demographi profile & enrollment proje tions...demographic and socio economic information about...
TRANSCRIPT
2018 - 2019
DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE &
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
Prepared by the Business Services Department of the Park Hill School District &
Business Information Services, LLC
Spring, 2019
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2018-2019 Demographic Profile of the
Park Hill School District
March 2019
Park Hill Board of Education
President, Bart Klein
Vice President, Susan Newburger
Treasurer, Kimberlee Ried
Member, Janice Bolin
Member, Todd Fane
Member, Scott Monsees
Member, Kyla Yamada
Superintendent of Schools, Dr. Jeanette Cowherd
Secretary to the Board, Opal Hibbs
Prepared by the Business Services Department of the Park Hill School District &
Business Information Services, LLC
This document is available for download at http://www.parkhill.k12.mo.us/
District Information - Data and Reports - Demographic Profile
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................... 5 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................................... 7
About The 2018-2019 Demographic Profile ........................................................................................................ 7
About The Park Hill School District ..................................................................................................................... 8
District Geography ............................................................................................................................................. 8
District Municipalities ...................................................................................................................................... 10
District Maps .................................................................................................................................................... 11 Map Of Area School Districts ............................................................................................................................... 12 Map Of Park Hill School District Municpalities .................................................................................................... 13 Aerial Overview Map Of Park Hill School District ................................................................................................ 14 Zip Codes Within Park Hill School District Boundaries ........................................................................................ 15 Map Of 2018-2019 Park Hill School District Boundaries ..................................................................................... 16 Missouri School Districts by county boundaries .................................................................................................. 17
2017-2018 STATISTICS OF MISSOURI PUBLIC SCHOOLS .................................................................................... 18
Demographic Comparisons – State of Missouri Public Schools ......................................................................... 20 Twenty-Five Largest School Districts in Missouri (Enrollment) ........................................................................... 20 Largest School Districts in Missouri (Geographic) ............................................................................................... 21
Demographic Comparisons – Benchmark School Districts ................................................................................ 21 Benchmark Population Data ................................................................................................................................ 21 Benchmark Enrollment Data................................................................................................................................ 22 Benchmark Demographic Data ............................................................................................................................ 23 Benchmark School Finance Data ......................................................................................................................... 24
STUDENT ENROLLMENT ....................................................................................................................................... 25
Historical Enrollment Data ............................................................................................................................... 25 Student Enrollment Table By Grade – 25-Year Historical (1995-2019) ............................................................... 26 K-12 Student Enrollment Chart– 25-Year Historical (1995-2019) ........................................................................ 27 Annual Growth In K-12 Student Enrollment – 25-Year Historical (1995-2019) ................................................... 28
Current Enrollment .......................................................................................................................................... 29 Park Hill School DistrictDistrict Enrollment (2018-2019) ..................................................................................... 31 Park Hill School District Change In District Enrollment From Prior Year (2017-2018 to 2018-2019) .................. 32 Park Hill School District School Enrollment Distribution (2018-2019) ................................................................. 33 Park Hill School District Grade Level Distribution (2018-2019) ........................................................................... 34 Park Hill School District Class Size Analysis .......................................................................................................... 35 Park Hill School District Student Geographic Distribution ................................................................................... 36 Park Hill School District Student Enrollment Density .......................................................................................... 37
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Park Hill School District Grade Level Distribution and Cohort Growth Since Kindergarten - 2018-2019 Enrollment ........................................................................................................................................................... 38 Park Hill School District Class of 2019 Cohort Growth – Kindergarten Through 12th Grade ............................... 39 Park Hill School District Diversity Of Enrollment (2018-2019) ............................................................................. 40 Park Hill School District Change in Diverse Populations (2009-2018) ................................................................. 41 Park Hill School District Diverse Populations By School (2018-2019) .................................................................. 42 Park Hill School District Growth In Free and Reduced Lunch Population* (2018-2019) ..................................... 43 Park Hill School District Free and Reduced Lunch Population By School* (2018-2019) ...................................... 44 Park Hill School District Mobility Data ................................................................................................................. 45
SUPPORTING DEMOGRAPHIC DATA ..................................................................................................................... 49
Platte County Live Birthrates And Kindergarten Enrollments ........................................................................... 49 Collecting Birthrate Data ..................................................................................................................................... 49 Birthrate and Kindergarten Class Size Data ......................................................................................................... 49 Household Data ................................................................................................................................................... 49 New Households Within The School District – 10 Year History ........................................................................... 51 School-Age Children Within Park Hill School District Households ....................................................................... 52
FUTURE ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS ................................................................................................................... 53
Projection Methods ......................................................................................................................................... 53 Cohort Survival Method....................................................................................................................................... 53 Household Projections Method ........................................................................................................................... 57
Student Enrollment Projections ....................................................................................................................... 59 Student Enrollment Projection Summary – Tables .............................................................................................. 59 Student Enrollment Projection Summary – Graph .............................................................................................. 62
Facility Planning ............................................................................................................................................... 63 Planning Criteria .................................................................................................................................................. 63 Long-Range Facility Plan ...................................................................................................................................... 66 School Capacity Analysis ...................................................................................................................................... 67
Future District Growth Trends .......................................................................................................................... 71 Estimated Population of the Park Hill School District (2018) .............................................................................. 72 Estimated Rate of Change in Population (2018-2028) ........................................................................................ 73 Estimated Children Under the Age of 5 (2018) .................................................................................................... 74 Estimated Change In Number of Children Under the Age of 5 (2018-2028) ....................................................... 75
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Demographic Profile of the Park Hill School District is produced annually to assist school district leaders and planners in annual budgeting, review of district attendance boundaries, and long-range planning efforts.
The following reflects some of the significant data points found within the 2018-2019 Demographic Profile:
• The estimated population of the school district is 71,541 with the populations within the municipality of the city of Kansas City and the unincorporated portions of Platte County making up over 80% of the population.
• Based on 2018-2019 K-12 enrollment figures, Park Hill School District is the 16th largest school district in Missouri. Since 2017-2018, the Park Hill School District has moved from 18th largest to 16th largest school district in Missouri, surpassing the St. Joseph and Fox C-6 school districts in total student enrollment.
• Of twelve suburban Kansas City, Missouri school districts . . . o Park Hill School District has realized the second largest percentage population increase (+14.9%)
since 2010 (behind Platte County R-3). o Park Hill ranks third in enrollment growth percentage since 1998-1999, growing by 32.7%. o Park Hill ranks second in estimated median home value ($247,649) (behind Platte County R-3). o Park Hill has the second lowest total tax levy ($5.3955) (behind Platte County R-3). o Park Hill ranks first in estimated college graduates or professional degrees within the district
population (50.8%). • Park Hill's K-12 student enrollment for 2018-2019 is 11,617. This is a 1.4% increase from the prior year and
the thirty-fifth (35) consecutive year of enrollment growth. • Seven of thirteen grade levels in 2018-2019 are at their highest enrollment ever (1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, and 12).
Total aggregate enrollment in elementary grades (K-5), middle school grades (6-8), and high school grades (9-12) are at their historical highs.
• 2018-2019 elementary school enrollments range from 444 (Prairie Point) to 627 (Tiffany Ridge). The enrollment difference between Park Hill High School (2,013) and Park Hill South (1,626) is 387.
• The ethnic diversity of student enrollment continues to increase with diverse populations currently making up 32.6% of the total student enrollment (an all-time high).
• For the fourth consecutive year, the percentage of students qualifying for free and reduced lunch through the National School Lunch Program has decreased. The value in 2014-2015 was 29.7% (all-time high) and is currently 27.2%.
• The mobility of students is stable with nearly 10.3% of students being in the district less than one year, and 17.8% of students being within the district less than two years. This statistic excludes kindergarteners and first graders.
• The 2018-2019 kindergarten class is 819, the third largest kindergarten class ever. • In 2018, 391 new households were constructed within the district, down from 650 the prior year. All these
households are classified as single-family homes. During the previous two years, the district added 748 households that were classified as “multi-family” which includes apartments and duplexes.
• Enrollment projections made from mathematical models estimates student enrollment to continue to increase over the next decade, with total enrollment anticipated to be between 12,936 and 13,190 in 2028-2029.
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INTRODUCTION
ABOUT THE 2018-2019 DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE
The purpose of the 2018-2019 Demographic Profile of the Park Hill School District is to provide Park Hill School District patrons, business leaders, civic organizations and other interested persons detailed demographic and socioeconomic information about the Park Hill School District and Park Hill community. The demographic profile includes historical information, current trends, and future enrollment projections that assist district leaders in annual budgeting, review of district attendance boundaries, and long-range planning efforts.
Enrollment data presented in this report was compiled from Park Hill School District core data and through historical figures maintained by the Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education. Data used in this report comes from multiple sources, including:
• 2010 decennial United States Census compiled by the United States Census Bureau • Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services • AGS demographic data, provided by Decision Data Resources • Geographic Enterprises and Tactician Corporation • Missouri Spatial Data Information Service • STI: POPSTATS projections from Synergos Technologies, Inc.
This report is divided into four major parts: (1) Introduction (2) Student Enrollment, (3) Supporting Demographic Data, and (4) Future Enrollment Projections.
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ABOUT THE PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT
Park Hill School District (PHSD) is a public school district, with pre-kindergarten (pre-K) programs through grade 12. The district includes ten elementary schools, three middle schools (including a sixth grade center), two high schools, a day treatment school (Russell Jones Education Center), and a 40,000 square foot Early Childhood Education Center (Gerner Family Early Education Center). Other support facilities include a district Aquatic Center, Underground Support Services, and the District Office. As a part of the district’s long-range facility planning to support enrollment growth, the district will open Hopewell Elementary School (Elementary School #11) and Walden Middle School (Middle School #4) in Fall 2019.
PHSD provides comprehensive educational services for students in pre-K through grade 12. Specifically, two district high schools provide comprehensive educational services for students in grades 9-12. Three district middle schools (including a 6th grade center) provide comprehensive educational services for students in grades 6-8. Ten district elementary schools provide comprehensive educational services for students in grades K-5. The Russell Jones Education Center provides educational services in a day treatment setting for K-12 students with special needs. The LEAD Innovation Studio provides specialized educational programming to 9-12 grade students from both high schools.
PHSD’s Gerner Family Early Education Center (GFEEC) provides fee-based educational services for pre-K students (ages 3-5), early childhood special education (ECSE) students, and English Language Learners (ELL), Head Start, and supports Parents as Teachers (PAT).
PHSD also offers an array of community services including Adventure Club (Day Care), Community Education and a district natatorium (Aquatic Center).
DISTRICT GEOGRAPHY
The Park Hill School District, formally organized in 1951 under the provisions of Missouri’s School Reorganization Statute of 1948, encompasses 73 square miles located in the southern third of Platte County, located just north of downtown Kansas City, Missouri. The Missouri River forms the southern and western boundaries of the district and also delineates the state line between Missouri and Kansas. The northern boundary gerrymanders in stair-step fashion from Northwest 76th Street and the Clay County line to Northwest 120th Street, the northern most point of the district. The northern boundary divides the Kansas
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City International Airport, with one of the three airport terminals lying within district boundaries, and the remaining portions of the airport lying within the Platte County R-3 School District, the neighboring district to the north.
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DISTRICT MUNICIPALITIES
Predominantly rural-oriented in the past, the district has steadily changed to a more suburban type district, blending both residential and commercial growth. Approximately 43% of the school district lies within the city limits of Kansas City, Missouri. There are seven other incorporated communities: Parkville, Lake Waukomis, Houston Lake, Northmoor, Riverside, Platte Woods, Weatherby Lake, and the unincorporated communities of Waldron and Platte County. The 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census counts for each of these communities is listed in the table below. In addition, estimates of the 2017 population, and projections for the 2027 population are provided.
Community 2000 Population
2010 Population
Estimated 2018
Population
% Growth 2000-2018
Projected 2028
Population
% Est. Growth 2018-
2028
Parkville 4,189 5,554 6,757 61.3% 7,998 18.4%
Lake Waukomis 918 870 794 -13.5% 1,024 29.0%
Kansas City (within Park Hill District only) 33,270 37,100 43,711 31.4% 53,888 23.3%
Houston Lake 284 235 195 -31.3% 235 20.5%
Northmoor 399 325 240 -39.8% 300 25.0%
Riverside 2,979 2,937 3,641 22.2% 4,547 24.9%
Platte Woods 474 385 909 91.8% 1,104 21.5%
Unincorporated Platte County (estimated) 9,899 13,132 13,513 36.5% 16,217 20.0%
Weatherby Lake 1,873 1,723 1,781 -4.9% 2,136 19.9%
Park Hill School District 54,285 62,261 71,541 31.8% 87,449 22.2% * Source U.S. Census and STI: POPSTATS projections from Synergos Technologies, Inc.
Projected 2024
Estimated 2018 population analysis shows a 31.8% population growth in the Park Hill School District since 2000. This is strong, and nearly twice the national population growth rate during the last decade. Nearly 80% of the school district's population resides in the city of Kansas City and the unincorporated portion of the school district.
Homes that are presently being built range from $150,000 to more than $1,000,000, with the median home value of $247,115.
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DISTRICT MAPS
The following pages include the following maps of the Park Hill School District:
Map of Area School Districts. This map shows school districts that surround the Park Hill School District on both sides of the state line and the interstates.
Map of Park Hill School District Municipalities. This map shows the geography of the eight municipalities included within the Park Hill School District: Houston Lake, Kansas City, Lake Waukomis, Northmoor, Parkville, Platte Woods, Riverside and Weatherby Lake. Unincorporated sections of Platte County within the district boundaries are also included.
Aerial Overview Map of Park Hill School District. This map shows the aerial geography of the municipalities included within the Park Hill School District. Unincorporated sections of Platte County within the district boundaries are also included.
Zip Codes Within Park Hill School District Boundaries. This map overlays the United States Postal Service Zip Codes within the Park Hill School District.
Map of 2018-2019 Park Hill School District Boundaries. This map shows the Park Hill School District school boundaries as of April 2012 when the boundaries were last changed. Note: New school boundaries will be implemented beginning in July 2019.
Map of Missouri School Districts by County Boundaries. This map shows Missouri school districts my county.
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MAP OF AREA SCHOOL DISTRICTS
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MAP OF PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT MUNICPALITIES
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AERIAL OVERVIEW MAP OF PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT
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ZIP CODES WITHIN PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT BOUNDARIES
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MAP OF 2018-2019 PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT BOUNDARIES
Note: New school boundaries will be implemented beginning in July 2019.
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MISSOURI SCHOOL DISTRICTS BY COUNTY BOUNDARIES
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2017-2018 STATISTICS OF MISSOURI PUBLIC SCHOOLS
The data on the following page is published annually by the Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE) at the conclusion of each school year. Data for 2018-2019 will not be made available until Fall 2019.
2017-2018 STATISTICS OF MISSOURI PUBLIC SCHOOLS Administrative and Supervisory Personnel School Nurse . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,667 Superintendent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 514 Diagnostic Speech/Language . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 384 Assistant Superintendent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279 Audiologist . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Administrative Assistant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 Educational Diagnostician . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260 Instructional Assistant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Occupational Therapist . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 556 Career Education Administrator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 Physical Therapist . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238 Special Education Administrator . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244 Orientation and Mobility Specialist . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Federal Programs Coordinator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128 School/Home Coordinator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293 Total (duplicated count) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,367 Voc. Adjustment/Work Experience Coordinator. . . . . . 3 Total (duplicated count) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,438 High School Principal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 564 Assistant High School Principal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 592 Total Administrative and Supervisory Personnel 16,481 Junior High Principal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 (duplicated count) Assistant Junior High Principal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Middle School Principal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 369 Classroom Teachers
Assistant Middle School Principal . . . . . . . . . . . . . 327 High School . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20,135 Elementary Principal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,234 Junior High . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,924 Assistant Elementary Principal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 397 Middle School . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,020 Director of Elementary Education . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Elementary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33,305 Director of Secondary Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Early Childhood Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,519 Total (duplicated count) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,596 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,177 Total Classroom Teachers (duplicated count) . . . . . . . . 69,082 High School Supervisor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 Total Certificated Staff (duplicated count). . . . . . . . . . . . 85,563 Junior High Supervisor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Middle School Supervisor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Number of School District
Elementary Supervisor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 (Actual as of July 1, 2018) Career Education Supervisor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Elementary Districts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 General Supervisor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260 Districts Maintaining High School . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 448 Other Supervisor/Coordinator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,318 Total Number of School Districts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 518 Total (duplicated count) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,747 Charter LEA’s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 State Board Operated Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 High School Librarian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 485 Missouri Course Access & Virtual Sch . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Junior High Librarian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Middle School Librarian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 280 Number of School Buildings
Elementary Librarian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 920 (Actual as of July 1, 2018) Instructional Media Technologist . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 High Schools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 566 Library Supervisor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Jr. High Schools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 Learning Resource Director . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Middle Schools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 289 Instructional Technology Director . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 Elementary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,228 Total (duplicated count) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,883 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 Charter High Schools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 High School Guidance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,065 Charter Middle Schools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Junior High Guidance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 Charter Elementary Schools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 Middle School Guidance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 514 State Board Operated Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 Elementary Guidance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,285 Missouri Course Access & Virtual Sch . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Guidance Supervisor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Voc. Special Needs Guidance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Fall Enrollment Voc. Placement Coordinator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 (2017-2018) Voc. Evaluator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Elementary Schools (Grades K-8) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 616,315 School Psychological Examiner . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209 Secondary Schools (Grades 9-12) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 267,388 School Psychologist . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 883,703 School Social Worker . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 464 Other Pupil Personnel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 515 Total (duplicated count) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,450
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DEMOGRAPHIC COMPARISONS – STATE OF MISSOURI PUBLIC SCHOOLS
According to the Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE) data collection, the state of Missouri educates 915,910 students within 558 school districts and charter schools. The Park Hill school district currently ranks as the 16th largest school district in the state with a 2018-2019 official K-12 enrollment of 11,617, and a Pre-K to 12 enrollment of 12,062. Park Hill School District was also the 16th largest Missouri public school district in 2017-2018.
TWENTY-FIVE LARGEST SCHOOL DISTRICTS IN MISSOURI (ENROLLMENT)
Rank School District 2018-2019 K-12 Enrollment
2018-2019 Pre-K-12 Enrollment
1 SPRINGFIELD R-XII 24,931 25,900 2 ROCKWOOD R-VI 20,899 21,616 3 NORTH KANSAS CITY 74 20,096 20,807 4 ST. LOUIS CITY 19,778 21,848 5 LEE'S SUMMIT R-VII 18,075 18,413 6 COLUMBIA 93 17,914 18,555 7 FT. ZUMWALT R-II 17,703 18,010 8 PARKWAY C-2 17,626 18,004 9 HAZELWOOD 17,066 17,506 10 WENTZVILLE R-IV 16,798 17,255 11 FRANCIS HOWELL R-III 16,763 17,542 12 BLUE SPRINGS R-IV 14,385 14,604 13 KANSAS CITY 33 14,287 15,390 14 INDEPENDENCE 30 13,180 13,718 15 LIBERTY 53 12,505 12,755 16 PARK HILL 11,617 12,062 17 FOX C-6 11,184 11,368 18 ST. JOSEPH 10,922 11,196 19 MEHLVILLE R-IX 10,022 10,352 20 FERGUSON-FLORISSANT R-II 9,950 10,146 21 JEFFERSON CITY 8,813 9,049 22 RAYTOWN C-2 8,418 8,855 23 JOPLIN SCHOOLS 7,504 7,714 24 LINDBERGH SCHOOLS 6,936 7,080 25 WAYNESVILLE R-VI 6,396 6,689
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LARGEST SCHOOL DISTRICTS IN MISSOURI (GEOGRAPHIC)
At 73 square miles, Park Hill School District ranks as the 374th largest school district geographically. The largest school district geographically in Missouri is Putnam County R-1 (570 square miles).
Park Hill School District ranks 34th in student density (163 students per square mile). Clayton School District ranks the highest in student density (835 students per square mile).
DEMOGRAPHIC COMPARISONS – BENCHMARK SCHOOL DISTRICTS
The Park Hill School District utilizes eleven other suburban Kansas City, Missouri school districts to benchmark statistics throughout the organization, including Academic Services (i.e. student achievement scores), Human Resources (i.e. employee compensation), and Business Services (i.e. tax rates). The following tables compare Park Hill to these benchmark districts in various demographic categories. This data is collected by the Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education and the U.S. Census Bureau.
BENCHMARK POPULATION DATA This table provides values and relative ranks for various population data. Values ranked the highest in the group are highlighted in orange.
School District Area Square Miles
Total Population (2010)
Estimated Total Population (2018)
% Population Growth 2010-2018
Estimated Percent Population 17 years old or younger (2018)
Blue Springs R-IV (048-068) 56.6 (07) 76,331 (04) 81,337 (04) 6.6% (06) 23.2% (08) Center 58 (048-080) 11.6 (12) 24,971 (11) 26,324 (11) 5.4% (07) 22.8% (10) Fort Osage R-I (048-066) 118.4 (01) 25,145 (10) 25,857 (12) 2.8% (09) 24.0% (04) Grandview C-4 (048-074) 38.2 (09) 31,917 (09) 32,968 (09) 3.3% (08) 23.3% (06) Hickman Mills C-1 (048-072) 30.4 (11) 47,092 (08) 48,207 (08) 2.4% (10) 26.3% (02) Independence 30 (048-077) 42.7 (08) 94,720 (02) 96,954 (03) 2.4% (11) 22.9% (09) Lee's Summit R-VII (048-071) 116.4 (02) 91,982 (03) 100,601 (02) 9.4% (05) 23.3% (06) Liberty 53 (024-090) 82.6 (05) 53,223 (07) 60,572 (06) 13.8% (03) 26.8% (01) North Kansas City (024-093) 87.4 (04) 123,348 (01) 136,202 (01) 10.4% (04) 23.9% (05) Park Hill (083-005) 73.2 (06) 62,261 (05) 71,541 (05) 14.9% (02) 22.6% (11) Platte Co. R-III (083-003) 99.4 (03) 22,548 (12) 27,156 (10) 20.4% (01) 24.8% (03) Raytown C-2 (048-073) 32.1 (10) 58,838 (06) 60,042 (07) 2.0% (12) 22.3% (12)
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BENCHMARK ENROLLMENT DATA The table below provides values and relative ranks for school enrollment data. Values ranked the highest in the group are highlighted in orange.
School District 1998-1999 School Enrollment
2018-2019 School Enrollment
% Enrollment Growth 1999-2019 (20 Years)
% Enrollment Growth 2009-2019 (10 Years)
Est 2018--Percentage of School-Age Children Living in the District Who Attend District Schools 2018
Blue Springs R-IV (048-068) 12,471 (03) 14,385 (03) 15.3% (06) 4.5% (07) 103.7% (02)
Center 58 (048-080) 2,714 (11) 2,531 (12) -6.7% (11) 10.5% (05) 61.5% (11)
Fort Osage R-I (048-066) 4,886 (09) 4,895 (09) 0.2% (09) 1.9% (09) 105.9% (01)
Grandview C-4 (048-074) 4,357 (10) 4,136 (11) -5.1% (10) 4.2% (08) 73.8% (10)
Hickman Mills C-1 (048-072) 7,311 (07) 5,353 (08) -26.8% (12) -20.9% (12) 58.4% (12)
Independence 30 (048-077) 11,578 (04) 13,180 (04) 13.8% (07) 0.4% (10) 81.4% (09)
Lee's Summit R-VII (048-071) 13,614 (02) 18,075 (02) 32.8% (04) 5.6% (06) 102.8% (03)
Liberty 53 (024-090) 6,276 (08) 12,505 (05) 99.3% (02) 24.6% (02) 100.9% (04)
North Kansas City (024-093) 16,899 (01) 20,096 (01) 18.9% (05) 11.9% (04) 85.2% (08)
Park Hill (083-005) 8,647 (05) 11,617 (06) 34.3% (03) 14.5% (03) 98.4% (05)
Platte Co. R-III (083-003) 1,891 (12) 4,178 (10) 120.9% (01) 32.7% (01) 86.4% (07)
Raytown C-2 (048-073) 8,356 (06) 8,418 (07) 0.7% (08) -2.3% (11) 86.7% (06)
23
BENCHMARK DEMOGRAPHIC DATA The following table provides values and relative ranks for household data. Values ranked the highest in the group are highlighted in orange.
School District Number of Households (2018)
Est. 2018 Average Household Size
Est 2018 Estimated College Graduate or Professional Degree (includes Associate Degree)
Est. 2018 Estimated Median Home Value
2018 Estimated Percentage of Households in Poverty
Blue Springs R-IV (048-068) 31,014 (04) 2.6 (04) 45.2% (05) $210,869 (05) 7.3% (10) Center 58 (048-080) 12,720 (10) 2.1 (12) 44.0% (06) $174,812 (06) 13.5% (05) Fort Osage R-I (048-066) 9,259 (12) 2.8 (01) 21.5% (12) $146,010 (09) 14.0% (03) Grandview C-4 (048-074) 12,997 (09) 2.5 (06) 36.3% (08) $168,103 (08) 13.4% (06) Hickman Mills C-1 (048-072) 19,071 (08) 2.5 (05) 27.7% (10) $123,427 (12) 18.1% (01) Independence 30 (048-077) 41,046 (02) 2.3 (10) 24.1% (11) $124,406 (11) 16.4% (02) Lee's Summit R-VII (048-071) 37,499 (03) 2.7 (03) 50.2% (02) $246,411 (03) 6.6% (11) Liberty 53 (024-090) 21,599 (07) 2.7 (02) 50.2% (02) $237,671 (04) 6.2% (12) North Kansas City (024-093) 56,432 (01) 2.4 (08) 38.4% (07) $174,560 (07) 9.1% (07) Park Hill (083-005) 28,847 (05) 2.5 (06) 50.8% (01) $247,115 (02) 7.6% (09) Platte Co. R-III (083-003) 11,480 (11) 2.3 (10) 46.2% (04) $249,649 (01) 7.8% (08) Raytown C-2 (048-073) 24,801 (06) 2.4 (09) 28.9% (09) $133,531 (10) 14.0% (03)
24
BENCHMARK SCHOOL FINANCE DATA The table below provides values and relative ranks for school finance data. Values ranked the lowest in the group are highlighted in orange (except where noted).
School District 2008-2009 Total Tax Levy
2018-2019 Total Tax Levy
10-Year Change in Tax Levy
Annual Property Tax Burden for Home Owner (Home Value $229,253)
Current Expenditures Per Average Daily Attendance 2017-2018
Blue Springs R-IV (048-068) $ 5.5307 (05) $ 5.7286 (04) $ 0.1979 (04) $ 2,495 (04) $ 9,902 (01)
Center 58 (048-080) $ 5.8151 (09) $ 6.6139 (11) $ 0.7988 (08) $ 2,881 (11) $ 15,268 (12)
Fort Osage R-I (048-066) $ 4.9096 (02) $ 6.3700 (08) $ 1.4604 (12) $ 2,775 (08) $ 10,223 (04)
Grandview C-4 (048-074) $ 5.6132 (07) $ 5.6255 (03) $ 0.0123 (01) $ 2,450 (03) $ 12,622 (10)
Hickman Mills C-1 (048-072) $ 6.1400 (12) $ 7.0402 (12) $ 0.9002 (11) $ 3,067 (12) $ 12,948 (11)
Independence 30 (048-077) $ 5.0841 (03) $ 5.8010 (05) $ 0.7169 (06) $ 2,527 (05) $ 10,239 (05)
Lee's Summit R-VII (048-071) $ 5.8359 (10) $ 5.8811 (06) $ 0.0452 (02) $ 2,562 (06) $ 11,320 (07)
Liberty 53 (024-090) $ 5.6400 (08) $ 6.4550 (10) $ 0.8150 (09) $ 2,812 (10) $ 10,116 (02)
North Kansas City 74 (024-093) $ 5.8898 (11) $ 6.4235 (09) $ 0.5337 (05) $ 2,798 (09) $ 10,978 (06)
Park Hill (083-005) $ 5.3027 (04) $ 5.3955 (02) $ 0.0928 (03) $ 2,350 (02) $ 11,972 (09)
Platte Co. R-III (083-003) $ 4.1953 (01) $ 5.0193 (01) $ 0.8240 (10) $ 2,186 (01) $ 10,157 (03)
Raytown C-2 (048-073) $ 5.5324 (06) $ 6.3200 (07) $ 0.7876 (07) $ 2,753 (07) $ 11,617 (08)
25
STUDENT ENROLLMENT
In this section of the 2018-2019 Demographic Profile the Park Hill School District historical enrollment data is depicted in various tables and graphs. In addition, data on district housing and birthrates are shared in order to establish trends relevant to enrollment growth in future years.
HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT DATA
This section includes the following tables, charts, and graphs: Student Enrollment Table By Grade – 25-Year Historical (1995-2019). This table summarizes official enrollment in the district over the last twenty-five years. K-12 Student Enrollment Chart – 25-Year Historical (1995-2019). This graph represents enrollment and enrollment growth over the last twenty-five years. Annual Growth in K-12 Student Enrollment – 25-Year Historical (1995-2019). This graph represents enrollment growth (number of students) over the last twenty-five years.
26
STUDENT ENROLLMENT TABLE BY GRADE – 25-YEAR HISTORICAL (1995-2019)
* highlighted cells (orange) denote the largest historical enrollments for each grade level (K, 1, 2, etc.) and grade spans (Elementary, Middle, High School).
27
K-12 STUDENT ENROLLMENT CHART– 25-YEAR HISTORICAL (1995-2019)
8,050 8,220 8,318
8,472 8,652
8,858 9,004
9,171 9,343 9,460 9,498
9,648 9,765 9,879 10,106 10,159 10,199 10,299
10,448 10,504 10,713
11,113 11,287
11,458 11,617
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000 K-
12 E
NRO
LLM
ENT
28
ANNUAL GROWTH IN K-12 STUDENT ENROLLMENT – 25-YEAR HISTORICAL (1995-2019)
137
170
98
154
180
206
146
167 172
117
38
150
117 114
227
53 40
100
149
56
209
400
174 171 159
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
29
CURRENT ENROLLMENT
This section of the 2018-2019 Demographic Profile of the Park Hill School District shows data collected on the state’s official student count day and is reflected in various tables, charts and graphs. The Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education has established the annual official enrollment count as the number of students in grades K-12 enrolled on the last Wednesday in September of each year. A second enrollment count is taken in January of each year by all Missouri school districts but is not a part of this report.
The student enrollment value should not be confused with the rate of pupil attendance or average daily attendance (ADA), which is the total hours of student attendance divided by the total hours school is in session. In addition, the state utilizes a third measure to calculate student population – membership. Membership totals are used to differentiate full-time students from part-time. The membership of a student is reported as a full-time equivalency (FTE), such that a student enrolled the last Wednesday of September for 6 hours of a 6-hour day would be reported as a 1.00 FTE for September membership. If that same student was enrolled for 2 hours of a 6-hour day the last Wednesday of January, the January membership would be 0.33 FTE.
For the purposes of this report and the projections made at the end of the report, the September enrollment count has been utilized as the benchmark for comparison from year to year. Any exceptions to this are highlighted throughout the report.
This section includes the following tables, charts, and graphs:
Park Hill School District - District Enrollment (2018-2019). This table summarizes enrollment by school and by grade level.
Park Hill School District Change in District Enrollment from Prior Year (2017-2018 to 2018-2019). This table summarizes where the changes in enrollment occurred (by school and grade level) over the last year.
Park Hill School District School Enrollment Distribution (2018-2019). This graph summarizes enrollment by school.
Park Hill School District Grade Level Distribution (2018-2019). This graph summarizes enrollment by grade level.
Park Hill School District Class Size Analysis. This table summarizes enrollment by grade level and compares these enrollments to benchmark years.
Park Hill School District Student Geographic Distribution. This map plots all students from the 2018-2019 school year on a district map.
Park Hill School District Student Enrollment Density. This shows the density of students enrolled from the 2018-2019 school year on a district map.
30
Park Hill School District Grade Level Distribution and Cohort Growth Since Kindergarten - 2018-2019 Enrollment. This graph represents a key concept in projecting student enrollment – “cohort growth”. This graph shows current enrollment by grade level, and also includes the size of the same cohort when they were kindergarteners. As depicted in the graph, Park Hill School District classes generally increase in size as they pass from grade level to grade level.
Park Hill School District Class of 2019 Cohort Growth – Kindergarten Through 12th Grade. The graph shows the cohort change over the last 13 years of the current graduating class, beginning when they were kindergarteners.
Park Hill School District Diversity of Enrollment (2018-2019). This pie chart represents the diversity of the 2018-2019 student population.
Park Hill School District Change in Diverse Populations (2009-2018). This graph and corresponding data table shows the increase of diverse populations over the last ten years.
Park Hill School District Diverse Populations by School (2018-2019). This graph illustrates the percentage of non-white students within each school.
Park Hill School District Growth in Free and Reduced Lunch Population (2010-2019). Monitoring students who receive free and reduced lunch is a common way for schools and districts to reflect the socioeconomic status of the students and families in the district. This graph shows the increases in the free and reduced population over the last ten years. For the purpose of this annual report and to be consistent with state reporting, the district has utilized the official January membership count to compare free and reduced values.
Park Hill School District Free and Reduced Lunch Population by School (2018-2019). This graph illustrates the percentage of free and reduced students within each school. For the purposes of this annual report, the district has utilized the official January count to compare free and reduced values.
31
PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICTDISTRICT ENROLLMENT (2018-2019)
32
PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT CHANGE IN DISTRICT ENROLLMENT FROM PRIOR YEAR (2017-2018 TO 2018-2019)
33
PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT SCHOOL ENROLLMENT DISTRIBUTION (2018-2019)
475 543 555 556 560
444 449 527
627
539
913 924
836
2,013
1,656
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Chinn English Landing
Graden Hawthorn Line Creek
Prairie Point
Renner Southeast Tiffany Ridge
Union Chapel
Plaza Congress Lakeview Park Hill High
School
Park Hill South
34
PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT GRADE LEVEL DISTRIBUTION (2018-2019)
* denotes the largest cohorts in this grade level
819
879
828
923 933
893
913 910
850
945 949
886 889
750
800
850
900
950
1,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
35
PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT CLASS SIZE ANALYSIS
Class Largest Enrollment for This Class
School Year
Kindergarten 852 2015-2016 1st Grade 879 2018-2019
2nd Grade 914 2017-2018 3rd Grade 923 2018-2019 4th Grade 933 2018-2019 5th Grade 905 2017-2018
Elementary School (K-5) Total 5,275 2018-2019
6th Grade 913 2018-2019 7th Grade 910 2018-2019 8th Grade 895 2016-2017
Middle School (6-8) Total 2,673 2018-2019
9th Grade 952 2015-2016 10th Grade 949 2018-2019 11th Grade 927 2017-2018 12th Grade 889 2018-2019
High School (9-12) Total 3,669 2018-2019
Grand Total 11,617 2018-2019
Annual Increase/ Decrease of Students 400 2018-2019 % of Increase/ Decrease 4.68% 1992-1993
36
PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT STUDENT GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION
37
PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT STUDENT ENROLLMENT DENSITY
38
PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT GRADE LEVEL DISTRIBUTION AND COHORT GROWTH SINCE KINDERGARTEN - 2018-2019 ENROLLMENT
819
879
828
923 933
893913 910
850
945 949
886 889
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Enrollment as Kindergarden Current Enrollment
39
PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT CLASS OF 2019 COHORT GROWTH – KINDERGARTEN THROUGH 12TH GRADE
706740
761787 780 790
810
849867
952935 927
889
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2006-2007(K)
2007-2008(1)
2008-2009(2)
2009-2010(3)
2010-2011(4)
2011-2012(5)
2012-2013(6)
2013-2014(7)
2014-2015(8)
2015-2016(9)
2016-2017(10)
2017-2018(11)
2018-2019(12)
40
PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT DIVERSITY OF ENROLLMENT (2018-2019)
White, 67.4%
African American, 12.3%
Hispanic, 10.1%
Asian, 3.5%
Native American, 0.4%
Pacific Islander, 0.8% Multi Racial, 5.5%
41
PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT CHANGE IN DIVERSE POPULATIONS (2009-2018)
2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019Pacific Islander 90 105 122 115 130 152 155 91 98Native American 84 77 60 56 54 49 49 47 49 40 49Asian 440 457 351 340 332 339 347 351 360 401 401Multi Racial 355 416 441 466 493 523 510 583 641Hispanic 621 667 875 892 943 992 1,001 1,019 1,053 1,113 1,171African American 1,082 1,143 1,071 1,104 1,088 1,074 1,145 1,283 1,318 1,380 1,425White 7,879 7,815 7,397 7,386 7,468 7,469 7,548 7,736 7,842 7,850 7,832
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Pacific Islander
Native American
Asian
Multi Racial
Hispanic
African American
White
42
PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT DIVERSE POPULATIONS BY SCHOOL (2018-2019)
41.1%
33.3%
21.6%
23.9%
37.0%
31.1%
42.5%
40.0%
44.0%
18.4%
33.6%
35.8%
27.6%
36.2%
26.3%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
Axis
Title
District Average = 32.6%
43
PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT GROWTH IN FREE AND REDUCED LUNCH POPULATION* (2018-2019)
* Official Free and Reduced Lunch Counts are based on January Membership Counts
23.8%25.1%
27.2%
28.6% 29.1%29.7%
28.9%27.9%
27.3% 27.2%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019
44
PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT FREE AND REDUCED LUNCH POPULATION BY SCHOOL* (2018-2019)
* Official Free and Reduced Lunch Counts are based on January Membership Counts
36.4%
31.4%
23.6%
20.8%
32.5%31.4%
35.1% 34.6%
30.6%
13.9%
30.9%
28.8%
25.5%27.1%
20.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
District Average = 27.2%
45
PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT MOBILITY DATA One of the major challenges facing schools is student mobility. A student is considered mobile when they transfer schools. Unfortunately, mobility has been demonstrated to be associated with many negative outcomes, including low achievement, grade retention, and dropping out. Students who are in a school or district for a relatively short time do not have as great of an opportunity to benefit from consistent educational programming. Park Hill School District, like any district, is forced to deal with issues related to mobility. While the educational programming that students receive may not differ significantly when transferring from one building to the next within the district, the same cannot be assumed for transferring in from other districts. The following charts display student mobility rates for Park Hill School District, as defined by the percentage of students who are new to the district. “One year mobility” is the percentage of current students who were not in Park Hill last year. More specifically, these students were here on the 2018-2019 September count day but not here on the 2016-2017 September count day. “Two year mobility” is the percentage of current students who were not in the Park Hill School District two years ago, based on them not being in the district on the past two years’ count days. Kindergarten students are not included in the one year student mobility rates. Likewise, kindergarten and first grade students are not included in the two year student mobility calculation.
This section of the 2018-2019 Demographic Profile of the Park Hill School District depicts seven graphs showing student mobility rates for Park Hill School District, as defined by the percentage of students who are new to the Park Hill School District.
District Mobility (2018-2019). This graph shows the number of students new to the district for the last two school years.
Mobility By Grade Span (2018-2019). This graph disaggregates the mobility data by grade span for the last two school years.
Mobility By Ethnicity (2018-2019). This graph disaggregates the mobility data by ethnicity for the last two school years.
Mobility By Free and Reduced Lunch Status (2018-2019). This graph disaggregates the mobility data by free and reduced lunch status for the 2013-2014 school year.
Mobility By School (2018-2019). This graph disaggregates the mobility data by school.
Continuous Park Hill Enrollment Since Kindergarten (2018-2019). This graph shows the number of students in each grade level that have been Park Hill School District students for their entire school careers.
10 Year Historical Mobility of Students. This graph shows the 1 and 2 year mobility rate over the last 10 years.
46
DISTRICT MOBILITY (2018-2019)
District Mobility Mobility by Grade Span
Mobility by Ethniciy Mobility by Free and Reduced Status
10.3%
17.8%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
Students New Since 2017-2018 Students New Since 2016-2017
12.20%10.00%
8.30%
21.40%
18.30%
14.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
Elementary School Middle School High School
Students New Since 2017-2018 Students New Since 2016-2017
8.20%
17.10%14.50%
7.90%
16.20%
28.50%
23.60%
14.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
Asian African American Hispanic White
Students New Since 2017-2018 Students New Since 2016-2017
17.00%
7.80%
28.00%
14.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
Free/Reduced Regular
Students New Since 2017-2018 Students New Since 2016-2017
47
Mobility by School
7.70%
9.00%
11.20%
9.10%9.80%
11.80%
15.20%
9.60%
7.50%
15.80%
10.90%
13.30%14.20% 14.10%
8.70%
13.80%14.40%
20.10%
17.10%17.80%
19.90%
22.30%
19.70%
13.80%
27.70%
18.50%
20.10%20.90%
26.10%
22.70%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
Students New Since 2017-2018 Students New Since 2016-2017
48
CONTINUOUS PARK HILL ENROLLMENT SINCE KINDERGARTEN (2018-2019)
10 YEAR HISTORICAL MOBILITY OF STUDENTS
School Year
Students in Park Hill
School District < 1 Year
Students in Park Hill School
District < 2 Years
2009-2010 10.5% 18.7% 2010-2011 10.6% 16.9% 2011-2012 10.9% 18.7% 2012-2013 11.7% 19.1% 2013-2014 11.0% 19.3% 2014-2015 11.1% 19.2% 2015-2016 11.1% 19.8% 2016-2017 10.2% 19.4% 2017-2018 9.4% 18.8% 2018-2019 10.3% 17.8%
89%82%
72%65%
60%56%
49% 50% 48%53%
43% 44%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Percentage of Current Cohorts Who Have Been in the District Continuously Since Kindergarten
49
SUPPORTING DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
PLATTE COUNTY LIVE BIRTHRATES AND KINDERGARTEN ENROLLMENTS
COLLECTING BIRTHRATE DATA Birthrate data is collected for Platte County by the Missouri Department of Health and is utilized in projecting future kindergarten class sizes. Although not all Platte County births ultimately attend Park Hill schools (four public school districts service families in Platte County), there has been a historical link between the live birthrate in the county, and the subsequent kindergarten enrollment. For example, 2010 yielded one the highest number of births that Platte County had ever seen (1,157), and subsequently yielded Park Hill School District’s largest kindergarten class during the 2015-2016 school year (852). This cohort will continue to grow as they move through their educational careers in Park Hill – a phenomenon known as “cohort growth”. The kindergarten class of 2018-2019 is 819 students and represents a decrease in the kindergarten class from 2017-2018 (-12). The percentage of Platte County births compared to kindergarten enrollment five years later continues to fall within the range of 67-73%, currently at a five-year average of 72.5%.
BIRTHRATE AND KINDERGARTEN CLASS SIZE DATA The table below lists the Platte County birth data and corresponding kindergarten enrollment (5 years later).
Birth Year Platte County Live Births
Increase Kindergarten Year
Park Hill Kindergarten Enrollment
% of Platte County Live Births as
Students in PHSD Kindergarten Class
Kindergarten Increase
2004 1,062 49 2009-2010 705 66.4% -22 2005 1,112 50 2010-2011 745 67.0% +40 2006 1,068 -44 2011-2012 753 70.5% +8 2007 1,092 24 2012-2013 771 70.6% +18 2008 1,088 -4 2013-2014 789 72.5% +18 2009 1,091 3 2014-2015 822 75.3% +33 2010 1,157 66 2015-2016 852 73.6% +30 2011 1,158 1 2016-2017 793 68.5% -59 2012 1,136 -22 2017-2018 831 73.2% +38 2013 1,142 6 2018-2019 819 71.7% -12 2014 1,106 -36
2015 1,198 92
2016 1,242 44
2017 1,190 -52
HOUSEHOLD DATA
New households within the Park Hill School District are calculated through review of monthly reports submitted to the district by the Home Builders Association of Greater Kansas City, Platte County (Permit
50
Reports), and the Kansas City Planning and Development Department. Households are classified as either single-family residences, or multi-family residences. Multi-family residences include duplexes, four-plexes and apartment complexes.
As of 2018-2019, the Park Hill School District includes 32,563 households. This equates to approximately 0.36 school-aged (K-12) children per household. Households have steadily increased over the last twenty years as more residential development has occurred. Since 1980, the district has seen an annual increase in new households at approximately 480 new households per year. In 2018, 391 new households were constructed, reflecting the lowest number of new households since 2014 (275). New home construction in the Park Hill School District is consistent with the metropolitan Kansas City area.
The next page includes the graph: New Households within the School District – 10 Year History. This graph shows the number of new homes constructed within the school district since the 2009-2010 school year. The graph shows a significant decrease in new homes in the last half of the decade compared to the first half.
51
NEW HOUSEHOLDS WITHIN THE SCHOOL DISTRICT – 10 YEAR HISTORY
120136
104
265 261 275
419
889
650
391
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019
New Households
52
SCHOOL-AGE CHILDREN WITHIN PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT HOUSEHOLDS The number of students per household in the Park Hill School District has remained steady over the last decade. The table below shows data from the last ten years, with the number of households in the Park Hill School District in 2009-2010 at 29,173. As of 2018-2019, each Park Hill household yields 0.357 K-12 students, or approximately 1 student per every 3 households. The number of K-12 students per household in the district has remained between 0.348 to 0.363 over the last ten years.
School Year District Enrollment Households in PHSD
Students Per Household
2009-2010 10,159 29,173 0.348 2010-2011 10,199 29,309 0.348 2011-2012 10,299 29,413 0.350 2012-2013 10,448 29,678 0.352 2013-2014 10,504 29,939 0.351 2014-2015 10,713 30,214 0.355 2015-2016 11,113 30,633 0.363 2016-2017 11,287 31,522 0.358 2017-2018 11,458 32,172 0.356 2018-2019 11,617 32,563 0.357
3 Year Average 0.357 7 Year Average 0.356
53
FUTURE ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
One benefit to tracking district enrollment trends is the ability to utilize the trend data to project future enrollment. Predicting future enrollment is an important piece in many school processes: long-range planning, budgeting, staffing, and predicting future building and capital needs. The Park Hill School District has utilized two tools to predict future enrollment – cohort growth and household construction patterns. These tools allow for three projection models (3-Year Cohort, 7-Year Cohort, Household) that create an anticipated range of enrollment for future years.
PROJECTION METHODS
COHORT SURVIVAL METHOD Two of the three methods of projecting student enrollment for future years involve the use of “cohort survival.” Cohort survival is a measure of the rate at which students grouped by grade level pass into the next grade level a year later. For example, in 2016-2017 Park Hill School District’s class of 2nd graders was 879. A year later, this class became a third-grade class of 894. Using this example, the rate of cohort survival (0.89% increase) is calculated in the following way:
(894-879)/879 = 1.71%
The 1.71% increase is a measure of the likelihood our second grade class will become larger or smaller as the class passes into the third grade the following year. To minimize the effects of an exceptional year, three and seven-year cohorts are calculated by averaging the cohort survival for three and seven-years respectively. The following tables show how three-year and seven-year cohort survival averages are calculated.
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3-YEAR COHORT PROJECTION METHOD To determine projections based upon the three-year cohort, the three-year cohort survival rate is calculated for each grade level, and these rates are added to the previous year’s enrollment. For example, projections for the 1st grade class of 2019-2020 are based upon the 2018-2019 kindergarten enrollment (a known value of 819) and the survival rate of the last three years in which a kindergarten class has become 1st graders (+4.16%). Therefore, the projection for the 2018-2019 1st grade class using this method is 853 students [819 + (819 x 4.16%) = 853].
Kindergarten to First Grade 3-Year Cohort Growth
Year Students in Kindergarten
Students in 1st Grade 1 Year
Later % Increase
2015-2016 852 871 2.23%
2016-2017 793 829 4.54%
2017-2018 831 879 5.78%
3 Year Average Increase 2,476 2,579 4.16%
Projections for subsequent years are calculated using the same three-year cohort survival rates for each grade level.
7-YEAR COHORT PROJECTION METHOD To determine projections based upon the seven-year cohort, the seven-year cohort survival rate is calculated for each grade level, and these rates are added to the previous year’s enrollment. For example, projections for the 2019-2020 9th grade class is based upon the 2018-2019 8th grade enrollment (a known value of 850) and the survival rate of the last seven years in which an 8th grade class becomes the 9th grade class (+6.77%). Therefore, the projection for the 2019-2020 9th grade class using this method is 908 students [850 + (850 x 6.77%) = 908].
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8th Grade to 9th Grade 7-Year Cohort
Year Students in Eighth Grade
Students in Ninth Grade 1 Year Later % Increase
2011-2012 787 830 5.46%
2012-2013 824 864 4.85%
2013-2014 812 851 4.80%
2014-2015 867 952 9.80%
2015-2016 867 930 7.27%
2016-2017 895 950 6.15%
2017-2018 869 945 8.75%
3 Year Average Increase 5,921 6,322 6.77% Projections for subsequent years are calculated using the same seven-year cohort survival rates for each grade level.
COHORT INDICES The chart below represents the indices used to project growth from one grade level to the next, utilizing 3-year and 7-year cohort figures. These are current values utilizing data from 2008-2009 to 2018-2019 enrollments.
Cohort Movement 3 YEAR AVG 7 YEAR AVG
K-1 4.16% 4.15% 1-2 2.18% 2.45% 2-3 1.48% 2.02% 3-4 2.83% 2.79% 4-5 3.33% 1.91% 5-6 1.17% 2.28% 6-7 5.16% 5.06% 7-8 -0.38% 0.49% 8-9 7.37% 6.77%
9-10 -1.84% -1.28% 10-11 -0.37% -1.45% 11-12 -2.39% -1.31%
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PREDICTING BIRTHRATES One challenge posed in using cohort survival as a projection method is estimating the size of the kindergarten class in future years. Since cohort survival cannot be calculated for the kindergarten class (no class comes before it in previous years), Platte County birthrates are used to estimate the kindergarten class size each year. Over the last three years, an average of 71.1% of births in Platte County (known as “live births”) have attended kindergarten in Park Hill School District schools five years later. For example, in 2013 Platte County reported 1,142 live births. Five years later, in school year 2018-2019, 819 kindergarten students were enrolled in Park Hill School District. Using known values for Platte County birthrates in years 2014 through 2017, kindergarten enrollment for school years 2019-2020 through 2022-2023 can be estimated based upon known birthrates. To calculate this, a regression with live birth as the dependent variable and change per year as the independent variable is utilized to produce a growth curve model that takes into account the non-linear change pattern. Kindergarten enrollment estimations past the school year 2022-2023 cannot be calculated based upon known births (these children have not yet been born). Values for these kindergarten enrollments are based upon a predicted number of children born in Platte County. To predict this, the same growth curve explained above is used and a regression using kindergarten enrollment as the dependent variable and live births and current year as the independent variable is made. Projections made from 3 years of birth data are input into the 3-year cohort projection model, and projections made from 7 years of birth data are included in the 7-year cohort projection model.
KINDERGARTEN CLASS SIZE PROJECTIONS
School Year 3-Years of Data 7-Years of Data
2019-2020 787 796 2020-2021 852 862 2021-2022 883 894 2022-2023 846 857 2023-2024 866 860 2024-2025 886 864 2025-2026 906 868 2026-2027 926 871 2027-2028 946 875 2028-2029 966 878
Using these projection models, the kindergarten class size for 2019-2020 is projected to be between 787 (3-Year Projection) and 796 (7-Year Projection) students.
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HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS METHOD Enrollment projections, based on households, also provides an opportunity to determine student enrollment. By dividing the number of school-age children (currently 11,617) into the number of homes in the school district (32,563), the average number of school-age children per household can be calculated. The 2018-2019 rate is 0.357 students per household. As the district continues to increase households, the number of students per household multiplied by the projected households will provide an enrollment projection. To make these projections the following steps are followed:
1. Project the number of households in the Park Hill School District based upon historical growth.
2. Project the number of students per household based upon historical growth.
3. Calculate district enrollment based upon the above two projections.
4. Distribute the enrollment across grade levels based on historical distribution.
For the household projection method, the district is anticipating the new homes in each year and the students per household values as described in the following table. For these projections, a 7-year average of students per household is used (0.3559).
Year District Households
Students Per Household
Projected Enrollment
2019-2020 33,013 0.3559 11,749 2020-2021 33,463 0.3559 11,909 2021-2022 33,913 0.3559 12,069 2022-2023 34,363 0.3559 12,229 2023-2024 34,813 0.3559 12,390 2024-2025 35,263 0.3559 12,550 2025-2026 35,713 0.3559 12,710 2026-2027 36,163 0.3559 12,870 2027-2028 36,613 0.3559 13,030 2028-2029 37,063 0.3559 13,190
The following pages include the student enrollment projections described below:
Student Enrollment Projection Summary – Tables. These three tables summarize the grade span sizes projected for the next ten years by three different methods. Student Enrollment Projection Summary – Graph. This graph summarizes the grade span sizes for the current school year and projections for the next ten years by three different methods.
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STUDENT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
STUDENT ENROLLMENT PROJECTION SUMMARY – TABLES
Projections made from 3-Year Cohort Growth Data
Grade Level
2019-2020
2020-2021
2021-2022
2022-2023
2023-2024
2024-2025
2025-2026
2026-2027
2027-2028
2028-2029
0 787 852 883 846 866 886 906 926 946 966
1 853 820 887 920 881 902 923 944 965 985
2 898 872 838 906 940 900 922 943 965 986
3 840 911 885 850 919 954 913 936 957 979
4 949 864 937 910 874 945 981 939 962 984
5 964 981 893 968 940 903 976 1,014 970 994
6 903 975 992 903 979 951 914 987 1,026 981
7 960 950 1,025 1,043 950 1,030 1,000 961 1,038 1,079
8 907 956 946 1,021 1,039 946 1,026 996 957 1,034
9 913 974 1,026 1,016 1,096 1,116 1,016 1,102 1,069 1,028 10 928 896 956 1,007 997 1,076 1,096 997 1,082 1,049 11 945 925 893 952 1,003 993 1,072 1,092 993 1,078 12 865 922 903 872 929 979 969 1,046 1,066 969
11,712 11,898 12,064 12,214 12,413 12,581 12,714 12,883 12,996 13,112
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Projections made from 7-Year Cohort Growth Data
Grade Level
2019-2020
2020-2021
2021-2022
2022-2023
2023-2024
2024-2025
2025-2026
2026-2027
2027-2028
2028-2029
0 796 862 894 857 860 864 868 871 875 878
1 853 829 898 931 893 896 900 904 907 911
2 901 874 849 920 954 915 918 922 926 929
3 845 919 892 866 939 973 933 937 941 945
4 949 869 945 917 890 965 1000 959 963 967
5 951 967 886 963 935 907 983 1019 977 981
6 913 973 989 906 985 956 928 1005 1042 999
7 959 959 1022 1039 952 1035 1004 975 1056 1095
8 914 964 964 1027 1044 957 1040 1009 980 1061
9 908 976 1029 1029 1097 1115 1022 1110 1077 1046 10 933 896 963 1016 1016 1083 1101 1009 1096 1063 11 935 919 883 949 1001 1001 1067 1085 994 1080 12 874 923 907 871 937 988 988 1053 1071 981
11,731 11,930 12,121 12,291 12,503 12,655 12,752 12,858 12,905 12,936
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Projections made from Household Growth Data
Grade Level
2019-2020
2020-2021
2021-2022
2022-2023
2023-2024
2024-2025
2025-2026
2026-2027
2027-2028
2028-2029
0 864 875 888 899 912 922 934 946 958 970
1 884 896 908 920 932 944 957 969 981 993
2 894 906 919 931 943 955 967 980 992 1,004
3 893 906 918 930 942 954 967 979 991 1,003
4 898 911 923 935 947 960 972 984 996 1,009
5 900 912 924 937 949 961 974 986 998 1,010
6 898 910 922 935 947 959 971 984 996 1,008
7 924 936 949 962 974 987 999 1,012 1,025 1,037
8 910 922 934 947 959 972 984 996 1,009 1,021
9 958 971 984 997 1,010 1,023 1,036 1,049 1,062 1,075 10 934 947 959 972 985 998 1,010 1,023 1,036 1,048 11 912 925 937 950 962 975 987 1,000 1,012 1,024 12 880 892 904 914 928 940 952 962 974 988
11,749 11,909 12,069 12,229 12,390 12,550 12,710 12,870 13,030 13,190
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STUDENT ENROLLMENT PROJECTION SUMMARY – GRAPH
2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-2026 2026-2027 2027-2028 2028-20293 Year Cohort Projections 11,712 11,898 12,064 12,214 12,413 12,581 12,714 12,883 12,996 13,1127 Year Cohort Projections 11,731 11,930 12,121 12,291 12,503 12,655 12,752 12,858 12,905 12,936Household Projections 11,749 11,909 12,069 12,229 12,390 12,550 12,710 12,870 13,030 13,190
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
3 Year Cohort Projections 7 Year Cohort Projections Household Projections
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FACILITY PLANNING
One use of student enrollment projections is to anticipate the need for additional school buildings. Although projections are not made for growth of each school, projections are made for each school level – elementary (Kindergarten through 5th Grade), middle (6th through 8th Grade) and high school level (9th through 12th Grade). Also, facility needs for early childhood services (pre-Kindergarten), students with special needs, and support services are also influenced by enrollment growth. Projections when each level will reach effective capacity can be anticipated through the use of planning criteria.
PLANNING CRITERIA In the Fall, 2014, the Board of Education approved a set of facility planning criteria to assist the district in preparing for future space and/or facility needs. The 19 criteria were each tied to a Comprehensive School Improvement Plan (CSIP) goal, which form the foundation of the district’s strategic plan. The criteria and CSIP goal alignment are detailed below.
21st Century Learning. We will continue to improve how we educate our learners. Our district will seek out new opportunities to teach and model to our students the effective use of technology to support learning, collaboration, critical thinking, and problem solving skills. CSIP Goal(s): Academic, Employee
Grade Configurations. We will provide grade configurations that ensure educational success through (1) minimizing the number of student transitions between district attendance centers; (2) seeking to streamline district feeder patterns to build a greater sense of tradition and community; and (3) identifying grade configurations that encourage and foster relationships between students, teachers, administrators and parents. CSIP Goal(s): Academic
Specialized Spaces. We value diverse opportunities for each learner. Specialized and innovative facilities will be provided that support instruction of core curriculum, electives, student activities and athletics to ensure that each student is provided a balanced learning experience. Specialized spaces may include, but are not limited to, science labs, music rooms, auditoriums, media centers, gymnasiums, and athletic fields. CSIP Goal(s): Academic, Employee
Special Education. We will provide appropriately designed and equipped spaces for each learner. CSIP Goal(s): Academic, Climate
Student-Teacher Ratio. We will provide effective student-teacher ratios based on district standards and Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education recommendations for considering building capacities and staffing. CSIP Goal(s): Financial, Climate, Academic, Employee
Maintain Quality Facilities. We will provide quality facilities to our students through ongoing maintenance, renovations and repurposing of existing facilities. CSIP Goal(s): Academic, Climate, Employee
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Early Childhood Programming. We will continue to provide an early childhood education program to address the learning needs of young children and to prepare them for future success. CSIP Goal(s): Academic, Climate
Safety and Security. We will include safety and security features in our building projects that help staff and students respond to natural disasters, potential violent acts and general supervision. CSIP Goal(s): Climate, Employee
Temporary Classrooms. For educational, financial and safety reasons, we will not consider mobile or other temporary classrooms as a long-term solution to growth in enrollment or programs. CSIP Goal(s): Financial, Climate, Academic, Employee
Land Requirements for Schools. We will plan for the purchase of land for new and existing facilities prior to need.
• Elementary Schools: 14-20 acres (provide 10-15 acres, plus one acre for every 100 students)
• Middle Schools: 26-40 acres (provide 20-30 acres, plus one acre for every 100 students)
• High Schools: 40-55 acres (provide 30-40 acres plus one acre for every 100 students, and consider an additional 40 acres for competitive playfields and parking)
These are consistent with local school planning standards. CSIP Goal(s): Financial
Appropriate Areas for Learning. We will provide appropriate space for each learner based upon a local, regional and national set of standards. 2014 standards have been set at the following:
• High Schools: 175 square foot per learner
• Middle Schools: 150 square foot per learner
• Elementary Schools: 120 square foot per learner
• District Wide: 145 square foot per learner
The standards are consistent with Council of Educational Facility Planners International and recent school construction projects. CSIP Goal(s): Financial, Climate, Academic, Employee
School Size. We will establish effective school size based upon research, community input and the maximization of existing resources. 2014 standards have been set at the following:
• High Schools: 1,200 to 1,800 students
• Middle Schools: 500 to 900 students
• Elementary Schools: 400 to 650 students
CSIP Goal(s): Financial, Climate, Academic, Employee
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Partnering for Success. We will look for opportunities to maximize student academic success through partnerships with external organizations such as post-secondary, technical trade, business, non-profit and civic organizations. CSIP Goal(s): Financial, Academic, Employee
Recruit, Retain and Develop Staff. We will deploy strategies to recruit, retain and develop the highest quality staff that create the highest quality students. Needs for specialized environments for training, coaching and collaboration for 21st century learning will be considered. CSIP Goal(s): Financial, Climate, Academic, Employee
Technology. We will address strategies to maintain and improve technology hardware, software, training, delivery, dependability and the security of data to support students and staff. CSIP Goal(s): Financial, Academic
Support Service. We will demonstrate operational effectiveness and address district growth by providing quality support services, such as Food Service, Transportation, Maintenance and Operations, Technology, and community use of facilities. CSIP Goal(s): Financial, Academic
Financial Stewardship. We will seek out strategies to minimize the overall cost of financing capital improvements. Broad considerations of costs related to both short and long-term debt and potential “no-tax-increase” bond issues will be integrated into planning strategies. CSIP Goal(s): Financial
Focus on Long-Term Value. We will emphasize long-term value when designing, constructing and renovating district facilities. Decisions will be based on return-on-investment and life cycle methodologies and long-term maintainability and sustainability. CSIP Goal(s): Financial, Academic, Climate
Future Enrollment. We will use current and historical data in association with proven enrollment projection methodologies to forecast future district enrollment growth. CSIP Goal(s): Financial
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LONG-RANGE FACILITY PLAN
In the Spring, 2015, the Park Hill Board of Education adopted the following plan to address future space needs brought on by the projected enrollment growth over the next ten years. The plan entails the construction of a facility for support services, the addition of two elementary schools, the addition of a Middle School, and additional classroom space for high school programming.
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SCHOOL CAPACITY ANALYSIS In educational planning, one way to calculate building capacity is based upon gross square footage per student calculations. The Council of Educational Facility Planners International (CEFPI) and other organizations and states have created standards for the amount of gross square footage needed within schools to effectively maintain the educational programming demands of today’s schools. The gross square footage standards in the table below have been established based upon standards published by CEFPI, and from a review of state and local standards on construction of new facilities for each grade span. These square footage standards have been adopted by the Park Hill School District Board of Education in the Facility Planning – Planning Criteria.
School Type Target Square Footage Per
Student “Effective Capacity”
Highest Limit Square Footage Per
Student “Efficiency Capacity”
Lower Limit Square Footage Per
Student “Functional Capacity”
Elementary Schools 120 129 111 Middle Schools 150 165 135 High Schools 175 197 153 Support Services 12 14 10
Target square footage per student capacities are listed above as “Effective Capacity”. Ranges have been established around the target and defined as “Efficiency Capacity” which is the upper limit of space needed per student before the space available exceeds what is needed, and the “Functional Capacity” which is the lower limit of square footage per student before the operation of the school and programs is hindered by lack of space.
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CURRENT FACILITY CAPACITY
The table below details the current square footage in each Park Hill facility. A red status indicates current enrollment over the defined “effective capacity” for the school/facility. In addition, each grade span is totalled to better understand the overall district condition. These values define the current state, and do not consider student enrollment projection increases in future years.
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The table below details the anticipated square footage in each Park Hill facility for the 2019-2020 school year, including three new facilities: Hopewell Elementary, Walden Middle School and Support and Transportation Services. A red status indicates current enrollment over the defined “effective capacity” for the school/facility. In addition, each grade span is totalled to better understand the overall district condition.
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FUTURE DISTRICT GROWTH TRENDS
The school district also monitors population trends within the entire community to assist in long-range planning. By looking at current and projected trends in the populations of school-aged children, child bearing females, and the entire population, critical decisions can be made regarding future programming demands, as well as facility neeeds. The next section includes the following maps: Estimated Population of the Park Hill School District (2018). This map shows the estimated population density by census block within the school district. A census block group is a geographical unit used by the United States Census Bureau. It is the smallest geographical unit for which the bureau publishes sample data, i.e. data which is only collected from a fraction of all households. Estimated Rate of Change in Population (2018-2028). This map shows the projected change in total population by census block group within district boundaries over ten years. Estimated Children Under the Age of 5 (2018). This map shows the estimated population of children under the age of 5 in 2017 by census block. Estimated Change In the Number of Children Under the Age of 5 (2018-2028). This map shows the projected change in the number of children less than five years of age population by census block group within district boundaries over ten years.
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ESTIMATED POPULATION OF THE PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT (2018)
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ESTIMATED RATE OF CHANGE IN POPULATION (2018-2028)
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ESTIMATED CHILDREN UNDER THE AGE OF 5 (2018)
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ESTIMATED CHANGE IN NUMBER OF CHILDREN UNDER THE AGE OF 5 (2018-2028)