DAVID FOUGEREChief Operating Officer

STRATEGY & UNCERTAINTYFor the times they are a-changin'

Freek VermeulenProfessor of Strategy and Entrepreneurship, Chair

Kaplan @ ICEF, November 2019

1. The fog of the future can make it difficult to spot the need for change

2. Industry norms: “The way we do things around here”

3. Shedding old habits: Change as an opportunity

STRATEGY & UNCERTAINTY: For the times they are a-changin'

* Francis Barraud

1990s: 40% market share; 320 stores2002: IPO (LSE) £1 billion2008: 600+ stores worldwide

“I have never heard such rubbish. I accept that supermarkets are a thorn in our side, but not for the serious music buyer, and as for the other two, I don’t ever see them being a real threat; downloadable music is just a fad.”

Steve Knott (HMV Managing Director), 2002

2013 & 2018

Mid-1990s: supermarket discount CDs1998: Amazon delivery2003: Apple iTunes

If you know the word, raise your hand (don’t say it out loud!)

. A N YM

. E N YD

“The development of mobile phones will be similar as in PCs. Even with the Mac, Apple attracted much attention at first, but they have still remained a niche manufacturer. That will be in mobile phones as well.”

“There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.”

“It’s kind of one more entrant into an already very busy space with lots of choice for consumers. But in terms of a sort of a sea-change for [our company], I would think that’s overstating it.”

Steve Ballmer (CEO Microsoft)

Jim Balsillie (CEO Blackberry)

Anssi Vanjoki (Chief Strategist, Nokia)

prior beliefs about success performance

Number of stars

Team experience

Prior successes

Box office success

Sorenson & Waguespack: Film distributors

Mental models

Number of stars

Team experience

Prior successes

Box office success

Marketing budget

prior beliefs about success performance

Sorenson & Waguespack: Film distributors

Mental models

1. The fog of the future can make it difficult to spot the need for change

2. Industry norms: “The way we do things around here”

3. Shedding old habits: Change as an opportunity

STRATEGY & UNCERTAINTY: For the times they are a-changin'

Source: Gordon Stephenson

“The cultural transmission of learned behaviour”

“The way we do things around here” Deal & Kennedy, 1982

“Detailing” in the pharmaceutical industry

Drug companies spend about 1/3 of revenue on detailing (about 14 percent on R&D)

In the US, there are 83,000 representatives

but, it takes on average 3 visits for one new prescription

it takes an average of 26 free samples

Source: Mizik and Jacobson, Management Science

1. The fog of the future can make it difficult to spot the need for change

2. Industry norms: “The way we do things around here”

3. Shedding old habits: Change as an opportunity

STRATEGY & UNCERTAINTY: For the times they are a-changin'

Innovation by cessation

replace by analogy

focus

eliminate

STEP 1: Identify a specific set of users

STEP 2: Eliminate from your value proposition what they don’t really care about

STEP 3: Introduce alternative solutions from other domains

Innovation by cessation

1. The fog of the future can make it difficult to spot the need for change

2. Industry norms: “The way we do things around here”

3. Shedding old habits: Change as an opportunity

STRATEGY & UNCERTAINTY: For the times they are a-changin'

low proportion of poor prognosis patients

high proportion of poor prognosis patients

STRATEGY & UNCERTAINTYFor the times they are a-changin'

Freek VermeulenProfessor of Strategy and Entrepreneurship, Chair

Kaplan @ ICEF, November 2019

kaplaninternational.com

THANK YOU

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