Presentation on Decision making

GROUP MEMBERS :NARAYAN KOIRALAAKRITI BUDDHATHOKIABHINASH MISHRASHILPA VAIDYAVIKRAM OLI

OBJECTIVEDecision Making and its

Importance Steps in Decision MakingTraditional Approach and

Conditions for DMTypes of Decision MakingDecision TreeTechniques used for

decision making

DECISION MAKINGDecision =A choice made between alternative courses of action in a situation of uncertainty.

Making= The process of applying the objectives in proper way.

Simply ,Decision Making “Is a course of action among the various alternatives.”

The thought process of selecting a logical choice from the available options.

Importance of Decision Making

Analyse the situation

Think and Reflect

Decide your answers

Now...Go Head

Step In Decision Making

Defining the Problem: The first step towards a decision-making procedure is to define the problem. Obviously, there would be no need to make a decision without having a problem. So, the first thing one has to do is to state the underlying problem that has to be solved. You have to clearly state the outcome that you desire after you have made the decision. This is a good way to start, because stating your goals would help you in clarifying your thoughts.

continued…..

Evaluate the Alternatives: This can be said to be one of the most important stages of the decision-making procedure. This is the stage where you have to analyze each alternative you have come up with. You have to find out the advantages and disadvantages of each option.

Develop Alternatives: The next step after defining the main problem would be to state out the alternatives available for that particular situation. Here, you do not have to restrict yourself to think about the very obvious options, rather you can use your creative skills and come out with alternatives that may look a little irrelevant. This is important because sometimes solutions can come out from these out-of-the-box ideas.

Continued….

Implement the Solution: The next obvious step after choosing an option would be implementing the solution. Just making the decision would not give the result one wants. Rather, you have to carry out on the decision you have made.

Make the Decision: This is the stage where the hard work you have put in analyzing would lead to a proper decision. The evaluation process would help you with clearly looking at the available options and you have to pick whichever you think is the most applicable. You can also club some of the alternatives to come out with a better solution instead of just picking out any one of them.

Traditional Approach•The managerial decisions must be rational.•Argued that managerial decisions maker is guided by economic considerations in choosing solution to the problem.

Assumptions•Decision maker intend to maximize economic gains.•Objective and rational.•Identify the problem clearly•Full information about various alternatives.•Complete freedom to choose the best alternatives.

Conditions for making decisions

Decision making under certainty Also called Programmed decision making. When a manager knows exactly which state of

nature will occur, a circumstances of certainty occur which means that the manager will be able to make perfectly accurate decisions.

Deterministic model is used , wherein all factors are assumed to be exact with chance playing no role.

Decision making under uncertainty

Also known as Nonprogrammed decision making.

When there are many unknowns and no possibility of knowing what could occur in the future alter the outcome of a decision.

Types of decision making

Routine and strategic Policy and operating Organizational and Personal Programmed and Non-programmed Individual and group decisions Irreversible and Reversible Experimental Trial and Error Made in strategic Cautious Conditional Delayed

• Decisions are made repetitively following certain established rules, procedures and policies.

• They neither require collection of new data nor conferring with people.

Routine and strategic

• Policy decisions-making is the making of policies and the decisions are made by the Top level managers.

• Operating decisions are taken by lower management in order to put into action the policy decisions.

Policy and operating

• It allows time for contingencies and problems that may crop of later at the time of implementation.

• It helps to limit the risks that are inherent to decision making, although this may also limit the final gains.

Programmed and Non-

programmed

• Decision taken by an individual in an organization is known as Individual Decision.

• Decisions taken by group of organizational members is known as Group Decision.

Individual and Group

• Decisions that once made cannot be unmade is Irreversible Decision.

• Decisions that can be changed completely before, during or after agreed decisions begins is Reversible Decision.

Irreversible and

Reversible

• Decisions is not final until the first results appear and prove themselves to be satisfactory.

• It requires positive feedback before one can decide on a course of action.

Experimental Decisions

• In this type of decisions, knowledge is derived out of past mistakes.

• A certain course of action is selected and is tried out, if the results are positive, the action is carried further, if the results appear negative, another course is adopted and so on and so forth a trial is made and an error is occurred.

Trial and Error

Decisions

• Decisions are made in steps until the whole action is completed.

• It allows close monitoring of risks as one accumulates the evidence of outcomes and obstacles at every stage.

Made in Stages

Decisions

• It allows time for contingencies and problems that may crop of later at the time of implementation.

• It helps to limit the risks that are inherent to decision making, although this may also limit the final gains.

Cautious Decisions

• Such type of decisions can be altered if certain foreseen circumstances arises.

• It prepares one to react if the competition makes a new move or if the game plan changes radically.

Conditional Decisions

• Decisions are put on hold till the decision makers feel that the time is right.

• Prevents one from making a decision at the wrong time or before all the facts is known.

Delayed

Decisions

Decision support tool.Options are laid and possible

outcome is investigated.Helps to form a balanced

picture of the risks and rewards associated with each possible course of action.

Helps to choose between several courses of action.

Decision Tree What?

Uses a tree-like graph or model of decisions and their possible consequences.

From this box draw out lines towards the right for each possible solution, and write that solution along the line. Keep the lines apart as far as possible so that you can expand your thoughts

Draw a small square to represent this towards the left of a large piece of paper.

At the end of each line, consider the results. If the result of taking that decision is uncertain, draw a small circle.

Decision Tree How ?

If the result is another decision that you need to make, draw another square.

Write the decision or factor above the square or circle. If you have completed the solution at the end of the line, just leave it blank.

Keep on doing this until you have drawn out as many of the possible outcomes and decisions as you can see leading on from the original decisions.

Challenge each square and circle to see if there are any solutions or outcomes you have not considered. If there are, draw them in.

Decision Tree How ?

Group Aided Decision

When all the members or group of members collectively take the decision, it is known as a Group Decision.

Features

Used when problem is complicated.

Time-consuming.Leads to higher quality

Delphi Technique

Nominal Group Technique

Scenario Analysis

Consensus making and

Brainstorming

Techniques used for Group Aided Decisions

Delphi Technique:

In this technique ,members don't have face to face interaction for decision making.Decisions are arrived at through written communication in the form of questionnaires and mails.

Nominal Group Technique:

It is structured group meeting which restricts the verbal communication among members.Developed to foster creativity and to overcome the tendency to criticize ideas when they are presented.

Scenario Analysis:

Analysis of possible future conditions.Done by evaluating major environmental variables and by assessing the likely strategies of other significant factors such as formulating alternative scenarios.

Consensus making and Brainstorming:

Consensus making tries to pool the ideas generated by several task subgroups to arrive at a decision.

Brainstorming is a creative technique of generating ideas to solve a problem.

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