d4_1_sesame decision support system specification

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    Project number

    261696 

    Project acronym

    SESAME 

    Project title

    Securing the European Electricity Supply Against Malicious and accidental thrEats

    Deliverable Number

    D4.i 

    System Specification of Decision Support System

    Version: 0.7

    Date: 2012-12-18

    Submission Date: 31-12-2012

    TUD, Polito, INDRA and TrEl

    Dissemination Level

    PU Public √ 

    PP Restricted to other programme participants (including the Commission Services)

    RE Restricted to a group specified by the consortium (including the Commission Services)

    CO Confidential , only for members of the consortium (including the Commission Services)

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    Deliverable number: D4.i

    Deliverable title: System Specification of Decision Support System

    Work package: WP4: System Specification of Decision Support System

    Lead contractor: TUD

    Quality Assurance Status of deliverable

    Action By Date

    Internal review Enrico Pons, Polito 20/12/2012

    Verified (WP Leader) Zofia Luszo, TUD 20/12/2012

     Approved (Coordinator) Giovanni Griva, Polito 21/12/2012

    Submitted Author(s)

    Name Organisation

    Wolter PIETERS TUD

    Zofia LUKSZO TUD

    Ettore BOMPARD PoliTo

    Tao HUANG PoliTo

     Abouzar Estebsari PoliTo

    Javier PASCUAL Indra

    Lola LUCENA Indra

    Juan PRIETO Indra

    Guillermo HIGUERAS Indra

     Ana FUENTES Indra

    Simona Louise VORONCA Transelectrica

    Mihai CREMENESCU Transelectrica

    Tania Ecatarina ROMAN Transelectrica

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    Abstract

    This report is the first and only deliverable of the fourth (of nine) work packages of the SESAME project.

    It covers both tasks of the work package, namely:

    4.1 Physical Network Modelling

    4.2 System Specification of DSS

    Reported results will be used in work package 5 (Assembling of Decision Support System – Software

    Implementation).

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    Management summary

    This document provides the system specification of the SESAME decision support system (DSS). The

    DSS calculates the risk associated with different threats to transmission networks, and enables

    insight into the cost-effectiveness of countermeasures.

    The DSS consists of the following layers:

      Event selection

      Frequency assessment

      Impact assessment

      Countermeasure evaluation  Map generation

    In the event selection layer, the user defines the network model and selects the variables of interest

    (threats, loss events, countermeasures). In the frequency assessment layer, threat and network data

    are combined to calculate the frequencies of loss events, i.e. combinations of triggering events in the

    different components. In the impact assessment layer, a sequence of network states is calculated for

    cascading failures after each loss event, and the damage due to power loss in these sequences is

    assessed. In the risk evaluation layer, threats and countermeasures are ranked according to induced

    risk and prevented risk, respectively. Finally, in the map generation layer, the results are shown on a

    map of the network.

    The assessment of loss event frequencies is based on the frequencies of the applicable threats, and

    estimations of the likelihood of these threats causing the loss event (vulnerability). There is currently

    no automatic way to calculate loss event frequencies for loss events affecting multiple components,

    as this is dependent on many variables such as the area affected by a threat, the distribution of the

    center of the threat events over locations, and the relation between the distance from the center

    and the threat magnitude. Also, it is infeasible to run the complex impact assessment calculations for

    large numbers of possible loss events, when each combination of triggering events would have to be

    tested. Therefore, the DSS calculations will be based on user-selected exemplary loss events, and

    their vulnerability to selected threats.

    This document specifies the modules needed for each of the layers, their in- and outputs, algorithm

    descriptions, and optimization possibilities. The document provides a reference architecture, but not

    a fully implemented system.

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    ContentsManagement summary ........................................................................................................................... 4

    1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 8

    2 Conceptual framework .................................................................................................................... 9

    2.1 Risk taxonomy ......................................................................................................................... 9

    2.2 Definitions ............................................................................................................................. 10

    3 Requirements analysis ................................................................................................................... 12

    3.1 Goal ....................................................................................................................................... 12

    3.2 Users ...................................................................................................................................... 12

    3.3 Scenarios (WP6/7) ................................................................................................................. 12

    3.4 Functionality .......................................................................................................................... 12

    3.5 Use cases ............................................................................................................................... 14

    3.6 Detailed functions ................................................................................................................. 14

    3.6.1 Event selection .............................................................................................................. 14

    3.6.2 Frequency assessment .................................................................................................. 16

    3.6.3 Impact assessment ........................................................................................................ 18

    3.6.4 Risk evaluation ............................................................................................................... 20

    3.6.5 Map generation ............................................................................................................. 21

    3.7 Non-functional requirements ................................................................................................ 21

    3.7.1 Speed ............................................................................................................................. 21

    3.7.2 Security .......................................................................................................................... 21

    4 Reference architecture .................................................................................................................. 22

    4.1 High-level architecture .......................................................................................................... 22

    4.1.1 The central DSS system ................................................................................................. 22

    4.1.2 External modules ........................................................................................................... 23

    4.2 Databank definitions ............................................................................................................. 23

    4.2.1 Network ......................................................................................................................... 23

    4.2.2 Load curve ..................................................................................................................... 23

    4.2.3 Threat type .................................................................................................................... 24

    4.2.4 Threat event .................................................................................................................. 24

    4.2.5 Loss type ........................................................................................................................ 25

    4.2.6 Loss event ...................................................................................................................... 25

    4.2.7 Triggering event ............................................................................................................. 25

    4.2.8 Vulnerability .................................................................................................................. 26

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    4.2.9 Countermeasure ............................................................................................................ 26

    4.2.10 Network impact ............................................................................................................. 26

    4.2.11 Damage .......................................................................................................................... 27

    4.3 Interfaces ............................................................................................................................... 27

    4.3.1 Interfaces between modules ......................................................................................... 27

    4.3.2 User interface ................................................................................................................ 28

    4.4 Modules and algorithms ........................................................................................................ 28

    4.4.1 Threat selection ............................................................................................................. 28

    4.4.2 Loss event selection ...................................................................................................... 29

    4.4.3 Countermeasure selection ............................................................................................ 31

    4.4.4 Vulnerability assessment ............................................................................................... 31

    4.4.5 Threat event frequency assessment ............................................................................. 31

    4.4.6 Loss event frequency assessment ................................................................................. 32

    4.4.7 Network variants generation......................................................................................... 32

    4.4.8 Network evolution ......................................................................................................... 33

    4.4.9 Network impact assessment ......................................................................................... 35

    4.4.10 Damage assessment ...................................................................................................... 36

    4.4.11 Risk assessment ............................................................................................................. 36

    4.4.12 Threat ranking ............................................................................................................... 36

    4.4.13 Countermeasure ranking ............................................................................................... 36

    4.4.14 Map generation ............................................................................................................. 37

    4.5 Optimization strategies ......................................................................................................... 37

    4.6 Interdependencies ................................................................................................................. 37

    5 Prototype choices .......................................................................................................................... 38

    5.1 Prototype threats .................................................................................................................. 38

    5.2 Prototype functionality ......................................................................................................... 38

    6 Conclusions and recommendations .............................................................................................. 39

    Appendix A: Network data .................................................................................................................... 40

    Appendix B: Triggering event data ........................................................................................................ 49

    Appendix C: Countermeasure data ....................................................................................................... 53

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    1  Introduction

    Within the SESAME project, decision support is developed for security investment in electricity

    transmission grids. Measures can be taken against natural, accidental, as well as malicious threats.

    For example, blackouts may occur due to ice storms, spontaneous component failure, or cyber

    attacks, and these may be prevented by additional power lines, more reliable components, improved

    automatic responses, or improved information security.

    The current document is the deliverable of Work Package 4, which concerns the system specification

    of the SESAME decision support system (DSS). The DSS calculates the risk associated with different

    threats to transmission networks, and provides insight into the cost-effectiveness of

    countermeasures.

    This document builds upon the following deliverables:

    D1.iii Risk assessment calculation kernel

    D1.iv Incident-response system

    D2.i Impact assessment simulation tool (due April 2012)

    As deliverable D2.i is not available yet, only the interface with this tool has been defined. This

    decision support system specification will be used in the Work Package Assembling of Decision

    Support System – Software Implementation (WP5).

    This document does not provide an overview of threats that can or should be considered. For such an

    overview, we refer to deliverable D1.1 and D1.2. The user should be able to select these threats in

    the event selection layer.

    This document is structured as follows. In chapter 2, the general framework and definitions of terms

    are provided. In chapter 3, the requirements for the decision support system are described. In

    chapter 4, a reference architecture is provided in terms of modules, databases, and their

    interactions. High-level descriptions of algorithms and mathematical relations are defined. In chapter

    5, specific choices for the prototype version to be implemented within the SESAME project are

    highlighted. Conclusions and recommendations are discussed in chapter 6.

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    2  Conceptual framework

    2.1  Risk taxonomy

    As a standard for the DSS calculations, the Risk Taxonomy of The Open Group was chosen. This

    standard distinguishes between threat events, loss events, and probable loss magnitudes. For

    example, a storm (threat event) may cause a power line breakdown (loss event), which may cause a

    blackout with economic damage (probable loss magnitude).

    In transmission grids, a loss event is considered to consist of a combination of simultaneous

    triggering events, for example the breakdown of one or more components. The frequency with which

    such an event is expected to happen is calculated from the frequency of the associated threat, and

    the likelihood of such a threat event leading to the loss event (called vulnerability). A specific method

    for calculating vulnerability has been suggested,1 but this method is considered external to the DSS.

    For the automatic assessment of the vulnerability of sets of components to the same threat, no

    models are readily available. Such a model could be developed in the future as an extension to the

    DSS. Currently, the user will need to estimate the likelihood of such simultaneous failures. The same

    holds for special treatment of the frequency of malicious threats. Currently, these are treated in the

    same way as natural threats, with estimated frequencies. Using scientific results from the SESAME

    project, it should become possible to take attacker strategies into account in the future.

    The probable loss magnitude is assessed by calculating a sequence of network states after a loss

    event, in the original network as well as when countermeasures are in place. The network states are

    used to calculate the amount of unserved energy in substations. Based on the unserved energy and

    economic information about the affected region, the economic damage can be estimated.

    The induced risk associated with a threat event or loss event is its frequency times the probable loss

    magnitude, or expected damage, associated with the event. This yields the damage expected due to

    this particular threat or loss event per unit of time (year). The risk associated with events can be

    calculated both with and without countermeasures. This gives rise to the notion of prevented risk

    associated with a countermeasure. Cost-effectiveness represents the prevented risk minus the costs

    of the countermeasure(s). Both threats and countermeasures can be ranked according to the risk

    they induce/prevent.

    The central conceptual framework for the decision support system is thus based on a separation of

    concerns between the following:

    1.  External events (threat events), and their associated magnitudes and frequencies;

    2.  Internal system events (loss events composed of one or more triggering events) caused by

    external events;

    3.  Cascading failures in the system due to triggering events, and the resulting system states,

    and unserved energy;

    4.  Damage caused by the unserved energy;

    1 Wolter Pieters, Sanne H.G. van der Ven, and Christian W. Probst. 2012. A move in the security measurement

    stalemate: elo-style ratings to quantify vulnerability. In Proceedings of the 2012 workshop on New security

    paradigms (NSPW '12). ACM, New York, NY, USA, 1-14. DOI=10.1145/2413296.2413298

    http://doi.acm.org/10.1145/2413296.2413298

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    5.  Countermeasures and their effect on frequency of and damage caused by triggering events.

    In particular, the relation between external threat events and internal loss events is described by the

    vulnerability of the associated components, i.e. the likelihood that a threat event causes a loss event.

    For example, a power line will have vulnerability data associated with it for storms of different

    magnitudes, and the likelihood of loss may for example be 0.2 for storms of 10 Beaufort.

    2.2  Definitions

    The table below provides definitions and examples for the most important terms used in the

    following sections.

    Table 1: Definitions for the SESAME DSS

    Term Definition Example

    Network An electricity transmission grid The Romanian transmission grid

    Componenttype

    A set of devices with identical properties, ofwhich an instance can be part of a network.

    A power line with properties X andY

    Component A part of a network with a distinguished

    physical appearance and/or function

    The power line between bus A and

    bus B

    Connection A possibility for interaction between

    components in a network

    Connection of bus 101 to branch A

    Network model A digital representation of a transmission

    grid, including its components, their

    properties/parameters, and connections

    The Romanian grid represented as

    a graph

    Countermeasure A change in the network model

    representing an attempt to reduce risk

    An additional power line between

    bus A and bus B

    Network variant The network model augmented with zero

    or more countermeasures

    A representation of the Romanian

    grid with an additional power line

    between A and B

    Load curve A time-based sequence of load levels in all

    parts of the network model

    The expected loads in the

    Romanian grid between 6pm and

    2am on an average winter day

    Threat type An external phenomenon that may causedamage to the transmission grid

    Storms

    Threat

    magnitude

    The ability of a threat to cause damage 10 Beaufort

    Threat event A concrete occurrence of a threat with a

    specific magnitude at a specific location

    A storm of 10 Beaufort in a

    province of Romania

    Loss event A concrete occurrence of damage in one or

    more components.

    The breakdown of the power line

    between bus A and bus B, and the

    breakdown of generator X, on 1-1-

    2012

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    Triggering event A concrete occurrence of damage in exactly

    one component. A loss event may consist of

    multiple triggering events.

    The breakdown of the power line

    between bus A and bus B on 1-1-

    2012

    Threat-loss

    event

    A concrete occurrence of damage in a

    component due to a threat event

    The breakdown of the power line

    between bus A and bus B on 1-1-

    2012 due to a storm of 10 Beaufort

    Vulnerability The likelihood that a threat event causes a

    specific loss event

    The property of a power line with

    properties X and Y to break down

    in a storm of 10 Beaufort with 0.5

    probability

    Network impact The impact of an event on the network Power loss of 85% in buses A and B

    for 10 hours

    External impact

    / damage

    The impact of an event on society in terms

    of monetary loss

    Economic losses of M€ 10 due to

    10 hours of power loss

    Risk Expected damage per unit of time M€ 10 per year

    Prevented risk Reduction in risk by countermeasure A reduction of M€ 1 per year

    Cost-

    effectiveness

    Reduction in risk minus countermeasure

    costs

    A cost-effectiveness of M€ 0.5 per

    year

    Applicationscenario

    An example network and stakeholderlandscape used in the validation of the DSS

    Analysis of threats andcountermeasures in the Romanian

    transmission grid from the

    perspective of the TSO

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    3  Requirements analysis

    3.1  Goal

    The goal of the DSS is balancing costs and benefits of security investments in transmission grids. The

    goal can be decomposed as follows:

    1.  Determine the effects of threats on transmission grids;

    2.  Identify and rank possible (sets of) countermeasures;

    3.  Justify security investments.

    3.2  Users

    The primary users are:

    1.  TSOs (and ENTSO-E at European level), for system development and long-term investment

    planning;

    2.  Regulators, for assessment and verification of incentives and investments.

    Secondary use is foreseen by policy makers. Also, transmission system operators (TSOs) may use the

    system to suggest possible measures to be taken by electricity producers.

    3.3  Scenarios (WP6/7)

    Two application scenarios are foreseen in the project

      Authority perspective: e-control Austria (WP6)

      TSO perspective: Transelectrica (WP7)

    3.4  FunctionalityBased on the framework outlined in the previous chapter, the DSS is envisioned to consist of the

    following layers:

      Event selection

      Frequency assessment

      Impact assessment

      Risk evaluation

      Map generation

    In the event selection layer, the user constructs the network model and selects the events of interest(threats, countermeasures). In the frequency assessment layer, threat and vulnerability data are

    combined to calculate loss event frequencies for the different components. In the impact assessment

    layer, network states are calculated for each loss event, and the damage due to power loss in such

    states is assessed. In the risk evaluation layer, threats and countermeasures are ranked according to

    induced risk and prevented risk, respectively. Finally, in the map generation layer, the results are

    shown on a map of the network.

    In order to justify investments, the expected costs due to threats need to be known both with and

    without the countermeasure. These will be calculated by the DSS. Also, the costs of countermeasures

    (both investment and operational) need to be supplied by the user.

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    3.5  Use cases

    The interaction with the user is limited in the DSS. There are six main ways for the user to interact

    with the system:

      Entering the input data;

      Selecting the relevant events;

      Requesting a simulation run;

      Reading the output data;

      Requesting the generation of a map;

      Interacting with the map.

    3.6  Detailed functions

    This section specifies the functions to be performed by the DSS in more detail, in particular in terms

    of their in- and outputs. For each function required inputs and outputs are defined. The functions will

    correspond to system modules, which are independent parts of the system transforming particular

    inputs into particular outputs.

    3.6.1  Event selection

    The event selection layer allows the user to select the threats, loss events, and countermeasures of

    interest (Figure 3).

    Figure 3: The functions of the event selection layer

    3.6.1.1 

    Threat selectionThis function allows the user to select the threats to be considered in the analysis. Threats are

    generally specified as a threat type (e.g. storm) plus a threat magnitude (e.g. 10 Beaufort). For each

    threat type, the system should be able to register the corresponding magnitude units. In the typical

    use case, the user will select only types, not magnitudes.

    If no threat is selected, the analysis will only be based on the selected loss events. For analysis

    purposes, all frequencies will then be assumed to equal 1. In that case, countermeasures can only be

    ranked on prevented risk, not on cost-effectiveness.

    Input:

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    Social threats 

    contamination  Chemical andbiochemicalcontamination

    Solar flares/solar winds /magneticstorms

    distributionline

    short circuit static frequencystability

       M  a   l   i  c   i  o  u  s   t   h  r  e  a   t  s

    physicalthreats

    ter roristattack

    distributionline

    br eak

    war  act undergroundcable

    malfunction dynamicfrequencystabilitysabotage pole br eak

    humanthreats

    insiderthreats

    fuse malfunction Transientfrequencystabilitycyber

    threatsmalware inf ormation ,

    communicationandcontrolsystems

    cyberequipment

    br eak

    terroristshacking

    cybersystem

    hack

    Note *: not exactly associated with angle, but related to generator rotor

    3.6.1.2  Loss event selection

    This function allows the user to select the loss events to be considered in the analysis.

    Input:

    1.  List of loss events

    2.  Selected threats

    3.  User input (selection from list)

    Output:

    1.  Selected loss events

    3.6.1.3  Countermeasure selection

    This function allows the user to select the countermeasures to be considered in the analysis.

    Countermeasures are represented as possible modifications to the network model. Countermeasures

    can only be selected if the corresponding threats are selected.

    Input:

    1.  List of countermeasures

    2.  Selected threats

    3.  User input (selection from list)

    Output:

    1.  Selected countermeasures

    3.6.2  Frequency assessment

    The frequency assessment layer deals with determining the expected number of events per year

    (Figure 4). For loss events, this number is based on the expected frequency of threat events, and thelikelihood of the loss event happening when such a threat event happens (vulnerability).

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    Figure 4: The modules of the frequency assessment layer

    3.6.2.1 

    Vulnerability assessment

    This function determines how likely a threat event is to cause an associated loss event. This

    likelihood will depend on the properties (strength, security) of the component. It is assumed that

    these likelihoods are estimated by the user for each loss event. In future extensions of the DSS, based

    on scientific results from the project, the system may assist in calculating them from records of past

    events.

    Input:

    1.  Selected threats

    2.  Selected loss events3.  User-supplied vulnerability values

    Output:

    1.  For each combination of selected threat and selected loss event, likelihood that threat event

    causes loss event

    3.6.2.2  Threat event frequency assessment

    This function determines how frequently a particular threat type with a particular magnitude is

    expected to occur. For natural threats, the source of this information consists of threat event

    frequencies at known locations (e.g. weather stations). The frequencies are assumed to be known

    per region. For each component potentially affected by the threat, the frequency at the component’s

    location needs to be determined based on the region in which the component is located. For

    accidental threats, location-independent estimations of frequencies (e.g. spontaneous breakdown)

    are used. For malicious threats, frequencies need to be supplied per region as well, depending for

    example on the political situation.

    Input:

    1.  Selected threats

    2.  Selected loss events3.  Regions of components affected in loss events

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    4.  For natural threats, frequencies per magnitude level per region

    5.  For accidental threats, estimation of frequencies

    6.  For malicious threats, frequencies per magnitude level per region

    Output:

    1.  For each (threat, magnitude, loss event), relevant frequency at loss event location

    3.6.2.3  Loss event frequency assessment

    This function calculates the expected frequency of loss events from the associated threat event

    frequencies and vulnerabilities.

    Input:

    1.  Selected threat and loss events

    2.  For each (threat, magnitude, loss event), relevant frequency at loss event location

    3.  For each combination of selected threat and selected loss event, likelihood that threat eventcauses loss event

    Output:

    1.  Loss event frequency for each combination of threat and loss event

    2.  Aggregate loss frequency for each loss event (caused by different threats)

    3.6.3  Impact assessment

    In the impact assessment layer, the consequences of each loss event are assessed, in terms of

    disturbances to the network and then in terms of economic damage (Figure 5).

    Figure 5: The modules of the impact assessment layer

    3.6.3.1  Network variants generation

    This function generates network variants from the network model and countermeasure

    implementations. The resulting variants represent the same network with the countermeasure

    implemented.

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    Input:

    1.  Countermeasures

    2.  Full network specification

    Output:

    1.  Network variants

    3.6.3.2  Network evolution

    This function calculates the final state of the network after cascading events/failures caused by a loss

    event.

    Input:

    1.  Network variants

    2.  Selected loss events

    3.  Load scenarios

    Output:

    1.  Sequence of network states from loss event until restored power per loss event and per

    variant

    3.6.3.3  Network impact assessment

    This function determines the impact on the network of the resulting sequence of states after a

    triggering event. This is represented as unserved energy per state and per substation.

    Input:

    1.  Sequence of network states per loss event and per variant

    Output:

    1.  Unserved energy per substation for each state in the evolution sequence for each loss event

    and for each variant

    3.6.3.4  Damage assessment

    This function calculates the expected damage to society of a loss event and associated network

    impacts.

    Input:

    1.  Unserved energy per substation for each state in the evolution sequence for each loss event

    and for each variant

    2.  Regions where substations are located

    Output:

    1.  Expected damage per loss event and per variant

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    3.6.4.3  Countermeasure ranking

    This function ranks the countermeasures according to their performance. For the ranking, two

    numbers need to be calculated: the risk prevented by a countermeasure, and the cost-effectiveness

    of a countermeasure.

    Input:

    1.  Risks (for all threat-loss events for all variants)

    2.  Countermeasure costs (investment and operational)

    Output:

    1.  Prevented risk per countermeasure

    2.  Cost-effectiveness per countermeasure

    3.  Ranked countermeasures according to prevented risk

    4.  Ranked countermeasures according to cost-effectiveness

    3.6.5  Map generation

    This function shows the results of the analysis on a map

    Input:

    1.  Full system specification

    2.  Ranked threats and associated risk

    3.  Ranked countermeasures and associated costs / prevented damage

    4.  Sequences of network states from loss event until restored power

    5.  GIS data

    Output:

    1.  Map of threats and countermeasures

    2.  Visual representation of network evolution after loss event

    3.7  Non-functional requirements

    3.7.1  Speed

    As the required calculations are extensive (simulations of risk for each combination of threat – event

     – countermeasure, including simulations of resulting state), the system will likely not respondinstantaneously for larger networks. Concrete speed requirements cannot be given at this stage, but

    a balance between accuracy and usability is likely to be needed based on tests with the prototype.

    See also the discussion on optimization (section 4.5).

    3.7.2  Security

    As network data is considered sensitive, the system running the software should be a stand-alone

    machine. No further security measures (e.g. encryption) are planned in the prototype.

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    4  Reference architecture

    4.1  High-level architecture

    The different modules communicate via an Excel file (Excel 2007 / Office Open XML (.xlsx)). Input is

    read from the Excel file, and output is written into (possibly a different sheet) in the same file.

    The input data will be set up in an Excel© workbook, in separate sheets. The DSS tool will be a web

    application built under .NET technology and running in an Internet Information Server on Windows

    2003 Server 32 bits. The system will have the ability of:

      Executing Matlab© programs from Excel©.

      Draw geographical information in maps.

    Once the modules have finished calculations, they write the output in another sheet of the Excel©

    workbook and the DSS will work with the information to show to the user a result table. Some

    calculations will be implemented in the Excel sheet itself, by means of Excel formulas.

    Figure 7: The high-level reference architecture

    4.1.1  The central DSS system

    The implementation of the DSS is foreseen based on the e-SCOPE platform, developed by partner

    Indra. An installation guide for this platform is available. The central DSS system consists of those

    algorithms that can be implemented directly in Excel or within e-SCOPE. It is foreseen that all

    modules are implemented in the central DSS, except the network evolution (Matlab) and the map

    generation (GIS tool).

    User

    Excel sheet withinput data from the

    user and outputdata from models.

    Models. Readsinput form Excel.Writes output to

    Excel.

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    4.1.2  External modules

    4.1.2.1  Network evolution

    Contrary to other system parts, the network evolution module is written in Matlab. For each

    triggering event, i.e. the loss of a component, the resulting final state of the network is determined

    for each of the possible network variants.

    4.1.2.2  Map generation

    Based on the final contents of the Excel file after analysis, a map is generated that displays the

    results, including the ranking of threats and countermeasures. The map can be implemented in any

    GIS tool.

    4.2  Databank definitions

    This section defines all the data fields used or generated by the DSS. Entries marked with * will be

    computed by the DSS. All other entries need to be supplied as input. Each table corresponds to a

    sheet in Excel, with the fields being associated with columns.

    4.2.1  Network

    Network data includes all the network elements data (elements parameters, protection data,

    restoration time and costs) and the system base (frequency, MVA base, etc). Elements of the system

    include all the buses, generators, loads, transmission lines, transformers, FACTS devices, etc., which

    have their own parameters and this is called as the initial network status in normal operation without

    any threat. Since the network data is the base for the calculation, all of them should be supplied by

    the user. As the network data consists of a large number of fields, please refer to Appendix A for

    details.

    4.2.1.1 

    Locations

    Location information is needed for 2 different purposes in the DSS:

    1.  Linking substations to economic regions for damage assessment;

    2.  Displaying network components on a map.

    For both purposes, it is assumed that location information is available for buses, both in terms of GPS

    coordinates and in terms of region. Regions are defined according to NUTS level 2.1 

    Table 3: Data specification for location information

    Name Data type Length / Decimals Origin

    BUS_NUMBER Integer Input

    Longitude Float 5 Input

    Latitude Float 5 Input

    Region String 4 Input

    4.2.2  Load curve

    In order to calculate the unserved energy due to the blackout correctly, we also need information

    about the (forecasted) load. In practice the load curve is provided by 96 (or 24, in some cases) points

    1 http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/nuts_nomenclature/introduction

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    with assumption that during each time interval, the demand would keep constant. The following

    information would be provided by the user to specify the load variation in calculation.

    Table 4: Data specification of load curve

    LOAD CURVE DATAINDEX NAME MEANING DATA TYPE

    1 LCTIME the time in the text format including the hour and the minute

    without separation (0820 means at 20 minutes past 8, 1400

    means at 2 o’clock in the afternoon)

    Integer (+)

    2 TOTLOAD total load according to the load curve (MW) Integer (+)

    4.2.3  Threat type

    A threat type represents a class of threat events, such as storms, earthquakes, cyber attacks. They

    have an associated category (Natural, Accidental or Malicious), and units for representing the

    magnitude of events associated with the threat type. The induced risk of a threat type is calculated

    by the DSS. The field “Size” is only meant to support future extensions that take the size of a threat

    event into account.

    Table 5: Data specification of threat type

    Name Data type Length / Decimals Origin

    Threat ID ID Assigned by system

    Threat name String 16 Input

    Threat category {N,A,M} Input

    Magnitude units String 16 Input

    Size Float Input

    Induced risk* Currency 2 Risk assessment

    4.2.4  Threat event

    A threat event is characterized by a threat type (name), a location, a threat capability, and a

    frequency. The threat capability of a threat event is given according to the magnitude units specified

    with the associated threat type. The frequency is given in number of instances per year (often

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    4.2.5  Loss type

    A loss type is a class of loss events that share characteristics, for example generator malfunction or

    power line breakdown. Loss types are only meant to aggregate risk data (frequency and induced risk)

    per class of loss events.

    Table 7: Data specification of loss type

    Name Data type Length / Decimals Origin

    Loss type ID ID Assigned by system

    Loss type name String Input

    Frequency* Float 6 Frequency assessment

    Induced risk* Currency 2 Risk assessment

    4.2.6  Loss event

    Loss events represent combinations of events caused by a threat that may lead to damage to the

    system. The location of the loss event is derived from the location of the affected components

    (triggering events). The frequency and induced risk are calculated by the DSS.

    Table 8: Data specification of loss event

    Name Data type Length / Decimals Origin

    Loss event ID ID Assigned by system

    Loss type ID ID Input (foreign key)

    Longitude* Float 5 LEF assessment

    Latitude* Float 5 LEF assessment

    Region* String 4 LEF assessment

    Frequency* Float 6 LEF assessment

    Induced risk* Currency 2 Risk assessment

    4.2.7  Triggering event

    A loss event is composed of one or more triggering events. A triggering event affects only one

    component, whereas a loss event can affect more. In other words, a loss event is either one single

    triggering event or a combination of several triggering events. The network evolution module getsthe triggering events data in the affected components level and updates the network accordingly. In

    order to exert the triggering events to the network and to do the simulations of cascading failures,

    the network evolution module gets two general matrices as the triggering events input: 1) triggering

    events on buses and 2) triggering events on branches. The two matrices contain only the parameters

    which can be affected by the triggering events (Appendix B).

    In the network data matrices for almost all the elements there is a column entitled restoration time

    specifying after how long that element can be put in to use again. For example if a line is

    disconnected at 14:20 and its restoration time is 50 minutes, the line can be connected (considering

    the technical possibility) at 15:30.

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    The reference time for restoring an element is the time when it goes out of service. This can happen

    due to either loss event or protections. For those elements totally destroyed by the loss event, they

    cannot be put into use again; therefore their restoration time should be set to infinity.

    4.2.8  Vulnerability

    Vulnerability data indicates how likely a threat event is to cause an associated loss event. Based onuser-supplied vulnerability estimations, the DSS calculates the expected frequency and induced risk

    of the vulnerability.

    Table 9: Data specification of vulnerability

    Name Data type Length / Decimals Origin

    Threat event ID ID Input (foreign key)

    Loss event ID ID Input (foreign key)

    Vulnerability Float 6 InputFrequency* Float 6 LEF assessment

    Induced risk* Currency 2 Risk assessment

    4.2.9  Countermeasure

    The countermeasure along with its cost would be defined before the simulation by the users. In

    general, they can be categorized into two groups, online countermeasure and investment

    countermeasure. For each group, there would be several subsets of countermeasures; for example,

    under online countermeasures, under frequency load shedding, under voltage load shedding, etc.,

    would be provided. For some of them, if not specified by the user, the simplified ENTSO-E guidelines

    would be considered defaulted. In contrast, investment countermeasure contains a wide range of

    installation. For more information of the countermeasures that can be considered in the DSS and

    possible development in the future, please refer to the deliverable D1.4 Incident-Response System

    (IRS) of the SESAME project. As for the input of the countermeasures, one can refer to Appendix C. In

    addition, a table is maintained to store for each countermeasure the cost and the prevented risk.

    Table 10: Data specification of prevented risk of countermeasures

    Name Data type Length / Decimals Origin

    Countermeasure ID ID Input

    Investment cost Currency 2 Input

    Depreciation period Integer Input

    Operational cost Currency 2 Input

    Prevented risk* Currency 2 Countermeasure

    ranking

    Cost-effectiveness* Currency 2 Countermeasure

    ranking

    4.2.10  Network impact

    The impact of a loss event on the network, depending on the countermeasure, is represented as for

    each state in the network evolution and for each substation (bus), the unserved energy.

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    Table 11: Data specification of network impact

    Name Data type Length / Decimals Origin

    Network ID ID Input

    Loss event ID ID Input

    Countermeasure ID ID Input

    BUS_NUMBER Integer Input

    Network state ID* ID Network evolution

    Unserved energy* float 0 Network impact

    assessment

    4.2.11  Damage

    Finally, for each loss event and each countermeasure, the expected damage caused (probable loss

    magnitude) is registered.

    Table 12: Data specification of damage

    Name Data type Length / Decimals Origin

    Network ID ID Input

    Loss event ID ID Input

    Countermeasure ID ID Input

    Damage* currency 2 Damage assessment

    Induced risk* currency 2 Risk assessment

    4.3  Interfaces

    4.3.1  Interfaces between modules

    The different modules communicate via an Excel file (Excel 2007 / Office Open XML (.xlsx)). Input is

    read from the Excel file, and output is written into (possibly a different sheet) in the same file.

    Two stand-alone modules are foreseen: the network evolution module and the damage assessment

    module.

    4.3.1.1 

    Interface with network evolution moduleThe network evolution module is developed in Matlab and provides the following functionality:

      Network variants generation

      Network evolution

      Network impact assessment

    The module will be called by a wrapper that will call the module for each loss event. The module

    itself will provide iteration over all countermeasures (network variants).

    Like other modules, this module will read and write from/to an Excel file. The DSS provides to the

    network evolution module:

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    1.  The network model;

    2.  The countermeasures to be evaluated;

    3.  One selected loss event;

    4.  The load curves.

    The network evolution module provides to the DSS:

    1.  The sequence of states of the network after the loss event until restoration of power, for

    each countermeasure (including none). One state is generated per 15 minutes of simulated

    time;

    2.  The impact associated with each state, in terms of unserved energy per substation.

    4.3.1.2  Interface with damage assessment module

    The damage assessment module (Deliverable 2.i) will supply a monetary damage value (in Euros) for

    each loss event. The input to the module consists of the unserved energy per substation per system

    state after a loss event. Based on the location (region) of the substations, and the total amount ofunserved energy, the damage value is calculated.

    4.3.2  User interface

    The user interface consists of Excel input and a map interface.

    4.3.2.1  Input interface

    All user inputs discussed in the functional requirements can be provided by the user in the input

    Excel file. This includes selection of threats, loss events, and countermeasures, by means of

    checkboxes. The user can press a button to start the simulation.

    4.3.2.2 

    Map interfaceThe system should provide an interface where the different components are shown on a map. The

    map will be generated after the user presses a button. After assessment of the threats to the original

    network, risk values are shown for the original network. The map interface should visually represent

    the possible countermeasures. Upon clicking on one of the countermeasures, the resulting risk

    values are updated. When clicking the same countermeasure again, the original values are restored.

    The user can also ask for a visual representation of the development of a blackout, based on the

    generated sequence of snapshots.

    4.4  Modules and algorithms

    This section informally describes the algorithms to be used in implementing the different modules.For formulas to be implemented in Excel, mathematical notation is used. This section also specifies

    the data fields to be filled by each function.

    4.4.1  Threat selection

    The relevant threats can be entered and (de-)selected in the Excel file.

      A sheet in the input Excel file containing threat type data

      A sheet in the input Excel file containing the possible threat magnitudes for each threat

    type, and frequencies per region (threat event  data)

      Checkboxes occurring with the threats in the threat types sheet. Threats of which thecheckboxes have been checked are considered selected.

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    4.4.2  Loss event selection

    The relevant loss events can be entered and (de-)selected in the Excel file.

      A sheet in the input Excel file containing loss event  data

      Checkboxes occurring with the loss events in the sheet, only available when the

    corresponding threats have been selected in the threat types sheet. If no threat has been

    selected, all loss events are eligible for selection.

    To assist the user in selecting relevant loss events, a module external to the DSS will be developed in

    the project. This module uses the project’s results on topological analysis to identify components

    that are most likely to cause problems upon failure. The user can then enter subsets of these

    components as relevant loss events.

    The structural vulnerability detection module takes the same input as the IRS and extracts

    topological information and electrical engineering parameters to form a network model exclusively

    used for topological analysis. An extended topological method by introducing some electricalengineering specificity into complex networks approach would be implemented in order to

    effectively explore the structural property and analyze vulnerability of power systems from a

    topological perspective.

    Firstly, electrical engineering specificity such as line impedance, line flow limit is introduced into

    degree metrics of traditional graph theory to examine the connectivity of each bus in power grids. In

    the meantime, in order to distinguish the centrality of buses, entropy degree is proposed to check

    the connectivity of bus more comprehensively. It is showed that the proposed metrics incorporating

    electrical features are more suitably analyzing the structural characteristics of power systems as a

    complex system and more useful to identify the importance of buses.

    Aiming at analyzing static robustness of power grids, electrical betweenness is proposed by

    introducing transmission capacity and power transfer distribution factors into betweenness centrality

    which is a metric to measure the importance of a vertex or an edge in network. It is confirmed that

    electrical betweenness is superior to purely topological betweenness in analyzing the criticality of

    components in power grids. The criticality of components (buses and lines) in a power grid can be

    identified more efficiently using electrical betweenness metric.

    The general goal of a power grid is the feasible and economic transmission of power from generation

    buses to load buses. Therefore, in order to evaluate the performance of a power network from a

    global perspective of view, net-ability in consideration of engineering features like transmission

    capacity and line impedance is proposed to replace the efficiency metric in pure topological method.

    Net-ability measures the ability of a power grid to perform properly its function; the possibility to

    perform its function properly depends on the maximum (real or apparent) line flow limits (transfer

    arbitrary amounts of power) and on the impedance of the lines (economic and technical

    convenience).

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    The output would be a set of metrics (listed in the following tables) associated with the system or a

    single element. By ranking them, the user would get information of the criticality of the elements in

    terms of their vulnerability from structural point of view.

    DEGREEINDEX NAME MEANING DATA TYPE

    1 CON_DEGREE conventional degree of the node Integer (+)

    2 CON_DEGREE_IND corresponding node ID of conventional degree Integer (+)

    3 WEIGHTED_DEGREE weighted degree of the node Integer (+)

    4 WEIGHTED_DEGREE_IND corresponding node ID of weighted degree Integer (+)

    5 ENTROPY_DEGREE entropy degree of the node Float (+)

    6 ENTROPY_DEGREE_IND corresponding node ID of entropy degree Integer (+)

    NODE_BETWEENNESSINDEX NAME MEANING DATA TYPE

    1 NODE_BETW extended betweenness of the node Float (+)

    2 NODE_BETW_IND corresponding node ID Integer (+)

    EDGE_BETWEENNESS

    INDEX NAME MEANING DATA TYPE

    1 EDGE_BETW extended betweenness of the edge Float (+)

    2 EDGE_BETW_IND corresponding edge ID Integer (+)

    NET-ABILITY

    INDEX NAME MEANING DATA TYPE

    1 E the net-ability of the whole network, scalar data Float (+)

    NODE NET-ABILITY

    INDEX NAME MEANING DATA TYPE1 E_FAILURE_NODE the relative drop of the net-ability after removing

    bus

    Float (-)

    2 E_NODE normalized E_failure_node by E Float (-)

    3 E_NODE_IND corresponding bus ID Integer (+)

    EDGE NET-ABILITY

    INDEX NAME MEANING DATA TYPE

    1 E_FAILURE_EDGE the relative drop of the net-ability after removing branch Float (-)

    2 E_EDGE normalized E_failure_edge by E Float (-)

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    3 E_EDGE_IND corresponding edge ID Integer (+)

    One can refer to the Deliverable D1.3 for more technical information.

    4.4.3  Countermeasure selectionThe relevant countermeasures can be entered and (de-)selected in the Excel file.

      A sheet in the input Excel file containing countermeasure data, as well as the threats they

    aim to protect against

      Checkboxes occurring with the countermeasures in the sheet, only available when the

    corresponding threats have been selected in the threat types sheet

    4.4.4  Vulnerability assessment

    For each combination of threat event and loss event, the user can indicate in the Excel file how likely

    the threat event is to cause the loss event. For example, the user can indicate that, when a storm of

    magnitude 10 occurs, there is a 0.5 probability that the power line between A and B breaks down. If

    desired, the user can use vulnerability functions to calculate the vulnerability automatically in Excel

    based on the threat magnitude. These are external to the DSS.

    This function will not alter any data unless the user applies vulnerability functions within the input

    Excel sheet.

    4.4.5  Threat event frequency assessment

    The expected frequency / capability distribution of the selected threats is assessed, based on the

    geographical location of the network and its components. The frequencies are denoted TEF(t,m,c),

    where t  is the threat, m is the threat capability/magnitude, and c is the affected component (loss

    event). The output is a number of events per year.

    In the prototype, assessment of frequency data for component locations is external to the system,

    and data need to be supplied by the user. The user is expected to enter frequency data per region. As

    network components are also associated with a region, this provides a 1-to-1 mapping between

    threat frequencies and potentially affected components.

    Vulnerability functions are associated with threat types and loss types. The vulnerability

    function specifies the relation between the threat capability and the vulnerability (likelihood of

    a loss event caused by the threat event). For example, a vulnerability function may specify for

    each earthquake magnitude the likelihood of breakdown of a certain type of generator. This

    input is specified by the user. The vulnerability is independent of the component location; only

    the threat frequencies for different classes of the threat (e.g. earthquake classes) are associated

    with the location.

    Vulnerability is represented as a function V(t,m,c), where t is a threat type, m is a threat

    capability (magnitude), and c is a loss event. The output of the vulnerability function is a

    likelihood (a real number in the interval [0..1]). The SESAME DSS will not  supply vulnerability

    functions.

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    This function will not alter any data unless the user applies her own calculations in the input Excel

    sheet.

    4.4.6  Loss event frequency assessment

    Using the vulnerability information of the components V(t,m,c) and the threat frequencies of the

    threats TEF(t,m,c), a loss event frequency is calculated for each loss event. The frequency is

    calculated both per threat (LEF(t,c)) and cumulative (LEF(c)).

    First of all, the location of the loss event is determined based on the location of the affected

    components. The longitude and latitude will be the center of the affected components; the region

    will be the region in which most affected components are located.

    It is assumed that threats are independent, and that loss events due to different threats do not occur

    simultaneously. This assumption could be lifted in future research, when dependencies between

    threats and loss events are modeled.

    In math:

    ( ) ∑() ( )

     

    () ∑()

     

    The loss event frequencies are again represented as numbers of events per year.

    This function uses the threat event and vulnerability  data, and fills the fields Longitude*, Latitude*,

    Region*, and Frequency* in the loss event  data.

    4.4.7  Network variants generation

    The system will generate different variants of the network, with different countermeasures

    implemented. This function is performed in the Matlab module that takes care of the network

    evolution (here called IRS). A wrapper function is foreseen that calls the Matlab module for each loss

    event. The Matlab module itself will take care of evaluating the network state sequence after this

    loss event for each countermeasure. The module will also calculate the unserved energy per

    substation per state in the sequence.

    The user needs to determine how threat frequencies for known locations are mapped to threat

    frequencies for regions. Here, a suggested approach is presented, using only geographical

    proximity as an indicator for comparable locations. Several algorithms are available to

    interpolate the data in this case. In the simplest solution, only data from the one closest known

    location are used. In a more advanced solution, multiple data points are combined.

    1

     Thesuggested choice is Inverse Distance Weighting with a limited set of points (n points), using

    anisotropy correction. As said, these calculations are not part of the DSS.

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    Figure 8 shows the procedures of how to generate different system variants. For each loss event (a

    combination of triggering events (bearing the same triggering event ID)), the upper wrapper would

    call the IRS to evaluate all the considered countermeasures (with the same countermeasure ID).

    4.4.8  Network evolution

    A Matlab module will read the Excel file, and will calculate the final network state for one selectedloss event, for each countermeasure. This module is discussed in detail in D1.4 Incident-response

    system.

    Regardless of the threat ID, loss event ID and triggering event ID, the simulator considers all the

    modifications provided by the loss event data (Appendix B). For instance, a generator on bus 67 was

    destroyed, then this generator’s status will be set to “0” and the two concerning restoration time will

    be set to infinite (or a really large number); and if at the same time, the protection systems of the

    loads on the same bus do not work anymore, the user (or triggering events simulator (TES)) needs to

    go to another row to set the status of the load protection relays to “1” (which means the relays

    activation is blocked).1 

    In other words, each line only accepts the modification to a single element. Also, the user ((TES))

    needs to remember that the modification to the same parameter more than once, only the last

    modification would actually affect.

    In some situation, when a threat happens, there may be several different possible loss events for the

    user to consider. In other words, the user may be interested in simulate different consequences from

    the same threat. For example a flood may destroy some generators and transmission lines which are

    called “loss events 1”; meanwhile, the same flood may cause damages to some buses in the system,

    called “loss event 2”. When such damages are translated technically in order to be exerted to the power system, they are called: “triggering events”. Such technical details can be easily set in

    appropriate columns and then the Incident-Response System (IRS) modifies the system accordingly

    (Figure 9).

    1 Since the matrices are given to the simulator in MATLAB format, the blank cells must be set as “NaN”. 

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    Figure 8: IRS Calling sequence from external wrapper

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    Figure 9: IRS input from triggering events side

    Thus whenever the IRS is called, it will get one file including one loss event and other associated

    network elements and countermeasures; then it will modify the whole system accordingly.

    Obviously, each time, the IRS handles with one loss event. In other words, the number of the IRS

    being called is equal to the number of loss events.

    This function uses the loss event / triggering event , network , and countermeasure data, and creates 

    snapshots of the network after the loss events. These snapshots are then used in the network impact

    assessment.

    4.4.9  Network impact assessment

    Based on the sequence of network snapshots S(c,N), the impact of the loss event on the network

    I(c,N) is calculated. This is represented as for each state in the sequence the unserved power persubstation. This procedure is repeated for each network variant (countermeasure).

    Threats, loss events and corresponding triggering events in 2 general data matrices for buses

    and branches (in 2 excel sheets with the proposed format)

    Organise loss events with their Ids, each of which is going to be

    adopted by the IRS once at a time.

    Add two Matlab matrices (bus and branch

    triggering events for a single loss vent) to the

    input file

    IRS updates the network according to

    the given file to simulate the cascading

    failures and etc.

    Call IRS 

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    As the simulation runs, several system snapshots will be given for assessment purpose. As targeted

    to minimize the un-served energy and accelerate the restoration of loss power, the IRS would give

    the unserved energy during the time interval of two snapshots substation by substation.

    As only total load curve is available, the (forecasted) load would vary in the same proportion as the

    total load.

    This function uses the network snapshots and the bus location data, and fills the network impact  

    data.

    4.4.10  Damage assessment

    The system calculates the expected damage D(c,N) of the blackout that occurs after loss event c,

    based on the impact I(c,N). The procedure will be devised by WP2, and we refer to the forthcoming

    deliverable D2.1 for details. This procedure receives as input the unserved energy per substation per

    state after the loss event. The output is the damage represented in euros. Again, this is done for each

    network variant.

    This function uses the network impact data, and fills the damage data.

    4.4.11  Risk assessment

    The frequency and damage information is used to calculate the risk for the selected threats in

    combination with all the possible network variants.

    The system uses frequency and impact data to calculate the risk induced in the network by each

    threat, as the product of the loss event frequency for the triggering event, and the damage caused by

    the triggering event. The risk is denoted R(t,c,N) when specified per loss event and R(t,N) when

    aggregated for all loss events caused by the threat. The aggregated risk for one loss event due to allthreats is denoted R(c,N). 

    ( ) ( ) () 

    ( ) ∑()

     

    ( ) ∑()

     

    Risk values are represented as euros per year.

    This function uses the threat type, loss event and damage data, and fills the field Induced risk* in the

    damage, loss event , vulnerability , threat event , and threat type data.

    4.4.12  Threat ranking

    The threats are ranked according to the associated risk R(t,N).

    4.4.13  Countermeasure ranking

    For each countermeasure (network variant) N’ , the difference between the risk in the system with

    the countermeasure and the risk in the system without the countermeasure is calculated. The

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    difference is called the prevented risk and is denoted PR(N,N’). This difference includes all threats for

    which the risk is reduced by the countermeasure.

    ( ) ∑ ( ) ∑ ()

     

    The cost-effectiveness of a countermeasure is the difference between its cost per year (C) and the

    prevented risk.

    ( ) ( ) ( ) Cost-effectiveness is represented in euros per year. The countermeasures can be ranked according to

    (a) the prevented risk, and (b) their cost-effectiveness.

    This function uses the damage data, and fills the fields Prevented risk* and Cost-effectiveness* in the

    countermeasure data.

    Countermeasures are then ranked according to prevented risk and/or cost-effectiveness.

    4.4.14  Map generation

    The user can click a button to generate a map of the network. The user can click on map items to get

    more information. Threat, countermeasures, and network evolution snapshots will be selected in

    Excel cells and the corresponding network status will be shown in the map component, in particular

    in terms of on/off status of network elements and unserved energy. The mapping component will

    allow showing different levels of detail, zoom, moving through the network and showing basic

    elements properties and affected areas. The user can click on map items to get more information.

    4.5  Optimization strategies

    The network dynamics module, written in Matlab, has to be called for each loss event. This module

    produces a sequence of network states after the event, which is a complex and time-intensive

    calculation. Furthermore, this calculation has to be repeated for each countermeasure considered.

    Therefore, the user is expected to select a typical loss event associated with a threat. Evaluating all

    possible loss events associated with a threat would take prohibitively long. For the same reason, if a

    loss event consists of multiple triggering events, all triggering events are assumed to happen

    simultaneously.

    4.6  Interdependencies

    The implementation of the DSS is dependent on the damage assessment module (D2.i), which is

    expected in April 2013.

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    5  Prototype choices

    5.1  Prototype threats

    For the prototype of the system, we choose to focus on the following threats:

    1.  Ice/snow storms (natural)2.  Nuclear incidents (accidental)

    3.  Cyber attacks (intentional)

    5.2  Prototype functionality

    The following functionality is limited in the prototype:

    1.  All network, threat, loss and countermeasure data should be provided by the user in an Excel

    file. This includes a load curve of the expected loads. The format of this file will be

    determined in by the implementation, based on the data models outlined in this document.

    Documentation and templates will be provided.2.  Countermeasures will need to be network-specific. The prototype will not assist in mapping

    generic countermeasures to concrete implementations.

    3.  Only discrete threat data are supported. Each threat level (e.g. earthquake magnitude) needs

    to be listed as a separate threat.

    4.  Vulnerability functions (mapping threat capability to vulnerability) are not considered part of

    the DSS. The user can still use such functions, by supplying the function in the associated

    Excel cells, thereby enabling automatic calculation of the vulnerabilities for the different

    threat capability levels. The vulnerability function will determine the contents of the

    vulnerability cells for a particular threat type (e.g. earthquake).

    5.  Dependencies between threats (e.g. simultaneous volcanic eruption and earthquakes) and

    between loss events (multiple loss events due to same threat) are not calculated

    automatically.

    6.  The DSS does not support new vulnerabilities or loss events introduced by the

    countermeasures.

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    6  Conclusions and recommendationsThis document provides the system specification for the SESAME decision support system. The goal

    of the DSS is supporting decisions on investment in the security of transmission grids.

    A risk management framework has been devised, following the Risk Taxonomy of The Open Group,

    to serve as a basis for the decision support system. The ranking of threats is based on their induced

    risk, and the ranking of countermeasures on their prevented risk. Interfaces have been defined

    between the central system and the network simulation (Polito) and damage assessment (EI-JKU)

    modules. A flowchart of the system was constructed and refined to the level of individual system

    modules and algorithms. For all relevant interfaces, the data fields have been specified. Optimisation

    strategies have been defined in order to limit the number of calls to computation-intensive modules.

    This report represents the current state of knowledge within the SESAME project. Based on this

    report, the DSS will be implemented in Work Package 5, and used in case studies in Work Packages 6

    and 7. When results of these activities lead to new insights in requirements or architectures, the DSS

    specification may need to be revised. This report also leaves room for future extensions to the DSS,

    notably in terms of automatic calculation of parameters that are currently foreseen to be entered

    manually.

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     Appendix A: Network data

    When the data type is in red, the field is mandatory. When it is purple, it is optional. When is it blue,

    it is not related to the calculations (e.g. a name).

    SIMULATION PARAMETERS

    INDEX NAME MEANING DATA TYPE

    1 MAN_INITIME  Human decision initiating time (min) Integer (+)1 

    2 EACHPF_TIME Time interval for each PF calculation (min) Integer (+)

    3 EACHOPF_TIME Time interval for each OPF calculation (min) Integer (+)

    4 SIM_ENDTIME Simulation End Time (min) Integer (+)

    5 LOSSDATE Date of Loss Event (YYYY/MM/DD) YYYY/MM/DD 

    6 LOSSTIME Time of Loss Event (the time in the text format includingthe hour and the minute without separation (0820

    means at 20 minutes past 8, 1400 means at 2 o’clock in

    the afternoon))

    Integer (+)

    SYSTEM BASE

    INDEX NAME MEANING DATA TYPE

    1 BASE_MW  Base MW Integer (+)

    2 REF_FREQ Reference Frequency (Hz) Integer (+)

    3 KRS Whole system power frequency characteristic (MW/Hz) Float (+)

    GENERATOR DATA INPUT

    INDEX NAME MEANING DATA TYPE

    1 BUS_NAME bus name String2 

    2 BUS_NUMBER bus number Integer (+)

    3 ID Id number of the generator on this bus Integer (+)

    4 GEN_STATUS status, (1)- in service, (0) - out of service Boolean

    5 GEN_MW Pg, real power output (MW) Float (+)

    6 GEN_MVAR Qg, reactive power output (MVAr) Float (+/-)

    7 SET_VOLT Vg, voltage magnitude setpoint (p.u.) Float (+)8 AGC Status of AGC, (1)- in service, (0) - out of service Boolean

    9 AVR Status of AVR, (1)- in service, (0) - out of service Boolean

    10 BLK_STRT Flag for black start Boolean

    11 MIN_MW Pmin, operational minimum real power output(MW)

    Float (+)

    12 MAX_MW Pmax, operational maximum real power output(MW)

    Float (+)

    13 MIN_MVAR Qmin, operational minimum reactive power output(MVAr)

    Float (+/-)

    1 Red color emphasizes that the corresponding parameter must be provided. Otherwise the simulation cannot

    be run.2 Blue color shows the parameters or information which should not pass to the IRS.

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    14 MAX_MVAR Qmax, operational maximum reactive power output(MVAr)

    Float (+/-)

    15 REG_BAND regulated band (MW) Float (+)

    16 SCH_POWER Scheduled point (MW) Float (+)

    17 MBASE MBase, total MVA base of machine, defaults tobaseMVA

    Float (+)

    18 PC1 Pc1, lower real power output of PQ capability curve(MW)

    Float (+)1 

    19 PC2 Pc2, upper real power output of PQ capability curve(MW)

    Float (+)2 

    20 QC1MIN Qc1min, minimum reactive power output at Pc1(MVAr)

    Float (+/-) 

    21 QC1MAX Qc1max, maximum reactive power output at Pc1(MVAr)

    Float (+/-) 

    22 QC2MIN Qc2min, minimum reactive power output at Pc2(MVAr)

    Float (+/-) 

    23 QC2MAX Qc2max, maximum reactive power output at Pc2(MVAr)

    Float (+/-) 

    24 RAMP_AGC ramp rate for load following/AGC (MW/min) Float (+)

    25 RAMP_10 ramp rate for 10 minute reserves (MW) Float (+) 

    26 RAMP_30 ramp rate for 30 minute reserves (MW) Float (+) 

    27 RAMP_Q ramp rate for reactive power (2 sec timescale)(MVAr/min)

    Float (+) 

    28 KG drop of the generation (MW/Hz) Float (+)

    29 SEC_BAND reserved power for secondary control (MW)  Float (+)

    30 EQUI_COEFF an equivalent index to define the P-Q capacity ofthe generator (1-1.14)

    Float (+) 

    31 PRIORITY starting priority in case of black start in an island Integer (+)

    32 OF over frequency protection limit (Hz) Float (+)

    33 UF under frequency protection limit (Hz) Float (+)

    34 OV over voltage protection limit (p.u.) Float (+)

    35 UV under voltage protection limit (p.u.) Float (+)

    36 OV_DELAY over voltage protection delay time (min) Integer (+)

    37 UV_DELAY under voltage protection delay time (min) Integer (+)

    38 FREQ_BLOCK frequency protection status, (0)- in service, (1) - outof service

    Boolean

    39 VOLT_BLOCK voltage protection status, (0)- in service, (1) - out ofservice

    Boolean

    40 HOT_STIME Hot Starting Time (min) Integer (+)

    41 COLD_STIME Cold Starting Time (min) Integer (+)

    42 OPER_COST operational cost (€/MW) Float (+)

    43 RESERVE_COST cost of generating the reserved power (€/MW) Float (+)

    44 HOTRSTR_COST restoration cost specifying how much it cost to beput into use again as hot (€) 

    Float (+)

    45 COLDRSTR_COST restoration cost specifying how much it cost to be Float (+)

    1 Purple means not necessary data; if the corresponding parameters are defined, the IRS can consider them in

    the calculations. (Not provided cells must be filled by “NaN”) 2 For columns number 18 to 23 and 30 there are 4 possible situations among which one must be seen:

    a)  All the parameters under 18 – 23 and 30 on a row are “NaN”, 

    b)  Parameters under 18 – 23 on a row have values and 30 is “NaN”,

    c)  Parameters under 18 – 23 on a row are “NaN” and 30 has value, 

    d)  All the parameters under 18 – 23 and 30 on a row have values; in this case we consider it the same as b.

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    put into use again when it is cold (€) 

    BUS DATA INPUT

    INDEX NAME MEANING DATA TYPE

    1 BUS_NAME Bus name String 

    2 BUS_NUMBER bus number (positive integer) Integer (+) 3 BUS_TYPE bus type (1 = PQ, 2 = PV, 3 = ref, 4 = isolated) Integer (+) 

    4 BUS_STATUS bus status, 1 in service, 0 out-of-service Boolean

    5 BUS_AREA area number, (positive integer) Integer (+) 

    6 VM Vm, voltage magnitude (p.u.) Float (+) 

    7 VA Va, voltage angle (degrees) Float (+) 

    8 BASE_KV baseKV, base voltage (kV) Float (+) 

    9 VMAX maxVm, maximum voltage magnitude (p.u.) Float (+) 

    10 VMIN minVm, minimum voltage magnitude (p.u.) Float (+) 

    11 RSTR_TIME restoration time specifying after how long it can be put intouse again (min)

    Integer (+) 

    12 RSTR_COST restoration cost specifying how much it cost to be put intouse again (€) 

    Float (+) 

    LOAD DATA INPUT

    INDEX NAME MEANING DATA TYPE

    1 BUS_NAME bus name String 

    2 BUS_NUMBER bus number (positive integer) Integer (+) 

    3 STATUS load status, 1 consuming, 0 disconnected Boolean

    4 PD Pd, real power demand (MW) Float (+) 

    5 QD Qd, reactive power demand (MVAr) Float (+) 

    6 GS Gs, shunt conductance (MW demanded at V = 1.0 p.u.) Float (+) 

    7 BS Bs, shunt susceptance (MVAr injected at V = 1.0 p.u.) Float (+) 

    8 INTRUPTIBLE percentage of un-prioritized load, which can be shed underemergency (%)

    Integer (+) 

    9 SHED_MAX maximum percentage of shed load regardless ofregulations (%)

    Integer (+) 

    10 OV over voltage protection limit (p.u.) Float (+) 

    11 UV under voltage protection limit (p.u.) Float (+) 

    12 OV_DELAY over voltage protection delay time (min) Integer (+) 

    13 UV_DELAY under voltage protection delay time (min) Integer (+) 

    14 OV_BLOCK over voltage protection relay status, (0)- in service, (1) -out of service

    Boolean 

    15 UV_BLOCK under voltage protection relay status, (0)- in service, (1) -out of service

    Boolean 

    16 RSTR_TIME restoration time specifying after how long it can be put intouse again (min)

    Integer (+) 

    17 INTRPT_COST Cost of shedding interruptible loads (€/MW) Float (+) 

    18 SHED_COST Cost of shedding shedable loads (€/MW) Float (+) 

    19 RSTR_COST restoration cost specifying how much it cost to be put intouse again (€) 

    Float (+) 

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    CAPACITOR/CONDUCTOR BANK DATA INPUT

    INDEX NAME MEANING DATA TYPE

    1 BUS_NAME bus name String 

    2 BUS_NUMBER bus number (positive integer) Integer (+) 

    3 BANK_ID The ID of this bank on this bus Integer (+)4 STATUS bank status, 1 in service, 0 out-of-service Boolean

    5 CPNUM_STEPS current number of steps (capacitors) Integer (+) 

    6 REACTIVE_STEP reactive power of each step (MVar) (capacitors) Float (+) 

    7 MAXNO_STEPS maximum number of steps (capacitors) Integer (+) 

    8 CNNUM_STEPS current number of steps (in conductors) Integer (+) 

    9 ACTIVE_STEP active power of each step (MW) (in conductors) Float (+) 

    10 MAX_STEPS maximum number of steps (in conductors) Integer (+) 

    11 OV over voltage protection limit (p.u.) Float (+) 

    12 UV under voltage protection limit (p.u.) Float (+) 

    13 OV_DELAY over voltage protection delay time (min) Integer (+) 

    14 UV_DELAY under voltage protection delay time (min) Integer (+) 

    15 PROT_OPERSTS protection relay status, (0)- in service, (1) - out of service Boolean 

    16RSTR_TIME restoration time specifying after how long it can be put

    into use again (min)

    Integer (+) 

    17RSTR_COST restoration cost specifying how much it cost to be put

    into use again (€) 

    Float (+) 

    LINE DATA INPUT

    INDEX NAME MEANING DATA TYPE

    1 FROM_NUMBER f, from bus number Integer (+) 

    2 FROM_NAME f, from bus name String 

    3 TO_NUMBER t, to bus number Integer (+) 

    4 TO_NAME t, to bus name String 

    5 CIRCUIT number of line circuit (positive integer) Integer (+) 

    6 STATUS line status, 1 - in service, 0 - out of service Boolean 

    7 R r, resistance (p.u.) Float (+) 

    8 X x, reactance (p.u.) Float (+) 

    9 B b, total line charging susceptance (p.u.) Float (+) 

    10 LIMA_MVA rateA, MVA rating A (long term rating) Float (+) 

    11 LIMB_MVArateB, MVA rating B (short term rating) Float (+) 

    12 LIMC_MVA rateC, MVA rating C (emergency rating) Float (+) 

    13 PROT_TIMEDELAY over current protection delay time (min) Integer (+) 

    14 PROT_OPERSTAT over current protection relay status, (0)- in service,(1) - out of service

    Boolean 

    15 RSTR_TIME restoration time specifying after how long it can beput into use again (min)

    Integer (+) 

    16 RSTR_COST restoration cost specifying how much it cost to be putinto use again (€) 

    Float (+) 

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    DC LINE DATA INPUT

    INDEX NAME MEANING DATA TYPE

    1 FROM_NUMBER f, from bus number Integer (+) 

    2 FROM_NAME f, from bus name String 

    3 TO_NUMBER t, to bus number Integer (+) 4 TO_NAME t, to bus name String 

    5 CIRCUIT number of line circuit (positive integer) Integer (+) 

    6 STATUS DC line status, 1 - in service, 0 - out of service Boolean 

    7 LOSS0 coefficient l0 of constant term of linear loss function(MW)

    Float (+) 

    8 LOSS1 coefficient l1 of linear term of linear loss function(MW/MW)

    (ploss = l0 + l1pf , where pf is the flow at the \from" end)

    Float (+) 

    9 R r, resistance (p.u.) Float (+) 

    10 X x, reactance (p.u.) Float (+) 

    11 B b, total line charging susceptance (p.u.) Float (+) 12 PF real power flow at “from" bus end (MW), “from" → “to"  Float (+/-) 

    13 PT real power flow at “to" bus end (MW), “from" → “to"  Float (+/-) 

    14 QF reactive power injected at "from" bus end (MVAr) Float (+/-) 

    15 QT reactive power injected at "to" bus end (MVAr) Float (+/-) 

    16 VF voltage magnitude setpoint at “from" bus (p.u.)   Float (+) 

    17 VT voltage magnitude setpoint at “to" bus (p.u.)  Float (+) 

    18 PMIN if positive (negative), lower limit on PF (PT) Float (+/-) 

    19 PMAX if positive (negative), upper limit on PF (PT) Float (+/-) 

    20 QMINF lower limit on reactive power injection into “from" bus(MVAr)

    Float (+/-) 

    21 QMAXF upper limit on reactive power injection into \from" bus(MVAr)

    Float (+/-) 

    22 QMINT lower limit on reactive power injection