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Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015

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Page 1: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

Detailed Survey Results — 3Q 2015

Page 2: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Survey Background

Conducted between August 4-24, 2015

Quarterly Survey

CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers)

AICPA members in Business & Industry only

1440 qualified responses

Page 3: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Survey Highlights

CPA Outlook Index eases a point overall, maintaining consistency across

most measures

• Overall index decreased from 72 to 71

• US economy optimism index component declined a point from 68 to 67 in Q3 after

falling 12 points in Q2 from a high of 80 in Q1 2015

• The organization optimism and expansion plan indices maintained their same level

as Q2 at 73 and 72, respectively

Revenue and profit indicators increase; spending plans mixed

• Revenue index increases a point from 75 to 76, and profit index increases two points

from 69 to 71

• Hiring component continues to be softest at 66, easing another point from 67 at Q2

• Spending continues to be strong, although training spending eased two points from

71 to 69

Optimism mixed across sectors; small company expansion plans improve

• Optimism in retail and wholesale trade fell back from Q2 highs; optimism in

manufacturing and construction remained consistent with Q2 levels

• In Q3 61% of companies with revenues < $10 million expect to expand their

business, recovering from a Q2 drop to only 47%

• Also consistent with Q2, only 3% of companies overall expect to ‘contract a lot’ over

the coming year, compared to 12% in Q1

Page 4: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Page 5: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

CPA Outlook Index

The CPA Outlook Index is the composite of the following nine

indicators at equal weights:• U.S. Economy Optimism - Respondent optimism about the U.S. economy

• Organization Optimism - Respondent optimism about prospects for their own organization

• Expansion Plans - Respondent expectations of whether their business will expand over the

next 12 months

• Revenue - Expectations for increases or decreases in revenue over the next 12 months

• Profits - Expectations for increases or decreases in profits over the next 12 months

• Employment - Expectations for increases or decreases in headcount over the next 12 months

• IT Spending - Plans for IT spending over the next 12 months

• Other Capital Spending - Plans for capital spending over the next 12 months

• Training & Development - Plans for spending on employee training and development over the

next 12 months

A reading above 50 indicates a generally positive outlook with increasing activity.

A reading below 50 indicates a generally negative outlook with decreasing

activity.

The CPA Outlook Index is a robust measure of sentiment about the U.S. economy that is supported by the unique insight and knowledge that CEOs, CFOs, Controllers, and other CPA executives have about the prospects for their own organizations, their expectations for revenues and profits, and their plans for spending and employment.

Page 6: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

CPA Outlook Index (CPAOI)

3Q104Q101Q112Q113Q114Q111Q122Q123Q124Q121Q132Q133Q134Q131Q142Q143Q144Q141Q152Q153Q15

CPA OutlookIndex

59 62 69 66 58 64 69 67 63 59 66 69 69 69 70 72 75 78 74 72 71

5962

6966

58

64

6967

6359

6669 69 69 70

7275

7874

72 71

CPA

Outlook

Index - 71

Page 7: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

CPA Outlook Index Component Indicators

Component 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 ∆Q to Q ∆Y to Y

U.S. Economic Optimism 69 78 80 68 67 01 02

Organization Optimism 78 80 76 73 73 00 05

Expansion Plans 79 81 74 72 72 00 07

Revenue 82 85 78 75 76 01 06

Profits 74 79 72 69 71 02 03

Employment 70 73 68 67 66 01 04

IT Spending 79 80 76 77 77 00 02

Other Capital Spending 74 75 71 72 72 00 02

Training & Development 73 75 70 71 69 02 04

Total CPAOI 75 78 74 72 71 01 04

Page 8: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

CPA Outlook Index (CPAOI) vs GDP

4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15

CPA OutlookIndex

69 70 72 75 78 74 72 71

Changein GDP

2.40% -2.10% 4.60% 3.90% 2.20% 0.60% 3.70%

-10.00%

-8.00%

-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

GDP GrowthCPA Outlook Index

Page 9: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Page 10: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Outlook for the U.S. and Organizations

Optimism for the U.S. Economy falls below 50% • The percentage of executives optimistic about the US Economy declined further from

52% in Q2 to 48%in Q3, down from highs of 64% in Q4, 2014, and 68% in Q1, 2015

• Construction, employment and lower oil prices were cited as reasons for optimism

• Lingering concerns about regulation/leadership/political gridlock and about global

economic turmoil were cited as the primary reasons for those with pessimistic views

Organizational optimism and expansion plans maintain levels• Optimism about own company prospects increased a point to 59%, after tapering off

in Q2 from a high of 67% in Q4, 2014

• The percentage of companies expecting their business to expand decreased another

point from 61% in Q2 to 60% in Q2

• However, the percentage of companies expecting their businesses to contract

significantly remained constant with Q2, at 3%

Inflation concerns remain low • Only 25% are concerned about inflation, slightly higher than 23% at Q1 and Q2

• Concern about labor costs returned as the most pressing concern for 36% of

respondents after being displaced by raw materials costs (now 21%) in Q2

• Concern about energy costs (11%) declined by 5 points in Q3, while concern about

interest rates (24%) increased another 3 points

Page 11: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Optimism & Expansion

US, Organization, Expansion

3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15

US 21% 28% 48% 33% 9% 19% 43% 34% 22% 21% 32% 49% 44% 38% 49% 51% 52% 64% 68% 52% 48%

Organization 46% 51% 57% 54% 41% 45% 55% 54% 44% 41% 50% 57% 55% 57% 59% 61% 65% 67% 63% 58% 59%

Expansion 54% 58% 66% 61% 53% 59% 61% 61% 56% 50% 58% 62% 62% 62% 63% 64% 68% 71% 64% 61% 60%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Page 12: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

For your business, are you more

concerned about inflation or deflation?

24%

34%

55%

61%

38%

43%

37%

33% 32% 31%36%

30%35%

31% 29%32%

38%

27%23% 23%

25%20%

14%

5% 4%

13% 11%

6%9% 10% 9%

6% 7% 7% 7% 8% 6% 5%10%

12%10% 10%

3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Inflation or Deflation?

Inflation Deflation

For your business, over the next 6

months, are you more concerned

about the possibility of …?

Page 13: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Food costsEnergycosts

Raw materialcosts

Labor costsInterest

ratesOther

3Q14 5% 11% 23% 30% 25% 6%

4Q14 4% 14% 23% 34% 21% 4%

1Q15 3% 11% 20% 36% 24% 6%

2Q15 3% 16% 28% 26% 21% 6%

3Q15 4% 11% 21% 36% 24% 5%

5%

11%

23%

30%

25%

6%4%

14%

23%

34%

21%

4%3%

11%

20%

36%

24%

6%

3%

16%

28% 26%

21%

6%4%

11%

21%

36%

24%

5%

Inflationary Factor Representing the Most Significant Risk to your Business

Inflationary Risks and Costs

Page 14: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Page 15: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Key Performance Indicators

Outlooks for revenue and profit recover slightly in Q3

• Expected revenue increase improves from 3.2% to 3.3% ; expected profit increase

also improves from 2.4% to 2.6%

Headcount plans ease slightly; salary and benefit, and healthcare

costs remained essentially constant

• Headcounts are now expected to increase by 1.3% over the next twelve months,

easing another two tenths this quarter from the post-recession high projection of

2.1% projection at Q4, 2014

• Expected increases in salary and benefit costs eased a tenth to 2.0% in Q3

• Anticipated healthcare cost remains constant at 5.8%

• Expected “other input prices” increased another 2 tenths to 2.2%, but the expected

ability to increase “prices charged” also improved from 1.4% to 1.6% in Q3

Key spending plans mixed

• Increased spending for IT continues to be the strongest category and remained

relatively consistent with Q1 and Q2, easing only a tenth to 3.0%

• Other capital spending plans increased a tenth over Q1 and Q2 from 2.4% to 2.5%

• Expected increase in training spending fell off to 1.4% after recovering to 1.8% in Q2

Marketing spending plans returned to the Q1 level of 1.6%

• R&D spending increased a full half a point from 1.2% in Q2 to 1.7% in Q3, a new

post-recession high

Page 16: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Key Performance Indicators

Expected Growth in

Revenue and Profits

3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15

Revenue 2.1% 2.4% 3.7% 3.4% 2.4% 2.8% 3.5% 3.1% 2.6% 2.1% 3.0% 3.1% 3.3% 3.6% 3.6% 3.8% 4.4% 4.7% 3.6% 3.2% 3.3%

Profit 1.9% 2.0% 2.9% 2.5% 1.7% 2.4% 2.9% 2.6% 2.2% 1.4% 2.1% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 2.9% 2.9% 3.6% 3.9% 2.8% 2.4% 2.6%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Thinking about the coming 12 months, please

comment on the probable change for your

organization for …

Page 17: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Employees, Salary & Benefits

and Healthcare Costs

3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15

Employees 0.5% 0.6% 1.5% 1.1% 0.9% 1.2% 1.5% 1.1% 0.8% 0.5% 1.1% 1.0% 1.3% 1.2% 1.5% 1.3% 1.8% 2.1% 1.6% 1.5% 1.3%

Salary & Benefits 1.6% 1.7% 2.0% 2.2% 1.9% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.4% 2.5% 2.0% 2.1% 2.0%

Healthcare 6.6% 7.0% 6.7% 6.6% 6.4% 6.0% 6.2% 6.3% 6.4% 6.4% 6.3% 6.7% 6.8% 6.6% 6.2% 5.7% 6.6% 5.9% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Thinking about the coming 12 months, please

comment on the probable change for your

organization …

Page 18: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Pricing & Other Costs

Average Change Expected

3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15

Prices Charged 0.8% 1.2% 1.4% 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.3% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.4% 1.4% 1.6%

Input Prices 1.6% 2.2% 2.6% 2.8% 2.3% 2.1% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 1.8% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.2%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Thinking about the coming 12 months, please

comment on the probable change for your

organization …

Page 19: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Spending Plans

IT, Other Capital & Training

3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15

IT 1.6% 1.8% 2.3% 2.6% 2.0% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.4% 2.1% 2.7% 2.8% 2.7% 2.9% 3.2% 3.1% 3.3% 3.3% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0%

Other Capital 1.0% 1.4% 2.1% 2.0% 1.4% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 1.7% 1.3% 1.9% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.9% 3.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5%

Training 0.2% 0.4% 1.3% 1.1% 0.5% 1.2% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.7% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1.8% 2.0% 2.2% 1.6% 1.8% 1.4%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Thinking about the coming 12 months,

please comment on the probable

change for your organization for …

Page 20: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Spending Plans

Marketing & R&D

3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15

Marketing 1.1% 1.1% 1.6% 1.5% 1.1% 1.8% 1.8% 1.5% 1.1% 1.0% 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.8% 1.6% 1.8% 1.6%

R&D 0.9% 1.1% 1.5% 1.0% 0.8% 0.9% 1.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.7%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Thinking about the coming 12 months, please

comment on the probable change for your

organization for …

Page 21: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Page 22: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Hiring Plans

Hiring concerns return

• 52% of all companies say they have the appropriate number of

employees, which is down 3% from Q2, 2015 and roughly the levels at

Q2, Q3 and Q4, 2014

• The number of companies with too many employees dropped a point

from 9% to 8%

• Roughly a third (38%) have too few employees

- The percentage of companies reluctant to hire increased to 20% in

Q3, up from 14% in Q2

- The number of companies planning to hire new employees also

eased slightly from 21% in Q2 to 18% in Q3

Page 23: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Overall staff situation

relative to your needs

We have an excessnumber ofemployees

We haveapproximately the

appropriate numberof employees

We have too fewemployees, but arehesitating to hire

We have too fewemployees and are

planning to hireOther

3Q14 9% 51% 18% 20% 2%

4Q14 9% 51% 14% 23% 3%

1Q15 10% 52% 15% 21% 2%

2Q15 9% 55% 14% 21% 1%

3Q15 8% 52% 20% 18% 2%

9%

51%

18% 20%

2%

9%

51%

14%

23%

3%

10%

52%

15%

21%

2%

9%

55%

14%

21%

1%

8%

52%

20%18%

2%

Given current conditions, how would you

characterize your overall staffing situation

relative to your needs (i.e., do you have excess

capacity or are employees stretched)?

Page 24: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Page 25: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Top Challenges Facing Organizations

Regulatory requirements/changes and employee and benefits costs

maintain the #1 and #2 slots

Availability of skilled personnel moved up another slot to #3, trading

places with domestic economic conditions, which fell from #3 to #4,

Domestic competition maintained its #5 ranking, while domestic

political leadership declined two slots from #7 to #9

Stagnant/declining markets, developing new products/services/

markets and changing customer preferences followed in the #6, #7,

and #8 slots

Materials, supplies and equipment costs fell out of the top ten in Q3

However, global economic conditions reappeared for the first time

since Q3 2014, at the #10 spot

Page 26: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Top Challenges for OrganizationsPlease indicate the top three

challenges for your organization

3Q 14 4Q 14 1Q 15 2Q 15 3Q 15

1Regulatory

requirements/changes

Regulatory

requirements/changes

Regulatory

requirements/changes

Regulatory

requirements/changes

Regulatory

requirements/changes

2Domestic economic

conditions

Availability of skilled

personnelDomestic competition

Employee and benefits

costs

Employee and benefits

costs

3Availability of skilled

personnel

Employee and benefits

costs

Employee and benefits

costs

Domestic economic

conditions

Availability of skilled

personnel

4Employee and benefits

costsDomestic competition

Availability of skilled

personnel

Availability of skilled

personnel

Domestic economic

conditions

5 Domestic competitionDomestic economic

conditions

Domestic economic

conditionsDomestic competition Domestic competition

6Domestic political

leadership

Developing new

products/services/markets

Domestic political

leadership

Developing new

products/services/marketsStagnant/declining markets

7Global economic

conditions

Domestic political

leadership

Developing new

products/services/markets

Domestic political

leadership

Developing new

products/services/markets

8Developing new

products/services/markets

Changing customer

preferences

Changing customer

preferences

Materials/supplies/

equipment costs

Changing customer

preferences

9 Stagnant/declining marketsMaterials/supplies/

equipment costsStagnant/declining markets

Financing (access/cost of

capital)

Domestic political

leadership

10Materials/supplies/

equipment costsStaff turnover

Materials/supplies/

equipment costs

Changing customer

preferences

Global economic

conditions

Page 27: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Page 28: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Industry, Region and Business-size Outlook - 1 of 2

Optimism mixed across sectors

• Retail trade optimism fell to 65% in Q3, consistent with 2014 levels, after topping

the charts at 85% optimistic in Q2. Retail hiring also fell, but continues to be

relatively strong at 2.6%, ranking third among key sectors

• Wholesale trade also declined in Q3 from 65% optimistic in Q2, returning to the

Q1 level of 54%.

• Manufacturing eased another 2 points in Q3 from 55% optimistic in Q2 to 53% in

Q3

• Construction maintained the same level of optimism as Q2 at 64% optimistic.

However, the expected increase in headcount in construction for the coming 12

months fell back to only 1.2% in Q3 after rebounding to 3.2% in Q2, 2015

• Technology hiring also fell to only 1.1% in Q3, after improving to 2.6% in Q2, in

spite of a recovery in optimism from 60% to 67% in Q3

• Banking is also projecting a headcount decrease of .9%, a decline from a 1.5%

increase projected in Q2, 2015

Page 29: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Industry, Region and Business-size Outlook - 2 of 2

Other Sectors

• Professional Services optimism improved from 64% to 68%. However, the

expected headcount eased from 1.9% in Q2 to 1.5% in Q3.

• Mining and Natural Resources respondents are now projecting a .9% increase

in headcount for the coming 12 months after projecting a decrease in headcount

of 2.7% in Q2.

Optimism in West recovers; South continues to decline

• West recovers from 57% to 63%, now leading regional optimism

• Midwest and Northeast follow closely at 61% and 62%, respectively

• The South remains soft, declining 2 points from 56% in Q2 to 54% in Q3

Expansion plans recover strongly for smallest of companies

• The number of companies with revenues < $10 million having expansion plans

increased from 47% in Q2 to 61% in Q3

• The percentage of companies with revenues > $1 billion recovered 3 points in Q3,

improving from 53% to 56%

• The $10-$100 million range of companies eased from 66% to 62%, and the $100

billion to $1 billion range of companies also eased from 65% to 60% in Q3

• Consistent with Q2, only 3% of companies overall expect to ‘contract a lot’,

compared to 19% in Q1

Page 30: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Organization Optimism by Industry

62%52%

59% 62%67% 66% 69%

85%

65%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15

Retail Trade

58% 56%48% 49%

61% 66%54%

65%54%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15

Wholesale Trade

56%66% 66% 62%

72% 71%63%

55% 53%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15

Manufacturing

56%

69%

80%72%

58%50%

80%

60%67%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15

Technology

Page 31: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Organization Optimism by Industry

54% 53%62% 64%

76%68% 72%

64% 68%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15

Professional Service

61% 56%

71%64% 61%

71%66%

74%65%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15

Finance & Insurance

56% 55%64%

69% 70%64% 68% 65%

69%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15

Real Estate

59%67%

73% 69% 69%78%

83%

64% 64%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15

Construction

Page 32: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Organization Optimism by Industry

52% 50%43%

55%

71% 75%

56%50%

67%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15

Health Care Other

37% 37% 34%

48% 50%

65%

49% 47%

69%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15

Health Care Provider

Page 33: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Expected Employment Change

by industry

Thinking about the coming 12 months, please

comment on the probable change for your

organization for Number of Employees

1.5%

-2.7%

2.6%

3.2%

1.9%

2.0%

2.8%

1.9%

2.4%

4.6%

2.0%

0.7%

-0.9%

0.9%

1.1%

1.2%

1.5%

1.8%

2.3%

2.4%

2.5%

2.6%

3.4%

3.8%

-4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%

TECHNOLOGY

CONSTRUCTION

PROFESSIONAL SERVICES

FINANCE AND INSURANCE

REAL ESTATE PROPERTY

HOSPITALITY AND FOOD

HEALTHCARE PROVIDER

RETAIL TRADE

HEALTHCARE OTHER

MANUFACTURING

Q3 Q2

MINING &

NATURAL RESOURCES BANKING

Page 34: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Organization Optimism

by Region

4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15

Midwest 76% 65% 60% 61%

Northeast 66% 68% 59% 62%

South 63% 60% 56% 54%

West 66% 67% 57% 63%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Please select the rating that best describes your

view for the economic outlook for your own

organization for the next 12 months.

Page 35: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Expansion Plans by

Business Size

3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15

< $10 million 51% 54% 61% 53% 50% 54% 55% 58% 50% 44% 52% 53% 56% 56% 56% 59% 59% 65% 59% 47% 61%

$10 to <$100 million 50% 55% 65% 59% 53% 56% 60% 59% 58% 52% 58% 63% 61% 63% 62% 65% 69% 72% 63% 66% 62%

$100 million to <$1 billion 60% 61% 68% 69% 57% 62% 66% 66% 56% 53% 63% 63% 64% 62% 71% 65% 73% 72% 67% 65% 60%

> $1 billion 63% 70% 77% 72% 60% 69% 65% 62% 54% 53% 68% 68% 68% 64% 69% 66% 71% 75% 77% 53% 56%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

50% of all businesses expect to expand a little in the next twelve months 10% expect to expand a lot. 37% expect to contract a little or stay the same Only 3% expect to contract a lot compared to 19% in Q1

Please indicate whether you expect your

business to expand or contract over the

next 12 months

Page 36: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Large businesses are most likely

to have excess employees and

most hesitant to hire

We have an excessnumber ofemployees

We haveapproximately the

appropriate numberof employees

We have too fewemployees, but arehesitating to hire

We have too fewemployees and are

planning to hireOther

< $10 million 9% 65% 10% 15% 1%

$10 to <$100 million 7% 52% 13% 26% 2%

$100 million to <$1 billion 11% 53% 17% 19% 0%

> $1 billion 17% 53% 19% 8% 3%

9%

65%

10%

15%

1%

7%

52%

13%

26%

2%

11%

53%

17%19%

0%

17%

53%

19%

8%

3%

Given current conditions, how would you

characterize your overall staffing situation

relative to your needs (i.e., do you have excess

capacity or are employees stretched)?

Page 37: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Page 38: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Recruiting CompetitionIn your recruiting efforts during the past

several months, what level of competition

are you seeing for candidates as

compared to the end of 2014?

4%

12%

16%

25%

43%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

EASING OF COMPETITION FOR GOOD CANDIDATES

NO CHANGE – HAVE NOT HAD DIFFICULTY HIRING GOOD CANDIDATES

N/A – WE HAVE NOT BEEN HIRING

NO CHANGE – STRONG COMPETITION CONTINUING

INCREASING COMPETITION FOR GOOD CANDIDATES

Page 39: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Employee TurnoverWhat has the experience of your

company been with employee turnover

in 2015?

10%

39%

51%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

TURNOVER HAS TAPERED OFF FROM 2014

TURNOVER HAS CONTINUED TO BE A CONCERN

TURNOVER HAS NOT BEEN AN ISSUE FOR US

Page 40: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Compensation/BenefitsWhat has the experience of your company

in 2014 been in terms of compensation and

benefit costs for hiring?

2%

11%

40%

47%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REDUCE THE LEVELS COMPENSATION AND BENEFITS THAT WE HAD BEEN

OFFERING TO ATTRACT THE DESIRED CANDIDATES

N/A – WE HAVE NOT BEEN HIRING

WE HAVE FOUND IT NECESSARY TO INCREASE OUR COMPENSATION AND BENEFITS TO ATTRACT

DESIRED EMPLOYEES

WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE SAME LEVEL OF COMPENSATION AND BENEFITS OFFERED TO OUR

NEW HIRES

Page 41: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Bonus PaymentsWhat is your current projection for your incentive

compensation and bonus payments for 2015?

11%

13%

18%

58%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

HIGHER THAN INITIALLY PROJECTED

N/A

LOWER THAN INITIAL PROJECTIONS

ON TARGET WITH INITIAL PROJECTIONS

Page 42: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Page 43: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

American Institute of CPAs

Demographics

17%

29%

12%

10%

8%

4%

18%

Size of Organization

$0 to under $10 million

$10 million to under $50 million

$50 million to under $100 million

$100 million to under $250 million

$250 million to under $500 million

$500 million to under $1 billion

$1 billion or more

20%

61%

4%13%

Type of Organization

Publicly Listed Company

Privately Owned Entity

Government

Not for Profit

7%2%

7%

37%

1%

20%

10%

12%

2%

Position

CEO/President

COO

VP

CFO

CAO/CAE

CIO

Controller

Director

Accounting, Audit, Tax or Technology Manager

Other

Page 44: Detailed Survey Results 3Q 2015Detailed Survey Results —3Q 2015 American Institute of CPAs Survey Background Conducted between August 4-24, 2015 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers

For additional information contact:

Kenneth W. Witt, CPA, CGMA Lead Technical Manager, Management Accounting

[email protected]

Cary JonesAssociate Manager

Business, Industry & Government Team [email protected]