dark matter planning - starchapter...kanban at scale. lku • bakardzhie, dimitar. 2015....

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A Kanban Technique Joshua Rowell Agile Coach & Gamer @JRowelTech DARK MATTER PLANNING

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Page 1: Dark Matter Planning - StarChapter...Kanban At Scale. LKU • Bakardzhie, Dimitar. 2015. Probabilistic Project Planning. InfoQ • Agile Manifesto, 2001. Principles behind the Agile

A Kanban Technique

Joshua Rowell

Agile Coach & Gamer

@JRowelTech

DARK MATTER

PLANNING

Page 2: Dark Matter Planning - StarChapter...Kanban At Scale. LKU • Bakardzhie, Dimitar. 2015. Probabilistic Project Planning. InfoQ • Agile Manifesto, 2001. Principles behind the Agile

WHY DO

WE PLAN? To Reach A Goal

Cope With

Or Control

Uncertainties

Page 3: Dark Matter Planning - StarChapter...Kanban At Scale. LKU • Bakardzhie, Dimitar. 2015. Probabilistic Project Planning. InfoQ • Agile Manifesto, 2001. Principles behind the Agile

Kanban • Visualize Workflow

• Limit Work in Process

• Manage Flow

• Make Process Policies

Explicit

• Improve Collaboratively

Page 4: Dark Matter Planning - StarChapter...Kanban At Scale. LKU • Bakardzhie, Dimitar. 2015. Probabilistic Project Planning. InfoQ • Agile Manifesto, 2001. Principles behind the Agile

STOP STARTING

START FINISHING

Page 5: Dark Matter Planning - StarChapter...Kanban At Scale. LKU • Bakardzhie, Dimitar. 2015. Probabilistic Project Planning. InfoQ • Agile Manifesto, 2001. Principles behind the Agile

Dark Matter Dark matter is the

name we give to

matter we can not

observe directly.

“The space between

the stars.”

Page 6: Dark Matter Planning - StarChapter...Kanban At Scale. LKU • Bakardzhie, Dimitar. 2015. Probabilistic Project Planning. InfoQ • Agile Manifesto, 2001. Principles behind the Agile

HOW DO YOU MEASURE

WHAT YOU CAN’T SEE?

?

Page 7: Dark Matter Planning - StarChapter...Kanban At Scale. LKU • Bakardzhie, Dimitar. 2015. Probabilistic Project Planning. InfoQ • Agile Manifesto, 2001. Principles behind the Agile

OBSERVE AND MEASURE

WHAT YOU CAN

photo credit: Two black holes collide. University of Glasgow

Page 8: Dark Matter Planning - StarChapter...Kanban At Scale. LKU • Bakardzhie, Dimitar. 2015. Probabilistic Project Planning. InfoQ • Agile Manifesto, 2001. Principles behind the Agile

TRACK THE UNKNOWN

Page 9: Dark Matter Planning - StarChapter...Kanban At Scale. LKU • Bakardzhie, Dimitar. 2015. Probabilistic Project Planning. InfoQ • Agile Manifesto, 2001. Principles behind the Agile

TRACK KEY METRICS

• Throughput: The average throughput of

the development process per unit time

• WIP: The average number

of work items in progress

• CYCLE/LEAD TIME: The average time a

work item spends in development as WIP

Page 10: Dark Matter Planning - StarChapter...Kanban At Scale. LKU • Bakardzhie, Dimitar. 2015. Probabilistic Project Planning. InfoQ • Agile Manifesto, 2001. Principles behind the Agile

DO THE MATH

• N = (1 + FL + DM)Np

• Np = Number of Planned Items*

• DM = Dark Matter

• FL = Failure Load

* Use Randomized Branch Sampling

Page 11: Dark Matter Planning - StarChapter...Kanban At Scale. LKU • Bakardzhie, Dimitar. 2015. Probabilistic Project Planning. InfoQ • Agile Manifesto, 2001. Principles behind the Agile

FINISH THE MATH…

• T=N(LTt/WIPt)

• N = Number of Items

• LTt = Average Lead Time

• WIPt = Average WIP

Page 12: Dark Matter Planning - StarChapter...Kanban At Scale. LKU • Bakardzhie, Dimitar. 2015. Probabilistic Project Planning. InfoQ • Agile Manifesto, 2001. Principles behind the Agile

THE RESULT

Page 13: Dark Matter Planning - StarChapter...Kanban At Scale. LKU • Bakardzhie, Dimitar. 2015. Probabilistic Project Planning. InfoQ • Agile Manifesto, 2001. Principles behind the Agile

WE VALUE…

Responding to change

over following a plan

Page 14: Dark Matter Planning - StarChapter...Kanban At Scale. LKU • Bakardzhie, Dimitar. 2015. Probabilistic Project Planning. InfoQ • Agile Manifesto, 2001. Principles behind the Agile

Examples:

7 Cadences of Kanban, Scrum Ceremonies,

XP Feedback/Planning Loops

Feedback Loops

Page 15: Dark Matter Planning - StarChapter...Kanban At Scale. LKU • Bakardzhie, Dimitar. 2015. Probabilistic Project Planning. InfoQ • Agile Manifesto, 2001. Principles behind the Agile

PLANNING MODEL

Plan with contingency

(Risk-Based)

Plan in advance (Fixed)

Don’t plan – prepare and

explore (Scenerio)

Plan alongside

(Emergent)

Controllable Uncontrollable

Knowable

Unknowable

Page 16: Dark Matter Planning - StarChapter...Kanban At Scale. LKU • Bakardzhie, Dimitar. 2015. Probabilistic Project Planning. InfoQ • Agile Manifesto, 2001. Principles behind the Agile

• Start Measuring

• Cycle Time

• Lead Time

• Throughput

• Work in Process

• Start Tracking the

Unknown

• Failure Load

• Emergent Features

• Scope Creep

• Interruptions

WHAT CAN YOU DO NOW?

Page 17: Dark Matter Planning - StarChapter...Kanban At Scale. LKU • Bakardzhie, Dimitar. 2015. Probabilistic Project Planning. InfoQ • Agile Manifesto, 2001. Principles behind the Agile

QUESTIONS

@JRowelTech

Page 18: Dark Matter Planning - StarChapter...Kanban At Scale. LKU • Bakardzhie, Dimitar. 2015. Probabilistic Project Planning. InfoQ • Agile Manifesto, 2001. Principles behind the Agile

REFERENCES

• Anderson, DJ. 2012. Kanban At Scale. LKU

• Bakardzhie, Dimitar. 2015. Probabilistic Project Planning. InfoQ

• Agile Manifesto, 2001. Principles behind the Agile Manifesto. [online]

• Linden-Reed, Janice. 2015. Kanban Cadences & Information Flow. LKU

• Scrum Guides. 2014. Scrum Guide: Events. Scrum.org, ScrumInc.

• Emergn Ltd. 2015. Planning Flow. www.valueflowquality.com