dailymexico - latibex

PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND OTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON PAGE 19 OF THIS REPORTThis document has been produced by BBVA Bancomer, S.A., Institución de Banca Múltiple, Grupo Financiero BBVA BancomerFor further information please contact the areas listed in this document. No part of this report may be copied, conveyed or distributed into the countries in which distribution is prohibited by law, or furnishedto any person or entity in those countries. The failure to comply with these restrictions may breach the laws of the relevant jurisdiction.

Equity and Credit Strategies for MexicoRodrigo Ortega [email protected]+52 55 5621 9701

Fixed Income and Forex Strategy – Latin AmericaDirectorJuan José García [email protected]+52 55 5621 9245

Mexico City, December 12, 2010

DailyMexicoMARKETSMEXICO

Strategic Outlook Investors await corporate and cyclical dataThe market pauses for new global cycle data, with high hopes pinned to US 4Q09 results to be revealed this week.

Monetary Curves Exhaustion of flattening trend on Cetes curveThe resulting correction at the long end of the curve could narrow the slope spread vs. the swaps curve.

Debt Curves Bonos attractively valued vs. UdibonosThe Bonos-Udibonos spread in real terms has increased with rising implied inflation now at about 5.15%.

Exchange Rates MXN set to break resistance levels Technical factors continue to underpin our view of greater MXN appreciation.

Stock Market Markets close virtually flat Optimism ahead of US earnings reports. Heineken buys Femsa Cerveza. Alfa provides 4Q09 earnings guidance. Oma’s passenger traffic still weak.

Corporate Debt Fitch upgrades Ford Motors to B- from CCC with a positive outlook Grupo Collado bondholders accept company’s restructuring proposals.

Technical Analysis Markets move sideways A lateral session for the IPC.

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No part of this report may be copied, conveyed or distributed into the countries in which distribution is prohibited by law, or furnished to any person or entity in those countries. The failure to comply with these restrictions may breach the laws of the relevant jurisdiction.PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND OTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS REPORT PAGE 2

DailyMexicoMexico City, December 12, 2010

ResearchMarkets • Mexico

Investors await corporate and cyclical dataThe market pauses for new global cycle data, with high hopes pinned to US 4Q09 results to be revealed this week.

Emerging markets continue to attract investors staking out positions. Several factors, in fact, point to the continuance of a somewhat more positive tone in emerging markets: 1) China, the strongest among emerging markets, remains robust as exports grew 17.7% YoY in December and imports amounted to 56%, which indicates that the country is a hub of economic activity and demand directly and indirectly favoring other emerging markets (for example, via ongoing strong commodity prices, with crude oil topping USD82/b); 2) investment flow data continues to favor taking positions in these markets as evidenced by results from the hedge fund industry, which showed profit margins of about 2% in emerging LatAm markets, and by the upbeat reception of global issues (e.g., USD1bn in 10Y Mexican bonds and EUR3bn in Poland for 15Y yields) despite the US Treasury’s new supply of 10Y and 30Y paper for USD34bn this week; and 3) lower impact of local events, such as Venezuela’s recent currency devaluation, on other emerging economies. Given the above, we continue to sustain a positive outlook in the short and medium terms for these markets and especially Latam markets.

Monetary Curves

Debt Curves

Exchange Rate

Stock Market

Corporate Debt

Technical Analysis

Juan José García [email protected]+52 55 5621 9245

Rodrigo Ortega [email protected]+52 55 5621 9701

APPENDIX

Calendar Macro

Strategic Outlook




Cetes yield curve Short-term (1Y/1M) curve slope

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.74.8

4.9

5.0

28-day 91-day 182-day 273-day 364-day-6

-5

-4-3

-2

-1

0

daily change current last month

% 1 day-ch, pb

6034

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10sw aps cetes

bp

Source: BBVA Bancomer, Market Strategies for Latin America Source: BBVA Bancomer, Market Strategies for Latin America

Strategic Outlook

Debt Curves

Exchange Rate

Stock Market

Corporate Debt

Technical Analysis

Exhaustion of flattening trend on Cetes curveThe resulting correction at the long end of the curve could narrow the slope spread vs. the swaps curve.

Since the mid-November ’09 approval of new tax provisions in the 2010 budget, Cetes market investors have eased the inflation premium. This has been reflected in considerable curve easing, particularly between the 6-month and 1-month maturities, where the spread has narrowed from 45bp at the end of October ’09 (previous high) to just 5bp currently. Recent remarks from central bank governor Carstens to the effect that the tax measures will have a limited impact have largely justified this move. In our view the Cetes curve flattening trend is now exhausted, and we see a risk of correction (steepening) in the short term. By contrast, the swap slope (same maturities) is at 39bp.

The key to the trend in interest rates will be the central bank’s justification for its end-of-the-week monetary policy move. Although the governor’s remarks have reflected his more dovish bias (greater concern for the production gap than potential), the Board could place greater weight on the recent upward shift in expectations and possible contamination of inflationary pressures from commodity price increases, as the commodity price index has risen 40% over the last 12 months.

Monetary Curves


David Franco [email protected]+52 55 5621 9616




Strategic Outlook

Monetary Curves

Exchange Rate

Stock Market

Corporate Debt

Technical Analysis

Bonos yield curve Long-term (10s/3s) curve slope

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

3 Y 5 Y 7 Y 10 Y 20 Y-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

daily change last month current

1 day-ch, pb%

156135

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10sw aps bonos

bp

Source: Bank of Mexico Source: Bank of Mexico

Bonos attractively valued vs. UdibonosThe Bonos-Udibonos spread in real terms has increased with rising implied inflation now at about 5.15%.

Appetite for the short-middle end of the Bonos curve continues, mainly reflecting investors’ transfer of risk premiums to the long end of the curve consistent with more dovish central bank remarks (see the Monetary Curves section for the details). In the real rate market, strong demand for Udibonos (the 10Y yield has decreased 35bp from its previous mid-November ’09 high) confirms a more aggressive positioning strategy ahead of the impact of tax provisions coming into force at the beginning of the year. In this context we see the rally as exhausted, making investing in Bonos more attractive.

For example, our calculation of the real Bonos-Udibonos spread (using long-term consensus inflation expectations as a deflator) indicates that short-term Bonos are more appealing than other maturities on the curve. The spread for the 3Y maturity is more than 100bp while at the long end (20Y) it is 65bp.

Debt Curves






Strategic Outlook

Monetary Curves

Debt Curves

Stock Market

Corporate Debt

Technical Analysis

Peso and US equities Implied volatility (1M)

600700800900

100011001200

Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10

9.810.811.812.813.814.815.8

S&P500 MXN

index MXN/USD

13.010

15

20

25

30

35

Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10

%


MXN set to break resistance levels Technical factors continue to underpin our view of greater MXN appreciation.

On balance, the external environment continues to fuel appetite for risk and we expect investors to focus on obtaining attractive returns through carry trades (short positions in currencies with low rates and long positions in currencies with high rates). This continues to make the MXN an attractive option, mainly due to the systemic risk content which held the currency back in recent months while other emerging market currencies, Latam ones included, posted gains. The favorable speculative position in the MXN on the CME (long contracts net of short ones) decreased again, albeit marginally so, during the week of January 5th to USD2.4mn, signaling an improvement in the local market’s technical position and also underpinning the currency’s appreciation trend. We see a strong probability of the MXN breaking below resistance levels at 12.60.

Exchange Rate




Market strategies. Relevant Charts

Yield curves

Change in the swaps zero-cupon curve and bonos


Swap spread Yield curve slope


10Y-Tbonos - 10Y-Treasury - peso depreciation (3Y) Daily benefit from Cetes position


Spreads on real yields: 3Y bonds and 3Y Udibonos

Exchange rate and 5 year moving average


DailyMexico


1.03.05.07.09.0

0 728 1456 2184 2912 3640

Sw aps zero-coupon curve Government

%, zero (182/360)

-10-505

1015

1Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10YYesterday Last w eek

0

25

50

75

12/08 03/09 05/09 08/09 10/09 01/10

TIIE 3Y minus Bonds 3Y TIIE 10Y minus Bonds 10Y

bp

050

100150200250

11/06 07/07 02/08 10/08 05/09-200

0

200

400

Mexico (10Y-3Y) (left) Treasury (10Y-2Y) (right)

bp bp

-2000

200400600800

11/06 07/07 02/08 10/08 05/09

200 day moving average100 day moving average

bp

-500-400-300

-200-100

0

0 91 182 273 364

Maturity (days)

Rol

l (bp

)

-500

50100150200250300

12/08 03/09 05/09 08/09 10/09 01/10

bp

9.510.511.512.513.514.515.516.5

01/05 01/06 01/07 01/08 01/09 01/10

MXN / USD




Strategic Outlook

Monetary Curves

Debt Curves

Exchange Rate

Corporate Debt

Technical Analysis


Main Stock Indices

Index Close D% 1D D% 1M D% YTD

LatinamericaLatam 4,260.28 -0.2% 4.3% 3.6%IPC 32,935.38 0.1% 3.2% 2.5%Bovespa 70,433.49 0.2% 1.7% 2.7%Merval 2,317.74 -1.5% 6.4% -0.1%IGPA 17,264.89 0.4% 7.7% 3.8%

United States & EuropeDow Jones 10,663.99 0.4% 1.8% 2.3%S&P 500 1,146.98 0.2% 3.7% 2.9%FTSE 5,538.07 0.1% 5.3% 2.3%IBEX 12,074.50 0.0% 3.9% 1.1%DAX 6,040.50 0.0% 4.9% 1.4%

Asia and GEMsNikkei 10,798.32 0.0% 6.8% 2.4%Shanghai Ashare 3,369.44 0.5% -1.1% -2.0%GEMS 1,016.41 0.2% 5.3% 3.7%Source: BBVA Bancomer, Market Strategies for Latin America

Operation Figures of the IPCIPCLast Close 32,935.38 Previous Close 32,892.04 Change (Pts) 43.34 Change (%) 0.13%Trading (# Shares) 213,463,072Trading ($Pesos) 7,689,891,634Trading (US$) 603,801,224

StocksUp 31Down 44Unchange 11Total 86Source: BBVA Bancomer, Market Strategies for Latin America

Markets close virtually flat Optimism ahead of US earnings reports. Heineken buys Femsa Cerveza. Alfa provides 4Q09 earnings guidance. Oma’s passenger traffic still weak.

Despite a very volatile session, markets closed with marginal gains on upbeat US earnings expectations. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 rose 0.43% and 0.17%, respectively, while the Nasdaq lost 0.21%. The IPC inched up 0.13%.

Yesterday Femsa announced an agreement with Heineken to transform the operations of Femsa Cerveza into a 20% stake in Heineken. The transaction will take place via shares and should be completed in the first half of 2010. Also yesterday, Alfa announced 4Q09 earnings guidance. Once again the company expects strong growth YoY in sales and EBITDA of 14% and 76%, respectively. We believe the recovery in the car industry and operating efficiencies achieved in 2009 are the main Q4 catalysts. We view the news as positive and do not rule out bigger gains in the share price.

Finally, Oma reported a 9.9% YoY drop in December total passenger traffic. Aviacsa’s suspension continues to have a negative impact on the airline’s passenger traffic, as reflected in a 10.5% YoY drop in domestic passenger traffic while international traffic was down 7.4%.

Source: Infosel, Bloomberg, BMV.

Stock Market


IPC Performance of MSCI Indices


IPC: EV/EBITDA 12M FWD IPC: P/E 12M FWD


IPC: P/BV 12M Trailing Average returns of the IPC companies


Market Strategies. Stock MarketDailyMexico


10000130001600019000220002500028000310003400037000

01/07 06/07 11/07 03/08 08/08 01/09 06/09 10/09

Points

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

01/07 06/07 11/07 03/08 08/08 01/09 06/09 10/09

Latinamerica Brazil M exico

%

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

01/05 11/05 08/06 06/07 03/08 01/09 10/09

x

9.011.013.015.017.019.021.023.025.0

01/05 11/05 08/06 06/07 03/08 01/09 10/09

x

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

01/05 11/05 08/06 06/07 03/08 01/09 10/09

x

0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Equity Assets Invested Capital

%




Strategic Outlook

Monetary Curves

Debt Curves

Exchange Rate

Stock Market

Technical Analysis


Edgar [email protected]+52 55 5621 9774

Fitch upgrades Ford Motors to B- from CCC with a positive outlook Grupo Collado bondholders accept company’s restructuring proposals.

Fitch upgraded Ford’s debt rating to B- from CCC and maintained its positive outlook. The move follows an improvement in the economic outlook, a positive trend in costs, revenues and profit margins, and Ford’s liquidity position and cash flow generation which Fitch expects to be positive in 2010.

Grupo Collado informed that bondholders have accepted the company’s restructuring proposals. Bonds will now mature in 2015 and be payable in 12 quarterly amortizations. The interest rate payable on both issues will be the 28d TIIE +450bp, group subsidiaries will be solidary debtors and collateral will be the same as for the banks.

Source: Fitch and BMV communiqués.

Corporate Debt




Strategic Outlook

Monetary Curves

Debt Curves

Exchange Rate

Stock Market

Corporate Debt


Alejandro Fuentes Pé[email protected]+52 55 5621 9705

IPC Daily Chart Dow Jones Daily Chart


Markets move sideways A lateral session for the IPC.

The IPC began Monday’s session lower, due mainly to a strong loss in Femsa. However, the index continued to respect its 10-day moving average at 32,700pts and subsequently rebounded from initial gains driven mostly by Walmex and Amx.

It should be pointed out that the IPC has traded in a 32,600-33,080 range for the last 5 sessions, or a difference of 1.47%.

The IPC is still trying to break past 33,000pts, which should occur if it reaches 33,350pts. In the coming sessions we could see a 32,700-33,350 trading range.

The Dow Jones and the S&P are also trying to stage an upside break, which could occur if the Dow moves above 10,700pts and the S&P, above 1,160pts.

Previous recommendation (January 11, 2010): Having recorded a new historical high, the IPC could approach levels of 33,900pts, which is the projected upside from its 1,100pt trading range (31,700-32,600) over the last month.

Technical Analysis


PAGE 11


No part of this report may be copied, conveyed or distributed into the countries in which distribution is prohibited by law, or furnished to any person or entity in those countries. The failure to comply with these restrictions may breach the laws of the relevant jurisdiction.PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND OTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS REPORT

Schedule of economic indicatorsEstimated Previous

Date Country Period Indicator Unit ActualBBVA

Bancomer1 Cosensus PriorPrevious

Year11-Jan-09 MX november Trade balance USD mn -195.2 92.9 -2959.3

12-Jan-10 USA november Trade balance USD mn -34.6 -32.9 -43.2

14-Jan-09 MX october IGAE -5.5 -4.6 -5.5 92.9

14-Jan-10 USA december Retail sales 0.5 1.3 -2.6

15-Jan-10 USA december Inflation % monthly 0.2 0.4 -0.8

15-Jan-10 USA december Industrial Production 0.5 0.8 -2.3

15-Jan-10 USA januaryConsumer confidence (Univ. Mich.) index 74.0 72.5 61.2

19-Jan-10 USA january NAHB survey index 17.0 16.0 8.0

22-Jan-10 MX january Inflation % Bi weekly 0.7 0.3 0.2

22-Jan-10 MX january Trade balance USD mn -800.0 2068.91 Economic Studies CenterSource: BBVA Global Markets Research, S.A.

Appendix 1


PAGE 12



Goverment debt

SecurityDays to

maturityLast yield

Daily change

Most recent auction

CetesCetes 28d 28 4.50 0 4.50Cetes 91d 91 4.62 -1 4.65Cetes 182d 182 4.85 0 4.90Cetes 364d 364 4.94 -2 5.07

Bonds21-Jun-12 892 6.27 -3 6.3019-Jun-14 1620 7.06 -4 7.4517-Dec-15 2166 7.41 -313-Dec-18 3258 7.85 -4 7.8131-May-29 7080 8.50 0 8.4418-Nov-38 10538 8.70 0 8.67

Bondes183 - 728 0.100 0

729 - 1092 0.100 01093 - UP 0.100 0

Udibonds20-Jun-12 891 1.32 7 1.6818-Dec-14 1802 2.31 014-Dec-17 2894 3.05 213-Jun-19 3440 3.28 -1 3.364-Dec-25 5806 3.61 022-Nov-35 9446 3.98 0 4.06Source: BBVA Global Markets Research, S.A.

IPAB Debt

Security Days to maturity Last spread Daily change

IP (monthly coupon)29 - 56 0.180 0.00

56 - 100 0.180 0.00100 - 180 0.200 -1.00180 - 360 0.224 -0.30360 - 540 0.243 0.00540 - 750 0.252 0.00

750 - 1100 0.260 0.001100 - UP 0.260 0.00

IT (quartely coupon)401-600 0.263 0.00601-800 0.300 0.00

801-1001 0.352 0.001002-1183 0.365 0.001184-1365 0.383 0.001366-1547 0.394 0.00

IS (six-month coupon)

0-2000 0.390 0.002001-up 0.401 0.00

Source: BBVA Bancomer, Market Strategies for Latin America

US Treasury bonds and LIBOR rates

Security Days to maturityLast

yieldDaily

change

Bills3M 87 0.03 -26M 178 0.13 -2

Notes2Y 719 0.94 -35Y 1815 2.56 -3

Bonds10Y 3595 3.83 -130Y 10900 4.74 2

LIBOR benchmarks1M 30 0.44 203M 90 1.43 1186M 180 1.76 1341Y 365 2.00 105


Mexican Euro-and Global bonds

SecurityDays to

maturityLast

yieldDaily

changeCupon

Rate

UMS16-Jan-13 1101 3.99 -161 6.3815-Jan-14 1465 4.54 -136 5.8803-Mar-15 1877 4.89 -81 6.6315-Sep-16 2439 5.23 -72 11.3815-Jan-17 2561 5.25 -50 5.6330-Dec-19 3640 5.93 -74 8.1324-Sep-22 4639 5.99 -64 8.0015-May-26 5968 6.40 -74 11.5015-Aug-31 7886 6.60 -45 8.3008-Apr-33 8488 6.56 -43 7.5027-Sep-34 9025 6.50 -36 6.75


Market Closing Prices 1/2

Appendix 2


PAGE 13



Market Closing Prices 2/2Exchange ratesCurrency Level Absolute changeMXN /USD Close 12.7360 3.9

High 12.7123 -9.7Low 12.5736 -10.7Fix 12.6692 -5.5

USD / EUR Close 1.4512 1.0BRL / USD Close 1.7373 1.1JPY / USD Close 92.0935 -56.3CLP / USD Close 489.5498 -390.0


MexDer Futures Contract Days to maturity Closing price Daily changeTIIEEN10 9 4.93 1FB10 37 4.94 -1MR10 65 4.99 -1AB10 100 5.13 -2MY10 128 5.17 -2JN10 156 5.31 -4JL10 191 5.46 0AG10 219 5.52 5SP10 246 5.67 -3OC10 282 5.88 -3NV10 310 5.96 -9DC10 338 6.04 -8CETES 91DEN10 8 4.61 -2FB10 36 4.73 -2MR10 64 4.83 -3AB10 99 4.97 -3MY10 127 5.04 1JN10 155 4.98 1JL10 190 4.93 -6AG10 218 4.88 -9SP10 245 4.87 -6OC10 281 4.93 -1NV10 309 5.08 -3MXN EUAEN10 7 12.79 8FB10 35 12.82 8MR10 60 12.88 9AB10 98 12.84 -1MY10 126 12.93 4JN10 154 12.97 4JL10 189 12.97 -1AG10 217 13.07 4SP10 245 13.12 4OC10 280 13.18 4NV10 305 13.23 3DC10 336 13.29 4Source: BBVA Bancomer, Market Strategies for Latin America

Interest-rate swaps and forward points Fixed-for-floating swaps

Contract Days to maturityFixed -for-

floating swap Daily change3 X 1 84 4.95 06 X 1 168 5.06 013 X 1 364 5.39 -426 X 1 728 6.11 -339 X 1 1092 6.67 -265 X 1 1820 7.45 -191 X 1 2548 7.83 -1130 X 1 3640 8.23 -1260 X 1 7280 8.71 -1Source: BBVA Bancomer, Market Strategies for Latin America

Forward points

Tenor PointsDaily

change Peso yieldDaily

change1W 88 5 4.37 01M 453 50 4.37 03M 1305 20 4.45 -26M 2738 38 4.96 49M 4285 45 5.54 51Y 5953 -17 21.26 15282Y 12950 100 1965.58 -3213Y 19088 50 3080.09 -3564Y 25375 0 4285.72 -655Y 31550 -190 5582.04 -1155


Reference ratesLast Daily change

Funding Rate 4.52 0Banking Funding Rate 4.61 0TIIE 28D 4.93 0TIIE 91D 5.10 0Fed Funds 0.25 0


Equity Indices and oil pricesIndices Closing level Daily changeDJIA 10663.99 0.4%Nasdaq 2312.41 -0.2%S&P 500 1146.98 0.2%IPC 32935.38 0.1%Mexican mix 76.43 0.12WTI 82.52 -0.23Source: BBVA Bancomer, Market Strategies for Latin America

EMBI Global (Relevant countries)

Country SOT SOT -1Daily

changeMexico 184 181 3Chile 98 97 1Brazil 187 192 -5Colombia 186 190 -4Russia 189 191 -2South Africa 160 162 -2


Inflation and Mexican UDIGeneral December CoreBi-weekly 0.22 0.19Monthly 0.41 0.50Annual 3.55 4.46UDI 11/01/10 4.35


Appendix 2


PAGE 14



Closing prices of BMV issuersClose # Shares Market Growths %

Stock 11-01-10 (mills) Cap. (mills) 12M High 12M Low 1 Day 1 Week 1 M 6 M 12 M YTDIPC 32,935.38 --- --- 33,064.57 16,929.80 +0.1 +0.5 +3.2 +39.2 +51.5 +2.5Food +1.5 +3.3 +3.7 +33.1 +55.5 +32.9Alsea * 9.98 601 6,000.5 10.24 3.20 -1.6 -2.2 +2.9 +43.4 +64.1 -1.1Bachoco B 24.90 600 14,940.0 26.00 11.85 -2.2 -0.4 +0.4 +2.0 +54.5 -0.4Bafar B 14.30 308 4,409.6 14.52 13.00 +0.0 +0.0 +10.0 +4.4 -1.5 +0.0Bimbo A 90.87 1,176 106,844.9 91.96 39.90 +3.0 +3.6 +2.4 +39.5 +58.8 +5.0Gmodern * 78.00 72 5,645.7 84.00 76.50 +0.0 +0.0 +0.0 +2.0 -7.1 +0.0Gruma B 26.86 564 15,139.7 27.28 3.67 -1.5 +12.9 +9.5 +79.7 +279.9 +16.4Herdez * 17.50 428 7,481.4 17.50 11.00 +0.0 +0.0 +7.4 +21.5 +40.0 +0.0Maseca B 10.25 918 9,413.7 10.25 7.45 +1.5 +3.0 +10.2 +25.0 +16.5 +3.2Minsa B 7.50 427 3,199.2 7.50 4.30 +0.0 +0.0 +10.3 +21.0 +21.0 +0.0Beverages -6.6 -9.4 -5.8 +42.0 +49.0 +32.0Arca * 41.92 806 33,788.3 43.70 23.33 -2.3 -3.6 -1.8 +35.4 +58.2 -3.4Contal * 33.00 750 24,750.0 34.00 20.00 +0.5 -2.1 +4.1 +32.6 +45.1 -0.2Femsa UBD 54.84 3,578 196,229.9 64.39 30.49 -13.1 -14.8 -12.6 +30.6 +36.3 -12.5Geupec B 51.00 176 8,992.2 51.00 42.00 +0.0 +0.0 +2.0 +17.2 +0.0 +0.0Gmodelo C 69.20 3,233 223,748.5 73.49 36.88 -2.2 -5.6 -3.3 +55.4 +67.1 -5.2Kof L 77.47 1,847 143,050.7 86.71 40.96 -6.2 -10.1 -2.3 +44.9 +46.2 -10.0Retail +2.1 +3.4 +7.7 +46.5 +61.2 +38.0Comerci UBC 11.16 1,086 12,119.8 11.85 2.50 -2.6 -0.9 +0.8 +37.8 +223.5 +1.5Elektra * 697.19 244 170,200.2 703.96 278.28 +3.5 +8.5 +12.0 +32.8 +37.9 +8.5Fragua B 129.99 101 13,178.8 130.00 79.90 +0.0 +0.0 +14.0 +52.9 +32.6 +0.0Gfamsa A 28.45 439 12,502.3 29.63 4.24 -1.2 +8.1 +10.4 +118.7 +257.0 +12.7Gigante * 18.50 994 18,393.3 18.95 11.89 -2.4 -2.4 +19.4 +33.1 +43.4 -2.2Soriana B 33.96 1,800 61,128.0 35.88 18.94 +1.2 +4.4 -3.0 +23.6 +24.9 +3.6Sab * 25.50 265 6,768.2 27.60 17.00 +0.0 +0.0 +0.0 +4.1 -7.6 +0.0Walmex V 60.73 8,374 508,569.1 60.73 27.63 +2.3 +2.0 +7.5 +56.4 +78.4 +3.5Transport -1.4 +0.9 +10.8 +34.0 +45.1 +3.8Asur B 70.63 300 21,189.0 73.22 36.87 -2.8 -0.5 +4.0 +43.1 +47.1 +4.0Gap B 43.06 561 24,156.7 43.48 22.49 -0.2 +2.0 +17.0 +25.0 +52.3 +5.9Oma B 22.45 398 8,943.1 22.98 12.53 -1.2 +1.1 +12.1 +38.9 +24.0 +1.5Telecoms +1.0 +0.6 +1.3 +22.3 +26.7 +22.1Amx L 31.73 32,272 1,023,985.3 31.99 18.32 +1.2 +0.9 +4.0 +21.1 +46.3 +3.1Axtel CPO 13.25 1,253 16,599.1 13.25 4.43 +0.9 +5.1 +10.5 +91.5 +75.7 +11.7Cel * 48.99 125 6,135.5 56.50 12.40 +2.3 -5.8 -2.0 +11.3 +99.1 -5.4Telint L 11.62 18,012 209,297.7 11.96 5.19 +2.4 -1.4 +0.6 +46.7 +44.7 -0.1Telmex L 10.49 18,191 190,822.4 13.14 9.83 -1.1 -4.9 -10.7 +0.7 -19.2 -4.3Media -0.3 -2.9 -1.3 +20.6 +29.2 -17.3Cie B 6.75 559 3,775.5 9.45 5.68 +0.0 +0.0 -0.7 +18.2 -28.6 +0.0Tlevisa CPO 52.61 2,834 149,073.0 56.67 33.91 -0.4 -3.4 -2.0 +17.0 +28.8 -3.0Tvaztca CPO 7.19 2,914 20,951.5 7.28 4.31 +0.0 +0.6 +3.9 +43.2 +38.3 +1.3Housing -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 +38.2 +56.6 -33.2Ara * 9.13 1,305 11,914.0 9.74 3.45 -0.2 -1.0 -1.6 +74.2 +77.6 +0.2Geo B 34.94 544 19,022.9 41.44 12.22 -0.9 -0.9 -0.3 +42.5 +107.2 +0.5Hogar B 1.40 559 782.9 2.18 0.87 -0.7 -1.4 -2.8 +16.7 +19.7 -2.1Homex * 73.63 336 24,726.4 95.59 26.06 +1.5 -0.4 -6.4 +20.0 +41.3 +0.2Sare B 4.79 383 1,834.1 5.76 1.23 -1.4 -1.8 -5.3 +29.1 +69.9 -1.0Urbi * 28.91 976 28,229.0 30.43 10.91 -3.6 -1.5 +1.3 +42.2 +38.7 -1.6Cement & Construction +0.9 +0.7 +6.6 +63.1 +49.6 -28.9Cemex CPO 15.83 9,611 152,146.7 18.70 5.98 +0.5 -0.5 +8.7 +47.5 +15.5 +1.6Cicsa B-1 8.25 2,579 21,276.9 8.29 5.93 -0.1 -0.5 +8.6 +34.1 +35.9 +2.0Cmoctez * 31.50 880 27,729.8 33.50 17.10 +4.1 -1.6 -4.5 +22.1 +45.2 +5.0Gcc * 45.00 328 14,739.1 46.00 26.00 -2.2 -2.2 +7.4 +32.4 +50.5 +2.3Ica * 31.94 643 20,533.2 35.49 18.80 -1.2 +2.6 +0.3 +55.0 +33.9 +4.8Ideal B-1 14.60 3,000 43,802.2 14.60 6.36 +3.5 +7.4 +9.4 +43.8 +80.7 +9.7Conglomerates -0.7 +1.0 +2.9 +48.8 +55.0 +3.1Alfa A 86.73 559 48,516.9 87.45 16.50 +1.4 -0.8 +4.3 +129.7 +185.6 +4.0Gcarso A1 42.10 2,324 97,828.5 47.41 27.25 -1.8 +2.1 +1.3 +25.8 +26.7 +5.3Gissa * 2.60 298 775.3 4.70 2.36 +0.0 +0.0 +0.0 +0.0 -44.7 +0.0Kuo B 12.00 456 5,476.4 12.00 3.98 +0.0 +4.3 +20.0 +105.1 +182.4 +9.1Pasa B 14.61 134 1,955.5 15.50 6.69 +0.0 -5.7 +0.0 +21.8 +53.8 -5.7Vitro A 7.85 387 3,036.8 8.24 3.80 -0.9 -2.0 +7.5 +55.4 +2.6 -4.7Consumption -2.7 -5.6 +1.9 +15.4 +21.3 +9.0Kimber A 55.39 1,077 54,711.3 60.85 41.07 -2.7 -5.5 +2.1 +16.5 +23.8 -5.4Lab B 31.99 529 54,711.3 32.76 6.80 -1.9 +4.4 +14.5 +183.6 +220.5 +11.1Mining & Petrochemical +0.6 +2.8 +6.9 +101.0 +162.7 +184.6Autlan B 32.20 271 8,740.6 33.34 17.68 -0.8 +5.6 +3.1 +34.0 +2.5 +4.1Gmexico B 31.72 7,785 246,940.2 31.82 7.78 +0.4 +1.1 +5.7 +124.6 +231.6 +5.7Mexchem * 28.78 1,800 51,804.0 28.78 8.26 +0.9 +10.1 +16.9 +83.5 +139.8 +15.2Pe&oles * 297.94 397 118,423.9 311.04 119.63 +1.2 +3.0 +4.8 +65.5 +94.4 +6.8Steel -1.0 -6.3 -6.8 +20.6 +32.7 +0.7Ich B 43.15 436 18,825.5 49.10 28.40 -0.4 -7.0 -6.8 +11.4 +15.2 -5.8Simec B 35.01 498 17,424.8 38.00 17.97 -1.7 -5.6 -6.9 +32.3 +53.4 -2.4Financials -1.7 -0.7 +3.7 +32.1 +57.7 +45.7Bolsa A 16.51 593 9,790.2 17.64 7.59 -2.7 +6.7 +4.2 +42.2 +58.1 +6.7Gfinbur O 41.19 3,334 137,307.4 43.06 28.11 -0.3 +4.0 +8.8 +21.7 +31.7 +8.0Gfnorte O 46.04 2,018 92,924.7 50.44 13.37 -2.7 -4.0 -1.3 +44.6 +89.3 -3.8Source: BBVA Bancomer, Market Strategies for Latin America

Appendix 3


PAGE 15



Valuation of BMV issuersClose # Shares Market P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA

Stock 11-01-10 (mills) Cap. (mills) 12M 3Y Avg. Disc.% 12M 3Y Avg. Disc.% 12M 3Y Avg. Disc.%IPC 32,935.38 --- --- 23.2 16.5 40.4 3.0 3.1 -3.2 9.5 8.4 14.1Food -62.7 2.6 -2540.1 2.1 1.8 17.1 8.5 8.2 3.2Alsea 9.98 601 6,000.5 3393.9 255.3 1229.5 2.1 2.6 -19.8 8.4 8.4 -0.1Bachoco 24.90 600 14,940.0 -52.0 1.6 -3249.7 1.0 1.0 4.1 7.0 6.9 1.3Bafar 14.30 308 4,409.6 29.8 20.3 46.7 1.7 1.8 -6.6 10.5 11.5 -8.2Bimbo 90.87 1,176 106,844.9 19.6 18.7 4.4 2.8 2.6 6.9 10.1 9.2 9.3Gmodern 78.00 72 5,645.7 9.1 14.4 -36.7 1.3 1.7 -20.4 5.8 8.1 -29.0Gruma 26.86 564 15,139.7 -1.5 4.5 -132.6 2.2 1.1 93.8 6.0 6.5 -8.7Herdez 17.50 428 7,481.4 13.7 14.7 -7.1 2.9 2.8 2.1 8.5 8.6 -1.0Maseca 10.25 918 9,413.7 10.3 14.1 -27.1 1.3 1.3 -1.5 6.1 7.5 -18.2Minsa 7.50 427 3,199.2 46.8 22.6 107.4 1.4 0.9 53.8 7.7 5.9 30.3Beverages 24.0 17.9 34.3 2.6 2.4 11.4 9.0 8.3 9.2Arca 41.92 806 33,788.3 12.4 11.3 8.8 2.1 2.2 -2.7 7.2 6.3 14.4Contal 33.00 750 24,750.0 12.9 11.0 17.2 2.8 2.3 21.4 8.1 6.6 21.9Femsa 54.84 3,578 196,229.9 29.4 21.2 38.6 2.5 2.4 5.9 8.5 8.4 0.7Geupec 51.00 176 8,992.2 45.2 30.7 47.3 3.3 2.9 14.1 11.8 10.2 16.0Gmodelo 69.20 3,233 223,748.5 27.2 18.8 44.5 3.1 2.6 19.4 11.0 8.8 24.1Kof 77.47 1,847 143,050.7 21.9 16.3 34.7 2.2 2.0 13.7 8.0 7.6 4.4Retail 34.3 22.3 53.9 4.1 3.4 21.1 17.8 13.4 33.2Comerci 11.16 1,086 12,119.8 -2.3 7.3 -131.1 0.9 1.1 -20.0 6.0 7.0 -15.3Elektra 697.19 244 170,200.2 21.2 14.7 43.9 5.0 3.9 29.0 33.7 17.7 90.3Fragua 129.99 101 13,178.8 20.9 17.1 21.8 3.2 3.3 -1.5 16.9 13.4 25.9Gfamsa 28.45 439 12,502.3 20.5 20.5 -0.2 1.4 1.7 -15.9 14.7 11.3 29.4Gigante 18.50 994 18,393.3 16.6 12.4 33.8 1.1 1.0 2.9 10.6 8.6 22.8Soriana 33.96 1,800 61,128.0 28.6 22.8 25.8 2.0 2.0 -3.0 11.2 11.0 2.3Sab 25.50 265 6,768.2 12.0 10.5 13.7 1.0 1.4 -30.5 8.2 8.0 2.9Walmex 60.73 8,374 508,569.1 31.8 24.8 28.4 6.5 5.3 22.2 19.1 15.2 25.7Transport 21.9 21.3 3.1 1.1 1.0 12.9 10.6 9.3 14.1Asur 70.63 300 21,189.0 25.0 22.8 9.6 1.5 1.1 38.4 10.5 8.5 24.5Gap 43.06 561 24,156.7 19.0 18.7 1.7 0.9 0.9 4.6 11.1 9.8 13.2Oma 22.45 398 8,943.1 25.2 54.0 -53.3 1.2 1.3 -9.1 9.5 9.2 3.0Telecoms 15.1 14.3 5.8 4.3 4.9 -11.6 7.3 7.4 -1.9Amx 31.73 32,272 1,023,985.3 14.0 17.1 -17.9 5.5 7.0 -20.6 7.3 8.7 -16.3Axtel 13.25 1,253 16,599.1 -21.0 41.6 -150.6 2.0 2.3 -11.3 6.1 7.5 -18.8Cel 48.99 125 6,135.5 -2.0 -8.5 -76.6 -6.2 3.4 -285.7 8.8 10.4 -15.6Telmex 10.49 18,191 190,822.4 10.3 8.6 20.7 4.3 4.2 2.8 5.3 5.2 0.8Media 21.6 19.9 8.6 3.4 3.9 -10.9 8.5 8.4 1.2Cie 6.75 559 3,775.5 -4.0 38.8 -110.4 1.1 2.1 -46.4 7.4 9.0 -17.0Tlevisa 52.61 2,834 149,073.0 19.5 18.2 6.9 3.6 3.9 -9.6 8.9 8.8 1.1Tvaztca 7.19 2,914 20,951.5 15.9 25.3 -36.9 3.9 4.5 -14.6 6.9 6.4 7.5Housing 15.2 15.1 0.7 1.6 2.4 -31.7 10.0 9.5 5.3Ara 9.13 1,305 11,914.0 16.8 11.8 42.8 1.4 1.7 -19.4 11.8 7.9 48.8Geo 34.94 544 19,022.9 12.4 12.8 -2.8 1.8 2.5 -28.4 8.0 9.0 -10.4Hogar 1.40 559 782.9 -5.8 -7.6 -24.2 3.2 2.8 14.2 -11.9 2.0 -693.5Homex 73.63 336 24,726.4 17.7 16.9 4.2 2.0 3.0 -35.4 10.1 9.7 4.4Sare 4.79 383 1,834.1 5.6 9.3 -40.3 0.4 1.2 -64.0 7.7 7.7 0.3Urbi 28.91 976 28,229.0 15.1 17.3 -13.1 1.7 2.6 -35.5 11.1 11.0 1.1Cement & Construction -1095.9 132.7 -925.7 1.1 1.5 -29.5 10.5 9.1 15.9Cemex 15.83 9,611 152,146.7 -28.9 1.2 -2610.4 0.7 1.1 -37.7 9.7 7.9 22.8Cicsa 8.25 2,579 21,276.9 23.8 50.4 -52.8 2.3 2.7 -15.1 15.0 20.4 -26.4Cmoctez 31.50 880 27,729.8 13.5 13.8 -2.0 3.1 2.9 10.2 9.8 8.2 20.0Gcc 45.00 328 14,739.1 20.9 12.1 72.5 1.2 1.6 -27.0 9.0 9.0 -0.6Ica 31.94 643 20,533.2 30.8 17.2 79.2 1.2 1.7 -30.1 10.9 14.2 -23.5Ideal 14.60 3,000 43,802.2 -1176.4 -110.4 965.4 4.0 4.1 -4.1 28.3 38.1 -25.8Pinfra 29.43 373 10,974.9 15.2 22.7 -33.2 4.5 7.1 -36.4 9.2 7.6 20.9Conglomerates -16.1 3.6 -543.1 1.7 1.5 12.2 9.4 7.6 22.4Alfa 86.73 559 48,516.9 -5.2 6.5 -179.3 1.5 1.0 51.0 7.0 5.9 18.2Kuo 12.00 456 5,476.4 -4.5 -12.0 -62.4 1.0 0.7 48.5 5.3 5.6 -6.1Gcarso 42.10 2,324 97,828.5 13.6 10.2 33.3 2.0 2.1 -6.6 12.3 10.3 19.9Gissa 2.60 298 775.3 -1.7 13.1 -113.1 0.1 0.6 -74.6 3.8 5.8 -33.6Pasa 14.61 134 1,955.5 -19.3 29.9 -164.6 1.2 1.7 -31.4 6.7 8.3 -19.4Vitro 7.85 387 3,036.8 -0.5 -33.2 -98.4 12.0 1.9 520.1 13.9 6.7 107.3Consumption 16.9 14.9 13.3 7.9 6.9 14.6 8.3 8.2 0.8Kimber 55.39 1,077 59,631.8 16.9 14.9 13.6 7.9 6.9 15.0 8.3 8.2 0.8Mining & Petrochemical 39.3 13.4 192.3 3.8 3.0 28.0 14.1 6.2 126.9Autlan 32.20 271 8,740.6 -12.9 16.4 -179.1 3.4 3.0 16.2 14.3 9.0 59.0Gmexico 31.72 7,785 246,940.2 27.2 10.4 162.8 3.6 2.4 46.1 14.3 5.3 170.6Mexchem 28.78 1,800 51,804.0 65.4 52.3 25.0 3.8 3.2 19.6 9.0 7.9 14.0Pe&oles 297.94 397 118,423.9 78.9 22.4 252.5 4.4 4.1 6.8 17.2 10.6 62.6Steel 17.2 10.2 68.6 0.9 1.1 -21.1 9.3 5.3 76.0Ich 43.15 436 18,825.5 21.4 10.2 111.0 0.8 1.0 -16.8 8.1 4.9 66.3Simec 35.01 498 17,424.8 14.2 10.4 37.0 0.9 1.2 -23.7 11.2 5.8 92.1Financials 17.5 16.5 5.7 2.6 2.4 7.8 -- -- --Gfinbur 41.19 3,334 137,307.4 20.9 25.5 -17.9 2.3 2.3 0.4 -- -- --Gfnorte 46.04 2,018 92,924.7 16.5 12.3 34.4 2.2 2.4 -8.3 -- -- --Source: BBVA Bancomer, Market Strategies for Latin America

Appendix 4


PAGE 16



Technical levels of BMV issuersTechnical Levels

StockClose

11-01-101 Week

High1 Week

Low Pivot1st.

Support2nd.

Support1st.

Resist.2nd.

Resist.10 Day

Mov.Avg.3 Day

Mov.Avg.12M High

12 MLow

IPC 32,935.38 33,064.57 32,732.76 32,910.90 32,757.24 32,579.09 33,089.05 33,242.71 32,652.94 32,253.24 33,064.57 16,929.80 Alfa A 86.73 86.77 85.56 86.35 85.94 85.14 87.15 87.56 84.88 83.40 87.45 16.50 Alsea * 9.98 10.21 9.98 10.1 9.9 9.8 10.1 10.3 10.1 9.8 10.24 3.20 Amx L 31.73 31.73 31.15 31.54 31.34 30.96 31.92 32.12 31.16 30.79 31.99 18.32 Ara * 9.13 9.22 9.13 9.2 9.1 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.74 3.45 Asur B 70.63 73.22 70.63 71.49 69.77 68.90 72.36 74.08 70.41 68.95 73.22 36.87 Axtel CPO 13.25 13.25 12.79 13.1 12.9 12.6 13.4 13.6 12.5 12.1 13.25 4.43 Bachoco B 24.90 25.45 24.90 25.08 24.72 24.53 25.27 25.63 25.01 24.79 26.00 11.85 Bafar B 14.30 14.30 14.30 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.2 13.4 14.52 13.00 Bimbo A 90.87 90.87 87.88 89.87 88.88 86.88 91.87 92.86 88.20 89.33 91.96 39.90 Cel * 48.99 51.81 47.88 49.6 47.3 45.6 51.2 53.5 51.0 51.0 56.50 12.40 Cemex CPO 15.83 15.95 15.75 15.84 15.74 15.64 15.94 16.04 15.79 15.13 18.70 5.98 Cie B 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 9.45 5.68 Cmoctez * 31.50 32.00 30.25 31.25 30.50 29.50 32.25 33.00 31.18 32.07 33.50 17.10 Comerci UBC 11.16 11.46 11.16 11.3 11.1 11.0 11.4 11.6 11.2 11.1 11.85 2.50 Contal * 33.00 34.00 32.85 33.28 32.57 32.13 33.72 34.43 33.38 32.26 34.00 20.00 Kuo B 12.00 12.00 11.50 11.8 11.7 11.3 12.2 12.3 11.5 10.6 12.00 3.98 Elektra * 697.19 697.19 632.54 675.64 654.09 610.99 718.74 740.29 655.12 651.64 703.96 278.28 Femsa UBD 54.84 63.97 54.84 57.9 51.8 48.8 60.9 67.0 62.2 61.7 64.39 30.49 Fragua B 129.99 129.99 129.99 129.99 129.99 129.99 129.99 129.99 129.99 122.00 130.00 79.90 Gcarso A1 42.10 42.85 41.13 42.0 41.2 40.3 42.9 43.7 41.3 41.7 47.41 27.25 Gcc * 45.00 46.00 45.00 45.33 44.67 44.33 45.67 46.33 45.50 43.43 46.00 26.00 Geo B 34.94 35.68 34.81 35.1 34.6 34.3 35.5 36.0 35.0 35.1 41.44 12.22 Geupec B 51.00 51.00 51.00 51.00 51.00 51.00 51.00 51.00 50.90 50.30 51.00 42.00 Gfinbur O 41.19 41.71 39.93 40.9 40.2 39.2 42.0 42.7 40.0 39.3 43.06 28.11 Gfnorte O 46.04 47.87 46.04 46.65 45.43 44.82 47.26 48.48 47.53 46.94 50.44 13.37 Gigante * 18.50 18.95 18.50 18.7 18.4 18.2 18.8 19.1 18.9 17.3 18.95 11.89 Gissa * 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 4.70 2.36 Gmexico B 31.72 31.82 31.25 31.6 31.4 31.0 31.9 32.2 30.9 30.3 31.82 7.78 Gmodelo C 69.20 70.89 69.20 69.76 68.64 68.07 70.33 71.45 71.57 71.33 73.49 36.88 Gmodern * 78.00 78.00 78.00 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 84.00 76.50 Gruma B 26.86 27.28 23.99 26.04 24.81 22.75 28.10 29.33 24.54 24.22 27.28 3.67 Herdez * 17.50 17.50 17.50 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 16.9 17.50 11.00 Hogar B 1.40 1.41 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.39 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.42 2.18 0.87 Homex * 73.63 73.63 72.51 73.3 72.9 72.1 74.0 74.4 73.3 75.7 95.59 26.06 Ica * 31.94 32.34 30.98 31.75 31.17 30.39 32.53 33.11 31.33 31.33 35.49 18.80 Ich B 43.15 46.02 43.15 44.1 42.2 41.2 45.1 47.0 45.3 45.4 49.10 28.40 Kimber A 55.39 58.77 55.39 56.52 54.26 53.14 57.64 59.90 57.85 55.57 60.85 41.07 Kof L 77.47 84.53 77.47 79.8 75.1 72.8 82.2 86.9 84.4 80.9 86.71 40.96 Maseca B 10.25 10.25 10.00 10.17 10.08 9.92 10.33 10.42 10.00 9.71 10.25 7.45 Minsa B 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.1 7.50 4.30 Pe&oles * 297.94 297.94 283.45 293.11 288.28 278.62 302.77 307.60 289.23 290.77 311.04 119.63 Sab * 25.50 25.50 25.50 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.4 27.60 17.00 Sare B 4.79 4.86 4.71 4.79 4.71 4.64 4.86 4.94 4.83 4.92 5.76 1.23 Simec B 35.01 37.28 35.01 35.77 34.25 33.50 36.52 38.04 36.37 36.64 38.00 17.97 Soriana B 33.96 34.00 33.09 33.7 33.4 32.8 34.3 34.6 33.5 34.5 35.88 18.94 Telmex L 10.49 10.95 10.49 10.64 10.34 10.18 10.80 11.10 10.89 11.22 13.14 9.83 Tlevisa CPO 52.61 54.05 52.61 53.1 52.1 51.7 53.6 54.5 53.8 53.8 56.67 33.91 Tvaztca CPO 7.19 7.28 7.14 7.20 7.13 7.06 7.27 7.34 7.17 7.01 7.28 4.31 Urbi * 28.91 30.43 28.91 29.4 28.4 27.9 29.9 30.9 29.4 28.6 30.43 10.91 Vitro A 7.85 7.98 7.85 7.89 7.81 7.76 7.94 8.02 7.98 7.29 8.24 3.80 Walmex V 60.73 60.73 59.36 60.3 59.8 58.9 61.2 61.6 59.7 57.9 60.73 27.63


Appendix 5


PAGE 17



Appendix 6

Report on payouts by BMV issuersIssuer GSM

Date ex coupon Payment Coupon Description

AMX 07-Dec-09 10-Dec-09 26 Dividend: P$0.50ARCA 01-Dec-09 04-Dec-09 Dividend: P$0.40BAFAR 12-Jan-10 15-Jan-10 4 Extraordinary dividend: 1 new vs. 44.1583090593186 old.CMOCTEZ 10-Dec-09 15-Dec-09 14 Dividend: P$0.50FINDEP 29-Dec-09 11-Jan-10 5 Subscription: 0.1349206349 new vs. 1 old.

Price: P$10.00/sh. Period: From 24-Dec-09 to 11-Dec-10

GFMULTI 18-Dec-09 31-Dec-09 "Subscription: 1 new vs. 0.22465505 old. Price: P$5.8537/sh. Period: From 17-Dec-09 to 31-Dec-09"

GNP 11-Dec-09 16-Dec-09 2 Dividend: P$1.61 ICA 04-Dec-09 09-Dec-09 Exchange: 1 x 1KIMBER 30-Nov-09 03-Dec-09 24 Dividend: P$0.72 4 of 4MASECA 15-Dec-09 18-Dec-09 Dividend: P$0.75MEXCHEM Pending Pending Dividend: P$0.22 to be paid in four installments of P$0.055 each.OMA 12-Jan-10 15-Jan-10 Dividend: P$0.25 3 of 4OMA 12-Apr-10 15-Apr-10 Dividend: P$0.25 4 of 4TELMEX 14-Dec-09 17-Dec-09 52 Dividend: P$0.1150 3 of 4TELMEX 14-Dec-09 17-Dec-09 52 Extraordinary dividend: P$0.40TELMEX 23-Mar-10 26-Mar-10 Dividend: P$0.1150 4 of 4TLEVISA 17-Dec-09 22-Dec-09 Dividend: P$1.35/CPO.TMM 28-Dec-09 05-Jan-10 Subscription: 1.07 new vs. 1 old

Price: P$11.3719/sh. Period: From 22-Dec-09 to 05-Jan-10TVAZTCA 01-Dec-09 04-Dec-09 Dividend: P$0.07 per CPO (approximately)Source: BBVA Bancomer, Market Strategies for Latin America


Global Markets Research

DirectorAntonio [email protected]+34 91 374 31 81

Equity and Credit Investment Strategies for Mexico

DirectorRodrigo Ortega [email protected]+52 55 5621 9701

BanksErnesto M.Gabilondo Márquez [email protected]+52 55 5621 9702

Beverages, Consuption, Food and RetailFernando Olvera Espinosa de los Monteros [email protected]+52 55 5621 9804

Cement, Construction and HousingFrancisco Chávez Martínez [email protected]+52 55 5621 9703

Conglomerates, Mining, and TransportPablo Abraham Peregrina [email protected]+52 55 5621 9975

Media and TelecomAndrés Coello [email protected]+52 55 5621 9870

Technical AnalysisAlejandro Fuentes Pérez [email protected]+52 55 5621 9705

Corporate DebtEdgar Cruz Borges [email protected]+52 55 5621 9774

Fixed Income and Forex Investment Strategies for Latin America

DirectorJuan José García [email protected]+52 55 5621 9245

Fixed Income and Forex Strategy Mexico

Team Leader David Franco Segura [email protected]+52 55 5621 9616

Equity and Forex Strategies MexicoLiliana Solis [email protected] +52 55 5621 9877

Forex Strategy Latam

Team Leader Claudia Ceja Gonzalez [email protected]+52 55 5621 9715

Latam Fixed Income StrategyResponsibleAntonio Bassols Quiroz [email protected]+52 55 5621 9849


Global Markets Sales

ResponsibleOscar Alvarez de la [email protected]+52 55 5621 9994

Equity Sales

Responsible Juan Carlos Rodríguez Garcí[email protected]+52 55 5621 9940

Network Sales Institutional Sales Sales Trading

José Miguel Fonseca [email protected]+52 55 5621 9490

Victoria Mas [email protected]+52 55 5621 9871

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Stock Market Information Systems

DirectorElba Padilla Gonzá[email protected]+52 55 5621 9408

Josefina Godinez [email protected]+52 55 5621 9581

Roberto González [email protected]+52 55 5621 9641


IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

Analyst Certification

We, Francisco Chávez Martínez, Andrés Coello Ituarte, Alejandro Fuentes Pérez, Rodrigo Ortega Salazar, Fernando Olvera Espinosa de los Monteros, Pablo Abraham Peregrina, Ernesto Gabilondo Marquez, Edgar Cruz Borges, Juan José García Petit, David Franco Segura, Liliana Solis Angulo, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about the mentioned corporation(s) and its (their) securities. We also certify that we have not been, are not, and will not be receiving direct or indirect compensation in exchange for any specific recommendation in this report.

Company Country Sector Analyst BloombergALFA MEXICO Conglomerates Pablo Abraham Peregrina ALFAA MM

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ALFA

Rating History

RATING HISTORY - ALFA

Date Recommendation Fundamental Value Closing Price26/01/05 BUY Ps67.00 Ps56.1410/03/05 OUTPERFORM Ps72.00 Ps60.5907/04/06 BUY Ps73.97 Ps59.2510/07/06 BUY Ps71.70 Ps57.1910/11/06 BUY Ps85.20 Ps60.2605/03/07 OUTPERFORM Ps85.60 Ps69.9509/10/07 HOLD Ps94.70 Ps76.0116/11/07 OUTPERFORM Ps95.00 Ps70.0013/03/08 OUTPERFORM Ps83.40 Ps69.4908/06/09 OUTPERFORM Ps43.50 Ps37.7406/08/09 OUTPERFORM Ps62.00 Ps50.8418/11/09 OUTPERFORM Ps89.00 Ps73.04

Rating, target price and price history information for the companies that are the subject of this report are available at www.bancomer.com

Receipt of Compensation / Provision of Services current as of 12/21/09

Management or Co- Management of Public Offering. Within the past twelve months, BBVA Bancomer, S.A., Institución de Banca Múltiple, Grupo Financiero BBVA Bancomer (“BBVA Bancomer”), and/or its affiliates, have participated as manager or co-manager in public offerings, and received compensation for these services, of the company(ies), which is(are) the subject of this report: Banco Interacciones, BNP, Bimbo, Cemex, Comision Federal de Electricidad, Corporación Interamericana de Inversiones, Embotelladoras Arca, El Puerto de Liverpool, Ferrocarril Mexicano, GMAC, Hipotecaria su Casita, ICA, Maxcom, Megacable, Nemak, NRF(Nissan), Paccar, Pemex, Posadas, Ruba, Telmex Internacional, Toyota, Urbi, VWLease.Investment Banking Compensation. Within the past twelve months, BBVA Bancomer, and/or its affiliates, have received compensation for investment banking, common representation and credit related services from the Company/ies, which is(are) the subject of this report: Acciona, Aeromexico, Alsea, América Móvil, Avicola Pilgrim´s Pride de Mexico, Axtel, Bancomext, Banco de Credito e Inversiones, Banorte, Cemex, Cencosud, CIE, Cintra, Colbun, Comercial Mexicana, Comisión Federal de Electricidad, Concesionaria Mexiquense, Consorcio Comex, Controladora de Farmacias, Copamex, Coppel, Corporacion Geo, Corporativo Arca, Corporación Moctezuma, Credito Inmobiliario, Daimler Chrysler de México, Dine, El puerto de Liverpool, El palacio de Hierro, Empresas Cablevisión, Endesa (Chile), Facileasing, Factoring Corporativo, Farmacias Benavides, FCC, Femsa, Ferrosur, GEO, Gruma, Grupo Alfa, Grupo Ara, Grupo Brescia, Grupo Bimbo, Grupo Carso, Grupo Cementos de Chihuahua (GCC), Grupo Comercial Chedraui, Grupo Collado, Grupo Comercial Gomo, Grupo Dermet, Grupo Elektra, Grupo Famsa, Grupo Femsa, Grupo Scotiabank, Grupo Herdez, Grupo ICA, Grupo La Moderna, GMAC, Grupo Maseca, Grupo México, Grupo Posadas, Grupo Sanborns, Grupo TMM, Grupo Videomax, Grupo Xignux, Hilasal Mexicana, Homex, HSBC, Holcim (Apasco), Hylsamex, Imsa/Tarida/Ternium, Industrias Bachoco, Hipotecaria Casa Mexicana, Hipotecaria su Casita, Industrias CH, Industrias Peñoles, Inmobiliaria Ruba, Interceramic, Kansas City Southern de México, Kaupthing Bank, Lamosa, Liverpool, Mabe, Manufacturas Kaltex, Medica Sur, Megacable, Mexichem, Molymet, Municipio de Aguascalientes, Nadro, Nafin, OHL, NRF Mexico, Paccar, Pasa, Pemex, Petrotemex, Pimsa, Plavicom, Prolec GE, Ruba, Sare, Sears, Sigma, Simec, Scotia Bank Inverlat, Techint, Telefónica CTC, Teléfonos de México, Telint, Tenaris, Toyota, Urbi, Value, Volcan Cia Minera, VWLease.Expected Investment Banking and services Compensation. In the next three months, BBVA Bancomer, and/or any of its affiliates, expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking, common representation and credit related services from the company (ies) discussed in this report.

BBVA Bancomer acts as market maker/specialist in: MexDer Contrato de Futuros (Dólar de Estados Unidos de América (DEUA), TIIE de 28 días (TE28), Swap de TIIE, CETES de 91 días (CE91)), Bonos M, Bonos M3, Bonos M10, Indice de Precios y Cotizaciones de la BMV (IPC), Contrato de Opciones (IPC, Acciones América Móvil, Cemex, CPO, Femsa UBD, Gcarso A1, Telmex L).BBVA acts as market maker/specialist in Latibex: Alfa, AMX, Corporación Geo, Grupo Modelo, ICA, Sare, Telmex.


BBVA Bancomer, is recognized by Mexico´s Finance Ministry as a market improver and acts as a market maker/specialists in MEXDER, Mercado Mexicano de Derivados.

Ownership Positions

BBVA Bancomer, and/or its affiliates holds, directly or indirectly, at least 1 % of the equity capital of the following company/ies whose shares are open to negotiation in organized markets and which is(are) the subject of this report: CEMEX VENEZUELA, GAP, GRUPO AEROPORTUARIO CENTRO NORTE, GRUPO VIDEOVISA, PASA.BBVA Bancomer, and/or its affiliates hold(s), directly or indirectly; as of the end of the last quarter, at least a 10 % of it´s investment portfolio, or 10% of the amount issued, of the securities or underlying investments issued by the companies which is(are) the subject of this report: AXTEL, BOLSA, DECEVAL, PYP.

Other Disclosures

To the best of BBVA Bancomer´s knowledge, a Member of it´s Board, it´s CEO or Senior Manager holding a direct reporting position to BBVA Bancomer´s CEO holds a similar position in any of the following company/ies which is(are) the subject of this report: Alfa, Alsea, Asur, Bimbo, Cintra, CMR, Dine, Femsa, Gmodelo, Hogar, Invex, Kof, Kuo, Liverpool, Maseca, Oma, Peñoles, Tenaris, Tlevisa, Urbi, Vitro.

Additional Information and Disclaimer

Ratings and Price TargetsAs of September 30, 2009, for the whole universe of companies which BBVA Bancomer, has under coverage there are 56% Buy ratings (including “Buy” and “Outperform”), 2% Neutral ratings and 42% Sell ratings (including “Sell” and “Underperform”). BBVA Bancomer or any of its affiliates has rendered Investment Banking services or participated as manager and/or co-manager in public offerings in 46% of the Buy ratings, 0% of the Neutral ratings and in 54% of the Sell ratings.

Ratings are set on a six-month or year-end basis against the relevant benchmark. BBVA Bancomer issues five equity recommendations: Buy: Upside potential of more than 15% vs. the market. Outperform: Upside potential of more than 5% vs. the market. Neutral (Hold): Stock is expected to perform in line with the market (+/-5%). Underperform: Expected downside of at least 5% vs. the market. Sell: Expected downside of at least 15% vs. the market.

Recommendations reflect the stock´s expected performance vs the market, within a specified period. This performance may be explained by the fundamental stock valuation method and other factors. The fundamental stock valuation method used by BBVA Chile S.A., is based on a combination of one or more generally accepted financial analysis methodologies, which may include, multiples, discounted cash flows, sum of parts or any other methodology that applies to the particular case. Other factors include newsflows, benefit timing, M & A´s and market´s appetite in a given sector. Notwithstanding these factors can lead to a recommendation contrary to that indicated by the simple fundamental valuation results and its comparison with direct quotations.

This document and the information, opinions, estimates and recommendations expressed herein, have been prepared by BBVA Bancomer, to provide their or its customers with general information as of the date of the report and are subject to changes without prior notice. BBVA Bancomer is not liable for giving notice of such changes or for updating the contents hereof. This document and its contents do not constitute an offer, invitation or solicitation to purchase or subscribe to any securities or other instruments, or to undertake or divest investments. Neither shall this document nor its contents form the basis of any contract, commitment or decision of any kind.

The determination of a price target does not imply any warranty that it will be attained. For a discussion of the risks associated with the attainment of price targets, which depend on intrinsic and extrinsic factors that affect both the performance and trends prevailing in the market on which the recommended securities is traded and/or offered, please refer to our recently published documents, which are available via e-mail, contact our analysts or visit our internet site www.bancomer.com.

Investors who have access to this document should be aware that the securities, instruments or investments to which it refers may not be appropriate for them due to their specific investment goal, financial position or risk profile, for these have not been taken into account in the preparation of this report. Therefore, investors should make their own investment decisions considering the said circumstances and obtaining such specialized advice as may be necessary.

The contents of this document are based upon information available to the public that has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable. However, such information has not been independently verified by BBVA Bancomer, and therefore no warranty, either express or implicit, is given regarding its accuracy, integrity or correctness. BBVA Bancomer, accepts no liability of any type for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the document or its contents.

Investors should note that the past performance of securities or instruments or the historical results of investments do not guarantee future performance. The market prices of securities or instruments or the results of investments could fluctuate against the interests of investors. Investors should be aware that they could even face a loss of their investment.

Transactions in futures, options or high-yield securities can involve high risk and are not appropriate for every investor. Indeed, in the case of some investments, the potential losses may exceed the amount of the initial investment; in such circumstance, investors may be required to pay more money to support those losses. Thus, before undertaking any transaction with these instruments, investors should be aware of their characteristics, as well as the rights, liabilities and risks associated with these securities and their underlying investments. Investors should also be aware that secondary markets for the said instruments may be limited or may not exist..

BBVA Bancomer, or any of its affiliates, as well as their respective executives and employees, may have a position in any of the securities or instruments referred to, directly or indirectly, in this document, or in any other related thereto; they may trade for their own account or for third-party account in those securities, provide consulting or other services to the issuer of the aforementioned securities or instruments or to companies related thereto or to their shareholders, executives or employees, or may have interests or perform transactions in those securities or instruments or related investments before or after the publication of this report, to the extent permitted by the applicable law.

BBVA Bancomer or any of its affiliates´ salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to its clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein. Furthermore, BBVA Bancomer or any of its affiliates’ proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.


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This document is provided in the United Kingdom solely to those persons to whom it may be addressed according to the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not to be directly or indirectly delivered to or distributed among any other type of persons or entities. In particular, this document is only aimed at and can be delivered to the following persons or entities (i) those outside the United Kingdom (ii) those with expertise regarding investments as mentioned under Section 19(5) of Order 2001, (iii) high net-worth entities; and (iv) any other person or entity under Section 49(1) of Order 2001 to whom the contents hereof can be legally revealed.

The remuneration system concerning the analyst/s author/s of this report is based on multiple criteria, including the results obtained by BBVA Bancomer and by BBVA Group in the fiscal year, which, in turn, include the results generated by the investment banking business, common representation or credit related services; nevertheless, they do not receive any remuneration based on revenues from the mentioned areas or a specific transaction in investment banking, common representation or credit related services.

The information contained in this document should be taken only a general guide on matters that may be of interest. The application and impact of the laws may vary substantially depending on specific circumstances. Changes in regulations and the risks inherent in electronic communication may cause delays, omissions, or inaccuracy in the information contained in this site. Accordingly, the information contained in the site is supplied on the understanding that the authors and editors do not hereby intend to supply any form of consulting, legal, accounting or other advice. As such, it should not be considered a substitute for the direct advice provided by accounting and fiscal advisors or other competent consultants.

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BBVA Bancomer, as web as its executives and employees have adopted the Código de Conducta de Grupo Financiero BBVA Bancomer, which is available in our internet site www.bancomer.com.

BBVA Bancomer is regulated by the Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores.

BBVA Bancomer as well as other entities in the BBVA Group that are not members of the FINRA (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority), are not subject to the rules of disclosure affecting such members.

This material is being distributed into the United States in reliance on an exemption from broker-dealer registration under Rule 15a-6 of the Rules under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Any trades in the securities discussed in this report must be effected through a U.S. registered broker/dealer as we are not authorized to accept any order to effect trades in any security discussed in this report within the U.S.

dailymexico - latibex

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