161 154 166 21 47 47 40 11 18 8 14Middle East and North Africa .. 4 13 6 6 1 1 3 1 2 1 0 1South Asia .. 31 53 33 36 5 9 12 13 4 6 4 2Sub-Saharan Africa .. 18 15 30 23 4 10 6 5 1 0 3 2

Table A.3 Global credit conditions(percent unless otherwise indicated a/)

a/Monthly figures are simple averages of daily figures. Quarterly and Annual figures are simple averages of monthly figures.

b/Average values for Spreads are for the period 1996-2003.

c/Aggregates as defined by JP Morgan.

d/East Asia and Pacific including South Asian countries.

e/In billions of US dollars.

April 24, 2013

Weightsb Average 2012 2013 2012 2013

1990 2000-09 2010 2011 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Dec Jan Feb M ar

Energy .. .. 144.7 188.2 187.4 183.7 183.2 182.0 187.9 181.5 187.8 192.0 183.8

Coal, Australia .. 10.7 207.8 255.0 202.4 200.6 187.7 182.4 195.9 195.0 194.8 199.4 193.5

Crude o il, average .. 13.1 148.0 194.8 196.7 192.6 192.5 190.9 196.8 189.5 196.8 201.6 192.0

Natural gas , Europe .. 15.1 131.0 166.2 181.3 182.0 175.9 185.5 187.1 186.4 187.6 186.0 187.6

N o n-energy 100.0 .. 173.9 209.9 190.0 189.3 191.0 186.9 186.3 187.0 188.5 187.8 182.5

A griculture 69.1 .. 170.4 209.0 194.0 191.7 200.6 191.1 186.1 189.0 188.0 186.1 184.2

B everages 16.9 .. 182.1 208.2 166.2 162.7 169.7 160.8 151.8 156.9 155.0 150.6 149.7

Cocoa 3.9 9.8 203.7 193.7 155.5 148.3 162.2 159.3 143.6 156.7 147.9 142.9 140.0

Coffee, arabica 8.0 3.3 170.6 236.0 162.3 158.1 158.0 141.0 132.5 133.0 136.9 130.1 130.4

Coffee, robusta 2.8 1.0 155.8 216.0 203.4 207.3 210.0 197.0 204.4 191.1 197.2 205.8 210.2

F o o d 29.4 .. 169.6 210.1 211.6 206.9 225.2 210.7 204.8 207.6 205.6 205.1 203.7

F ats and o ils 10.1 .. 184.5 222.7 230.0 231.1 250.2 221.9 216.4 218.6 217.3 218.4 213.5

Palm o il 2.3 4.6 213.4 266.6 236.8 257.8 235.3 191.7 202.0 183.8 199.2 204.5 202.3

Soybean meal 4.1 10.4 176.5 185.6 244.5 227.5 294.0 273.7 247.7 270.6 251.0 249.6 242.6

Soybeans 2.0 8.0 163.7 196.8 215.3 208.1 244.6 220.0 215.6 221.0 215.5 217.0 214.4

Grains 6.9 .. 171.8 238.5 244.2 227.2 264.0 258.9 248.1 253.8 250.1 246.8 247.5

M aize 1.7 6.3 188.4 295.6 302.4 273.8 333.1 321.4 309.1 312.8 307.2 306.8 313.2

Rice, Thailand, 5% 2.9 8.4 170.8 189.7 196.7 203.6 198.5 195.1 196.3 194.9 197.1 196.7 195.3

Wheat, US, HRW 1.9 7.2 146.8 207.6 205.6 176.5 229.4 233.4 211.0 228.4 220.2 209.3 203.3

Other fo o d 12.4 .. 148.2 167.8 157.9 156.8 157.1 152.4 150.4 151.4 149.9 150.1 151.2

Bananas, US 2.3 8.5 144.0 160.6 163.2 162.4 159.2 156.7 154.2 156.6 154.1 153.1 155.4

Sugar, world 7.5 4.2 215.4 263.0 217.9 215.9 215.0 198.8 187.7 195.3 190.9 184.8 187.3

R aw materia ls 22.8 .. 166.3 206.7 165.3 169.3 156.6 158.9 158.1 160.1 162.1 158.0 154.2

Cotton ("A" Index) 5.9 1.7 187.6 273.5 161.6 163.4 152.5 148.7 162.8 151.0 154.9 162.5 171.1

Rubber, Singapore 4.8 11.8 245.6 324.1 227.0 241.3 199.6 208.1 212.0 209.0 222.0 214.1 200.0

Sawnwood, M alaysia 2.9 3.0 128.6 142.5 132.9 134.0 131.1 132.6 128.2 133.4 132.0 127.8 124.7

F ert ilizers 2.7 .. 187.2 267.0 259.2 270.0 256.9 249.9 240.8 246.6 243.2 242.0 237.3

Triple superphosphate 0.9 5.2 189.5 267.2 229.3 233.5 240.7 224.4 215.9 215.9 215.9 215.9 215.9

M etals and minerals 28.2 .. 179.6 205.5 174.0 175.4 163.9 171.1 180.4 176.1 183.3 185.1 172.7

Aluminum 7.9 2.0 114.5 126.5 106.6 104.4 101.6 105.5 105.4 109.9 107.3 108.2 100.6

Copper 9.3 12.6 204.8 240.0 216.4 214.5 210.1 215.1 215.2 216.5 218.7 219.1 207.8

Gold .. 13.3 275.3 352.8 375.3 362.5 372.4 386.1 366.6 378.7 375.8 365.9 358.1

Nickel 2.2 9.3 147.9 155.4 119.0 116.6 111.1 115.2 117.3 118.3 118.5 120.0 113.4

M emo:C rude Oil (US$ ) .. 13.1 79.0 104.0 105.0 102.8 102.8 101.9 105.1 101.2 105.1 107.6 102.5

Table A.4 Commodity price indices(current US do llar index,index unless otherwise indicated; a/)

a/ The World Bank primary commodity price indices are computed from 1987-89 export values in US dollars for low- and middle-income economies, rebased to 1990.b/ Energy and gold prices are not included in the index.

April 24, 2013


Ex port v alu esDev elopin g cou n tries 13.5 29.9 22.5 3.8 10.9 -1.0 -9.4 20.4 -1.7 1.5 5.8 -2.3

East Asia and Pacific 15.1 30.9 19.6 6.4 8.7 17.6 -10.2 21.0 -2.2 5.3 6.7 -2.5China 19.5 31.6 20.1 8.1 1.7 27.4 -8.9 22.0 -3.8 8.3 7.2 -2.5Indonesia 9.0 35.8 28.9 -6.4 0.1 -17.6 -20.7 7.6 3.0 -5.3 8.3 0.0Thailand 10.4 26.9 15.0 3.2 72.7 10.6 -9.3 14.5 3.2 -1.9 4.9 -6.7

Europe and Central Asia 15.0 26.7 29.9 4.6 13.8 -16.8 -1.5 13.6 2.6 -6.5 5.8 -3.1Russian Federation 15.8 32.7 31.0 2.9 7.7 -21.4 -8.6 22.7 -0.1 -3.3 3.1 -4.9Turkey 14.0 11.1 18.7 13.2 34.6 17.7 12.7 -11.7 15.4 -19.8 14.2 0.7Poland 17.0 14.9 17.8 1.6 32.1 -15.3 7.8 30.6 -0.7 5.5 -4.0 -0.2

Latin America and Caribbean 8.3 28.1 22.4 1.6 10.3 -16.4 -0.6 14.6 -4.7 -2.5 3.7 -3.9Brazil 11.5 31.6 27.0 -4.7 -5.5 -25.0 -8.8 19.6 0.1 -7.8 6.7 -8.0Mexico 7.0 29.8 17.2 6.3 22.1 -3.9 -3.8 11.4 -7.9 1.3 0.8 0.2Argentina 8.0 21.8 23.1 -2.8 0.1 -29.4 21.8 -4.1 -0.5 -1.0 1.3 -1.1

Middle East and North Africa 18.5 26.6 17.2 .. 10.9 -18.6 -19.3 .. .. .. .. ..Saudi Arabia 18.3 34.7 42.2 .. 29.0 -8.2 -28.6 .. .. .. .. ..Iran 21.8 33.4 29.8 .. -6.6 -61.0 -71.9 .. .. .. .. ..Egypt 21.4 14.4 15.0 .. -17.3 -33.2 .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 14.3 33.4 32.5 -4.0 -1.0 -14.0 -10.3 17.9 -1.9 2.4 4.2 3.1India 16.5 37.0 33.2 -4.0 -2.0 -16.8 -11.4 19.1 -2.5 2.6 5.3 2.5Pakistan 7.5 21.7 19.2 -2.3 25.7 21.6 14.7 -10.0 3.4 -5.1 -2.4 -1.0Bangladesh 13.4 15.0 39.8 -3.9 -18.0 -3.7 -6.5 40.6 -3.2 10.3 -3.1 14.9

Sub-Saharan Africa 13.1 35.3 23.2 .. 35.8 -10.0 -29.7 .. .. .. .. ..South Africa 9.0 30.1 19.0 -9.4 8.6 -29.8 -17.2 8.2 1.0 -0.3 4.1 3.7Nigeria 20.7 49.1 36.6 .. 52.8 -0.8 -34.4 .. .. .. .. ..

Ex port prices b,c

Dev elopin g cou n tries 5.3 9.6 13.9 -3.4 -3.7 -12.0 -4.3 4.9 -0.6 0.0 0.6 ..East Asia and Pacific 2.7 5.4 10.1 -3.0 -9.8 -4.6 -1.0 2.3 0.1 -0.3 1.3 ..

China 1.8 3.9 9.4 -2.9 -10.5 -3.5 -1.1 1.5 -0.1 -0.2 2.0 ..Indonesia 7.5 14.5 17.4 -5.3 -13.7 -9.7 -4.1 11.3 0.0 1.3 -2.7 ..Thailand 2.8 9.2 5.7 0.6 1.2 0.2 0.7 1.7 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3

Europe and Central Asia 7.5 12.0 20.4 -6.2 2.0 -23.8 -19.3 2.9 -2.3 1.9 0.8 ..Russian Federation 10.3 17.7 25.7 -4.0 2.0 -28.8 -7.6 4.3 -1.7 0.9 -0.2 ..Turkey 3.3 0.1 11.5 -2.8 17.7 -6.3 -3.4 -5.4 -2.4 1.3 5.5 0.1Poland 2.1 -8.7 8.8 -11.7 -5.1 -22.5 -7.9 -1.8 -0.7 0.6 2.9 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 5.3 14.4 16.2 -4.7 -2.8 -13.1 -0.1 4.9 -2.0 0.6 -0.7 ..Brazil 4.1 12.6 15.7 -7.7 -12.2 -1.6 -18.0 -2.2 -0.8 0.1 -1.1 ..Mexico 4.0 12.2 14.4 -2.6 3.4 -19.5 8.6 9.9 -3.1 1.5 0.2 0.2Argentina 4.0 5.7 16.4 1.6 -4.6 13.3 8.4 5.6 0.2 -0.2 -2.9 ..

Middle East and North Africa 13.2 17.1 17.4 .. 45.0 4.9 40.4 .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 19.5 35.8 34.0 5.9 22.6 5.7 -42.9 38.7 .. .. .. ..Iran 15.9 26.1 29.7 0.3 17.8 -43.3 19.6 22.1 .. .. .. ..Egypt 6.5 11.9 19.8 -3.1 -1.2 -17.6 -24.9 .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 3.2 9.8 12.5 -5.4 -13.8 -2.4 -15.1 6.2 0.0 1.0 0.1 ..

India 3.3 10.1 13.3 -6.4 -15.1 -4.6 -17.0 6.9 -0.2 0.9 0.4 ..Pakistan 5.8 18.3 20.0 4.9 11.1 14.8 -32.1 4.3 -1.0 2.6 4.3 ..Bangladesh 1.6 3.4 8.6 -1.9 -20.5 2.0 3.8 10.9 0.6 4.3 -3.4 ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 10.0 23.8 24.5 .. 18.3 -32.3 -3.1 .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 8.6 26.4 18.3 -7.6 11.1 -24.0 -5.1 -10.1 1.7 3.2 -6.0 ..Nigeria 17.4 27.9 30.9 0.8 34.7 -37.3 -17.4 34.2 .. .. .. ..

Table A.5 Developing countries ' merchandise export growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise export (F.O.B), customs basis./b Implicit export unit values, U.S. Dollar basis./c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.

April 24, 2013


I mport v alu esDev elopin g c ou n tries 12.9 30.6 24.8 4.9 12.6 -10.2 -2.4 21.2 -0.8 -2.2 9.4 -5.0

East Asia and Pacific 16.0 37.1 24.5 5.4 11.9 -11.1 -5.2 25.1 -0.6 -0.8 8.1 -5.7China 20.3 39.0 25.2 4.7 5.5 -15.7 -0.2 23.5 -0.6 0.9 6.4 -4.6Indonesia 15.2 40.4 30.8 8.3 13.3 2.2 -33.5 55.9 0.0 -8.4 7.9 2.0Thailand 12.2 37.1 25.0 8.2 47.9 4.4 -22.1 54.4 -3.4 -3.3 18.8 -15.8

Europe and Central Asia 13.9 27.3 29.7 3.7 19.7 -9.4 1.2 9.5 1.9 -5.3 12.7 -0.9Russian Federation 14.2 32.6 30.7 5.8 35.3 -14.5 -1.3 11.6 -2.0 0.5 11.2 -4.5Turkey 13.4 31.6 30.1 -1.6 8.8 -3.8 -12.1 12.7 15.9 -16.4 17.2 1.8Poland 13.2 14.2 19.9 -1.2 34.2 -20.6 -0.5 24.3 -0.6 5.1 -6.2 -2.5

Latin America and Caribbean 7.5 29.1 21.9 3.5 11.2 -4.6 -14.8 25.7 -5.8 -3.2 14.9 -7.7Brazil 9.6 42.1 24.7 -1.0 -6.0 2.0 -39.1 58.1 1.1 -3.3 20.9 -14.2Mexico 6.7 28.5 16.5 5.8 18.4 -2.6 -10.5 28.3 -8.8 -3.5 10.8 -5.2Argentina 8.6 45.9 30.5 -7.0 -19.6 -12.0 3.5 11.5 -5.6 -0.6 8.5 2.1

Middle East and North Africa 12.9 14.2 16.0 .. 2.6 30.5 -4.0 .. .. .. .. ..Saudi Arabia 11.8 12.6 23.2 .. 54.7 16.1 -7.6 .. 19.9 .. .. ..Iran 13.0 33.4 44.4 .. -53.6 112.9 13.9 .. .. .. .. ..Egypt 12.9 17.8 11.5 .. 62.4 0.2 .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 16.9 33.9 31.5 4.2 16.2 -38.7 31.9 33.1 -2.4 3.4 -3.1 -2.5India 19.2 36.4 32.4 5.1 22.2 -43.2 36.2 38.6 -1.1 3.0 -3.5 -3.8Pakistan 13.5 19.4 16.4 0.6 -15.4 9.1 -1.0 -7.4 -8.7 8.8 2.0 12.5Bangladesh 10.8 27.6 30.0 .. 10.4 -19.0 85.2 .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 12.6 13.9 23.1 .. 7.4 2.4 1.1 .. .. .. .. ..South Africa 10.3 23.8 24.5 1.5 6.9 -6.0 -6.8 2.2 5.2 6.5 -4.9 ..Nigeria 20.2 9.8 24.1 .. -10.0 15.0 -27.4 .. .. .. .. ..

I mport pric es b , c

Dev elopin g c ou n tries 3.9 7.9 13.1 -2.8 -6.1 -5.8 -8.7 2.4 0.7 -0.8 -0.1 ..East Asia and Pacific 3.0 7.8 13.0 -4.4 -8.7 -7.6 -10.3 1.8 -0.5 0.2 -1.0 ..

China 3.3 9.1 13.3 -5.5 -10.2 -6.7 -11.2 2.1 -0.4 0.3 -0.4 ..Indonesia 5.2 12.2 19.1 -5.0 -8.0 -16.8 -4.9 2.7 0.4 -1.5 0.5 ..Thailand 2.2 -0.1 6.0 3.5 1.3 1.1 -8.8 0.6 -1.7 0.5 -4.3 1.8

Europe and Central Asia 4.2 10.0 12.6 -3.1 -5.5 -2.9 -10.6 4.7 4.7 -5.6 4.5 ..Russian Federation 2.2 5.6 10.3 -4.4 -13.5 -1.4 -9.1 2.7 0.1 0.7 0.2 ..Turkey 7.6 21.4 13.5 1.0 13.0 2.9 -8.5 7.2 15.2 -18.2 17.4 0.9Poland 0.8 -6.5 7.6 -3.3 -6.4 -11.2 -15.3 -32.5 -2.0 -7.7 21.1 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 3.1 5.3 10.9 0.2 -1.1 -0.4 -5.4 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.2Brazil 4.3 3.9 14.2 0.9 1.0 -4.7 -9.1 7.0 0.7 -0.1 -0.1 0.3Mexico 2.7 4.3 7.2 1.1 -0.5 -0.7 2.5 1.8 -0.4 0.7 -0.6 -0.8Argentina 0.7 5.3 9.7 2.6 4.0 42.6 -32.3 -11.5 1.8 0.8 1.0 ..

Middle East and North Africa 4.5 6.3 9.7 .. -1.8 -1.6 -19.0 .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 2.4 4.8 10.5 -4.7 -12.9 -0.9 -16.0 -0.6 -0.4 .. .. ..Iran 3.6 5.8 13.5 -6.7 -11.0 -6.6 -30.5 0.3 .. .. .. ..Egypt 3.4 6.5 15.6 -4.3 -9.2 -4.9 -25.4 .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 7.3 14.4 20.8 -1.0 -3.0 -11.3 -6.4 7.7 -0.7 -0.6 0.7 ..

India 6.8 16.1 21.6 -1.0 -1.5 -14.3 -0.9 5.9 -1.7 0.1 0.4 ..Pakistan 13.5 18.8 25.5 5.2 10.4 7.1 -47.5 26.7 0.4 3.3 2.6 ..Bangladesh 3.0 6.1 14.1 -5.4 -15.4 4.1 -7.3 -2.4 .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 7.0 8.3 15.1 .. -9.7 -3.8 -5.9 .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 14.0 7.9 18.9 13.3 -6.7 15.0 2.4 18.1 -0.9 0.7 -10.0 ..Nigeria 3.0 5.0 12.8 -4.5 -11.4 -6.0 -10.0 1.4 .. .. .. ..

Table A.6 Developing countries ' merchandise import growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise import (C.I.F.), customs basis./b Implicit import unit values, U.S. Dollar basis./c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.

April 24, 2013

US$ bn. % GDP 2012 2012 2013

2008 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec Jan Feb

World -168.7 -0.3 -172.6 -144.7 -251.6 -246.3 -345.2 -158.2 -233.8 -248.2 -277.8 -78.7 -209.5 -59.1

High -in come cou n tries a -418.9 -1.0 -290.7 -275.5 -305.5 -240.0 -287.6 -245.0 -211.5 -215.8 -160.6 -167.0 -111.7 -126.1Industrial countries -499.8 -1.2 -393.8 -485.0 -677.5 -644.5 -730.7 -642.7 -585.0 -619.7 -558.6 -579.3 -504.0 -521.8

United States -706.1 -5.0 -549.7 -690.7 -786.2 -789.9 -827.7 -797.2 -761.4 -773.4 -796.5 -704.6 -803.5 -776.6Japan 183.2 3.7 27.9 75.2 -32.6 -86.8 -66.0 -70.3 -100.3 -110.6 -103.9 -115.2 -104.7 -140.8Euro Area -19.6 -0.2 53.8 34.9 28.6 154.2 105.2 161.3 183.3 166.9 207.4 160.2 213.5 205.7United Kingdom -73.6 -2.8 -130.4 -154.0 -161.7 -170.9 -170.3 -180.3 -158.0 -175.2 -165.8 -175.9 -164.2 ..

Other high income 80.9 4.2 -393.8 -485.0 -677.5 -644.5 -730.7 -642.7 -585.0 -619.7 -160.6 -167.0 -111.7 -126.1Hong Kong (China) 30.5 12.8 -29.0 -43.2 -54.3 -61.5 -52.0 -62.3 -64.2 -67.5 -68.7 -56.1 -49.9 -61.8Singapore 26.9 13.9 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.03Taiwan (China) 24.9 6.0 28.8 22.6 25.9 30.6 27.3 22.9 34.2 37.9 39.7 47.1 -4.2 25.4

Dev elopin g cou n tries 293.5 1.8 116.0 125.1 44.4 -18.7 -69.7 75.8 -34.1 -46.7 -139.8 83.3 -130.9 45.2East Asia and Pacific 469.7 9.6 254.9 241.0 190.1 227.1 105.2 299.8 257.0 246.4 171.8 347.8 332.0 418.1

China 426.1 11.5 195.1 182.8 147.7 219.5 91.5 291.3 244.3 250.8 176.4 329.8 369.0 403.4Indonesia 0.6 0.1 19.6 22.1 26.0 -1.6 6.6 -4.0 4.2 -13.3 -13.8 -6.7 -6.3 -10.3Thailand -0.1 0.0 18.9 10.3 -6.5 -18.3 -20.5 -17.4 -8.0 -27.1 -23.0 -18.7 -54.6 -23.6Malaysia 38.9 19.7 33.7 34.4 40.6 30.8 33.3 30.3 24.9 34.5 34.7 35.1 8.0 26.0

Europe and Central Asia .. .. 3.3 1.1 2.8 11.0 28.0 6.6 0.2 9.1 16.0 2.7 -61.8 -83.5Russian Federation 102.4 6.0 112.4 149.3 196.4 193.2 208.3 189.3 178.9 196.4 205.0 185.6 164.0 154.9Turkey -41.3 -5.7 -38.4 -71.5 -106.0 -84.3 -93.7 -85.3 -73.1 -85.0 -92.5 -83.1 -101.6 -105.0Poland -29.0 -5.6 -91.2 -98.0 -138.1 -103.3 -137.2 -110.9 -87.8 -77.5 -77.8 -77.3 -43.4 -14.0Czech Republic -6.6 -3.0 8.0 6.6 10.7 15.7 15.3 13.3 17.1 17.3 19.4 13.2 16.1 16.8

Latin America and Caribbean -21.6 -0.5 -22.4 -34.7 -38.5 -57.7 -47.2 -78.9 -39.6 -65.3 -62.9 -53.4 -169.9 -118.9Brazil -28.2 -1.7 25.4 19.9 29.5 19.7 26.7 7.7 29.2 15.1 18.2 6.4 -25.0 -6.2Mexico -15.8 -1.6 -4.8 -3.1 -1.5 0.1 1.1 -0.2 6.4 -6.8 -11.2 6.8 -29.4 -7.8Argentina 7.6 2.6 17.1 11.5 10.0 12.8 15.5 10.6 14.0 11.3 12.6 12.2 7.5 5.0Colombia -6.7 -3.0 0.0 -0.6 2.8 2.2 5.3 -1.2 1.4 3.4 1.4 3.9 -6.4 0.6

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 17.1 52.2 64.5 .. 69.3 25.4 8.8 .. .. .. .. ..Saudi Arabia 132.9 27.3 80.6 128.9 203.0 .. 235.2 221.5 194.2 .. .. .. .. ..Iran 0.0 0.0 29.5 39.4 41.4 .. 59.2 12.5 -21.2 .. .. .. .. ..Egypt -1.3 -0.8 -21.7 -26.3 -28.4 .. -37.4 -40.3 .. .. .. .. .. ..Algeria 0.04 0.03 4.6 16.2 26.3 .. 16.0 3.9 2.1 .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia .. .. -117.2 -158.0 -204.9 -243.4 -255.2 -197.6 -245.9 -275.0 -290.9 -267.1 -273.5 -242.0India .. .. -91.6 -123.8 -162.1 -198.1 -209.2 -155.5 -199.7 -228.0 -238.5 -225.4 -225.2 -198.6Pakistan -15.7 -9.8 -14.2 -16.6 -18.8 -19.6 -20.3 -20.1 -19.1 -18.9 -19.5 -16.9 -21.1 -22.2Bangladesh .. .. -5.3 -8.5 -9.5 .. -10.6 -9.1 -14.6 .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa -29.9 -3.0 -13.8 33.0 40.8 .. 42.3 30.0 -3.4 .. .. .. .. ..South Africa -21.0 -7.5 -2.2 1.2 -2.9 -13.6 -7.9 -14.4 -16.6 -15.5 -11.1 -16.3 -19.4 -10.8Nigeria 20.3 9.3 8.9 30.3 47.3 .. 56.4 54.3 47.5 .. .. .. .. ..

Memo:OECD .. .. -421.6 -543.9 -774.5 -725.2 -817.3 -722.8 -653.2 -707.4 -656.7 -651.5 -637.3 -633.1Developing excl. China .. .. -78.6 -55.7 -100.4 -236.6 -157.4 -214.6 -277.3 -297.2 -301.9 -260.5 -549.5 -402.8Developing oil exporters 191.2 .. 203.9 332.7 435.0 367.7 452.6 355.2 309.8 353.3 358.7 367.6 222.5 248.9Developing non-oil exporters .. .. -89.1 -209.8 -394.0 -389.2 -526.0 -280.6 -345.6 -404.5 -494.7 -299.5 -389.3 -240.8

CAB

Table A.7 Merchandise trade balances(Billion US dollars; annual rates)

a/ Seasonally adjusted

April 24, 2013

Weights Average 2012 2013 2012 20131995 2000-09 2010 2011 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Dec Jan Feb Mar

World 100.0 94.0 5.8 0.9 -5.1 -6.4 -6.6 -3.7 -3.5 -0.1 -0.5 -0.8 -0.6

High - in come cou n tries 78.3 .. 8.5 6.5 -1.2 -3.3 -3.2 1.1 -3.4 -0.7 -1.9 -2.8 -1.6Industrial countries 70.6 .. 8.6 6.5 -1.2 -3.3 -3.3 1.0 -3.5 -0.7 -1.9 -2.8 -1.6

United States (SDR/USD) 15.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Japan 7.4 112.0 6.7 10.1 -0.1 1.9 -1.1 -4.9 -14.0 -3.3 -5.8 -4.4 -1.7Euro Area 29.5 .. -4.7 5.0 -7.6 .. .. .. .. 2.3 1.3 0.4 -3.0United Kingdom 5.6 0.6 -0.9 3.8 -1.1 -3.0 -1.8 2.2 -1.3 1.1 -1.1 -3.1 -2.5

Other high income 7.7 101.4 3.8 5.6 -0.5 -2.2 -1.8 3.0 0.6 0.2 -0.1 -1.4 -0.4Hong Kong (China) 3.7 7.8 -0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1Singapore 2.3 1.6 6.7 8.4 0.6 -1.9 -1.7 5.3 2.1 0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.7Taiwan (China) 2.1 33.0 4.9 7.2 -0.6 -2.7 -2.3 3.8 0.7 0.3 -0.1 -1.8 -0.4

Dev elopin g cou n tries 21.7 115.5 5.1 -0.5 -6.0 -7.1 -7.5 -4.8 -3.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3East Asia and Pacific 7.5 100.4 8.2 0.3 -4.8 -5.4 -6.8 -4.5 -4.5 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3

China 2.7 7.9 0.9 4.7 2.5 2.7 1.0 1.8 1.4 0.0 0.2 -0.2 0.3Indonesia 1.1 9360.6 14.3 3.6 -6.4 -7.4 -9.5 -6.7 -6.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3Thailand 1.3 38.9 8.2 4.1 -1.9 -3.3 -3.9 1.1 4.0 0.2 1.9 0.8 1.0Malaysia 1.4 3.7 9.4 5.3 -0.9 -3.1 -3.2 3.1 -0.7 0.1 0.5 -1.8 -0.4

Europe and Central Asia 4.3 94.5 -5.2 -29.4 -29.8 -41.0 -28.5 -2.3 -5.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2Russian Federation 1.5 28.6 4.6 3.3 -5.3 -9.9 -8.7 0.5 -0.9 2.2 1.5 0.1 -2.0Turkey .. 1.3 3.2 -10.3 -6.7 -13.3 -3.7 2.5 0.6 0.3 0.9 -0.3 -1.7Poland 0.5 3.5 3.4 1.8 -8.9 -17.1 -11.0 3.6 2.5 3.1 0.3 -0.2 -2.7Czech Republic 0.5 26.6 -0.2 8.0 -9.6 -14.2 -13.8 -3.2 -1.2 3.0 -0.1 0.7 -3.7

Latin America and Caribbean 5.5 142.6 4.7 1.7 0.4 -0.8 -0.8 2.0 0.6 0.6 0.5 -0.2 -0.3Brazil 1.1 2.3 13.6 5.1 -14.3 -18.7 -19.4 -12.6 -11.4 -0.6 2.3 2.9 -0.6Mexico 1.7 10.8 6.9 1.6 -5.5 -13.4 -6.5 5.4 2.7 1.6 1.2 -0.1 1.8Argentina 0.4 2.7 -4.7 -5.2 -9.3 -8.2 -9.7 -11.4 -13.4 -1.7 -1.3 -1.2 -1.5Colombia 0.3 2329.3 13.6 2.8 2.8 0.6 -0.1 6.4 0.4 1.6 1.2 -1.3 -1.0

Middle East and North Africa 1.7 163.8 0.4 0.0 -9.3 -9.9 -9.9 -9.9 -2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2Saudi Arabia 0.8 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Iran 0.4 .. 0.4 0.0 -9.6 -10.2 -10.2 -10.2 .. 0.0 .. .. ..Egypt 0.3 5.2 -1.4 -5.2 -2.1 -1.5 -2.0 -2.2 -9.8 -1.0 -6.0 -2.4 -0.8Algeria 0.3 73.4 -1.8 1.1 -5.9 -4.9 -9.4 -6.1 -4.6 1.6 0.2 0.2 -1.3

South Asia 1.2 107.4 3.1 -2.1 -11.5 -14.8 -14.6 -6.9 -6.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 -0.7India 0.8 45.5 5.9 -2.0 -12.6 -17.3 -17.0 -6.2 -7.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 -1.1Pakistan 0.2 62.4 -4.1 -1.3 -7.5 -7.4 -8.2 -8.8 -7.5 -1.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.1Bangladesh 0.1 62.3 -0.8 -6.0 -9.5 -10.4 -8.7 -4.9 4.7 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.6Sri Lanka 0.1 99.8 1.7 2.2 -13.4 -15.5 -16.9 -13.5 -6.1 1.7 1.0 0.0 0.0

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.5 117.9 -7.7 -8.8 -2.8 -0.3 0.0 0.3 -0.4South Africa 0.6 7.7 15.1 0.8 -11.6 -16.4 -13.5 -6.8 -13.4 2.3 -2.1 -1.0 -3.4Nigeria 0.3 124.9 -0.9 -3.1 -1.8 -2.5 -3.1 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.2 -0.4 -0.6

Memo:OECD 73.7 .. 8.6 6.4 -1.2 -3.4 -3.2 1.3 -3.2 -0.6 -1.8 -2.7 -1.6Developing excl. China 19.0 118.7 5.1 -0.5 -6.1 -7.2 -7.5 -4.8 -3.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3Developing oil exporters 2.8 171.6 5.4 0.2 -5.3 -6.0 -6.8 -5.2 -3.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3Developing non-oil exporters 19.0 108.8 0.6 -10.1 -14.7 -21.1 -15.1 -0.7 -1.6 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.0

Table A .8 Ex ch an ge Rates (USD/L CU)(annual percent change except m o nthly data which is change o ver prev io us m o nth a/)

April 24, 2013

Average 2012 2013 2012 20131999-09 2010 2011 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Dec Jan Feb Mar

World 2.6 2.8 4.0 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.5 2.1 3.5 2.3 2.3 1.9

High - in come cou n tries 1.9 1.6 2.7 2.0 2.5 2.6 2.4 1.7 2.3 1.7 1.6 1.4Industrial countries 1.9 1.5 2.6 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.2 1.6 2.2 1.6 1.5 1.4

United States 2.5 1.6 3.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 2.0 1.4Japan -0.3 -0.7 -0.3 0.0 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.6 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 ..Euro Area 2.0 1.5 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.2 1.7 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.5United Kindgom 1.8 3.3 4.5 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7

Other high income 1.9 1.5 2.6 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.2 1.6 2.2 1.6 1.5 1.4Hong Kong (China) -0.5 2.3 5.3 4.1 4.2 3.2 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.0 4.3 3.6Singapore 1.4 2.8 5.2 4.6 5.3 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.3 3.5 4.9 ..Taiwan (China) 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.9 1.6 3.0 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.1 2.9 1.4

Dev elopin g cou n tries 4.7 5.8 7.1 6.1 4.9 4.7 4.8 3.7 4.6 4.5 3.5 3.2East Asia and Pacific 2.0 3.5 5.5 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.5 3.1 2.9 3.0 3.2 2.7

China 1.6 3.3 5.4 2.6 2.9 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.0 3.2 2.1Indonesia 9.5 5.1 5.4 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.4 5.2 4.3 4.6 5.3 5.8Thailand 2.3 3.3 3.8 3.0 2.6 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.6 3.4 3.2 2.7Malaysia 2.2 1.6 3.2 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6

Europe and Central Asia 12.5 6.9 7.9 7.0 1.3 2.2 2.5 0.4 2.8 1.0 0.4 0.2Russian Federation 20.5 6.9 8.4 5.1 3.9 6.0 6.5 7.1 6.5 7.1 7.3 7.0Turkey 10.4 8.6 6.5 8.9 9.4 9.1 6.7 7.2 6.1 7.3 7.0 7.3Poland 3.9 2.7 4.2 3.7 4.0 3.9 3.0 1.6 2.6 2.0 1.5 1.2Czech Republic 2.7 1.4 1.9 3.3 3.4 3.3 2.8 1.7 2.4 1.9 1.7 1.6

Latin America and Caribbean 6.5 6.1 6.8 6.4 4.6 4.5 4.7 3.7 4.3 3.2 3.5 4.2Brazil 6.7 5.0 6.6 5.4 5.0 5.3 5.6 6.3 5.8 6.1 6.3 6.6Mexico 6.2 4.2 3.4 4.1 3.9 4.6 4.1 3.7 3.6 3.2 3.5 4.2Argentina 7.7 10.5 9.8 10.0 9.9 9.9 10.6 10.8 10.8 11.1 10.8 10.6Colombia 6.7 2.3 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.1 2.7 1.9 2.4 2.0 1.8 1.9

Middle East and North Africa 7.7 7.6 12.5 17.1 7.7 6.6 5.7 7.2 5.8 6.5 7.8 7.6Saudi Arabia 1.8 5.3 5.0 4.5 5.1 3.8 3.8 .. 3.9 .. .. ..Iran 15.7 10.2 20.6 27.3 23.0 28.4 35.6 .. 38.5 .. .. ..Algeria 3.2 3.9 4.5 8.9 9.5 8.0 9.1 .. 9.1 .. .. ..

South Asia 5.8 11.7 9.2 9.3 9.3 9.4 8.3 8.3 8.5 8.9 8.8 7.5India 5.5 12.0 8.8 9.4 10.2 9.8 10.2 11.0 11.3 11.5 12.1 ..Pakistan 20.3 12.9 11.9 9.7 11.6 9.2 7.5 7.3 7.9 8.0 7.4 6.6Bangladesh 5.9 8.1 10.3 8.7 9.3 7.9 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.3 7.8 7.7Sri Lanka 10.5 6.2 6.7 7.5 7.4 9.5 9.2 9.0 9.2 9.8 9.8 7.5

Sub-Saharan Africa 7.9 7.2 8.5 8.4 6.7 6.3 6.1 .. 5.9 .. .. ..South Africa 6.0 4.3 5.0 5.6 5.7 5.1 5.6 .. 5.6 .. .. ..Nigeria 11.7 13.7 10.8 12.2 12.8 12.0 12.0 .. 12.0 .. .. ..

Memo:OECD 2.1 1.7 2.7 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.3 1.6 2.2 1.7 1.6 1.4Developing excl. China 7.4 7.2 8.0 7.9 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.7 4.5 3.5 3.7Developing oil exporters 9.4 7.2 8.7 8.6 5.8 6.2 5.7 3.7 6.6 3.2 2.8 4.2Developing non-oil exporters 3.3 5.2 6.4 5.0 4.7 4.3 4.8 4.9 4.5 5.3 4.9 2.9

Table A.9 Global Inflation(annual percent change; seasonally adjusted a/)

a/ The CPI aggregates are the medians of the growth rates.

April 24, 2013

Weights 2012 2013 2012 20131995 2010 2011 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Dec Jan Feb Mar

World 100.0High - in come c ou n tries b 82.8 -1.45 -1.45 -1.45 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries 80.6 -1.44 -1.44 -1.44 .. .. .. ..United States (US Federal funds rate) 25.5 0.18 0.10 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.14 0.16 0.14 0.14 0.15Japan (Discount Rate) 18.4 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30Euro Area (Eurosys main refi rate-minimum bid) 24.5 1.00 1.25 1.00 1.00 1.00 .. .. .. .. .. ..United Kingdom (Clearing bank's base rate) 3.9 0.50 0.50 0.50 4.50 5.50 6.50 7.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

Other high income 2.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Hong Kong (Discount rate) 0.5 3.13 3.13 3.13 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50Singapore (MAS Interbank 1 month rate) 0.3 1.15 1.15 1.15 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31Taiwan (Interbank swap overnight rate) 0.9 1.93 1.93 1.93 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39

Dev elopin g cou n tries 17.2East Asia and Pacific 4.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China (Lending rate, 6m to 1y) 2.4 7.18 7.18 7.18 6.50 6.02 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00Indonesia (Interbank 3m rate) 0.7 9.18 9.18 9.18 4.39 4.86 4.92 4.93 4.94 4.96 4.92 4.90Thailand (14day Bilateral Repo Rate) 0.6 1.47 2.95 2.96 3.00 3.00 2.79 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75Malaysia (Interbank overnight rate) 0.3 4.48 5.48 6.48 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97

Europe and Central Asia 3.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Russian Federation (Discount (Refin.)) 1.2 10.87 10.87 10.87 8.00 8.05 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25Turkey (Interbank 1 week average) 0.6 17.05 17.05 17.05 10.40 6.87 5.61 5.47 5.55 5.51 5.35 5.57Poland (Interbank 2 week) 0.4 5.88 5.88 5.88 4.58 4.73 4.51 3.75 4.27 4.08 3.80 3.37Czech Republic (Repo rate 2 weeks) 0.2 3.49 3.49 3.49 0.75 0.50 0.12 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Latin America and Caribbean 5.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Brazil (SELIC Target rate) 2.4 12.45 12.45 12.45 8.98 7.88 7.28 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25Mexico (CETES 91 day closing) 1.0 7.88 7.88 7.88 4.40 4.33 4.34 4.17 4.22 4.30 4.20 4.01Argentina (30 Day deposit) 0.9 11.43 11.43 11.43 11.55 12.08 13.39 13.29 13.78 13.36 13.00 13.52Colombia (Fixed Term Deposit) 0.3 9.68 9.68 9.68 5.45 5.40 5.30 4.90 5.24 5.17 4.87 4.64

Middle East and North Africa 1.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Saudi Arabia (Interbank 3m rate) 0.4 2.89 2.89 2.89 0.91 0.95 0.98 0.99 0.99 1.00 0.98 ..Egypt (IMF discount rate) 0.2 10.17 10.17 10.17 9.50 9.50 9.50 10.25 9.50 10.25 10.25 10.25Algeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 4.00 4.00 4.00 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 1.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..India (Bank deposit 365+ days) 1.2 7.90 7.90 7.90 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00Pakistan (Repo 7-15 day) 0.2 10.63 10.63 10.63 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Bangladesh (Bank Rate) 0.1 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00Sri Lanka (Central bank repurchase) 0.0 10.50 10.50 10.50 7.74 7.75 7.69 7.50 7.58 7.50 7.50 7.50

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa (Repo rate) 0.5 11.61 11.61 11.61 5.50 5.11 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00Nigeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 9.85 9.85 9.85 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.10 Global Central Bank Interest Rates(percentage a/)

a/ Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures; except for the latest month, the figure reported for the latest month is the value on the date the data has been reported (which is the last daily observation one day before the note becomes available).

April 24, 2013

Average 2012 2013 2012 20131999-08 2010 2011 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Dec Jan Feb Mar

World 91 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..High - in come cou n tries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..United States 89 99 111 121 118 122 122 130 116 120 124 128Japan 84 68 68 63 58 58 58 64 59 62 64 67Euro Area 99 299 332 280 241 245 252 264 272 284 281 269United Kindgom 88 78 84 84 73 77 81 86 81 84 84 84

Other high incomea .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Hong Kong (China) .. 156 160 151 135 138 151 162 167 175 176 174Singapore 80 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Taiwan (China) 72 95 104 95 77 76 79 83 83 85 85 85

Dev elopin g cou n tries a, b 156 233 245 229 189 189 199 208 206 213 211 207East Asia and Pacificc 123 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China 118 218 211 196 190 184 202 216 187 197 193 185Indonesia 207 582 683 683 467 471 490 521 437 448 469 491Thailand 188 306 382 426 305 311 328 369 308 323 337 342Malaysia 116 193 223 230 199 203 207 206 219 222 214 217

Europe and Central Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Russian Federation 525 356 406 349 332 334 339 358 349 368 366 350Turkey 87 147 131 128 96 108 122 136 121 130 123 128Poland 168 175 187 150 119 124 137 142 156 158 152 146Czech Republic 354 601 622 518 440 442 443 408 491 487 474 447

Latin America and Caribbean 203 394 397 360 315 312 317 334 335 352 347 343Brazil 199 419 405 342 309 298 297 311 305 320 315 313Mexico 193 315 349 369 313 337 357 383 391 412 407 404Argentina 104 161 182 90 68 58 59 74 71 80 82 78

Middle East and North Africa .. 220 237 217 184 189 194 201 198 205 201 194Egypt 213 426 309 316 224 247 254 236 230 236 229 211

South Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..India 198 348 326 280 208 212 233 240 266 274 271 262Pakistan 241 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Bangladesh .. 670 524 378 485 432 415 410 409 421 435 402Sri Lanka 229 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa 216 293 325 320 271 277 278 282 272 273 269 258

Table A.11 Stock Markets(indices, year 2000=100)

a/ Average for Developing countries and Other High Income countries is for the period 1995-2002Note: Quarterly and Monthly data is constructed from daily data by taking the last observation for the month. Annual data is the average over 12 months.b/ Aggregates defined by IFC/S&Pc/ East Asia Pacific including South AsiaSource: World - Morgan Stanley Capital International Index; USA - Wilshire 5000; Japan - Topix; Euro Area - S&P EUROPE 350; UK - Standard and Poor's 350; Hong Kong - Hang Seng Composite; Singapore - Singapore Stock Exchange Composite Index; All Others are IFC/S&P Indices

developing trends: april 2013 - world...

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