developing labour health policy: what does the evidence tell us?

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© Nuffield Trust Developing Labour Health Policy: what does the evidence tell us? Ruth Thorlby, Nuffield Trust

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Ruth Thorlby, Nuffield Trust May 2012

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Page 1: Developing Labour Health Policy: what does the evidence tell us?

© Nuffield Trust

Developing Labour Health Policy: what does the evidence tell us? • Ruth Thorlby, Nuffield Trust

Page 2: Developing Labour Health Policy: what does the evidence tell us?

© Nuffield Trust

Total inpatient waiting list, England 1996-2009

Source: Thorlby and Maybin eds., A High Performing NHS? King’s Fund

Page 3: Developing Labour Health Policy: what does the evidence tell us?

© Nuffield Trust

Deaths per 100,000 from circulatory diseases, selected OECD countries, 1990-2007

Source: Thorlby and Maybin eds., A High Performing NHS? King’s Fund

Page 4: Developing Labour Health Policy: what does the evidence tell us?

© Nuffield Trust

Changes in average real earnings, selected NHS staff groups, England

Page 5: Developing Labour Health Policy: what does the evidence tell us?

© Nuffield Trust

The Scale of the Challenge

Estimating the Nicholson Challenge for Health and Social Care in England 2011-12 to 2021-22

2003

/04

2004

/05

2005

/06

2006

/07

2007

/08

2008

/09

2009

/10

2010

/11

2011

/12

2012

/13

2013

/14

2014

/15

2015

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2016

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2017

/18

2018

/19

2019

/20

2020

/21

2021

/22

Social Care Funding Social Care Pressures Health Funding Health Pressures

Page 6: Developing Labour Health Policy: what does the evidence tell us?

© Nuffield Trust

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2

2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

Ad

mis

sio

ns

Pe

r P

ers

on

Year

Diab

CHD

Epilepsy

COPD

Arthritis

HeartFailure

MH

Asthma

Dementia

Stroke

Average Number of Admissions Per Person Per Yearby Condition (Renal & Cancer Omitted)

Page 7: Developing Labour Health Policy: what does the evidence tell us?

© Nuffield Trust

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

Ad

mis

sio

ns

Pe

r P

ers

on

Year

Elective Admission

Non-Elective Admissions

Average Number of Admissions Per Person From 2004/05 to 2009/10

Page 8: Developing Labour Health Policy: what does the evidence tell us?

Trends in adult prevalence of obesity (BMI ≥30kg/m2) – percentage of the adult population assessed as obese in a selection of countries(NOO based on OECD data)

In 2009 an estimated 61% of adults (aged 16 and over) were overweight or obese (National Obesity Observatory)

Page 9: Developing Labour Health Policy: what does the evidence tell us?

© Nuffield Trust

NHS Expenditure

GPs9%

Other Secondary

7%

Prescribing9%

Other Primary6%

Acute and A&E47%

MentalIllness10%

Community10%

Maternity3%

Page 10: Developing Labour Health Policy: what does the evidence tell us?

© Nuffield Trust

Changes in satisfaction with the way the NHS is run, 1993-1997

Source: Thorlby and Maybin eds., A High Performing NHS? King’s Fund

Page 11: Developing Labour Health Policy: what does the evidence tell us?

© Nuffield Trust

Changes in number of NHS Staff, England 1998-2008

Page 12: Developing Labour Health Policy: what does the evidence tell us?

© Nuffield Trust

Patients aware of choice 2006-2009

Page 13: Developing Labour Health Policy: what does the evidence tell us?

© Nuffield Trust

Changes in inputs, outputs and quality adjusted productivity, UK NHS