WRITTEN BY

DECEMBER 2018

The Horse’s Mouth

Follow me on Twitter: @freeracingtips7

Email: keith@freeracingtips.co.uk

THE NAME’S Bond...

Keith Bond

Welcome to the Winter edition of The Horse’s Mouth, we have some cracking racing to look forward to; including an exciting renewal of the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day - more of that later. Altogether there is a grand total of 13 grade 1 races to get our teeth into plus plenty of other quality national hunt fare including the Coral Welsh National at Chepstow.

Flat racing is not totally left out and there is a the All Weather Championships going on right though until Good Friday, now in its sixth season, can anyone stop Adam Kirby or Luke Morris winning the jockey’s championship again? It is currently 3 – 2 in favour, the trainers championship has also been a closed shop with Mark Johnston and Michael Appleby winning twice and Charlie Appleby winning the other, will they be involved in the title race again or could the big guns of Gosden and Haggas pip them to the post now that they are putting more and more of their top horses into all-weather races after all remember Enable won her

maiden at Newcastle, what other potential superstars could be unleashed this winter?

Back to National Hunt here are some of the horses I will have more than a passing interest in as the season unfolds, LUST FOR GLORY, WAITING PATIENTLY, IF THE CAP FITS, LORD DUVEEN, ON THE BLIND SIDE and VINTAGE CLOUDS. Some have already run and other we are still waiting for their seasonal bow, the latter Vintage Clouds has long been my idea of a Grand National contender and even though I steer away from anti post betting this far ahead, the 20/1 with Bet365 looks tempting.

As always our Form Ratings expert Rob will be sharing some of his insights and Lee from our sister site Free Footy Tips will be sharing his “Managers Sack Race”.

Here’s wishing you a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year from all of us at TEAM FRT.

Free Racing Tips

FINDING AN EDGE

Keith Dalgleish - NATIONAL HUNT WINNER LAST RUN.

This is the first of a series of “Finding An Edge” pieces that I will be doing so look out for it in future copies of The Horse’s Mouth.

Scottish trainer and ex-jockey Keith Dalgleish is no stranger to the winners enclosure under both National Hunt and flat rules and he seems to have found the holy grail when it comes to placing last time out national hunt winners, a quick look at the bare stats since the start of 2014 gives us 20 winners from 56 races for a strike rate of 36%.

36% SR is not to be sniffed at however with a couple of tweaks this can be improved dramatically, take off all headgear, that means no blinkers, hoods, cheek pieces, eye shields etc etc and the statistics still show 20 winners but now it is from just 49 races 41% strike rate.

19 of those winners have come from just 33 class 3, 4 and 5 races which improves the strike rate to a massive 58%.

I fully expect this canny Scot to keep placing his last time out winners with the same sort of precision and this angle could be giving us an edge for a few years to come.

Statistics since 2006Age – 11 of the 12 winners were aged between 6 and 9.

Odds – 8 of the 12 favourites have won, all 12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting

Last Run – 8 of the 12 winners won on their last run before the King George VI Chase, 11 of those 12 ran within the last 44 days

Previous Course Form – 10 of the 12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Kempton, 8 of them had at least 1 previous win at Kempton

Previous Distance Form – 10 of the 12 winners had at least 4 previous runs over 23-25 furlongs, all 12 had at least 1 previous win over 23-25 furlongs

Previous Chase Form – 11 of the 12 winners had at least 8 previous chase runs and at least 5 previous chase wins

Rating – 9 of the 12 winners were rated 172 or higher

Grade 1 Wins – All 12 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1 race, 10 of 12 winners had at least 3 wins in a grade 1 race

Season Form – All 12 winners had at least 1 run that season, 9 of the12 winners had at least 1 win that season.

This looks a wide open renewal of the race and at time of writing the anti post favourite is last year’s victor MIGHT BITE (7/2) who ran below par in the Betfair Chase but could well bounce back, the current second favourite is WAITING PATENTLY (6/1) who is an impressive 6/6 in chases but tackles 3 miles for the first time and that may just be a trip too far on his seasonal debut, Betfair Chase hero Bristol De Mai (8/1) will find this a very different proposition to his favoured Haydock Park and is only rated 165, also currently on 8/1 is the reigning Cheltenham Gold Cup King NATIVE RIVER who finished runner up at Haydock and ticks most of the boxes I can’t see him being 8/1 on Boxing Day.

Selection

NATIVE RIVER 8/1

King George VI Chase12 Year Trends

3:05 Kempton

26th Dec 2018 ITV

3m 32Red King George VI Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo+)

The middle leg of the triple crown of chasing which began with Bristol De Mai’s victory in the Betfair Chase at Haydock last month and climaxes with the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March.

Key winter Racing Diary Dates32Red Christmas Festival

Kempton Park

The Betfair King George VI Chase is one of the most historic races in the Jumps calendar and has come to be regarded as the mid-season championship for the top chasers.

Wednesday 26th -Thursday 27th December 2018

Coral Welsh Grand National

Chepstow

The Welsh National is one of the big attractions in the bumper programme of top-class jump racing over the Christmas holiday period.

Thursday 27th December 2018

You will have often seen the advice “Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose” well this should be etched on your brain and engraved on your wallet.

The way to ensure you never use money to gamble with that shouldn’t be used for that purpose is to set up a working betting bank, made up only of money you can afford to lose, specifically for gambling purposes.

Your betting bank is your life blood and knowing how to manage it correctly is vital to your success when betting on horses because, without a betting bank, you are on a slippery slope to failure.

Win-BetsWin-bets should be your main focus and my recommendation is that your bets are 1% of your betting bank; for example; if you have a betting bank of £100 you are looking at £1 stakes, a £1000 bank gives you £10 stakes.

ReviewYou should review your betting bank on a regular basis, at least once a week, and divide the total by 100 to set your new stakes, i.e. if the betting bank has gone up your stakes go up, if they go down your stakes go down.

Losing StreaksUsing your betting bank in this way you can ride a losing streak, and no matter who you are and how good your selection method losing runs do happen, a few years ago I hit a losing streak of 22 losers on the trot, these were all straight win bets based on 1% of my bank and though it was frustrating even without recalculating my betting bank I could have had another 78 losers without being wiped out.

If I had been inexperienced after such a run I might have changed my selection criteria or even taken some time off from betting, but I didn’t because I know that losing streaks are inevitable, annoying yes, even soul destroying but inevitable, and even after that 22 bet losing run using this tried and tested method of money management it only took a few weeks to recover and build my bank up again to above the level it had been before the losing run began.

For those of you that like each way betting place your bets at 0.5% each way, for example if you bet £10 to win you should go £5 each way.

Multiple & exotic bets If you like multiples or exotic bets such as a Patent, Lucky 15 or god forbid a Goliath never place more than 1% of your bank on the bet, bets such as these are a riskier proposition although if all legs do win the rewards can be high.

Keep recordsRecord keeping is vital, I suggest you keep track of every bet in either a spreadsheet or a written ledger, showing your profit or loss on each bet and review this at least once a week and recalculate your unit stake at 1% of the current bank.

Some people have told me that my methods take the fun out of betting, maybe they do for some but it is more fun for me to reduce the risk of being wiped out by a series of bets and to maximise the good runs.

The Importance of a Betting BankYour guide to reducing risk...

Free Racing Tips

The 90 Minute Strategy ReloadedHey – Rob here from Form Ratings.

As you know the Free Racing Tips guys focus on the previews and tips side of things.

What you may not know, is that I look after a sister site called Form Ratings which provides bespoke racecards and a community dedicated to racing systems and strategies.

The 90 minute strategy is just one example of a relatively simple strategy (there are literally 1000’s of possibilities..) you could use to quickly identify some solid bets each day based on preset criteria.

To recap, the strategy criteria is as follows...

Pick the horse with the shorter forecast odds from the top two rated on the first 5 racecards that have a maximum of 10 runners and a minimum of 5 runners.

Then check the odds.

If the horse has odds of;

1.01 > 1.99 = 3 points 2.00 > 2.99 = 2 points 3.00 > 4.00 = 1 point

Summary

In the September edition of the magazine I tested over a 10-day period. At that time the strategy made  +5.39 points.

I did the same again between 17th-26th November and this time round the strategy made +4.49 points.

Not spectacular but we’re keeping it real here!

Good thing is that in order to try it out you only need access to the first 5 racecards (which you can get for free)

www.formratings.co.uk/free5

This is in theory better than just backing all - but the way you filter down could be definitely be improved.

Positives

SpeedySolid logic - top two rated “generally” have best form Staking reflects chances of horse winningNot too many selections (max 5 a day)

Negatives

Not been tested for long enough (yet..)Could narrow down a LOT more (eliminate some riskier race types)

As with all strategies it’s advisable to remember to track your bets so you can identify trends which will enable you to refine your selection process as you go along.

Here’s how one of our members uses the racecards…

Whilst it’s great for me to share strategies I’m looking at, the fact is there are plenty of people within the Form Ratings community who have been in the game MUCH longer.

They know a thing or two about racing and better still, they’re willing to share their ideas.

After all, we all have the same goal!

#1 LR DUTCHING STRATEGY

This is a system that I stumbled across about 3 weeks ago by looking at results based on the first LR column only.

I noticed a very good strike rate on backing the top rated and 2nd top rated selections under the LR column.

I back both selections by dutching them (backing them both for a profit).

I tested on prices up to 2/1 and backed £1.50 each way (sorry but I am an each-way man and not a win only man so don’t ask me about win only!!!!).

Over 2/1 to 11/2 I Back £1 ew, and over 6/1 50p ew.

Check out our next issue for detaills on the TR Handicap System

Footy NewsWith Lee Bradshaw from Free Footy Tips

Just when I was thinking about putting pen to paper for this Premier League Sack Race article, Jokanovic was “released” from Fulham due to poor results.

Only five points from twelve games for Fulham cemented the Serbian manager’s fate and the pressure was always on, after helping them to promotion from the Championship last season.

If poor results are the killer, then Mark Hughes (1/8 - William Hill) at Southampton must be getting worried about his position. As of the end of November, Southampton have shipped a massive 24 goals and with just 1 win from 13, it really is looking precarious for Hughes at St Mary’s.

He’s been in the job just over 8 months and there looks to be a queue forming for his replacement already, with Birmingham’s Garry Monk firm favourite with the bookies to replace Hughes at 15/8 with Paddy Power.

Crystal Palace’s draw with Manchester United helped Roy Hodgson to live another day, with his odds drifting out to 14/1 at Paddy Power.

It’s a different story for “The Special One” though, with his odds shortening right down to 8/1 at William Hill. If you’re quick, you might still get 14’s at BetVictor though!

Free Footy Tips Managers Sack Race

Visit www.freefootytips.co.uk for all the tips you need for the footy

*Whilst our tips are fully researched and provided in good faith, no profits are guaranteed. Please gamble responsibly.

Mourinho really is having a ‘mare of a season and you can see the frustration in him increase with every game - getting booed off at home to Crystal Palace shows just how incensed the United fan’s are getting with the poor results. That late winner by Fellaini against Young Boys did secure them a place in the last 16 of the Champions League, so that may have helped his cause a little.

I had high hopes for Burnley, especially after last season’s efforts from Sean Dyche’s men. They even managed a stint in Europe this season, even if it was only to Athens via Aberdeen! To be fair to Burnley, they’ve put their faith into Dyche for the past 6 years and know he’s the man. The bookie’s seem to think that too, with William Hill offering the best odds at 20/1 for him to leave before the end of the season.

Fellow strugglers, Cardiff City, have been fairly quiet on the fate of Neil Warnock and I think he’s keeping a low profile too - just in case! With just 2 wins from 13 by the end of November and with those 2 wins coming in the last 6 weeks, could it could be the turning point for Cardiff and Neil Warnock? Paddy Power says 14/1 for him to go.

Another one keeping a low profile is Huddersfield’s David Wagner, although he is probably revelling in the fact they’ve won their first 2 ever this season in the last few weeks. They’re now up to the dizzy heights of 15th and into double figures with 10 points, at the end of November.

BetVictor think he’s safe as they’re offering 40/1 on him to go by the end of the season.

Football really is a fickle game when it comes to managers, and with so much at stake it’s no wonder. Odds on that by the time you’re reading this one or more of the above will be down the Job Centre!

Premier League Sack Race Before End of the Season Odds (Odds correct at time of publishing)

Mark Hughes (Southampton) - 1/8

Roy Hodgson (Crystal Palace) - 14/1

Jose Mourinho (Manchester United) - 14/1

Neil Warnock (Cardiff City) - 14/1

Sean Dyche (Burnley) - 20/1

Nuno Espirito Santo (Wolves) - 25/1

Claude Puel (Leicester City) - 33/1

Manuel Pellegrini (West Ham) - 33/1

Rafa Benitez (Newcastle United) - 40/1

David Wagner (Huddersfield) - 40/1

Mark Hughes is listed at 1/8

Roy Hodgson is currently 14/1

Okay, so we haven’t got an all-seeing Mystic Meg super computer but what we have got is an amazing hand-crafted algorithm created especially for picking winners which monitors thousands of factors and rates every horse in every race across the UK including the big races like the Cheltenham Festival, St. Leger and The Grand National.

This information puts you ahead of the competition and even the bookies, it helps you identify horses’ form and potential on-the-day.

If you’d like to unlock access to EVERY single racecard every single day, I have some good news…

You can do so for just £9.97!

You’ll get every racecard for all UK & Irish racing for the next 30 days.

AND, access to the private members group where you can check out the many systems and strategies Form Ratings members use day in, day out.

If you’re a bit of a statto and like to take a more systematic approach to your betting, it’s well worth a look.

For details simply visit

www.formratings.co.uk/free5

How To Get Involved

Bespoke racecards for EVERY race for just £9.97!

WE CRUNCH THE NUMBERS SO YOU DON’T HAVE TO...

BEEP - BOOP!

*Full disclosure: We don’t have a sentient robot who can predict the future!