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Knocking at the College Door
Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity
with support from
Presented by:David A. LonganeckerPresident, WICHE
National Press ClubWashington, D.C.March 19, 2008
Knocking at the College Door - 2008
Background on Knocking
7th Edition of WICHE’s projectionsProjections of high school graduates by state and race/ethnicityOnly publication to include nonpublic school graduates in projectionsActual data from 1991-92 to 2004-05 and projections out to 2021-22
Knocking at the College Door - 2008
Caveat Emptor
Assumes existing patterns continue indefinitelyPolicy changes not explicitly modeled
NCLB and other accountability measuresNew state policy objectivesVariations in funding levels that affect progression
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Two Central Themes
Changes in total production
Escalating diversification
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First Central Theme: Total Production
Overall production of high school graduates/demand for postsecondary education
National peak in 2007-08 concludes period of rapid expansionSubsequent moderate decline
The change in production among regions and states varies greatly
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2008
U.S. Public and Nonpublic High School Graduates, 1996-97 to2004-05 (Estimated), 2005-06 to 2021-22 (Projected)
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.5
Mill
ions
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2008
South
West
Midwest
Northeast
Public and Nonpublic High School Graduates by Region, 1996-97 to 2004-05 (Estimated), 2005-06 to 2021-22 (Projected)
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
Mill
ions
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2008
2009-10(5-yr Chg.)
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000 West Midwest Northeast South
Contribution to the Nation’s Change in Total High SchoolGraduates Relative to 2004-05, by Region
2014-15(10-yr Chg.)
2019-20(15-yr Chg.)
Percent Change Between 2004-05 and 2014-15
in Total High School Graduates, by State
Percent Change Between 2004-05 and 2014-15
in Total High School Graduates, by State
ME
CT
MD
SC
KY
TN
MS
OK
MO
IL
IA
NM
CA
OR
WA
AK
HI
-4.99% to 5%
Percent Change Between 2004-05 and 2014-15
in Total High School Graduates, by State
ME
CT
MD
SC
KY
TN
MS
OK
MO
IL
IA
NM
CA
OR
WA
AK
HI
-5% to -9.99%-4.99% to 5%
WI
MN
NE
MI
OH
WV
PA
NY
MA
RI
Percent Change Between 2004-05 and 2014-15
in Total High School Graduates, by State
ME
CT
MD
SC
KY
TN
MS
OK
MO
IL
IA
NM
CA
OR
WA
AK
HI
WI
MN
NE
MI
OH
WV
PA
NY
MA
-10% or less-5% to -9.99%-4.99 to 5%
ND
SD
KS
WY
MT
LA*
NHVT
RI
Percent Change Between 2004-05 and 2014-15
in Total High School Graduates, by State
ME
CT
MD
SC
KY
TN
MS
OK
MO
IL
IA
NM
CA
OR
WA
AK
HI
WI
MN
NE
MI
OH
WV
PA
NY
MA
-10% or less-5% to -9.99%-4.99% to 5%5.01% to 10%
ND
SD
KS
WY
MT
LA*
NHVT
CO
AL
VADE
DC
NJ
RI
Percent Change Between 2004-05 and 2014-15
in Total High School Graduates, by State
ME
CT
MD
SC
KY
TN
MS
OK
MO
IL
IA
NM
CA
OR
WA
AK
HI
WI
MN
NE
MI
OH
WV
PA
NY
MA
-10% or less-5% to -9.99%-4.99% to 5%5.01% to 10%10.01% to 20%
ND
SD
KS
WY
MT
LA*
NHVT
CO
AL
VADE
DC
NJ
ID
IN
AR
NC
RI
Percent Change Between 2004-05 and 2014-15
in Total High School Graduates, by State
ME
CT
MD
SC
KY
TN
MS
OK
MO
IL
IA
NM
CA
OR
WA
AK
HI
WI
MN
NE
MI
OH
WV
PA
NY
MA
-10% or less-5% to -9.99%-4.99% to 5%5.01% to 10%10.01% to 20%Greater than 20%
ND
SD
KS
WY
MT
LA*
NHVT
CO
AL
VADE
DC
NJ
ID
IN
AR
NC
NVUT
AZ
TX
FL
GA
RI
Knocking at the College Door - 2008
Second Central Theme: Diversification
Escalating diversification – traditionally underrepresented populations are fastest-growing
By 2014-15, non-Whites project to account for 42.1% of public graduates nationally, an increase of 7.5 percentage pointsNon-Whites’ projected share of high school enrollments in 2014-15 = 47.9%
Driven by steep declines in White non-Hispanics and by rapid growth in minority populations, especially Hispanics
Composition of Public High School Graduates in the U.S.by Race/Ethnicity, 2004-05 (Actual); 2009-10 and 2014-15 (Projected)
1%
5%
14%
14%
66%
2004-05
American Indian/Alaska Native
Asian/Pacific Islander
Black non-Hispanic
Hispanic
White non-Hispanic
Composition of Public High School Graduates in the U.S.by Race/Ethnicity, 2004-05 (Actual); 2009-10 and 2014-15 (Projected)
1%
5%
6% 14%
15%
17%
14%
66%
61%
2004-05
2009-10
American Indian/Alaska Native
Asian/Pacific Islander
Black non-Hispanic
Hispanic
White non-Hispanic
Composition of Public High School Graduates in the U.S.by Race/Ethnicity, 2004-05 (Actual); 2009-10 and 2014-15 (Projected)
1%
5%
6%
7%
14%
15%
14%
21%17%
14%
66%
61%57%
2004-05
2009-10
2014-15
American Indian/Alaska Native
Asian/Pacific Islander
Black non-Hispanic
Hispanic
White non-Hispanic
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Cumulative Percent Change in U.S. Public High School GraduatesRelative to 2004-05 by Race/Ethnicity
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
3.1% 2.5%
13.7%
11.8%6.6%
14.9%16.0%
32.0%
62.7%
32.5%
54.3%
89.9%
-1.4%
-10.6%-13.4%
American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black non-Hispanic Hispanic White non-Hispanic
Knocking at the College Door - 2008
Countdown to Majority-Minority
RegionsThe West is projected to be majority-minority in 2010The South follows by 2017
StatesAs of the class of 2005: California, D.C., Hawaii, New Mexico, & TexasAdditions by the class of 2015: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, Mississippi, & Nevada
Proportion of Minority Public High School GraduatesIn 2014-15 (Projected)
Proportion of Minority Public High School GraduatesIn 2014-15 (Projected)
WV
SD
VT
10% or less
Proportion of Minority Public High School GraduatesIn 2014-15 (Projected)
WV
SD
VT ME
KY
IL
WI
OH
ND
WY
MT
NH
ID
INUT
IA
10% or less10.01% to 20%
Proportion of Minority Public High School GraduatesIn 2014-15 (Projected)
WV
SD
VT ME
KY
IL
WI
OH
ND
WY
MT
NH
ID
INUT
IA
MO
MN
NE
MI
PA
MA
KS
10% or less10.01% to 20%20.01% to 30%
Proportion of Minority Public High School GraduatesIn 2014-15 (Projected)
WV
SD
VT ME
KY
IL
WI
OH
ND
WY
MT
NH
ID
INUT
IA
10% or less10.01% to 20%20.01% to 30%30.01% to 40%
MO
MN
NE
MI
PA
MA
KS
CT
TN
OR
WA
AK
NY
LA*
CO
AL
NJ
AR
RI
Proportion of Minority Public High School GraduatesIn 2014-15 (Projected)
WV
SD
VT ME
KY
IL
WI
OH
ND
WY
MT
NH
ID
INUT
IA
10% or less10.01% to 20%20.01% to 30%30.01% to 40%40.01% to 50%
MO
MN
NE
MI
PA
MA
KS
CT
TN
OR
WA
AK
NY
LA*
CO
AL
NJ
AR
RI
SCOK
VADE
DC
NC
Proportion of Minority Public High School GraduatesIn 2014-15 (Projected)
WV
SD
VT ME
KY
IL
WI
OH
ND
WY
MT
NH
ID
INUT
IA
10% or less10.01% to 20%20.01% to 30%30.01% to 40%40.01% to 50%50.01% or greater
MO
MN
NE
MI
PA
MA
KS
CT
TN
OR
WA
AK
NY
LA*
CO
AL
NJ
AR
RI
SCOK
VADE
DC
NC
MD
MS
NM
CA
HI
NV
AZ
TX
FL
GA
Knocking at the College Door - 2008
Factors Influencing Shifts
BirthsWhite births minus non-White births = 1.25M in 1990; 514K in 2004The fertility rate (2004) among Hispanic women = 1.67 times the rate among White, non-Hispanic women
Domestic migrationMovement from Midwest and Northeast to West and South
Schooling optionsNonpublic and homeschools have higher proportions of White non-Hispanic students
Immigration7.6M new residents immigrated between 2000 and 2006Most from Latin America, especially Mexico
Knocking at the College Door - 2008
Challenges Ahead for States, School Districts, and K-12 Schools
How will those facing declining enrollments preserve quality despite reduced enrollment-based funding?How will those facing continued growth provide capacity and preserve quality in the face of that growth?How can they better prepare students for college and the workforce, especially those from the fastest-growing populations (Hispanics and Asians/Pacific Islanders) for whom English may be a second language?
Knocking at the College Door - 2008
Challenges Ahead for States and Postsecondary Institutions
How can they enhance access and best ensure the success of all students, especially those who have been historically underserved?How can they preserve choice so that able students have a realistic chance to enroll at the college that best meets their needs and interests?How might colleges adjust to decreasing demand, but from an ever more diverse pool of recent high school graduates?