1. 1. Projection for Fish Supply and Demand in Indonesia Tran Van Nhuong Chan Chin Yee
2. 2. Indonesia Datasets Model was used to generate baseline projections from 2012 to 2030 Variables for aggregated (national) and disaggregated (by fish group) data: Fish price Fish production (capture and aquaculture) Fish consumption (rural and urban) Fish exports Fish imports Results were one period (a year) and multi period
3. 3. Supply Match Demand Environment (Category) Fish Type Fish Type Fish Type Capture Marine Tuna Tuna Tuna Shrimp Shrimp Shrimp Grouper Grouper Grouper Other Other Other Inland Carps Carps Carps Tilapia Tilapia Tilapia Shrimp Catfish (Batracus) Catfish (Batracus) Catfish (Batracus) Catfish (Pengasius) Catfish (Pengasius) Catfish (Pengasius) Other Aquaculture Brackish water Shrimp Milkfish Milkfish Milkfish Tilapia Grouper Other Fresh water Carps Tilapia Shrimp Catfish (Batracus) Catfish (Pengasius) Other Processed Fish
4. 4. 2012 Production of Fresh Fish Environment (Category) Fish Type Capture (64.8%) Marine (60.4%) Tuna, Shrimp, Grouper, Other Inland (4.4%) Carps, Tilapia, Shrimp, Catfish (Batracus), Catfish (Pengasius), Other Aquaculture (35.2%) Brackish water (11.6%) Shrimp, Milkfish, Tilapia, Grouper, Other Fresh water (23.6%) Carps, Tilapia, Shrimp, Catfish (Batracus), Catfish (Pengasius), Other
5. 5. Sources of data Marine and Fisheries Statistics 2012 Central Bureau of Statistics National Bureau of Planning FAO COMTRADE Personal Communication
6. 6. Fish Quantity Balance Sheet (Base Year 2012) Matched Fish Type Quantity (tons) Tuna Shrimp Milkfish Catfish Batracus Catfish Pengasius Carps Tilapia Grouper Others Processed Fish Production 1,134,288 699,358 522,074 480,247 383,792 466,498 759,531 105,117 4,431,348 5,870,901 Import 11,445 3,253 0 0 849 0 0 0 156,428 163,688 Export 201,160 117,084 1,043 7,289 150 203 13,480 12,785 585,214 108,831 Urban Consumption 232,305 105,593 220,463 69,621 92,289 105,593 154,870 8,319 857,546 2,921,415 Rural Consumption 228,902 40,058 131,619 36,910 48,928 74,393 125,896 9,149 786,286 3,004,342 Intermediate Demand 483,366 439,875 220,463 366,426 243,274 286,308 465,284 74,864 2,358,731 0
7. 7. Baseline Scenario: Projected aggregate quantity of fresh fish, 2012-2030 Annual growth rate 2.5% 2.3% million kg Year
8. 8. Baseline Scenario: Projected aggregate value of fresh fish, 2012-2030 Billion Rupiah 1 USD equivalent to ~13 Thousands Rupiah Year
9. 9. million kg Baseline Scenario: Projected aggregate output of fresh fish by production system, 2012-2030 Annual growth rate 2.5% 3.0% 1.3% 2.0% 1.8% Year Total fresh fish output of Indonesia will expand by an average of 2.5% Capture fisheries output will grow faster than aquaculture
10. 10. Million kg Baseline Scenario: Projected fresh fish output by fish type, 2012-2030 Year
11. 11. Baseline Scenario: Projected annual growth rate of output by fish type, 2012-2030 % Fish Type Total fresh fish output will rise by 2.5% Fastest growing fish type is Grouper, follow by Tuna Slowest growing fish type is Betracus, follow by Pengasius
12. 12. Baseline Scenario: Projected regional per capita fish consumption, 2012-2030 Kg/person Annual growth rate 4.6% Annual growth rate -5.4% Year
13. 13. Thousand Rupiah/kg Baseline Scenario: Projected producer price by fish type, 2012-2030 Year 1 USD equivalent to ~13 Thousands Rupiah
14. 14. Baseline Scenario: Projected annual growth rate of producer price by fish type, 2012-2030 % Fish type Fastest growing price is Tilapia Slowest growing price is shrimp
15. 15. Alternative Scenario: Scenario 1: decrease 1% of shrimp export price in year 2016 Scenario 2: decrease 1% of capture fisheries production in year 2016 Impacts on growth rate by scenario, (deviation from baseline, %) %
16. 16. Alternative Scenario: Scenario 1: decrease 1% of shrimp export price in year 2016 Scenario 2: decrease 1% of capture fisheries production in year 2016 Impacts on growth rate of output by scenario, (deviation from baseline, %) %
17. 17. Thank You
18. 18. Supply Match Demand Environment (Category) Fish Type Fish Type Fish Type Capture Marine Tuna Tuna Tuna Shrimp Shrimp Shrimp Grouper Grouper Grouper Other Other Other Inland Carps Carps Carps Tilapia Tilapia Tilapia Shrimp Catfish (Batracus) Catfish (Batracus) Catfish (Batracus) Catfish (Pengasius) Catfish (Pengasius) Catfish (Pengasius) Other Aquaculture Brackish water Shrimp Milkfish Milkfish Milkfish Tilapia Grouper Other Fresh water Carps Tilapia Shrimp Catfish (Batracus) Catfish (Pengasius) Other Processed Fish
19. 19. Assumption: Growth Rate of Exogenous Variables for the Multi-period Model Growth of population, % Region Value Source or basis Rural 1.49 Central Bureau of Statistics (2000 2012) Urban 1.49 Central Bureau of Statistics (2000 2012) Growth of price index for non-food expenditures, % Region Value Source or basis Rural 1.84 Central Bureau of Statistics (2000- 2012) Urban 1.84 Central Bureau of Statistics (2000 2012) Growth of income, % Region Value Source or basis Rural 14.40 Central Bureau of Statistics (2000 2012) Urban 14.40 Central Bureau of Statistics (2000 2012)
20. 20. Assumption: Growth Rate of Exogenous Variables for the Multi-period Model (cont) Growth of domestic price of inputs to fish farming/harvest, % Growth of per capita spending on non-fish food, % Region Value Source or basis Rural 3.54 Bappenas, Growth of Consumption, See RPJMN 2015 2019 Urban 5.61 Bappenas, Growth of Consumption, See RPJMN 2015 2019 Input Value Source or basis Labor 9.46 Average of Minimum Wage Rate on Small Industry, 2000 2012 Fuel 1.17 Bappenas 2016-2019 Fertilizer 1.51 Panelkanas Research Seed 0.70 Panelkanas Research Feed 1.61 Panelkanas Research
21. 21. Growth of export of prices, % Growth of import prices, % Fish type Value Source or basis Tuna 15.00 Combine the FishStatPlus datasets (FAO) and Comtrade (UN) 2003-2012 Shrimp 17.41 Combine the FishStatPlus datasets (FAO) and Comtrade (UN) 2003-2012 Catfish Pengasius 0.10 Imposed (No Figure) Other 2.67 Combine the FishStatPlus datasets (FAO) and Comtrade (UN) 2003-2012 Processed 1.36 Combine the FishStatPlus datasets (FAO) and Comtrade (UN) 2003-2012 Fish type/group Value Source or basis Tuna 9.82 Combine the FishStatPlus datasets (FAO) and Comtrade (UN) 2003-2012 Shrimp -1.34 Combine the FishStatPlus datasets (FAO) and Comtrade (UN) 2003-2012 Milkfish 2.52 Personal Communication to the person in charge in MMAF Catfish Betracus 1.86 Personal Communication to the person in charge in MMAF CatfishPengasius 3.19 Personal Communication to the person in charge in MMAF Carps 11.86 Combine the FishStatPlus datasets (FAO) and Comtrade (UN) 2003-2012 Tilapia 5.69 Personal Communication to the person in charge in MMAF Other 8.81 Combine the FishStatPlus datasets (FAO) and Comtrade (UN) 2003-2012 Grouper 3.62 Personal Communication to the person in charge in MMAF Processed 8.53 Combine the FishStatPlus datasets (FAO) and Comtrade (UN) 2003-2012 Assumption: Growth Rate of Exogenous Variables for the Multi-period Model (cont)
22. 22. Growth of prices of all non-fish food expenditures, % Input by region Value Source or basis Rural Rice 11.64 Central Bureau of Statistics 2000 - 2012 Meats 5.01 Central Bureau of Statistics 2008 - 2012 Vegetables 2.90 Central Bureau of Statistics 2008 - 2012 Prepared food and beverages 5.68 Central Bureau of Statistics 2008 - 2012 Tobacco 6.66 Central Bureau of Statistics 2000 - 2012 Other food 5.68 Central Bureau of Statistics 2008 - 2012 Urban Rice 11.64 Central Bureau of Statistics 2000 - 2012 Meats 5.01 Central Bureau of Statistics 2008 - 2012 Vegetables 2.90 Central Bureau of Statistics 2008 - 2012 Prepared food and beverages 5.68 Central Bureau of Statistics 2008 - 2012 Tobacco 6.66 Central Bureau of Statistics 2000 - 2012 Other food 5.68 Central Bureau of Statistics 2008 - 2012 Assumption: Growth Rate of Exogenous Variables for the Multi-period Model (cont)
23. 23. Alternative Scenario: Scenario 1: decrease 1% of shrimp export price in year 2016 Scenario 2: decrease 1% of capture fisheries production in year 2016 Impacts on growth rate of output by fish type by scenario, (deviation from baseline, %) %