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www.nsr.com © 2014 – NSR
February 12, 2014
Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
NSR Webinar
Christopher Baugh, President
Stephane Gounari, Senior Analyst
www.nsr.com © 2014 – NSR
February 2014Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
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NSR Webinar- Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
Webinar Agenda
One of the contact card designs from the previous
slide
One of the contact card designs from the previous
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IntroAbout NSR & “Satellite Manufacturing & Launch Services” Report
1 Trends in Satellite Manufacturing Supply
2 Trends in Launch Services Supply
3Trends in Satellite Manufacturing & Launch Services Demand
4 Quantitative Findings
5 Bottom Line
Christopher Baugh
President
NSR London
Stéphane Gounari
Senior Analyst
NSR Dublin
www.nsr.com © 2014 – NSR
About NSR
NSR is a Global Leader in Satellite Market Research and Consulting
Founded in 2000, NSR specializes in analysis of growth
opportunities across the satellite industry
NSR’s expert consultants are located globally and possess over 140 years of combined
industry experience.
Multi-Client Reports on Various Satellite Topics
Extensive Client Research, Consulting and Advisory Services
“Holistic” approach to research enables NSR to anticipate trends with a higher degree of confidence and precision than the competition and stay ahead of the curve.
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February 2014
www.nsr.com
NSR Webinar- Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
www.nsr.com © 2014 - NSR
www.nsr.com © 2014 – NSR
Types of clients NSR serves include:
� Satellite Operators
� Satellite Manufacturers & Component Suppliers
� Launch Services Providers
� Systems Integrators
� Service Providers
� Legal Industry
� Financial Community
� VSAT Vendors
� Antenna and Subsystems Manufacturers
� End Users
� Governments and Public Institutions
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NSR’s Clientele
NSR clients range from start-ups to market leaders in various sectors of the satellite and telecommunications industry.
Consulting projects have been completed in every region and in over 75 countries worldwide.
The common theme across our clientele is the requirement for unbiased, actionable analysis that provides each client with the intelligence it cannot find elsewhere.
February 2014Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
NSR Webinar- Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
www.nsr.com © 2014 - NSR
www.nsr.com © 2014 – NSR
NSR Complete Coverage of the Satellite Market
February 2014
5
FSS
MSS
Government& Military Satcom
Financial Due Diligence-
ALL SECTORS
DTH and Video
Wireless Backhaul
Sat. Manufacturing & Launching
Earth Observation
M2M and SCADA
VSAT and Broadband
Energy Markets
Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
NSR Webinar- Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
www.nsr.com © 2014 – NSR
NSR reports deliver clarity - Critical market insight giving Market Leaders the edge over the competition..
� A Complete PowerPoint report document containing all quantitative and qualitative analysis
� An Excel file containing all data and graphs so the client can easily use this work as a basis for their own internal market projections
� Four (4) hours of consulting time with the NSR analyst who authored the report to review report findings and interpret market forecasts
About NSR & Satellite Manufacturing & Launch Services Coverage
NSR’s Satellite Manufacturing & Launch Services, 4th Edition
February 2014Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
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VerticalsSatellite Manufacturing
ForecastsLaunch Services Forecasts
Hosted Payloads Forecasts
1. Commercial GEO Communications2. Government & Military GEO Communications3. Non-GEO Communications4. GEO Earth Observation (EO)5. Government & Military Non-GEO EO6. Commercial Non-GEO EO7. Navigation8. Science & Technology Development9. SIGINT & Early Warning
1. Satellite Orders (by region)
2. Mass Distribution of Unit Orders (by mass category)
3. Total Mass of Unit Orders (by region)
4. Market Size (Total, Open, Captive – by region)
1. Satellite Launches (by region)
2. Mass Distribution of Units Launches (by mass category)
3. Total Mass of Unit Launches (by region)
4. Market Size (Total, Open, Captive – by region)
1. Unit Orders
2. Payload Masses
3. Manufacturing Revenues
4. “Hosting” Revenues
1. GEO Launch Services2. Non-GEO Launch Services
N/A Same as above N/A
1. Commercial GEO Communications (specific forecasts)
1. Payload Power Distribution of Units Orders (by power category)
2. Propulsion Type of Units Orders (by propulsion type)
3. Beam Type of Units Orders (by beam type)
1. Type of Customer (Government & Military, Commercial)
2. Orbit (GEO, Non-GEO)3. Application (Communications, Earth
Observation, Others)4. Regions (NAM, WEU, CEEU, Asia, RoW)
1. Satellite Orders (by region)
2. Mass Distribution of Unit Orders (by mass category)
3. Total Mass of Unit Orders (by region)
4. Market Size (Total, Open, Captive – by region)
1. Satellite Launches (by region)
2. Mass Distribution of Units Launches (by mass category)
3. Total Mass of Unit Launches (by region)
4. Market Size (Total, Open, Captive – by region)
1. Unit Orders
2. Payload Masses
3. Manufacturing Revenues
4. “Hosting” Revenues
NSR’s Satellite Manufacturing & Launch Services, 4th Edition Report Breakdown
New in this Edition� Hosted Payloads Forecasts
– Unit Orders– Payload Masses– Manufacturing Revenues– “Hosting” Revenue
20+ Company Profiles� Detailed presentation and recent
activity� Revenues� Market Share (Commercial
Segments)� Portfolio Description; current and
future platforms (GEO & Non-GEO) and Launch Vehicles
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Global Market: 2013 & Beyond
Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
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Global Market: 2013 & Beyond
Satellite Orders: Commercial Up, Government & Military Down
February 2014Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
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Estimated value of
$16.7 billion
Satellite Orders 2012 2013
Commercial GEO Communications 19 23
Government & Military GEO Communications
6 4
Non-GEO Communications 9 1
GEO Earth Observation 5 3
Government & Military Non-GEO EarthObservation
21 21
Commercial Non-GEO Earth Observation 6 5
Navigation 22 13
Science & Technology Development 11 11
SIGINT 4 4
Total 103 85
� Stable or lower amount of orders in most non-commercial segments
– Due to program needs and budget cuts
� Commercial GEO Communications experienced considerable growth
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Global Market: 2013 & Beyond
Satellite Orders: GEO vs Non-GEO
February 2014Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
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Satellite Orders� GEO
– ≈30 satellites ordered every year over the next decade
– Commercial GEO Communications accounts for most of the demand
� Non-GEO
– Non-GEO Communications and Navigation verticals extremely cyclical
– ≈70 satellites ordered every year over the next decade
– Most satellites ordered for Earth Observation, Science & Technology and Navigation
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Global Market: 2013 & Beyond
Satellite Manufacturing Market Size: Unit Mass vs. Specific Cost
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GEO Manufacturing Market� ≈$7.3 billion per year on average
GEOHigh Unit Mass
+ Low Specific
Cost
Non-GEOLow Unit Mass
+ Very High
Specific Cost
Non-GEO Manufacturing Market� ≈$9.1 billion per year on average
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Global Market: 2013 & Beyond
Satellite Manufacturing Market: GEO Open, Non-GEO Captive
February 2014Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
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Satellite Manufacturing Markets - Open vs. Closed to Competition
� GEO Segment
– Market openness ≈ 50% (10 year average)– Driven by commercial GEO Communications segment.
� Non-GEO Segment
– Market openness <15% (10 year average)– Earth Observation satellite manufacturing market most open
Global Market
Openness
28%
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Global Market: 2013 & Beyond
Satellite Launches: Quiet in GEO, Busy in Non-GEO
February 2014Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
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Satellite Launches 2012 2013
Commercial GEO Communications 26 17
Government & Military GEO Communications
8 7
Non-GEO Communications 6 19
GEO Earth Observation 3 2
Government & Military Non-GEO EarthObservation
15 21
Commercial Non-GEO Earth Observation 3 2
Navigation 9 6
Science & Technology Development 11 23
SIGINT 6 3
Total 87 100
Estimated value of $6.8
billion
� Higher number of satellites launched overall; segments show considerable variation
– GEO satellite launches down to 27 from 40 in 2012
– Non-GEO satellite launches up to 73 from 47 in 2012
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Global Market: 2013 & Beyond
Satellite Launches: GEO vs. Non-GEO
February 2014Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
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Satellite Launches� GEO
– ≈32 satellites every year over the next decade
– Commercial GEO Communications accounts for most of the demand
� Non-GEO
– Peak in 2016 due to Non-GEO Communications and Navigation verticals
– ≈79 satellites every year over the next decade
– Most satellites launched for Earth Observation, Science & Technology and Navigation
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Global Market: 2013 & Beyond
Launch Services Market Size: Launch Costs Declining
February 2014Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
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GEO Launch Services� ≈$3.2 billion per year on average
GEOMore Players
+Better Rockets
+Stable Demand
Non-GEOMore Players
+Better Rockets
+Evolving Demand
Non-GEO Launch Services� ≈$3.3 billion per year on average
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Global Market: 2013 & Beyond
Launch Services Market Openness: Barely Evolving
February 2014Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
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Launch Services Markets – Open vs. Closed� GEO Segment
– Market openness >55% (10-year average)– Due to commercial GEO Communications segment
� Non-GEO Segment
– Market openness <7% (10-year average)
– Low rate as most of the demand is captive, made worse as captive launch costs are higher
Global Market
Openness
31%
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Focus - Commercial GEO CommunicationsSatellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
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Focus - Commercial GEO Communications
23 Commercial GEO Communications Satellites were Ordered in 2013
February 2014Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
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Commercial GEO Communications Satellites Ordered in 2013
Airbus Defence & Space (4)
Badr 7 (Arabsat 6B)Sky Brazil
Express AMU1/Eutelsat 36CTelstar 12R (Vantage)
Boeing Satellites & Space (6)
Inmarsat 5F4Intelsat 33e + Intelsat EPIC(x3)
ViaSat -2
China Great Wall Industry Corporation
(2)
Apstar 9Nicasat-1
ISS Reshetnev (1) AOneSat-1
Orbital Sciences Corporation (3)
DirecTV (x2)Thaicom 8
Space Systems/Loral (6)
Asiasat 9EchoStar XIX (Jupiter-2)
Eutelsat 65 West AIntelsat 34JCSat 14
Star One D1
Thales Alenia Space (1) SGDC 1
2011 2012 2013
# Commercial GEO Communications Satellites
Ordered 18 19 23
Trends� 21% growth between 2012 and 2013 in
terms of unit, but….
– Several projects expected to be procured in 2012 were delayed
� 2013’s good performance was due to a correction effect
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2013: The Supplier Side� Two manufacturers were awarded 6
satellites each
– A very good year for Boeing
� 2013’s demand was fully captured by the 7 manufacturers with the highest market share since 2009
Focus - Commercial GEO Communications
Commercial GEO Communications: Increasing Number of Players
February 2014Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
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2013 # Manufacturers # Satellites
6 satellites ordered 2 12
3-4 satellites ordered 2 7
1-2 satellites ordered 3 4
Total 7 23
Satellite Orders – Manufacturers’ Concentration
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2013 - The Customer Side� 17 satellite operators ordered 24 satellites
– “Concentrated” demand
� A high number of satellites procured to a satellite manufacturer located in a different region than the satellite operator
– 2013 was a very competitive year!
Focus - Commercial GEO Communications
Commercial GEO Communications: A Competitive Year
February 2014Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
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2013 # SatOps # Satellites
5 satellites ordered 1 5
3 satellites ordered 1 3
1 satellite ordered 15 15
Total 17 23
Region 2013 2009-12
NAM 18% 6%
WEU 100% 52%
CEEU 100% 31%
Asia 75% 76%
LAM 100% 88%
MEA 100% 88%
Global 57% 52%
Satellite Orders – Clients’ Concentration
Satellite Orders – Procurement Outside of the Satellite Operator’s Region
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Focus - Commercial GEO Communications
Commercial GEO Communications: Mass Shift
February 2014Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
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# Commercial GEO Communications Satellites
Ordered2011 2012 2013
Below 3,300 kg 3 6 43,300 - 5,000 kg 7 1 25,000 - 6,200 kg 7 10 13Over 6,200 kg 1 2 4
Total 18 19 23
Trends� Shift in mass happening: Extreme mass categories are growing
– <3,300 kg: “Up” trend is pretty recent; follows a long “Down” trend
– 3,300 to 5,000 kg: Continuation of past trend
– 5,000 to 6,200 kg: Stabilization
– 6,200kg+: Recent category, steadily growing
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Latest Contracts� March 2012: Boeing signed a 4-satellite contract (2 firm and 2 options confirmed in 2013)
with ABS and SatMex. The 4 satellites are to be launched (two at a time) on a Falcon-9
� ……..
� Lots of talks, lots of plans, not many contracts…
Focus - Commercial GEO Communications
Commercial GEO Communications: Electric Propulsion Not So Successful?
February 2014Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
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NSR’s Take on EP Issues� Reliability concerns on EP Engines: To
soften in the next years
� Reliability concerns due to radiation belts: Known issue with mitigating techniques
� Lack of Reactiveness: Not going away
� Long Orbit Raising Time: Not going away
– Added Costs
– Opportunity Cost
www.nsr.com © 2014 – NSR
Focus - Commercial GEO Communications
Commercial GEO Communications: Will Falcon Heavy Kill Electric Propulsion?
February 2014Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
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NSR’s Take on EP Usage� EP has a better specific impulse, thus requires less fuel and saves mass
� Lower mass can be used to lower costs
– Providing access to Falcon 9 (even lower costs)
� Lower mass can also be used to maximize capabilities
– A 6.2 ton satellite that can do what a much heavier satellite would be capable of (thus bypassing the current 6.2 tons to GTO limit)
But…� Both are dependent on the current Launch
Services supply environment
� Added costs and complexity due to EP are compared:
– Launch Prices
– Launch Capabilities
� Changes in price and capabilities will affect EP value proposition
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Focus - Commercial Non-GEO Earth ObservationSatellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
www.nsr.com © 2014 – NSR
Trends� Small market in term of units
� Satellite manufacturing demand low but constant, fed by a steadily growing demand of imagery from an increasing set of applications and end-users
– Demand from historical end-users (Defense & Intelligence and Civilian Government) growing at a lower rate than in the past
– Demand from commercial verticals is accelerating
– Oil & Gas and Mining industry
– Services industry (Notably Location-based Service Providers)
Focus - Commercial Non-GEO Earth Observation
Commercial Non-GEO Earth Observation: Demand Low but Steady
February 2014Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
# Commercial EO Non-GEO
Satellites Ordered 4 4 5 6 5
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Trends� Commoditization trend has a clear
impact on average mass…
� … but it does not disqualify cutting-edge satellites
� Two types of satellites for Commercial EO
Focus - Commercial Non-GEO Earth Observation
Commercial Non-GEO Earth Observation: Smaller Satellites
February 2014Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
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Mass Range Launch Years
SPOT 4&5 2.7 – 3 tons 1998-2002
SPOT 6&7 720 kg 2012-2014
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Trends� Two types of satellites for Commercial EO
1. Cutting-Edge Satellites: Still relevant – A very high CAPEX but powerful and unique capabilities
2. Commoditized Satellites: Catching up with yesterday’s cutting-edge
� Commoditized satellites are cheaper, but not necessarily the most cost-efficient…
– … but they reduce the barrier to entry for constellations
Focus - Commercial Non-GEO Earth Observation
Commercial Non-GEO Earth Observation: Omniscient or Omnipotent
February 2014Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
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MassDesign
LifeResolution
SpectralBands
Annual Imaging Capabilities
Project Cost
WorldView-3 3 tons 8 years 30cm 20+ 250 million km² $650 million
DMC 3G350 kg (each)
7 years 1m 4 365 million km² $170 million
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Focus – Commercial GEO Launch ServicesSatellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
www.nsr.com © 2014 – NSR
Situation in 2013� 2013 was a quiet year; several issues:
– Satellite delivery delays
– Failure-induced delays
Focus – Commercial GEO Launch Services
17 Commercial GEO Communications Satellites were Launched in 2013
February 2014Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
# Commercial GEO Satellites
Launched22 20 23 26 17
Commercial GEO Communications Satellites Launched in 2013
Arianespace (4)
Alphasat I-XLAmazonas 3
Azerspace-1 / Africasat-1aEutelsat 25B/ Es'hail
China Great Wall Industry Corporation (2)
TKSat-1ChinaSat 11
ILS/Khrunichev(8)
Anik G1Astra 2E
Eutelsat 3DExpress AM5Inmarsat 5F1
SatMex 8SES-6
Sirius FM-6
Land Launch (1) Amos 4
Sea Launch (1) Intelsat 27
SpaceX (1) SES 8
www.nsr.com © 2014 – NSR
Focus – Commercial GEO Launch Services
Commercial GEO Launch Services: A Moving Picture
February 2014Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
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Trends� 2009-2013: Concentrated supply
– Two biggest players represent close to 80% of the market; each around 40%
– Two next biggest players represent close to 20% of the market, each around 10%
� 2014+
– Two biggest players represent 67% of the market; one at 39%, the other at 28%
– Two next biggest players represent 25% of the market, each around 12%
� The situation is rapidly changing in the Commercial GEO Launch Services segment
www.nsr.com © 2014 – NSR
Focus – Commercial GEO Launch Services
Commercial GEO Launch Services: Toward More Capable Rockets
February 2014Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
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Rocket Name Capacity (kg) Reference GTO
Falcon-Heavy 12,000 185 x 35,786 km; i:28.5°
Ariane 5 ME 11,500Assumed similar to
Ariane 5
Ariane 5 9,600 250 x 35,943 km; i: 6°Angara-A5
w/KVTK7,500
5,500 x 35,786 km; i: 25°
Ariane 6 6,500Assumed similar to
Ariane 5
Proton Breeze-M (Phase IV)
6,3504,120 x 35,786 km; i:
23.2°
Zenit-3SL 6,160 200 x 35,786 km; i: 0°
Falcon-9 v1.1 3,700 185 x 35,786 km; i: 6°
Rocket Name Capacity (kg) Reference GTO
LM-5 14,000Assumed similar to LM-
3B/E
H-IIB (304) 8,000 Assumed similar to H-IIA
Atlas-V (551) 6,860 4,824x35,786 km; i: 24.2
H-IIA (204) 5,800 250x36,156 km; i: 28.5°
LM-3B/E 5,500 200x35,958; i: 28.5°
Source: NSR
Source: NSR
Source: NSR
www.nsr.com © 2014 – NSR
The Shape of Things to Come?� Within a decade, up to four Launch Vehicles could be introduced by 3 of the 4 current biggest actors
� Within a few years, a Launch Vehicle with bigger GTO capabilities than Ariane-5 will enter the market
– Upper limit on mass (≈6.2t) will be lifted
– Usage of Electric Propulsion to “Push the Envelop” will become irrelevant
– Usage of Electric Propulsion to fit in a Falcon 9 for price reason will become irrelevant
� Pressure on mass due to launch costs should be softened
� How many commercial Launch Services Providers can the GEO segment sustain?
Focus – Commercial GEO Launch Services
Commercial GEO Launch Services: Toward More Capable Rockets
February 2014Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
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Rocket Name Capacity (kg) Reference GTO
Falcon-Heavy 12,000 185 x 35,786 km; i:28.5°
Ariane 5 ME 11,500Assumed similar to
Ariane 5
Ariane 5 9,600 250 x 35,943 km; i: 6°Angara-A5
w/KVTK7,500
5,500 x 35,786 km; i: 25°
Ariane 6 6,500Assumed similar to
Ariane 5
Proton Breeze-M (Phase IV)
6,3504,120 x 35,786 km; i:
23.2°
Zenit-3SL 6,160 200 x 35,786 km; i: 0°
Falcon-9 v1.1 3,700 185 x 35,786 km; i: 6°
Source: NSRSource: NSR
www.nsr.com © 2014 – NSR
Bottom Line
Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
www.nsr.com © 2014 – NSR
Satellite Demand� Demand for Satellite Manufacturing and Launch Services
to remain stable
Satellite Manufacturing� Specific Cost : Decrease in every Commercial vertical
� New and/or increasingly efficient Satellite Technologies
– Commercial GEO Communications: Mass and power shift towards extremes (EP, High Power…)
– Commercial EO: Commoditization is a reality, cutting-edge satellites remain relevant
Launch Services� Competitive Landscape: market share moving
– New and bigger rockets (on average) to become available in the next decade
– Launch costs to decrease sensibly all-round
Bottom Line
The Space Industry is Changing
February 2014Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
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Satellite Demand Stable
Satellite Supply Improving
Value Proposition Improving
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Red Queen Effect or New Era?� In most markets, satellite-based solutions
compete with alternative (terrestrial) solutions, likely also improving their value-proposition
– Satellite’s improvements potentially allowing only to maintain it’s current market share (Red Queen Effect)
– …or will allow satellite to take an advantage in existing markets…
– ….and to propose new applications & new services…
– …requiring additional satellite manufacturing and launch services ?!?!
Bottom Line
Improving Value-Proposition
February 2014Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
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Satellite Demand
Satellite Supply
Satellite Value
Proposition
Satellite Manufacturing and Launch Services are changing radically; the extent of satellite services’ success will determine
if this is a continuation or a new era
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Questions?
Stéphane GounariSenior Analyst, NSR Dublin
www.nsr.com
Europe Office
Northern Sky Research, Ltd (NSR)19 Bolsover StreetLondon W1W 5NA
United KingdomPhone: 44 (0) 207 886 0875
U.S. Office
Northern Sky Research, LLC (NSR)1000 N. West St., Suite 1200Wilmington, DE 19801
United StatesPhone: 302-295-4981
Christopher BaughPresident, NSR London
www.nsr.com © 2014 – NSR
Key Findings:
� PowerPoint Slides and Session Recording Available on NSR Website within 24 Hours
– NSR Homepage > News & Resources > Webinar & Presentation Archive
� Contacts for Further Questions
Christopher Baugh, [email protected]
Stéphane Gounari, [email protected]
Thank you for attending!
February 2014Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
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Wrap-Up
NSR Webinar- Satellite Manufacturing and Launching: The Dawn of a New Era
Report COMING SOON!
Visit www.nsr.com forreport executive summary
and more info
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Northern Sky Research, LLC (NSR)
1000 N. West St., Suite 1200
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Europe Office
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