david smith - global futures and foresight part 2

What’s driving changeWhat can we do about itWhat s driving changeWhat can we do about it

David SmithChief executive

Global Futures and Foresight© Global Futures and Foresight 2011

Global Futures& Foresight

Food for thoughtg

• How to take advantage of:– Global competition– Changing populations

Changing working patterns– Changing working patterns– Growing faith groups– Booming infrastructure demand– Increasingly powerful and mobile computing– Social applications for networked business

Vi t l ld i t ti / t i / d i– Virtual world interaction/customer service/advice


Innovation

48 Years

1810 18581810 1858Ezra Warner of Waterbury, Connecticut patented the first can opener


Strategies to face the futureg

1 Inertia1. Inertia2. Agility3. Foresight

To reduce risk & exploit change


Co-opetitionp• Compete hard = collaborate hard• Reconfigure around client & market• Reconfigure around client & market

needs:– Mix of capabilities creating a unique

proposition only possible by collaborationproposition only possible by collaboration.• Not M&A• Intended to be for now and ‘temporary’

– Could be 3 months or 3 years.


Co-creation Networks

• Delegate innovation to outsiders.

• Loncin, a Chinese motorcycle manufacturer, sets broad specifications for products and then p plets suppliers work together to design the components.

• Expect more co-creation. http://jianshe.com.au/_img/lx50py‐side.jpg

Source: Technology enabled trends ‐from The McKinsey QuarterlyGlobal Futures

& Foresight

Co-Creation Car – Fiat Mio"a car to call your own”

15,000 people contributed design ideas

Creative Commons licence Global Futures& Foresight

Open Innovation - Mash-up businessHigher levels of brainpower applied.• "two heads are better than one "two heads are better than one. Validity.• Solving the right problems is half the

battle of innovation.Quicker to scale.• EG: In the Netflix/LG Electronics deal• EG: In the Netflix/LG Electronics deal.

– LG gets ready customers .– Netflix gets a new media platform – Something new - co-created.

http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/mar2008/id20080319_656312.htmGlobal Futures

& Foresight

Think Share – Think Groupp• Sharing• Collaborating• Collaborating• Personalising/Customising • Re-mixing (Mashup)g ( p)• Creating • Playing (Along/with)

F ll i (T itt lik )• Following (Twitter like)

Think co-creation – Think co-distributionThink co creation Think co distribution


WYK2

• Who do you know?

What you know & who you know

y– How many suppliers

– How many general contacts

– How many out of market people

– How many customers

• What do they know?• What do they know?

• Who could you join with?

• Who could you collaborate with to create a new offer?Who could you collaborate with to create a new offer?


Crowd-in–the-Cloud• How are you getting known?

What wisdom are you sharing?• What wisdom are you sharing?• Are you:

– Blogging/vlogging– Tweeting– What’s your following

• How many new contacts this month?y• How many re-tweets, likes do you get?• How many ideas do you get a month?


What does this mean• Business is not the same as before.• Faster collaborations and partnering• Faster collaborations and partnering.• More ideas, faster.• Customer oriented projects.p j• Networked products (and services).• Innovation everywhere.

N b i d l• New business models.• Continuing cost pressures.


If you do what you've always done you'll get what you'vedone, you ll get what you ve

always got.

Tony Robbins, Life Coach


WHAT WILL THEY EAT

Food, lifestyles and farming

“We are beginning to realise

, y g

We are beginning to realise that the era of food surpluses has come to an end”has come to an end

Financial Times, January 2011


Eating more meatg• Increasing prosperity leads to a

doubling of global meat productiondoubling of global meat production by the year 2050. United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

• Meat consumption in the developing world increased 17% between 2000-2010between 2000 2010.

• Industrial world eats twice as much meat per person.

http://starglobaltribune.com/2011/low-fat-food-new-method-can-produce-low-fat-sausages-that-taste-just-as-good-as-the-original-3828

http://www.worldwatch.org/vs2010


Artificial meat 2050• Low-tech ways are effective to increase

yields:yields:– Reducing the 30-40% food waste. – Better storage facilities and supermarkets.

Better packaging– Better packaging– Consumers in rich countries buy only what

they need.Wild d• Wild cards:– Artificial meat, made in giant vats.– Nanotechnology

• Delivering medication to livestock.

Dr Philip Thornton, a scientist International Livestock Research Institute in Nairobi


Aquaculture 2015 & 2025• Tripled in 15 years.

By 2015 aquaculture 39% of

q

• By 2015, aquaculture 39% of global seafood production.

“Global aquaculture productionGlobal aquaculture production will have to increase by 500% by the year 2025 to meet the projected needs of a worldprojected needs of a world population of 8.5 billion people,“ ASA President Johnny Dodson

http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=20742462

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_OORyagu8ETY/SpnryKF1AvI/AAAAAAAAAMQ/dke4pnF81lY/s400/fish-farming.jpg


Halal food sales 2020• Halal food sales $640bn a year.

$850b b 2020• $850bn by 2020.

• Roots in Middle East and Asia.• Muslims in Africa and Asia. • Growing Europe’s 50m Muslims.• America and Australasia are also

growing. http://www.arksign.com/images/Neon%20-%20Halal.jpg

http://halalworld.org/html/images/report/Halal%20foodobserving%20growthFood%20NewsComment.pdf


Personalized nutrition 2028• Forces driving personalized

t itinutrition:

– Non-invasive biomonitoring technology.gy

– Inexpensive genetic profiling.– Nutrigenomic knowledge– Artificial intelligence and data-mining– Artificial intelligence and data-mining http://www.thednawealthcreator.com/images/superstock_1098r-6105b.medium.jpg

http://food.fleishmanhillard.com/whatsinstore/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/food2028whitepaper.pdfGlobal Futures

& Foresight

SUSTAINABILITY DRIVING INNOVATIONINNOVATION

AdnamsSustainable premiumSustainable premium

Insight: • Environmentally sustainable products pgEnvironmentally sustainable products

attract a price premium.What they did: • “greening” their buildings technology and s-

beer

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• greening their buildings, technology and brewing processes.

• Reduced weight of glass in bottles.

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hive

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• The UK’s first carbon-neutral beer. Outcome:• Profits grow 65% to nearly £7m es

un.c

o.uk

/mul

timed

ia/

• Profits grow 65% to nearly £7m.

(Profits have slumped through the recession)

http://www.realbusiness.co.uk/news/corporate‐governance/5420906/adnams‐boosts‐bottom‐line‐with‐clever‐csr.thtml

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APPLEReduced transport costs reduced CO2Reduced transport costs, reduced CO2

Intent: • Reduced emissions during transportation.

What they did: • Reducing packaging 40%.g p g g• 50% more boxes in each

airline shipping container.

Outcome:• Fewer CO2 emissions.• Saves one 747 flight for• Saves one 747 flight for

every 32,000 units.http://www.apple.com/environment/complete-lifecycle/


PUMAReduced resources increased profit

Intent: • Reduced cardboard use by 65%

Reduced resources, increased profit

• Replaced plastic shopping bags, and waste.What they did: • ‘clever little bag’ Outcome:• Reduce water, energy and

diesel in manufacturing by 60%.diesel in manufacturing by 60%.• 8,500 tons less paper consumed.• 20m mega joules of electricity saved.• In transport 500 000 litres of diesel savedIn transport 500,000 litres of diesel saved.• 1m litres less fuel oil saved and water conserved.

http://www.environmentalleader.com/2010/04/27/a-look-at-pumas-fuseproject-packaging/Global Futures

& Foresight

CHANGING CONSUMERCONSUMER BEHAVIOURBEHAVIOUR

What I like – Where I like – On any screen I likeany screen I like


Smartphonesp• 50% of owners buy on their mobile.• Up 20% over last 9 months• Up 20% over last 9 months• 11% purchase on a weekly basis• 28% find product informationp• 80% using their mobiles to shop

C i i i• Comparing pricing• GPS to find stores

mecommerce when and where I likeSource: 10th May 2011 http://www.edigitalresearch.com/news/item/nid/457336168

mecommerce – when and where I likeSource: Verdict April 20th 2011 http://www.internetretailing.net/2011/04/mobile-set-to-change-the-face-of-the-high-street-as-shoppers-move-online-or-out-of-town/


Smartphone shoppingS a tp o e s opp g


Smartphone shoppingp pp gAt the grocery store


Convenience• Miniaturize home technology.

f• Aquaponics - fish and vegetables in artificial ecosystem. – The plants clean the waterp

– The fish nourish the plants with their waste.

http://blog.casase.it/2009/08/21/biosphere-home-farm-una-fattoria-in-cucina/

http://www.fastcompany.com/blog/cliff-kuang/design-innovation/food-2030-printed-demand-crafted-your-diet

Biosphere Home Farm


Convenience• 3D printer that mixes foods

and flavors to produceand flavors to produce something edible.– Delivers elaborate combinations

f f dof food.

– A rapid heating and cooling chamber

http://www.engadget.com/2010/01/21/the-cornucopia-mits-3d-food-printer-patiently-awaits-the-futu/

The Cornucopia: MIT's 3D Food Printer


Virtual/Online Communities• Virtual communities are not a

replacement for the traditionalreplacement for the traditional.

• Virtual spaces - leading incubator of communities.

• Participation inequality:. – 90% of users are lurkers

http://slwtf.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/kadawe4.jpg

– 9% of users contribute sometimes

– 1% of users actively participate and are responsible for all the actionp


ORGANISATIONALORGANISATIONALCHANGE

Managementg

1. There is a “right” way2. The role of the manager is to know

that “right” way3 To train people in the “right” way3. To train people in the right way4. To supervise people to ensure that

they do it the “right” way

The role of management is to ensure predictability & stabilitypredictability & stability


Management – Leadership b lbalance

• No change70-90% management, 10-30% leadership

• Change10 30% management 70 90% leadership10-30% management, 70-90% leadership

ange Professor John Kotter

Harvard Business School

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of c

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Leadership skills Global Futures& Foresight

Brand ValuationDifferences alone are not sufficient to achieve Differentiation

DIFFERENTIATIONThe Brand’s point of difference

Differences alone are not sufficient to achieve Differentiation

p

ENERGYThe Brand’s sense of momentum

RELEVANCE

Percentile rank

How appropriate the Brand is to youESTEEMHow well regarded The Brand is

KNOWLEDGEIntimate understanding of The Brand

A PROPRIETARY PRACTICE OF YOUNG & RUBICAM BRANDS


Brand ValuationDifferences alone are not sufficient to achieve Differentiation

LeadershipHigh earnings / high potential Apple

Differences alone are not sufficient to achieve Differentiation2.5x

1 41 9x

Leadership brands generate more value per pound of sale

Intangible assets are growing in

RE

NG

THN

CE

/ E

NE

GR

Y)

Unrealized potential

DecliningHigh earnings / low potential

1.4x1.9xare growing in importance and valueBrands are the only assets that

d B

rand

STR

ATI

ON

/ R

ELE

VAN Unrealized potential

or nicheLow earnings / high potential

ErodedSeriously challenged

Starbucks

0.7x

only assets that organizations can permanently own, leverage and sustain above and

Ene

rgiz

ed(D

IFFE

RE

NTI

A

New

Seriously challenged

Unfocused0.9xbeyond business

infrastructure to drive economic value

A PROPRIETARY PRACTICE OF YOUNG & RUBICAM BRANDS

Brand STATURE(ESTEEM / KNOWLEDGE) Global Futures

& Foresight

Successful leaders of changeg


“Organize” for … performance & customer

satisfactionsatisfaction.

“Disorganize” for renewal“Disorganize” for … renewal & innovation.


Vision

S OVISIONS O

CI di id lCommercialNext

CompanyIndividualCommercial

VisionResourcesEntrepreneur Foresight VisionResourcesEntrepreneur ForesightWhy

Leader CultureBehaviourCyclesWhat

Manager ValuesCommsCapabilityHow

Copyright © Next Visioning ip Ltd. 2010

How


2D view

Today Future


3D view

Today FutureTomorrow


3D execution

Manage EnvisionLead


3D leadershipp

Manager EntrepreneurLeader

Do you know who the entrepreneurs are in your organization?

What will your business challenges be in 5 years time?


Entrepreneur, Leader, Managerp , , gManager

Leader Entrepreneur

• Entrepreneurs seek change and exploit it• Entrepreneurs seek change and exploit it• Leaders take us into new territory• Managers drive out the value

Attitudinal ProfileGlobal Futures

& Foresight

E tL dManagerIndicator

EntrepreneurLeaderManager

VisionResourcesEntrepreneur Foresight VisionResourcesEntrepreneur Foresight

Leader CultureBehaviourCycles

Manager ValuesCommsCapability

Copyright © Next Visioning ip Ltd. 2010Global Futures

& Foresight

E tL dManagerIndicator


VisionResourcesEntrepreneur Foresight VisionResourcesEntrepreneur ForesightManager Leader EntrepreneurEntrepreneur Entrepreneur

Leader CultureBehaviourCyclesManager Leader EntrepreneurLeader Leader

Manager ValuesCommsCapabilityManager Leader Entrepreneur

M M


Manager Manager


E tL dManagerManager





M M


Manager Manager


E tL dManagerLeader





M M


Manager Manager


E tL dManagerEntrepreneur





M M


Manager Manager


Connect your entrepreneursy p• Give permission• Give attention• Resource• Encourage• Collaborate across

boundariesboundaries• Externalise• Honour innovation• Honour innovation


Imagine itImagine itIf you want to get ahead – you need to look aheady g y

Thank you +44 7932 408901

[email protected] h ff

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