department of plant and soil sciences n, p and k for 2014: $300 rent, $4 corn and usepa john grove...

Department of Plant and Soil Sciences

N, P and K for 2014:$300 Rent, $4 Corn

and USEPA

John Grove and Edwin RitcheyPlant and Soil Sciences


• Supply– Nitrogen; adequate, plentiful natural gas,

more capacity being built (net export?)– Phosphate; adequate, industry

consolidation (Mosaic, South America, supply control)

– Potash; always adequate, but Russian cartel broken (for now), Urakali versus Belaruskali (lost mines, CEO-house arrest), 75 start-ups “on hold”, including BHP’s $14 billion Jansen/Canada mine, Belaruskali just announced $300/ton fob

2014 Nutrient Management Context

Various industry sources; Wall Street J.


• Demand– Driven by nutrient removal– Driven by price?



Grain Crop Nutrient Removal

CropYield unit N P2O5 K2O

---lbs nutrient removed/yield unit---

Corn (grain) bushel 0.7 0.4 0.35

Corn (stalks) ton 14.0 7.0 29.0

Wheat (grain) bushel 1.2 0.5 0.3

Wheat (straw) ton 12.0 4.0 20.0

Soybean (grain) bushel 3.0 0.7 1.1

Murdock and Ritchey, 2013, AGR-1


• Demand– Driven by nutrient removal– Driven by price?

• Nutrient removal– A tale of two years



Nutrient Removal – Corn – 2012

• Initial STP = 50, STK = 250• AGR-1 recommends 30 lb P2O5 & 30 lb K20• 2012 Ky corn yield - 68 bu/A• Removal: 48, 27, and 24 lb N, P2O5, K2O/A• Soil test again or assume a 1 lb/A change

in soil test with each 5 lb addition-removal/A– End of 2012: estimated STP = 51, STK=251

• AGR-1 recommends 30 lb P2O5 & 30 lb K20 for 2013

Ritchey, 2013


Nutrient Removal – Corn – 2013

• Initial STP = 50, STK = 250• AGR-1 recommends 30 lb P2O5 & 30 lb K20• 2013 Ky corn yield - 173 bu/A• Removal: 121, 69, and 61 lb N, P2O5, K2O/A• Soil test again or assume a 1 lb/A change

in soil test with each 5 lb addition-removal/A– End of 2013: estimated STP = 42, STK=244

• AGR-1 recommends 40 lb P2O5 & 30 lb K20 for 2014

Ritchey, 2013


Nutrient Removal – Irrigated Corn

• Initial STP = 50, STK = 250• AGR-1 recommends 30 lb P2O5 & 30 lb

K20• Irrigated corn yield - 250 bu/A• Removal: 175, 100, and 88 lb N, P2O5,

K2O/A• Soil test again or assume a 1 lb/A

change in soil test with each 5 lb addition-removal/A– End of year: estimated STP = 36, STK=238

• AGR-1 recommends 60 lb P2O5 & 40 lb K20 for next year

Ritchey, 2013


Soil Sample to Verify!?

Year 1 = 1990Year 23 = 2012

Sikora, 2013


Union County Soil Test P With Time

y = -0.1293x + 328.55

R2 = 0.013

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014

Year

So

il T

est

P (

lb/A

)

9971 samples averaging 69 lb STP/A

Sikora, 2013


Union County Soil Test K With Time

y = -2.1307x + 4523.3

R2 = 0.3316

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014

Year

So

il T

est

K (

lb/A

)

9971 samples averaging 256 lb STK/A

Sikora, 2013


The lb P2O5/A required to

change soil test P by 1 lb/A – as related to the

initial soil test P level – after an

8 week lab incubation.

Thom and Dollarhide, 1987


• Price – should be influenced by supply, demand and fertilizer/crop price ratio



Nitrogen Material Prices, Every 4 Weeks

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Every 28 days (1=early Dec 2012; 13=early Nov 2013)

Pri

ce (

$/to

n)

Ammonia, 82-0-0

Urea, 46-0-0

UAN, 32-0-0

DTN, 2013


DTN, 2013

Dry Fertilizer Material Prices, Every 4 Weeks

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Every 28 days (1=early Dec 2012; 13=early Nov 2013)

Pri

ce (

$/to

n)

DAP, 18-46-0

Muriate Potash, 0-0-60

urea, 46-0-0

Buying has been off.Waiting for further priceDecline.


• Price – should be influenced by supply, demand and fertilizer/crop price ratio, but the industry knows you had high removal.

• Nitrogen– the N industry monitors corn prices and

pricing; seek to set price of N/lb at about 1/10 the price of corn/bu

– delivery timing and storage capacity can influence N pricing, especially anhydrous

• Near future: expect a bit more supply driven pricing, especially N and P (K ??)



Nutrient Budget Consequences 2012-13

Sharpen Your PencilCorn

for Grain unit 2012 2013 2014

Nutrient lb/A ------------$/lb------------

N 175 0.54 0.55 0.42

P2O5 69 0.66 0.62 0.50

K2O 71 0.57 0.53 0.41

Total ($/acre) 180 176 137

Budget YieldActual Yield

bu/Abu/A

19068

190173

190???

Purdue Coop. Extn. 2012-13


• Follow recommendations– For N: AGR-1 gives a range in

recommended rates for the situation. Move to the high end of the range when the fertilizer N/grain price ratio is favorable (low).

– For lime, P and K: soil test based approach is best

– For S and the micronutrients (Zn, B, Mn): know your likely need. Verify with soil test and plant tissue analysis.

2014 Nutrient Recommendations


Adjust Corn N Rate According To The Economic Season?

Murdock and Ritchey, 2013, AGR-1


• The “Right” Recommendation– Competing philosophies of recommendation:– SLAN, Maintenance, Soil Nutrient Balance

• UK: Sufficient Level of Available Nutrients (SLAN)– Crop response based/fertilize for the crop;– Buildup (at low test levels);– Maintenance (at medium-high test levels);– None (at high-very high test levels).

Recommendation Philosophies


Murdock, 1992, AGR-151

Wrong Recommendation = Real Loss

Real Money = Get a Second Opinion?

Future Nutrient Challenges?

A Hydrologic ‘Short-Circuit’?


USGS

A Different “Yield”

1 kg P/km2/yr = 0.009 lb P/acre/yr10 kg P/km2/yr = 0.09 lb P/acre/yr 100 kg P/km2/yr = 0.9 lb P/acre/yr

Is your soil testprogram ready?


0 1Soil Test P (lbs/acre)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Yie

ld (

% o

f m

axim

um

)

60305Soil Test P (lb/acre)

Low

MedHigh

V.low

Agronomic Threshold/Critical Value

Sikora, pers. comm.

This UK Knows - Well


40

Soil Test P (lbs/acre)

Environmental Threshold

???

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Yie

ld (

% o

f m

axim

um

)

Limited Risk

of P runoff

Risk

of P runoff

This UK Does Not Know Well

Sikora, pers. comm.


Predicting Water Soluble P from Mehlich III P on Twenty Kentucky Soils

M III - P < 55; wsp = 0.23ppmotherwise;

wsp = 0.0321(M III -P) - 1.5298

predicted = 1.0013 (observed) + 0.002R2 = 0.8575

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

0 30 60 90 120 150 180

Mehlich III - P (mg/kg soil)

wa

ter

solu

ble

P (

mg

/kg

so

il)

Actual

Predicted

D’Angelo, pers. comm.


Water Quality and PUE = Win-Win

• Greater phosphorus use efficiency (PUE) improves water quality

• Strategies: – P placement/banding below the soil surface

• Additives: ???• The future:

– Tie up/fix available fertilizer and manure P at the soil surface – gypsum and iron wastes

– Move available P, chemically, a bit deeper into the soil, perhaps just 1 inch below the surface


Water Quality and NUE:Guarding Against N Losses:

Volatilization of Ammonia (NH3)Leaching of Nitrate (NO3

-)Denitrification into N2 and N2OImmobilization into Organic N

John Sawyer, Iowa State University


IPNI, Fairchild


Fairchild, IPNI

Delayed/Split N Timing – reduce the probability of denitrification and leaching

Reducing N Immobilizationand NH3 volatilization: NPlacement Below The Surface



Maintaining Sufficient Nitrogen• Increasing the N rate – “insurance” N may

not be an option. Have you evaluated the alternatives? Don’t have to use steel & time.

• Reduce the probability of denitrification and leaching with a nitrification inhibitor– nitrapyrin/N-Serve/Instinct, DCD, Super U)

• Reduce volatilization with an inhibitor– NBPT/Agrotain, other NBPT formulations (jar test?)

• New inhibitors? Not in short-term. But further out there is more to look for.

N and P management options may change.

Can you reduce your N or P application rate by 5, 15 or 25%?

Sometimes an ‘on-farm’ test is needed.Your N (P) rateYour N (P) rate + product/practice XYour N (P) rate + extra N (P); $N(P) =cost of XYour N (P) rate – the N (P) it takes to pay for

X; total $= cost of your old N (P) rate alone

Peace of mind comes at a price.

Take-Home Messages


Questions?

Thank You!


Graves County Soil Test P With Time

y = 0.4483x - 797.19

R2 = 0.0151

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014

Year

So

il T

est

P (

lb/A

)


Sikora, 2013


Graves County Soil Test K With Time

y = -3.7294x + 7752

R2 = 0.4384

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014

Year

So

il T

est

K (

lb/A

)


Sikora, 2013


Christian County Soil Test P With Time

y = -0.173x + 416.19

R2 = 0.004

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014

Year

So

il T

est

P (

lb/A

)


Sikora, 2013


Christian County Soil Test K With Time

y = -4.4033x + 9106.7

R2 = 0.3257

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014

Year

So

il T

est

K (

lb/A

)

1488 samples averaging 315 lb STK/A

Sikora, 2013

Schwab & Murdock75 lb N/A, except control

Norman,Univ. ofArkansas

N GrainN Rate Yield

Source lb N/A bu/Acontrol 0 116dUAN 80 189cUAN + Instinct 80 204bcUAN 120 218bUAN + Instinct 120 241a

Corn Grain Yields - 2009

department of plant and soil sciences n, p and k for 2014: $300 rent, $4 corn and usepa john grove...

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