decision making for all: leaders, followers, partners, loners, and more!
TRANSCRIPT
November 10, 2016
Decision Making for AllLeaders, Followers, Partners, Loners, and more!
Vincci KwongIndiana University South Bend
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
How do you make a decision?• For a recent purchase• For a project at work
November 10, 2016
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
Bad decision
November 10, 2016
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
Critical thinking and evaluation
November 10, 2016
ClearAccurate
Relevant / important
Sufficient
Purpose / Goal
Question / Issue
AssumptionsInformation /
Data / Evidence
Reasoning
Conclusions / Implications
Alternatives
Source: Variation on Gerald Nosich model
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
Potential biases on inputs• Perception• Memory• Numerical data
November 10, 2016
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
Perception
November 10, 2016
Factors contribute to different perception includes: self-concept, values, experience, beliefs, and culture.
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
Biases related to perception• Confirmation effect
November 10, 2016
• Expectation bias• Self-serving biases
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
Memory
November 10, 2016
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
Biases related to memory
• Subsequent information
November 10, 2016
• Moral evaluation
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
Numerical data
November 10, 2016
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
Issues related to numerical data• Response bias• Representativeness• Framing
Pseudo opinions Answer sets Response scales Social desirability Allowing vs. Forbidding
November 10, 2016
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
Ways to avoid biases• Be aware• Actively look for other perspectives• Find objective data
Perception specific:• Focus on questions that both agree with and challenge
our thinking• Try to take different point of views intentionally
Memory specific:• Keep notes
November 10, 2016
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
Heuristics
November 10, 2016
A mental shortcut:Solve problems and make judgements quickly and efficiently
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
Issues related to heuristics
November 10, 2016
• Availability• Representativeness• Anchoring
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
Availability heuristic
November 10, 2016
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
Representativeness heuristic• A cognitive bias in which an individual categorizes a
situation based on a pattern of previous experiences or beliefs about the scenario.
November 10, 2016
Women VegetarianWomen
&Vegetaria
n
Question: Polly went to the store and bought tofu, eggplant, broccoli, and frozen meatless lasagna. Is it more likely that Mary is a woman or a woman who is a vegetarian?
Gambler’s Fallacy
Conjunction Fallacy
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
Anchoring• Use an initial piece of information to
make subsequent judgments
November 10, 2016
How would you answer these two questions?
1. Is the population of Shanghai greater than 20 million?
2. What’s your best estimate of Shanghai’s population?
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
Avoiding heuristics pitfall• Recognize when you are using heuristic• Beware of biases associated with
representativeness
November 10, 2016
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
Informal fallacies• Defects found in the content of the
arguments. There are many ways arguments can be defective. Fallacies of Relevance Fallacies of ambiguity Fallacies of the complex question Fallacies of weak induction
November 10, 2016
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
Fallacies of relevance
November 10, 2016
Ad Hominem
• Straw man• Appeal to tradition• Argument from the club• Sunk cost fallacy• Appeal to pity
Argument from popularity
Appeal to authority
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
Fallacies of ambiguity
November 10, 2016
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
Interested in more fallacies?• http://www.iep.utm.edu/fallacy/• http://
utminers.utep.edu/omwilliamson/ENGL1311/fallacies.htm
November 10, 2016
2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference
Questions?• Please feel free to contact me
Vincci [email protected]
November 10, 2016