DAILY I FOREX REPORT 8

TH

MARCH 2013

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Forex: EUR/JPY, EUR/USD And GBP/USD Primed For ECB, BOE

EUR/USD- Trading The European Central Bank (ECB) Rate Decision

EUR/USD- Trading The European Central Bank (ECB) Rate Decision

Pound May Fall as BOE Expands QE, Euro Eyes Draghi Comments

Monetary policy announcements from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are in focus in European hours. Economists expect the BOE will maintain its asset-purchase program at £375 billion, but a plausible case for an increase in stimulus seems to have emerged. February’s MPC meeting minutes showed three policymakers (King, Miles and Fisher) voting to boost

purchases by £25 billion. Last week, Deputy Governor Paul Tucker likewise seemed receptive, saying he was “open to doing more” and adding that “nobody on the committee thinks that QE [is not] a useful instrument anymore”. That means the doves need to secure just one more vote on the 9-member MPC to get their way. Such an outcome is likely to weigh further on the British Pound and we continue to hold short.

TRADING TIPS

BUY EURUSD ABOVE

1.3045 tgs

1.3065/1.3085 sl 1.3015

BUY USDJPY ABOVE

94.25 tgt 94.45/94.65

SL 93.95

SELL GBPUSD BELOW

1.4965 tgt

1.4945/1.4925 SL

1.4995

HEADLINES

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.2978

HIGH: 1.3044

LOW: 1.2975

CLOSE: 1.3010

EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD

TREND : BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD =>-.000(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 50(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 93.93

HIGH: 94.23

LOW: 93.79

CLOSE: 94.15

USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD => -0.02( BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>69(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.4994

HIGH: 1.5013

LOW: 1.4968

CLOSE: 1.4994

GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD => .005( BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 34(BEARIISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 0.8655

HIGH: 0.8698

LOW: 0.8652

CLOSE: 0.8678

EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD =>-.003(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>62(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 82.5670

HIGH: 82.5940

LOW: 81.2940

CLOSE: 82.3870

USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD =>0.79(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>59(BULLISH SIGNAL)

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Mon Mar 4

GBP BoE/GfK Inflation Next 12 Mths (FEB)

Medium

3.5%

00:00

NZD ANZ Commodity Price (FEB)

Low 1.0%

0.3%

00:01

GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (FEB)

Low 13

15

00:01

GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (FEB)

Low -0.1%

-0.3%

00:01

GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (FEB)

Low 0.1%

0.0%

00:30

JPY Confirmation Hearing for BoJ Governor Nominee Kuroda

Medium

00:30

AUD Inventories (4Q) Low 0.2% 0.6% 1.2%

00:30

AUD Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (4Q)

Low -1.0% -1.0% -2.7%

00:30

AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (JAN)

Low 9.9% 8.1% 12.4%

00:30

AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (JAN)

Low -2.4% 2.8% -1.7%

00:30

AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (FEB)

Low 3.0%

0.6%

09:30

GBP Purchasing Manager

Index Construction (FEB) Medium 46.8 49 48.7

09:30

EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (MAR)

Medium -10.6 -4.3 -3.9

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

High 1.9% 1.9% 2.1%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Medium 0.6% 0.5% -0.2%

14:00

EUR Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels

High

14:45

USD ISM New York (FEB) Low

56.7

22:30

AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (FEB)

Medium

45.3

Tue Mar 5

GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.2% -0.2%

ECONOMIC CALENDER

GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (FEB)

Low

1.7% 1.3%

00:01

GBP BRC Sales Like-For-Like YoY (FEB)

Low

1.0% 1.9%

00:30

AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

0.4% -0.2%

00:30

AUD Current Account Balance (Australian Dollar) (4Q)

Medium

-15300M -14900M

00:30

AUD Australia Net Exports of GDP (4Q)

Low

0.5 0.1

01:30

JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-1.7%

01:45

HSBC Services PMI (FEB) Medium

54

03:30

AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (MAR 5)

High

3.00% 3.00%

08:45

EUR Italian Purchasing

Manager Index Services (FEB)

Medium

43.5 43.9

08:50

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB F)

Medium

42.7 42.7

08:55

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB F)

Medium

54.1 54.1

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB F)

Medium

47.3 47.3

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (FEB F)

Medium

47.3 47.3

09:30

GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB)

Medium

51 51.5

09:30

GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (FEB)

Low

$565M

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Retail

Sales (YoY) (JAN) High

-2.9% -3.6%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

0.3% -0.9%

15:00

USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite (FEB)

Medium

55 55.2

15:00

USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MAR)

Low

47.2 47.3

21:45

NZD Value of All Buildings SA (4Q)

Low

3.0% 9.6%

Wed Mar 6

JPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

-5.2%

GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (FEB)

Low

11.5%

00:01

GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

Low

0.6%

00:30

AUD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (4Q)

High

3.0% 3.1%

00:30

AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q)

High

0.6% 0.5%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (4Q P)

High

-0.9% -0.9%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (4Q P)

High

-0.6% -0.6%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Household Consumption (QoQ) (4Q P)

Medium

0.0%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Gross Fixed Capital (QoQ) (4Q P)

Medium

-0.7%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Government Expenditure (QoQ) (4Q P)

Low

-0.2%

12:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 1)

Low

-3.8%

13:15

USD ADP Employment Change (FEB)

Medium

168K 192K

13:15

USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Economic Outlook in Lancaster, PA

Low

15:00

CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision (MAR 6)

High

1.00% 1.00%

15:00

USD Factory Orders (JAN) Medium

-2.2% 1.8%

15:00

Ivey Purchasing Managers

Index SA (FEB) Medium

58.9

15:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAR 1)

Low

-1857K

15:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 1)

Low

557K

15:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 1)

Low

1130K

15:30

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAR 1)

Low

-75K

19:00

USD U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

Medium

22:30

AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (FEB)

Medium

36.2

23:00

NZD QV House Prices (YoY) (FEB)

Low

6.2%

23:50

JPY Official Reserve Assets

(FEB) Low

$1267.3B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAR 1)

Low

-¥106.4B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAR 1)

Low

-¥665.4B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAR 1)

Low

¥190.4B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAR 1)

Low

-¥82.6B

Thu Mar 7

JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (MAR 7)

High

0.10% 0.10%

EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

Low

2.3%

EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.3%

00:30

AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (JAN)

Medium

-427M

05:00

JPY Leading Index (JAN P) (JAN P)

Medium

93.4

05:00

JPY Coincident Index (JAN P) (JAN P)

Low

92.6

05:30

AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollar) (FEB)

Low

A$46.5B

06:30

EUR French Mainland Unemployment Change (4Q)

Medium

29K

06:30

EUR French ILO Unemployment Rate (4Q)

Medium

10.3%

06:30

EUR French ILO Mainland Unemployment Rate (4Q)

Medium

9.9%

06:30

CHF SNB Final Result for 2012

Medium

06:45

CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (FEB)

Medium

3.1% 3.1%

06:45

CHF Unemployment Rate (FEB)

Medium

3.4% 3.4%

07:45

EUR French Trade Balance

(euros) (JAN) Low

-4700M -5349M

08:00

CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (FEB)

Low

-4700M 427.0B

09:00

EUR Italian Producer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

Low

2.0%

09:00

EUR Italian Producer Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Low

-0.2%

11:00

EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

1.6% -1.8%

11:00

EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.6% 0.8%

12:00

GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (MAR 7)

High

0.50% 0.50%

12:00

GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (MAR)

High

375B 375B

12:30

USD RBC Consumer Outlook Index (MAR)

Low

49.5

12:30

USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-24.4%

12:45

EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (MAR 7)

High

0.8% 0.75%

12:45

EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (MAR 7)

Medium

0.00% 0.0%

13:30

USD Trade Balance (JAN) Medium

-$43.0B -$38.5B

13:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 3)

Medium

355K 344K

13:30

USD Unit Labor Costs (4Q F)

Low

4.3% 4.5%

13:30

USD Non-Farm Productivity (4Q F)

Low

-1.5% -2.0%

13:30

USD Continuing Claims (FEB 24)

Low

3110K 3074K

13:30

CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (JAN)

Low

-0.55B -0.90B

13:30

CAD Building Permits (MoM) (JAN)

Low

-11.2%

15:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAR 1)

Low

-171

17:00

USD Household Change in Net Worth (4Q)

Low

$1722B

20:00

USD Consumer Credit (JAN)

Medium

$14.500B $14.595B

21:45

NZD Manufacturing Activity (4Q)

Medium

1.6%

21:45

NZD Manufacturing Activity Volume SA (QoQ) (4Q)

Low

2.6%

23:50

JPY Nominal Gross

Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q F)

High

-0.4%

23:50

JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q F)

High

-0.1%

23:50

JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized (4Q F)

High

-0.4%

23:50

JPY Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) (JAN)

Medium

-¥1512.3B -¥567.6B

23:50

JPY Current Account Total (Yen) (JAN)

Low

-¥626.0B -¥264.1B

23:50

JPY Current Account Balance (YoY) (JAN)

Low

34.2% -199.4%

23:50

JPY Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (FEB)

Low

23:50

JPY Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (FEB)

Low

1.6%

23:50

JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (JAN)

Low

¥112.2B ¥98.1B

23:50

JPY Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) (4Q F)

Low

-0.6%

Fri Mar 8

JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (FEB)

Medium

56.5

JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (FEB)

Medium

49.5

EUR Bank of France Business Sentiment (FEB)

Medium

96 95

CNY Trade Balance (USD) (FEB)

Medium

-$8.85B $29.15B

CNY Imports (YoY) (FEB) Low

-8.2% 28.8%

CNY Exports (YoY) (FEB) Low

7.6% 25.0%

07:45

EUR French Central Government Balance (euros) (JAN)

Low

-87.2B

08:15

CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

-0.30% -0.3%

08:15

CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

-0.1%

08:15

CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.30% -0.3%

08:15

CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (FEB)

Low

-0.5%

11:00

EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-1.2% -1.1%

11:00

EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.4% 0.3%

13:15

CAD Housing Starts (FEB) Medium

172.0K 160.6K

13:30

USD Unemployment Rate (FEB)

High

7.9% 7.9%

13:30

USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (FEB)

High

155K 157K

13:30

CAD Unemployment Rate (FEB)

High

7.1% 7.0%

13:30

CAD Net Change in Employment (FEB)

High

7.5K -21.9K

13:30

USD Change in Private

Payrolls (FEB) Medium

167K 166K

13:30

USD Average Hourly Earning All Employees (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

2.1% 2.1%

13:30

CAD Participation Rate (FEB)

Medium

66.6

13:30

CAD Part Time Employment Change (FEB)

Medium

-1.4

13:30

CAD Full Time Employment Change (FEB)

Medium

-20.6

13:30

Average Hourly Earning All Employees (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.2% 0.20%

13:30

USD Underemployment Rate (U6) (FEB)

Low

14.4%

13:30

USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (FEB)

Low

10K 4K

13:30

USD Change in Household Employment (FEB)

Low

17

13:30

USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (FEB)

Low

3440.0% 34.4

13:30

CAD Labor Productivity (QoQ) (4Q)

Low

-0.5%

15:00

USD Wholesale Inventories (JAN)

Low

0.3% -0.1%

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