defining the satellite broadband market eco-system1_0915_… · nsr is a global leader in satellite...

www.nsr.com © 2013 – NSR

5 December 2013

Defining the Satellite Broadband Market Eco-System

Present & Future Trends in HTS

Christopher Baugh, President, NSR


About NSR

NSR’s HTS Coverage & History

– Definitions: HTS & MEO-HTS

– Demand Forecast Evolution

Past/Present/Future Trends

Why HTS?

– Industry Bifurcation

What’s Next for HTS?

5 December 2013

Keynote Agenda

2

GVF HTS Roundtable

HTS Roundtable- London 2013


About NSR

NSR is a Global Leader in Satellite Market Research and Consulting

Founded in 2000, NSR specializes in analysis of growth

opportunities across the satellite industry

NSR’s expert consultants are located globally and possess over 140 years of combined

industry experience.

Multi-Client Reports on Various Satellite Topics

Extensive Client Research, Consulting and Advisory Services

“Holistic” approach to research enables NSR to anticipate trends with a higher

degree of confidence and precision than the competition and stay ahead of the curve.

3

December 2013

www.nsr.com


GVF HTS Roundtable


Types of clients NSR serves

include:

Satellite Operators

Satellite Manufacturers & Component Suppliers

Launch Services Providers

Systems Integrators

Service Providers

Legal Industry

Financial Community

VSAT Vendors

Antenna and Subsystems Manufacturers

End Users

Governments and Public Institutions

4

Our Clientele

NSR clients range from start-ups to market leaders in various sectors of the satellite and telecommunications industry.

Consulting projects have been completed in every region and in over 75 countries worldwide.

The common theme across our clientele is the requirement for unbiased, actionable analysis that provides each client with the intelligence it cannot find elsewhere.

5 December 2013GVF HTS Roundtable



NSR coined the acronym “HTS”

• HTS is now the industry standard

• NSR was first analyst firm to provide HTS

quantitative/qualitative analysis across all markets

First consulting group to publish research on

several emerging topics

• HTS Capacity Trends

• IPTV

• Hosted Payloads

• Mobile TV

• Wireless Backhaul via Satellite

• SCADA, M2M Markets

• And MANY more

5

NSR’s Thought Leadership

NSR was one of the early adopters of market coverage via regular Webinars and Bottom Line

analyst perspectives

NSR has been ahead of the curve since it’s inception…




About NSR





Why HTS?



5 December 2013

Keynote Agenda

6

GVF HTS Roundtable



2009

2010

2011

20122013


5 December 2013

7

GVF HTS Roundtable

= Ka spot beams



2009

2010

2011

20122013


5 December 2013

8

GVF HTS Roundtable

= Ka spot beams



NSR defines HTS as:

Any satellite or satellite payload that has at least twice (though usually many

times more) the throughput of a traditional FSS satellite for the same amount of

allocated frequency on orbit.

These satellites can use any frequency to provision a service and almost

exclusively make use of frequency reuse and multiple spot beams to increase

throughput and reduce the price per bit delivered.

HTS: Definition

5 December 2013

9

GVF HTS Roundtable



NSR defines MEO-HTS as:

A medium earth orbit (MEO), low latency satellite constellation.

These satellites can use any frequency to provision a service and make use of

frequency reuse and multiple spot beams to increase throughput and reduce

the price per bit delivered.

MEO-HTS: Definition

5 December 2013

10

GVF HTS Roundtable



NSR’s First HTS Demand Forecast in

GASSD 6:

Total HTS Demand:

– 2008 – 16.2 Gbps

– 2012 – 27.8 Gbps

– 2018 – 189.6 Gbps

Applications:

– BB Access, VSAT, Mobility, Gov/Mil, SNG,

DTH, Distribution

HTS: Demand Forecast Evolution

5 December 2013

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Gb

ps

Global HTS Bandwidth Demand by Application

Distribution DTH Contribution & OUTV Telephony & Carrier

Enterprise Data Broadband Access Commercial Mobility Gov/Mil

NSR’s Latest HTS Demand Forecast

in GASSD 10:

Total HTS Demand:

– 2012 – 62.6 Gbps

– 2018 – 451.5 Gbps

– 2022 – 918.2 Gbps

Applications:

– BB Access, Backhaul, VSAT, Trunking,

Mobility, Gov/Mil, SNG, DTH, Distribution

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Gbp

s

Global Baseline HTS Bandwidth Demand by Application

Other Services Narrowband VSAT

Broadband Telephony & Carrier

Video Contribution & OUTV DTH

Video Distribution

11

GVF HTS Roundtable



About NSR





Why HTS?



5 December 2013

Keynote Agenda

12

GVF HTS Roundtable



Main HTS - Launched

5 December 2013

13

GVF HTS Roundtable

Operator Satellite Launch Year Orbital SpotHTS Capacity,

Gbps (Est)

Eutelsat Eutelsat KA-SAT 9A 2010 9E 90.0

Arabsat Arabsat-5C 2011 20E ~8-10

Avanti Hylas-2 2012 31E ~15.0

YahSat Yahsat-1B 2012 47.5E ~20.0

Thaicom Thaicom-4 (IPSTAR-1) 2006 119.5E ~45.0

Ciel Satellite Ciel-2 2008 129W ~5.0

Telesat Anik-F2,-F3 2004, 2007 111.1W, 118.8W ~5-7

ViaSat ViaSat-1 2011 115.1W 140.0

ViaSat Wildblue-1 2006 111W 10.0

EchoStar/Hughes EchoStar-XVII (Jupiter-1) 2012 107W ~100.0

EchoStar/Hughes Spaceway-3 2007 95W 10.0

Intelsat Galaxy-28 2005 89W ~2.0

SES* AMC-15, AMC-16 2004 105W,85W ~2

Hispasat Amazonas-3 2013 61W ~10-15

Avanti Hyals-1 2010 33.5W ~2-5

Note: HTS payload on AMC-16 not believed to be operational due to power issues.

Also, the list excludes dedicated, non-commercialized HTS payloads used by DIRECTV and Dish Network for DTH services.



Main HTS - Announced

5 December 2013

14

GVF HTS Roundtable

Operator Satellite Launch Year Orbital SpotHTS Capacity,

Gbps (Est)

SES* Astra-2E, -2F, -2G, -5B 2012-2014 28.2E & 31.5E ~7.0

Inmarsat Inmarsat-5F1, -5F2,-5F3 2013-2016 Not disclosed ~40.0

Arabsat Badr-7 2014 26E ~15.0

Eutelsat Eutelsat 3B 2014 3E ~5.0

RSCC Express-AM5,-AM6 2014-2015 140E, 53E ~5-10

Telenor Thor-7 2014 0.8W ~10.0

Hispasat Amazonas-4B 2015 61W ~10-15

Spacecom Amos-6 2015 4W ~20.0

Avanti Hylas 3/ERDS 2015 21.5E ~7-10

NewSat Jabiru-1 2015 91.5E ~8.0

Telesat Telesat-12 Vantage 2015 15W ~10-20

Intelsat Intelsat-29e, 33e 2015-2016 50W, 60E 50-60

NBN Co. NBN-1a, -1b 2015-2016 Not disclosed ~150-170

Eutelsat Eutelsat-65W A 2016 65W ~10-20

Star One Star One-D1 2016 84W ~20-30

Telebras SGDC-1 2016 75W ~55.0

EchoStar/Hughes EchoStar-XIX (Jupiter-2) 2016 Not disclosed ~150.0

ViaSat ViaSat-2 2016 Not disclosed ~250.0

Intelsat 3 additional EPIC 2017-2019 Not disclosed 75-90

Note: Astra-2E and -2F have already launched but treating as part of an overall “HTS System”



Main Demand Trends

Total HTS/MEO-HTS demand could

reach 1 Tbps by 2022

Broadband access drives capacity

demand but lower revenues

Revenue potential of other

segments to equal/exceed access

15

HTS & MEO-HTS Forecast Trends

Main Supply Trends

Supply to exceed 2.3 Tbps

Supply growth need to stay well

ahead of demand to provide

“headroom” for demand growth

Demand does exists to fill supply

though different regions will see

market play out differently

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Gb

ps

Global HTS & MEO-HTS Bandwidth Demand by Application



0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Gb

ps

Global HTS & MEO-HTS Bandwidth Supply and Demand

Total Supply HTS/MEO-HTS Demand




Main Revenue Trends

Total wholesale HTS/MEO-HTS

revenues to exceed US$3.3 billion

by 2022

There will be capacity pricing

significant differentiation by

application.

As such HTS/MEO-HTS revenues

are more evenly attributed than

leased bandwidth demand.

16

HTS & MEO-HTS Forecast Trends


$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

$5.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

US

$ B

illio

ns

Global Revenues for Leased HTS & MEO-HTS Bandwidth by Application



Video Dist.0.4%

DTH1.1%

Cont. & OUTV0.1%

Enterprise Data16.5%

Broadband Access71.7%

Commercial Mobility

5.0%

Gov/Mil5.2%

HTS & MEO-HTS Leased Bandwidth Demand Share by Application, 2022

Video Dist.1.1%

DTH2.0%

Cont. & OUTV0.4%

Enterprise Data33.6%

Broadband Access23.6%

Commercial Mobility22.3%

Gov/Mil17.0%

HTS & MEO-HTS Revenue Share by Application, 2022



About NSR





Why HTS?



5 December 2013

Keynote Agenda

17

GVF HTS Roundtable



Why HTS?

5 December 2013

18

GVF HTS Roundtable

HTS Demand

VSAT Networking

Satellite Broadband

Access

Wireless Backhaul

Mobility

DTH & Video Dist.

SNG

Trunking


www.nsr.com © 2013 – NSR 19

HTS/MEO-HTS Boogiemen!

Too much HTS/MEO-HTS supply?

Will cannibalize C/Ku!

Drive down transponder prices!

Too many payloads and too high risk for failures!




Industry Bifurcation

Media

Linear TV

OTT/TV Everywhere

Broadband Access

Mission Critical

Network Control

IP Data

Backhaul

C/Ku-Band

Co

ns

um

er

Pro

fes

sio

na

l

Point-to-Multipoint Point-to-Point




Industry Bifurcation

Media

Linear TV

OTT/TV Everywhere

Broadband Access

Mission Critical

Network Control

IP Data

Backhaul

C/Ku-Band

HTS

MEO-HTS

Co

ns

um

er

Pro

fes

sio

na

l

Point-to-Multipoint Point-to-Point




About NSR





Why HTS?



5 December 2013

Keynote Agenda

22

GVF HTS Roundtable



What Next for HTS?

5 December 2013

23

GVF HTS Roundtable

Technologies that NSR is following for next

generation of HTS

Flat Panel Antennas

Ground Based

Beam Forming

Digital Channelizers



What Next for HTS?

5 December 2013

24

GVF HTS Roundtable


Which HTS Model for Which Market/Application?

Source: Newtec

AT LEAST 3 Models

for Provisioning HTS

Service

1. Retail Service

Resold Through

CLOSED System

2. Mbps Resold

Through CLOSED

System

3. OPEN System

With Complete

Flexibility

Fle

xib

ility


More Reading on HTS…

5 December 2013

25

GVF HTS Roundtable


www.nsr.com


U.S. Office

Northern Sky Research, LLC (NSR)

1000 N. West St., Suite 1200

Wilmington, DE 19801

Phone: 302-295-4981

Fax:302-295-4801

NSRGlobal in Reach. Local in Knowledge. Bottom Line Analysis.

Europe Office

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19 Bolsover Street

London W1W 5NA

United Kingdom

Phone: 44 (0) 207 886 0875

www.nsr.com

http://www.nsr.com/

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