data, demand, and demographics · u.s. housing market forecast market in 2016 will have five...

Data, Demand, and Demographics:A Symposium on Housing Finance

Co-presented by the Urban Institute and CoreLogic

November 20, 2015CoreLogic

Strengthening Economic Prosperity in the U.S.Housing in the Final Year of the Obama Administration

Jason Furman, chairman, Council of Economic Advisers, White House

Introduction by: Sarah Rosen Wartell, president, Urban Institute

Join The Conversation

#HousingData

3

Land Use Regulation and Economic Rents

The Urban InstituteNovember 20, 2015

Jason FurmanChairman, Council of Economic Advisers

The Gap Between House Prices and Construction Costs Has Grown Over Time, Even Excluding the Mid-2000s Bubble

4Source: Gyourko and Molloy (2015)

Real House Prices

2013

Real Construction Costs

70

100

130

160

190

220

250

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Real Construction Costs and House Prices Over TimeIndex, 1980=100

Some of the Largest Cities With Restrictive Land Use Regulations Have Persistently High House Prices Relative to Construction Costs

5Source: Glaeser and Gyourko (2003)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Ratio of House Prices to Construction Costs: 1989 vs. 1999Share of a City's Units Valued Above 140% of Construction Costs in 1989

Share of a City's Units Valued Above 140% of Construction Costs in 1999

New York

San Fran.

Anaheim

San Diego

Los Angeles

AlbuquerqueRaleigh

Denver

SeattleAustin

Nashville

Tucson

New Orleans

DallasJacksonville

Tampa

Wichita

Las VegasChicago

Oklahoma CityLittle Rock

Tulsa

PhiladelphiaSan Antonio

HoustonFt. WorthBaltimore

El Paso

Minneapolis

Columbus

Indianapolis

Toledo

Omaha

MIlwaukeeDetroitKansas City

Norfolk

Greensboro

Sacramento

Phoenix

Strictness in Land Use Regulations is Associated with Reduced Housing Affordability Across U.S. Metro Areas

6Source: National Association of Realtors, Housing Affordability Index (2013); Wharton Residential Land Use Regulatory Index (Gyourko, Saiz, and Summers, 2008); CEA Calculations.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

Zoning and Affordability in Select Metro Areas NAR Housing Affordability Index in 2013

Wharton Residential Land Use Regulatory Index (Higher Values=More Regulation)

Providence, RI

Philadelphia, PAKansas City

St. Louis

Boston, MA

Unlike Single-Family, Multifamily Housing Starts Have Returned to Pre-Recession Levels, but Their Long-Run Steady State may be Higher

7Source: Census

Single-Family Starts

Oct-15

0

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

1,800

2,100

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Single and Multifamily Housing Starts: 2000 to 2015Thousands of Units, SAAR

Multi-familyStarts

Migration Rates in the United States Have Been Declining Irrespective of Distance

8Source: Molloy, Smith, and Wozniak (2014)

Inter-county, same state(left axis)

Intra-county (right axis)

2013

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

0.030

0.035

0.040

0.045

1948 1955 1962 1969 1976 1983 1990 1997 2004 2011

Migration Rates by DistanceMigration Rate Migration Rate

Inter-state (left axis)

Labor Demand Increases in High Regulation Cities Lead to Smaller Increases in Housing Stock, Greater House Price Appreciation, and Lower Employment Growth

than in Low Regulation Cities

9Source: Saks (2008); CEA Calculations.

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Housing Stock House Prices Long-Run Employment

Low Regulations

High Regulations

Effects of One-Percent Higher Labor DemandPercent Change

States With a Less Constrained Supply of Housing Experienced a More Consistent and Substantial Pace of Cross-State Income Convergence

10Source: Ganong and Shoag (2015); CEA Calculations

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.8

1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-10

Less ConstrainedSupply

More ConstrainedSupply

Speed of Income Covergence Across States by Housing SupplyPercent of Income Gap Closed Each Year

11

Land Use Regulation and Economic Rents

The Urban InstituteNovember 20, 2015

Jason FurmanChairman, Council of Economic Advisers

Multifamily & Single Family Market Growth

Frank Nothaft, senior vice president, chief economist, CoreLogic

Introduction by: Faith Schwartz, senior vice president, Government Affairs, CoreLogic


#HousingData

©2015 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.©2015 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.

Multifamily & Single-Family Market

Outlook

Data, Demand, and Demographics:

A Symposium on Housing Finance

Frank Nothaft, CoreLogic SVP & Chief Economist

November 20, 2015

©2015 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.

U.S. Housing Market Forecast

Market in 2016 will have five features:

Higher interest rates (short ↑ 1%, long ↑ ½%) Strong household formations (>1¼ million) Home prices up (4% to 5%) Rental robust: vacancy low, rents up Loan manufacture remains high quality

Home sales: 2016 expected to be best since 2007

Distressed sales drop nationally, high in select metros

Originations: More SF Purchase, less Refi; More MF

SF # least since 1997; $ similar to 2014

14


U.S. Macroeconomic Backdrop is Positive

Consumer Price Index YOY Percent Change

Gross Domestic Product YOY Percent Change Unemployment Rate

8

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

2000Q1 2002Q3 2005Q1 2007Q3 2010Q1 2012Q3 2015Q1

Perc

ent C

hange

Gross Domestic Product YOY Change

Gross Domestic Product, (Bil. Ch. 2009 USD, SAAR) for United States

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Jan 2000 Aug 2002 Mar 2005 Oct 2007 May 2010 Dec 2012 Jul 2015

Unemployment Rate

Unemployment rate: Total, (%, SA) for United States

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Jan2000

Mar2002

May2004

Jul2006

Sep2008

Nov2010

Jan2013

Mar2015

Consumer Price Index YOY Percent Change

All items All items less food and energy

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jan2000

Mar2002

May2004

Jul 2006 Sep2008

Nov2010

Jan2013

Mar2015

Consumer Confidence Index



Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Conference Board, National Bureau of Economic Research

Oct.

5.0%

Oct.

98


Federal Funds Expected to Rise

2015 2016 2017 2018-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5Minutes September 17, 2015

September 17, 2015 Median

Longer Run

September 2015

Median0.375 1.375 2.625 3.50

Federal Funds Target (interest rate, in percent)

Source: Federal Open Market Committee Meeting on September 17, 2015. In the plot each circle indicates the value (rounded to

the nearest 1/8 percentage point) of an individual FOMC participant’s judgment of the appropriate level of the target federal funds

rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run.

3.375

16


Long-term Rates Expected To Rise

Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (H.15),

IHS Global Insight November 2015 projection.

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

4.5%

2.7%

QE1 QE2Operation

TwistQE3 Forecast

Dec.

2016:

Interest Rate on 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages and 10-Year Constant Maturity Treasury (percent)

30-Year FRM

10-Year Treasury

17


Large Demographic Tailwind Has Arrived

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

Number of People in 2014 (Millions)

Age Cohort

Average Age First-time

Homebuyer

Average Age Repeat

Homebuyer

Largest Age Cohort

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population as of July 1, 2014

18


Household Formation Accelerated in 2015

Annual Household Growth (Net Change, in Millions)

2.0

1.3

0.5 0.50.6

0.50.6

0.9

0.7 0.7

1.6

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey, net change in number

of households, January-to-September compared with same period in prior year.

©2015 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.20Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 American Community Survey, Table S2504

Components of the U.S. Rental Stock

Rental Stock

Multifamily 42%One-family 35%

2- to 4-family 18%

Manufactured

Housing 5%


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jul-99 Jul-01 Jul-03 Jul-05 Jul-07 Jul-09 Jul-11 Jul-13 Jul-15

Source: National Multifamily Housing Council (Last Update: Survey conducted October 13-20, 2015)

Market Tightness Index

Market

Unchanged

Market Tighter

Market Looser

Survey question for Market Tightness Index:

How are apartment market conditions in the local markets that you watch? “Tight” markets are those with low vacancies and

high rent increases. Conditions obviously vary greatly from place to place, but on balance, apartment market conditions in your

markets today are: 1) Tighter than three months ago 2) Looser than three months ago 3) About unchanged from three months

ago 4) Don’t know or not applicable.

Apartment Markets Are Tightening in Most Metros

©2015 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.22

Office of the Chief Economist

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1986 1991 1996 2000 2005 2010 2015

Multifamily Starts Starts For Rent

Note: Gray bars indicate recessions.

Sources: Census Bureau and National Bureau of Economic Research

Multifamily Housing Starts (Thousands of Units, Annualized)

Multifamily Starts (2+)

New Rental Construction in 2015 Is Highest Since 1986

Starts For Rent (2+)

Office of the Chief Economist


45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Source: Census Bureau (Survey of Market Absorption)

Absorption Rate (Percent)

Apartments Rented within

6 months after completion

(completions through 2014:Q4)

Apartments Rented within

3 months after completion

(completions through 2015:Q2)

New Apartment Absorption in 2014-2015

Was Fastest of the Past Decade

83%

64%


Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 50 largest metropolitan rental markets;

size of bubble represents the size of the single-family rental detached stock.

Single-Family Detached Rental Stock

Grew by 3 Million in U.S., 2006–2013

Percent Change in Single-Family Detached Rental Stock 2006 - 2013

Cha

nge

in N

um

be

ro

f S

ingle

-Fa

mily

Deta

ch

ed R

en

tal S

tock 2

00

6 -

20

13

10


Vacancy Rates Are Lowest on Single-Family Homes

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

One-family Detached3-Bedroom

One-family Attached2-Bedroom

5- to 9-Unit 10-or-moreApartments

Rental Vacancy Rate (2015 Second Quarter)

Source: CoreLogic RentalTrends (average April-June 2015), U.S. Census

Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey (2015Q2)


Single-family Rent Growth Strong, Especially in West

11

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

Source: CoreLogic Rental Trends, metropolitan area median rent August 2015

Atlanta Chicago Dallas Detroit Houston Los

Angeles

Miami New

York

Philadelphia Phoenix San

Francisco

Seattle Washington

DC

1086 1667 1401 1074 1333 2468 1824 2266 1240 1339 4123 2083 1809Rent

Rent Growth for 3-Bedroom Detached Houses, August 2014 to August 2015


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Home Sales: Up 5% in 2015, Best since 2007Non-Distressed Resale up every year since 2011

27

Home Sales (millions)

Forecast

Source: CoreLogic REAS MarketTrends through August 2015, projected after.

Resale

REO

NewShort


U.S. Home Prices Projected to Rise 5% in 2016

28

CoreLogic Home Price IndexTM (January 2000 = 100)

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

37%

7%

Forecast

Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index including distressed sales, January 2000 = 100

(November 3, 2015 release) and CoreLogic REAS HPI Forecasts

Projected to reach prior peak by mid-2017 (but still 18% below 2006 peak in real $)


For-Sale Home Inventory Has Been Very Low Since 2012

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015

Homes-For-Sale Inventory as a Percent of Households

Sources: National Association of Realtors, U.S. Census Bureau (New Residential Sales and Housing Vacancy Survey).

Note: Existing home inventory excludes Condo & Co-op Inventory before 1999.

29


8.58

8.01

7.02

5.34

4.56

3.07

3.06

2.99

2.94

1.22

1.1

0 2 4 6 8 10

Providence, RI

Philadelphia, PA

Cleveland, OH

Orlando, FL

Chicago, IL

Minneapolis, MN

Los Angeles, CA

Seattle, WA

Dallas, TX

Denver, CO

San Jose, CA

Months’ Supply, Days on Market, Home-Price Growth

Metro Area

Days

On

Market

Home

Price

Gain

10 14.2%

5 10.9%

44 9.9%

48 8.4%

21 6.6%

29 4.0%

29 2.6%

84 4.1%

89 1.0%

83 4.0%

102 2.5%

U.S. 4.8 months

Number of MonthsSource: CoreLogic Home Price Index (percent change, May

2014 to May 2015) and CoreLogic Listing data for May 2015

(median Days on Market for sold properties).30


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Housing Credit IndexTM for Purchase (2000Q1=100)

Underwriting Remains Cautious

2015Q2

27

HCITM Factors

Credit Score

Loan-to-Value

Debt-to-Income

Broker Share

Documentation (Full/Low/No)

Adjustable-Rate Mortgage

Source: CoreLogic TrueStandings, 2015Q2 based on partial data; 2000Q1 = 100.

Bars represent 2001 and 2008-2009 recessions. 31


Underwriting Remains Cautious

Source: CoreLogic TrueStandings, April 2015 purchase-money originations compared with 2000 and 2001

Purchase Orig.

2000-2001 (Blue)

April 2015 (Red)

32


Single-family Originations: More Purchase,

Less Refinance in 2016

33

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Single-family Mortgage Originations (Billions of U.S. dollars)

Purchase

Refinance

----Forecast----


$50

$73 $83

$104

$1

08

$134

$1

33

$144

$101

$56 $

70

$115

$150

$175 $185

$2

10 $225

$0

$25

$50

$75

$100

$125

$150

$175

$200

$225

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Multifamily Mortgage Originations Projected Up

Multifamily Mortgage Originations (Billions of Dollars)

10

Sources: FFIEC (HMDA), OTS Thrift Financial Report, ACLI Investment Bulletin,

MBA Commercial Mortgage Banker Origination Survey, CoreLogic.

Forecast


U.S. Housing Market Forecast

Market in 2016 will have five features:

Higher interest rates (short ↑ 1%, long ↑ ½%) Strong household formations (>1¼ million) Home prices up (4% to 5%) Rental robust: vacancy low, rents up Loan manufacture remains high quality

Home sales: 2016 expected to be best since 2007

Distressed sales drop nationally, high in select metros

Originations: More SF Purchase, less Refi; More MF

SF # least since 1997; $ similar to 2014

35


The views, opinions, forecasts and estimates herein are those of the CoreLogic Office of the Chief

Economist, are subject to change without notice and do not necessarily reflect the position of

CoreLogic or its management. The Office of the Chief Economist makes every effort to provide

accurate and reliable information, however, it does not guarantee accuracy, completeness, timeliness

or suitability for any particular purpose.

CORELOGIC and the CoreLogic logo are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.

Where to find more information

Look for regular updates to our housing forecast, commentary and

data at

http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/research.aspx

Twitter: @CoreLogicEcon @DrFrankNothaft

36

Panel One: Consumer Financial Health and Well-Being

Janneke Ratcliffe, assistant director, financial education, Consumer FinancialProtection Bureau

Bill Bynum, CEO, Hope Enterprise Corporation/Hope Credit Union and Chair,Consumer Advisory Board, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

Rachel Schneider, senior vice president, Center for Financial ServicesInnovation

Moderated By: Ellen Seidman, senior fellow, Urban Institute


#HousingData

I am an image/content

placeholder.

www. USfinancialdiaries.org | ©, 2011

How are you?

Symposium on Housing FinanceConsumer Financial Health and Well-BeingRachel Schneider

Housing cost to income > 30%

80% homeowners/84% of Renters

Owners = 48%

Renters = 77%


US Financial Diaries

• Jonathan Morduch, Professor of Public Policy and Economics, New York University

• Rachel Schneider, Senior Vice President, Center for Financial Services innovation

Principal Investigators

AverageIncome

- 25%

+ 25%

Five spikes/dips per year on averageUS Financial Diaries

2.7 Spikes

2.7 Dips

Spikes and dipsUS Financial Diaries

3.6

2.6

2.22.0

3.4

2.5

2.1 2.0

Poor Near Poor Moderate Income Middle Income

Income Spikes or Dips Per Household per Year

Spikes Dips


Usually More than One Cause

PRELIMINARY DATA – DO NOT CITE


Never miss a bill

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

19%



Miss same bill(s)

41%


Rotate missed bills


39%

Connect with us

cfsinnovation.com

@cfsinnovation

@USFDstudy

#finhealth

Linked In: Center for Financial Services

Innovation

Download the report: http://bit.ly/ConsumerFinHealth

http://bit.ly/ConsumerFinHealth

Panel Two: Housing, Urbanization & Demographics

Shekar Narasimhan, managing partner, Beekman Advisors Rolf Pendall, director, Metropolitan Housing and Communities Policy Center,

Urban Institute Joe Nery, president-elect, National Association of Hispanic Real Estate

Professionals; national board member, treasurer and attorney, Nery &Richardson

Lynn Fisher, vice president for research and economics, Mortgage BankersAssociation

Moderated By: Laurie Goodman, director, Housing Finance Policy Center, UrbanInstitute


#HousingData

Looking for a new normal:

Affordability and stability in U.S.

housing markets

Rolf Pendall, Ph.D.

Director, Metropolitan Housing &

Communities Policy Center

November 20, 2015

Accelerating Rental Demand;

53

Source: U.S. Census 1990-2010, Urban Institute Projections (p). Other race includes Asians and Pacific Islanders, American Indians and Alaska Natives, people of other races, and people of two or more races.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

901

99

0

20

00

20

10

20

20

(p)

20

30

(p)

19

90

20

00

20

10

20

20

(p)

20

30

(p)

Renters Owners

Ho

use

ho

lds

(mill

ion

s)

Other race

Hispanic

Black

White

Ownership, Rental Growth Both Led by Hispanics

Renter cost burdens have increased, especially for

African Americans and Hispanics

54

Source: U.S. Census, 2000; American Community Survey, 2012; microdata analyzed by Urban Institute. Whites, Blacks, and Asians include only non-Hispanics. Asians include Pacific Islanders. Total includes all these groups plus American Indians, Alaska Natives, people of other races, and multi-racial individuals.

20

00

20

12

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

White Black Hispanic Asian Total

Perc

ent

of

ren

ters

pay

ing

ove

r 3

0 p

erce

nt

of

inco

me

for

ho

usi

ng

and

uti

litie

s

55

Mortgage credit is much tighter than in 2001

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.01

99

8

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Ow

ne

r-o

ccu

pie

d h

om

e p

urc

has

e lo

an

ori

gin

atio

ns

(mill

ion

s)

White

Hispanic

Black

Asian

Source: HMDA

High and low scenarios: What will be the

“new normal” for homeownership?

56

White

Other

Hispanic

Black

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1990 2000 2010 2020(p) 2030(p)

Ho

me

ow

ne

rsh

ip r

ate

,3

5-

to 4

4-y

ear

-old

s

Source: U.S. Census 1990-2010, Urban Institute projections (p).

Actions for an affordable and secure “new normal”

Rental housing supply and affordability

Encourage apartment construction in fast-growth metro areas,

especially in high-opportunity suburbs

Entitle extremely low income renters to housing assistance, and

preserve affordability of as much subsidized stock as possible

Improve access to homeownership

Prepare renters for buying

Assure lender commitments by reforms and enforcement in

underwriting, affordability, and anti-discrimination

Assure financial health

Work over the life course to link housing and asset building

57

For more information:

Laurie Goodman, Rolf Pendall, & Jun Zhu, Headship and

Homeownership: What Does the Future Hold? (Urban

Institute, 6/2015)

Laurie Goodman et al., Housing Finance at a Glance: A Monthly

Chartbook (Urban Institute, latest 10/20/2015)

Rolf Pendall: [email protected]

Laurie Goodman: [email protected]

58

http://www.urban.org/research/publication/headship-and-homeownership-what-does-future-hold

http://www.urban.org/research/publication/housing-finance-glance-monthly-chartbook-october-2015

mailto:[email protected]


Housing Demand: Demographics and the Numbers behind the Coming

Multi-Million Increase in Households

November 2015

Lynn Fisher, Vice President, Research & Economics

White paper available at mba.org/research

HOUSEHOLD DEMAND – Changing Demographics and Economy Plus Trends

Source: Census, IPUMS CPS and MBA

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

18-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-70 70-75 75-80 80+

Mill

ion

s

Projected Changes in Households, by Age 2014-2024

Non-Hisp. White Black Asian Other Hispanic

Using PredictedHeadship Rates

Unemployment Rate

• Source: BLS

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

199

0 -

Ja

n1

99

0 -

Au

g1

99

1 -

Mar

199

1 -

Oct

199

2 -

May

199

2 -

Dec

199

3 -

Ju

l1

99

4 -

Fe

b1

99

4 -

Se

p1

99

5 -

Ap

r1

99

5 -

Nov

199

6 -

Ju

n1

99

7 -

Ja

n1

99

7 -

Au

g1

99

8 -

Mar

199

8 -

Oct

199

9 -

May

199

9 -

Dec

200

0 -

Ju

l2

00

1 -

Fe

b2

00

1 -

Se

p2

00

2 -

Ap

r2

00

2 -

Nov

200

3 -

Ju

n2

00

4 -

Ja

n2

00

4 -

Au

g2

00

5 -

Mar

200

5 -

Oct

200

6 -

May

200

6 -

Dec

200

7 -

Ju

l2

00

8 -

Fe

b2

00

8 -

Se

p2

00

9 -

Ap

r2

00

9 -

Nov

201

0 -

Ju

n2

01

1 -

Ja

n2

01

1 -

Au

g2

01

2 -

Mar

201

2 -

Oct

201

3 -

May

201

3 -

Dec

201

4 -

Ju

l2

01

5 -

Fe

b2

01

5 -

Se

p

Growing Older

Source: IPUMS CPS and MBA

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

18-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-70 70-75 75-80 80+

Projected Changes in Hispanic Population, by Age 2014 - 2024

Change in Hispanic Population (left axis) 2014 Homeownership Rate (right axis)

Source: IPUMS CPS and MBA

40%

62%70% 71%

17%

13%9% 6%

4%

4%5% 7%39%

21%16% 17%

44%

64%72% 73%

16%

11%8% 5%

5%

5%5% 7%35%

19% 15% 14%

36%

54%65% 69%

22%

18%

12% 7%

5%

6%

7% 9%37%

22%16% 15%

1994 2004 2014 1994 2004 2014 1994 2004 2014 1994 2004 2014

Age 25-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-54 Age 55+

Cohort Structure/Tenure Share

SF Own SF Rent MF Own MF Rent

Multifamily/Single-family Split Relatively Stable

Forecast Summary

Source: IPUMS CPS, MBA

64.8 66.5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Mill

ion

s

Homeowner and Renter Households

Homeowners Renters

Homeowership rate:

Contact Information & MBA Resources

Mortgage Bankers Association1919 M Street NW, 5th Floor

Washington, DC 20036

MBA research page: www.mba.org/research

Research Institute for Housing America:http://www.housingamerica.org

MBA Newslink:http://www.mortgagebankers.org/NewsandMedia/MBANewsLink

Lynn FisherVice President

Research & [email protected](202) 557-2739

http://www.mba.org/research

http://www.housingamerica.org/

http://www.mortgagebankers.org/NewsandMedia/MBANewsLink


Rental Housing: the affordability crisisNovember 20, 2015

Page : 67

Most of the Recent Increase in Rental

Supply Has Come from Single-Family Homes

61%

32%

5% 2%

Share of Increase in 2006–12 (Percent)

Single Family

Multifamily with 5 or More Units

Multifamily with 2–4 Units

Other

Note: Other units include mobile homes, trailers, boats, recreational vehicles, and vans.Source: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, The State of the Nation’s Housing, 2014, www.jchs.harvard.edu. All rights reserved.

3.18

1.64

0.280.10

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Single Family Multifamilywith 5 or

More Units

Multifamily with 2–4 Units

Other

Change in Occupied Rental Units, 2006–12 (Millions)

http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/

Declining Incomes and Rising Rents

Continue to Erode Affordability

Page : 68

Source: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, America’s Rental Housing, 2013, www.jchs.harvard.edu. All rights reserved.

Income (Thousands) Rent (2012 dollars)

705

735

765

795

825

855

885

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Median Renter Income Median Gross Rent

2012 Dollars


More than Two Million Assisted Rentals Are

at Risk of Loss from the Affordable Stock

Page : 69

Notes: Other units include those with HOME Rental Assistance, FHA insurance, Section 202 Direct Loans, USDA Section 515 Rural Rental Housing Loans, USDA Section 538 Guaranteed Rural Rental Housing Program, and State Housing Finance Agency Funded Section 236. Data include properties with active subsidies as of May 16, 2014. Source: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, The State of the Nation’s Housing, 2014, www.jchs.harvard.edu. All rights reserved.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Units with Expiring Affordability Periods (Thousands)

Project-Based Assistance Low Income Housing Tax Credit Other


Therefore What?

Supply: · Cannot build workforce without subsidy due to cost in almost all markets. Basically, need to rent to workforce under $1/ft and building costs are $2.50-5/ft. Plus increasing demand and significant loss of currently subsidized units on horizon and all the “easy” land for building is gone

Demand:· Flexible, portable housing vouchers with different terms (some transitional like 6 months all the way to 3 years)

Capital:· Plenty of capital-debt and equity available for multifamily but not at the right cost for affordable. Expand tax-exempt bonds using 80/20 example to more targeted 60-20-20 bonds with incentives for States to use their allocations for preservation w/rehab

Housing, Urbanization & DemographicsNovember 20, 2015

Joe Nery 2015 President Elect

www.nahrep.org

Since 1970, the Hispanic

population has grown 592%.

By comparison, the U.S.

population overall has

grown 56% over the same

period.

Hispanic Population & Household Formation Trends

Income & Purchase Power

Hispanics experienced increases in

overall income with 57% of Hispanic

households earning over $40,000,

41% earning over $50,000, and 13%

earning over $100,000.DeNavas-Walt, Carmen and Bernadette D. Proctor. Income and Poverty

in the United States: 2013. United States Census Bureau: September

2014.

Consumer Attitudes & Preferences

• Most Hispanics (58%) say they expect their

personal financial situation to improve, despite

the face that only a third of them say the

economy is on the right track.

• Nearly half of all Hispanics (48%) say this is a

good time to buy a home.

2014 Fannie Mae National Housing Survey

Hispanic Homebuyer Nuances

General Characteristics

Other Common Characteristics

•Full Spectrum of Borrowers

•70% are 1st Time Buyers

•Growing Income – Lower Wealth

•Multiple Co-Borrowers

• Thin Credit Files

•Self- Employed

•Seasonal Work, such as Construction Jobs

•Non-Traditional Income Sources

•Non-Permanent Residency

•Multi-Generational Families

•Cultural - Language

Large Obstacles

Affordable Housing Inventory

Mortgage Qualifications

Down Payments

Housing, Urbanization & DemographicsNovember 20, 2015

Joe Nery 2015 President Elect

www.nahrep.org

The Political Realities of Banking & Housing Policy

Dave Stevens, president and CEO, Mortgage Bankers Association

Tim Pawlenty, president and CEO, Financial Services Roundtable

John Dalton, president, Housing Policy Council

Moderated by: Sarah Rosen Wartell, president, Urban Institute


#HousingData

Panel Three: Single Family Financing and Credit Accessibility: Is the Status Quo Alright?

Bob Ryan, special advisor to the director, Federal Housing Finance Agency Richard Green, senior advisor for housing finance in policy development and

research, US Department of Housing and Urban Development Julia Gordon, executive vice president, National Community Stabilization Trust Larry Platt, partner, K&L Gates

Moderated By: Faith Schwartz, senior vice president, government affairs,CoreLogic


#HousingData

© Copyright 2013 by K&L Gates LLP. All rights reserved.

DATA, DEMAND, AND DEMOGRAPHICS

Co-hosted by Urban Institute and CoreLogic

November 20, 2015

Laurence E. Platt

K&L Gates LLP

1601 K Street, NW

Washington, DC 20006-1600

202.778.9034

[email protected]

www.klgates.com

blog: www.consumerfinancialserviceswatch.com

FALSE CLAIMS ACT FHA CASES AND

SETTLEMENTSCase or Defendant

Name

Date Filed or

Settled

Jurisdiction / U.S.

AttorneyStatus

Bank 10/06/2015 S.D.N.Y. Settled - $85 million

Bank 06/01/2015 N.D. Ga. Settled - $212.5 million

Bank 02/25/2015 D. Colo. Settled - $123.5 million

Bank 08/20/2014 E.D.N.Y. Settled - $800 million

Bank 06/30/2014 N.D. Ohio; E.D.

Mich.

Settled - $200 million

Bank 06/17/2014 D.D.C. Settled - $418 million

Bank 02/04/2014 S.D.N.Y. Settled - $614 million

Non-Bank 04/04/2013 S.D.N.Y. Settled - $36.3 million

Bank 03/12/2012 E.D.N.Y. Settled - $1 billion

Bank 02/24/2012 S.D.N.Y. Settled - $132.8 million



klgates.com 82

CFPB SETTLEMENTSCompany* Date

CFPB

Restitution

CFPB

Penalty

CFPB

TotalProduct Alleged Violation

Bank 4/9/2014 727 M 20 M 747 M Cards Deceptively marketed add on products


Bank 6/19/2014 225 M 3.5 M 228.5 M Cards

Deceptively marketed add on products;

discrimination



MC 12/19/2013 125 M 0 M 125 M Mortgages Mortgage servicing violations

MC 1/29/2014 109 M 0 M 109 M Mortgages Kickbacks [on appeal]

FSC 10/1/2012 85 M 14.1 M 99.1 M Cards Deceptively marketed add on products

Bank 12/20/2013 80 M 18 M 98 M Auto Loans Discriminatory lending

PC 5/12/2015 70 M 0 M 70 M Mobile-phone Unauthorized charges ("cramming")

FSC 12/23/2013 59.5 M 9.6 M 69.1 M Cards Deceptively marketed add on products

MC 4/21/2015 48 M 15 M 63 M Mortgages In-process loan mods, short sale delays, Speedpay

Bank 9/25/2014 47.9 M 5 M 52.9 M Cards Deceptively marketed add on products

Bank 6/17/2014 50 M 0 M 50 M Mortgages Mortgage servicing violations

PC 12/17/2014 50 M 0 M 50 M Mobile-phone Unauthorized charges ("cramming")

Bank 9/29/2014 27.5 M 10 M 37.5 M Mortgages Mortgage servicing violations

Bank 12/23/2013 35 M 0 M 35 M Mortgages Discriminatory lending

Bank 1/22/2015 10.8 M 24 M 34.8 M Mortgages Kickbacks

Bank 12/10/2013 34.1 M 0 M 34.1 M Cards Deceptively marketed as interest free

Bank 5/19/2015 15 M 10 M 25 M Online CreditDeceptive ads, signed up without permission,

mishandled billing disputes

FSC 7/14/2015 24 M 0 M 24 M Auto Loans Discrimination

MC 8/12/2014 14.8 M 6 M 20.8 M Mortgages Deceptively marketed interest rates, etc

MC 6/4/2015 18 M 2 M 20 M Mortgages LO Compensation

klgates.com 83

*MC=Mortgage Company || *FSC=Financial Services Company || *PC=Phone Company

Data, Demand, and Demographics:A Symposium on Housing Finance

Co-presented by the Urban Institute and CoreLogic

Thank you for joining us!

data, demand, and demographics · u.s. housing market forecast market in 2016 will have five...

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