Demographic Transition

A Model of Population and Natural Increase Rate

Demographic Transition Model

• A Predictive and Descriptive Model• Widely accepted throughout the field

of geography. • All countries go through it, but at

different rates and at different times.

Stage 1

• High CBR• High CDR• Zero or very low NIR• Low population level• Most of human history, but no countries

today• Very low standard of living: little

education, no medical care, no industrialization, rural dwellers, subsistence economy

Stage 2

• High CBR• CDR begins to drop rapidly• NIR increases rapidly• Population gets larger (very quickly)• Due to industrial revolution in Europe (late

1700s)• Medical revolution in LDCs during the late

1900s• Pollution (increased industrialization), mass

production (cash economy), some medical care, some education, increasingly urban

Stage 3

• CDR continues to drop• CBR begins to drop• NIR drops rapidly• Population continues to grow, but less rapidly• Population is at its highest level• CBR drops because people decide to have

fewer children once IMR declines. • Smaller families, higher standards of living,

medical and education for most, urbanized society, highly industrialized

Stage 4

• CDR is equal to CBR, but both are at low levels• NIR is zero• Population stays constant at a high level – “Zero

Population Growth (ZPG)”• Urbanized societies with gender equality; high

end service industry drives economy • Overview• Basic Assumptions of Model • This process goes along with increased

industrialization, technology, and medical advances in a country.

Demographic Transition Model

• All countries will develop along the same patterns as western Europe throughout the 1800s and 1900s.

• Does not take into account immigration or emigration.

Critique

• Some countries did not go through early stages (United States, Australia)

• Doesn’t take into consideration disease and other wide-spread population reducers (war)

• Western Europe and the United States were able to go through the stages because of exploitation of human and natural resources from other places. Will the LDCs have access to the same resources?

• What about population shrinkage? Is there a stage 5?