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Fast-Forward to 2025: New Mega Trends Transforming the World as We Know It

Macro to Micro Opportunities on Future Business, Cultures and Personal Lives

1. Introduction and Definition of Mega Trends

2. Key Insights into the Global Mega Trends

3. Conclusions

4. The Macro to Micro Approach

3

Agenda

What is a Mega Trend?

What is a Mega Trend?

Mega trends are transformative, global forces that define the

future world with their far reaching impact on business, societies,

economies, cultures and personal lives.

Urbanization – City as a Customer

Smart is the New Green

Social Trends

Connectivity and Convergence

Bricks and Clicks

Innovating to Zero

New Business Models: Value for Many

Beyond BRIC: The Next Game Changers

Future Infrastructure Development

Health, Wellness and Well Being

Future of Mobility

4

Top Mega Trends Covered By The Visionary Innovation Research Division

Future of Energy

5

Mega Trends Universe We Track*

*This list is not exhaustive

6

News Headlines in 2025

Robots have entered our homes for personal use.

Sensory devices guide our everyday lives.

Mobile financial transactions are now in crypto-currencies.

Big data has entered the Zettabyte era.

3D printing is commonplace. 4D printing is gaining

mainstream acceptance .

High Speed Rail to connect from China to Europe.

There are 6 million autonomous cars in Europe

and North America.

Summer Sale: Low-cost holidays in space.

Connectivity & Convergence

Digital Currency: $11

billion worth of Bitcoins in circulation currently

Connected Living:

$730 Billion Market Opportunity in 2020

Personal Robots: Robots

priced between $1,566 and $4,699 could enter our personal

lives

3D/4D Printing:

$7.3 Billion Market Opportunity by 2020

Augmented Reality/Virtual World:

New Markets of Augmented Shopping and Virtual Commerce

Space Jam: 1,213 Total

Number of satellites globally by 2021

4D Printing: Self-

assembling objects could enter our lives by 2050

Nanobots: Swarms of

Nanobots could enter manufacturing and energy by

2030

Sensorization of Devices: From Touchscreen

to Brain-controlled devices

Wearable Devices:

Over $11 billion market estimated for 2020

Big Data:

40% annual growth in big data to 2020

80 Billion Connected

Devices in 2020 and $14.7Tr

internet economy

Powered Exoskeletons : Self-

assembling objects could enter our lives by 2050

9 9

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Connected Home – 31% Connected Work –15% Connected City – 54%

• Home Automation

• Home Energy

• Home Health

• Home Entertainment

• Mobility - Mobile

email, Unified

Communication

• Mobile Working

• Enterprise Social

Networking

• eGovernance

• eCitizens

• Personal and Freight

Mobility

• E-learning

• Mobile banking

Sub Trend: Future Connected Living Ecosystem Connected life contains three important aspects of connected home, connected city,

and connected work

Connected Living Total Market: $730 Billion in 2020

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QIVICON B2B Business Hub including partners from…

Health (E.g

Tunstall)

Multimedia (E.g

Samsung)

Automation (E.g Belkin)

Security (E.g Pax)

Energy EnBW, Solon

Appliances, electronics (A&E)

Miele, Samsung

QIVICON CONNECTED HOME PLATFORM for consumers aggregating service from all partners.

Consumer Homes

B2B

B2B2C

Case Study: Connected Home’s B2B Platform Of Deutsche Telekom

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Sub Trend: Sensorization of Things Multi-Factor sensory-based trackers revolutionise the field of human interaction and

personal identification

2000s 2014 2015 2020 2025+ 2025+ 2020 2015 2014 2000s

Eye

Facial

Voice Touch

Gesture

Gaze controlled

Games

Mobile Eye Scrolling phones

Eye Tracking Analytics in cars

Pay with Face

Face Scanners

Tactical Identification

System

Voice Search

(Google)

Speech Recognition

Personal Digital

Assistant

AMOLED Touch

Screens

Holographic Touchscreen

3D Air gesture control of

Mobile devices

Sensory Tracking Technology in

Consumers Devices

Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis

3D modelling on computers

Brain

Mind Controlled

Games

Mind Remotes for

TV

Mind Controlled

Cars

Gesture Gaming

Sub Trend: Big Data Analytics 90% of the data in the world has been created in the last two years alone

Source: IBM, Cisco, Frost & Sullivan Analysis 12

Global Data Traffic in Zettabytes, 2010-2025 Global Big Data Market in $ billion, 2010-2025

2010 2020 2025 2015

3.56

87.85

122.6

47.37

2010 2020 2025 2015

1.2

34.1

100.2

7.6

Global Data Traffic to Cross 100 Zettabytes

annually by 2025

Global Big Data Market to generate a revenue of over $122 billion by

2025

Reality to Virtual World

Reality Augmented Reality Augmented Virtuality Virtual World

Virtual Repair and Maintenance

Virtual Designing

13

Sub Trend : Augmented Reality and Virtual World

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Implication: Connectivity Is Pushing Convergence Connectivity will Accelerate Convergence of Industries, Products, Technologies and

Competition

INDUSTRIES

PRODUCTS

Car Unmanned Technology Autonomous Cars

TECHNOLOGIES

Building Technologies Smart Automation Smart Home Hubs

Space Industry Solar Industry Space Based Solar Power

1

3

2

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis Image Source:: ̀ Creative Commons and Dreamstime.

Bricks and Clicks

15

Future of Clicks in Retail Industry Global Online Retail Sales To Reach $4.3 Trillion By 2025 Accounting

for 19% of Total Retail

$11.8 Trillion

$23 Trillion

$18.7 Trillion

$11.25 Trillion

$4.3 Trillion

$0.55 Trillion

Online Sales Non-Online Sales

5%

95%

19%

81%

16

2011 2025

United States $1.32

Trillion

24%

18%

China $1.30

Trillion

United Kingdom $0.21

Trillion

Germany $0.09

Trillion

Japan $0.17

Trillion

26%

15%

10%

UK Retail – Online Vs. Non Online Online Retail Sales to Account for nearly 1/3rd of Total Retail

Sales by 2025

17

Source: Office for National Statistics, IMRG, and Frost & Sullivan Analysis

• Social commerce has an estimated $1 billion market value in the UK

• Mobile now accounts for 51% of the total retail time spent by consumers on digital modes

• 9 of top ten retailers in the UK offer either click n collect / in-store pick up options to customers

• 35% of sales on JohnLewis.com take click and collect service

£323.5 Billion

£460 Billion

£38.8 Billion

£284.7 Billion

12.5% online

87.5% Offline

£122 Billion

£338 Billion

27% online

73% Offline

2013 2020

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Fully Digital, Retail-Style Cyberstore

One-stop Experience for Entire Model Range

Gamification, Augmented Reality Offers Tailor-

made services

Specially Trained Dealer Personnel Interactivity

London Flagship Store

Highly personalized customer dialogue

Case Study: Audi City London - First Digital Car Showroom Example of Future Digital Car Showrooms that will be “Unlimited”, Personalised, Socially Connected

and Digitally Integrated

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Retail Strategy

Channel Strategy

Fulfillment Strategy

No direct retailing Direct retailing in selected regions; target enthusiasts and DIY segments

Sell through dealer estores

Own web store; dealer estores; marketplace (ex. BMW Direct on eBay)

Primarily click ‘n’ collect from existing dealerships

Likely to explore both click ‘n’ collect and direct delivery

C L I C K A N D P O S T

C L I C K A N D F I T ( d e a l e r s h i p / m o b i l e

C L I C K A N D C O L L E C T

Case Study: BMW’s Parts eRetailing Strategy

20

Urban Transhipment Areas

Urban Consolidation Centres

Urban Intermodal Hubs

Locker Boxes Microdistribution

Mobile Depots / Freight Buses

Sub Trend: Future of Consolidation and Last Mile Delivery More Bundling, Intermodality and Microdistribution in Urban

Areas

Types of Urban Distribution

Types of Urban Last-mile Deliveries

One Hour Deliveries Click ‘n’ Collect

Smart is the New Green

22

20.93

14.11

16.65 13.75

9.09

15.26

10.21

Smart Infrastructure3

CAGR: 8.9% (2012-2020)

Smart cities To Create Huge Business Opportunities With A Market Value Of $1.5 Trillion By 2020

1

2

4

5

6

Smart Governance and Smart Education2

CAGR: 12.4% (2012-2020)

Smart Energy CAGR: 19.6% (2012-2020)

Smart Transportation CAGR: 14.8% (2012-2020)

Smart Healthcare CAGR: 6.9% (2012-2020)

Smart Building CAGR: 8.8% (2012-2020)

7

Smart City Market by Segments,1 Global, 2020

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

Note: The graph represent the market share of each segment in the smart city market.

For more information on smart city market sectors please refer to appendix

Smart City Market

2Smart Education includes eLearning services for schools, universities, enterprises, and government entities

1These numbers represent the entire smart solutions eco-system in each segment for both urban and non-urban panoramas

Smart Security CAGR: 14% (2012-2020)

3

3Other Smart Infrastructure such as sensor networks, digital management of water utilities not included in other segments

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There Are Four Different Roles Smart Cities Players Can Take

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Pure-Play Product Vendors

Managed Service Providers

Network Service Providers

Integrators Smart city integrators are project integrators that bring together various sectors of the smart city through pre-packaged platforms thereby providing a unified , holistic and end-to-end integration of multiple sectors Example: IBM, Accenture

Smart city network providers offer collaborative networks, data analytics and enterprise working solutions that connect people, assets, systems and products by leveraging on their networking and M2M capabilities. Example: Cisco, Verizon, Ericsson, AT&T

1

2

3

4

Smart city product vendors provide “hard assets” like smart meters and distribution devices (e.g., automated switches, controllers for capacitor banks and voltage regulators) that operate as the main nodes of connectivity. Example: Eaton, Honeywell, ABB, Schneider Electric, Siemens

Smart city managed service providers offer round-the-clock monitoring, complete management, compliance monitoring, and on-site consulting. These services are provided either in-house, co-managed, or are completely outsourced (third party providers) Example: IBM, Serco, SAIC, Infosys

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Smart Cities Business Models Majority of smart city projects are developed under Build Operate Manage (BOM)

business model

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

Build Operate Manage

Build Operate Transfer

Build Own

Operate

Open Business

Model

Social Trends

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Heterogeneous Society

Divide by Income

Sub Trend: Heterogeneous Society The global population is getting more diverse with US and Canada being the most

heterogeneous societies

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Divide by Age

Divide by Gender Divide by Ethnicity

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Heterogeneous Society Case Study : New Generation’s Boomerang Effect

The son is back

Women Empowerment Demographic shifts are driving the empowerment of women

Female junior exec pay in

the UK is rising faster than male counterparts’

Earnings

There are 117 female directors of FTSE 100

companies

By 2020 over half of

millionaires in the UK will be female

Wealth Entrepreneurship

The number of women-owned businesses

increased by 59% in the US since 2000

Leadership 1 Education

Women are getting the

majority of higher education awards

Power

In Nordic countries

women could soon have equal political power

2 3

4 5 6

Women Dominate Social Media Women are the routers and amplifiers of the social web

127m active users

50% Female

90m active visitors

82% Female

So What?

Women are said to control

between 80% and 90% of key spending categories worldwide

Women are said to be more

likely than men to interact with and about brands online

Women in the UK are said to control

online purchasing (60%) and mobile purchasing (one in six

women compared to one in nine men)

845m active users

57% Female

150m active users

68% Female

Future Of Mobility

32 32

Future of Mobility

Micro-mobility

Integrated mobility

Global car sharing

Parking management Zero emission taxis New business models

Connected cars

Telematics based insurance

Autonomous Cars

Demand Response Management

Economic Trends

Sub Trend : The Next Game Changers in 2025 High GDP growth, improved FDIs, and rapid industrialization to give rise to a new lot of emerging

countries, beyond BRIC nations, that contend to become next decade’s economic leaders

$2,327 Billion

$1,041 Billion $2,441

Billion

$653 Billion

$772 Billion $323

Billion

$483 Billion

Mexico Egypt

Turkey

Poland

Indonesia

Thailand

Vietnam

Philippines Next Game Changers

Note : The figure denotes GDP at market prices. Forecasts to 2025 have been extrapolated based on Nominal GDP growth rate projections

Source: International Monetary Fund. Oxford Economics, Frost & Sullivan,

$3,071 Billion

$730 Billion

Nigeria

The trillion dollar economies

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Sub Trend : Future of Resources – Redrawing the Resource Map

Discovery of new technologies and energy sources has altered the global energy landscape making key resources such as water, food, and minerals more easily accessible

Signs of Shortage

Technologies/ New Discoveries

Future Availability of Resource

+30% demand by 2030 (IFPRI)

• Smart water • Wastewater

treatment • Water desalination

Water desalination could cover close to 5% of the estimated gap in supply of freshwater

+40% demand by 2030 (IEA)

• Smart grid • Energy Harvesting • Shale Gas

Shale gas to contribute 46% of the total US gas supply in 2035

+50% demand by 2030 (FAO)

• Genetically modified food (Golden rice)

• Synthetic meat • Smart farming

Golden rice could deliver 15-20% of the daily nutrition requirements by 2030

Water Energy Food

Source: FAO, IEA, IFPRI, WHO, and Frost & Sullivan Analysis

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Conclusion

Macro Micro

From Macro to Micro: Taking Mega Trends from Information to Strategy Implementation

Mega Trend Selected trends that impact your

business and markets

Sub Trend A sub-layer of trends that has a

wide ranging impact

Impact to Your Industry Visualising the roadmap of these critical forces through scenario-

building and macro economic forecasts

Impact on Future Product/ Technology

Analysis of Opportunities and Unmet Needs

To

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