Data and Indicators Data and Indicators for Sustainable for Sustainable

Human DevelopmentHuman Development

Mihail PeleahMihail PeleahUNDP Bratislava Regional CenterUNDP Bratislava Regional Center

“ “In God we trust; In God we trust; all others must all others must bring data.” bring data.”

PhenomenonPhenomenon

MeasurementMeasurement

EvaluationEvaluation

ActionAction

every indicator is a proxy

context and knowledge are important

opportunity costs

SSpecificpecific

MMeasurableeasurable

AAchievablechievable

RRelevantelevant

TTime-boundime-bound

Data and indicatorsData and indicators

Data Data the status of phenomenon the status of phenomenon number number meaningless out of contextmeaningless out of context

Indicator Indicator the the status status and and tendency tendency of phenomenon of phenomenon put put datadata in a context in a context extracts meaning extracts meaningcombination of two+ sets of datacombination of two+ sets of dataprogress or regress vis-à-vis certain targetsprogress or regress vis-à-vis certain targets

• Ogre at swamp• Princess in tower

• Helmet, sword

• Saved princess• Positive feelings

• Love• Transformation• Reproduction

Sustainability?• Shrek 2• Shrek the Third

Externalities?

To live "happily ever after." To live "happily ever after."

Indicators based monitoring Indicators based monitoring chains chains

Input Output Outcome Impact

Intermediate Final

Financial, physical

resources

Goods and services

produced by inputs

(classrooms built,

textbooks provided)

Access to, use of, and

satisfaction with services (enrolment, repetition,

dropout rates)

Effect on dimension

of well-being

(literacy)

Plus sustainability and positive externalitiesPlus sustainability and positive externalities

What exactly are we measuring?What exactly are we measuring?

Status of phenomenonStatus of phenomenon StockStock FlowFlow Input / Output / OutcomeInput / Output / Outcome

Sustainability of statusSustainability of status Ability to sustainAbility to sustain Efficiency / EffectivenessEfficiency / Effectiveness

ProcessProcess The way status was achievedThe way status was achieved Dynamics, trends Dynamics, trends

Measuring sustainable human Measuring sustainable human developmentdevelopment

Triple nature of Sustainable Human Triple nature of Sustainable Human DevelopmentDevelopmentProcessProcess: type of development, focused on : type of development, focused on

people (“development of people, for people, people (“development of people, for people, by the people”)by the people”)

StatusStatus: achieved [average] level of human : achieved [average] level of human development in country development in country

SustainabilitySustainability: ability to sustain achieved : ability to sustain achieved status, cost at which it is achievedstatus, cost at which it is achieved

“ “You never have to You never have to be ‘be ‘absolutely sureabsolutely sure’ ’ of something, being of something, being ‘‘reasonably certainreasonably certain’ ’ is enough!” is enough!”

When data is not there… When data is not there… Proxy indicatorsProxy indicators

Every indicator is a “proxy” of something:Every indicator is a “proxy” of something: reflect indirectlyreflect indirectlycontextually linkedcontextually linkedhighly dependent on contextual interpretationhighly dependent on contextual interpretationneed broader backgroundneed broader backgroundcan be used for estimatescan be used for estimatesboth advantages and disadvantagesboth advantages and disadvantages

Quantitative (“hard statistics”) and Quantitative (“hard statistics”) and qualitative (“soft” data but also quantifiable)qualitative (“soft” data but also quantifiable)

Examples of proxies – povertyExamples of proxies – poverty

Quantitative:Quantitative: Food share of household expendituresFood share of household expenditures Level of outstanding payments per category per Level of outstanding payments per category per

household (HH member)household (HH member) Eligibility for bank loan (share of approved loan Eligibility for bank loan (share of approved loan

applications of all submitted)applications of all submitted) Usage of dental services (per capita in municipality)Usage of dental services (per capita in municipality)

Qualitative (perception based)Qualitative (perception based) Can you afford…Can you afford… Where spend vacationsWhere spend vacations

Metadata – data on dataMetadata – data on data How data items are defined, what methodology was How data items are defined, what methodology was

usedused How data were collected, when, by whomHow data were collected, when, by whom Give a clue on potential for biasGive a clue on potential for bias Assessment of quality of data Assessment of quality of data Confirm definitions, facilitate decisions about Confirm definitions, facilitate decisions about

compatibility of data from different sourcescompatibility of data from different sources Guides and validates the interpretation of data and their Guides and validates the interpretation of data and their

indicatorsindicators

Drivers of social exclusionSpecific local conditions

Social exclusion status

Individual characteristics

interact with

in context of

…and result in

Structures and institutions; values and behavior patterns; policiesDrivers are external factors, influenced by legacies, that either speed up or slow down the process of individual vulnerabilities turning into social exclusion

(social exclusion risk factors), like poor education, disability, minority status

Predominant industry, single or multiple employment opportunities, local infrastructures, history of violent conflict or environmental disaster

of the individual in three dimensions—exclusion from economic life, social services, and civic and social participation

Social Exclusion ChainSocial Exclusion Chain

Different combinations of individual risks, drivers Different combinations of individual risks, drivers and local context results in different levels of social and local context results in different levels of social

exclusionexclusion

Average

Capital or economic center

Small town

Village

Average risk of exclusion in the region hides significant territorial differences…

Individual vulnerabilities (like disability) interact with local

conditions and amplify exclusion

Disabled doesn’t mean automatically excluded!

Local conditions matter

Source: RHDR “Beyond Transition: Toward Inclusive Societies”, 2011

Different combinations of individual risks, drivers Different combinations of individual risks, drivers and local context results in different levels of social and local context results in different levels of social

exclusionexclusion

If you are young person, with low education, living in village, with single company—you face high risk of exclusion

…and secondary education doesn’t help much in these conditions…

…while vibrant business environment makes a lot of difference

…economic centers offer more opportunities (even with low education)

…and much more if you are educated

++

++ + +

Source: RHDR “Beyond Transition: Toward Inclusive Societies”, 2011

“ “With one foot in a bucket With one foot in a bucket of ice water, and one foot of ice water, and one foot in a bucket of boiling in a bucket of boiling water, you are, water, you are, on the on the averageaverage, comfortable.” , comfortable.”

Moldova: Small Area Deprivation Moldova: Small Area Deprivation IndexIndex

Who takes care of children?Who takes care of children?

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Fatherand

mother

Father Mother Anotherfemale person

Anotherperson

It' not acase

No migrantsMother migrant

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Fatherand

mother

Father Mother Anotherfemale person

Anotherperson

It' not acase

No migrantsFather migrant

Source: Moldova Study on Impact of Migration on Communities and Children, 2006

Indicator is a messageIndicator is a message

Say it with figures…Say it with figures………and show it with chartsand show it with chartsAbuse of indicatorsAbuse of indicators

Wrong indicatorWrong indicatorWrong interpretationWrong interpretationComparing unlike scales Comparing unlike scales Errors in data or analysis methodsErrors in data or analysis methodsUsing out of date values Using out of date values Inappropriate extrapolationInappropriate extrapolation Ignoring variabilityIgnoring variability

What kind of corruption?What kind of corruption?

Daniel Kaufmann, Farewell presentation at the World Bank, Dec. 9th, 2008, International Anti-corruption Day

Group workGroup work

Each group select one issue in their group Each group select one issue in their group assignmentassignment

Discuss in groups (30 mins)Discuss in groups (30 mins)

What and how to measure? What and how to measure? Why to measure?Why to measure?

Be SMARTBe SMART IOOIIOOI

Present (10 mins each group)Present (10 mins each group)