debt presentation state of israel - mof.gov.il · continue to tackle structural issues in the...
TRANSCRIPT
Debt PresentationState of Israel
Office of the Accountant GeneralMinistry of Finance
May 2017Strictly Private and Confidential
1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
Moody's S&P Fitch
A1 (Stable) A+ (Stable) A+ (Stable)
“Israel’s A1 government bond rating and
stable outlook are underpinned by its resilient
growth model, effective governance and
steadily improving debt metrics.” (August 2016)
“The stable outlook reflects our expectation that the
government will maintain stable public finances and
continue to tackle structural issues in the economy, and
that the impact of security risks on the Israeli economy
will be contained over the next two years.” (August 2016)
“Israel's well developed institutions and education
system have led to a diverse and advanced economy.
Human development and GDP per capita are above
the peer medians, and the business environment
promotes innovation, particularly among the high-
tech sector.” (November 2016)
Apr 2008: Moody’s upgrade Israel to A1
Nov 2007: S&P upgrade Israel to A
Sep 2011: S&P upgrade Israel to A+
Feb 2008: Fitch upgrade Israel to A
Aa3 / AA-
A1 / A+
A2 / A
A3 / A-Nov 2016: Fitch
upgrade Israel to A+
Source: Credit Agencies Reports.1 Credit rating refers to long-term foreign currency debt only.
Israel’s Strong and Improving Credit Profile Reflected in RatingsThe three main credit rating agencies have upgraded Israel’s foreign currency rating1 since 2007
1.7%3.2% 3.7% 4.7% 5.0% 5.2% 5.7% 6.7%
8.7% 8.9% 9.6%11.1% 12.0% 13.2% 13.8% 14.7% 14.8%
17.8% 18.5% 18.6%
33.2%
Budget Deficits(% of GDP, 2010-2018)
Source: MOF; IMF Fiscal Monitor, October 2016.
5.5%
3.0%
2.0%
4.3%
3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%3.4%
3.1%
3.9%
3.1%2.7%
2.1% 2.1%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-2018
Target Actual
Israel’s commitment to sound public finances is evident in the government’s budget performance
Budget Deficit and Financial Needs Comparison
Financial Needs(% of GDP, 2016)
Source: MOF.
71.1%
69.1%
68.4%
66.9%
66.0%
63.9%
62.2%
69.6%
67.7%
67.1%
65.7%
64.8%
62.4%
60.6%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
General Gov. Debt Central Gov. Debt
Budget Discipline Has Led a Declining Debt to GDP Ratio
The Relative Size of Government Debt Has Been Steadily Trending Downward(% of GDP)
108.2%
105.8%
97.1%
89.0%
84.9%
80.0%
74.6%
68.2%
63.8%
63.5%
62.2%
55.1%
52.8%
52.4%
45.7%
44.7%
42.7%
39.8%
35.1%
27.9%
22.2%
9.5%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
United States
Belgium
France
United Kingdom
Austria
Slovenia
Ireland
Germany
Finland
Netherlands
Israel
Iceland
Slovakia
Poland
Denmark
Switzerland
Sweden
Czech Republic
Latvia
Norway
Luxembourg
Estonia
57.3
50.7
46.8
44.2
32.7
29.8
27.9
27.8
22.9
21.1
20.1
18.8
18.4
14.4
12.0
8.2
5.8
4.7
4.6
-4.8
-10.9
-21.3
-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
Slovenia
Ireland
United Kingdom
United States
France
Finland
Latvia
Iceland
Slovakia
Netherlands
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Luxembourg
Czech Republic
Poland
Estonia
Germany
Sweden
Switzerland
Israel
Norway
General Government Debt to GDP Change in General Government Debt to GDP
Israel’s Government Debt: One of Lowest Among OECD Members
Sources: MOF; IMF Fiscal Monitor, October 2016.
(% of GDP, 2016) (percentage points of GDP, 2007-2016)
Israel is one of three OECD members to reduce government debt from pre-financial crisis levels.The charts compare Israel with European sovereigns, rated single A plus or better, and selected other comparators
Total Government Debt 1 : USD 193 billion (NIS 741 billion)
Tradable Local Currency
60%
Non Tradable Local Currency
27%
Foreign Currency
13%
Fixed Rate49%
CPI Linked41%
Floating Rate10%
Pension71%
Insurance25%
Other4%
Sovereign Bonds41%
Bonds Guaranteed
by the USA
37%
Bonds Org.19%
Other3%
Source: MOF.1 As of 31/12/2016 (USDILS: 3.845).
Stable and Diversified Investor Base
Source: MOF.
Public Debt Interest Expenditure
34.8
36.3
38.3 38.438.9
38.337.6
4.0%3.9% 3.8%
3.6%3.6%
3.3%
3.1%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Interest Expenditure (NIS Billions) % of GDP
20.6
9.4
7.6
21.5
9.2
7.6
Government Debt
Designated Bonds
Social Security
2015 2016
Interest Expenditure by Category(NIS billions)
Lower Interest Payments
Government Debt Risk Management Policy
Refinancing risk - The risk that the government will default on its future debt
payment obligations
Liquidity risk - The risk that the existing sources of financing are insufficient for
funding the State's needs
Market risk - Changes in the government debt and in the interest budget due to
changes in market factors
Credit risk - The State's activity in hedging transactions exposes the government
to credit risk in the event of insolvency by the counterparty to the transaction
14.4
9.59.18.57.57.47.16.76.56.56.56.46.16.15.85.84.94.63.93.2
Un
ite
d K
ingd
om
Swit
zerl
and
Me
xico
Be
lgiu
m
Isra
el
Jap
an
Fran
ce
Po
rtu
gal
Slo
vak
Rep
ub
lic
Spai
n
Ital
y
Slo
ven
ia
Ger
man
y
Turk
ey
Ko
rea
Un
ite
d S
tate
s
Po
lan
d
No
rway
Hu
nga
ry
Cze
ch R
epu
blic
6.5 6.5
6.3 6.4 6.3 6.3
6.6
7.1
7.4 7.3
7.5
8.07.8
7.27.0 6.9
6.3
6.2
7.2
7.16.9
7.2
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Debt Domestic Debt Foreign Debt
Refinancing Risk Managed With Prudent Financial Planning
Rollover Ratio9.4%
Average Time to Maturity(years)
Average Time to Maturity vis-à-vis OECD Peers(years, 2016)
Sources: MOF; IMF Fiscal Monitor, October 2016.
Primary Dealership in Governments Bonds
Source: MOF.
The Primary Dealership Program was launched in September 2006.
13 Primary dealers, out of which 6 are foreign banks.
Goals:
Supporting and strengthening an efficient market for trade in government bonds
Decreasing cost of funding
Increasing demand for government bonds
Foreign involvement in domestic market
Liquid fixed income market