Developing South Africa’s Drone Technology Ecosystem

Victor Radebe, Enhle Kheswa and Simphiwe Buthelezi

Moses Kotane Institute Journal ISSN: 2789-1917

Vol.1 Issue.1, pp. 87-107

June 2021

The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the funder, MKIJ or the author’s affiliated institution(s). MKIJ will not be liable to any person for inaccurate information or opinions contained herein.

Developing South Africa’s Drone Technology Ecosystem

Victor Radebe1, Enhle Kheswa2 and Simphiwe Buthelezi2

30 June 2021

Abstract The growth of the South African drone industry is engaged via the exploration of various factors in the national scope of this emerging technology. We ask whether the South African market is ready to embark on supplying the need for drone skills, local manufacturing for export, and the rate of technology adoption. The competitive landscape of drone technology in South Africa also indicates that there may be imbalances that lead to a widening of the gap between the technology initiators and the straggling adopters. Keywords: drone industry; drone technology; unmanned aviation; skills

1. Background The year 2015 marked the birth of the South African unmanned aviation industry when the South African Civil Aviation Authority (SACAA) joined a handful of countries to enact Part 101 regulations of the Civil Aviation Act. Since then, many drone pilots have received training from the accredited training organisations (ATOs) and were issued with RPAS Pilot Licences (RPLs). To date, over 80 companies have obtained RPAS Operating Certificates (ROC) from SACAA to carry out legal drone operations. Despite these regulations, the majority of drones are still being operated illegally, largely out of ignorance of the Part 101 regulations. These illegal operations are not only compromising aviation safety, but they also undermine the work of licensed operators and pilots. The advancement of drone technology is an integral part of increasing the scope of the region in terms of developing a thriving Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR). As the market share for drone technology increases, it is imperative to explore all aspects of preparation and applications for economic development of all communities. There are global hotspots of drone usage and manufacturing of drones, in which the process may have similarities to other production lines and manufacturers. This opens the space for new players to engage in the drone supply chain, learn new aligned skills, upskill current capable employees and create new avenues of employment in the drone industry (Jovanovic and Nyarko 1994). Many drones used may be able to open a market for add-on parts and auxiliary services in order to perform the various functions mentioned above, further boosting revenues. The growth of the drone industry can be accelerated by a conducive market environment. A revenue opportunity of more than R2.3 billion has been approximated in South Africa, including more than 33 800 jobs in 2018 (Bateman 2019). This could open many channels of marketing to various industries and governments worldwide.

1 Mzansi Aerospace Technologies (PTY) LTD 2 Moses Kotane Institute

The sub-Saharan African drone industry has been growing largely through the adoption of imported technology rather than through locally developed technologies. International companies like Terra Drone, Wingtra, DJI and Zipline have dominated this market. China is one of the leading countries where the drone technology is growing tremendously. Companies such as Da-Jiang Innovations (DJI) are at the forefront in this regard, with DJI being the household name for every variant of UAV. In 2017, DJI had over 70% of the global market share for the consumer drone industry, with profits ranging in the margin of US$2.7 billion. The drone industry in China is growing faster than any other country buoyed by efficient production systems and low labour costs. Notwithstanding the rapid adoption of drone technology in the sub-Saharan African region, drone usage is still largely limited to crop farming, leisure and professional photography and humanitarian activities (Haula and Agbozo 2020; IndustryARC 2019). The South African drone market is slightly different. Although imported drone hardware and software have been used, the industry has seen a growth of local drone service providers (DSPs) that have penetrated key sectors like mining, security, agriculture and public services (IndustryARC 2019). The commercial use of drones includes monitoring crop health, data collection − chlorophyll levels in crops, photography, urban planning, surveying (mining, construction, data collection and analysis on site), lifting and removal, surveillance, and security. Climate change is a major concern for food security in South Africa and the agricultural sector must look towards emerging technologies to overcome the challenges (Sylvester 2018). In future, planning and strategy based on real-time data gathering and processing should be considered. Drone technology can improve agricultural production, mapping and monitoring agricultural areas using remote sensing, crop modelling and information communication technology (ICT). PwC estimates the market for drone-powered solutions in agriculture at $32.4 billion worldwide. The major applications of drone in agriculture are irrigation, crop spraying and monitoring, soil and field analysis and bird control (Ahiwer et al. 2019).

2. The global drone industry overview Despite the 2020 slowdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the latest research by the London-based ABI Research indicates that the drone industry is expected to grow to US$92 billion by 2030 (Pretrara 2020). The research report identifies the following as the drivers of this growth: Unmanned Traffic Management, Autonomous Drones, Remote Identification, Edge Computing, Cloud and 5G. The leading markets for these are expected to continue dominating this industry are USA with 1.7 million registered commercial drones and 400 000 commercial operators. China has 400 000 registered drones and the European Union has just over 1 million (Pretrara 2020). Several global technologies and industries were developed from the defence industries, and these include aviation, maritime and the automotive industries. The latest of these industries that were developed through the military has been the drone industry, which was necessitated by the escalation in the Middle Eastern proxy wars that were led by the United States of America. It was through these wars that drones gained their notoriety when they were used to eliminate ‘enemies’ that were considered a danger to the US interest. The latest of these strikes was the assassination of the Iranian major general Qasem Soleimani on 3 January 2020 by the Trump administration. For some time, drones were considered weapons of mass destruction that were responsible for countless casualties that included women and children under the guise of ‘collateral damage’. Therefore, various organisations are shying away from the use of the word ‘drone’, opting to use ‘unmanned aerial vehicle’ or simply ‘UAV’. Nonetheless, in the non-military application of drones, the use of ‘drone’ has gained

popularity, even though the general public is yet to fully accept and trust the use of drones in public. This general apprehension emanates not only for fear that these drones can kill, but for fear that they could be violating privacy and other civil liberties. Despite the tremendous growth of the use of drones, there is still much ignorance about the use of this technology. Drones have developed from “nice toys to professional tools” that collect data in various industrial applications and have revolutionised various sectors of the economy (Giones and Brem 2017). Drone technology has emerged as one of the enablers of digital transformation in key use cases. While some of these use cases made huge inroads in key sectors, drone deliveries and passengers have had the biggest share of voice in the media. The latest drone delivery stories of Amazon, UPS or Walmart, and urban air mobility ones of Uber or EHang are a case in point. The size of these companies and their achievements in their respective sectors tend to generate the biggest news feeds. Furthermore, even those that have not taken the drone industry seriously, tend to be swayed by these developments.

3. Future drivers and interactions Drones are fitted with transponders that assist with unmanned traffic management (UTM), reduce unknown objects in restricted air spaces and increase safety for all.

Figure 1. Sub-categories of drones.

Source: Civil Aviation Authority, SA

As illustrated in Figure 1, Category A also has sub-categories by weight class, where 0 to 999 g falls under CAT A0: ‘Toys’ and ‘mini drones’. For the weight of 1 to 3.99 kg this is classified as CAT A1: ‘Very small drones’, and 4 to 25 kg is CAT A2: ‘Small drones’. The future of RPAS regulations is dependent on the implementation of the structures proposed for accessible licensing of various categories of pilot proficiency based on usage requirements. According to JARUS categorisation, Category A will describe the Low Unmitigated, Category B describes Low-Med Mitigated, and Category C will be the High Unmitigated. Safety Operational Risk Assessment (SORA) will be mandatory for Category B in some cases, and Category C operations. All Category A drones must adhere to the limitations of airspace, with toys and mini-drones not permitted to fly above 50 m from the ground, and very small drones and small drones permitted to fly up to 150 m in non-restricted airspace (Figure 2).

4. Drone technology adoption In the 2000s, there was a global growth in the use of military drones, and there was resistance from the human rights groups. The past 10 years have seen a dramatic shift of the drone industry from military to commercial use. UAVs have gone the way of many technological advancements made for military purposes, thus evolving to suit the needs of various industries and private uses. The military uses UAVs as an alternative to manned aircraft. The market share of UAV for military use stands at $70 billion globally. However, the culture of resistance to drones, previously viewed as killing machines, had a huge influence on the rate of adoption of this technology (Kitonsa et al. 2019). The public, particularly the early majority and older members of the public, often initially reject all new technologies. This initial apprehension about new technologies emanates from the fear of the unknown and the general comfort with the status quo (Macias et al. 2019). In the case of drones, they are viewed with suspicion about the violation of privacy. Some of the reasons for delayed acceptance of the drone technology has to do with the convenience of using this technology. Unlike other technologies such as smart phones that can be used straight from the box, the use of drones is subjected to a strict licensing and aviation safety regulatory system.

Figure 2. Marketing a high-tech product.

Source: ReadingGraphics

The drone technology adoption is still in its infancy; and, innovators and early adopters have largely adopted this form of technology. In his book Crossing the Chasm, Moore (2014) makes a distinction between the early and mainstream market. Mass adoption of any technology only happens when that technology “crosses the chasm” from early market to mainstream market. This happens when the early adopters start to use the solution. While the early market players (innovators and early adopters) are adventurous in nature, the early majority tends to wait for the full solution and for the technology to mature. The drone technology is yet to mature in target use cases and is still struggling to transition to the mainstream market (Figure 2).

5. The competitive landscape While ROC holders largely dominate the industry, supporting industry players do not necessarily require SACAA accreditation and are involved in offering professional services and other drone technology ancillary services. Given the important role played by this technology, some major corporations that include Anglo American, Old Mutual and Sasol Mining have also registered as ROC holders for their own in-house drone operations.

Table 1. The competitive landscape for this industry will be analysed using the Porter’s Five Forces Model.

Source: Steers et al. (1979) 6. Problem statement The rate of adoption of drone technology has been on the rise in a number of sectors that are a bedrock of the South African economy; these include mining, agriculture, security and construction. The following benefits have contributed to the increase in the use of drone technology:

Threat of new entrants

For incumbent operators in the drone industry, there is always the fear of new entrants coming into the industry to compete for limited opportunities. Given the time and cost it takes to acquire and ROC or be an ATO, this threat is rather limited with some of operators opting to work through the ROC holders and ATOs. However, this barrier to entry has been somewhat lowered with more streamlined processes on the part of SACAA.

Bargaining power of suppliers

On the part of drone services, only ROC holders can legally offer commercial drone services, and this gives them leverage in the marketplace. In training of drone pilots, only ATOs can issue drone pilot licences that are approved by the SACAA. However, with the growing number of industry players, the growing competitive environment has diminished the power of suppliers.

Bargaining power of buyers

Some of the buyers of drone services include major corporations and large state-operated enterprises (SOEs). In the private sector, these large corporations tend to look for quality services rather than for lower prices. This has also been due to the limited number of ROC holders in each sector. In the public sector, procurement is subject to the public bidding process, which gives more power to the buyers owing to the size of their budgets. These SOEs and other organs of state would naturally procure at the lowest prices, giving them more leverage in the marketplace.

Threat of substitution

Drones have been presented as perfect substitutes in a number of operations. In security, drones are replacing security patrol guards by providing better aerial surveillance. In some infrastructure inspections, drones are eliminating the need for scaffolding. As much as drones have been able to displace certain tools, they are not immune to being substituted. For instance, drone pilots could in future be made redundant by autonomous drones that can be flown with the use of machine learning and AI. In other operations, drone technology can be substituted by improvements in satellite technologies and improved manned aircrafts.

Rivalry among existing competitors

There is intense competition among the existing ROC holders who are always vying for limited opportunities in the industry. Some of these competitors include ROC holders like Drone Ops, United Drone Solutions, Rockemine or UAV Industries. Competition is still limited to those sectors that have adopted this technology earlier and they include mining, surveying, construction, security, and agriculture.

• Reduction of time it takes to gather crucial data, • Removal of personnel from harm posed by dangerous working conditions, • Reduced cost of acquisition of aerial data, and • Aerial situational awareness in critical work situations like emergency services.

Enterprises that have adopted drone technology have done so for a variety of reasons but the most important one has been to build internal capabilities that would bolster their competitive advantage. Without any clear economic policy and support measures, the growth of the South African drone industry will stagnate and possibly be overtaken by those of some of the African countries such as Rwanda, which receive support from the government. The government’s current involvement in the South African drone industry is through the licensing and compliance system that is administered by the DoT, SACAA and ICASA. In the absence of a clear economic policy and strategic plan, the industry will continue to operate at the mercy of these regulators. 7. Role of authorities in unmanned aviation industry Regulatory bodies have requirements to carry out all the regulations for optimum safety of air traffic. They are also activists in their own rights, as they engage with regulatory bodies such as South African Civil Aviation Authority (SACAA), Airports Company South Africa (ACSA) and other international bodies. Regulatory bodies require a number of different qualifications and skills for the entrance of high-quality pilots into the unmanned aviation industry. For manned aviation, pilots must be proficient in upwards of 90 different criteria. Similarly, good candidates for drone pilots display skills such as spacial orientation, logic, and critical thinking.

Figure 3. South African aircraft register comparison.

Source: Civil Aviation Authority, SA Annual Report

As indicated in Figure 3, remotely piloted aircraft saw the greatest percentage growth 25% in the 2019-2020 financial year.

Figure 4. South African Aircraft Register – comparison between 2016/17, 2017/18, 2018/19, and 2019/20 FY.

Source: Civil Aviation Authority, SA Annual Report The SACAA records all the registrations of legal aircraft. Remotely piloted aircraft are the fastest growing sector in the national register. Registrations are essential for monitoring the national airspaces and protecting the safety and privacy of all citizens. Privacy concerns will always be taken into account when engaging with drone law as drones most often come with video cameras attached, regardless of the primary usage of the drone. There remains the potential to gather data, via recordings or video streaming. The Protection of Personal Information Act (POPI Act) was implemented to protect citizens from the processing of their personal information. Collection is included in the definition of ‘processing’; so, before these regulations are signed into law, they must take the provisions of POPI into account especially in light of new advanced technologies like drones. Currently, the drone community needs to improve compliance with the law because drones pose high risk to human life, especially in instances where they are flown too close to airfields (Figure 5). Despite the existence of the laws, there is evident ignorance of the law as users see drones as toys, not taking cognisance of the fact that a small drone caught in the engine can bring down a full passenger aircraft.

Figure 5. Non-compliance can lead to expensive closure of the airspace.

Source: IOL News Regulations currently speak to the Remote Piloting proficiency in terms of initial training and qualification. The SACAA pre-requisites are as follows: English Language Proficiency, Restricted Radio Telephony (Aeronautical), Class 4 Aviation Medical examination. Training consists of two parts: theoretical training can be completed in seven full days, and includes subjects like Rules and

Regulations, Human Factors, Aerodynamics and Performance, Construction and Parts, Batteries, Systems, Meteorology, Weight and Balance, Navigation, Flight Plans, Emergency Procedures, Safety Management Services, Quality Assurance, and Radio. Practical training consists of Navigation, Principles of Flight, Human Factors, Radio Telephony, Meteorology, Flight Performance and Planning, Operational Procedures, RPAS General, and RPAS CARs and CATS 101 (Air Law). Training is completed through an Aviation Training Organisation (ATO). 8. Role of drones merging with the current aircraft economy Drones have huge potential to improve human lives as a delivery method, surveying, weather forecasting, environmental research, veld fires and rescue. In different countries, the use of drones for various uses has started to grow in popularity. Environmental monitoring, for example, has improved drastically as drones can go to hard-to-reach places for population census of various species. The development of the industry in South Africa has seen many attempts to integrate drone technology into various applications. The strict legislation of the RPAS Part 101 regulations has been a source of frustration, but there has been marked progress, like the awarding of ROC licences for the Western Cape Emergency Management Services in late 2020 (Figure 6).

Figure 6. Western Cape becomes the first provincial government department to obtain ROC.

Source: Business Insider SA

9. Skills requirements for entry into service with regulatory bodies For new trainees, recruiters look at their Mathematics and Science grades. Their English marks are important because ATC communicates with international colleagues. Additionally, mental fitness and conflict resolution ability important requirements, specifically the ability to stay calm under pressure. Skills such as excellent calculation and acute spacial orientation for accurate estimation and guiding aircraft are also required. Skills requirements indicated as beneficial to success in the programme are: communication, comprehension, analytical thinking and problem-solving. With the growth of the drone industry in the country, the advent of drone pilot training needs to be accessible to more people. 10. The role of manufacturers The following activities were found to be common for drone manufacturers (Figure 7):

• Materials development and configuration, • Body mould development, • Assembly,

• Customisation, • Distribution, and • Service and maintenance.

Figure 7. Ecosystem of the drone industry.

Manufacturers have spent more than two years in research and development to configure their various UAVs. For their materials, the drone body is commonly made of carbon fibre and fibreglass. Airframes can be outsourced from local companies; and parachutes are made by local seamstresses. The body of the UAV is manufactured in two ways: using a mould to design specifications, or manual manipulation of the materials. The parts are assembled and customised to the manufacturer’s design. Sales and distribution occur from the companies, while manufacturers provide support and repairs as a standard. 11. The skills that are required for the drone industry The constant evolution of drone technology can be modelled in terms of technology generations. The first generation describes the simplest form of remotely controllable aircraft. The second generation is the drone consisting of a static design, a fixed camera mount, capabilities for capturing footage and photographs, as well as the ability to be piloted using manual control. The third generation includes those UAVs with a static design and bi-axis gimbals, with HD video and assisted piloting. The fourth generation has transformative design, a tri-axis gimbal, 1080 HD or higher-value video instrumentation, with improvements in the safety modes and the autopilot modes. The fifth generation also boasts transformative designs, with 360° gimbals and 4K video or higher value instrumentation, with intelligent piloting modes. The sixth generation advancements include suitability for commercial use, a design that is based on safety and regulatory standards, platform and payload adaptability, automated safety modes, intelligent piloting models, full autonomy and spacial awareness. Finally, the next generation of drones will boast total commercial suitability, full compliance to safety and regulatory standards, interchangeability between platform and payload, automated safety modes, enhanced intelligent piloting models and full autonomy, full airspace awareness, auto action [take-off, land, and mission execution] (Insider Intelligence 2021). The swift evolution of these technologies exhibits evident growth in the industry, making drone usage safer and more dependable. Mass adoption will also

DroneResearch& Development

Materials& Parts

Assembly & Customisation Programming

Electronics

Pilots

be more prevalent as legislation adapts, but the market for civilian and humanitarian drones is likely to remain relatively small while these changes occur.

Table 2. Skills required for drone industry involvement. Activity / Output Skill Required Training Required

Flying UAVs Pilots RPL

Drone design and concept,

build and testing

Engineer (Mechanical, Electrical,

Aeronautical, Mechatronic,

Aviatrician)

BSc, BTech

Drone building and assembly Technician Various, NCV, Experience,

In-house

All electrical aspects of the

flight

Electrician NDip, NCV

Design and / or management

of drone software

Software Developer Various, NCV, Experience,

In-house

Drone building and assembly Fitter NCV

Drone building and assembly Turner NCV

The drone industry requires various skills (Table 2), all of which are currently available in the South African higher education. Qualifications such as most engineering degrees, BTech, technician certificates and Remote Piloting Licence are high indicators for entry into the commercial drone industry. All industry leaders indicate that specialisation based in experience is a high indicator for entry; for example, agricultural college graduates learn to fly drones for crop spraying, using drones to innovate in their chosen specialisation.

Table 3. Total RPL output per ATO interviewed.

Total RPL Output

ATO1 ± 249 ATO2 ±500 ATO3 ± 600 ATO4 ± 700

TOTAL= 2 049 Mean 363.3 Ave. per year 90.8

Figure 8. ATO reported approximate number of RPLs obtained 2015-2019.

The number of licensed drone pilots continues to increase as there are new ATOs registered annually (Figure 8). These houses of capacity building are essential for the national skills requirement in the drone industry. 12. Growing the South African drone industry The precursor to a thriving drone industry is a well-developed ecosystem that supports innovation at all levels and the development of new start-ups. The following are the areas through which the South African drone ecosystem must be developed: a. Hardware: Platform manufacturers (local and global), distributors and resellers, maintenance,

component manufacturers, retailers, sensors, cameras, power, propulsion, and airframe manufacturers.

b. Software: Developers and vendors, flight planning, computer vision, navigation, data processing, workflows and analytics.

c. Regulators: SACAA, ICASA, information regulator, industry regulators like PSIRA, mining regulator, surveying, NRCS, SABS and SARS.

d. Skills and knowledge management: Accredited training organisations, other training organisations, research institutions, training and tests sites, Sector Education and Training Authorities (SETAs) and higher education institutions.

e. Sectoral use cases: Current use cases, and emerging and future use cases. f. Media: Publications, news providers, podcasts, blogs, magazines, forums and webinars. g. Unmanned traffic management: Counter-UAS solutions and platforms, UTM service providers

and ATC. h. Professional service providers: Management consultants, regulatory compliance and business

service providers. i. Drone service providers (DSPs): ROC holders, Non-ROC service providers, data processors and

data analysts. j. Events: Conferences and exhibitions.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

ATO1 ATO2 ATO3 ATO4

RPL output

k. Industry bodies: Local bodies, continental, international − ICAO, CANSO and AUVSI. l. Telecommunication: Mobile network operators and radio communication. m. Financial services: Insurance underwriters, brokers, financiers, equipment rental and leasing. n. Urban air mobility: Drone deliveries, passenger drones and platform manufacturers. o. Sport and recreation: Platform manufacturers and drone racing. p. Entrepreneurship: Incubators, accelerators, innovation hubs, digital hubs, VCs, angel investors,

enterprise development funds, DFIs and investment promotion agencies (IPAs). These factors will support and sustain the growth of the drone industry in South Africa by stimulating new start-ups and driving investments. 13. Drone development in SA The drone technology ecosystem must be strongly led by organised business, aviation agencies and relevant government departments and, importantly, involve independent sector specialists who have expertise within their respective sector or industry. A holistic approach to meeting national skills development needs can only be achieved if role players in governance and leadership capacities are able to drive the national skills development system in the long run, in such a way that it is not confined to individual sector or economic interests. Good governance and leadership must also ensure that the financial undertakings of the system are above board. South Africa imports most of its technology and in this case, the largest authorised distributor and retailer of drones is DJI, which is based in China. There are some local companies such as Altinuas, Aerial Monitoring Solutions (AMS), Haevic, ALTI and EasyUAV, which have started manufacturing drones but are not based in KwaZulu-Natal. The future skills system needs to address challenges of mismatched qualifications, possibly even developing specialist qualifications and sponsoring programmes at postgraduate level for key occupations within the system. Recruitment and retention strategies will be needed to staff the system with people capable of elevating performance and impact. Vocational educational institutions, such as TVET colleges, can address the skills shortage in South Africa. The subsector has the potential to address the lack of middle level skills, while bringing to the fore those programmes which can bring about growth in technology. Colleges must begin to introduce well-rounded systems knowledge in order to produce an output of graduates who are technologically capable and well-versed in current aspects of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. An increasingly interconnected and collaborative approach to skills development will lead to improved employment outcomes for TVET graduates as well as addressing key industrial skills shortages. TVET colleges must have strong linkages with local employers and programmes that address the needs of learners and employers. Universities must also have such links, with students having continuing access to the workplace experience and learning appropriate to their studies and career plans. Students who achieve qualifications with TVET-level outcomes should be able to access programmes at higher education level. A critical focus of the system must be continuous increases in the number and quality of work placements, learnerships and internships. If skills are promoted in this manner, it is likely that drone piloting and other specialised qualifications will be developed in TVET colleges for increased accessibility and affordability.

14. Conclusion The drone ecosystem in South Africa is one that can potentially grow along with the global predictions. The industry also has indicators for integration of drone-specialisation for data analysts and various developers. Drone technology must be integrated seamlessly into curriculums for 4IR related subject matters. This could provide the pre-emptive skills availability and foster innovation for various and new drone technology applications. South Africa has most of the prevalent industries for UAV usage, including agriculture, mining, construction, security and health or medical deliveries. Government departments and agencies are moving towards certification, increasing skills capacity of their work forces to engage in drone technologies in relevant manners, such as emergency rescue and medical deliveries. This trend must be encouraged for all South African regions to fully capacitated and relevant. South Africa has also shown its participation in the innovation and development of drone manufacturing for export purposes, which can be an economic boost for affordability and quality reasons. Therein lies an opportunity to become a continental drone manufacturing centre for excellence, and this must be fostered by training up excellent drone designers, assemblers and aeronautical engineers. The risks remain of over-regulation, which can lead to a stalled industry, but safety continues to be a priority for both authorities and UAV users and makers alike. Growth in the industry will also be seen as more skilled pilots and manufacturers are exposed to drone technology in the years to come.

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