DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT: THE CHALLENGES OF GLOBALIZATION

(The Seventh Valenteevskiye Chteniya) 15-17 November 2012

Lomonosov Moscow State University

The ethnic transformation of European societies by immigration

David Coleman, University of Oxforddavid.coleman@spi.ox.ac.uk

http://www.spi.ox.ac.uk/oxpop

Immigration and the rise of ethnic minority populations in Europe.

Historically, Europe a region of emigration.Large-scale immigration in peacetime mostly from 1960s:

Guest-workers to some countriesEasy entry from former colonies – for a time.Subsequent entry of dependants and new spousesChain migration from non-European countries helped by ‘familist’ culture, large family size, revolutions in information, transport, rights.EU expansionRenewed recent interest in skilled migration

Policy important but erratic; many now restrictive

Some facilitating factors for migration

Unequal pace of economic development and demographic transition in ‘North’ and ‘South’.

Geographical proximity.Political / historical connections.Post-war ‘revolutions’ in transport, information and

rights.State policy in sending and receiving countries.Voting power of immigrant minoritiesInternational conventions.The ‘migration industry’ and trafficking.Factors reducing migration pressure.

Turkey and Western Europe

Population trends and projections, selected European countries and Turkey 1950-2050 (millions). Source: United Nations 2004-based estimates.

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

France

Germany

Italy

United Kingdom

Turkey

Migration flows to European Union and USA, 1960 – 2011 (thousands)

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

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1990

1992

1994

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1998

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2006

2008

2010

Net immigation to EU-15, EU27 countries, gross inflow to the USA, 1960 - 2011 and net inflow to USA 2001-2011 (thousands). Sources: Eurostat, US Dept of Homeland Security.

Net immigration to EU-15 countries

Persons accepted for permanent residence, USA (gross inflow)

Net immigration to EU27 countries

Gross migration flow to France 2005, by reason for admission (%).

France 2005. Immigration (gross inflow) according to reason for admission (percent).

PercentStudent Worker Family Other All by area

EEA 3 37 10 50 100 21Non-Europe 26 5 50 19 100 79

All 21 11 42 25 100 100Source: INED

Note: 'Other' includes inactive, retired, refugee. Percent by purpose excludes minors (about 8% of total).Switzerland and Turkey omitted. 12% of total; mostly Turkey, 39% for family reasons.

Long-term migration trends to the United Kingdom 1967 – 2011, UK and non-UK citizens.

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

UK net migration by citizenship 1967 - 2011 (thousands). Note: there are discontinuities in this series from 1991. Source: ONS International Migration Statistics Series

MN, ONS Statistical Bulletin, Migration Statistics 2019.

Foreign citizens

Foreign citizens (post 1991)

UK citizens

UK Citizens (post 1991)

Net migration to selected European countries 1997 – 2011

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Net migration, selected European countries 1997 - 2011, thousands. Source: Eurostat

Denmark

Germany

France

Netherlands

Sweden

United Kingdom

Switzerland

Net migration to Italy and Spain 1997 – 2011. Note: increase primarily due to illegal immigration and regularisation of illegal

residence through amnesties.

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

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800

1997

1998

1999

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2011

Net migration, Spain and Italy, 1997 - 2011 (thousands). Source: Eurostat.

Spain

Italy

Migration can go down as well as up. Germany 1954 – 2007.

Migration to Germany 1954 - 2007, by citizenship. Source: Statistisches Bundesamt, Wiesbaden. Up to 1990 German Federal Republic only.

- 300 000

- 200 000

- 100 000

-

+ 100 000

+ 200 000

+ 300 000

+ 400 000

+ 500 000

+ 600 000

+ 700 000

+ 800 000

1954

2)

1956

2)

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

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1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Net migrationGermans including aussiedlerForeignersGermans without aussiedler net flow

Ethnic change

Continued migration from one population, into another with sub-replacement fertility, must eventually replace one with the other.

If incoming populations have higher fertility, the process will be accelerated.

Migration, not differential fertility, is usually the dominant factor in ethnic transition.

Estimates of foreign origin and immigrant

population, selected European countries. Sources: national statistical offices

Numbers of foreign citizens, and immigrants, enumerated in selected European countries, around 2009

Foreign‘Foreign ‘Foreign ImmigrantsImmigrants citizens as

Population Origin’ Origin’ as percent ofpercent ofMillions (millions) (percent) (millions) total pop. immigrants

Austria 2011 8.4 n.a. n.a 1.00 11.9 92.4Belgium 2007 10.6 n.a n.a 1.38 13.0 70.4Denmark 2011 5.6 0.57 10.2 0.43 7.7 80.7Finland 2010 5.4 n.a n.a 0.25 4.6 67.7France 2008 64.0 n.a n.a 5.34 8.4 69.5Germany 2009 81.9 16.04 19.6 10.60 12.9 67.3N'lands 2011 16.7 3.43 20.6 1.78 10.7 42.7Portugal 2007 10.6 n.a n.a 0.65 6.1 68.9Spain 2007 44.9 n.a n.a 6.00 13.4 72.4Sweden 2009 8.0 1.73 21.7 1.34 16.7 45.1UK 2010 61.4 10.24 16.7 7.14 11.6 62.5

Selected European populations, percent of residents born abroad, 2010. Source: Eurostat

16.315.315.2

14.314.013.9

12.712.4

12.011.3

11.111.111.111.0

10.89.0

8.07.5

6.54.44.3

3.81.2

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

EstoniaLatvia

AustriaSweden

SpainBelgium

IrelandSlovenia

GermanyUnited Kingdom

FranceGreece

NetherlandsIcelandNorway

DenmarkItaly

PortugalLithuaniaHungary

FinlandCzech Republic

Poland

Series1

Relative size of live births and natural increase in 2010, selected countries

Selected Western countries Comparisons of live births, net immigration and natural increase 2010

Net migration

Population Live Natural Net as percent

1st Jan 2010 births increase migration of births

data in thousands

Switzerland 7786 80 13 61 75Belgium 10840 127 23 89 70Norway 4858 61 17 42 69Italy 60340 562 -7 312 55Austria 8375 79 2 27 35Denmark 5535 63 9 17 27UK 62027 807 246 163 20Germany 81802 678 -181 130 19Spain 45989 485 107 60 12France mét 62791 802 262 75 9Greece 11305 115 6 -1 -1Total of above 361648 3860 495 975 25

Australia 22696 293 149 176 60Canada 34108 381 127 216 57New Zealand 4370 64 35 10 16United States 298363 4217 1840 844 20

Special features of migration to the former Soviet Union

Russian Empire / Soviet Union / Russian Federation facilitated internal migration and creation of minority populations.

International migration minimal from 1920s

‘Return’ migration of Russian nationals from 1992

Recent large-scale migration of non-Russians from ‘near abroad’ and China, regular and irregular.

Foreign citizen population now 8.7%

TFR trends of UK ethnic minority populations 1965 – 2006data from Labour Force Survey by own-child method, 7-year moving averages

TFR ethnic minorities, UK 1965 - 2006 from LFS by own-child method; seven-year moving averages

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

White

Black-Caribbean

Black-African

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Chinese

Convergence in fertility: total fertility of Pakistani

women in the UK by birthplace. Source: Coleman and Dubuc 2010.

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

1970-74 1975-79 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99

period

TFR

and

95%

con

fide

nce

inte

rval

Pakistani-born women in UK

All UK Pakistani women

UK-born Pakistani women

Indian population, England and Wales Census 2001 (percent)

5.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 5.00

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90 +

percent of population

females males

Pakistani population, England and Wales Census 2001 (percent)

7.00 5.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 5.00 7.00

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90 +

percent of population

males females

Ethnic change in the USA, projected 1999 - 2100 (thousands)

US population 1999 - 2100 Middle Series, ethnic group. Source; US Bureau of the Census 2000.

0.000

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

2023

2026

2029

2032

2035

2038

2041

2044

2047

2050

2053

2056

2059

2062

2065

2068

2071

2074

2077

2080

2083

2086

2089

2092

2095

2098

Hispanic White non-Hispanic Black NH American Indian NH Asian and Pacific NH

A projection of ethnic transformation in the UK 2006 – 2056. TFR = 1.84, net immigration = 180,000 / year. Source: Coleman 2010.

Sweden 1980 – 2020. Foreign-born and ‘foreign

origin’ population, as percent of total population.

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Foreign -born and foreign origin population in Sweden, 1980 - 2020, percent of total population. Source: Statistics Sweden 2003

Foreign birthplace

Foreign background

Comparison of results of ‘foreign-origin’ or ‘ethnic minority’ projections in Western countries

Projected growth of population of immigrant origin 2000-2050, selected countries, percent of total population. Red/brown - English speaking world. Green - European.

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

perc

ent

United States 2008-basedUK 2006-based projection with ethnic shiftCanada 2001-basedNew Zealand 2005-based UK 2006-based non-white onlyNetherlands 2009-basedNorway 2009-basedGermany medium variantAustria low immigration no naturalisationDenmark 2009-based

UK population projection 2051 by age, sex and origin Assumptions for total population as GAD Principal Projection 2006 (net migration 190K;

TFR 1.84)

UK population 2051 projection by age and origin (1000s).Assumptions for total population: migration, TFR as in GAD Principal Projection 2008.

3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99

100+

Males British origin Males foreign originFemales British origin Females foreign origin

Other transformations: ethnic groups of mixed origin, England and Wales 2001(thousands).

Source: 2001 Census.

All born in born born in born % of % of

birth- UK overseas UK overseas total non-white

places (1000s) (1000s) (1000s) (1000s) pop. pop.

All Mixed groups 661.0 524.3 136.7 79.3 20.7 1.3 14.6W/ Black Caribbean 237.4 222.9 14.5 93.9 6.1 0.5 5.3W/ Black African 78.9 52.9 26.0 67.1 32.9 0.2 1.7W/Asian 189.0 144.5 44.6 76.4 23.6 0.4 4.2Other mixed 155.7 104.0 51.7 66.8 33.2 0.3 3.4

The faces of the future?

Current unions outside own group, Great Britain 1991-96, 1997-02 (percent).

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Black-Caribbean

Black-African Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Chinese

perc

ent

Women 1991-1996 Women 1997-2002 Men 1991-1996 Men 1997-2002

An end to ‘ethnic’ categories? The rise of mixed populations.Probabilistic projections of the UK 2001- 2100, average outcome for major groups

(percent).

UK Version 2 probabilistic projection: mean of percent of each major ethnic group in the total population, 2001 - 2100.

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10

20

30

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70

80

90

100

2001

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

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2035

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2045

2050

2055

2060

2065

2070

2075

2080

2085

2090

2095

2100

White

Black

Asian

Mixed

Projected growth of ethnically mixed population in the absence of migration, UK 2006 – 2056.

Concluding points on ethnic change

Migration from developing world may be over within a century (?); but effects on ancestry permanent.

Migration the key driver; in theory under policy control.An inevitable consequence of globalisation?Significance for social and political change: religion, identity,

segregation, language, law, foreign policy? (depends on numbers, pace, origins, policy).

Integration / assimilation, or ‘community of communities’? And who adapts to whom?

Inter-ethnic union may change relative group size, eventually create a completely new mixed population.