d1407: enrollment management: a game of trade-offs, compromises, and occasional victories paul...
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D1407: Enrollment Management: A Game of Trade-Offs, Compromises, and Occasional Victories
Paul Hamborg, Enrollment Research Associates, TXBambi Burgard, Kansas City Art Institute, MOChristopher Ellertson, Trinity University, TXMichael Thorp, Millsaps College, MS
Change in Consumer Behavior
From 2000 to 2008:
• The household savings rate dipped below zero
• Median family income stagnated
• The consumer price index increased 27%
• Private college tuition increased 57%
Since 2008:
• Willingness and ability to borrow has decreased dramatically
• Current income is now the primary source for paying for
college
Family Financial Circumstances
Family 1: $6,000 EFC
Family 2: $13,000 EFC
Family 3: $22,000 EFC
Family 4: $36,000 EFC
Annual Wages $70,000 $100,000 $135,000 $175,000
Monthly Net Income $4,270 $5,873 $7,605 $9,500
Housing Costs $2,255 $2,695 $3,179 $3,600
Transportation Costs $575 $950 $1,550 $1,550
General Expenses $1,485 $2,160 $2,735 $2,835
Total Expenses $4,315 $5,805 $7,464 $7,985
Net Income/Loss -$45 $68 $141 $1,515
What Happened in 2009?A Study of 902 Private Colleges
2008 2009 Change
Students 454,969 458,831 3,862 0.85% increase
Average Tuition $24,122 $25,177 $1,055 4.37% increase
Discount 38.6% 41.3% 2.7%
Net Revenue $14,397 $14,497 $38
Changes to the FAFSA in 2009
As part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act passed on February 17, 2009, the Department of Education dramatically increased
eligibility for federal Pell Grants
This goal was achieved in several important ways:
• Expanding Pell to a year-round program where students can draw grants for summer study
• Expanding eligibility for Pell by adjusting the underlying formulas that determine a student’s Expected Family Contribution
• A slight increase in the maximum Pell award and in the EFC cut-off value
What Happened in 2009?A Study of 902 Private Colleges
2008 2009 Change
Pell grants 106,797 133,811 27,014 25.2% increase
Percent with Pell 23.5% 29.2% 5.7%
Pell Amount $366,258,257 $543,099,737 $176,841,480 48.3% increase
Student Cost $11,750 $11,398 -$352 3.0% decrease
Merit Scholarships Versus Need-Based Aid
• Most merit-based scholarships contribute toward meeting student need as defined by the FAFSA
• We have a valid and reliable measure of academic profile, while we do not have a valid and reliable measure of need
• Actual need versus perceived need has become a more significant issue
2009 2010 2011
New Students 282 214 228
Tuition $26,240 $27,814 $29,482
Net Revenue Per Student $5,934 $8,064 $10,323
Discount Rate 77.4% 71.0% 65.3%
Average ACT 25.4 26.5 26.4
One-Year Retention Rate 76% 88% -
Millsaps College Enrollment Results, 2009 - 2011
Question 1
Enrollment management has become increasingly data driven over the past decade.
How have each of you integrated data-driven decision making into your admissions and financial aid
operations?
Question 2
Approaches to conducting search and managing prospect and inquiry pools has been evolving rapidly over the past
few years.
What tactics are each of you taking to increase the number of applicants who have a strong likelihood
of attending your institution?