daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 18.03.13
TRANSCRIPT
DAILY I FOREX REPORT 18
TH
MARCH 2013
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WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966
Forex: EUR/USD- Trading the U.S. Consumer Price Report
US Dollar Breaks Trend Support, S&P 500 Eyes Record High
Euro to Overlook CPI, Aussie to Follow Dollar Higher on US Data
Euro Unlikely to Find Volatility in CPI Data, EU Summit Outcome
US Dollar, Aussie May Rise on Another Supportive Set of US Data
New Zealand Dollar Sold as Consumer Confidence Gauge Slumps
February’s Eurozone CPI report headlines a quiet European economic calendar. Expectations call for the headline year-on-year inflation rate to print at 1.8 percent, the lowest in 29 months. While soft price growth gives the ECB room to introduce stimulus to offset the Eurozone recession, the central bank seems unlikely to act while political instability in Italy undermines policy transmission. With that in mind, the data’s impact on the Euro is likely to be limited. The EU Leaders’ Summit enters its second day, but the sit-down is unlikely to yield demonstrable progress on the most significant issue facing the region – the political gridlock in Italy. Indeed, we discussed yesterday, there seems relatively little that can be done at the EU level (at least publically) until an increasingly likely repeat election is played out.
TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE
1.3070 tgs
1.3090/1.3110 sl 1.3040
BUY USDJPY ABOVE
96.25 tgt 96.45/96.65
SL 96.00
BUY GBPUSD ABOVE
1.5170 Tgt
1.5190/1.5210 SL
1.5140
HEADLINES
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.3012
HIGH: 1.3070
LOW: 1.3002
CLOSE: 1.3064
EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD
TREND : BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS
MACD =>-.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 70(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 95.94
HIGH: 96.27
LOW: 95.88
CLOSE: 96.14
USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS
MACD => -0.05( BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>62(BULLISH SIGNAL50
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.5090
HIGH: 1.5168
LOW: 1.5068
CLOSE: 1.5154
GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS
MACD => .002( BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 73(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 0.8623
HIGH: 0.8636
LOW: 0.8602
CLOSE: 0.8619
EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD =>-.003(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>40(BEARISH SIGNAL)
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HOURLY EURGBP CHART
HOURLY USDINDEX CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 82.5370
HIGH: 83.6130
LOW: 82.2490
CLOSE: 82.2740
USDINDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD =>0.79(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>30(BEARISH SIGNAL)
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Mon
Mar 11
JPY Japanese Parliament May Vote on BoJ Governor Nominations
High
00:01
GBP Lloyds Employment
Confidence (FEB)
Low -44
-45
06:00
JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (FEB P)
Medium -21.5%
-26.4%
07:00
EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (JAN)
Medium 13.7B 13.9B 12.1B
07:00
EUR German Current Account (euros) (JAN)
Low 11.3B 10.5B 20.2B
07:00
EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (JAN)
Low 3.3% 0.7% -1.5%
07:00
EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (JAN)
Low 1.4% 0.5% 0.2%
07:00
EUR German Labor Costs Workday Adj (YoY) (4Q)
Low 2.9%
2.9%
07:00
EUR German Labor Costs Seas. Adj. (QoQ) (4Q)
Low 0.8%
0.2%
08:15
CHF Retail Sales
(Real) (YoY) (JAN) Medium 1.9%
4.7%
09:00
EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (4Q F)
Medium -0.9% -0.9% -0.9%
09:00
EUR Italian Gross
Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q F)
Medium -2.8% -2.7% -2.7%
23:50
JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) (FEB)
Low
0.3% 0.4%
23:50
JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price
Index (YoY) (FEB)
Low
-0.1% -0.2%
23:50
JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (JAN)
Medium
-0.2% 1.4%
ECONOMIC CALENDER
23:50
JPY BSI Large All Industry (QoQ) (1Q)
Medium
-5.5
23:50
JPY BSI Large Manufacturing (QoQ) (1Q)
Medium
-10.3
Tue
Mar 12 00:01
EUR Germany Second Quarter Manpower Employment Outlook (Table)
Low
00:01
GBP RICS House Price Balance (FEB)
Medium
-1% -4%
00:30
AUD NAB Business Conditions (FEB)
Low
-2
00:30
AUD NAB Business
Confidence (FEB) Medium
3
00:30
AUD RBA Credit Card Balances (JAN)
Low
$A49.9B
00:30
AUD RBA Credit Card Purchases (JAN)
Low
$A22.4B
05:00
JPY Consumer Confidence (FEB)
Medium
43.3
07:00
EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (FEB)
Low
0.3%
07:00
EUR German Wholesale Price Index
(YoY) (FEB)
Low
2.3%
07:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB F)
Medium
0.6% 0.6%
07:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB F)
High
1.5% 1.5%
07:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (FEB F)
Medium
0.8% 0.8%
07:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY)
(FEB F)
High
1.8% 1.8%
09:00
EUR Italian Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonized (YoY) (FEB F)
Low
0.1%
09:30
GBP Industrial Production (MoM)
(JAN)
Low
0.1% 1.1%
09:30
GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
-1.1% -1.7%
09:30
GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.0% 1.6%
09:30
GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
-1.0% -1.5%
09:30
GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (JAN)
Medium
-£8950 -£8897
09:30
GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds)
(JAN)
Medium
-£3200 -£3201
09:30
GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (JAN)
Low
-£4500 -£4239
11:30
USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (FEB)
Low
90.0 88.9
14:00
USD JOLTs Job Openings (JAN)
Low
3617
15:00
GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (FEB)
Medium
0.0%
18:00
USD Monthly Budget Statement (FEB)
Medium
21:45
NZD Food Prices (MoM) (FEB)
Low
1.9%
23:30
AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (MAR)
Medium
7.7%
23:30
AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (MAR)
Low
108.3
Wed Mar 13
AUD Australia Manpower Survey (2Q)
Low
7%
NZD New Zealand
Manpower Survey (2Q) Medium
15%
00:30
AUD Home Loans (JAN)
Medium
0.5% -1.5%
00:30
AUD Investment Lending (JAN)
Low
-2.4%
00:30
AUD Value of Loans (MoM) (JAN)
Low
-2.7%
06:30
EUR French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (4Q F)
Low
-0.2% -0.2%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production
s.a. (MoM) (JAN)
Low
-0.1% 0.70%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
-2.0% -2.3%
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 8)
Low
14.80%
12:30
USD Import Price Index (MoM) (FEB)
Low
0.5% 0.6%
12:30
USD Import Price Index (YoY) (FEB)
Low
-0.6% -1.3%
12:30
USD Advance Retail Sales (FEB)
High
0.5% 0.1%
12:30
USD Retail Sales Less Autos (FEB)
Medium
0.5% 0.2%
12:30
USD Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas (FEB)
Medium
0.2% 0.2%
12:30
USD Retail Sales "Control Group" (FEB)
Low
0.2% 0.1%
14:00
USD Business Inventories (JAN)
Medium
0.4% 0.1%
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 8)
Low
3833K
14:30
USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAR 8)
Low
257K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
(MAR 8)
Low
-616K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 8)
Low
-3830K
20:00
NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision (MAR 14)
High
2.50% 2.50%
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAR 8)
Low
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAR 8)
Low
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying
Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAR 8)
Low
¥657.8B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAR 8)
Low
¥269.6B
Thu Mar 14
00:00
AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (MAR)
Medium
2.2%
CNY China Manpower Survey (2Q)
Low
14%
JPY Japan Manpower Survey (2Q)
Low
11
CNY Actual FDI (YoY) (FEB)
Medium
-4.8% -7.3%
00:30
AUD Employment Change (FEB)
High
10.0K 10.4K
00:30
AUD Unemployment Rate (FEB)
High
5.5% 5.4%
00:30
AUD Full Time Employment Change (FEB)
Medium
-9.8K
00:30
AUD Part Time Employment Change (FEB)
Medium
20.2K
00:30
AUD Participation Rate
(FEB) Low
65.0% 65.0%
02:00
NZD Non Resident Bond Holdings (FEB)
Low
66.7%
04:00
JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales
(YoY) (FEB)
Low
-5.4%
04:30
JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN F)
Low
1.0%
04:30
JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN F)
Medium
-5.1%
04:30
JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (JAN F)
Low
2.9%
06:00
JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (FEB F)
Medium
08:30
CHF Swiss National
Bank Rate Decision (MAR 14)
High
0.00% 0.00%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Employment (QoQ) (4Q)
Low
-0.2%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Employment (YoY)
(4Q)
Low
-0.7%
12:30
CAD Capacity Utilization Rate (4Q)
Low
12:30
USD Current Account Balance (4Q)
Low
-$112.8B -$107.5B
12:30
CAD New Housing
Price Index (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.2%
12:30
CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (JAN)
Low
2.3%
12:30
USD Producer Price
Index (MoM) (FEB) Medium
0.6% 0.2%
12:30
USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (FEB)
Medium
0.1% 0.2%
12:30
USD Producer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)
High
1.7% 1.4%
12:30
USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (FEB)
High
1.8%
12:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 10)
Medium
340K
12:30
USD Continuing Claims (MAR 3)
Low
3094K
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAR 8)
Low
-146
20:30
USD Fed Releases Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review
Low
21:30
NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (FEB)
Medium
55.2
Fri Mar 15
EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report
Medium
00:00
NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (MAR)
Low
121
00:00
NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (MAR)
Low
2.3%
08:15
CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (FEB)
Low
-0.1%
08:15
CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (FEB)
Low
0.8%
09:30
EUR Itally General Government Debt
(JAN)
Medium
1988.4B
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB)
Medium
0.4% -1.0%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)
High
1.8% 1.8%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (FEB)
High
1.3% 1.3%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Labor Costs (YoY) (4Q)
Low
2.0%
12:30
USD Empire
Manufacturing (MAR) Low
8 10.04
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB)
Medium
0.4% 0.0%
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (FEB)
Medium
0.2% 0.3%
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)
High
1.8% 1.6%
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (FEB)
High
2.0% 1.9%
12:30
USD Consumer Price
Index Core Index s.a. (FEB)
Medium
232.138 232.108
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (FEB)
Low
230.28
13:00
USD Total Net TIC Flows (JAN)
Low
$25.2B
13:00
USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (JAN)
Medium
$64.2B
13:00
CAD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (FEB)
Low
1.3%
13:15
USD Industrial Production (FEB)
Medium
0.3% -0.1%
13:15
USD Capacity Utilization (FEB)
Low
79.3% 79.1%
13:15
USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production (FEB)
Low
0.3% -0.4%
13:55
USD U. of Michigan Confidence (MAR P)
Medium
78 77.6
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