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Derivatives Risk Management and Quant Surveillance

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Page 1: Derivatives Risk Management

Derivatives Risk Managementand

Quant Surveillance

Page 2: Derivatives Risk Management

Risk management

Marcello Minenna 2

Risk management of a financial institution

… a complex set of gears related to risk-return of financial instruments

0.100.12

0.140.16

0.10 0.12 0.14 0.160.08

0.08Rischio

Re

nd

ime

nt

o

Page 3: Derivatives Risk Management

Risk management

Marcello Minenna 3

Risk management of a financial institution

… a complex set of gears related to risk-return of financial instruments

0.100.12

0.140.16

0.10 0.12 0.14 0.160.08

0.08Rischio

Re

nd

ime

nt

o… that is simulated through processes

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Marcello Minenna 4

Let us define:

f process of the derivative

S process of the stock

Where:f=f(S,t)

B process of the bond

Risk management: the greek letters

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Let us define:

f process of the derivative

S process of the stock

Where:f=f(S,t)

V replicating portfolio of the derivative

B process of the bond

Let us compute:

Risk management: the greek letters

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Replicating portfolio of the derivative

Where:

Number of stocks

Number of bonds

Risk management: the greek letters

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Definition of the processes

Hp:

Where:

Risk management: the greek letters

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Definition of the processes

Hp:

Where:

Risk management: the greek letters

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Definition of the processes

Hp:

Whose solution is:

Risk management: the greek letters

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Definition of the processes

Hp:

Where:

Risk management: the greek letters

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Applying the definitions of both S and B processes

Risk management: the greek letters

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… multiplying

Risk management: the greek letters

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… multiplying

collecting:

Risk management: the greek letters

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Let us define:

Risk management: the greek letters

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Let us define:

ITO’s process

Risk management: the greek letters

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The SDE associated to f=f(S,t) is obtained by

using ITO’s lemma (Brownian motion differentiating rule)

Risk management: the greek letters

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The SDE associated to

By Substituting the SDE associated to S

we obtain:

f=f(S,t)using ITO’s lemma (Brownian motion differentiating rule)

Risk management: the greek letters

is obtained by

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… simplifying

Risk management: the greek letters

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… simplifying

remembering:

Risk management: the greek letters

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By recalling the hp:

Risk management: the greek letters

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By recalling the hp:

… let us compare the stochastic components:

Risk management: the greek letters

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… that is:

Risk management: the greek letters

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… that is:

=

Risk management: the greek letters

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By remembering:

Risk management: the greek letters

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=

Risk management: the greek letters

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=

Risk management: the greek letters

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=

By substituting in the SDE of V

Risk management: the greek letters

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=

By substituting in the SDE of V

Risk management: the greek letters

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Simplifying:

Risk management: the greek letters

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By recalling the hp:

Risk management: the greek letters

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By recalling the hp:

… let us compare the deterministic components:

Risk management: the greek letters

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=

Risk management: the greek letters

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=

… also known as Black-Scholes PDE

Risk management: the greek letters

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… considering that the dZ

same both for dV and df

component is the

Risk management: the greek letters

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… considering that the dZ

same both for dV and df

component is the

Black-Scholes PDE describes

as time elapses

f=f(S,t)

The derivative can be replicated by

Number of stocks

Number of Bonds

Risk management: the greek letters

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… let us define

Risk management: the greek letters

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… let us define

dV = df

Risk management: the greek letters

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It is important to observe that we can

compute the differential expression

of f=f(S,t) both with Taylor’s formula

and with ITO’s lemma obtaining

the same result

Risk management: the greek letters

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Computation of by means of Taylor’s formula

df

Risk management: the greek letters

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Let us remember that is of order dS

Risk management: the greek letters

Computation of by means of Taylor’s formula

df

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It is possible to extend Taylor’s factorization to

Risk management: the greek letters

Computation of by means of Taylor’s formula

df

Let us remember that is of order dS

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Substituting the definition of in dfdS

Risk management: the greek letters

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Let us focus on:

o(dt)

Risk management: the greek letters

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… simplifying

Risk management: le greche

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Taylor vs.ITO

q.e.d.

Risk management: le greche

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… but if Taylor’sfactorization

leads to the same result of ITO’s

lemma

Risk management: the greek letters

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df=dV

… but if ITO’s lemma has shown that

… that is the value of a derivative can be studied by means of the value of a portfolio constituted by

Number of stocksNumber of bonds

Risk management: the greek letters

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… so let us use Taylor’s factorization in order to study what happens when

without loosing generality

f=f(S,t,

Risk management: the greek letters

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Derivation of with Taylor’s formuladf

We can expand Taylor’s factorization to

Risk management: the greek letters

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… let us define

Risk management: the greek letters

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… let us define

dV = df

Risk management: the greek letters

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… because we have shown that dV = df

In order to avoid differences in the portfolio

Risk management: the greek letters

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… because we have shown that dV = df

In order to avoid differences in the portfolio

dV = df=0

Risk management: the greek letters

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… because we have shown that dV = df

In order to avoid differences in the portfolio

dV = df=0

Risk management: the greek letters

0

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Risk management: the greek letters

0

…hedging in practice is based on the greeks

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Hedging activity in practice

Hp: Black-Scholes’ world

Risk management: the greek letters

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Call Put

Risk management: the greek letters

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S

Risk management: the greek letters

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S

Risk management: the greek letters

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S

Risk management: the greek letters

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S

Risk management: the greek letters

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S

Risk management: the greek letters

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S

Risk management: the greek letters

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Greek letters are additive

Risk management: the greek letters

Porfolio Greek Greek

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hedging

Computation of by means of a first order Taylor’s formula

df

Risk management: the greek letters

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hedging

At time t=0 short 1 call

At maturity the option is

IN – the money

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hedging - short 1 call - IN – the moneyOption and Stock and

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hedging - short 1 call - IN – the money

(flow)(flow)

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hedging

At time t=0 short 1 call

At maturity the option is

OUT – the money

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hedging - short 1 call - OUT – the moneyOption and Stock and

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hedging - short 1 call - OUT – the money

(Flow)(Flow)

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Investor Education

hedging

Computation of by means of a second order Taylor’s formula

df

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hedging

At time t=0 short 1 call

Let us build our portfolio in order to be neutral

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hedging

At time t=0 short 1 call

Let us build our portfolio in order to be neutral

?How can we build our portfolio

in order to be also neutral

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hedging

… let us follow an iterative logic

Recomposition towards Neutrality

PortfolioNeutral

PortfolioNeutral

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hedging

… this logic is correct because a stock’s is 0

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hedging

… this logic is correct because a stock’s is 0

… in order to let our portfolio be also neutral …

… we need another option

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hedging

… what kind of option?

… an option that matches the shorted option’s

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hedging

… what kind of option?

… an option that matches the shorted option’s

… and that would not cause too many ‘deformations’ to the shorted

option’s delta

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hedging

… what kind of option?

… some remarks

ATM options have the biggest

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Investor Education

S

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hedging

… what kind of option?

… some remarks

of an option fundamentally

decreases as time elapses

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Investor Education

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hedging

… what kind of option?

… some remarks

undergoes some deformations

related to moneyness as time

varies

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Investor Education

S

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hedging

ATM options have the biggest

undergoes some deformations

related to moneyness as time

varies

of an option fundamentally

decreases as time elapses

Let us select short term and ATM options

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hedging

ATM options have the biggest

undergoes some deformations

related to moneyness as time

varies

of an option fundamentally

decreases as time elapses

Let us select short term and ATM options

=Let us dinamically recompose the portfolio with long term and ATM

options

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hedging

Let us select short term and ATM options

Trade-off:

•Transation costs•Trading strategies•Risk limits

Let us dinamically recompose the portfolio with long term and ATM

options

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hedging trough formulas

Time t=0

1 short call (w)Let us define a neutral portfolio ‘A’

1 long option (z)

A = n *

A=0

w

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Time t=0

Portfolio B = Portfolio A + n * z

… what about the greek letters of b?

hedging trough formulas

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Time t=0

=B A N Z+

=BN Z

hedging trough formulas

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Time t=0

=B Z+

=B A N Z+

ww zN N

hedging trough formulas

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… in order to obtain

=B Z+ww zN N

=0B

= Z+ww zN N

hedging trough formulas

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… in order to obtain

=B Z+ww zN N

=0B

= Z+ww zN N

zNw

Z

= -- wN

hedging trough formulas

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… that is in order to have a neutral portfolio

zNw

Z

= --you should buy

options z

hedging trough formulas

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… but it is not the whole story

The new portfolio B will not be neutral

=BN Z

hedging trough formulas

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… but it is not the whole story

The new portfolio B will not be neutral

Let us rebalance the portfolio in order to obtain this result:

= 0c

=BN Z

hedging trough formulas

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hedging

Kurpiel & Roncalli (1998)

hedging referred to time horizons

of 5, 1, ½ days does not supply substantial

advantages in comparison with hedging

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Time t=0

Short 1 call (w)

Let us define a portfolio neutral ‘A’

Long 1 call (z) with

hedging – an example

Tz > Tw Kz > Kw;

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Let us hold the option ‘z’ until maturity

At maturity the option ‘w’ is IN – the money

hedging – an example

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hedging - short 1 call - In – the moneyOption and Stock and

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hedging - short 1 call - In – the moneyPortfolio Portfolio Option

Option* OptionOption Option portfolio

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hedging - short 1 call - In – the moneyPortfolio Stock

Stock andof

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hedging - short 1 call - In – the moneyquantitative composition of the “C” Portfolio, value of &

portfolioportfolio

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hedging - short 1 call - In – the money

(Flow)(Flow) (Flow)

34

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Let us hold the ‘z’ option until maturity

At maturity the option ‘w’ is OUT – the money

hedging – an example

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hedging - short 1 call - out – the moneyOption and Stock and

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hedging - short 1 call - out – the moneyPortfolio Portfolio Option

Option OptionOption Option portfolio

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hedging - short 1 call - out – the moneyPortfolio Stock

Stock andof

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hedging - short 1 call - out – the moneyquantitative composition of the “C” Portfolio, value of &

portfolio portfolio

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hedging - short 1 call - out – the money

(Flow)(Flow) (Flow)

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hedging

Computation of by means of a second order Taylor’s formula, paying attention to volatility

df

hedging

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At time t=0 short 1 call

Let us build our portfolio in order to be neutral

hedging

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At time t=0 short 1 call

Let us build our portfolio in order to be neutral

?How can we build our portfolio in

order to be also neutral

hedging

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… let us follow an iterative logic

Recomposition towards Neutrality

Neutralportfolio

Neutral portfolio

Neutral portfolio

hedging

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… this logic IS NOT correct

… if of a stock is 0

?

… unfortunately the option’s IS NOT 0

hedging

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… this logic IS NOT correct

… we need another option

… if of a stock is 0

?

… unfortunately the option’s IS NOT 0

hedging

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… then we want to obtain a jointly

neutral portfolio

… otherwise we start a loop without solution

hedging

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… it follows the ‘vicious’ loop

Recomposition towards Neutrality

Neutralportfolio

Neutralportfolio

Neutralportfolio

hedging

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… it follows the ‘virtuous’ loop

Recomposition towards Neutrality

Neutralportfolio

Joint useof the 2 options

Neutralportfolio

hedging

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… what kind of options?

hedging

… an option that matches the ‘shorted’ option

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… what kind of options?

… an option that matches the ‘shorted’ option

… and that does not cause too many ‘deformations’ to the delta

of the ‘shorted’ option

hedging

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… what kind of options?

… some remarks

ATM options have the

biggest

hedging

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S

hedging

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… what kind of option?

… some remarks

of an option fundamentally

decreases as time elapses

hedging

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S

hedging

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Let us dinamically recompose the portfolio with long term and ATM

options

ATM options have

the biggest of an option fundamentally

decreases as time elapses

hedging

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Marcello Minenna 128

let us consider

Let us dinamically recompose the portfolio with long term and ATM

options

•Transation costs

•Trading strategies

•Risk limits

•…..

hedging

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Time t=0

Short 1 call (w)Let us define a neutral portfolio ‘A’

Long 1 option (z)

A = n *

A=0

w

Long 1 option (y)

hedging trough formulas

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Time t=0

Portfolio B = Port. A + n * z + n * y

… greek letters of B?

hedging trough formulas

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Time t=0

=B A N Z+

=B

N y+ yZ

N Z N y+ yZ

hedging trough formulas

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Time t=0

A= wwN

Given that:

hedging trough formulas

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Time t=0

A=

wwN

Given that:

hedging trough formulas

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… in order to obtain =0B b=

…that is a neutral portfolio

hedging trough formulas

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hedging trough formulas

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hedging trough formulas

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hedging trough formulas

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Marcello Minenna 138

hedging trough formulas

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hedging trough formulas

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hedging trough formulas

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hedging trough formulas

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… in order to obtain =0B b=

It is necessary to negotiate

z options

Y options

hedging trough formulas

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… but it is not the whole story

The new portfolio B will not be neutral

hedging

=BN Z N y+ yZ

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… but it is not the whole story

The new portfolio B will not be neutral

Let us rebalance the portfolio in order to obtain the following result:

= 0c

hedging

=BN Z N y+ yZ

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Kurpiel & Roncalli (1998)

hedging referred to time horizons of

5, 1, ½ days supplies substantial advantages

in particular under stochastic volatility

hedging

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Let us hold the option ‘z’ until maturity

At maturity the option ‘w’ is OUT – the money

hedging – an example

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hedgingOption and Stock and

Option Option

portfolioportfolio

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Marcello Minenna 148

hedging

portfolio portfolio option option

optionoptionoptionoptionoptionoptionoptionoptionoptionoption portfolioportfolio

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Marcello Minenna 149

hedgingportfolio Stock

Stock and

of

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hedgingquantitative composition of the “C” Portfolio, value of &&

portfolioportfolioportfolio

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hedging

(Flow)(Flow)(Flow) (Flow)

Delta Gamma Vega Hedging Cash Flow

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Let us hold the option ‘z’ until maturity

At maturity the option ‘w’ is IN – the money

hedging – an example

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hedgingOption and Stock and

portfolio portfolio

optionoption

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hedging

option option option option option option option option option option portfolioportfolio

Portfolio Portfolio Option Option

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hedgingStockportfolio

Stock and

of

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hedgingquantitative composition of the “C” Portfolio, value of & &

portfolioportfolioportfolio

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hedging

(Flow)(Flow)(Flow) (Flow)

Delta Gamma Vega Hedging Cash Flow

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Hedging of a financial institution

Risk Management

of a financial institution

Options without closed form

solutions

Risk limits

PROBLEMS

marketfunctioning

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Hedging of a financial institution

Risk Management

of a financial institution

Use of numeric greek letters

Options without closed form

solutions

Risk limits

PROBLEMS

marketfunctioning

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Hedging of a financial institution

What is a numeric greek letter?

… let us leave out the others because they are not so important

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Financial institutions define some bounds in terms of greek letters

with reference to:

Hedging of a financial institution

•security•market

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Some definitions

Hedging of a financial institution

•Anomalous exercise

•Payment by physical delivery

•Payment by cash settlement

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Anomalous exercise

Hedging of a financial institution

The holder of the option can

partially exercise his right

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Payment by phyisical settlement

Hedging of a financial institution

The holder of the option must

deliver the underlying

security

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Cash settlement

Hedging of a financial institution

The holder of the option must

deliver the differential by

cash

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Hedging of a financial institution

Some RemarksCash

settlementKnock-IN terms

Microstructureelements of the

market

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Hedging of a financial institution

Risk Management

of a financial institution

Fine tuning

Some RemarksCash

settlementKnock-IN terms

Microstructureelements of the

market

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Marcello Minenna 168

Hedging of a financial institution

Cases of Micromanipulation

Fine tuning

Some RemarksCash

settlementKnock-IN terms

Microstructureelements of the

market

Risk Management

of a financial institution

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Marcello Minenna 169

Hedging of a financial institution

Risk Management

of a financial

institution

Risk Management

of a financial

institution

CoveredWarrant

Reverse Convertible/

Discount Certificate

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Marcello Minenna 170

Hedging of a financial institution

Risk Management

of a

financial institution

Risk Management

of a

Financial institution

CoveredWarrant

Reverse Convertible

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171

Reverse convertible

… some introductory

remarks …

Marcello Minenna

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172

Reverse Convertible

The issue How the product is sold

issuerInvestitors

Marcello Minenna

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173

Reverse

Convertible

Reverse Convertible is a structured product

unbundling

Marcello Minenna

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174

Reverse convertible - unbundling

Marcello Minenna

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175

Reverse convertible - unbundling

Marcello Minenna

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176

Investor shorts a Put

Reverse convertible – put shorting

Marcello Minenna

Page 177: Derivatives Risk Management

177

Reverse Convertible

The issue

issuerInvestitors

Marcello Minenna

Page 178: Derivatives Risk Management

178

Put shortingObligation

At expiry

Put buyerStock=

Reverse convertible – put shorting

Marcello Minenna

Page 179: Derivatives Risk Management

179

The structure

Reverse Convertible – issue

Marcello Minenna

Page 180: Derivatives Risk Management

180

= =

Reverse Convertible – the structure

Reverse Convertible

stocks

Face valueN.Stocks underlying the put

XStrike price (K) of the Put

Money paid by investors

Marcello Minenna

Page 181: Derivatives Risk Management

181

The put premium is not received by investors when

Buying the product

issuerInvestitors

Reverse Convertible – the structure

Marcello Minenna

Page 182: Derivatives Risk Management

182

…….but at the expiry date

in the form of a maxi-coupon

issuerInvestitors

Reverse Convertible – the structure

Marcello Minenna

Page 183: Derivatives Risk Management

183

Reverse Convertible

Expiry date:

option is OUT-the-money

Marcello Minenna

Page 184: Derivatives Risk Management

184

Reverse Convertible

Expiry dateOption out-of the money

issuerInvestitors

Marcello Minenna

Page 185: Derivatives Risk Management

185

Reverse Convertible

issuerMaxi-coupon

Marcello Minenna

Expiry dateOption out-of the money

Page 186: Derivatives Risk Management

186

Reverse Convertible – expiry date

Maxi-coupon

issue

i% of marketPut Premium

Marcello Minenna

Page 187: Derivatives Risk Management

187

Reverse Convertible

Marcello Minenna

Expiry date:

option is in-the-money

Page 188: Derivatives Risk Management

188

Reverse Convertible

Issuer is long put…..

Marcello Minenna

Page 189: Derivatives Risk Management

189

Pa

y-o

ff

K S

reverse convertible and Put option

issuer

Marcello Minenna

Page 190: Derivatives Risk Management

190

Pa

y-o

ff

K S

issuer

Exercise the option

reverse convertible and Put option

Marcello Minenna

Page 191: Derivatives Risk Management

191

Pa

y-o

ff

K S

K - Sissuer

reverse convertible and Put option

Marcello Minenna

Page 192: Derivatives Risk Management

192

issuer

Azioni

T=0

T=T

Reverse Convertible – expiry date

Page 193: Derivatives Risk Management

Pa

y-o

ff

K S

193

issuer

Pa

y-o

ff K S

K - S

K - S

reverse convertible and Put option

Marcello Minenna

Page 194: Derivatives Risk Management

194

Reverse convertible

… some further

remarks …

Marcello Minenna

Page 195: Derivatives Risk Management

195

Price of the Underlying Security

PotenzialProfit

0

Pay-off

Maxi-coupon / Discount

K

Issuer’s profit or loss1.

Marcello Minenna

Reverse convertible

Page 196: Derivatives Risk Management

Prezzo Sottostante

PerditaPotenziale

00

Pay-off

Maxi-cedola

K Prezzo Sottostante

PerditaPotenziale

00

Pay-off

Maxi-cedola

K

196

Issuer

Investors

Prezzo Sottostante

GuadagnoPotenziale

00

Pay-off

Maxi-cedola

KPrezzo

Sottostante

GuadagnoPotenziale

00

Pay-off

Maxi-cedola

K

Marcello Minenna

Reverse convertible

Price of the underlying security

Price of the underlying security

PotentialProfit

PotentialLoss

Maxi-coupon

Maxi-coupon

Page 197: Derivatives Risk Management

197

2.

not very liquid prices

are based on

the pay-off’s computation method

as an example: opening and closing prices

Marcello Minenna

Reverse convertible

Page 198: Derivatives Risk Management

198

3.

Plain Vanilla

Tipology of structure

Marcello Minenna

Reverse convertible

Knock-IN

Settlement:•Cash

•Physical delivery

Page 199: Derivatives Risk Management

199

4.

They don’t hedge

themselves

hedging choises of financial institutions

Marcello Minenna

Reverse convertible

They hedge

themselves

Page 200: Derivatives Risk Management

200

The issuer does not

hedge the financial risk

connected to the

reverse because ...

4.

Marcello Minenna

Reverse convertible

Page 201: Derivatives Risk Management

201

… because he is

an option’s buyer …

Marcello Minenna

Reverse convertible

Page 202: Derivatives Risk Management

202

… and because

he has fixed

the price

Marcello Minenna

Reverse convertible

Page 203: Derivatives Risk Management

203

MANIPULATI

ONS

generate

4. La mancata copertura

Marcello Minenna

Reverse convertible

Price of the Underlying Security

PotenzialProfit

00

Pay-off

Maxi-coupon / Discount

K

Issuer’s profit or loss1.

Price of the Underlying Security

PotenzialProfit

00

Pay-off

Maxi-coupon / Discount

KPrice of the

Underlying Security

PotenzialProfit

00

Pay-off

Maxi-coupon / Discount

K

Issuer’s profit or loss1.

2.

not very liquid prices

are based on

the pay-off’s computation method

Hedging lack

Page 204: Derivatives Risk Management

204

Manipulate prices

Issuer

Marcello Minenna

Reverse convertible

Prezzo Sottostante

PerditaPotenziale

00

Pay-off

Maxi-cedola

K Prezzo Sottostante

PerditaPotenziale

00

Pay-off

Maxi-cedola

K

Prezzo Sottostante

GuadagnoPotenziale

00

Pay-off

Maxi-cedola

KPrezzo

Sottostante

GuadagnoPotenziale

00

Pay-off

Maxi-cedola

K

Price of the underlying security

Price of the underlying security

PotentialProfit

PotentialLoss

Maxi-coupon

Maxi-coupon

Page 205: Derivatives Risk Management

205

The issuer hedges

the financial risk

connected to

the reverse because ...

4.

Marcello Minenna

Reverse convertible

Page 206: Derivatives Risk Management

206

... because

the purchase of an

option …

Marcello Minenna

Reverse convertible

Page 207: Derivatives Risk Management

207

… is part of the most

general system

of risk management

Marcello Minenna

Reverse convertible

Page 208: Derivatives Risk Management

Marcello Minenna 208

Financial institutions fix limits in Terms of greek letters:

Hedging of a financial institution

•security•market

Page 209: Derivatives Risk Management

Marcello Minenna 209

Financial institutions fix limits in Terms of greek letters:

Hedging of a financial institution

•security •market

The results that we are going toshow are easily extensible

Page 210: Derivatives Risk Management

210Marcello Minenna

Reverse convertible

Case Studies

Plain Vanilla Knock-IN

OTM ATM ITM

settlement:•Cash•Physical settlement

Page 211: Derivatives Risk Management

211Marcello Minenna

Plain Vanilla

OTMATM

ITM

settlement:•Cash•Physical settlement

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Page 212: Derivatives Risk Management

212Marcello Minenna

Plain Vanilla

OTM

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Settlement by physical delivery

Risk Management

Di un intermediario

Fenomeni di Micro-Manipolazionemicro-manipulations

Page 213: Derivatives Risk Management

213Marcello Minenna

Plain Vanilla

OTM

Settlement by cash

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Risk Management

Di un intermediario

Fenomeni di Micro-Manipolazionemicro-manipulations

Page 214: Derivatives Risk Management

214Marcello Minenna

Plain Vanilla

ITM

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Settlement by physical delivery

Risk Management

Di un intermediario

Fenomeni di Micro-Manipolazionemicro-manipulations

Page 215: Derivatives Risk Management

215Marcello Minenna

Plain Vanilla

ITM

Settlement by cash

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Risk Management

Di un intermediario

Fenomeni di Micro-Manipolazionemicro-manipulations

Page 216: Derivatives Risk Management

216

Investors

financial institution is a Puts’ net buyer

Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Issuer

Why is there micro-manipulation?

Page 217: Derivatives Risk Management

217

Issuer

Close to maturity …

It will hold

a large amount of

the stocks underlying

the Put

Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Page 218: Derivatives Risk Management

218

At maturity the option is ITM……

It will hold All the stocks

underlying the Puts

Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Issuer

Page 219: Derivatives Risk Management

219

In order to settle the option’s pay-off …

It will sell all the stocks

So called ‘risk unwinding’

Marcello Minenna

Issuer

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Page 220: Derivatives Risk Management

220

Selling all the stocks ...

It will cause a fall in prices of the security

Marcello Minenna

Issuer

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Page 221: Derivatives Risk Management

221

Driving a fall in prices ...

It will increase

the investor’s loss

Marcello Minenna

Issuer

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Page 222: Derivatives Risk Management

222

A Summary conducted through….

Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Page 223: Derivatives Risk Management

223

Emittente-

MarketMaker

Emittente-

MarketMaker

Emittente-

MarketMaker

Delta Hedging analysis

Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Page 224: Derivatives Risk Management

224

Issuer-

MarketMaker

Issuer-

MarketMaker

Issuer-

MarketMaker

The point of View

Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Page 225: Derivatives Risk Management

225

Price

Time

Quantity

Maturity

Completehedging

Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Page 226: Derivatives Risk Management

226

The point of View

Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Page 227: Derivatives Risk Management

SK

227

Value of the Underlying securityP

ay

-of

f

Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Page 228: Derivatives Risk Management

228

Pa

y-o

ff

K S

Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Loss before maturity

(before Unwinding)

Page 229: Derivatives Risk Management

229

Pa

y-o

ff

K S

Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Loss at maturity

(after Unwinding)

Page 230: Derivatives Risk Management

230

Pa

y-o

ff

K S

Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Loss increment

Page 231: Derivatives Risk Management

231

Issuer

Investors

Marcello Minenna

Reverse convertible

Prezzo Sottostante

PerditaPotenziale

00

Pay-off

Maxi-cedola

K Prezzo Sottostante

PerditaPotenziale

00

Pay-off

Maxi-cedola

K

Prezzo Sottostante

GuadagnoPotenziale

00

Pay-off

Maxi-cedola

KPrezzo

Sottostante

GuadagnoPotenziale

00

Pay-off

Maxi-cedola

K

Price of the underlying security

Price of the underlying security

PotentialProfit

PotentialLoss

Maxi-coupon

Maxi-coupon

Page 232: Derivatives Risk Management

232Marcello Minenna

Plain Vanilla

ATM

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Problems connected to the so called ‘view’

Risk Management

Di un intermediario

Fenomeni di Micro-Manipolazionemicro-manipulations

Page 233: Derivatives Risk Management

233

Financial institutions acts close

both to maturity and strike

Marcello Minenna

They have to choose if it is (or not) the

case to complete the hedging activity

(so called view)

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Page 234: Derivatives Risk Management

234Marcello Minenna

View

ITMpurchase ofthe security

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Settlement by physical delivery

Page 235: Derivatives Risk Management

235Marcello Minenna

View

ITMpurchase ofthe security

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Settlement by physical delivery

ITM

Page 236: Derivatives Risk Management

236Marcello Minenna

View

ITMpurchase ofthe security

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Settlement by physical delivery

ITM

Delivery of the securityneutral

Page 237: Derivatives Risk Management

237Marcello Minenna

View

ITMPurchase ofthe security

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Settlement by cash

Page 238: Derivatives Risk Management

238Marcello Minenna

View

ITMPurchase ofthe security

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Settlement by cash

ITM

Page 239: Derivatives Risk Management

239Marcello Minenna

View

ITMPurchase ofthe security

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Settlement by cash

ITM

Selling of

the securityif

Influence on price

perditaLoss

Page 240: Derivatives Risk Management

240Marcello Minenna

View

ITM

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Profit

Purchase ofthe security

Settlement by cash

ITM

Selling of

the securityif

Influence on price

Page 241: Derivatives Risk Management

241Marcello Minenna

View

ITMPurchase ofthe security

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Page 242: Derivatives Risk Management

242Marcello Minenna

View

ITMPurchase ofthe security

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

OTM

Page 243: Derivatives Risk Management

243Marcello Minenna

View

ITMPurchase ofthe security

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

OTM

Selling of

the securityLoss

Page 244: Derivatives Risk Management

244Marcello Minenna

View

OTM Selling ofthe security

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Page 245: Derivatives Risk Management

245Marcello Minenna

View

OTM Selling ofthe security

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

OTM

Page 246: Derivatives Risk Management

246Marcello Minenna

View

OTM Selling ofthe security

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

OTM

neutral

Page 247: Derivatives Risk Management

247Marcello Minenna

View

OTM Selling of thesecurities

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Settlement by physical delivery

Page 248: Derivatives Risk Management

248Marcello Minenna

View

OTM Selling of thesecurities

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Settlement by physical delivery

ITM

Page 249: Derivatives Risk Management

249Marcello Minenna

View

OTM Selling of thesecurities

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Settlement by physical delivery

ITMPurchase ofthe securitiesloss

Page 250: Derivatives Risk Management

250Marcello Minenna

View

OTM Selling of thesecurities

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Settlement by cash

Page 251: Derivatives Risk Management

251Marcello Minenna

View

OTM Selling of thesecurities

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Settlement by cash

ITM

Page 252: Derivatives Risk Management

252Marcello Minenna

View

OTM Selling of thesecurities

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Settlement by cash

ITMSettlement of the differentialloss

Page 253: Derivatives Risk Management

253Marcello Minenna

Summary

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

View Expiry date Settlement Fin.InstitutionITM ITM Cash Settlement Profit

" " physical delivery NeutralITM OTM Cash Settlement Loss

" " physical delivery LossOTM ITM Cash Settlement Loss

" " physical delivery LossOTM OTM Cash Settlement Neutral

" " physical delivery Neutral

ITM view is better

Page 254: Derivatives Risk Management

254Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Cases of micromanipulation

Financial institutions can be

tempted to cause the view to

come true

Page 255: Derivatives Risk Management

Knock-IN

255Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

DEF. : it is an Option such that when a barrier

is crossed you have a plain vanilla one

Page 256: Derivatives Risk Management

Cases of micromanipolation

256Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

crossing of the barrier

Page 257: Derivatives Risk Management

Cases of micromanipolation

257Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

crossing of the barrier

deep itm option

perditaLoss

Page 258: Derivatives Risk Management

Knock-IN

258Marcello Minenna

OTMATM

ITM

settlement:•Cash•Physical delivery

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Page 259: Derivatives Risk Management

Knock-IN

259Marcello Minenna

OTMATM

ITM

cross-referenceSee what have been said about

plain vanilla options

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

… as a consequence of what have been

said before, we will omit the

Page 260: Derivatives Risk Management

Knock-IN

260Marcello Minenna

OTMATM

ITM

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

… let us focus on

Page 261: Derivatives Risk Management

Knock-IN

261Marcello Minenna

OTM

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

… we distinguish

… close to the barrier

…NOT close to the barrier

Page 262: Derivatives Risk Management

Numeric greek letters

262Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Introduction:

risk management for a Knock-in option

Page 263: Derivatives Risk Management

Numeric greek letters

263Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Mistakes in case of closeness

to the barrier

Page 264: Derivatives Risk Management

Marcello Minenna 264

Hedging of a financial institution

Let us recall what a numeric

greek letter is

… let us omit the others because they are not very important

Page 265: Derivatives Risk Management

265Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Why does it lead to a mistake?

Because it compares

Disomogeneous quantities

Page 266: Derivatives Risk Management

266Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Example:

Close (1%) to the barrierthe formula becomes:

1 01%

1% 0

1% 1%12

plain vanilla Knock inP PS S

Page 267: Derivatives Risk Management

267Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case StudiesK H32,76 21,90

price put numeric22,600 8,410 -326%22,550 8,574 -328%22,500 8,738 -330%22,450 8,904 -332%22,400 9,071 -334%22,350 9,238 -335%22,300 9,407 -337%22,250 9,576 -338%22,200 9,745 -340%22,150 9,916 -341%22,100 10,086 -329%22,050 10,258 -303%22,000 10,429 -276%21,950 10,601 -248%21,900 10,771 -221%21,850 10,821 -193%21,800 10,870 -165%21,750 10,920 -137%21,700 10,970 -109%21,650 11,020 -100%21,600 11,070 -100%21,550 11,120 -100%21,500 11,170 -100%21,450 11,220 -100%

Page 268: Derivatives Risk Management

268Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

It is a mistake

Why?

Because it compares different contingent claims

Page 269: Derivatives Risk Management

269Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Canbe

Risk Management based on greek letters referred to

the Barrier options

misleading

Page 270: Derivatives Risk Management

270Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

… furthermore, it can be very expansive

because it can require both continuous and relevant portfolio rebalances

Page 271: Derivatives Risk Management

271Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

K H32,76 21,90

price put numeric22,150 9,916 -341%21,950 10,601 -248%22,200 9,745 -340%21,910 10,739 -226%22,000 10,429 -276%22,050 10,258 -303%21,920 10,704 -232%

Example:

Page 272: Derivatives Risk Management

272Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case StudiesK H32,76 21,90

price put numeric22,600 8,410 -326%22,550 8,574 -328%22,500 8,738 -330%22,450 8,904 -332%22,400 9,071 -334%22,350 9,238 -335%22,300 9,407 -337%22,250 9,576 -338%22,200 9,745 -340%22,150 9,916 -341%22,100 10,086 -329%22,050 10,258 -303%22,000 10,429 -276%21,950 10,601 -248%21,900 10,771 -221%21,850 10,821 -193%21,800 10,870 -165%21,750 10,920 -137%21,700 10,970 -109%21,650 11,020 -100%21,600 11,070 -100%21,550 11,120 -100%21,500 11,170 -100%21,450 11,220 -100%

K H32,76 21,90

prezzo put numerico22,150 9,916 -341%21,950 10,601 -248%22,200 9,745 -340%21,910 10,739 -226%22,000 10,429 -276%22,050 10,258 -303%21,920 10,704 -232%

PortafoglioRe-balancing

Financial institutions do not employ traditional hedging,

but they use some devices, at least in case of closeness to the barrier

Page 273: Derivatives Risk Management

273Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Devices:

- Let us fix the maximum fluctuation of to –1

- Let us use in order to reduce the value of

Page 274: Derivatives Risk Management

274Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

… NOT close to the barrier

hedging works well

Page 275: Derivatives Risk Management

275Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

… NOT close to the barrier

hedging works well

Why?

Because it compares contingent claims that are equal

Page 276: Derivatives Risk Management

276Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Example:

The formula becomes:

1 01%

1% 0

1% 1%12

Knock in Knock inP PS S

Page 277: Derivatives Risk Management

277Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Market manipulation targetedto cross the barrier

Very expansive Warning in theRisk management

Page 278: Derivatives Risk Management

278Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

close to the barrier

Adjusted hedging works well

Page 279: Derivatives Risk Management

279Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Market manipulation targetedto cross the barrier

Not expansiveNO Warning in theRisk management

Page 280: Derivatives Risk Management

280Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

Market manipulation targetedto cross the barrier

Not expansiveNO Warning in theRisk management

The financial institution could be tempted to cross the barrier

Page 281: Derivatives Risk Management

281Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

… but it is not sure that the financial institution will adopt an adjusted

Greek Hedging system

Page 282: Derivatives Risk Management

282Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

… if following the traditional

Hedging, close to the barrier,

allows the risk management

to obtain “positive” effects

… but it is not sure that the financial institution will adopt an adjusted

Greek Hedging system

Page 283: Derivatives Risk Management

283Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

… because after having realized that

the activity close to the barrier

leads to an over-hedging, the financial

institution disinvests the part in excess

By selling securities

Page 284: Derivatives Risk Management

284Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

… because after having realized that

the activity close to the barrier

leads to an over-hedging, the financial

institution disinvests the part in excess

By selling securities

… and this selling activity can cause a

fall in price and a barrier crossing

Page 285: Derivatives Risk Management

285Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case StudiesK H32,76 21,90

price put numeric22,600 8,410 -326%22,550 8,574 -328%22,500 8,738 -330%22,450 8,904 -332%22,400 9,071 -334%22,350 9,238 -335%22,300 9,407 -337%22,250 9,576 -338%22,200 9,745 -340%22,150 9,916 -341%22,100 10,086 -329%22,050 10,258 -303%22,000 10,429 -276%21,950 10,601 -248%21,900 10,771 -221%21,850 10,821 -193%21,800 10,870 -165%21,750 10,920 -137%21,700 10,970 -109%21,650 11,020 -100%21,600 11,070 -100%21,550 11,120 -100%21,500 11,170 -100%21,450 11,220 -100%

The financial institution restores the hedging at its maximum value (-1) and sells the securities in excess

K H32,76 21,90

prezzo put numerico22,150 9,916 -341%21,950 10,601 -248%22,200 9,745 -340%21,910 10,739 -226%22,000 10,429 -276%22,050 10,258 -303%21,920 10,704 -232%

PortafoglioRe-balancing

Page 286: Derivatives Risk Management

286Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case StudiesK H32,76 21,90

price put numeric22,600 8,410 -326%22,550 8,574 -328%22,500 8,738 -330%22,450 8,904 -332%22,400 9,071 -334%22,350 9,238 -335%22,300 9,407 -337%22,250 9,576 -338%22,200 9,745 -340%22,150 9,916 -341%22,100 10,086 -329%22,050 10,258 -303%22,000 10,429 -276%21,950 10,601 -248%21,900 10,771 -221%21,850 10,821 -193%21,800 10,870 -165%21,750 10,920 -137%21,700 10,970 -109%21,650 11,020 -100%21,600 11,070 -100%21,550 11,120 -100%21,500 11,170 -100%21,450 11,220 -100%

The financial institution restores the hedging at its maximum value (-1) and sells the securities in excess

… being close to the barrier thefinancial institution can reach the target

to cross it

K H32,76 21,90

prezzo put numerico22,150 9,916 -341%21,950 10,601 -248%22,200 9,745 -340%21,910 10,739 -226%22,000 10,429 -276%22,050 10,258 -303%21,920 10,704 -232%

PortafoglioRe-balancing

Page 287: Derivatives Risk Management

287Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

… and what has been said before, Happens in anapparent situation of correctiveness

… for the Knock-in options …

Page 288: Derivatives Risk Management

288Marcello Minenna

Rev.conv. : Case Studies

… for the Knock-in options …

NOT correctRisk Management

=

NOT correctfinancial institution

Page 289: Derivatives Risk Management

Marcello Minenna 289

Hedging of a financial institution

Risk Management

of a financial

institution

Risk Management

of a financial

institution

CoveredWarrant

Reverse Convertible

Page 290: Derivatives Risk Management

Covered Warrant

Plain-vanilla options

Covered Warrant

Marcello Minenna 290

Page 291: Derivatives Risk Management

Divisione Relazioni Esterne

291

Covered Warrant

After buying …

Page 292: Derivatives Risk Management

Divisione Relazioni Esterne

292

Covered Warrant

After buying ...

What to do?

Let us negotiate

Page 293: Derivatives Risk Management

Divisione Relazioni Esterne

293

Covered Warrant

After buying ...

What to do?

Let us wait forthe maturity

Page 294: Derivatives Risk Management

Divisione Relazioni Esterne

294

Covered Warrant – What to do after?

0.100.12

0.140.16

0.10 0.12 0.14 0.160.08

0.08

Risk

Re

tu

rn

It Depends from individual risk – Return preferences

Page 295: Derivatives Risk Management

Divisione Relazioni Esterne

295

Covered Warrant – What to do after?

0.100.12

0.140.16

0.10 0.12 0.14 0.160.08

0.08

Risk

Re

tu

rn

It depends from individual risk – Return preferences

It is not enough. It is

necessary to study

the option

moneyness

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Divisione Relazioni Esterne

296

CW In-the-Money CW At-the-Money CW Out-the-Money

Covered Warrant – What to do after?

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Divisione Relazioni Esterne

297

CW Out-the-Money

Problems of the Minimum Tick with

regard to the trading

instruments

CW Out-the-Money – What to do after?

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298

Value of the underlying security

Pr

ice

S

CW Call

Time to maturity 180 days

KMarcello Minenna

CW Out-the-Money – What to do after?

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299

Value of the underlying security

Pr

ice

S

CW Call

Time to Maturity 90 days

KMarcello Minenna

CW Out-the-Money – What to do after?

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300

Value of the underlying security

Pr

ice

S

CW Call

Time to Maturity 20 days

KMarcello Minenna

CW Out-the-Money – What to do after?

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301

Value of the underlying security

K

Pr

ice

S

CW Call

Time to Maturity 0 days

Marcello Minenna

CW Out-the-Money – What to do after?

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302

Value of the underlying security

Pr

ice

S

CW Call

Time Decay

KMarcello Minenna

CW Out-the-Money – What to do after?

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303

Value of the underlying security

Pr

ice

S

CW Call

K

trading instruments Minimum Tick level

Marcello Minenna

CW Out-the-Money – What to do after?

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304

Pr

ice

SK

Value of the undelying security

Purchase of an OTM Call CW

Marcello Minenna

CW Out-the-Money – What to do after?

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305

Pr

ice

SK

Value of the underlying

security

Marcello Minenna

CW Out-the-Money – What to do after?

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306

Pr

ice

SKMarcello Minenna

CW Out-the-Money – What to do after?

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307

Pr

ice

S

Purchase of an OTM CallCW

K

Value of the underlying

security

Marcello Minenna

CW Out-the-Money – What to do after?

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308

Pr

ice

S

Purchase of an OTM Call CW

K

Value of the underlying

security

Marcello Minenna

CW Out-the-Money – What to do after?

Page 309: Derivatives Risk Management

309

+Problems

regarding the trading

instruments

OTM Covered Warrant hardly recover the investment value

Marcello Minenna

CW Out-the-Money – What to do after?

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310

Problems regarding the Risk Management

of the financial institution

Marcello Minenna

CW In-the-Money – What to do after?

CW In-the-Money

Page 311: Derivatives Risk Management

311

Problems regarding the Risk Management

of the financial institution

Marcello Minenna

CW In-the-Money

Example

CW In-the-Money – What to do after?

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312

Issuer-

MarketMaker

Investors

financial institution is a net seller of Calls

Marcello Minenna

CW In-the-Money – What to do after?

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313

Issuer-

MarketMaker

Close to maturity ...

He will hold in his portfolio

a large amount of the

stocks underlying the Call

Marcello Minenna

CW In-the-Money – What to do after?

Page 314: Derivatives Risk Management

314

Issuer-

MarketMaker

At maturity the option is ITM……

He will hold in his

Portfolio All the stocks

Underlying the Calls

Marcello Minenna

CW In-the-Money – What to do after?

Page 315: Derivatives Risk Management

315

Issuer-

MarketMaker

In order to settle the option’s pay-off …

He will sell all the stocks.

so called ‘risk unwinding’

Marcello Minenna

CW In-the-Money – What to do after?

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316

Issuer-

MarketMaker

Selling all the stocks ...

He will drive a fall in prices

Marcello Minenna

CW In-the-Money – What to do after?

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317

Issuer-

MarketMaker

driving a fall in prices …

He will reduce the

investor’s potential gain

Marcello Minenna

CW In-the-Money – What to do after?

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318

All the story can be summarized through…

Marcello Minenna

CW In-the-Money – What to do after?

Page 319: Derivatives Risk Management

319

Emittente-

MarketMaker

Emittente-

MarketMaker

Emittente-

MarketMaker

Delta Hedging analysis

Marcello Minenna

CW In-the-Money – What to do after?

All the story can be summarized through…

Page 320: Derivatives Risk Management

320

Issuer-

MarketMaker

Issuer-

MarketMaker

Issuer-

MarketMaker

The Point of View

Delta Hedging on a Short Call Position

Marcello Minenna

Page 321: Derivatives Risk Management

321

Price

Time

Quantity

Maturity

Delta Hedging on a Short Call Position

TotalHedging

Marcello Minenna

Page 322: Derivatives Risk Management

322

The Point of View

Delta Hedging on a Short Call Position

Marcello Minenna

Page 323: Derivatives Risk Management

323

Delta Hedging on a Short Call Position

Pa

y-o

ff

SK

Profit before Maturity

(Before Unwinding)

Marcello Minenna

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324

Delta Hedging on a Short Call Position

Pa

y-o

ff

SK

Profit at Maturity

(After Unwinding)

Marcello Minenna

Page 325: Derivatives Risk Management

325

Delta Hedging on a Short Call Position

Pa

y-o

ff

SK

Profit loss

Marcello Minenna

Page 326: Derivatives Risk Management

326

CW At-the-Money

Problems connected to the so called ‘view’

Marcello Minenna

CW At-the-Money – What to do after?

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327

The stock is close

both to maturity and strike

Marcello Minenna

Financial institutions will have

to choose if it is the case to

complete or not the hedging

(so called view)

CW At-the-Money – What to do after?

Page 328: Derivatives Risk Management

Marcello Minenna 328

Short 1000 call on 1 stock Portfolio

Option Q.

Time Step

Time to Expiration

STOCK PRICE Value Opz. call call

Posit.Stock

Posit.Total position

0 0,2500 100,0 10,3776 (1.000) 0,56411596 (564) 564 564 1 564 - 1 0,2375 103,0 11,8661 (1.000) 0,609628 (610) 46 610 1 610 - 2 0,2250 103,7 12,0368 (1.000) 0,6207246 (621) 11 621 1 621 - 3 0,2125 101,7 10,5181 (1.000) 0,58779993 (588) (33) 588 1 588 - 4 0,2000 96,5 7,4017 (1.000) 0,49399277 (494) (94) 494 1 494 - 5 0,1875 95,6 6,6706 (1.000) 0,47264412 (473) (21) 473 1 473 - 6 0,1750 98,0 7,5759 (1.000) 0,51590073 (516) 43 516 1 516 - 7 0,1625 103,7 10,4769 (1.000) 0,62159169 (622) 106 622 1 622 - 8 0,1500 104,0 10,3404 (1.000) 0,62848623 (628) 6 628 1 628 - 9 0,1375 102,0 8,7708 (1.000) 0,58982183 (590) (38) 590 1 590 -

10 0,1250 99,0 6,7342 (1.000) 0,5231959 (523) (67) 523 1 523 - 11 0,1125 98,0 5,8476 (1.000) 0,49554047 (496) (27) 496 1 496 - 12 0,1000 101,0 7,0373 (1.000) 0,56586158 (566) 70 566 1 566 - 13 0,0875 103,0 7,7894 (1.000) 0,61640622 (616) 50 616 1 616 - 14 0,0750 100,5 5,8907 (1.000) 0,55119095 (551) (65) 551 1 551 - 15 0,0625 98,0 4,0990 (1.000) 0,46817516 (468) (83) 468 1 468 - 16 0,0500 104,0 6,9440 (1.000) 0,66410039 (664) 196 664 1 664 - 17 0,0375 99,0 3,4276 (1.000) 0,48390678 (484) (180) 484 1 484 - 18 0,0250 104,0 5,6701 (1.000) 0,70807478 (708) 224 708 1 708 - 19 0,0125 102,0 3,4230 (1.000) 0,65206982 (652) (56) 652 1 652 - 20 0,0000 98,0 - (1.000) 0 - (652) - 1 - -

Option and Stock and

Stock to Buy/(Sell)

Warehouse

Stock

Problems connected to the so called ‘view’

Page 329: Derivatives Risk Management

Marcello Minenna 329

Short 1000 call on 1 stock Portfolio

Option Q.

Time Step

Time to Expiration

STOCK PRICE Value Opz. call call

Posit.Stock

Posit.Total position

0 0,2500 100,0 10,3776 (1.000) 0,56411596 (564) 564 564 1 564 - 1 0,2375 103,0 11,8661 (1.000) 0,609628 (610) 46 610 1 610 - 2 0,2250 103,7 12,0368 (1.000) 0,6207246 (621) 11 621 1 621 - 3 0,2125 101,7 10,5181 (1.000) 0,58779993 (588) (33) 588 1 588 - 4 0,2000 96,5 7,4017 (1.000) 0,49399277 (494) (94) 494 1 494 - 5 0,1875 95,6 6,6706 (1.000) 0,47264412 (473) (21) 473 1 473 - 6 0,1750 98,0 7,5759 (1.000) 0,51590073 (516) 43 516 1 516 - 7 0,1625 103,7 10,4769 (1.000) 0,62159169 (622) 106 622 1 622 - 8 0,1500 104,0 10,3404 (1.000) 0,62848623 (628) 6 628 1 628 - 9 0,1375 102,0 8,7708 (1.000) 0,58982183 (590) (38) 590 1 590 -

10 0,1250 99,0 6,7342 (1.000) 0,5231959 (523) (67) 523 1 523 - 11 0,1125 98,0 5,8476 (1.000) 0,49554047 (496) (27) 496 1 496 - 12 0,1000 101,0 7,0373 (1.000) 0,56586158 (566) 70 566 1 566 - 13 0,0875 103,0 7,7894 (1.000) 0,61640622 (616) 50 616 1 616 - 14 0,0750 100,5 5,8907 (1.000) 0,55119095 (551) (65) 551 1 551 - 15 0,0625 98,0 4,0990 (1.000) 0,46817516 (468) (83) 468 1 468 - 16 0,0500 104,0 6,9440 (1.000) 0,66410039 (664) 196 664 1 664 - 17 0,0375 99,0 3,4276 (1.000) 0,48390678 (484) (180) 484 1 484 - 18 0,0250 104,0 5,6701 (1.000) 0,70807478 (708) 224 708 1 708 - 19 0,0125 102,0 3,4230 (1.000) 0,65206982 (652) (56) 652 1 652 - 20 0,0000 98,0 - (1.000) 0 - (652) - 1 - -

Option and Stock and

Stock to Buy/(Sell)

Warehouse

Stock

Problems connected to the so called ‘view’

Page 330: Derivatives Risk Management

Marcello Minenna 330

Short 1000 call on 1 stock Portfolio

Option Q.

Time Step

Time to Expiration

STOCK PRICE Value Opz. call call

Posit.Stock

Posit.Total position

0 0,2500 100,0 10,3776 (1.000) 0,56411596 (564) 564 564 1 564 - 1 0,2375 103,0 11,8661 (1.000) 0,609628 (610) 46 610 1 610 - 2 0,2250 103,7 12,0368 (1.000) 0,6207246 (621) 11 621 1 621 - 3 0,2125 101,7 10,5181 (1.000) 0,58779993 (588) (33) 588 1 588 - 4 0,2000 96,5 7,4017 (1.000) 0,49399277 (494) (94) 494 1 494 - 5 0,1875 95,6 6,6706 (1.000) 0,47264412 (473) (21) 473 1 473 - 6 0,1750 98,0 7,5759 (1.000) 0,51590073 (516) 43 516 1 516 - 7 0,1625 103,7 10,4769 (1.000) 0,62159169 (622) 106 622 1 622 - 8 0,1500 104,0 10,3404 (1.000) 0,62848623 (628) 6 628 1 628 - 9 0,1375 102,0 8,7708 (1.000) 0,58982183 (590) (38) 590 1 590 -

10 0,1250 99,0 6,7342 (1.000) 0,5231959 (523) (67) 523 1 523 - 11 0,1125 98,0 5,8476 (1.000) 0,49554047 (496) (27) 496 1 496 - 12 0,1000 101,0 7,0373 (1.000) 0,56586158 (566) 70 566 1 566 - 13 0,0875 103,0 7,7894 (1.000) 0,61640622 (616) 50 616 1 616 - 14 0,0750 100,5 5,8907 (1.000) 0,55119095 (551) (65) 551 1 551 - 15 0,0625 98,0 4,0990 (1.000) 0,46817516 (468) (83) 468 1 468 - 16 0,0500 104,0 6,9440 (1.000) 0,66410039 (664) 196 664 1 664 - 17 0,0375 99,0 3,4276 (1.000) 0,48390678 (484) (180) 484 1 484 - 18 0,0250 104,0 5,6701 (1.000) 0,70807478 (708) 224 708 1 708 - 19 0,0125 102,0 3,4230 (1.000) 0,65206982 (652) (56) 652 1 652 - 20 0,0000 101,0 1,0000 (1.000) 1 (1.000) 348 1.000 1 1.000 -

Option and Stock and

Stock to Buy/(Sell)

Warehouse

Stock

Problems connected to the so called ‘view’

Page 331: Derivatives Risk Management

331

A view’s mistake can cause a high

cost to the financial institution

Marcello Minenna

Cases of micromanipulation

in order to make the view ‘come true’

CW At-the-Money – What to do after?

Page 332: Derivatives Risk Management

332Marcello Minenna

Cases of micromanipulation in order to

make the view ‘come true’

loss

CW At-the-Money – What to do after?

Page 333: Derivatives Risk Management

333Marcello Minenna

Final Remarks

Risk management of a financial institution

Page 334: Derivatives Risk Management

334Marcello Minenna

examines

Cases of micromanipulation

The quant enforcement

Risk management of a financial institution

Page 335: Derivatives Risk Management

335Marcello Minenna

analysis

Activity of the financial

institution …

The quant enforcement

Risk management of a financial institution

Page 336: Derivatives Risk Management

336Marcello Minenna

verify

… the financial institution’s placing

with reference to the bounds of

Risk management

The quant enforcement

Risk management of a financial institution

Page 337: Derivatives Risk Management

337Marcello Minenna

… because financial institutions

sometimes justify their activity as

connected to the indications of

risk management tools

Risk management of a financial institution