determinants of poverty depth among households in rural and urban nigeria awopeju samson o....

Determinants of Poverty Depth among Households in Rural and Urban Nigeria

Awopeju Samson O. (Corvinus University&UniBonn/ Regional Support Consultant UNCCD)

Prof. Imre Ferto (Corvinus University, Budapest, Hungary)

Presentation at the EADI 14th GENERAL CONFERENCE, JUNE, BONN, 2014.

2EADI-GC2014, 19 April 2023

OUTLINE

Introduction

Objective.

Methodology-study area, data sources, analytical methods.

Results and Discussions

Conclusions


INTRODUCTION An estimated 1.2 billion people are still living below $1.25 a day in developing

countries- (World-Bank press release 2013).

Sub Saharan Africa as a continent has a tragic record of highest incidence of poverty , currently at 48 percent of its population. In 1991 poverty was 58 percent. (World-Bank press release 2013).

Some Good News The number of people living on less than $1.25 per day has declined dramatically in

the past three decades.

From half the citizens in the developing world in 1981 to 21 percent in 2010 despite a 59 percent increase in the developing world population. (World-Bank press release 2013).


BUT??? Not every developing nations has witnessed steady decrease in poverty. NIGERIA is a

good example.

PARADOX ! A nation blessed with major economic resources that drive global economy Petroleum, tin, columbite, iron ore, coal, limestone, lead, zinc, natural gas and forests and good Agricultural lands).

Currently largest economy in Africa

Source: Nigeria's National Bureau of Statistics


OBJECTIVE

Central focus : examine the determinants of poverty status among households in Nigeria both at the national and sectorial level employing household socio-economic and regional characteristics.

Specifically the study:

Estimated incidences, depth and severity of poverty among Nigerians at the national, rural and urban regions.

Assessed the determinants of poverty depth among households in Nigeria at the national level.

Examined the determinants of poverty depth among households in Nigeria at both the rural and urban sectors


Motivation for the study

National Burea of statistics NBS (Nigeria) utilized National Consumption Expenditure survey data 2009/2010 --------to estimate poverty incidence for Nigeria but did not capture depth, severity and determinants of poverty.

This study is an attempt to fill that gap, by estimating the depth, severity and determinants of poverty at the rural, urban and national level.

Data : 2009/2010 Consumption Expenditure Survey (38,700 households) from National Bureau of Statistics NBS, Nigeria.

Limitation

At the time study was conducted there was no access to Harmonized National Living Standard Survey (HNLSS) which includes other welfare variables like education status, assets of households, access to credits e.t.c

The study employed relative poverty line though absolute poverty line is considered better and more objective.


ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUE


RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

Source: own computation based on National Consumption Expenditure Data 2009/2010

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RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

Source: own computation based on National Consumption Expenditure Data 2009/2010

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Variables Coefficients t-ratioHousehold Size 0.0912512 84.27** *

Gender(Male) -0.037855 -3.78* *

Age of household head 0.0046764 5.36** *

Total Remittances Received -3.57e-8 -9.31** *

Marital Status 0.0105012 1.03

North -Central -0.1051182 -13.23 ** *

South -East -0.1361191 -15.50** *

South -South -0.0693516 -8.26** *

South West -0.047192 -5.32** *

Sector (Rural) 0.2017716 32.52

Log Likelihood = -16105.212 , Pseudo R2 = 0.2763, Prob > Chi2 = 0.0000

Determinants of Poverty Depth in Nigeria

Notes: ***t-ratio Significant at 1% level, ** significant at 5% level

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Variables Coefficients t-ratioHousehold Size 0.0896476 77.54** *

Gender(Male) -0.0244319 -2.15* *

Age of household head 0.0060493 6.40** *

Total Remittances Received -0.0000000291 -6.65** *

Marital Status 0.0156136 1.38

North -Central -0.1048941 -12.73 ** *

South -East -0.1367113 -14.82** *

South -South -0.0628685 -7.18** *

South West -0.0375136 -3.49** *

Log Likelihood = -12242.307 , Pseudo R2 = 0.2663, Prob > Chi2 = 0.0000

Determinants of Poverty Depth in Rural Nigeria

Notes: ***t-ratio Significant at 1% level, ** significant at 5% level

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Variables Coefficients t-ratio

Household Size 0.1023838 33.61***

Gender -0.0724538 -3.24***

Total Remittances Received -5.57E-08 -6.50***

Age of household head -0.0005749 -0.25

Marital Status -0.0130128 -0.54

North -Central -0.1252555 -4.63***

North -West -0.1314371 -5.04***

South -East -0.1331358 -4.68***

South -South -0.1167776 -4.16***

South West -0.0996916 -4.17***

Log Likelihood = -3766.883, Pseudo R2 = 0.1979 , Prob > Chi2 = 0.0000

Determinants of Poverty Depth in Urban Nigeria

Notes: ***t-ratio Significant at 1% level

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CONCLUSIONSStudy found out that male headed households were better off than their

female counterparts in reducing poverty status.

Poverty is more predominant in rural Nigeria and living in rural areas aggravates the poverty situation of households.

Northern Nigeria is poorer than Southern Nigeria.

Larger household size had a positive and significant impact on poverty status of households.

Remittances received by households had a negative and significant effect on poverty status of households although the impact is weak.

*Further study is required to include other important variables

15EADI-GC2014, 19 April 2023

Thank you for your attention!